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1.
A sediment core from Chuna Lake (Kola Peninsula, northwest Russia) was studied for pollen, diatoms and sediment chemistry in order to infer post‐glacial environmental changes and to investigate responses of the lake ecosystem to these changes. The past pH and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) of the lake were inferred using diatom‐based transfer functions. Between 9000 and 4200 cal. yr BP, slow natural acidification and major changes in the diatom flora occurred in Chuna Lake. These correlated with changes in regional pollen, the arrival of trees in the catchment, changes in erosion, sediment organic content and DOC. During the past 4200 yr diatom‐based proxies showed no clear response to changes in vegetation and erosion, as autochthonous ecological processes became more important than external climate influences during the late Holocene. The pollen stratigraphy reflects the major climate patterns of the central Kola Peninsula during the Holocene, i.e. a climate optimum between 9000 and 5400/5000 cal. yr BP when climate was warm and dry, and gradual climate cooling and an increase in moisture during the past 5400/5000 yr. This agrees with the occurrence of the north–south humidity gradient in Fennoscandia during the Holocene. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

2.
The Antarctic Peninsula is one of the most sensitive regions of Antarctica to climate change. Here, ecological and cryospheric systems respond rapidly to climate fluctuations. A 4.4 m thick laminated diatom ooze deposited during the last deglaciation is examined from a marine sediment core (ODP Site 1098) recovered from Basin I, Palmer Deep, western Antarctic Peninsula. This deglacial laminated interval was deposited directly over a glaciomarine diamict, hence during a globally recognised period of rapid climate change. The ultra‐high‐resolution deglacial record is analysed using SEM backscattered electron imagery and secondary electron imagery. Laminated to thinly bedded orange‐brown diatom ooze (near monogeneric Hyalochaete Chaetoceros spp. resting spores) alternates with blue‐grey terrigenous sediments (open water diatom species). These discrete laminae are interpreted as austral spring and summer signals respectively, with negligible winter deposition. Sub‐seasonal sub‐laminae are observed repeatedly through the summer laminae, suggesting variations in shelf waters throughout the summer. Tidal cycles, high storm intensities and/or intrusion of Circumpolar Deep Water onto the continental shelf introduced conditions which enhanced specific species productivity through the season. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

3.
Climate impacts on coastal and estuarine systems take many forms and are dependent on the local conditions, including those set by humans. We use a biocomplexity framework to provide a perspective of the consequences of climate change for coastal wetland ecogeomorphology. We concentrate on three dimensions of climate change affects on ecogeomorphology: sea level rise, changes in storm frequency and intensity, and changes in freshwater, sediment, and nutrient inputs. While sea level rise, storms, sedimentation, and changing freshwater input can directly impact coastal and estuarine wetlands, biological processes can modify these physical impacts. Geomorphological changes to coastal and estuarine ecosystems can induce complex outcomes for the biota that are not themselves intuitively obvious because they are mediated by networks of biological interactions. Human impacts on wetlands occur at all scales. At the global scale, humans are altering climate at rapid rates compared to the historical and recent geological record. Climate change can disrupt ecological systems if it occurs at characteristic time scales shorter than ecological system response and causes alterations in ecological function that foster changes in structure or alter functional interactions. Many coastal wetlands can adjust to predicted climate change, but human impacts, in combination with climate change, will significantly affect coastal wetland ecosystems. Management for climate change must strike a balance between that which allows pulsing of materials and energy to the ecosystems and promotes ecosystem goods and services, while protecting human structures and activities. Science-based management depends on a multi-scale understanding of these biocomplex wetland systems. Causation is often associated with multiple factors, considerable variability, feedbacks, and interferences. The impacts of climate change can be detected through monitoring and assessment of historical or geological records. Attribution can be inferred through these in conjunction with experimentation and modeling. A significant challenge to allow wise management of coastal wetlands is to develop observing systems that act at appropriate scales to detect global climate change and its effects in the context of the various local and smaller scale effects.  相似文献   

