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1.
An effective and efficient planning of an urban growth and land use changes and its impact on the environment requires information about growth trends and patterns amongst other important information. Over the years, many urban growth models have been developed and used in the developed countries for forecasting growth patterns. In the developing countries however, there exist a very few studies showing the application of these models and their performances. In this study two models such as cellular automata (CA) and the SLEUTH models are applied in a geographical information system (GIS) to simulate and predict the urban growth and land use change for the City of Sana’a (Yemen) for the period 2004–2020. GIS based maps were generated for the urban growth pattern of the city which was further analyzed using geo-statistical techniques. During the models calibration process, a total of 35 years of time series dataset such as historical topographical maps, aerial photographs and satellite imageries was used to identify the parameters that influenced the urban growth. The validation result showed an overall accuracy of 99.6 %; with the producer’s accuracy of 83.3 % and the user’s accuracy 83.6 %. The SLEUTH model used the best fit growth rule parameters during the calibration to forecasting future urban growth pattern and generated various probability maps in which the individual grid cells are urbanized assuming unique “urban growth signatures”. The models generated future urban growth pattern and land use changes from the period 2004–2020. Both models proved effective in forecasting growth pattern that will be useful in planning and decision making. In comparison, the CA model growth pattern showed high density development, in which growth edges were filled and clusters were merged together to form a compact built-up area wherein less agricultural lands were included. On the contrary, the SLEUTH model growth pattern showed more urban sprawl and low-density development that included substantial areas of agricultural lands.  相似文献   

2.
The rapid development of cities in developing countries results in deteriorating of agricultural lands. The majority of these agricultural lands are converted to urban areas, which affects the ecosystems. In this research, an integrated model of Markov chain and cellular automata models was applied to simulate urban land use changes and to predict their spatial patterns in Tripoli metropolitan area, Libya. It is worth mentioning that there is not much research has been done about land use/cover change in Libyan cities. In this study, the performance of integrated CA–Markov model was assessed. Firstly, the Markov chain model was used to simulate and predict the land use change quantitatively; then, the CA model was applied to simulate the dynamic spatial patterns of changes explicitly. The urban land use change from 1984 to 2010 was modelled using the CA–Markov model for calibration to compute optimal transition rules and to predict future land use change. In validation process, the model was validated using Kappa index statistics which resulted in overall accuracy more than 85 %. Finally, based on transition rules and transition area matrix produced from calibration process, the future land use changes of 2020 and 2025 were predicted and mapped. The findings of this research showed reasonably good performance of employed model. The model results demonstrate that the study area is growing very rapidly especially in the recent decade. Furthermore, this rapid urban expansion results in remarkable continuous decrease of agriculture lands.  相似文献   

3.
Semi-arid environments are generally more sensitive to urbanization than humid regions in terms of both hydrologic modifications and water resources sustainability. The current study integrates hydrologic modeling and land use projections to predict long-term impacts of urbanization on hydrologic behavior and water supply in semi-arid regions. The study focuses on the Upper Santa Clara River basin in northern Los Angeles County, CA, USA, which is undergoing rapid and extensive development. The semi-distributed Hydrologic Simulation Program Fortran (HSPF) model is parameterized with land use, soil, and channel characteristics of the study watershed. Model parameters related to hydrologic processes are calibrated at the daily time step using various spatial configurations of precipitation and parameters. Potential urbanization scenarios are generated on the basis of a regional development plan. The calibrated (and validated) model is run under the proposed development scenarios for a 10 year period. Results reveal that increasing development increases total annual runoff and wet season flows, while decreases are observed in existing baseflow and groundwater recharge during both dry and wet seasons. As development increases, medium-sized storms increase in both peak flow and overall volume, while low and high flow events (extremes) appear less affected. Urbanization is also shown to decrease natural recharge and, when considered at the regional scale, may result in a loss of critical water supply to Southern California. The current study provides a coupled framework for a decision support tool that can guide efforts involved in regional urban development planning and water supply management.  相似文献   

