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1.
Physical mechanisms for the annual evolution of special continental-scale seasonal anomalies in the tropospheric temperature and the general atmospheric circulation are described. The relationship between large negative tropospheric temperature anomalies over the continents in winter and positive temperature anomalies in the subsequent summer is explained. It is shown that large winter negative anomalies over the continents can possibly stabilize the climatic annual cycle. A general process that can trigger the mechanism regulating the annual cycle by means of continental-scale tropospheric temperature anomalies is the equalizing of the temperature anomalies over the continents and the oceans. In turn, the latter phenomenon can happen when the low-frequency variability of intensifying planetary waves generates extreme events on a hemispheric scale.  相似文献   

2.
This paper studies the causes and mechanisms of the formation of extreme anomalies in the tropospheric temperature associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Our approach is based on understanding that, in the annual cycle, continental-scale tropospheric temperature anomalies (planetary waves with longitudinal wave numbers of 1–3) can both intensify under the direct action of heat inflow as an energy source for these anomalies (radiation cooling/heating) and weaken as a result of the destructive action of heat inflow under temperature advections with the opposite (to the heat inflow) sign [4, 5]. According to the monthly mean data of the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis over the 40-year period, seasonal air temperature anomalies have been studied at the level 850 hPa (T 850) in different regions of Eurasia. It has been confirmed that the negative NAO phase in winter is favorable for preserving negative T 850 anomalies in the east of the continent at this time of year, whereas the positive NAO phase is favorable for negative T 850 anomalies in the west. However, it has been revealed that this dependence was critically violated during the winter seasons approximately two years before an extreme event. This was explained by the fact that, in those years, the NAO influence on winter T 850 anomalies was limited. This paper formally considers a certain mechanism of anomalous heat inflow as an energy source for these anomalies with functions of the formation (intensification) of negative T 850 anomalies in winter and positive T 850 anomalies in summer, as well as with a function of the limitation of the influence of the predominant dynamic mode on some regions of the continent. It is shown that, in the 1960s, T 850 anomalies with negative NAO indices in the east of the continent were governed by a hypothetic mechanism of heat inflow as an energy source for anomalies; in 1980s, at prolonged positive NAO indices, T 850 anomalies in the west of the continent could also be governed by this mechanism. This paper, within the accepted degree of detail, demonstrates the process of limitation of the NAO influence in some years (1966, 1967, 1987, and 1988), which leads to an unbalance of the anomalies and a possible extreme phenomenon. It is demonstrated that, in some seasons, the anomalies were not governed by the hypothetic mechanism of the heat inflow under the action of large NAO changes and a complete upset of the annual cycle of anomalies. Determining the first indicators of the unbalance, which can lead to extreme anomalies, is shown to be difficult if it is based only on an analysis of winter seasons (as is the case with most of the works) without invoking the annual trends of the tropospheric temperature and the NAO index.  相似文献   

3.
气温的天气和气候记忆性特征分析对于提高气候预测水平具有积极意义。利用济南和青岛1961—2020 年逐日、月和年平均气温资料,运用自相关性函数和标准化频率分布分析了上述时间序列的气温记忆性特征和概率分布特征,并利用结构函数法建立了月、年平均气温距平与日平均气温距平之间的分数阶导数关系。结果表明:(1)济南和青岛的月、年平均气温距平呈现不同程度的记忆性特征,其中年平均气温距平相比于月平均气温距平具有更好的记忆性。(2)济南和青岛的月、年平均气温距平与日平均气温距平之间存在分数阶导数关系,济南和青岛相应的月、年尺度阶数分别为0. 529、0. 665 和0. 553、0. 791,两地的月尺度阶数相近,但青岛略大,青岛的年尺度阶数大于济南,即青岛月和年平均气温距平的记忆性大于济南。(3)济南和青岛的月和年平均气温距平相比于日平均气温距平有不同程度的长尾特征,长尾特征反映了极值温度发生的概率。  相似文献   