4.
High‐resolution multi‐proxy analyses of a sediment core section from Lake Jeserzersee (Saissersee) in the piedmont lobe of the Würmian Drau glacier (Carinthia, Austria) reveal pronounced climatic oscillations during the early late glacial (ca. 18.5–16.0k cal a BP). Diatom‐inferred epilimnetic summer water temperatures show a close correspondence with temperature reconstructions from the adjacent Lake Längsee record and, on a hemispheric scale, with fluctuations of ice‐rafted debris in the North Atlantic. This suggests that North Atlantic climate triggered summer climate variability in the Alps during the early late glacial. The expansion of pine (mainly dwarf pine) between ca. 18.5 and 18.1k cal a BP indicates warming during the so‐called ‘Längsee oscillation’. The subsequent stepwise climate deterioration between ca. 18.1 and 17.6k cal a BP culminated in a tripartite cold period between ca. 17.6 and 16.9k cal a BP with diatom‐inferred summer water temperatures 8.5–10 °C below modern values and a shift from wet to dry conditions. This period probably coincides with a major Alpine glacier advance termed the Gschnitz stadial. A warmer interval between ca. 16.9 and 16.4k cal a BP separates this cold phase from a second, shorter and less pronounced cold phase between ca. 16.4 and 16.0k cal a BP, which is thought to correlate with the Clavadel/Senders glacier advance in the Alps. The following temperature increase, coupled with wet (probably snow‐rich) conditions, caused the expansion of birch during the transition period to the late glacial interstadial. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

5.
Holocene palaeolimnological conditions were reconstructed by analysing fossil diatom assemblages within a lacustrine sediment core from Lake Sokoch, southern Kamchatka (Russia). Sediments of this proglacial lake cover the past 9400 years and hence represent almost the whole Holocene history. The biosiliceous muddy sample material was analysed for several geochemical and biological parameters, such as the total organic carbon and biogenic silica content, and the diatom community (quantitative and qualitative changes). Based on changes in the relative abundances of the most frequent species Aulacoseira subarctica, Staurosira martyi and Stephanodiscus alpinus and a depth‐constrained cluster analyses (CONISS), five diatom assemblage zones could be identified. The oldest stage recovered lies between 9400 and 9000 cal. a BP and reflects the initial lake stage after the retreat of local glaciers, with a high detrital sediment supply, shallow‐water conditions and a high diatom diversity. The next zone (9000–6200 cal. a BP) shows a more mature lake system with accumulating biogenic remains and higher water levels during climate amelioration. This is followed by the most obvious change in the diatom assemblage, delineated by an occurrence of S. alpinus, between 6200 and 2700 cal. a BP. Wet conditions in spring probably led to an enhanced fluvial runoff and eutrophic to hypertrophic conditions. The end of this period might reflect climate deterioration related to the Neoglacial epoch of the Holocene. Between 2700 and 1600 cal. a BP the sediments of Lake Sokoch reveal oligotrophic water conditions in a windy high‐energy environment. The youngest interval, between 1600 cal. a BP and the Present, indicates shallow‐water conditions and a very short growing season, which might reflect the Little Ice Age. The results may offer a baseline for the interpretation of Holocene palaeoenvironmental changes in Kamchatka and their relation to regional climate change from a palaeoecological perspective.  相似文献   

6.
Jiang, S., Liu, X., Sun, J., Yuan, L., Sun, L. & Wang, Y. 2011: A multi‐proxy sediment record of late Holocene and recent climate change from a lake near Ny‐Ålesund, Svalbard. Boreas, Vol. 40, pp. 468–480. 10.1111/j.1502‐3885.2010.00198.x. ISSN 0300‐9483 The Arctic constitutes a unique and important environment with a significant role in the dynamics and evolution of the earth system. Arctic lake sediments, which accumulate slowly over time, contain abundant information about the biological communities that lived within the water body, as well as in the surrounding catchment. In this study, we collected a sediment core from Ny‐Ålesund, Svalbard, performed multi‐proxy analyses on sediment pigments, mineral magnetic susceptibility, various sediment quality (i. e. organic matter content, CaCO3 content, carbon and nitrogen isotope), and diatom composition, and reconstructed the history of ecosystem responses to environmental variations, especially regarding aquatic productivity and lake catchment surface processes. Ny‐Ålesund has undergone distinct ecological and climatic changes. During the Little Ice Age, the cold climate was unfavourable for the growth of lake algae, and therefore the lake primary productivity declined. After about AD 1890 and during the 20th century, the warming climate and reduced ice cover led to rapid lithological change and growth of lake algae, enhanced lake primary productivity, and increased input of nutrients derived from increased chemical weathering into the lake. The lake ecosystem on Ny‐Ålesund has had rapid responses to climatic and environmental changes in the Arctic.  相似文献   

