首页 | 本学科首页   官方微博 | 高级检索  
相似文献
 共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 234 毫秒
1.
Numerous modeling approaches are available to provide insight into the relationship between climate change and groundwater recharge. However, several aspects of how hydrological model choice and structure affect recharge predictions have not been fully explored, unlike the well-established variability of climate model chains—combination of global climate models (GCM) and regional climate models (RCM). Furthermore, the influence on predictions related to subsoil parameterization and the variability of observation data employed during calibration remain unclear. This paper compares and quantifies these different sources of uncertainty in a systematic way. The described numerical experiment is based on a heterogeneous two-dimensional reference model. Four simpler models were calibrated against the output of the reference model, and recharge predictions of both reference and simpler models were compared to evaluate the effect of model structure on climate-change impact studies. The results highlight that model simplification leads to different recharge rates under climate change, especially under extreme conditions, although the different models performed similarly under historical climate conditions. Extreme weather conditions lead to model bias in the predictions and therefore must be considered. Consequently, the chosen calibration strategy is important and, if possible, the calibration data set should include climatic extremes in order to minimise model bias introduced by the calibration. The results strongly suggest that ensembles of climate projections should be coupled with ensembles of hydrogeological models to produce credible predictions of future recharge and with the associated uncertainties.  相似文献   

2.
The average temperature of Thailand is projected to increase by 2-3 °C, and the annual rainfall is projected to increase by 25% and up to 50% in certain areas. The climate change in future is expected to provide changes in hydrological cycle and therefore impacts the groundwater resources too. In this study, we analyzed the general climate change trends and reviewed the groundwater conditions of Thailand. The climate changes, hydrologic variability and the impact of climate change on groundwater sustainability are also discussed based on a national groundwater monitoring program. Currently, there are 864 groundwater monitoring stations and 1 524 monitoring wells installed in Thailand. Moreover, the impact of climate change on groundwater-dependent systems and sectors is also discussed according to certain case studies, such as saline water intrusion in coastal and inland areas. Managing aquifer recharge and other projects are examples of groundwater adaptation project for the future.  相似文献   

3.
Climate change can impact the hydrological processes of a watershed and may result in problems with future water supply for large sections of the population. Results from the FP5 PRUDENCE project suggest significant changes in temperature and precipitation over Europe. In this study, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was used to assess the potential impacts of climate change on groundwater recharge in the hydrological district of Galicia-Costa, Spain. Climate projections from two general circulation models and eight different regional climate models were used for the assessment and two climate-change scenarios were evaluated. Calibration and validation of the model were performed using a daily time-step in four representative catchments in the district. The effects on modeled mean annual groundwater recharge are small, partly due to the greater stomatal efficiency of plants in response to increased CO2 concentration. However, climate change strongly influences the temporal variability of modeled groundwater recharge. Recharge may concentrate in the winter season and dramatically decrease in the summer–autumn season. As a result, the dry-season duration may be increased on average by almost 30 % for the A2 emission scenario, exacerbating the current problems in water supply.  相似文献   

4.
Episodic recharge and climate change in the Murray-Darling Basin, Australia   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
In semi-arid areas, episodic recharge can form a significant part of overall recharge, dependant upon infrequent rainfall events. With climate change projections suggesting changes in future rainfall magnitude and intensity, groundwater recharge in semi-arid areas is likely to be affected disproportionately by climate change. This study sought to investigate projected changes in episodic recharge in arid areas of the Murray-Darling Basin, Australia, using three global warming scenarios from 15 different global climate models (GCMs) for a 2030 climate. Two metrics were used to investigate episodic recharge: at the annual scale the coefficient of variation was used, and at the daily scale the proportion of recharge in the highest 1% of daily recharge. The metrics were proportional to each other but were inconclusive as to whether episodic recharge was to increase or decrease in this environment; this is not a surprising result considering the spread in recharge projections from the 45 scenarios. The results showed that the change in the low probability of exceedance rainfall events was a better predictor of the change in total recharge than the change in total rainfall, which has implications for the selection of GCMs used in impact studies and the way GCM results are downscaled.  相似文献   