4.
SST年循环对El Niño事件局地海气过程的影响   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2       下载免费PDF全文
利用Hadley中心逐月海表温度、欧洲中心ERA-40的10 m风场及CMAP降水资料探讨了年循环对热带太平洋El Niño海气相互作用过程的影响。尽管El Niño对应的海表温度异常主要出现在赤道东太平洋,经向上呈南北对称分布,然而其对应的大气响应在El Niño年衰减阶段却有着强的向南移动特征。在El Niño发展年的11月之前,强的西风和降水异常主要出现在赤道中太平洋;在12月份之后,赤道上的西风和降水异常迅速南移至5°S,随后西风一直维持在该位置直至衰亡。同时,西太平洋负降水和反气旋异常向北移动。这种SST异常与其大气响应的经向移动不一致,主要是由热带中太平洋气候态SST的季节性南移导致的。由于对流与海温之间存在非线性关系,即当总SST超过一定的阈值,对流降水才会迅速增强;因此相应的对流响应也随着总海温的南移而南移,风场响应也同时南移。此外,南半球增强的对流会通过经向环流进一步抑制北半球的降水,从而使西太平洋负降水和反气旋异常增强并北移。通过分析有/无年循环的两组数值试验结果验证了上述结论,即有年循环的试验较真实地模拟出了观测中异常西风南移和西北太平洋反气旋异常的出现;无年循环试验尽管能模拟出El Niño年赤道中太平洋的西风异常,但其却没有南北向的移动,西北太平洋的反气旋也没有出现。因此,热带中太平洋气候态暖海温的季节循环对El Niño事件大气响应有着至关重要的作用。  相似文献   

5.

The Indonesian throughflow (ITF) transports a significant amount of warm freshwater from the Pacific to the Indian Ocean, making it critical to the global climate system. This study examines decadal ITF variations using ocean reanalysis data as well as climate model simulations from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). While the observed annual cycle of ITF transport is known to be correlated with the annual cycle of sea surface height (SSH) difference between the Pacific and Indian Oceans, ocean reanalysis data (1959–2015) show that the Pacific Ocean SSH variability controls more than 85% of ITF variation on decadal timescales. In contrast, the Indian Ocean SSH variability contributes less than 15%. While those observed contributions are mostly reproduced in the CMIP5 historical simulations, an analysis of future climate projections shows a 25–30% increase in the Indian Ocean SSH variability to decadal ITF variations and a corresponding decrease in the Pacific contribution. These projected changes in the Indian Ocean SSH variability are associated with a 23% increase in the amplitudes of negative zonal wind stress anomalies over the equatorial Indian Ocean, along with a 12º eastward shift in the center of action in these anomalies. This combined effect of the increased amplitude and eastward shift in the zonal wind stress increases the SSHA variance over the Indian Ocean, increasing its contribution to the ITF variation. The decadal ITF changes discussed in this study will be crucial in understanding the future global climate variability, strongly coupled to Indo-Pacific interactions.

  相似文献   

6.
Long-term monthly sea level and sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies from central California show that during winter months, positive anomalies are associated with El Niño events and the negative ones with La Niña events. There is no significant impact on monthly mean anomalies associated with Pacific decadal oscillations, although there is a tendency for more extreme events and greater variance during positive decadal oscillations. The very strong 1997–1998 El Niño was analyzed with respect to the long-term historic record to assess the forcing mechanisms for sea level and SST. Beginning in the spring of 1997, we observed several long-period (>30 days) fluctuations in daily sea level with amplitudes of over 10 cm at San Francisco, California. Fluctuations of poleward long-period alongshore wind stress anomalies (AWSA) are coherent with the sea level anomalies. However, the wind stress cannot entirely account for the observed sea level signals. The sea level fluctuations are also correlated with sea level fluctuations observed further south at Los Angeles and Tumaco, Columbia, which showed a poleward phase propagation of the sea level signal. We suggest that the sea level fluctuations were, to a greater degree, forced by the passage of remotely generated and coastally trapped waves that were generated along the equator and propagated to the north along the west coast of North America. However, both local and remote AWSA can significantly modulate the sea level signals. The arrival of coastally trapped waves began in the spring of 1997, which is earlier than previous strong El Niño events such as the 1982–1983 event.  相似文献   

