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1.
《International Geology Review》2012,54(5):406-418
Extreme events are significant determinants of the character and evolution of many natural and human systems. When extreme events occur at the interface between natural and human systems, they are often called “disasters.” Here, we use a systemic, contextual view of disasters to construct a framework for organizing research and policy. Within this framework, reduction of vulnerability is the organizing principle, and decision processes (which lead to reduced vulnerability) are the fundamental unit of analysis and action. Scientific research is connected to decision processes through knowledge—integrating activities such as prediction, observation, and heuristics. But the value of research depends on its capacity to enhance decision-making capabilities. Our goal is to define an approach by which policy—relevant research questions can be more readily recognized. and societally valuable (i.e., vulnerabilityreducing) knowledge can be more effectively created and used. 相似文献
2.
21世纪初极端天气气候事件研究进展 总被引：22，自引：0，他引：22
由于极端天气气候事件的严重影响，越来越多的研究开始关注其变化情况。从观测分析到模拟研究，几乎都发现极端气温、降水事件发生了显著变化，而且在全球变暖的大背景下，未来有些极端事件可能会发生频数更高或强度更强。当然，研究结论也存在一定程度的不确定性，从模式模拟来看，目前模拟结果仍存在不确定性，不同模式的结果间常常存在较大的差异；而从观测分析来看，研究主要局限于20世纪后半叶，如果对更长时间作分析，结论或许会有所不同。文章从最基本的极端天气气候事件的定义出发，结合观测事实和模拟研究两个主要方面来介绍近几年来极端事件研究取得的主要进展，最后简单地总结了这些进展，并提出了进一步研究的思路。
相似文献
3.
Sustainable indigenous futures in remote Indigenous areas: relationships, processes and failed state approaches 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
Richard Howitt 《GeoJournal》2012,77(6):817-828
In many Indigenous territories, continuing processes of primitive accumulation driven by governments?? claims to resources and territory simultaneously deny Indigenous rights and insist on market forces as the foundation for economic and social futures in Indigenous domains. Drawing on research in North Australia, this paper identifies the erasure of Indigenous governance, the development of wickedly complex administrative systems, continuing structural and procedural racism and state hostility to Indigenous rights as constructing Indigenous vulnerability to poverty, addiction and underdevelopment. Shaping sustainable Indigenous futures in remote areas that are characterised by long-term development failure requires rethinking of remote local and regional economic relationships. Recognising remote regional economies as hybrid economies that rely on environmental, social and cultural wealth is an important first step in reorienting policy settings. It is also crucial that we acknowledge sustainable Indigenous futures cannot arise from policy interventions that rely on creating wealth for state and corporate appropriation and assume enough of this wealth can be redistributed to local Indigenous communities to constitute ??development??. Politically constructed crisis interventions, such as Australia??s recent actions in remote Northern Territory communities, represent a failure of state relationships rather than an appropriate and sustainable response to the challenge of Indigenous vulnerability. This paper argues that attention to Indigenous rights and development of good relationships and good processes of governance, autonomy and responsibility within communities as well as between them and governments is fundamental to sustainable Indigenous futures. Without this, neither government programs nor large-scale natural resource-based development projects can deliver sustainable futures for remote Indigenous groups. 相似文献
4.
Russell Hitchings 《Geoforum》2010,41(6):855-864
How might the fact that western people now spend so much of their time indoors impact upon techniques for studying urban greenspace experience? This paper takes this question as its starting point before substantiating one possible answer. It does so by using qualitative methods to examine the everyday practices of city professionals in London and what they tell us about the likelihood that this group will ever venture out into the various parks and gardens found around their offices. Many studies have considered which physical arrangements of city greenspace seem to deliver the greatest amounts of human benefit. Yet this kind of endeavour gives us only one part of the puzzle and contextual studies with those now generally found indoors have something important to add. It is with this in mind that the paper discusses how one sample of office workers quite easily forgot about these spaces, how certain social injunctions both pushed them outside and sealed them indoors, and why it sometimes made good sense for them to avoid any areas of local outdoor vegetation during the day. In so doing it highlights contextual dynamics that seem set to make significant impacts on the future of urban environmental experience and offers some novel suggestions about how best to promote positive greenspace relations in cities today. 相似文献
5.
