共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 820 毫秒
1.
针对传统的AHP型脆弱性指数法在权重确定方面的不足,采用熵权法对其改进,将熵权法计算的客观权重与AHP法计算的主观权重进行加权平均,综合确定各主控因素诱发突水的权重比例。在综合分析长平煤矿水文地质资料的基础上,应用GIS建立主控因素专题图并进行归一化处理,运用基于GIS的改进AHP型脆弱性指数法确定各主控因素权重,建立井田西部3号煤底板奥灰突水危险性评价模型。利用自然间断点分级法确定了分区阈值,将研究区按突水危险性的相对大小分为5个区域。评价结果符合实际,对煤矿安全生产具有重要的现实意义。 相似文献
2.
煤层底板突水突变模型 总被引：32，自引：1，他引：31
本文建立了煤层底板突水的一个尖点突变 (cusp)模型 ,并分析了煤层底板失稳破坏发生突水的机制。基于定态曲面方程 ,可求得煤层底板水压应力比 Ip。当 Ip 1时 ,发生突水 ;当 Ip 1时 ,不会发生突水。基于分支曲线方程 ,可求得煤层底板突水临界采动导水裂隙带深度 h1l,当 h1 h1l 时 ,发生突水 ;当 h1 h1l 时 ,不会发生突水。 相似文献
3.
The no. 11 coal seam in the deep area of Hancheng mining area is mining in recent years, which is threatened by the water inrush from the Ordovician limestone aquifer. Coal-floor water inrush is governed by the water abundance of coal-floor aquifer, the water-resisting performance of coal-floor aquitard, and the pathway connecting the water source and the working face. To make an accuracy risk assessment of water inrush from the no. 11 coal seam floor, a GIS-based vulnerability index method (VIM) is adopted for its superior comprehensive consideration of more controlling factors, powerful spatial analysis, and intuitively display functions. This study firstly established an index system including the water pressure of the coal-floor aquifer, the unit water inflow, the thickness, the core recovery percentage, the thickness ratio of brittle rocks to ductile rocks, the thickness of effective aquitard, and the accumulated length of faults and folds, of which the former six indexes governed the water abundance of the coal-floor aquifer which was combined with the last two factors to determine the risk of coal-floor water inrush. Secondly, the thematic map of each controlling factor is established by GIS using the geological prospecting data, and the weight of each factor is determined by the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) after consulting the expert review panel. At last, a vulnerability index is obtained and used to assess the risk of coal-floor water inrush of the no. 11 coal seam. The risk of water inrush of the no. 11 coal seam of the study area was ranked to three zones: the southeastern shallow area in red color is the dangerous zone, the wide northwestern area in green color is the safe zone, and the transition area in yellow color is the moderate-risk zone. Compared with the actual water-inrush incidents, the risk assessment result was verified to achieve an accuracy of 82.35%, which is proved to be a dependable reference for the prevention and controlling of coal-floor water inrush of the no. 11 coal seam in Hancheng mining area. 相似文献
4.
Ground water inrush from underlying coal seam aquifers is a serious geohazard during coal mining in China. In order to effectively predict coal floor water inrush, the evaluation index system and evaluation standard for coal floor water inrush, containing quantitative indexes and qualitative indexes, is established on the base of conditions of aquifer and aquiclude, geologic structure and mining disturbance. Simultaneously, grey relational analysis and analytic hierarchy process are used to establish an evaluation model which efficiently overcomes the uncertainty between indexes of water inrush effects and really reflects the degree of importance for each index of water inrush effects. The model is applied to the typical working face of Yuzhou coalfield in the north of China to demonstrate the evaluation process. Compared to the water inrush coefficient method which is widely used for evaluating coal floor water inrush, the presented evaluation model in this paper accords more with the susceptibility of coal floor water inrush by multi-factor and is of nonlinear dynamic characteristics of highly complicated formation mechanism. This method offers a new tool in the assessment of ground water inrush in mine. 相似文献
5.