7.
The climatic trends and basic features of seasonal variations in and anomalies of the concentration of methane in the atmospheric surface layer are considered on the basis of the current notion of the processes that form the global field of methane in the Earth’s atmosphere. Measurement data on the surface concentration of methane, which were obtained in Moscow and at a number of observation stations in Europe and Siberia in the fall-winter period of the first decade of the 21st century, have been analyzed. It is shown that, in the anomalously warm winter months of 2006/2007, the concentration of methane in the atmosphere over Moscow was higher than in the previous and following years. The excess concentration of methane amounted to 10% in March 2007, which is higher than the mean range of seasonal variations in the monthly mean concentration of surface methane. A comparison between the data obtained in Moscow and the data obtained at three stations of the NOAA global monitoring network and at three Russian Hydrometeorological Research Center stations shows the high spatial variability of the methane concentration in the atmosphere over northern Eurasia. The complex and multifactor processes that determine the content of methane in the atmospheric surface layer result in noticeable spatial and interannual deviations from the mean seasonal cycle of its concentration, which can manifest themselves on both regional and global scales. It is possible that the resumed increase in the content of methane in the Earth’s atmosphere recorded in 2007 (after its relative stabilization in the early 2000s) at the global monitoring network was also caused, to some extent, by the anomalously warm winter of 2006–2007 in northern Europe and western Siberia.  相似文献   

8.
Knowledge of sea surface temperature(SST) behaviour is vital for long-term climate scenarios. This study highlights essential outcomes about the distinguishable and unsurprising warming of the SST along the southern border of the Levantine Basin. The analysis is based on monthly SST data for the period 1948–2018. The southern Levantine Basin has undergone SST increase, during the last 71 years. In this study, a consistent warming trend has been found for the analysed SST data series, with a rate of 0.04°C/a, i.e., 0.4°C/(10 a). From 1975 to 1991 the mean annual SST was 17.1°C, and this increased to be 19.2°C, over the period 2002–2018. Results revealed two opposite trends of variability: a decreasing trend(–0.06°C/a) over the period 1975–1991, and an increasing trend(0.2°C/a) from 2002 to 2018. Over the period 1948–2018, positive mean annual SST anomalies had an average of1.8°C, and negative anomalies had an average of –1.1°C. The lowest SST total increase was found from January to April, with values about 0.03°C, while the highest warming appeared from June to September. The driving mechanisms behind the SST changes need to be more investigated, to understand the future trends and impacts of climate change in the Levantine Basin.  相似文献   

9.
The main characteristics of spatial and temporal variability of the precipitation regime in Sweden were studied by using the long‐term monthly precipitation amount (1890‐1990) at 33 stations. The data were filtered by using Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis, which provides principal modes of both spatial variability and time coefficient series describing the dominant temporal variability. Canonical correlation analysis (CCA) was used to reveal association between the atmospheric circulation and the characteristics of the climate variability. Statistically significant upward shifts in the mean precipitation have been found during cold months (March, September, November and December) and only a downward shift (less significant) for August. Simultaneous changes in the time series associated to the optimally correlated circulation patterns were found, indicating an important role of the circulation. The circulation patterns are given by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in March and December and a cyclonic structure centred over southern Scandinavia in September and November. These changes may have induced changes in the mean precipitation seasonality reflected by a shift of the maximum precipitation from August to July (after 1931 for western part and after 1961 for the southeastern coast) and after 1961 to September, October or November for other regions. Combining rotated EOF analysis with cluster analysis, 4 regions with similar climate variability were objectively identified. For these regions the standardised monthly precipitation anomalies were computed. The frequency of the extreme events (very dry/wet and dry/wet months) over 5‐year consecutive intervals was analysed. It has been concluded that extreme wet months were more frequent than extreme dry months over the entire country, especially in the northern and southeastern part.  相似文献   

