共查询到17条相似文献，搜索用时 642 毫秒
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结构系统可靠性计算的方向概率法 总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4
通过随机空间的映射变换,将多个失效模式的失效面统一变换到随机独立的标准正态空间(Gauss空间)内,利用该空间球坐标沿其径向的X^2分布特性,计算系统失效域上的失效概率。由于无需进行模式间相关性的近似分析,因而提高了系统失效概率的计算精度。两种结构的可靠性分析算例表明,该方法实用性强,操作性好,精度较高,对于有高度非线性失效面方程的可靠性计算问题亦有很强的适应性。 相似文献
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海洋平台结构系统可靠性分析 总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6
本文研究了对三维模型的导管架平台结构系统可靠性评估方法。在极值载荷条件下，分别以极限冲剪应力及屈曲临界应力作为管节点及杆件的极限强度，采用增量载荷法建立失效模式安全余量方程。同时研究了求取结构系统主要失效模式的自动算法及计算系统失效概率的方法。作为一个算例，运用作者开发的计算机程序，对一固定式导管架平台进行了可靠性分析，验证了本文方法对开展三维模型平台结构系统可靠性评估是可行的。 相似文献
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脐带缆作为水下生产系统的“神经生命线”,是水下生产系统的关键一环,其可靠性问题越来越受到关注。影响脐带缆可靠性的事件具有随机性,目前缺乏对这些随机事件发生概率的统计,难以直接对其可靠性进行定量分析。基于模糊数理论和故障树结合的方法对脐带缆可靠性进行分析,首先获得引起脐带缆失效的40个最小割集及底事件重要度排序。其次采用基于模糊集理论的定量分析对脐带缆故障树系统中的底事件进行统计计算,得到各底事件的失效概率,最终计算出顶事件概率,并得出导致脐带缆失效的主要因素依次为护套/铠装失效、钢管失效、电缆失效,为脐带缆的安全运行提出适当的建议。 相似文献
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基于中国南海海域风暴环境条件,研究分析南海海域固定式导管架平台结构整体性和可靠性,以及新建固定式平台结构设计准则。采用海洋环境数据后报方法,得到南海海域1972~2011共40年的风、浪、流联合数据,从中抽取风暴环境条件;利用通用荷载模型,将40年间的风暴环境数据转变成结构的荷载数据,即基底剪力或倾覆力矩;并计算得到风暴环境荷载的短期及长期分布,以及任意风暴下荷载的概率分布;根据结构可靠性模型,结合荷载的长期分布,研究基于结构暴露等级及失效概率的固定式平台结构强度储备比。根据计算,得到了不同暴露等级下中国南海平台的强度储备比,并与墨西哥湾及北海海域进行了比较,为新建平台提供设计参考。 相似文献
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张力腿平台局部节点强度可靠度分析方法 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
局部节点可靠度分析对张力腿平台(TLP)整体安全性评估具有重要意义。提出了一个TLP平台局部节点可靠度的分析方法,首先对TLP平台整体进行分析,统计局部节点各种失效模式并得到典型失效模式及对应的典型荷载工况;然后应用改进的子模型技术对TLP平台局部节点进行极限承载能力分析,确定了局部节点在典型荷载工况下的极限承载力;对局部节点极限承载力及南海某区域的波浪荷载进行统计分析,得到其概率统计特性;在此基础上计算了TLP平台局部节点对应典型失效模式下的可靠度指标。通过算例分析表明,该TLP平台各节点可靠度指标值均大于3.1;立柱与浮箱连接节点在不同荷载工况下失效模式不同,而立柱与甲板连接节点易发生管交汇处剪切破坏。为TLP平台的安全性评估提供了一种有效的分析方法,具有一定的理论价值及实用价值。 相似文献
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平台坠物、船舶抛锚等第三方活动引起的冲击损伤是近海管道失效的主要原因，时刻威胁中国海洋油气开发系统的安全性。为保障近海油气管道安全运行，围绕冲击荷载作用下管道损伤及失效评估这一中心问题，从管道损伤机理研究、含冲击损伤管道安全评估、管道工程项目风险评估3个方面总结了国内外研究发展现状，明确了影响结构安全的关键问题，并对未来研究工作提出建议。挖沟埋深为管道防护冲击损伤的有效手段，土体强度是防护效果关键因素，应重点关注土体强度空间变异性问题；管道冲击损伤主要为平滑凹陷和弯折凹陷，对于后者应进一步确定其在内压荷载下的剩余强度及疲劳强度；风险评估中失效判据对于结果有显著影响，需构建考虑多种安全性评估准则的失效判据体系。 相似文献
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人工鱼礁工程的风险评估 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
对台风暴潮影响下的嵊泗海域人工鱼礁工程做了风险评估,考虑了台风暴潮中出现的大浪和风暴潮减水对鱼礁联合作用的危害。风险评估分为危险灾害识别、失效概率计算、失效后果评估、风险准则评定和风险管理决策几个主要的步骤。在失效概率的计算中采用基于应用设计点的重点抽样法随机模拟的技术,这一随机模拟技术可以广泛的应用与海洋工程结构的风险评估当中。 相似文献
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基于模糊影响图(FPID)和失效模式与效果分析(FMEA)建立了一种海洋结构风险分析方法。鉴于风险分析中某些事件发生概率和关系概率两个重要参数确定时需借助专家主观判断,本文将模糊概率的概念引入海洋结构影响图评估方法中。该方法成功地应用到海洋平台人员伤害分析中。虽然这里仅给出了该方法在海洋平台风险评估中的应用,但其具有更广泛应用价值。 相似文献
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Collision between risers is an important design and operational concern, especially in deep water since the probability of collision tends to increase as the riser length increases. Riser collision is due to the joint effects of many processes, i.e. environmental loads, hydrodynamic interference and surface floater motions and the most of them are stochastic processes. This paper provides an approach for estimating the failure probability of