5.
The hyper-arid conditions prevailing in Agua Verde aquifer in northern Chile make this system the most important water source for nearby towns and mining industries. Due to the growing demand for water in this region, recharge is investigated along with the impact of intense pumping activity in this aquifer. A conceptual model of the hydrogeological system is developed and implemented into a two-dimensional groundwater-flow numerical model. To assess the impact of climate change and groundwater extraction, several scenarios are simulated considering variations in both aquifer recharge and withdrawals. The estimated average groundwater lateral recharge from Precordillera (pre-mountain range) is about 4,482 m3/day. The scenarios that consider an increase of water withdrawal show a non-sustainable groundwater consumption leading to an over-exploitation of the resource, because the outflows surpasses inflows, causing storage depletion. The greater the depletion, the larger the impact of recharge reduction caused by the considered future climate change. This result indicates that the combined effects of such factors may have a severe impact on groundwater availability as found in other groundwater-dependent regions located in arid environments. Furthermore, the scenarios that consider a reduction of the extraction flow rate show that it may be possible to partially alleviate the damage already caused to the aquifer by the continuous extractions since 1974, and it can partially counteract climate change impacts on future groundwater availability caused by a decrease in precipitation (and so in recharge), if the desalination plant in Taltal increases its capacity.  相似文献   

6.
A method of estimating groundwater recharge, based on water-balance components using the SWAT-MODFLOW model (an integrated surface water-groundwater model), is described. A multi-reservoir storage routing module is suggested instead of a single storage routing module in SWAT; this represents a more realistic delay in the travel of water through the vadose zone. By using this module, the parameter related to the delay time can be optimized by checking the correlation between simulated recharge and observed groundwater levels. The final step of this procedure is to compare simulated groundwater levels as well as the simulated watershed stream flow with the observed groundwater levels and watershed stream flow. This method is applied to the Mihocheon watershed in South Korea to estimate spatio-temporal groundwater recharge distribution. The computed annual recharge rate is compared with the independently estimated recharge rate using BFLOW. The hydrologic modelling results show that the annual average recharge rate should be estimated by a long-term continuous simulation with a distributed hydrologic modelling technique.  相似文献   

7.

Three-dimensional transient groundwater flow and saltwater transport models were constructed to assess the impacts of groundwater abstraction and climate change on the coastal aquifer of Tra Vinh province (Vietnam). The groundwater flow model was calibrated with groundwater levels (2007–2016) measured in 13 observation wells. The saltwater transport model was compared with the spatial distribution of total dissolved solids. Model performance was evaluated by comparing observed and simulated groundwater levels. The projected rainfalls from two climate models (MIROC5 and CRISO Mk3.6) were subsequently used to simulate possible effects of climate changes. The simulation revealed that groundwater is currently depleted due to overabstraction. Towards the future, groundwater storage will continue to be depleted with the current abstraction regime, further worsening in the north due to saltwater intrusion from inland trapped saltwater and on the coast due to seawater intrusion. Notwithstanding, the impact from climate change may be limited, with the computed groundwater recharge from the two climate models revealing no significant change from 2017 to 2066. Three feasible mitigation scenarios were analyzed: (1) reduced groundwater abstraction by 25, 35 and 50%, (2) increased groundwater recharge by 1.5 and 2 times in the sand dunes through managed aquifer recharge (reduced abstraction will stop groundwater-level decline, while increased recharge will restore depleted storage), and (3) combining 50% abstraction reduction and 1.5 times recharge increase in sand dune areas. The results show that combined interventions of reducing abstraction and increasing recharge are necessary for sustainable groundwater resources development in Tra Vinh province.

  相似文献   

8.
A shallow unconfined low-lying coastal aquifer in southern Finland surrounded by the Baltic Sea is vulnerable to changes in groundwater recharge, sea-level rise and human activities. Assessment of the intrinsic vulnerability of groundwater under climate scenarios was performed for the aquifer area by utilising the results of a published study on the impacts of climate change on groundwater recharge and sea-level rise on groundwater–seawater interaction. Three intrinsic vulnerability mapping methods, the aquifer vulnerability index (AVI), a modified SINTACS and GALDIT, were applied and compared. According to the results, the degree of groundwater vulnerability is greatly impacted by seasonal variations in groundwater recharge during the year, and also varies depending on the climate-change variability in the long term. The groundwater is potentially highly vulnerable to contamination from sources on the ground surface during high groundwater recharge rates after snowmelt, while a high vulnerability to seawater intrusion could exist when there is a low groundwater recharge rate in dry season. The AVI results suggest that a change in the sea level will have an insignificant impact on groundwater vulnerability compared with the results from the modified SINTACS and GALDIT. The modified SINTACS method could be used as a guideline for the groundwater vulnerability assessment of glacial and deglacial deposits in inland aquifers, and in combination with GALDIT, it could provide a useful tool for assessing groundwater vulnerability to both contamination from sources on the ground surface and to seawater intrusion for shallow unconfined low-lying coastal aquifers under future climate-change conditions.  相似文献   