《Geoforum》2015
In this paper we suggest that a construct known as “possible selves”, which has been developed in psychological literature, holds conceptual merits that are of use to a growing body of literature on youth transitions, and within it, an increasing interest in imagined futures. We highlight several benefits of possible selves that have emerged from our empirical research with young men in two English towns, Luton and Swindon. Research and theorization about youth futures has suggested that young people’s values and their perceived positions in society can be elicited and seen in their projections of themselves in the future. We conclude that possible selves provides a useful addition to this literature by offering a theorization of the link between imagined possibilities in the future and motivation to act in the present. We suggest that this construct opens the scope of empirical and theoretical enquiry into youth transitions and trajectories toward future possibilities. 相似文献
6.
自20世纪80年代以来,成都平原环境考古工作在聚落选址与地理环境、古气候与古蜀文明发展、灾变事件研究及史前人地关系综合研究等方面取得重要进展。研究表明: 成都平原史前城址群的出现与当时的地理环境应有很大关系;成都平原中—晚全新世以来气候整体温暖湿润,其中有多次气候波动和降温事件发生;古洪水、古地震等自然灾害与古蜀文明发展的关系很密切;基于成都平原诸多先秦遗址的人地关系综合研究表明,河流、地貌、气候等因素与史前聚落变迁有很大关系。总体上,成都平原环境考古工作经历了3个发展阶段。受限于研究材料和方法,目前仍然缺乏高分辨率古环境演变规律的研究成果;自然灾害与成都平原先秦时期古文化演变的一些重要节点的耦合关系仍不明确;今后还需要加强与河流地貌有关的聚落环境考古研究;利用地理信息系统和遥感技术分析环境变迁与人类活动关系以及定量和模型化研究史前人地关系也将是未来成都平原环境考古工作的重要内容。 相似文献
7.
Manuela Di Mauro Kusnowidjaia Megawati Veronica Cedillos Brian Tucker 《Natural Hazards》2013,68(2):373-404
A major tsunamigenic earthquake is expected in the near future along the coast of West Sumatra Province of Indonesia. In the city of Padang, the arrival time of the tsunami is expected to be ~30 min. Currently, there are approximately 400,000 people in the city living within the potential inundation zone. This study aimed to complement the existing research in appraising possible risk reduction interventions, specifically looking at enabling the timely evacuation of the area. This research, developed in consultation with national and local authorities, emergency planners and NGOs, analysed interventions for tsunami risk reduction in Padang through the development of a pedestrian and vehicular evacuation model and the appraisal of possible solutions to enhance the evacuation rates. Some of the conclusions from this research can be applied to other areas in Southeast Asia where the traffic patterns are similar to those in Padang and where the distance to safety is greater than 4–5 km. For the case of Padang, the results show that pedestrian evacuation is strongly preferable to vehicular evacuation due to the limited road capacity and the high population density. In the present situation, however, 70–80 % of the population in Padang could not evacuate within 30 min, even by foot. Common interventions such as widening roads and building bridges prove to be relatively ineffective in this case due to the large distance that has to be covered in a short time. These interventions would only have a decisive impact if a longer evacuation time was available (more than 60 min). In the case of Padang, the evacuation rate in the first 30 min is strongly dependent on the presence/absence of evacuation shelters, whose effectiveness is limited by the capacity of the structures. Building a few high-capacity and high-resilience structures such as evacuation hills is a more effective and robust evacuation strategy than constructing many small high-raised buildings. Even with evacuation structures, wider roads and bridges, about 20 % of the population would still be unable to reach safety by the time the tsunami arrives. This means about 70,000 people of Padang’s current population, which is rapidly increasing. The building of evacuation shelters may be a viable option for saving lives in the short term, but it is not a sustainable option in the medium to long term. It is therefore also necessary to set up and enforce regulations for land use planning that take into account the tsunami risk and prevent further urban development for the areas that may be affected by a tsunami. 相似文献
8.