10.
To isolate sea surface salinity (SSS) maps on seasonal, ENSO, decadal, and long-term trend timescales in the tropical Pacific Ocean, the ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) is applied on an SSS data set covering 1950–2009, concerning three key regions including the western equatorial Pacific Warm Pool (WP), South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ), and Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ); then a self-organizing map is performed on the intrinsic mode function maps decomposed by the EEMD, concerning the whole basin. The ENSO and decadal signals concern mainly the western Pacific, in contrast to the seasonal signal mostly notable in the east. (1) The modulated annual cycle has smaller (larger) amplitudes during El Ni?o (La Ni?a) years and later appearance of minima during El Ni?o years; one unique annual cycle is observed at the northwestern edge of the ITCZ lagging the well-known ITCZ cycle by ~3?months. (2) The pronounced 1999–2001 SSS-related La Ni?a event in the SPCZ was reinforced twice by the decadal shift in the 1990s; the eastern Pacific and central Pacific ENSO-related SSS features are compared. (3) The contrasted anomalies between the western equatorial and non-equatorial regions were pronounced during 1977–1996, whereas they were less pronounced during 1971–1976, 2005–2008, and a roughly opposite pattern appeared with strong and abrupt decrease shift prevailing in large areas over the southwestern basin during 1997–2004. (4) The freshening at the western equator and the saltening located east of the SPCZ SSS front together amplify the geographical SSS contrasts exhibited by the WP and SPCZ SSS fronts.  相似文献   

11.
Carbon monoxide (CO) total columns over European Russia (ER) and western Siberia (WS) have been analyzed using MOPITT (V5, TIR/NIR, L3) IR-radiometer data obtained in 2000–2014. High CO contents are revealed over large urban and industrial agglomerations and over regions of oil-and-gas production. A stable local CO maximum is observed over the Moscow agglomeration. Statistical characteristics of CO total columns observed in the atmosphere over ER and WS in 2000–2014 are presented. An analysis of long-term changes in CO content reveals nonlinear changes in the CO total column over northern Eurasia in 2000–2014. Results of a comparative analysis of annual variations in atmospheric CO contents over ER and WS are given. Based on Fourier analysis, empirical models of annual variations in total CO contents over ER and WS are proposed. Relations between regional CO contents and fire characteristics and between spatial CO distributions and features of large-scale atmospheric dynamics under conditions of weather and climate anomalies in the summers of 2010 in ER and 2012 in WS are analyzed. Data on total CO contents measured with a MOPITT satellite radiometer and a ground-based spectrometer operating at the Zvenigorod Scientific Station of the Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics are compared.  相似文献   

12.
Interest in Colombia’s offshore industry has increased over the past years. Therefore a detailed characterization of extreme wind and waves, in terms of return periods, numbers of events and its duration during the annual cycle, is needed. Two sets of high-resolution data are used in the statistical extreme value analysis (EVA). The significant wave height data (0.125°, 6 h) are from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ERA-Interim reanalysis available for the past 35 years (1979–2014). Surface winds (0.25°, 6 h) from the Cross-Calibrated Multi-Platform Ocean Surface Wind Vector Analyses (CCMP) of NASA/GSFC/NOAA (NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center/National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) are available for the past 24 years (1987–2011). Three well-known methods are applied to the data: the Block Maxima (BM), the Peak-Over-Threshold (POT) and the Method of Independent Storm (MIS). Several probabilistic models (Gumbel, Generalized Extreme Value, Weibull and Pareto) are evaluated for the BM and different threshold values for the POT and MIS. The results show that waves can reach up to 3.8 m and winds can be as strong as 31 m/s when considering the 50–100-year return periods. However, the wave model could underestimate values by up to one meter; hence, there is a probability of higher values in the region. Seasonally, most extreme events occur during the dry season (December–March) and during the Mid-Summer-Drought (MDS) or Veranillo months (June–July). Local conditions, including the reinforcement of the Caribbean Low Level Jet (CLLJ) and the occurrence of cold atmospheric fronts, are important drivers of extreme metoceanic variability. The total number of extreme wind events varied spatially and temporally from 15 to 65 and the mean duration from 15 to 25 h. A total number of extreme wave events ranging from <10 to 80 were computed during the annual cycle in the areas of interest, with a mean duration of less than 40 h.  相似文献   

