共查询到18条相似文献，搜索用时 250 毫秒
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自然灾害脆弱性曲线研究进展 总被引：12，自引：2，他引：10
在全球变化与全球化背景下自然灾害风险逐年增大,灾害评估就成为风险防范的重要基础。灾害评估包括灾情估算与风险评估2个方面,而脆弱性分析是把灾害与风险研究紧密联系起来的重要桥梁。脆弱性曲线作为定量精确评估承灾体脆弱性的方法,近年来在多领域被广泛运用,成为灾情估算、风险定量分析以及风险地图编制的关键环节。从致灾因子角度综述脆弱性曲线的研究进展,重点阐述基于灾情数据、已有曲线、调查和模型的脆弱性曲线构建。研究表明脆弱性曲线构建由单曲线向多曲线库、单一参数向综合参数、单一方法向多领域综合应用发展,具有综合化和精细化的趋势。进一步开展多领域、多方法综合脆弱性曲线研究,对灾损快速评估及风险评价,防灾减灾具有重要意义。 相似文献
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气候变化对洪水灾害影响研究进展 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1
气候变化背景下包括洪水在内的极端天气与气候事件频发已引起国际社会的广泛关注,研究气候变化对洪水灾害的影响既是全面理解气候变化影响的重要内容,也是减轻洪水灾害风险的实际需要。从气象水文和灾害风险两大领域综述了气候变化对洪水灾害影响的研究进展,从反映洪水灾害系统的雨情、水情和灾情角度,全面总结了当前国内外对极端降水、极端径流和洪水损失的变化及归因研究,梳理了研究方法与研究成果方面的主要进展及存在的问题,并探讨了未来的研究方向。指出加强数据积累,完善气候模式与水文模型的耦合,加强承灾体脆弱性及其变化的评估,综合洪水致灾过程与灾情结果的分析,推动气象水文与灾害风险学科领域的交叉研究应成为未来研究的重点。 相似文献
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陈仁升 沈永平 毛炜峄 张世强 吕海深 刘永强 刘章文 房世峰 张伟 陈春艳 韩春坛 刘俊峰 赵求东 郝晓华 李如琦 秦艳 黄维东 赵成先 王书峰 《地球科学进展》2021,36(3):233-244
针对全球变化背景下极端升温、暴雪和雪面雨等事件增多以及我国西北干旱区融雪洪水灾害风险增大问题,简要概述了干旱区融雪洪水预报预警系统及其关键技术的研究进展,重点阐述了近年来发生频率增加、灾害风险大,但在干旱区未引起重视的雪面雨洪水的研究进展,提出了西北干旱区融雪洪水高精度预报预警所面临的关键科学问题,指出需在揭示干旱区融雪洪水灾害致灾机理、成灾机制及其演化规律基础上,研发干旱区融雪洪水灾害监测预警装置并构建立体监测体系,研究雨雪冰混合洪水形成及演进过程并建立模型,构建洪水风险评估指标体系,建成干旱区融雪洪水智能化预报预警决策支持平台,动态展示流域实时、潜在及未来超标准融雪洪水的淹没范围,评估风险程度,并提出防洪技术和工程方案以及洪水资源化利用途径等应对措施. 相似文献
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考虑台风导致的高水位和海浪波高对风暴潮灾害的贡献,对1949年以来影响青岛地区的台风暴潮进行了抽样统计.基于二维的泊松冈贝尔逻辑分布模式,对海岸地区的致灾风暴潮进行了长期的随机分析.与传统的警戒水位法不同,新模式能够反映多种环境荷载的综合作用,推算了青岛地区的特大台风暴潮灾害的重现期.计算结果显示,二维复合分布模式适合于描述台风暴潮过程中极值水位与相应波高的联合概率,所得结论对青岛地区的防潮减灾规划和工程建设具有指导意义. 相似文献
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目前承灾体易损性评估尚处于经验评估阶段,制约了单体滑坡灾害财产风险评估的定量化程度。为此,针对典型承灾体（建筑结构物）,提出一种单体滑坡灾害财产风险评估模型。认为财产风险是坡体失稳概率、承灾体在滑坡作用下的失效概率以及承灾体价值的乘积。避开了易损性评估,从一个新的角度来评估滑坡灾害财产风险。通过研究,验证了该模型正确反映了滑坡成灾过程中各种因素对财产风险的影响,从而为单体滑坡灾害财产风险的定量化评估提供了新的途径。另外以该模型应用研究为基础,提出承灾体安全范围的概念,对于每一个承灾体而言,将单体滑坡灾害影响范围划分为：危险区域、相对危险区域和安全区域,为建设工程选址或场地风险评估提供了实用指标,具有一定的工程实用价值。 相似文献
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自然灾害灾情评估研究与实践进展 总被引：7，自引：2，他引：5
自然灾害灾情评估是科学开展灾害管理工作的基础。灾情评估以单次灾害过程的灾前预评估、灾中应急评估、灾后综合评估以及区域灾情评估为主要内容,基于历史灾情统计资料的评估方法、基于承灾体易损性的评估方法、现场抽样调查统计方法、遥感图像或航片识别法、基层统计上报方法、经济学方法等是灾情评估的主要方法。灾情评估的目标从对灾情的估算和统计扩展到对灾情大小的分级,评估内容上逐步重视灾害的社会经济影响评估,评估方法上注重多种方法的综合应用,以及建立灾情评估系统是灾情评估研究与应用的主要发展方向。国内外研究和实践成果在减灾工作中的实际应用亟待加强,迫切需要形成包括对单次灾害过程的灾前预评估、灾中应急评估、灾后综合评估以及区域灾情综合评估在内的自然灾害灾情评估的内容体系、评估指标体系、评估标准体系和评估方法体系。 相似文献
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我国冰冻圈及其变化的脆弱性与评估方法 总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0
基于脆弱性研究文献,从脆弱性概念、评估内容、评估方法等方面系统总结了脆弱性评估研究的特点和趋势,开展脆弱性评估时应注意的系统、关注特征、灾害、尺度与时间等五个方面,剖析了区域尺度脆弱性评估涉及的一系列问题,介绍了脆弱性评估方法及其优缺点和适用性.探讨了我国冰冻圈及其变化的脆弱性概念,分析了二者之间的关系,论述了我国冰冻圈及其变化的脆弱性评估内容、评估尺度和评估方法. 相似文献
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The coastal area of Guangdong Province is one of the most developed regions in China. It is also often under severe risk of storm surges, as one of the few regions in China which are seriously threatened by storm surges. Based on the data of storm surges in the study area in the past 30 years, the return periods of 18 tide stations for storm surge are calculated separately. Using the spatial analysis technology of ArcGIS, combined with the topography data of the study area, the submerged scope for storm surge in the coastal area of Guangdong Province is determined, and the hazard assessment is carried out. According to the view of systematic point, this article quotes the result of vulnerability assessment which was done