7.
Palaeolimnological reconstruction of the aquatic environment in Lake Komo?any, based on sedimentology, geochemistry, and diatom and macrofossil analyses in the littoral part of the basin, reflects the mid‐Holocene history of the profile from its origin c. 9100 cal. a BP to its final transformation into an alder carr c. 4100 cal. a BP. The existence of the littoral zone can be best explained by increased precipitation during the studied interval. A stable diatom community, diatom‐inferred total phosphorus (50–80 μg L?1) and pH (~7.6), along with stable concentrations of elements associated with changes in its watershed indicate a long‐lasting, balanced aquatic environment with no major shifts attributable to external factors, including climate change. From c. 4700 cal. BP, there started a transition to terrestrial conditions, caused by either natural infilling processes or decreased precipitation. Alternation of remarkable dry/wet phases was not detected, in contrast to numerous analogous central European and supraregional records. Potential human impact was revealed through increases of Corylus and Populus pollen in the Neolithic. These anthropogenic changes in the lake surroundings had no detectable influence on the lacustrine environment. The gathered data suggest undramatic, balanced mid‐Holocene environmental and climatic settings for this central European locality, in direct contrast to numerous analogous studies from the region emphasizing fluctuations and shifts found in the sediment record.  相似文献   

8.
Reconstruction of modern climate and environmental changes in east Asia using inland natural climate archives can provide valuable insights on decadal–multidecadal climate and environmental patterns that are probably related to both natural and anthropogenic forcing. Here we investigated an 89‐cm‐long sediment core (TH1) from Tian Lake, southeastern China, for sedimentological, physical and geochemical parameters in order to understand climate and environmental changes for the latest two centuries. 137Cs‐ and 210Pb‐based age models show that the fine sand–coarse silt‐dominated core contains ~170 years (c. AD 1842–2011) of continuous sedimentation. Sediments with fine sands, low MS values, high water content, high TOC content and a high C:N ratio from c. AD 1842 to 1897 suggest intense hydrological conditions and strong runoff in the catchment, probably because of a humid climate. From AD 1897 to 1990, sediments with very fine sand and coarse silt, high MS values, low water content and unchanged TOC and C:N ratios indicate normal hydrological conditions and in‐lake algae‐derived organic matter. During this interval, the chemical weathering indicators show stronger weathering conditions compared with sediments deposited during AD 1842–1897, supporting the dominance of weathered surface soil input in the earlier interval and physical erosion dominance in the later period, respectively. Since AD 1990, the continuous decrease of geochemical proxies suggests human‐interacted Earth surface processes in the catchment of Tian Lake. A PCA revealed four dominant geochemical controlling factors – detrital input, trophic status, grain size and early diagenesis –, accounting for 26, 20, 18 and 16% of total variance, respectively. This study for the first time provides lacustrine geochemical evidence for the most recent two centuries of climate and environmental changes in coastal southeastern China, a region that is currently undergoing an inversion of critical zone, i.e. an overturning of its soil profile, owing to swift modernization.  相似文献   

9.
A pollen‐based study from Tiny Lake in the Seymour‐Belize Inlet Complex of central coastal British Columbia, Canada, permits an evaluation of the dynamic response of coastal temperate rainforests to postglacial climate change. Open Pinus parklands grew at the site during the early Lateglacial when the climate was cool and dry, but more humid conditions in the later phases of the Lateglacial permitted mesophytic conifers to colonise the region. Early Holocene conditions were warmer than present and a successional mosaic of Tsuga heterophylla and Alnus occurred at Tiny Lake. Climate cooling and moistening at 8740 ± 70 14C a BP initiated the development of closed, late successional T. heterophylla–Cupressaceae forests, which achieved modern character after 6860 ± 50 14C a BP, when a temperate and very wet climate became established. The onset of early Holocene climate cooling and moistening at Tiny Lake may have preceded change at more southern locations, including within the Seymour‐Belize Inlet Complex, on a meso‐ to synoptic scale. This would suggest that an early Holocene intensification of the Aleutian Low pressure system was an important influence on forest dynamics in the Seymour‐Belize Inlet Complex and that the study region was located near the southern extent of immediate influence of this semi‐permanent air mass. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

10.
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11.
The interactions between climatic and volcanic forcing on diatom communities contained in a 50,000-year sedimentary sequence from Lake Massoko, Tanzania, were examined. At the century scale, 19 discrete tephra inputs to the lake isolated the sedimentary nutrient supply and shifted the diatom communities to those tolerant of low phosphorus levels, whereas at the millennial scale, diatom-inferred shifts in precipitation–evaporation based on conductivity optima and diatom life-form ratios were broadly similar to lake-level reconstructions from Lake Rukwa, Lake Malawi, and others in the region. Some fluctuations of Lake Massoko are consistent with the precession-driven changes in insolation, but the major climate shifts do not relate directly to orbital forcing of summer insolation south of the equator and show more consistency with records from the equatorial and northern tropics that receive rainfall from the passing of the intertropical convergence zone. Sea surface temperatures are strongly correlated to multimillennial-scale climate patterns over this region of Africa.  相似文献   

