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1.
基于参与第六次耦合模式比较计划（CMIP6）的8个地球系统耦合模式所输出的历史模拟结果,本文通过与观测对比,评估了CMIP6模式对东南印度洋亚南极模态水的模拟能力,并预估了在中等强迫情景和高强迫情景下,该模态水潜沉率、体积及性质的变化趋势。结果表明:与Argo观测相比,CMIP6模式中南印度洋混合层偏深且上层海洋的位势密度偏小,因此其模拟的东南印度洋亚南极模态水潜沉率偏大而位势密度偏小。不同CMIP6模式之间模拟的东南印度洋亚南极模态水潜沉区存在差异,混合层侧向输入是导致这一差异的主要原因。此外,在历史模拟和两种情景试验中,东南印度洋亚南极模态水均呈现出潜沉率和体积减小、温度升高、盐度和密度降低的趋势。其中,在高强迫情景下,变化趋势最大,中等强迫情景次之,历史模拟中的变化趋势最小。这表明,辐射强迫越强,东南印度洋海表温度升高和淡水输入增加的趋势越大,导致混合层变浅及其南北梯度减小的趋势越快,东南印度洋亚南极模态水潜沉率、体积和性质变化的趋势也随之增大。 相似文献
2.
热带太平洋是影响全球气候系统的重要区域,热带太平洋海表温度(SST)的长期变化趋势模拟是国际研究领域关注的热点。基于12个参加第六期国际耦合模式比较计划(CMIP6)的模式结果,本研究对1950年至1999年间多模式模拟得到的热带太平洋SST增暖现象进行了初步评估。结果表明,不同模式对热带太平洋SST增暖的模拟能力差别较大,特别在赤道东太平洋区域,部分模式模拟得到了偏强的SST降温趋势,与实际观测中的SST增温趋势相反,多模式集合平均结果给出了中部型厄尔尼诺事件的增温趋势。通过引入SST增暖变率分析方法,本研究对多模式模拟的热带太平洋SST在过去50 a中的增暖内在变化进行了进一步评估,结果表明目前各模式对热带太平洋SST增暖变率模拟偏弱,空间分布差异较大。 相似文献
3.
The response of the mixed layer depth(MLD) and subduction rate in the subtropical Northeast Pacific to global warming is investigated based on 9 CMIP5 models. Compared with the present climate in the 9 models, the response of the MLD in the subtropical Northeast Pacific to the increased radiation forcing is spatially nonuniform, with the maximum shoaling about 50 m in the ensemble mean result. The inter-model differences of MLD change are non-negligible, which depend on the various dominated mechanisms. On the north of the MLD front, MLD shallows largely and is influenced by Ekman pumping, heat flux, and upper-ocean cold advection changes. On the south of the MLD front, MLD changes a little in the warmer climate, which is mainly due to the upper-ocean warm advection change. As a result, the MLD front intensity weakens obviously from 0.24 m/km to0.15 m/km(about 33.9%) in the ensemble mean, not only due to the maximum of MLD shoaling but also dependent on the MLD non-uniform spatial variability. The spatially non-uniform decrease of the subduction rate is primarily dominated by the lateral induction reduction(about 85% in ensemble mean) due to the significant weakening of the MLD front. This research indicates that the ocean advection change impacts the MLD spatially non-uniform change greatly, and then plays an important role in the response of the MLD front and the subduction process to global warming. 相似文献
4.