4.
Understanding factors that drive urban growth is essential to cellular automata (CA) based urban modeling. Multicollinearity among correlated factors may cause negative effects when building CA transition rules, leading to a decrease in simulation accuracy. We use a nonparametric generalized additive model (GAM) to evaluate these relationships through flexible smooth functions to capture the dynamics of urban growth. A GAM-based CA (termed GAM-CA) model was then developed to simulate the rapid urban growth in Shanghai, China from 2000 to 2015. GAM highlights the significance of each candidate factor driving urban growth during the past 15 years. Compared to logistic regression, the GAM-CA transition rules fitted the observed data better and yielded improved overall accuracy and hence more realistic urban growth patterns. The new CA model has great potential for capturing key driving factors to simulate dynamic urban growth, and can predict future scenarios under various spatial constraints and conditions.  相似文献   

5.
Effective information regarding environmental responses to future land-use and climate change scenarios provides useful support for decision making in land use planning, management and policies. This study developed an approach for modeling and examining the impacts of future land-use and climate change scenarios on streamflow, surface runoff and groundwater discharge using an empirical land-use change model, a watershed hydrological model based on various land use policies and climate change scenarios in an urbanizing watershed in Taiwan. The results of the study indicated that various demand and conversion policies had different levels of impact on hydrological components in all land-use scenarios in the study watershed. Climate changes were projected to have a greater impact in increasing surface runoff and reducing groundwater discharge than are land use changes. Additionally, the spatial distributions of land-use changes also influenced hydrological processes in both downstream and upstream areas, particularly in the downstream watershed. The impacts on hydrological components when considering both land use and climate changes exceeded those when only considering land use changes or climate changes, particularly on surface runoff and groundwater discharge. However, the proposed approach provided a useful source of information for assessing the responses of land use and hydrological processes to future land use and climate changes.  相似文献   

6.
《上海国土资源》2012,33(1):1-8
2012年1月10日,中国土地学会顾问（原副理事长兼学术委员会主任）、南京农业大学土地管理学院王万茂教授,接受了《上海国土资源》期刊的专访。王教授介绍了国内外土地规划理论与实践的发展与最新动向,指出土地规划的本质与特征,强调须结合国情编制具有指导性和切实可行的土地利用总体规划;结合城市土地利用总体规划与城市总体规划的＂两规合一＂工作,指出必须注重两者的共性与差异,在基础数据方面尤其应该实现统一;土地利用规划调整优化与具体实施,应同时考虑土地的数量与质量,并须合理保障环境生态的用地需求;应当加强土地规划中不确定性研究;土地利用规划的未来发展应体现社会化、生态化、信息化、计量化、综合化,以更好地发挥作用和实效。  相似文献   

7.
A fully distributed, physically-based hydrologic modeling system, MIKE SHE, was used in this study to investigate whole-watershed hydrologic response to land use changes within the Gyeongancheon watershed in Korea. A grid of 200 × 200 m was established to represent spatial variations in geology, soil, and land use. Initial model performance was evaluated by comparing observed and simulated streamflow from 1988 to 1991. Results indicated that the calibrated MIKE SHE model was able to predict streamflow well during the calibration and validation periods. Proportional changes in five classes of land use within the watershed were derived from multi-temporal Landsat TM imageries taken in 1980, 1990 and 2000. These imageries revealed that the watershed experienced conversion of approximately 10% non-urban area to urban area between 1980 and 2000. The calibrated MIKE SHE model was then programmed to repeatedly analyze an artificial dataset under the various land use proportions identified in the Landsat TM imageries. The analysis was made to quantitatively assess the impact of land use changes (predominantly urbanization) on watershed hydrology. There were increases in total runoff (5.5%) and overland flow (24.8%) as a response to the land use change.  相似文献   

8.
This article demonstrates a key role that geoscience and geoscientists could be playing in promoting sustainable catchment and resource management. A new geoscience-based approach supported by a landscape-genesis (LG) model was employed to provide an alternative approach for integrated catchment management and sustainable resource use and development. The Ben Chifley Catchment case study is used to explain the application of the approach and the landscape-genesis model. The study confirmed that lithological composition, tectonic and diagenetic processes, and landform were critical factors in determining the intrinsic properties and variation in soil type, land use, land capability, steepness of terrain, erosion, and resource degradation within the catchment. The landscape-genesis model, which is based on the geological and geomorphic genesis of the landscape, proved to be a powerful tool to predict the inherent carrying capacity and resilience of the various biophysical systems in the catchment. Although this approach is still in its infancy, its application has demonstrated that it has a strong potential in terms of undertaking sound integrated assessment, predicting potential resource degradation under different land uses, and developing sound management practices and solutions to advance the goal of ecological sustainability.  相似文献   