煤层深部开采使得煤矿底板水害事故频发,传统突水危险性评价方法评价指标单一、评价结果偏离实际的弊端逐渐显露,造成众多新型评价方法涌现。以河北省华北型煤田东欢坨矿为研究对象,选取含水层性能、隔水层性能、地质条件、煤层条件的评价因素集,综合考虑10个评价因素,建立适用于东欢坨矿的底板突水危险性评价指标体系;利用层次分析法确定各指标主观权重,利用CRITIC法确定各指标客观权重,将2者耦合得到综合权重,兼顾专家主观经验与数据客观信息,保证权重确定的全面性;引入加权秩和比法,构建评价矩阵,依据指标对评价对象所产生的优劣性影响将其分为高优型指标和低优型指标,编秩计算WRSR值,对数据进行分档排序,确定安全、较安全、较危险、危险4个评价等级区间,形成评价模型;利用GIS强大的空间管理及信息处理功能,完成结果的信息展示;将评价结果与实际工程出水位置相比较,发现突水位置都在底板突水较危险区域,并与传统评价方法突水系数法相对比,证明评价模型有效。研究成果形成了煤层底板突水危险性评价新方法,丰富煤层底板突水危险性评价方法的种类,为煤矿防治水工作者提供新思路。 相似文献
6.
Mining-induced water inrush is a sudden and destructive underground disaster caused by a mining disturbance. This disaster occurs frequently in the northern region of Shaanxi province in China due to overburden fractures in shallow seam mining, which pose a great threat to residents’ safety. It is therefore essential to construct an accurate prediction model. This study first applies selection hierarchy analysis to the main controlling factors of roof water inrush to study their weights using an analytic hierarchy process (AHP) including five factors: surface water catchment features, wateriness of the aquifer, water-resistant characteristics of aquiclude, combined influence of overburden, and mining disturbance characteristics. The grey relational analysis (GRA) method is used to calculate the correlation degree of each water inrush. The AHP-GRA method presents a comprehensive evaluative model combining the advantages of both approaches to analyze mining safety. Qualitative and quantitative indicators of the roof water inrush prediction model in shallow seam mining are established. Secondly, risk prediction of roof water inrush points and comprehensive water inrush is determined using engineering examples from the Hanjiawan coal mine. Results indicate that during safety mining, water inflow data are consistent with our prediction, thereby substantiating the model’s accuracy and providing a new method for predicting roof water inrush in shallow seam mining. 相似文献
7.
针对煤层底板突水预测问题,在总结现有突水预测方法和理论的基础上,通过特征选择实验得出水压、距工作面距离、砂岩段厚度、煤层厚度、煤层倾角、断层落差、裂隙带、开采面积、采高、走向长度是影响突水发生的主要因素,这些因素具有复杂、非线性的特点。提出基于长短时记忆（LSTM）神经网络构建的突水预测模型,将煤矿突水实例的数据作为样本数据对模型进行训练。最后,将LSTM神经网络模型与遗传算法-反向传播（GA-BP）神经网络模型和反向传播（BP）神经网络模型进行对比实验。实验结果表明,LSTM神经网络模型在测试集上的预测正确率更高,稳定性更好,更适用于煤层底板突水预测。 相似文献
8.
9.
Method for assessing coal-floor water-inrush risk based on the variable-weight model and unascertained measure theory 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Qiang Wu Dekang Zhao Yang Wang Jianjun Shen Wenping Mu Honglei Liu 《Hydrogeology Journal》2017,25(7):2089-2103
Water inrush from coal-seam floors greatly threatens mining safety in North China and is a complex process controlled by multiple factors. This study presents a mathematical assessment system for coal-floor water-inrush risk based on the variable-weight model (VWM) and unascertained measure theory (UMT). In contrast to the traditional constant-weight model (CWM), which assigns a fixed weight to each factor, the VWM varies with the factor-state value. The UMT employs the confidence principle, which is more effective in ordered partition problems than the maximum membership principle adopted in the former mathematical theory. The method is applied to the Datang Tashan Coal Mine in North China. First, eight main controlling factors are selected to construct the comprehensive evaluation index system. Subsequently, an incentive-penalty variable-weight model is built to calculate the variable weights of each factor. Then, the VWM-UMT model is established using the quantitative risk-grade divide of each factor according to the UMT. On this basis, the risk of coal-floor water inrush in Tashan Mine No. 8 is divided into five grades. For comparison, the CWM is also adopted for the risk assessment, and a differences distribution map is obtained between the two methods. Finally, the verification of water-inrush points indicates that the VWM-UMT model is powerful and more feasible and reasonable. The model has great potential and practical significance in future engineering applications. 相似文献
10.