12.
To provide insights into the long‐term evolution of aquatic ecosystems without human interference, we here evaluate a decadal‐ to centennial‐scale‐resolution diatom record spanning about 12 ka of the Holsteinian interglacial (Marine Isotope Stage 11c). Using a partially varved sediment core from the Dethlingen palaeolake (northern Germany), which has previously been studied for palynological and microfacies signals, we document the co‐evolution of the aquatic and surrounding terrestrial environment. The diatom record is dominated by the genera Stephanodiscus, Aulacoseira, Ulnaria and Fragilaria. Based on the diatom assemblages and physical sediment properties, the evolution of the Dethlingen palaeolake can be subdivided into three major phases. During the oldest phase (lasting ～1900 varve years), the lake was ～10–15 m deep and characterized by anoxic bottom‐water conditions and a high nutrient content. The following ～5600 years exhibited water depths >20 m, maximum diatom and Pediastrum productivity, and a peak in allochtonous nutrient input. During this phase, water‐column mixing became more vigorous, resulting in a breakdown of anoxia. The youngest lake phase (～4000–5000 years) was characterized by decreasing water depth, turbulent water conditions and decreased nutrient loading. Based on our palaeolimnological data, we conclude that the evolution of the Dethlingen palaeolake during the Holsteinian interglacial responded closely to (i) changes within the catchment area (as documented by vegetation and sedimentation) related to the transition from closed forests growing on nutrient‐rich soils (mesocratic forest phase) to open forests developing on poor soils (oligocratic forest phase), and (ii) short‐term climate variability as reflected in centennial‐scale climate perturbations.  相似文献   

13.
罗海  李杰  邹亚菲  徐会明 《地学前缘》2020,27(6):289-299
湖泊是全球生态系统的重要组成部分。尽管湖泊初级生产力的生物多样性在湖泊生态系统中发挥着非常重要的作用,但对其如何在千年时间尺度上对气候变化做出响应却知之甚少,而千年时间尺度与预测未来变化最为相关。本文以云南云龙天池湖泊为研究对象,以湖泊重要的初级生产力硅藻为研究手段,分析了末次冰消期期间硅藻生物多样性对千年尺度上气候变化的响应。云龙天池硅藻生物多样性表现为暖期高、冷期低。随着全球温度的快速变化,硅藻生物多样性亦对应的快速响应:在转暖时(Bolling/Allerod暖期)快速增加,在转冷时(Herinrich 1和Younger Dryas)快速降低。这些变化主要与温度变化驱动的湖泊环境条件的变化(比如冰封期长短、边岸带水生植被的变化等)有关。研究结果还表明,在末次冰消期期间,云龙天池湖泊硅藻生物多样性与千年尺度的气候变化同步,而且在长时间尺度上,气候变暖对高山湖泊生物多样性可能是有利的。  相似文献   

14.
Research on abrupt paleoclimatic and paleoenvironmental change provides a scientific basis for evaluating future climate. Because of spatial variability in monsoonal rainfall, our knowledge about climate change during the mid-to lateHolocene in southern China is still limited. We present a multi-proxy record of paleoclimatic change in a crater lake, Lake Shuangchi. Based on the age-depth model from 210 Pb, 137 Cs and AMS14 C data, high-resolution mid-to late-Holocene climatic and environmental records were reconstructed using multiple indices(TOC, TN, C/N, δ13 C and grain size). Shuangchi underwent a marked change from a peat bog to a lake around 1.4 kaBP. The C3 plants likely dominated during 7.0–5.9 ka and 2.5–1.4 kaBP, while C4 plants dominated between 5.9–3.2 and 3.0–2.5 kaBP. Algae were dominant sources of organic matter in the lake sediments after 1.4 kaBP. Several intervals with high concentrations of coarser grain sizes might be due to flood events. These results reveal that several abrupt paleoclimatic events occurred around 6.6 ka, 6.1 ka, 5.9 ka, 3.0 ka, 2.5 ka and 1.4 kaBP. The paleoclimatic change recorded in the lake may be related to the migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone(ITCZ) and El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation(ENSO) activity.  相似文献   