太平洋沃克环流(Pacific Walker Circulation, PWC)是热带太平洋上空至关重要的大气环流系统, 但其在全球变暖背景下的长期变化仍存在争议, 换而言之, 沃克环流增强或减弱仍是有待回答的科学问题之一。观测表明近30年PWC呈增强趋势, 而气候模式无法得出观测的趋势。文章分析了参加第五次耦合模式比较计划(Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5, CMIP5)的18个耦合模式模拟的PWC变化。结果表明, 大部分耦合模式能够较好地再现PWC的气候态分布特征, 但不能给出其加强的趋势。究其原因, 主要取决于模式对海表温度(SST)变化的模拟能力, 能模拟出PWC加强的耦合模式, 其模拟的SST趋势分布与观测相近[即类拉尼娜(La Niña)型], 但仍存在一定差异; 而模拟出PWC减弱的耦合模式, 其模拟的SST趋势分布表现为类厄尔尼诺(El Niño)型, 这与观测不符。对于后者, 如果用观测的SST驱动其大气模式却能够模拟出PWC的加强, 从另一方面也说明了SST变化对于PWC长期变化的主导作用。因此, CMIP5模式要想合理地预估PWC在全球变暖背景下的变化, 需要提高对于热带太平洋SST变化的模拟能力。 相似文献
5.
副热带东北太平洋混合层深度及其对潜沉的影响 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
The present climate simulations of the mixed layer depth(MLD) and the subduction rate in the subtropical Northeast Pacific are investigated based on nine of the CMIP5 models. Compared with the observation data,spatial patterns of the MLD and the subduction rate are well simulated in these models. The spatial pattern of the MLD is nonuniform, with a local maximum MLD(140 m) region centered at(28°N, 135°W) in late winter. The nonuniform MLD pattern causes a strong MLD front on the south of the MLD maximum region, controls the lateral induction rate pattern, and then decides the nonuniform distribution of the subduction rate. Due to the inter-regional difference of the MLD, we divide this area into two regions. The relatively uniform Ekman pumping has little effect on the nonuniform subduction spatial pattern, though it is nearly equal to the lateral induction in values. In the south region, the northward warm Ekman advection(–1.75×10~(–7) K/s) controls the ocean horizontal temperature advection(–0.85×10~(–7) K/s), and prevents the deepening of the MLD. In the ensemble mean, the contribution of the ocean advection to the MLD is about –29.0 m/month, offsetting the sea surface net heat flux contribution(33.9 m/month). While in the north region, the southward cold advection deepens the MLD(21.4 m/month) as similar as the heat flux(30.4 m/month). In conclusion, the nonuniform MLD pattern is dominated by the nonuniform ocean horizontal temperature advection. This new finding indicates that the upper ocean current play an important role in the variability of the winter MLD and the subduction rate. 相似文献
6.
本文利用PHC、ECCO2、SODA、GECCO3和CMIP6资料,分析了北冰洋热含量的水平分布特征、季节变化和长期变化趋势等,评估了CMIP6模式对北冰洋海洋热含量的模拟能力。研究发现,北冰洋海洋热含量表现出明显的季节变化:热含量在4月份最低,9月份最高;在历史情形下(1850?2014年),相较观测和再分析资料,CMIP6多模式集合平均(MME)的上层500 m热含量在格陵兰海偏暖,在挪威海、巴伦支海和欧亚海盆偏冷,MME的全水深热含量在北冰洋几乎所有区域均偏暖,在格陵兰海偏差最大;CMIP6模式对北冰洋温度剖面模拟偏差较大,MME平均温度在1 000 m以深均高于观测和再分析资料。在未来情形下(2015?2100年),MME表现出明显的北冰洋增暖情形,但绝大多数中国模式没有表现出明显的增暖情形。中国模式中,BCC-CSM2-MR和BCC-ESM1对北冰洋年平均热含量的模拟较差,CIESM对热含量季节和年代际变化模拟较差,FIO-ESM-2-0对北冰洋上层500 m年平均热含量及热含量季节和年代际变化的模拟都比较好。 相似文献
7.
The effect of the wave-induced mixing on the upper ocean temperature in a climate model 总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2
The significant underestimation of sea surface temperature （SST） and the temperature in the upper ocean is one of common problems in present climate models. The influence of the wave-induced mixing on SST and the temperature in the upper ocean was examined based on a global climate model. The results from the model coupled with wave-induced mixing showed a significant improvement in the simulation of SST and the temperature in the upper ocean compared with those of the original model without wave effects. Although there has still a cold bias, the new simulation is much closer to the climatology, especially in the northern ocean and tropical ocean. This study indicates that some important physical processes in the accurate simulation of the ocean may be ignored in present climate models, and the wave-induced mixing is one of those factors. Thus, the wave-induced mixing （ or the effect of surface waves） should be incorporated properly into climate models in order to simulate or forecast the ocean, then climate system, more accurately. 相似文献
8.