Tao Pei 《Mathematical Geosciences》2011,43(3):345-362
The task of discriminating between heterogeneity and complete spatial randomness (CSR) for a given point process can be divided into three subtasks: the identification of the point pattern; the determination of the sizes of clusters; and the estimation of the numbers of events in dominant clusters. Many studies have been performed regarding the first and second subtasks. However, limited work has been done on the third aspect; hence, the determination of the number of events in each dominant cluster is still an unsolved problem. In this paper, we provide a solution by constructing a new index which is defined as the ratio between the variance of the (k+1)th nearest distance and that of the kth nearest distance. Our method can be divided into two phases: the detection of point pattern and the estimation of the numbers of events in dominant clusters. These phases can be estimated by the values at which the index abruptly decreases to be less than 1. A comparative study between the existing indices and our index shows the following: (i) our index can indicate the numbers of events in dominant clusters in a relatively objective way, which is different from the K-function revealing the sizes of clustered patterns; (ii) it is a nonparametric index and is easy to implement; and (iii) it demonstrates the highest detection power for differentiating between heterogeneity and CSR. The simulations and two seismic case studies also confirmed the correctness of our method. 相似文献
9.
Sonja Boehmer-Christiansen 《Geoforum》2002,33(3):351-365
Debates about implementing `sustainable development', `sustainability' or even `sustainable futures and resource use' are now engaging most intergovernmental and national bureaucracies. The notion itself appears to have replaced or become confused with efforts specifically directed at environmental protection, also a vague and contested notion. The origin, academic approaches and use of the idea is documented and discussed with reference to selected bureaucracies engaged in environmental `governance'. I ask why and with what impact these bureaucracies have adopted the term in the post cold-war era. The methodology used is political interest analysis: why have bureaucracies adopted the notion so eagerly since the later 1980s? I argue that the sustainability debate served to strengthen bureaucracy during an era when its powers were under attack. The debate promised to extend the role of bureaucracy from that of agent of policy implementation to that of significant political actor, required to select experts as well as futures. But to what purpose and in whose interest? In seeking `sustainability' have governments found more than a new tool for governing? I wish to stimulate theoretical and empirical investigations that replace the ubiquitous `policy-maker' of much academic research with an `actor' whose spatial nature, political roles and ambitions, as well as legal and resource limitations, are not ignored. 相似文献
10.
Local economic development policies have surged in Brazil over the past decade—a major shift in this regionally diverse country of 27 states, over 5000 municipalities, and the largest economy in Latin America. We review the stylized facts, expected patterns and policy recommendations from the foundational studies in regional and urban economics. We then provide a summary of a more recent stream of scholarship focused on local economic development (LED) studies in developed and developing countries that have surged in the last 20 years. Based on this review, we then systemize the findings emerging from studies focused on analyzing local economic development policies in Brazil recognizing the distinctive contributions emerging from both the empirical and the case studies literatures. We identify key lessons for (and from) the Brazilian experience and conclude that Brazil and Latin American countries need a new generation of studies that undertake more rigorous evaluations of these policy experiments. Finally, we recommend steps to advance such research. 相似文献
11.
Impact cratering is a geological process characterized by ultra-fast strain rates, which generates extreme shock pressure
and shock temperature conditions on and just below planetary surfaces. Despite initial skepticism, this catastrophic process
has now been widely accepted by geoscientists with respect to its importance in terrestrial — indeed, in planetary — evolution.
About 170 impact structures have been discovered on Earth so far, and some more structures are considered to be of possible
impact origin. One major extinction event, at the Cretaceous-Paleogene boundary, has been firmly linked with catastrophic
impact, but whether other important extinction events in Earth history, including the so-called “Mother of All Mass Extinctions”
at the Permian-Triassic boundary, were triggered by huge impact catastrophes is still hotly debated and a subject of ongoing
research. There is a beneficial side to impact events as well, as some impact structures worldwide have been shown to contain
significant (in some cases, world class) ore deposits, including the gold-uranium province of the Witwatersrand basin in South
Africa, the enormous Ni and PGE deposits of the Sudbury structure in Canada, as well as important hydrocarbon resources, especially
in North America. Impact cratering is not a process of the past, and it is mandatory to improve knowledge of the past-impact
record on Earth to better constrain the probability of such events in the future. In addition, further improvement of our
understanding of the physico-chemical and geological processes fundamental to the impact cratering process is required for
reliable numerical modeling of the process, and also for the correlation of impact magnitude and environmental effects. Over
the last few decades, impact cratering has steadily grown into an integrated discipline comprising most disciplines of the
geosciences as well as planetary science, which has created positive spin-offs including the study of paleo-environments and
paleo-climatology, or the important issue of life in extreme environments. And yet, in many parts of the world, the impact
process is not yet part of the geoscience curriculum, and for this reason, it deserves to be actively promoted not only as
a geoscientific discipline in its own right, but also as an important life-science discipline. 相似文献
12.