by the author in the previous research. Based on the hazard evaluation and vulnerability evaluation, risk assessment of storm surges in the study region is done, and the risk zoning map is drawn. According to the assessment, Zhuhai, Panyu and Taishan are classified as the highest risk to storm surges in Guangdong Province; Yangdong, Yangjiang and Haifeng are in higher risk to storm surges; Dongguan, Jiangmen, Baoan and Huidong are in middle risk to storm surges; Zhongshan, Enping, Shanwei, Huiyang, Longgang and Shenzhen are in lower risk of storm surges; Guangzhou, Shunde and Kaiping are in the lowest risk to storm surges. This study builds a complete process for risk assessment of storm surges. It reveals the risk of storm surges in the coastal cities, and it would guide the land use of coastal cities in the future and provide scientific advices to the government for the prevention and mitigation of storm surge disaster. It has important theoretical and practical significance. 相似文献
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We here discuss the concept of the magnitude and the intensity of disaster of a storm surge and propose a method of calculation
based on the principle of the wind scale and the earthquake magnitude. The magnitude of a storm surge is the quantitative
index that describes the scale of the storm surge, and the intensity of disaster of a storm surge is the quantitative index
that describes the losses caused by the storm surge. 相似文献
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The economic loss caused by the storm surgedisasters is much higher than that caused by anyother marine disaster in China, the loss from the severestorm surge disaster being the highest. Statistics showthat there were 62 typhoon landings over the east-southeastcoast of China since 1990, three of which,occurring in 1992, 1994 and 1997, respectively, caused themost severe damage. The direct economic lossesdue to these events are 9.3, 17.0 and 30 billion yuan(RMB, or about 1.7, 2.6 and 3.8 billion USD,respectively), which is much greater than the loss of 5.5billion yuan (RMB) on an average every year duringthe 1989–1991 period. This paper makes a comparativeanalysis of the damage caused by the three events andpresents an overview of progress of precautions againststorm surge disaster in China. The suggestedcounter measures to mitigate the loss from the severe stormsurge disasters in China is as follows: (1) Raisethe whole society awareness of precaution against severestorm surge disaster; (2) Work out a new plan forbuilding sea walls; (3) Improve and perfect the availablewarning and disaster relief command system; (4)Develop the insurance service in order to promptly mitigatethe loss caused by severe storm surge disaster event. 相似文献
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针对滑坡风险在水电工程进行坝址比选时量化评价的问题,提出了基于滑坡风险评价的坝址比选研究方法,在综合考虑滑坡危险性分析、易损性分析和破坏性评价的基础上,引入滑坡体重要性系数、工程影响系数、距离模数、滑坡体状况系数、工况发生年概率等5个指标参数,综合考虑滑坡体客观情况与人类活动影响因素,建立以年期望值为指标的水电工程滑坡灾害评价体系。用坝址安全风险指标、堵江引起发电量损失指标、河道清淤指标、库内清淤指标、涌浪破坏损失指标、人口易损性指标和自然易损性指标等指标作为标准对坝址选择进行风险综合评价,可有效避免在安全风险指标相似情况下坝址风险确定难的问题。通过对滑坡体造成的破坏损失评价,运用安全与经济性相平衡原则,得出基于风险评价的坝址比选结果。以雅砻江卡拉水电站坝址选择为计算实例,得出同一量纲下的计算分析结果,该结果更直观可靠,为坝址比选提供了依据。 相似文献
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Gazi Md. Khalil 《Natural Hazards》1993,8(3):263-281