The sensitivity of the characteristics of atmospheric centers of action (ACAs) in the Northern Hemisphere to global climate changes is analyzed on the basis of models of different complexity, including the climate model of intermediate complexity of the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Russian Academy of Sciences and the ECHAM4/OPYC3 and HadCM3 general circulation models of the atmosphere and ocean. The emphasis is on the analysis of trends of the change in ACA characteristics in winter, when the long-term global warming is most considerable. The global climate models are shown to be able to describe not only the intermediate regimes of ACAs but also their dynamics. In particular, ECHAM4/OPYC3 is capable of reproducing the statistically significant connection of the characteristics of the North Pacific centers of action with El Niño/La Niña events, revealed from observational data. With the use of the results of the global climate models, the possible changes in the characteristics of centers of action in the 21st century are estimated for an increased content of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. 相似文献
9.
亚南极模态水(sub-Antarctic mode water,SAMW)的潜沉过程与全球变暖减缓现象密切相关。为了增进对亚南极模态水长期变化特征的认识,使用一个高分辨率长时间序列的海洋模式数据对SAMW的潜沉率变化趋势的空间分布进行了系统地分析。结果显示,在1958~2016年间,SAMW的潜沉量在南太平洋和南印度洋在长时间段上存在着相反的趋势变化,即在南太平洋增大,在南印度洋减少,这与已有研究结果相符。但进一步的分析发现,SAMW潜沉量的空间分布存在着明显的差异。在南印度洋,其北部潜沉区的潜沉率仅有很微弱的上升趋势,而位于南部潜沉区的潜沉率则有明显的下降趋势。与此同时,在南太平洋中,其西部潜沉区的潜沉率趋势非常小,而东部潜沉区的水的潜沉有明显上升的长期趋势。总体而言,密度较大的SAMW潜沉水团比密度较小的潜沉水团表现出更显著的长期变化的趋势。南部变化趋势明显的潜沉水量大概占总潜沉水量的60%,由此可知SAMW的总体趋势更多地来自其南部密度更大的潜沉区的贡献。进一步的分析表明,SAMW潜沉区的混合层的长期变化趋势与潜沉率的长期变化趋势之间存在较为一致的空间分布。其中,在南太平洋,东侧潜沉区的混合层的长期增大趋势,主要由于风应力增大的作用,而西侧潜沉区的混合层的长期减小趋势,则主要因为海表浮力强迫的控制;在南印度洋,南侧潜沉区的潜沉率长期减小趋势更多的是受到浮力强迫的影响,而西北部的潜沉率长期增加趋势则主要由风应力增强导致的。 相似文献
10.
本文利用第五次国际耦合模式比较计划（CMIP5）中的地球系统模式（ESM2M）,结合Argo观测数据和由Ishii等整理的再分析数据集,分析现在气候背景和辐射强迫极端增强下副热带东北太平洋海域（10°～40°N,110°～160°W）混合层深度（MLD）和潜沉率的季节变化特征,研究其对全球变暖的响应。在现在气候背景下,二者最大值均出现在冬季。潜沉率的主要贡献项存在显著的季节变化差异,1?5月主要受侧向潜沉率的变化控制,6?12月则由风应力旋度导致的埃克曼抽吸速度变化主控。全球变暖后,季节循环信号的主控要素不变。但受风应力旋度等要素变化的影响,各季节的MLD减小,大值区范围收缩。由于冬季减小幅度远大于夏季,MLD季节波动幅度（振幅）显著变小。长期看,MLD呈现持续变浅的趋势,其空间不均匀性减弱引起的MLD锋面减弱是控制侧向潜沉率减弱,最终导致总潜沉率减弱的关键。由于埃克曼抽吸速度的季节变化信号对全球变暖的响应较小,因此总潜沉率在冬季受全球变暖的影响最为强烈。上述结果表明,构成潜沉率的两个关键要素对总潜沉率的贡献比例是随着季节变化而改变的:冬季MLD锋面强盛时期,侧向潜沉率的影响将显著增强。全球变暖前后二者截然不同的变化会显著改变潜沉率的季节循环振幅,可能对该区域模态水的形成和输运产生深远的影响。 相似文献
11.