9.
While the concept of urban agriculture investigates the way in which disused land within the consolidated city is returned to its citizens through a variety of farming practices, many pockets of rural land in peri-urban areas continue to be contested by institutions and communities – including informal farmers, formal farmers, municipal planners, metropolitan agencies, and investors – with contrasting interests. To date however, little scholarly attention has been paid to informal practices within the degraded areas of urban fringes and, more specifically, to the link between the expansion of peri-urban agriculture and the civic appropriation and negotiation of space in neglected peripheral areas. In this paper, we ask how a metropolitan sustainability fix is produced and contested both materially and discursively. We also explore how local residents involved in peri-urban agriculture claim the use of land for agricultural practices and in turn attempt to influence the urban agenda of the neoliberal city. Inquiring how competing visions of nature act as obstacles in this negotiation process, our analysis of the peri-urban Baix Llobregat Agricultural Park in Barcelona reveals that the imposition of official visions about how needs for food and agriculture should be fulfilled, which landscapes are esthetically acceptable, what nature is, and how land should be controlled and developed indicate why apparently “marginal” and informal urban agriculture in the periphery has come to be subordinated to the planning of the neoliberal city and of a metropolitan sustainability fix – a partial sustainability fix that is however progressively being questioned and renegotiated.  相似文献   

10.
Accurate modeling of urban climate is essential to predict potential environmental risks in cities. Urban datasets, such as urban land use and urban canopy parameters (UCPs), are key input data for urban climate models and largely affect their performance. However, access to reliable urban datasets is a challenge, especially in fast urbanizing countries. In this study, we developed a high-resolution national urban dataset in China (NUDC) for the WRF/urban modeling system and evaluated its effect on urban climate modeling. Specifically, an optimization method based on building morphology was proposed to classify urban land use types. The key UCPs, including building height and width, street width, surface imperviousness, and anthropogenic heat flux, were calculated for both single-layer Urban Canopy Model (UCM) and multiple-layer Building Energy Parameterization (BEP). The results show that the derived morphological-based urban land use classification could better reflect the urban characteristics, compared to the socioeconomic-function-based classification. The UCPs varied largely in spatial within and across the cities. The integration of the developed urban land use and UCPs datasets significantly improved the representation of urban canopy characteristics, contributing to a more accurate modeling of near-surface air temperature, humidity, and wind in urban areas. The UCM performed better in the modeling of air temperature and humidity, while the BEP performed better in the modeling of wind speed. The newly developed NUDC can advance the study of urban climate and improve the prediction of potential urban environmental risks in China.  相似文献   

11.
亓月 《山东地质》2012,(9):63-65
土地是城市发展的首要基础,城市的经济、社会、环境等各个系统的运行都以土地为载体。该文通过分析近5年来莱芜市区土地利用数据动态变化,对该区域土地利用结构和趋势进行了初步探讨,并对今后该区域土地利用方向提出了相应对策。  相似文献   

12.
戴福初  李军  张晓晖 《地球科学》2000,25(2):209-214
城市地质环境评价是城市规划和场地选址的基础 .以兰州市为例 ,以地理信息系统软件ARC/INFO为开发平台 ,建立了城市地质环境基础数据库 ,将城市用地类型分为高层建筑用地、多层建筑用地、低层建筑用地、垃圾填埋用地及自然保护用地 ,系统分析了各类用地与地质环境协调性评价的指标体系 ,采用层次分析法建立了评价模型 ,对不同的用地类型进行了评价 .结果表明GIS与评价模型的结合可以快捷、准确地进行城市建设用地与地质环境的协调性评价  相似文献   