riser collision by considering these joint effects and their stochastic nature. Firstly, a procedure for establishing the distribution function of the extreme minimum relative distance between two risers is introduced based on simulation tools and statistical data. Numerical simulation is performed to compute the minimum distance between risers for a given duration. Repeated simulations are applied so that the extreme value distribution can be established. Secondly, reliability analysis is performed by considering the uncertainties of input parameters related to environmental loads and riser system. The collision probability is calculated based on both the First/Second Order Reliability Method and the Monte Carlo simulation techniques. 相似文献
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Fish cages in the open sea are exposed to cycle loads due to irregular wave climate during their service life, and thus the fatigue reliability assessment of mooring system should be conducted to ensure the safe operation. The aim of this study is to evaluate the fatigue failure probability of mooring system for fish cage. Numerical simulation of net cage in random waves is performed and the time dependent approach is applied to conduct the fatigue reliability analysis of shackle chains based on S-N curve method. The sensitivity analysis of fatigue reliability of mooring line to the uncertainty of random variables in the fatigue limit state is conducted. In addition, the system reliability for mooring system is analyzed and the effect of the initial pretension and safety factor on system reliability is investigated. The results indicate that a case without the initial pretension on anchor lines is helpful to decrease the failure probability of mooring system and the safety factor of mooring lines in the current regulation is conservative for the system reliability against fatigue damage. 相似文献
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针对现阶段深水软黏土地基防波堤建设的设计理论和稳定性分析方法尚不成熟,结合实际工程,采用三维弹塑性有限元数值分析方法,研究在水平或竖直单一方向荷载以及复合加载条件下软黏土地基上沉箱防波堤的失稳模式,提出破坏包络线的稳定性判别方法。在波浪水平荷载作用下,深水软基上沉箱防波堤发生倾覆失稳破坏,失稳转动点为沉箱底面以下中轴线偏右的某点,不同于规范中规定的岩石或砂质地基沉箱倾覆转动点为其后踵点;在重力等竖向荷载作用下,沉箱的失稳模式为结构整体下陷,抛石基床及地基形成连贯的塑性区域,呈现较明显地冲剪破坏形式;在水平、竖向复合荷载作用下,软基上沉箱防波堤的破坏包络线由结构倾覆破坏线和地基承载力破坏线组成,包络线将荷载组合区分成稳定区、仅发生水平承载力不足倾覆破坏区、仅发生地基竖向承载力不足破坏区、同时发生水平承载力和地基竖向承载力不足破坏区4个区域。研究成果为深水软基沉箱防波堤建设提供参考和借鉴。 相似文献
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This article presents a procedure to calculate the bearing capacity of suction anchors subjected to inclined average and cyclic loads at the optimal load attachment point using the undrained cyclic shear strength of soft clays based on the failure model of anchors proposed by Andersen et al. The constant average shear stress of each failure zone around an anchor is assumed and determined based on the static equilibrium condition for the procedure. The cyclic shear strength of each failure zone is determined based on the average shear stress. The cyclic bearing capacity is finally determined by limiting equilibrium analyses. Thirty-six model tests of suction anchors subjected to inclined average and cyclic loads were conducted, which include vertical and lateral failure