A very severe cyclonic storm with wind speeds of over 240 km/h struck the coastal areas of Bangladesh in the full moon night of 29 April 1991. The path of the eye, close to the shore, raised a storm surge of unusual height, reportedly more than 9 m above the mean sea level, which devastated the offshore islands and the mainland coast. The damage to the physical infrastructure of the port of Chittagong and adjoining industrial area has been colossal, and recovery will take years. Death tolls from the cyclone, storm surge and its aftermath exceeded 145 000 making it one of the world's major natural disasters of this century.This paper is concerned with examining the magnitude and intensity of the disaster. It analyses how the people of Bangladesh, and the environment in which they live, were affected by the cyclone. A brief account is presented of loss of life and of the damage suffered in various sectors, including agriculture, industry, and physical infrastructure.The paper lays emphasis on the need of building a sufficient number of multipurpose cyclone shelters in the disaster-prone coastal areas of Bangladesh. Adequate measures should be taken for evacuating people from vulnerable areas and putting them into these shelters in the event of a cyclonic storm. Simplification of the current cyclone warning system is recommended.The difficulties of providing relief to the survivors are discussed. And finally, the need for improvement of the communication infrastructure in the coastal areas is highlighted. 相似文献
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三峡库区地质灾害易损性模糊综合评价 总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2
地质灾害是灾害危险性对承灾体易损性综合作用的结果,减灾应从减少地质灾害的发生频率和降低其易损性入手,限于目前的科学水平,人们难以改变地质灾害的发生过程,那么降低地质灾害易损性就成为减灾的重要措施,因此进行灾害易损性评价就显得尤为重要。本文以三峡库区为研究区,选取人口密度、国内生产总值密度等指标,运用模糊综合评判对其进行了定量评估。由于各指标因子在地质灾害易损性中的作用具有模糊性,因此运用模糊模型进行评价具有一定的意义。将库区地质灾害易损性程度划分为4个等级,研究结果表明,三峡库区地质灾害易损性程度总体较高。易损度较高的地区应强化减灾意识、调整人口结构以及加大防灾投入,以降低本地区的地质灾害易损性。 相似文献
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Assessing future risk: quantifying the effects of sea level rise on storm surge risk for the southern shores of Long Island, New York 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1
Christine C. Shepard Vera N. Agostini Ben Gilmer Tashya Allen Jeff Stone William Brooks Michael W. Beck 《Natural Hazards》2012,60(2):727-745
Sea level rise threatens to increase the impacts of future storms and hurricanes on coastal communities. However, many coastal
hazard mitigation plans do not consider sea level rise when assessing storm surge risk. Here we apply a GIS-based approach
to quantify potential changes in storm surge risk due to sea level rise on Long Island, New York. We demonstrate a method
for combining hazard exposure and community vulnerability to spatially characterize risk for both present and future sea level
conditions using commonly available national data sets. Our results show that sea level rise will likely increase risk in
many coastal areas and will potentially create risk where it was not before. We find that even modest and probable sea level
rise (.5 m by 2080) vastly increases the numbers of people (47% increase) and property loss (73% increase) impacted by storm
surge. In addition, the resulting maps of hazard exposure and community vulnerability provide a clear and useful example of
the visual representation of the spatial distribution of the components of risk that can be helpful for developing targeted
hazard mitigation and climate change adaptation strategies. Our results suggest that coastal agencies tasked with managing
storm surge risk must consider the effects of sea level rise if they are to ensure safe and sustainable coastal communities
in the future. 相似文献