13.
姜德娟  张华  常远勇  李瑞泽 《海洋科学》2015,39(10):116-124
降水是全球能量平衡和水分循环中的关键要素,但海洋区域实时、准确的降水观测资料难以获取,因此,遥感卫星资料在海洋降水及全球能量和水分循环研究领域具有十分重要的应用前景。本文基于1998~2012年6个气象站点(岛屿或海岸带)的实测降水资料,评估TRMM(Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission)V7版本3B42、3B43两个降水产品对渤海降水量的估算精度,在此基础上,分析并揭示渤海区域年、季和月降水量的时空特征。结果表明:在日尺度,3B42产品对渤海降水量的估算效果总体较差,而在月、年尺度,3B42、3B43产品与实测降水量比较接近,而且,3B43产品的估算精度稍高;总体上,TRMM表现出低估降水的特点,且当实测月降水量大于300 mm时,这种特征尤为显著;1998~2012年,渤海年降水量表现出明显的年际丰枯变化特征,多年均值为631.6 mm;夏季降水量占年降水总量的62.0%,7月是降水量最丰富的月份;空间上,渤海中南部降水量相对较高,而近岸区域降水量相对较低;受大气环流等因素的影响,夏季降水量重心向西北方向偏移,冬季则向东南方向偏移。  相似文献   

14.
This study investigates the long-term changes of monthly sea surface wind speeds over the China seas from 1988 to 2015. The 10-meter wind speeds products from four major global reanalysis datasets with high resolution are used: Cross-Calibrated Multi-Platform data set(CCMP), NCEP climate forecast system reanalysis data set(CFSR),ERA-interim reanalysis data set(ERA-int) and Japanese 55-year reanalysis data set(JRA55). The monthly sea surface wind speeds of four major reanalysis data sets have been investigated through comparisons with the longterm and homogeneous observation wind speeds data recorded at ten stations. The results reveal that(1) the wind speeds bias of CCMP, CFSR, ERA-int and JRA55 are 0.91 m/s, 1.22 m/s, 0.62 m/s and 0.22 m/s, respectively.The wind speeds RMSE of CCMP, CFSR, ERA-int and JRA55 are 1.38 m/s, 1.59 m/s, 1.01 m/s and 0.96 m/s,respectively;(2) JRA55 and ERA-int provides a realistic representation of monthly wind speeds, while CCMP and CFSR tend to overestimate observed wind speeds. And all the four data sets tend to underestimate observed wind speeds in Bohai Sea and Yellow Sea;(3) Comparing the annual wind speeds trends between observation and the four data sets at ten stations for 1988-1997, 1988–2007 and 1988–2015, the result show that ERA-int is superior to represent homogeneity monthly wind speeds over the China seaes.  相似文献   