9.
针对常用的利用降水入渗系数法确定的降水入渗补给量不随降水频率等因素而变化的弊端,利用郑州市地下水均衡试验场地中渗透仪长时间观测的系列资料,通过对降水—降水入渗补给量进行系统响应分析,建立了4种岩性、5个水位埋深的年际和月际的降水—降水入渗补给响应函数.研究结果表明,根据当期及前期的年、月降水量数据,利用系统响应分析法建立的降水入渗补给函数能比较准确地计算相应地区的降水入渗补给量.  相似文献   

10.
Temporal and spatial changes of the hydrological cycle are the consequences of climate variations. In addition to changes in surface runoff with possible floods and droughts, climate variations may affect groundwater through alteration of groundwater recharge with consequences for future water management. This study investigates the impact of climate change, according to the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A1B, A2 and B1, on groundwater recharge in the catchment area of a fissured aquifer in the Black Forest, Germany, which has sparse groundwater data. The study uses a water-balance model considering a conceptual approach for groundwater-surface water exchange. River discharge data are used for model calibration and validation. The results show temporal and spatial changes in groundwater recharge. Groundwater recharge is progressively reduced for summer during the twenty-first century. The annual sum of groundwater recharge is affected negatively for scenarios A1B and A2. On average, groundwater recharge during the twenty-first century is reduced mainly for the lower parts of the valley and increased for the upper parts of the valley and the crests. The reduced storage of water as snow during winter due to projected higher air temperatures causes an important relative increase in rainfall and, therefore, higher groundwater recharge and river discharge.  相似文献   

11.
The effects of climate change on the groundwater systems in the Grote-Nete catchment, Belgium, covering an area of 525 km2, is modeled using wet (greenhouse), cold or NATCC (North Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation Change) and dry climate scenarios. Low, central and high estimates of temperature changes are adopted for wet scenarios. Seasonal and annual water balance components including groundwater recharge are simulated using the WetSpass model, while mean annual groundwater elevations and discharge are simulated with a steady-state MODFLOW groundwater model. WetSpass results for the wet scenarios show that wet winters and drier summers are expected relative to the present situation. MODFLOW results for wet high scenario show groundwater levels increase by as much as 79 cm, which could affect the distribution and species richness of meadows. Results obtained for cold scenarios depict drier winters and wetter summers relative to the present. The dry scenarios predict dry conditions for the whole year. There is no recharge during the summer, which is mainly attributed to high evapotranspiration rates by forests and low precipitation. Average annual groundwater levels drop by 0.5 m, with maximum of 3.1 m on the eastern part of the Campine Plateau. This could endanger aquatic ecosystem, shrubs, and crop production.  相似文献   

12.
Most studies using GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) data for examining water storage anomalies have rich hydrogeological databases. Here, GRACE data are analyzed for southern Mali, Africa, a region with sparse hydrogeological data. GRACE data (2002?C2008) did not overlap with observed groundwater-level data (1982?C2002). Terrestrial water storage from GRACE was corrected for soil moisture using the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) model to obtain monthly groundwater storage anomalies and annual net recharge. Historical storage anomalies and net recharge were determined using the water-table fluctuation method for available observation wells. Average annual net recharge averaged 149.1?mm (or 16.4% of annual rainfall) and 149.7?mm (14.8%) from historical water level and GRACE data, respectively. Monthly storage anomaly lows and peaks were observed in May and September, respectively, but have a shift in peak to November using the corrected GRACE data, suggesting that the GLDAS model may poorly predict the timing of soil-water storage in this region. Notwithstanding problems with the GLDAS model, the soil moisture-corrected GRACE data accurately predict the relative timing and magnitude of groundwater-storage changes, suggesting that GRACE data are valuable for identifying long-term regional changes in groundwater storage in areas with sparse hydrogeological data.  相似文献   