The prediction and prevention of floor water inrush is directly related to the safety of the coal mine production. The previous evaluation method of floor water inrush was more one-sided and lacked main control factors related to mining conditions. In order to evaluate the floor water inrush more accurately, under the project background of geological data of Wanglou coal mine, stope width, mining depth, fault scale index, water pressure, water abundance and thickness of aquifer were selected as main controlling factors of floor water inrush. Combined with the subjective weight analytical hierarchy process and the objective weight variation coefficient method, the weight coefficients corresponding to the main controlling factors were obtained respectively. The thematic map of the risk assessment of coal seam floor water inrush was drawn by combining the constructed comprehensive weight vulnerability index model and geographic information system. The results show that: ① according to the actual geological data of mine, two fault related factors were removed. And stope width and mining depth were increased as the main controlling factors to evaluate floor water inrush. It is easier to compare and calculate the weight of evaluation factors. ② The constructed comprehensive weight vulnerability index model can comprehensively evaluate the risk of floor water inrush. And the results of the evaluation are more accurate. ③ The related thematic maps can directly reflect the risk of floor water inrush, which is of guiding significance for the prediction and prevention of coal seam floor water inrush. 相似文献
11.
准确圈定煤矿工作面底板突水预警重点监测区域,实现监测位置和潜在突水点位置在空间上的匹配,是突水灾害预警急需解决的问题之一。为研究煤矿工作面底板突水灾害预警重点监测区域评价技术,采用水文地质分析、GIS空间分析及ANN预测等技术手段,建立了底板突水灾害预警重点监测区域评价指标体系,提出了将不连续指标转化为连续指标的方法,建立了评价模型,研发了重点监测区域评价GIS系统,实现了煤矿底板突水灾害预警重点监测区域GIS与ANN耦合评价技术,最后以赵庄煤矿5303回采工作面底板突水监测预警为例,利用研发的系统圈定了该工作面重点监测区域。研究表明,确定预警重点监测区域的影响因素主要有含水层水压、含水层富水性、含水层防（隔）水煤岩柱厚度、老空区危险性指数、断层危险性指数、陷落柱危险性指数和封闭不良钻孔危险性指数,利用分段函数可以有效将不连续指标转化为连续指标,研发的评价系统可以实现煤矿突水灾害预警监测位置自动评价,评价结果与现场揭露及水害预警系统监测结果一致。 相似文献
12.
In order to improve the accuracy of floor water inrush assessment, the risk prediction model of floor water inrush was established by combining the principal component logistic regression analysis (PCLRA) and GIS spatial geographic analysis. In this paper, the geological data of Pandao coal mine was taken as the engineering background. First of all, main controlling factors of floor water inrush were determined and quantified. Next, PCLRA was used to determine the weight of each factor and establish the mathematical model for predicting the floor water inrush. And then, GIS’s spatial analysis and data processing function was used to draw related single factor thematic maps. Related thematic maps were weighted superposed to draw a floor water inrush zoning map based on PCLRA mathematical model. The study areas were divided into five levels by Jenks optimization method and vulnerability index initial model. And the corresponding threshold range was determined. The results show that (1) the high sensitivity factors in floor failure depth were added to evaluate the water inrush, and the fault fractal dimension was used to replace the fault structure related factors, and the main controlling factors of floor water inrush are more comprehensive; (2) the fitting degree of PCLRA model is high and the test accuracy is 83.3%; (3) the prediction results were well fitted to the actual position of water inrush (three water inrush points are located in the dangerous area, and two water inrush points are located in the relatively dangerous area). 相似文献
13.
