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1.
Urban effects of Chennai on sea breeze induced convection and precipitation   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  
Doppler radar derived wind speed and direction profiles showed a well developed sea breeze circulation over the Chennai, India region on 28 June, 2003. Rainfall totals in excess of 100 mm resulted from convection along the sea breeze front. Inland propagation of the sea breeze front was observed in radar reflectivity imagery. High-resolution MM5 simulations were used to investigate the influence of Chennai urban land use on sea breeze initiated convection and precipitation. A comparison of observed and simulated 10m wind speed and direction over Chennai showed that the model was able to simulate the timing and strength of the sea breeze. Urban effects are shown to increase the near surface air temperature over Chennai by 3.0K during the early morning hours. The larger surface temperature gradient along the coast due to urban effects increased onshore flow by 4.0m s−1. Model sensitivity study revealed that precipitation totals were enhanced by 25mm over a large region 150 km west of Chennai due to urban effects. Deficiency in model physics related to night-time forecasts are addressed.  相似文献   

2.
The present study describes an analysis of Asian summer monsoon forecasts with an operational general circulation model (GCM) of the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), U.K. An attempt is made to examine the influence of improved treatment of physical processes on the reduction of systematic errors. As some of the major changes in the parameterization of physical processes, such as modification to the infrared radiation scheme, deep cumulus convection scheme, introduction of the shallow convection scheme etc., were introduced during 1985–88, a thorough systematic error analysis of the ECMWF monsoon forecasts is carried out for a period prior to the incorporation of such changes i.e. summer monsoon season (June–August) of 1984, and for the corresponding period after relevant changes were implemented (summer monsoon season of 1988). Monsoon forecasts of the ECMWF demonstrate an increasing trend of forecast skill after the implementation of the major changes in parameterizations of radiation, convection and land-surface processes. Further, the upper level flow is found to be more predictable than that of the lower level and wind forecasts display a better skill than temperature. Apart from this, a notable increase in the magnitudes of persistence error statistics indicates that the monsoon circulation in the analysed fields became more intense with the introduction of changes in the operational forecasting system. Although, considerable reduction in systematic errors of the Asian summer monsoon forecasts is observed (up to day-5) with the introduction of major changes in the treatment of physical processes, the nature of errors remain unchanged (by day-10). The forecast errors of temperature and moisture in the middle troposphere are also reduced due to the changes in treatment of longwave radiation. Moreover, the introduction of shallow convection helped it further by enhancing the vertical transports of heat and moisture from the lower troposphere. Though, the hydrological cycle in the operational forecasts appears to have enhanced with the major modifications and improvements to the physical parameterization schemes, certain regional peculiarities have developed in the simulated rainfall distribution over the monsoon region. Hence, this study suggests further attempts to improve the formulations of physical processes for further reduction of systematic forecast errors.  相似文献   

3.
The objective of this study is to investigate the impact of a surface data assimilation (SDA) technique, together with the traditional four-dimensional data assimilation (FDDA), on the simulation of a monsoon depression that formed over India during the field phase of the 1999 Bay of Bengal Monsoon Experiment (BOBMEX). The SDA uses the analyzed surface data to continuously assimilate the surface layer temperature as well as the water vapor mixing ratio in the mesoscale model. The depression for the greater part of this study was offshore and since successful application of the SDA would require surface information, a method of estimating surface temperature and surface humidity using NOAA-TOVS satellites was used. Three sets of numerical experiments were performed using a coupled mesoscale model. The first set, called CONTROL, uses the NCEP (National Center for Environmental Prediction) reanalysis for the initial and lateral boundary conditions in the MM5 simulation. The second and the third sets implemented the SDA of temperature and moisture together with the traditional FDDA scheme available in the MM5 model. The second set of MM5 simulation implemented the SDA scheme only over the land areas, and the third set extended the SDA technique over land as well as sea. Both the second and third sets of the MM5 simulation used the NOAA-TOVS and QuikSCAT satellite and conventional upper air and surface meteorological data to provide an improved analysis. The results of the three sets of MM5 simulations are compared with one another and with the analysis and the BOBMEX 1999 buoy, ship, and radiosonde observations. The predicted sea level pressure of both the model runs with assimilation resembles the analysis closely and also captures the large-scale structure of the monsoon depression well. The central sea level pressures of the depression for both the model runs with assimilation were 2–4 hPa lower than the CONTROL. The results of both the model runs with assimilation indicate a larger spatial area as well as increased rainfall amounts over the coastal regions after landfall compared with the CONTROL. The impact of FDDA and SDA, the latter over land, resulted in reduced errors of the following: 1.45 K in temperature, 0.39 m s−1 in wind speed, and 14° in wind direction compared with the BOBMEX buoy observation, and 1.43 m s−1 in wind speed, 43° in wind direction, and 0.75% in relative humidity compared with the CONTROL. The impact of SDA over land and sea compared with SDA over land only showed a further marginal reduction of errors: 0.23 K in air temperature (BOBMEX buoy) and 1.33 m s−1 in wind speed simulations.  相似文献   