13.
An overview is presented of existing groundwater-age data and their implications for assessing rates and timescales of recharge in selected unconfined aquifer systems of the United States. Apparent age distributions in aquifers determined from chlorofluorocarbon, sulfur hexafluoride, tritium/helium-3, and radiocarbon measurements from 565 wells in 45 networks were used to calculate groundwater recharge rates. Timescales of recharge were defined by 1,873 distributed tritium measurements and 102 radiocarbon measurements from 27 well networks. Recharge rates ranged from?<?10 to 1,200?mm/yr in selected aquifers on the basis of measured vertical age distributions and assuming exponential age gradients. On a regional basis, recharge rates based on tracers of young groundwater exhibited a significant inverse correlation with mean annual air temperature and a significant positive correlation with mean annual precipitation. Comparison of recharge derived from groundwater ages with recharge derived from stream base-flow evaluation showed similar overall patterns but substantial local differences. Results from this compilation demonstrate that age-based recharge estimates can provide useful insights into spatial and temporal variability in recharge at a national scale and factors controlling that variability. Local age-based recharge estimates provide empirical data and process information that are needed for testing and improving more spatially complete model-based methods.  相似文献   

14.
Groundwater recharge sets a constraint on aquifer water balance in the context of water management. Historical data on groundwater and other relevant hydrological processes can be used to understand the effects of climatic variability on recharge, but such data sets are rare. The climate of the Canadian prairies is characterized by large inter-annual and inter-decadal variability in precipitation, which provides opportunities to examine the response of groundwater recharge to changes in meteorological conditions. A decadal study was conducted in a small (250 km2) prairie watershed in Alberta, Canada. Relative magnitude of annual recharge, indicated by water-level rise, was significantly correlated with a combination of growing-season precipitation and snowmelt runoff, which drives depression-focussed infiltration of meltwater. Annual precipitation was greater than vapour flux at an experimental site in some years and smaller in other years. On average precipitation minus vapour flux was 10 mm y?1, which was comparable to the magnitude of watershed-scale groundwater recharge estimated from creek baseflow. Average baseflow showed a distinct shift from a low value (4 mm y?1) in 1982–1995 to a high value (15 mm y?1) in 2003–2013, indicating the sensitivity of groundwater recharge to a decadal-scale variability of meteorological conditions.  相似文献   

15.
Forty major perennial springs, under different lithological controls, in a part of Kashmir Himalaya in India were studied to understand the response of spring discharges to regional climate variability. The average monthly spring discharge is high in Triassic Limestone-controlled springs (karst springs) and low in alluvium- and Karewa-controlled springs. In general, the measured monthly spring discharges show an inverse relation with the monthly precipitation data. However, a direct correlation exists between the spring discharges and the degree of snow/ice melt. The results suggest that the creation of a low and continuous (but stable) recharge from the Triassic Limestone and Panjal Trap aquifers, due to blockage of groundwater flow between strata with contrasting hydraulic conductivity, attenuates the discharge and gives rise to small fluctuations in the alluvium- and Karewa-controlled springs. The average monthly discharge of the karst and alluvial springs showed an overall decreasing trend for two and a half decades, with the lowest discharge recorded in 2001. The study revealed that the regional/global warming and below-normal precipitation in the period of snow accumulation (PSA) has triggered the receding of glaciers and attenuation of spring discharges.  相似文献   

16.
The Kucuk Menderes River Basin in western Turkey has been facing continuous groundwater-level decline for decades. Previous studies have suggested that, to avoid aquifer depletion in the basin, artificial recharge structures should be constructed. To assess artificial aquifer recharge potential in one of the subbasins, a two-dimensional (2-D) groundwater model was set up using SEEP/W software. The material functions and parameters used in the model for both saturated and unsaturated conditions were taken from previous studies. The model has been calibrated under transient conditions. The excess runoff volume that could be collected in the recharge basins was estimated from flood frequency analysis. Various scenarios were simulated to observe the change in groundwater level and storage with respect to different exceedance probabilities. Simulation results suggest that a significant increase in groundwater storage is achieved by applying surface artificial-recharge methods. In addition to the recharge basins, to reinforce the effect of artificial recharge, simulations are repeated with underground dam construction at the downstream side of the basin. Although groundwater storage is increased with the addition of the dam, the increase in groundwater storage was not sufficient to warrant the construction.  相似文献   