Groundwater inrush is a geohazard that can significantly impact safe operations of the coal mines in China. Its occurrence
is controlled by many factors and processes are often not amenable to mathematical expressions. To evaluate the water inrush
risk, Professor Wu and his colleagues have proposed the vulnerability index approach by coupling the artificial neural network
(ANN) and geographic information system (GIS). The detailed procedures of using this innovative approach are shown in a case
study. Firstly, the powerful spatial data analysis functions of GIS was used to establish the thematic layer of each of the
main factors that control the water inrush, and then to choose the training sample on the thematic layer with the ANN-BP Arithmetic.
Secondly, the ANN evaluation model of the water inrush was established to determine the threshold value for each risk level
with a histogram of the water inrush vulnerability index. As a result, the mine area was divided into four regions with different
vulnerability levels and they served as the general guidelines for the mine operations. 相似文献
14.
煤矿(床)水文地质学是研究煤炭资源开发过程中地下水活动规律以及为防止其对采煤工程的不利影响,保护矿区生态环境的一门应用性地质学科,对煤矿安全生产工作具有重要的推动作用。近年来,在保水采煤技术、华北型煤田防治水技术体系、陷落柱发育规律及其治理技术、煤层底板含水层注浆改造保障技术等方面取得了重要进展。随着煤炭开采强度和开采规模的进一步扩大,学科发展面临着诸如老空水及陷落柱探测、矿坑充水条件变化、矿井水患实时评价及治理等重大问题。提出了在学科发展中应优先解决诸如“三高”(高地压、高地温、高水压)地质条件下煤矿突水机理、西部地区煤炭资源开发过程中突水溃砂机理、水资源承载力及其调蓄技术、矿井水资源化及其合理利用研究以及综放开采条件下冒裂带发育规律研究等科学问题。 相似文献
15.
深埋煤层采场顶板泥砂溃涌灾害是由于泥岩顶板遇水发生松散崩解,在矿压作用下泥砂集中溃入井下的综合性灾害,其灾害发生受到含水层、矿山压力、地质构造等多因素影响。以黄陇煤田照金煤矿为研究区,在灾害发生机理研究的基础上,讨论了灾害发生的主要影响因子,最终选取洛河组含水层富水性、煤层到洛河组含水层距离、宜君组砾岩厚度、煤层上覆杂色泥岩厚度、煤层到杂色泥岩距离、单位面积断层密度、褶皱构造分布和煤层开采厚度8个主控因素,采用层次分析权重赋值方法,确定影响灾害发生的各主控因素权重,构建煤层顶板泥砂溃涌灾害危险性评价数学模型;绘制主控因素专题图并进行栅格赋值,通过信息融合叠加方法将各因素进行叠加,最终形成多源信息融合的照金煤矿煤层顶板泥砂溃涌灾害综合分区。研究结果表明,照金煤矿ZF202工作面所在区域该类灾害发生的危险性高,与实际开采过程中曾发生的“4·25”重大事故发生区域较为吻合,说明本次危险性评价模型构建合理,分区结果可用于指导矿井的开采布设与泥砂溃涌灾害防治。移动阅读 相似文献
16.
在煤矿开采过程中,矿井水害事故频繁发生。为快速准确地找出矿井突水水源,降低矿井突水给煤矿生产带来的危害,以赵各庄矿为例,运用独立性权系数与模糊可变理论相结合的方法,选取了Na+,Ca2+,Mg2+,Cl-,SO42-和HCO3-6种水化学指标,对赵各庄矿的20组水样数据进行分析计算。结果表明:独立性权系数-模糊可变理论模型排除了水样中各指标间冗余信息的影响,克服了水样各变量间权重难以确定以及变量对水质影响不均匀的问题,可在一定程度上保证突水水源识别模型的准确度;Cl-权重值远大于其他各项化学指标的权重值,即Cl-对突水水源的识别结果影响较大;采用本文所建模型判别赵各庄矿的8组测试水样,判别准确率达87.5%,表明该模型在矿井突水水源识别中具有重要参考价值。 相似文献
17.