浪致混合对亚热带冬季海洋混合强度的影响 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
上层海洋在全球气候系统中起着至关重要的作用。对上层海洋层结及混合的模拟偏差一直是海洋和气候数值模式发展中悬而未决的问题。本文首先评估了CMIP5中45个模式对上层海洋层结模拟的偏差，确认了冬季亚热带地区海洋模式垂向混合偏强。随后，基于自然资源部第一海洋研究所地球系统模式(FIO-ESM v1.0)，分别开展了1986?2005年期间包含和关闭海浪垂向混合情况下的数值实验，分析浪致混合对亚热带冬季海洋混合强度模拟的影响及机制。发现浪致混合使得气候模式中亚热带海域冬季的海洋层结增强，增强的层结使上层海洋更加稳定。首次揭示了增加浪致混合反而降低了海洋总体的垂向混合率:浪致混合使北半球冬季亚热带海域混合率从无浪实验的227 cm2/s降低到有浪实验的178 cm2/s，降低了21.6%；南半球冬季亚热带海域混合率从无浪实验的189 cm2/s降低到有浪实验的165 cm2/s，降低了12.7%。进一步分析发现，浪致混合主要是通过增加冬季亚热带海域上层海洋的热含量从而强化了海洋的层结，最终改善了气候模式对上层海洋混合的模拟。 相似文献
12.
Seventeen models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5（CMIP5） activity are compared on their historical simulation of the South China Sea（SCS） ocean heat content（OHC） in the upper 300 m. Ishii＇s temperature data, based on the World Ocean Database 2005（WOD05） and World Ocean Atlas 2005（WOA05）, is used to assess the model performance by comparing the spatial patterns of seasonal OHC anomaly（OHCa） climatology, OHC climatology, monthly OHCa climatology, and interannual variability of OHCa. The spatial patterns in Ishii＇s data set show that the seasonal SCS OHCa climatology, both in winter and summer, is strongly affected by the wind stress and the current circulations in the SCS and its neighboring areas. However, the CMIP5 models present rather different spatial patterns and only a few models properly capture the dominant features in Ishii＇s pattern. Among them, GFDL-ESM2 G is of the best performance. The SCS OHC climatology in the upper 300 m varies greatly in different models. Most of them are much greater than those calculated from Ishii＇s data. However, the monthly OHCa climatology in each of the 17 CMIP5 models yields similar variation and magnitude as that in Ishii＇s. As for the interannual variability, the standard deviations of the OHCa time series in most of the models are somewhat larger than those in Ishii＇s. The correlation between the interannual time series of Ishii＇s OHCa and that from each of the 17 models is not satisfactory. Among them, BCC-CSM1.1 has the highest correlation to Ishii＇s, with a coefficient of about 0.6. 相似文献
13.
Qi Shu Zhenya Song Ying Bao Xiaodan Yang Yajuan Song Xinfang Li Meng Wei Fangli Qiao 《海洋学报(英文版)》2022,41(10):22-31
We introduced the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) Ocean Model Intercomparison Project CORE2-forced (OMIP-1) experiment by using the First Institute of Oceanography Earth System Model version 2.0 (FIO-ESM v2.0), and comprehensively evaluated the simulation results. Unlike other OMIP models, FIO-ESM v2.0 includes a coupled ocean surface wave component model that takes into account non-breaking surface wave-induced vertical mixing in the ocean and effect of surface wave Stokes drift on air-sea momentum and heat fluxes in the climate system. A sub-layer sea surface temperature (SST) diurnal cycle parameterization was also employed to take into account effect of SST diurnal cycle on air-sea heat ?uxes to improve simulations of air-sea interactions. Evaluations show that mean values and long-term trends of significant wave height were adequately reproduced in the FIO-ESM v2.0 OMIP-1 simulations, and there is a reasonable fit between the SST diurnal cycle obtained from in situ observations and that parameterized by FIO-ESM v2.0. Evaluations of model drift, temperature, salinity, mixed layer depth, and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation show that the model performs well in the FIO-ESM v2.0 OMIP-1 simulation. However, the summer sea ice extent of the Arctic and Antarctic is underestimated. 相似文献
14.