4.
Accurate wind modeling is important for wind resources assessment and wind power forecasting.To improve the WRF model configuration for the offshore wind modeling over the Baltic Sea,this study per-formed a sensitivity study of the WRF model to multiple model configurations,including domain setup,grid resolution,sea surface temperature,land surface data,and atmosphere-wave coupling.The simu-lated offshore wind was evaluated against LiDAR observations under different wind directions,atmo-spheric stabilities,and sea status.Generally,the simulated wind profiles matched observations,despite systematic underestimations.Strengthening the forcing from the reanalysis data through reducing the number of nested domains played the largest role in improving wind modeling.Atmosphere-wave cou-pling further improved the simulated wind,especially under the growing and mature sea conditions.Increasing the vertical resolution,and updating the sea surface temperature and the land surface infor-mation only had a slight impact,mainly visible during very stable conditions.Increasing the horizontal resolution also only had a slight impact,most visible during unstable conditions.Our study can help to improve the wind resources assessment and wind power forecasting over the Baltic Sea.  相似文献   

5.
Performance of a hybrid assimilation system combining 3D Var based NGFS (NCMRWF Global Forecast System) with ETR (Ensemble Transform with Rescaling) based Global Ensemble Forecast (GEFS) of resolution T-190L28 is investigated. The experiment is conducted for a period of one week in June 2013 and forecast skills over different spatial domains are compared with respect to mean analysis state. Rainfall forecast is verified over Indian region against combined observations of IMD and NCMRWF. Hybrid assimilation produced marginal improvements in overall forecast skill in comparison with 3D Var. Hybrid experiment made significant improvement in wind forecasts in all the regions on verification against mean analysis. The verification of forecasts with radiosonde observations also show improvement in wind forecasts with the hybrid assimilation. On verification against observations, hybrid experiment shows more improvement in temperature and wind forecasts at upper levels. Both hybrid and operational 3D Var failed in prediction of extreme rainfall event over Uttarakhand on 17 June, 2013.  相似文献   

6.
Performance of four mesoscale models namely, the MM5, ETA, RSM and WRF, run at NCMRWF for short range weather forecasting has been examined during monsoon-2006. Evaluation is carried out based upon comparisons between observations and day-1 and day-3 forecasts of wind, temperature, specific humidity, geopotential height, rainfall, systematic errors, root mean square errors and specific events like the monsoon depressions.It is very difficult to address the question of which model performs best over the Indian region? An honest answer is ‘none’. Perhaps an ensemble approach would be the best. However, if we must make a final verdict, it can be stated that in general, (i) the WRF is able to produce best All India rainfall prediction compared to observations in the day-1 forecast and, the MM5 is able to produce best All India rainfall forecasts in day-3, but ETA and RSM are able to depict the best distribution of rainfall maxima along the west coast of India, (ii) the MM5 is able to produce least RMSE of wind and geopotential fields at most of the time, and (iii) the RSM is able to produce least errors in the day-1 forecasts of the tracks, while the ETA model produces least errors in the day-3 forecasts.  相似文献   