13.
Groundwater vulnerability assessment of urban areas is a challenging task in the fast trend of urbanization around the globe. This study introduces a new approach for modifying well-known parameters of common vulnerability indexes to adjust them for urban areas. The approach is independent of a specific weighting system. The aquifer of Mashhad city, contaminated by domestic wastewater, is selected as a case in this study. In order to evaluate the aquifer vulnerability due to anthropogenic activities, at first, parameters of depth to groundwater, recharge, land use, and soil are modified based on their basic concepts and their influences on contamination attenuation. Then, the modified parameters are used simultaneously in several index methods to investigate the capability of the modified parameters to increase correlation coefficient of all employed index methods with the measured nitrate concentration. Accuracy of the modified methods is evaluated by Spearman nonparametric correlation. It is shown that considering the wastewater discharge into recharge parameter leads to an increase of 20% in correlation coefficient. Also, level difference technique shows that more than 70% of the vulnerable areas are predicted correctly in all utilized methods. The accurate prediction in all employed methods indicates that these modifications are independent of the type of index method. Moreover, sensitivity analysis reveals that the recharge and the land use are both the most significant parameters for evaluating the vulnerability.  相似文献   

14.
Ajman is a rapidly urbanizing emirate with land development succeeding at a fast pace. This study aims to monitor land use/land cover changes and assesses the impact of these changes on groundwater quality and quantity of the shallow aquifer using multitemporal remote sensing data and geographic information system (GIS). To monitor the land use/land cover changes, the Spectral Angle Mapper (SAM) and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) algorithms were utilized. The obtained maps were correlated against a set of total dissolved solid (TDS); Mg, Cl, and NO3 groundwater quality index; and depth to the groundwater table maps constructed from groundwater data. The spatial analysis revealed a sharp depletion in groundwater quality and quantity related to the increase in the land use/land cover classes. The mean total TDS is from 21,971 to 26,450 mg/L and depth to groundwater level from ?12.33 to ?17.2 m over a period of 15 years. Maps of normalized difference and groundwater quality sustainability showed that the eastern side of the study area has a high value of groundwater quality sustainability and normalized difference, while the western side of the study area has a minimal value of groundwater quality sustainability and normalized difference. This study is of great assistance for decision makers and land developers to relate to municipal land allotment in rapidly developing regions such as Ajman.  相似文献   

15.
In 1914, Lagos was chosen as the capital of Nigeria and from then onward, the demographic and physical expansion of the city has been so dramatic that by 1960, it has grown into a metropolis covering about 70 sq. km with well over 1 million inhabitants. The inhospitable physical environment, and the locational decision by the British colonial authorities to develop Lagos as Nigeria's capital are largely accountable for the rate and nature of land use development. The predominance of swamps imposes large scale land reclamations as a precondition for land use development, while the administrative, industrial, commercial and transport functions devolving on Lagos as the federal capital and primate city attract massive in-migration at a much faster rate than the pace of providing urban social services. The lagos Executive Development Board (LEDB) dominated land use development for many years. In spite of numerous constrainst, the Board succeeded in carrying out extensive swamp reclamations, residential and industrial estate development. The decision to transfer the capital to Abuja will certainly reflect on future land use development in Lagos. Above all, it is a clear evidence that urban planning alone has failed to tackle the problems meaningfully.With only 10% of the total urban land as against 60% for residential purposes, industrial activity in Metropolitan Lagos is of great social and economic significance both in terms of industrial jobs directly related to manufacturing and indirectly in terms of commercial, transport, banking and insurance opportunities created. The geometry of land use in Metropolitan Lagos is gradually changing under the influence of urban renewal and highway development radiating from the inner-city to the hinterland which have attracted new and centre-city industrial and residential estates are springing up.  相似文献   

16.
This study assesses the changes in surface area of Manzala Lake, the largest coastal lake in Egypt, with respect to changes in land use and land cover based on a multi-temporal classification process. A regression model is provided to predict the temporal changes in the different detected classes and to assess the sustainability of the lake waterbody. Remote sensing is an effective method for detecting the impact of anthropogenic activities on the surface area of a lagoon such as Manzala Lake. The techniques used in this study include unsupervised classification, Mahalanobis distance supervised classification, minimum distance supervised classification, maximum likelihood supervised classification, and normalized difference water index. Data extracted from satellite images are used to predict the future temporal change in each class, using a statistical regression model and considering calibration, validation, and prediction phases. It was found that the maximum likelihood classification technique has the highest overall accuracy of 93.33%. This technique is selected to observe the changes in the surface area of the lake for the period from 1984 to 2015. Study results show that the waterbody surface area of the lake declined by 46% and the area of floating vegetation, islands, and land agriculture increased by 153.52, 42.86, and 42.35% respectively during the study period. Linear regression model prediction indicates that the waterbody surface area of the lake will decrease by 25.24% during the period from 2015 to 2030, which reflects the negative impact of human activities on lake sustainability represented by a severe reduction of the waterbody area.  相似文献   