Threatening millions of people and causing billions of dollars in losses, tropical cyclones(TCs) are among the most severe natural hazards in the world, especially over the western North Pacific. However, the response of TCs to a warming or changing climate has been the subject of considerable research, often with conflicting results. In this study, the abilities of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP) Phase 6(CMIP6) models to simulate TC genesis are assessed through historical simulation... 相似文献
15.
To assess the performances of state-of-the-art global climate models on simulating the Arctic clouds and surface radiation balance, the 2001–2014 Arctic Basin surface radiation budget, clouds, and the cloud radiative effects(CREs) in 22 coupled model intercomparison project 6(CMIP6) models are evaluated against satellite observations. For the results from CMIP6 multi-model mean, cloud fraction(CF) peaks in autumn and is lowest in winter and spring, consistent with that from three satellite observation products(Cloud Sat-CALIPSO, CERESMODIS, and APP-x). Simulated CF also shows consistent spatial patterns with those in observations. However,almost all models overestimate the CF amount throughout the year when compared to CERES-MODIS and APP-x.On average, clouds warm the surface of the Arctic Basin mainly via the longwave(LW) radiation cloud warming effect in winter. Simulated surface energy loss of LW is less than that in CERES-EBAF observation, while the net surface shortwave(SW) flux is underestimated. The biases may result from the stronger cloud LW warming effect and SW cooling effect from the overestimated CF by the models. These two biases compensate each other,yielding similar net surface radiation flux between model output(3.0 W/m~2) and CERES-EBAF observation(6.1 W/m~2). During 2001–2014, significant increasing trend of spring CF is found in the multi-model mean,consistent with previous studies based on surface and satellite observations. Although most of the 22 CMIP6 models show common seasonal cycles of CF and liquid water path/ice water path(LWP/IWP), large inter-model spreads exist in the amounts of CF and LWP/IWP throughout the year, indicating the influences of different cloud parameterization schemes used in different models. Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project(CFMIP)observation simulator package(COSP) is a great tool to accurately assess the performance of climate models on simulating clouds. More intuitive and credible evaluation results can be obtained based on the COSP model output. In the future, with the release of more COSP output of CMIP6 models, it is expected that those inter-model spreads and the model-observation biases can be substantially reduced. Longer term active satellite observations are also necessary to evaluate models' cloud simulations and to further explore the role of clouds in the rapid Arctic climate changes. 相似文献
16.
BCC_CSM对北极海冰的模拟:CMIP5和CMIP6历史试验比较 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
本文利用北京气候中心气候系统模式(BCC_CSM)在最近两个耦合模式比较计划(CMIP5和CMIP6)的历史试验模拟结果，对北极海冰范围和冰厚的模拟性能进行了比较，结果表明:(1) CMIP6改善了CMIP5模拟海冰范围季节变化过大的问题，总体上更接近观测结果；(2)两个CMIP试验阶段中BCC_CSM模拟的海冰厚度都偏小，但CMIP6试验对夏季海冰厚度过薄问题有所改进。通过对影响海冰生消过程的冰面和冰底热收支的分析，我们探讨了上述模拟偏差以及CMIP6模拟结果改善的成因。分析表明，8?9月海洋热通量、向下短波辐射和反照率对模拟结果的误差影响较大，CMIP6试验在这些方面有较大改善；而12月至翌年2月，CMIP5模拟的北极海冰范围偏大主要是海洋热通量偏低所导致，CMIP6模拟的海洋热通量较CMIP5大，但北大西洋表层海流的改善才是巴芬湾附近海冰外缘线位置改善的主要原因。CMIP试验模拟的夏季海冰厚度偏薄主要是因为6?8月海洋热通量和冰面热收支都偏大，而CMIP6试验模拟的夏季海冰厚度有所改善主要是由于海洋热通量和净短波辐射的改善。海冰模拟结果的改善与CMIP6海冰模块和大气模块参数化的改进有直接和间接的关系，通过改变短波辐射、冰面反照率和海洋热通量，使BCC_CSM模式对北极海冰的模拟性能也得到有效提高。 相似文献
17.