7.
In this study, the Florida State University Global Spectral Model (FSUGSM), in association with a high-resolution nested regional spectral model (FSUNRSM), is used for short-range weather forecasts over the Indian domain. Three-day forecasts for each day of August 1998 were performed using different versions of the FSUGSM and FSUNRSM and were compared with the observed fields (analysis) obtained from the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The impact of physical initialization (a procedure that assimilates observed rain rates into the model atmosphere through a set of reverse algorithms) on rainfall forecasts was examined in detail. A very high nowcasting skill for precipitation is obtained through the use of high-resolution physical initialization applied at the regional model level. Higher skills in wind and precipitation forecasts over the Indian summer monsoon region are achieved using this version of the regional model with physical initialization. A relatively new concept, called the ‘multimodel/multianalysis superensemble’ is described in this paper and is applied for the wind and precipitation forecasts over the Indian subcontinent. Large improvement in forecast skills of wind at 850 hPa level over the Indian subcontinent is shown possible through the use of the multimodel superensemble. The multianalysis superensemble approach that uses the latest satellite data from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) has shown significant improvement in the skills of precipitation forecasts over the Indian monsoon region.  相似文献   

8.
Storm surge models usually do not take into account the explicit effect of wind gusts on the sea surface height. However, as the wind speed enters quadratically into the shallow water equations, short-term fluctuations around the mean value do not average out. We investigate the impact of explicitly added gustiness on storm surge forecasts in the North Sea, using the WAQUA/DCSM model. The sensitivity of the model results to gustiness is tested with Monte Carlo simulations, and these are used to derive a parametrisation of the effect of gustiness on characteristics of storm surges. With the parametrisation and input from the ECMWF model archive, we run hindcasts for a few individual cases and also the 2007–2008 winter storm season. Although the explicit inclusion of gustiness increases the surge levels, it does not help to explain, and hence reduce, the errors in the model results. Moreover, the errors made by ignoring gustiness are small compared to other errors. We conclude that, at present, there is no need to include gustiness explicitly in storm surge calculations for the North Sea.  相似文献   

9.
Surface meteorological parameters acquired during the field phase experiment, BOBMEX-99, for the stationary periods (SP I and II) of the ship ORV Sagar Kanya over Bay of Bengal have been analysed. Active and weak monsoon conditions were observed during the first and the second phase of the experiment respectively over India as well as over the stationary ship location. The phase mean sea surface temperature (SST) is found to be the same in both the phases, however large differences have been observed in the phase mean values of wind speed, mean sea level pressure, latent heat and momentum fluxes at air-sea interface. Synoptic scale monsoon disturbances formed only during the period of strong north-south pressure gradient over the Bay region. Events of prominent fall in SST and in the upper 15 m ocean layer mean temperature and salinity values during typical rainfall events are cited. The impact of monsoon disturbances on ocean-atmosphere interface transfer processes has been investigated.  相似文献   

10.
In the last thirty years great strides have been made by large-scale operational numerical weather prediction models towards improving skills for the medium range time-scale of 7 days. This paper illustrates the use of these current forecasts towards the construction of a consensus multimodel forecast product called the superensemble. This procedure utilizes 120 of the recent-past forecasts from these models to arrive at the training phase statistics. These statistics are described by roughly 107 weights. Use of these weights provides the possibility for real-time medium range forecasts with the superensemble. We show the recent status of this procedure towards real-time forecasts for the Asian summer monsoon. The member models of our suite include ECMWF, NCEP/EMC, JMA, NOGAPS (US Navy), BMRC, RPN (Canada) and an FSU global spectral forecast model. We show in this paper the skill scores for day 1 through day 6 of forecasts from standard variables such as winds, temperature, 500 hPa geopotential height, sea level pressure and precipitation. In all cases we noted that the superensemble carries a higher skill compared to each of the member models and their ensemble mean. The skill matrices we use include the RMS errors, the anomaly correlations and equitable threat scores. For many of these forecasts the improvements of skill for the superensemble over the best model was found to be quite substantial. This real-time product is being provided to many interested research groups. The FSU multimodel superensemble, in real-time, stands out for providing the least errors among all of the operational large scale models.  相似文献   