15.
A wide range of palaeoenvironmental evidence from the Holocene has suggested periodicities in the Earth's climate of 10s to 1000s of years. Identifying these millennial‐, century‐ and decadal periodicities, and their impacts, is critical in developing a fuller understanding of natural climate variability. Any solar‐induced climatic change needs to be distinguished from other causes of natural climate variability and from short‐term catastrophic events induced either by external or internal processes. Such events might themselves generate a periodicity, or in combination with other forcing factors they may contribute towards a periodicity (and so spuriously imply a universal and continuing periodicity in the climate record), or they may resonate with a solar‐induced periodicity. Here, evidence from peat records for periodicity in climate change over the mid to late Holocene is reviewed and this is followed by a test of the replicability of claimed periodicities using blanket peat data covering the past 2000 yr from four sites in the British Isles. Results suggest that the mires studied do go through phases of being responsive to periodic forcing factors, with ca. 200, ca. 80 and 60–50 yr wavelengths reflected in some data sets. However, the patterns shown are not consistent. This could be the result of local conditions at individual mires (human impact, sensitivity and vegetation succession) or of changes in the strength or nature of global forcing factors. Assessing a solar–mire link remains difficult because the century‐scale variations of the Sun show different intervals between solar minima, the durations of which are themselves unequal, and because the proxy‐climate data‐sets from peat profiles may themselves not be dated with sufficient precision and/or accuracy. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

16.
Reconstructions of past climatic changes on the northeastern Tibetan Plateau(NETP) can provide insights into the Asian summer monsoon(ASM) variability. However, the regional climate changes on both orbital and suborbital time scales since the late Glacial remain controversial. Here we present the results of high-resolution geochemical and grain-size analyses of a sediment core from Genggahai Lake, a small, shallow lake in this area. Changes of the accumulation rate of the core sediments show a similar trend with variations of the coarse fraction. Accordingly, the chronological framework is constructed using a grain-size age model. In addition, the histories of chemical weathering and aeolian activity since the late Glacial are reconstructed based on the Al/Ti ratios and coarse fractions, respectively. The results suggest that an enhanced chemical weathering and a weakened aeolian activity occurred on the NETP under a warmer, wetter climate during the early to mid-Holocene(11.3–6.3 ka cal BP), compared with the late Glacial(17.1–11.3 ka cal BP) and the late Holocene(6.3 ka cal BP to present), which responded mainly to the strengthened ASM on orbital time scale. In addition, the synchronous occurrences of weakened chemical weathering, low lake level and intense aeolian activity on suborbital time scale reflect several episodes of weakened ASM. Furthermore, these episodes largely coincide with the centennial-to millennial-scale cold events in the North Atlantic, which demonstrates the close connection between the ASM and the cooling at high latitudes.  相似文献   

17.
Sediment cores from Lake Pupuke in Auckland City, New Zealand, contain a high‐resolution millennial to centennial‐scale record of changing climate and catchment hydrology spanning the past ca. 10 000 years. Here, we focus on the period between 9500 ± 25 and 7000 ± 155 cal. yr BP during which grain size, diatom palaeoecology, biogenic silica concentrations, sediment elemental and carbon isotope geochemistry reflect changes in sediment sources and lake conditions, with a significant event commencing at ca. 8240 cal. yr BP, commensurate with a lowering of lake level, faster erosion rates and increased sediment influx with a duration of ca. 360 yrs. However, the changes in the lake are not reflected in the terrestrial vegetation, where the pollen record indicates that podocarp forest dominated the Auckland region, with apparent environmental stability during this part of the early Holocene. The synchronous change in most of the proxies between ca. 8240 and 7880 cal. yr BP at Lake Pupuke indicates the presence of a sustained episode of relatively low lake level and concomitant increased rate of erosion in the early Holocene that appears to be at least partly coeval with the 8200 cal. yr BP meltwater event proposed for the North Atlantic region. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