煤矿突水事故时有发生,易造成重大人员财产损失,而优化突水救援路径,将提高矿井突水灾害应急救援能力,降低突水危害。本文采用无向图和邻接表对矿井巷道网络进行描述和存储,根据巷道水位高度与井下人员身高的比值计算巷道安全系数,进而求解巷道等效长度,据此,使用优化SPFA算法进行单源路线搜索,提出矿井突水救援路线模型,并给出最优救援路线。以王家岭矿的巷道拓扑网络结构为基础进行仿真分析,结果表明,基于优化SPFA算法的矿井突水救援模型可以正确地计算出单源最优路线。该方法综合考虑了工作人员被井巷塌方或水流所阻而不可通行的复杂情况,为实现快速有效的事故抢险提供了可靠的技术支持。 相似文献
18.
Hydrogeological data are generally incomplete and inaccurate in amalgamated coal mines in China, which results in inaccuracy in water inrush forecasts. To enhance the precision of the prediction of water inrush from coal floor in an amalgamated coal mine, the vulnerability index method was developed using an analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to analyze the water inrush hazard. Six factors related to water inrush were selected and the corresponding single factor thematic map was established through geographic information system (GIS). The AHP model was built to calculate the weight of each factor. The final forecast map based on vulnerability index was acquired by superposing the six thematic maps. The forecast map was consistent with the real water inrush position. The sensitivity of the six factors was analyzed and the water-resisting layer played a significant role in controlling water inrush. Several suggestions about water inrush prevention were put forward based on the prediction results. 相似文献
19.
地应力是影响矿井突水的重要因素之一,是存在于地壳中的重要能量场条件。采用现场应力解除法对开滦矿区多个矿井进行了地应力测试,分析了研究区现今地应力分布规律,在此基础上,建立了煤层底板突水危险性与岩石力学性质及地应力之间的相关关系和模型,对范各庄矿12煤层底板和东欢坨矿12-2煤层底板突水危险性进行了评价。研究结果表明,本区地壳浅部现代地应力作用较强,整体处于近东西向挤压应力场中,在挤压应力作用下,煤岩层应力状态主要表现为水平主应力大于垂直主应力,原岩应力主要由构造应力和自重应力场构成。煤层底板突水危险性受岩石力学条件和地应力所控制,当岩石破裂压力大于水压（Pf〉Pw）,则不产生突水;若岩石破裂压力小于水压时,则有可能突水。当承压水的水压（Pw）小于最小水平主应力（σhmin）时,不会产生突水。只有当承压水的水压（Pw）大于最小水平主应力（σhmin）时,存在突水危险性。范各庄矿12煤层底板和东欢坨矿12-2煤层底板破裂压力（Pf）和最小主应力（σhmin）均大于其底板岩体承受的水压（Pw）,本区在无构造破坏卸压条件下是不会发生底板突水的。 相似文献
20.
基于我国东部许多大水矿区煤炭资源日渐枯竭,衰老矿井涌水量变化巨大的现状,以灰色系统理论为基础,提出了一种新的矿井涌水量预测组合模型——GM (1,1)–Markov–新陈代谢组合模型以及用于预测结果综合评价的指数Z。模型验证结果表明,该组合模型的预测结果优于其他模型,减小了序列数据波动性大、新旧信息更替差异所造成的误差,能够较好地解决时间跨度下采空区残留涌水、意外突水等不确定因素对衰老矿井涌水量预测精度和可靠性的影响。将该组合模型及其他模型应用于开滦集团荆各庄衰老矿井涌水量的预测,结果显示:GM (1,1)–Markov–新陈代谢组合模型的综合评价指数最高,达到0.475;荆各庄矿2011—2015年的矿井涌水量将分别为13.055 m3/min、12.730 m3/min、12.579 m3/min、12.493 m3/min和12.503 m3/min。 相似文献