11.
Prediction of the track and intensity of tropical cyclones is one of the most challenging problems in numerical weather prediction (NWP). The chief objective of this study is to investigate the performance of different cumulus convection and planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterization schemes in the simulation of tropical cyclones over the Bay of Bengal. For this purpose, two severe cyclonic storms are simulated with two PBL and four convection schemes using non-hydrostatic version of MM5 modeling system. Several important model simulated fields including sea level pressure, horizontal wind and precipitation are compared with the corresponding verification analysis/observation. The track of the cyclones in the simulation and analysis are compared with the best-fit track provided by India Meteorological Department (IMD). The Hong-Pan PBL scheme (as implemented in NCAR Medium Range Forecast (MRF) model) in combination with Grell (or Betts-Miller) cumulus convection scheme is found to perform better than the other combinations of schemes used in this study. Though it is expected that radiative processes may not have pronounced effect in short-range forecasts, an attempt is made to calibrate the model with respect to the two radiation parameterization schemes used in the study. And the results indicate that radiation parameterization has noticeable impact on the simulation of tropical cyclones.  相似文献   

12.
In 2013, Indian summer monsoon witnessed a very heavy rainfall event (>30 cm/day) over Uttarakhand in north India, claiming more than 5000 lives and property damage worth approximately 40 billion USD. This event was associated with the interaction of two synoptic systems, i.e., intensified subtropical westerly trough over north India and north-westward moving monsoon depression formed over the Bay of Bengal. The event had occurred over highly variable terrain and land surface characteristics. Although global models predicted the large scale event, they failed to predict realistic location, timing, amount, intensity and distribution of rainfall over the region. The goal of this study is to assess the impact of land state conditions in simulating this severe event using a high resolution mesoscale model. The land conditions such as multi-layer soil moisture and soil temperature fields were generated from High Resolution Land Data Assimilation (HRLDAS) modelling system. Two experiments were conducted namely, (1) CNTL (Control, without land data assimilation) and (2) LDAS, with land data assimilation (i.e., with HRLDAS-based soil moisture and temperature fields) using Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) modelling system. Initial soil moisture correlation and root mean square error for LDAS is 0.73 and 0.05, whereas for CNTL it is 0.63 and 0.053 respectively, with a stronger heat low in LDAS. The differences in wind and moisture transport in LDAS favoured increased moisture transport from Arabian Sea through a convectively unstable region embedded within two low pressure centers over Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal. The improvement in rainfall is significantly correlated to the persistent generation of potential vorticity (PV) in LDAS. Further, PV tendency analysis confirmed that the increased generation of PV is due to the enhanced horizontal PV advection component rather than the diabatic heating terms due to modified flow fields. These results suggest that, two different synoptic systems merged by the strong interaction of moving PV columns resulted in the strengthening and further amplification of the system over the region in LDAS. This study highlights the importance of better representation of the land surface fields for improved prediction of localized anomalous weather event over India.  相似文献   

13.
针对两个最新换代的季度集合预测系统对中国季度降水预测中存在的系统缺陷,应用改进的贝叶斯联合概率模型（BJP）加以订正。对订正后的单一模式概率预测应用一种混合模型贝叶斯模型平均（BMA）方法加以集成,以综合各模式的优势来提高中国季度降水预测技巧。结果表明:BJP模型可有效地消除集合模式预测的系统偏差,同时大幅提高了概率预测的可靠性。经过订正的欧洲中尺度天气预报中心的 System4预测在许多季度在中国的很大区域范围内都显示出了一定的预测技巧;而澳洲气象局的POAMA2.4预测只在个别季度局部范围内具有技巧。使用BMA对订正后的单一模式预测进行集成可显著提高对中国季度降水预测的精度,相比单一模式预测,技巧得分为正值的网格百分率分别提高了13.3%和20.0%。  相似文献   