18.
A palaeolimnological study of the annually laminated sediment sequence of Lake Xiaolongwan, a small maar lake in northeastern China, revealed distinct diatom responses to Lateglacial and early Holocene climate change between c. 19 700 and c. 10 700 a BP. In addition to analyses of diatom assemblage composition and of the biovolume accumulation rate of planktonic diatoms, geochemical (total nitrogen, total organic carbon) and physical (varve type and thickness) indicators were used to assess past environmental change. The diatom assemblages reveal a complex interplay between direct climate effects on the seasonal lake conditions (timing of ice cover break‐up, water column mixing and thermal stratification), catchment‐mediated effects on the concentrations of nutrients and dissolved organic carbon and, possibly, biotic interactions between the different algal groups present in the phytoplankton of Lake Xiaolongwan (diatoms, Chrysophyceae and Dinophyceae). The most remarkable changes in the aquatic system were: (i) a sharp increase in Asterionella formosa and the collapse of Handmannia balatonis at c. 14 780 a BP, corresponding with the onset of the Bølling – Allerød interstadial; (ii) a sharp rise in Stephanodiscus minutulus at c. 12 840 a BP, marking the start of the Younger Dryas event and (iii) when the lake phytoplankton became dominated by Dinophyceae instead of diatoms at c. 11 170 a BP, after the Pre‐Boreal oscillation. Two diatom assemblage zones characterize the Younger Dryas at Lake Xiaolongwan, suggesting a bipartite division of this stadial event as in several records from eastern Asia and Europe. The quasi‐synchronicity of these events with the oscillations described in the North Atlantic realm demonstrates that during the Lateglacial, North Atlantic dynamics at centennial and millennial time scales had a strong control upon the climate in northeastern China.  相似文献   

19.
The late Pleistocene–Holocene ecological and limnological history of Lake Fúquene (2580 m a.s.l.), in the Colombian Andes, is reconstructed on the basis of diatom, pollen and sediment analyses of the upper 7 m of the core Fúquene‐7. Time control is provided by 11 accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) 14C dates ranging from 19 670 ± 240 to 6040 ± 60 yr BP. In this paper we present the evolution of the lake and its surroundings. Glacial times were cold and dry, lake‐levels were low and the area was surrounded by paramo and subparamo vegetation. Late‐glacial conditions were warm and humid. The El Abra Stadial, a Younger Dryas equivalent, is reflected by a gap in the sedimentary record, a consequence of the cessation of deposition owing to a drop in lake‐level. The early Holocene was warm and humid; at this time the lake reached its maximum extension and was surrounded by Andean forest. The onset of the drier climate prevailing today took place in the middle Holocene, a process that is reflected earlier in the diatom and sediment records than in the pollen records. In the late Holocene human activity reduced the forest and transformed the landscape. Climate patterns from the Late‐glacial and throughout the Holocene, as represented in our record, are similar to other records from Colombia and northern South America (the Caribbean, Venezuela and Panama) and suggest that the changes in lake‐level were the result of precipitation variations driven by latitudinal shifts of the Intertropical Convergence Zone. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

20.
Annually resolved June–July–August (JJA) temperatures from ca. 570 BC to AD 120 (±100 a; approximately 690 varve years) were quantified from biogenic silica and chironomids (Type II regression; Standard Major Axis calibration‐in‐time) preserved in the varved sediments of Lake Silvaplana, Switzerland. Using 30 a (climatology) moving averages and detrended standard deviations (mean–variability change, MVC), moving linear trends, change points and wavelets, reconstructed temperatures were partitioned into a warmer (+0.3°C; ca. 570–351 BC), cooler (?0.2°C; ca. 350–16 BC) and moderate period (+0.1°C; ca. 15 BC to AD 120) relative to the reconstruction average (10.9°C; reference AD 1950–2000 = 9.8°C). Warm and variable JJA temperatures at the Late Iron Age–Roman Period transition (approximately 50 BC to AD 100 in this region) and a cold anomaly around 470 BC (Early–Late Iron Age) were inferred. Inter‐annual and decadal temperature variability was greater from ca. 570 BC to AD 120 than the last millennium, whereas multi‐decadal and lower‐frequency temperature variability were comparable, as evident in wavelet plots. Using MVC plots of reconstructed JJA temperatures from ca. 570 BC to AD 120, we verified current trends and European climate model outputs for the 21st century, which suggest increased inter‐annual summer temperature variability and extremes in a generally warmer climate (heteroscedasticity; hotspot of variability). We compared these results to MVC plots of instrumental and reconstructed temperatures (from the same sediment core and proxies but a different study) from AD 1177 to AD 2000. Our reconstructed JJA temperatures from ca. 570 BC to AD 120 showed that inter‐annual JJA temperature variability increased rapidly above a threshold of ～10°C mean JJA temperature. This increase accelerated with continued warming up to >11.5°C. We suggest that the Roman Period serves with respect to inter‐annual variability as an analogue for warmer 21st‐century JJA temperatures in the Alps. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

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