17.
应用统计降尺度方法预估江淮流域未来降水   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2       下载免费PDF全文
统计降尺度方法广泛应用于弥补大气环流模式(GCM)模拟区域气候变化能力较弱的不足。利用1960~2009年的NCEP/NCAR再分析资料和江淮流域52个站点降水观测资料,通过敏感性分析,针对4个季节分别选择10个大尺度预测因子,采用主成分分析(PCA)和支持向量机(SVM)相结合的方法,建立了江淮流域降水统计降尺度模型。检验结果表明,该模型获取的江淮流域降水的偏差显著减小,能够描述降水在月、年尺度的变化,适用于HadCM3输出的大尺度气候场,具有预测未来降水变化的能力。将统计降尺度模型应用于HadCM3在A2情景下输出的2020~2099年大尺度预测因子,分3个时段:2020~2039年,2050~2069年和2080~2099年,从年和季节两个时间尺度分析江淮流域未来降水变化。结果表明,相对1960~1999年,未来3个时段的降水有小幅增加,其中2080~2099年增幅最大,为3.6 mm;在未来3个时段的不同季节,降水变化呈现出不同特征。  相似文献   

18.
A methodology is presented for assessing the average changes in groundwater recharge under a future climate. The method is applied to the 1,060,000 km2 Murray-Darling Basin (MDB) in Australia. Climate sequences were developed based upon three scenarios for a 2030 climate relative to a 1990 climate from the outputs of 15 global climate models. Dryland diffuse groundwater recharge was modelled in WAVES using these 45 climate scenarios and fitted to a Pearson Type III probability distribution to condense the 45 scenarios down to three: a wet future, a median future and a dry future. The use of a probability distribution allowed the significance of any change in recharge to be assessed. This study found that for the median future, climate recharge is projected to increase on average by 5% across the MDB but this is not spatially uniform. In the wet and dry future scenarios the recharge is projected to increase by 32% and decrease by 12% on average across the MDB, respectively. The differences between the climate sequences generated by the 15 different global climate models makes it difficult to project the direction of the change in recharge for a 2030 climate, let alone the magnitude.  相似文献   

19.
The processes and rates of groundwater recharge in arid and semiarid environments are highly related to local climate parameters, particularly precipitation. The chloride profile of an unsaturated zone in an arid and semiarid region can be used to infer the recharge history and past changes in climate, by extension. In this study, a 17-m chloride profile was collected from the sandy loess in the northwestern Chinese Loess Plateau, which also lies in the transition zone between desert and loess. A 71-year groundwater recharge history was reconstructed using the chloride mass balance method with an annual Cl? input of 0.84 g/m2/year. The reconstructed history revealed a long-term decline in recharge with multiple shorter-term oscillations. Five recharge stages between 1938–1946, 1947–1955, 1956–1975, 1976–2000, and 2001–2008 AD were identified, where the lowest average recharge value was 25.1 mm/a in 1976–2000 AD and the highest was 71.7 mm/a in 1947–1955 AD. Climate conditions during these five periods were also inferred based on the reconstructed recharge rates with the knowledge that high recharge corresponds to more humid climates. The climate over the past 71 years generally became drier in the study area, despite some fluctuations. The reconstructed recharge rates, calculated from 1/Cl? in the profile, exhibited the same variability as annual precipitation measured in the region, both in long- and short-term oscillations over the period from 1955 to 2008. The chloride concentration variations in the profile, indicating changes in recharge flux, also well correlated with annual precipitation anomalies in the region to the east of 100°E in China for the whole study period. These comparisons verified that it is feasible to study not only groundwater recharge, but also past climate change using a chloride profile from the sandy loess area. The results suggested that unsaturated zones of sandy loess may be valuable archives for reconstructing recharge history and regional paleoclimate changes in the region.  相似文献   

20.
土壤水资源的变化和补给特征研究   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5  
夏自强  李琼芳 《水文》2001,21(5):1-5
阐述了土壤水资源的结构，利用实验和观测资料分析了土壤含水量、包气带蓄水量、土壤蒸散发量的空间分布特点，通过观测和模型模拟计算的成果分析了土壤蓄水量和土壤蒸散发量多年平均变化过程，以及不同地下水埋深时大气降水、地下水对土壤水资源补给过程和补给特点。  相似文献   

设为首页 | 免责声明 | 关于勤云 | 加入收藏

Copyright©北京勤云科技发展有限公司  京ICP备09084417号