17.
The period stemming from the late 1990s has witnessed the emergence of large scale city centre retail developments across England. Such projects have received government support because of their association with urban sustainability, in addition to the potential to catalyse broader regeneration and gentrification processes. Whereas some early projects proceeded relatively quickly, other schemes were delayed by complex land assembly requirements. Investigating beyond the formal compulsory purchase process, this paper draws on small businesses’ experiences of the land assembly process to provide a critical perspective on contemporary urban developments. It does so by drawing on interview material collected from small businesses affected by a proposed Retail Core Expansion within the city of Wolverhampton. By analysing attitudes towards communication practices, compensation discussions and relocation assistance, the picture is painted of an exclusionary development model and of limited support for existing land interests. Although active business responses are recognised, anxiety was prevalent because of the overwhelming dominance of future-orientated horizons and narratives.  相似文献   

18.
研究海淀区产业结构变化对土地资源利用的影响   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  
海淀区作为北京市城市边缘区的最重要区域之一，其土地资源利用随着产业结构的变化而发生着剧烈的变化。本文研究了产业结构变化对城市边缘区土地资源利用影响的规律及原因，并以海淀区为例详细分折了其产业结构变化及对土地赛场利用的影响，结合产业结构的变化趋势分折预测了海淀区将来土地资源利用的变化。  相似文献   

19.
Urban impervious surfaces are considered as key indicator of urbanization intensity and environmental quality. Due to their significant impact on surface runoff, flood frequency, and water quality, impervious surfaces have been identified as an important indicator for examining the hydrological impact of urbanization. The amount and distribution of impervious surfaces have been estimated using remote sensing and geographic information system (GIS) techniques. Little research, however, has been conducted to predict future impervious surface distributions. To address this problem, we developed an integrated residential/commercial growth and impervious surface distribution model to predict urban impervious surface distribution. Taking Milwaukee River Basin, Wisconsin as a case study, we simulated future residential and commercial developments using a CA model. Further, we developed a linear regression model to predict impervious surface distributions in residential and commercial land uses. Analysis of results suggests that the proposed model performs significantly better than the traditional approaches.  相似文献   

20.
Banerjee  Iman  Saha  Apala 《GeoJournal》2022,87(4):567-581

Urban regeneration involves the notion of reconstruction of places, where regeneration initiatives are undertaken to ameliorate the quality of physical and social spaces, accrue economic profitability of space, and finally encourage environmental sustainability. Railway stations all around the world have a very important role to play in contemporary urban regeneration strategies as places of both social and material interest. With the progress of the twentieth century several issues like rapidly growing population, seemingly relentless urbanisation, an alarming rate of vehicle emission, and consequent pollution emphasised railway stations as critical places with great potentials of infrastructure development for the optimised functioning of urban centres. Thus the huge value of railway stations and their adjacent land has been acknowledged since the last quarter of the previous century. This paper aims to analyse the place value of railway stations and their immediate neighbourhoods within the urban fabric of a city using a relevant theoretical concept i.e. the ‘Node-Place Model’. Simultaneously it also draws attention to the notion of (re)development of functional spaces in and around the railway stations as a dimension of contemporary urban regeneration strategies, with the help of some global examples. This paper thereby reveals that in the urban centres throughout the entire world the railway stations are progressively attaining the focal position within integrated transport and land use planning strategies, either under the larger concept of 'Transit-Oriented Development' (TOD) or more simply, with the label of (re)development programme. This paper will significantly contribute to the ability of spatial policymakers to direct the future of urban growth towards public transit stations so as to achieve sustainable urban development.

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