14.
An abnormal warming condition with 3?C5?°C rise in temperature above its normal value was observed in the Indian state of Odisha during 12?C16 November 2009. This study aims at examining the impact of additional weather observations obtained from the automatic weather stations (AWS) installed in the recent past on the numerical simulation of such abnormal warming. AWS observations, such as temperature at 2?m (T2m), dew point temperature at 2?m (Td2m), wind vector at 10?m (speed and direction), and sea level pressure (SLP) have been assimilated into the state-of-the-art Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model using the three-dimensional variational data assimilation (3DVAR). Six sets of experiments have been conducted here. There is no data assimilation in the control experiment, whereas AWS and radiosonde observations have been assimilated in rest of the five experiments. The model integrations have been made for 72?h in each experiment starting from 0000 UTC November 12 to 0000 UTC November 15, 2009. Assimilation experiments have also been performed to assess the impact of individual surface parameters on the model simulations. Impact of AWS observations on model simulation has been examined with reference to the control simulation and quantified in terms of root-mean-square error and forecast skill score for temperature, sea level pressure, and relative humidity at three selected stations Bonaigarh, Brahmagiri, and Nuapada in Odisha. Results indicate improvements in the surface air temperature and SLP simulations in the timescale of 72?h at all the three stations due to additional weather data assimilation into the model. Improvements in simulation are significant up to 24?h. The assimilation of additional wind fields significantly improved the temperature simulation at all the three stations. The simulated SLP has also improved significantly due to the assimilation of surface temperature and moisture.  相似文献   

15.
This paper describes the potential applicability of a hydrological–geotechnical modeling system using satellite-based rainfall estimates for a shallow landslide prediction system. The physically based distributed model has been developed by integrating a grid-based distributed kinematic wave rainfall-runoff model with an infinite slope stability approach. The model was forced by the satellite-based near real-time half-hourly CMORPH global rainfall product prepared by NOAA-CPC. The method combines the following two model outputs necessary for identifying where and when shallow landslides may potentially occur in the catchment: (1) the time-invariant spatial distribution of areas susceptible to slope instability map, for which the river catchment is divided into stability classes according to the critical relative soil saturation; this output is designed to portray the effect of quasi-static land surface variables and soil strength properties on slope instability and (2) a produced map linked with spatiotemporally varying hydrologic properties to provide a time-varying estimate of susceptibility to slope movement in response to rainfall. The proposed hydrological model predicts the dynamic of soil saturation in each grid element. The stored water in each grid element is then used for updating the relative soil saturation and analyzing the slope stability. A grid of slope is defined to be unstable when the relative soil saturation becomes higher than the critical level and is the basis for issuing a shallow landslide warning. The method was applied to past landslides in the upper Citarum River catchment (2,310 km2), Indonesia; the resulting time-invariant landslide susceptibility map shows good agreement with the spatial patterns of documented historical landslides (1985–2008). Application of the model to two recent shallow landslides shows that the model can successfully predict the effect of rainfall movement and intensity on the spatiotemporal dynamic of hydrological variables that trigger shallow landslides. Several hours before the landslides, the model predicted unstable conditions in some grids over and near the grids at which the actual shallow landslides occurred. Overall, the results demonstrate the potential applicability of the modeling system for shallow landslide disaster predictions and warnings.  相似文献   

16.
A five-level primitive equation model in a (x, y, p, t) coordinate system has been developed. A fairly sophisticated scheme of physical processes has been incorporated in the model. The model physics include air-sea interaction, cumulus parametrization, large scale condensation, dry convective adjustment, horizontal and vertical diffusion and simulated radiation. The initial balance between mass and motion fields has been obtained through a dynamic initialization scheme. The model has been integrated upto 48 hr using input data of a case of monsoon depression. The results of initialization and forecast have been presented and discussed. Wind, temperature and vertical velocity fields have been found to retain the observed map features; after the initialization, however, the surface pressure has been considerably modified. The model produced a reasonably good forecast up to 24 hr as far as the flow fields, rainfall region, structure of the depression and the movement of cyclonic circulation were concerned and beyond that damped rapidly. The rainfall rates were underestimated. Some of the shortcomings of the model are also discussed.  相似文献   

17.
Indian summer monsoon is a global scale phenomenon controlled by different land, ocean, and atmospheric parameters. Sea surface temperature (SST) and snow are two of the major parameters, which may alter the spatial and temporal patterns of circulation and rainfall during Indian summer monsoon. In the current paper, we study the monsoon variability using long integrations (20 years) of the Indian Institute of Technology Delhi (IITD) Spectral model at T80L18 resolution with observed and climatological SST and snow. Study shows response of IITD GCM in simulating the Indian summer monsoon rainfall and circulation relative to the snow and SST as boundary conditions. The model’s response to SST and snow is examined by conducting four types of experiments by varying observed and climatological values of snow and SST. This paper discusses the seasonal total rainfall for country as a whole and 850 and 200 hPa wind for the period of 20 years starting from 1985 to 2004. The model has been integrated in the ensemble mode with five different initial conditions from the last week of April and first week of May. The model is able to capture the climatological patterns of seasonal total rainfall and averaged wind at lower and upper levels. Observed snow in the presence of climatological SST as a boundary condition shows much impact on rainfall and circulation than observed SST in the presence of climatological snow. Model performance is good in simulating the normal and excess monsoon conditions; it shows poor skill in capturing deficit monsoon years.  相似文献   