modes. Model test results were predicted using the procedure to verify its feasibility. The average relative error between predicted and test results is 1.7%, which shows that the procedure can be used to calculate the cyclic bearing capacity of anchors with optimal loading. Test results also showed that the anchor was still in vertical failure mode under combined average and cyclic loads if an anchor was in vertical failure mode under static loads. The anchor failure would depend on the vertical resistance degradation under cyclic loads if an anchor was in lateral failure mode under static loads. Cyclic bearing capacities associated with the number of load cycles to failure of 1000 were about 75% and 80% of the static bearing capacity for vertical failure anchors and lateral failure anchors, respectively. 相似文献
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Risk analysis and assessment relating coastal structures has been one of the hot topics in the area of coastal protection recently. In this paper, from three aspects of joint return period of multiple loads, dike failure rate and dike continuous risk prevention respectively, three new risk analysis methods concerning overtopping of sea dikes are developed. It is worth noting that the factors of storm surge which leads to overtopping are also considered in the three methods. In order to verify and estimate the effectiveness and reliability of the newly developed methods, quantified mutual information is adopted. By means of case testing, it can be found that different prior variables might be selected dividedly, according to the requirement of special engineering application or the dominance of loads. Based on the selection of prior variables, the correlating risk analysis method can be successfully applied to practical engineering. 相似文献
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防波堤风险分析研究框架 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
介绍了防波堤风险分析研究的内容、方法和目前的研究进展。防波堤风险分析包涵四个主要方面:防波堤风险辨识、防波堤风险估计、防波堤风险评价和防波堤风险控制。具体内容包括:防波堤系统正常使用极限状态和承载力极限状态的界定,波浪不确定性的识别和描述,防波堤失效模式的探讨,单一模式失效概率和系统失效概率的计算,两种极限状态失效后果的量化,成本-获益分析,效用分析,可接受风险准则和降低风险的措施。防波堤风险分析的目的在于为决策者明确工程中存在的诸多不确定性因素,提供充足信息,实现项目的决策优化。 相似文献
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Dong Hyawn KIM 《中国海洋工程》2014,(6):739-748
A new load surface based approach to the reliability analysis of caisson-type breakwater is proposed. Uncertainties of the horizontal and vertical wave loads acting on breakwater are considered by using the so-called load surfaces, which can be estimated as functions of wave height, water level, and so on. Then, the first-order reliability method（FORM） can be applied to determine the probability of failure under the wave action. In this way, the reliability analysis of breakwaters with uncertainties both in wave height and in water level is possible. Moreover, the uncertainty in wave breaking can be taken into account by considering a random variable for wave height ratio which relates the significant wave height to the maximum wave height. The proposed approach is applied numerically to the reliability analysis of caisson breakwater under wave attack that may undergo partial or full wave breaking. 相似文献