15.
The variability of the fields of the total ozone content (TOC) and UV erythemal irradiance in the tropical region (30°S–30°N) is studied. The fields of monthly means of the TOC and erythemal irradiance that are based on the TOMS 8 and SBUV 8 satellite observations over the period from 1979 through 2003, with preliminarily eliminated the linear trend and the seasonal cycle, were used as the initial data. The application of the method of empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) to analysis of initial series made it possible to identify the characteristic spatial and temporal patterns in the fields of TOC and UV-irradiance anomalies that are closely related to solar activity and elements of the atmospheric general circulation, such as the quasi-biennial oscillation and El Niño (La Niña) phenomena. Quantitative estimates and analysis of the fields of TOC and UV-irradiance variations are presented in the study. The revealed spatial, temporal, and phase relations of the fields of ozone variations to some geo-and heliophysical factors are used in the regression model proposed for estimating monthly means of TOC in the tropics and based on the EOF decomposition.  相似文献   

16.
Both the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and the North Atlantic Ocean (NA) biosphere have recognized associations with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). These multidecadal physical–biological affinities inspired a closer look at AMOC influences on bottom-up control of NA and South Atlantic Ocean (SA) pelagic ecosystem variability. Various ocean models associate changes in the AMOC with sea surface temperature (SST) differences in the western subpolar NA and SA represented as the Atlantic Dipole SST Anomaly (ADSA) index. The Extended Reconstructed SST version 2 (ERSSTv2) dataset for 2° quadrangles from 1890 to 2007 was used here to represent Atlantic Ocean SST patterns and to gauge 20th century AMOC variability using an Atlantic Dipole SST (ADS) index, an un-normalized version of ADSA index. Temperature–phosphate (T–PO4) linear regressions were used to convert temperature to phosphate concentration ([PO4]). The interannual stability of T–PO4 linear regressions first was examined using 26 Bermuda area T–PO4 datasets between 1958 and 2001. Within the constraints provided by the Bermuda analysis, climatological T–PO4 linear regressions based on GEOSECS-derived slopes and NODC-derived X-intercepts supported the conversion of monthly Atlantic Ocean ERSSTv2 temperatures for each 2° quadrangle to monthly surface [PO4]. A representative annual surface phosphate utilization (SPU) was calculated for each 2° quadrangle by subtracting monthly minimum surface [PO4] from monthly maximum surface [PO4] to determine the annual surface [PO4] ranges from 1890 to 2007. Annual average SST tended to increase and overall annual average SPU tended to decrease through the 20th century in both the NA and SA, but the NA exhibited more temporal variability. An Atlantic Dipole Phosphate Utilization (ADPU) index related to the ADS index was calculated for each year from 1890 to 2007. The ADS and ADPU indices were inversely correlated with about 57% of the variability in the ADPU index explained by the ADS index. The ADPU index exhibited three distinct cycles through the 20th century. Cross-correlation analysis showed that the NAO led the ADS and ADPU indices by about 14 years. Differences in annual average SPU for each Atlantic Ocean 2° quadrangle between the three high and four low years of the ADPU cycles yielded six maps that, when averaged, clearly exhibited reversed east–west patterns distributed in alternating latitudinal bands in both the NA and SA. The east–west patterns spatially corresponded to the NA and SA surface circulation and temporally resembled NA patterns previously associated with the NAO. AMOC variability, mediated by Kelvin and Rossby waves associated with changes in both deep and surface arm circulation, likely contributed to meridional continuity of phosphate-classified, NA, and SA pelagic ecosystem variability, including fisheries, through the 20th century. Based on the results, future global warming influences on the AMOC, well short of shutdown, likely will have complex pelagic ecosystem impacts throughout the Atlantic Ocean.  相似文献   

17.
Contributions of climatically significant natural and anthropogenic emission sources in northern Eurasia to seasonal carbon monoxide (CO) variations observed at the Zotino Tall Tower Observatory (ZOTTO) in Central Siberia in 2007–2011 have quantitatively been estimated using the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model. It is shown that the formation of a stable continental pollution plume from sources in Western Europe, European Russia and southern Siberia during winter plays an important role in the regional balance of surface CO and allows one to explain 55–80% of the amplitude of the CO annual cycle observed at the ZOTTO station (~70–90 ppbv). During the warm period, the effect of the anthropogenic factor is weakly pronounced, and the background concentration of CO is regulated, first and foremost, by the oxidation of biogenic volatile organic compounds and fire activity in the region.  相似文献   