18.
The very severe cyclonic storm Nargis of 2008 was a strong tropical cyclone that caused the deadliest natural disaster in the history of Myanmar. The time tested NCAR/PSU MM5 model has been used to simulate the Nargis cyclone, which is designed to have two domains covering the Bay of Bengal with horizontal resolutions of 90 and 30?km. The physics options chosen are Kain?CFritsch 2 for convection, Blackadar (BLA), Burk?CThompson, medium range forecast (MRF), Eta Mellor?CYamada (Eta MY) and Gayno?CSeaman (GS) for Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) and Simple Ice for explicit cloud physics processes. The experiment was conducted with the model integration starting from April 27, 2008, to May 3, 2008. The performance of the five PBL schemes is evaluated in terms of radius height cross-section of the three component winds, surface heat fluxes of sensible heat and latent heat, equivalent potential temperature (?? e ), precipitation, track and variation of Central Surface Pressure and wind speed with time. The numerical results show a large impact of the PBL schemes on the intensity and movement of the system. The intensity of the storm is examined in terms of pressure drop, strength of the surface wind and rainfall associated with the storm. The results are compared to the India Meteorological Department observations. These experiments indicate that the intensity of the storm is well simulated with the Eta MY and BLA with finer resolution. The simulated track with MRF compared well with the Joint Typhoon Warning Center observation at landfall position both with the 90 and 30?km resolutions.  相似文献   

19.
天津滨海新区被提到国家总体发展战略后,随着经济持续发展、城市化进程不断加速及产业转移,进行了大规模围海造陆,在拓展土地空间的同时,也造成了相当多的环境问题。利用滨海新区由陆到海的3条水文地质剖面获取的地下水动态变化监测数据和土壤含盐量测试结果,开展了围海造陆对沿海低地浅层地下水环境的影响研究。结果显示:1受围海造陆影响,对应的沿海低地浅层水位已经出现由陆到海逐渐增高的现象,造成地下水位反向倾斜,阻碍了地下水径流和排泄;2由陆到海浅表土壤全盐量出现逐渐增高的特征,在浅层地下水反向径流作用下,东部区域大量的盐分将被携带至沿海低地,使沿海低地盐渍化程度加重,严重影响到湿地保护和生态建设;3围海造陆对海岸带生态环境的影响是一个长期缓慢的过程,应持续监测近岸海域和陆域沿海低地生态环境的变化情况,以便提出合理的修复建议。  相似文献   

20.
Groundwater systems in coastal aquifers may be affected by sea level change as increased seawater intrusion occurs with sea level rise. Artificial pumping taking place at the same time will increase this impact. In order to estimate the vulnerability of groundwater systems with sea level rise within coastal aquifers in South Korea, long-term groundwater data were analyzed using basic statistics, trend analysis, and correlation analysis. Conductivity depth profiling was also periodically conducted. Groundwater levels increased in wells with relatively low groundwater elevations but decreased in wells with higher groundwater elevations. At the same time, conductivity variations were greater in wells located in reclaimed land areas, which vertical conductivity profiles indicated were more affected by sea level variations, but decreased on the mainland. Results of auto-correlation analysis showed a decreasing trend with cyclic variations and significant periodic patterns during dry seasons, indicating that groundwater levels were not affected by artificial factors and that those in reclaimed land areas were less affected by rainfall than on the mainland. These results coincided with those from cross-correlation analysis showing that groundwater level was affected by sea level variation during the dry season. Sea level changes, which may be related to climate change, as well as rainfall in South Korea can influence groundwater levels, and the groundwater system in reclaimed land areas may be more affected than on the mainland, especially under dry conditions.  相似文献   

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