18.
Response of the North Pacific subtropical countercurrent and its variability to global warming 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Response of the North Pacific subtropical countercurrent (STCC) and its variability to global warming is examined in a state-of-the-art
coupled model that is forced by increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. Compared with the present climate, the upper ocean
is more stratified, and the mixed layer depth (MLD) shoals in warmer climate. The maximum change of winter MLD appears in
the Kuroshio–Oyashio extension (KOE) region, where the mean MLD is the deepest in the North Pacific. This weakens the MLD
front and reduces lateral induction. As a result of the reduced subduction rate and a decrease in sea surface density in KOE,
mode waters form on lighter isopycnals with reduced thickness. Advected southward, the weakened mode waters decelerate the
STCC. On decadal timescales, the dominant mode of sea surface height in the central subtropical gyre represents STCC variability.
This STCC mode decays as CO2 concentrations double in the twenty-first century, owing both to weakened mode waters in the mean state and to reduced variability
in mode waters. The reduced mode-water variability can be traced upstream to reduced variations in winter MLD front and subduction
in the KOE region where mode water forms. 相似文献
19.
The Chukchi and Beaufort Seas include several important hydrological features： inflow of the Pacific water, Alaska coast current （ ACC ）, the seasonal to perennial sea ice cover, and landfast ice ＇along the Alaskan coast. The dynamics of this coupled ice-ocean system is important for both regional scale oceanography and large-scale global climate change research. A mumber of moorings were deployed in the area by JAMSTEC since 1992, and the data revealed highly variable characteristics of the hydrological environment. A regional high-resolution coupled ice-ocean model of the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas was established to simulate the ice-ocean environment and unique seasonal landfast ice in the coastal Beaufort Sea. The model results reproduced the Beaufort gyre and the ACC. The depthaveraged annual mean ocean currents along the Beaufort Sea coast and shelf hreak compared well with data from four moored ADCPs, but the simulated velocity had smaller standard deviations, which indicate small-scale eddies were frequent in the region. The model resuits captured the sea,real variations of sea ice area as compared with remote sensing data, and the simulated sea ice velocity showed an ahnost stationary area along the Beaufort Sea coast that was similar to the observed landfast ice extent. It is the combined effects of the weak oceanic current near the coast, a prevailing wind with an onshore component, the opposite direction of the ocean current, and the blocking hy the coastline that make the Beaufort Sea coastal areas prone to the formation of landfast ice. 相似文献
20.
对地球系统模式FIO-ESM同化实验中北极海冰模拟的评估 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
本文评估了地球系统模式FIO-ESM(First Institute of Oceanography-Earth System Model)基于集合调整Kalman滤波同化实验对1992-2013年北极海冰的模拟能力。结果显示:尽管同化资料只包括了全球海表温度和全球海面高度异常两类数据,而并没有对海冰进行同化,但实验结果能很好地模拟出与观测相符的北极海冰基本态和长期变化趋势,卫星观测和FIO-ESM同化实验所得的北极海冰覆盖范围在1992-2013年间的线性变化趋势分别为-7.06×105和-6.44×105 km2/(10a),同化所得的逐月海冰覆盖范围异常和卫星观测之间的相关系数为0.78。与FIO-ESM参加CMIP5(Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5)实验结果相比,该同化结果所模拟的北极海冰覆盖范围的长期变化趋势和海冰密集度的空间变化趋势均与卫星观测更加吻合,这说明该同化可为利用FIO-ESM开展北极短期气候预测提供较好的预测初始场。 相似文献