18.
于2007年11月～2008年10月对青岛太平角岩石潮间带鼠尾藻附植动物进行了连续12个月的逐月采样调查,并根据蜈蚣藻、角叉菜、扇形叉枝藻、海蒿子和叉节藻等海藻生长期的不同而在不同月份对其分别进行了采样,研究了附植动物的类群组成、丰度、生物量及其季节动态。所有海藻样品共鉴定出附植动物16个类群。鼠尾藻附植动物的年平均丰度为606ind/gdwtalgae,优势类群为线虫和桡足类,其次是腹足类和多毛类。鼠尾藻附植动物的平均丰度最高值出现在4月,最低值出现在7月。鼠尾藻附植动物的年平均生物量为282×103μg/g dwt algae,最高值出现在6月,最低值为2月。其他海藻附植动物的类群数、丰度、生物量均低于鼠尾藻。海藻附植动物的优势类群及其丰度和生物量在不同月份和不同海藻之间均显著不同。相对于海水理化因子季节变化的影响,不同海藻生长型形态的复杂性及同一种海藻随生长周期而发生的形态变化对附植动物的区系组成和季节动态的影响可能占居更主要地位。  相似文献   

19.
The Shark Bay trawl fishery is Western Australia's most valuable prawn fishery (worth AUD$25 million in 2014). The 18-vessel fleet targets western king prawns (Penaeus latisulcatus), brown tiger prawns (P. esculentus) and also retains saucer scallops (Ylistrum balloti) and blue swimmer crabs (Portunus armatus). Increased fuel prices, falling prawn prices and lower catches of other species, following extreme environmental events, have impacted fishery profits. A biomass dynamics model with an economic component indicated that total revenue levels start to decline when annual effort increases beyond ~ 200 fishing days per boat. Annual effort required to achieve MEY, when based solely on prawn fishing, is 115–150 days per boat after accounting for fixed and variable fishing costs and annual fishing efficiency increases of 1–2%. From 2007–2014, the adjusted effort was 188–192 days per boat. Fishing occurred between March and November during 7–8 fishing periods, separated by 5–8 day (low catchability) moon closure periods. An empirical daily profit assessment (2007–2015), accounting for recruitment variation, daily prawn size compositions, monthly market prices for different prawn species and sizes, and daily fishing costs, showed vessels made profits on ~ 115–160 days and losses on ~ 15–55 days per year, when fishing occurred near the full moon. The fishery benefitted in 2013–2015 by starting later in the year and better targeting within-season effort. This management strategy within the effort-control framework, which improved profitability, maintained higher spawning stocks and reduced ecosystem fishing impacts, has wider application in prawn fishery management.  相似文献   

20.
We test two hypotheses, that annual environmental cycles produce periodic variability in the skeletal composition of deep-water gorgonians, and that these cycles can be counted to determine the coral's age. Annual periodicity of deposition was tested by comparing the internode composition of bamboo corals live-collected 10 years apart in the Southern Ocean. The validity of the comparison was substantiated by growth rates for the 10-year interval (77–121 μm/yr) that were confirmed by radiocarbon analysis. Variability in Mg/Ca and possibly S/Ca, but not Sr/Ca or P/Ca, was consistent with annual cycles of deposition. However, spectral analysis of Mg/Ca data for a larger coral showed little or no spectral peak associated with an annual cycle of deposition (though there were peaks at periods of 4–5 and 11–15 years). The absence of an annual peak is likely to reflect growth rates that vary over time, coral cross-sections that change shape over time, and interannual differences in the seasonal range of environmental variability. The resulting subjectivity in what defines an annulus, along with evidence that the nature and extent of annual periodicity differs among sites, means that the technique is likely to be inherently imprecise and to require independent validation for each site and taxon before it can be applied.  相似文献   

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