Jan Blahut Ilaria Poretti Mattia De Amicis Simone Sterlacchini 《Natural Hazards》2012,60(3):1065-1083
This paper presents the results of a research concerning available historical information about natural hazards (landslides
and floods) and consequent disasters in the Consortium of Mountain Municipalities of Valtellina di Tirano, in Northern Italy.
A geo-referenced database, collecting information till 2008, was designed with the aim of using available data of historical
events for hazard estimation and the definition of risk scenarios as a basis for Civil Protection planning and emergency management
purposes. This database and related statistics about landslides and floods are shown, and a brief overview of historical disasters
caused by natural hazards in the study area is presented. A case study showing how useful the database can be to define a
simple but realistic scenario is described. Information availability and reliability is discussed and possible uncertainties
are underlined. The study shows that collecting and making use of historical information for the definition of hypothetical
scenarios and the evaluation of territorial threats is a fundamental source of knowledge to deal with future emergencies. 相似文献
13.
During the last several decades, harmful algal bloom (HAB) events have been observed in more locations than ever before throughout the United States. Scientists have identified a larger number of algal species involved in HABs, more toxins have been uncovered, and more fisheries resources have been affected. Whether this apparent increase in HAB events is a real phenomenon or is the result of increased sampling and monitoring is a topic of intense discussions within the scientific community. We also have an inchoate understanding of the reasons for the apparent increase, particularly concerning the role of anthropogenic nutrient loadings as a causal factor. Whatever the reasons, virtually all coastal regions of the U.S. are now regarded as potentially subject to a wide variety and increased frequency of HABs. It is important to begin to understand the scale of the economic costs to society of such natural hazards. It is a common, but not yet widespread, practice for resource managers and scientists in many localities to develop rough estimates of the economic effects of HAB events in terms of lost sales in the relevant product or factor markets, expenditures for medical treatments, environmental monitoring and management budgets, or other types of costs. These estimates may be invoked in policy debates, often without concern about how they were developed. Although such estimates are not necessarily good measures of the true costs of HABs to society, they may help to measure the scale of losses and be suggestive of their distribution across political jurisdictions or industry sectors. With adequate interpretation, our thinking about appropriate policy responses may be guided by these estimates. Here we compile disparate estimates of the economic effects of HABs for events in the U.S. where such effects were measured during 1987–1992. We consider effects of four basic types: public health, commercial fisheries, recreation and tourism, and monitoring and management. We discuss many of the issues surrounding the nature of these estimates, their relevance as measures of the social costs of natural hazards, and their potential for comparability and aggregation into a national estimate. 相似文献
14.
Review of paleoseismological and active fault studies in Taiwan in the light of the Chichi earthquake of September 21, 1999 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
This paper reviews the research on active and earthquake faults in Taiwan conducted prior and after the 1999 Chichi earthquake. The Chichi earthquake plays as a turning point of the relevant studies, since the 1999 coseismic surface rupture exactly follows preexisting fault scarps, created in turn by previous seismic events along the Chelungpu Fault. This fact indicates that the precise mapping on the other active faults is fundamental to predict the location of surface rupture caused by large future earthquakes. Since 1999, many trenching studies have been carried out along the Chichi earthquake fault. A few of them demonstrates that the penultimate event is as young as probably only 200–430 years old; however, some others show a rather old age of several hundreds years or even older for the last faulting event before 1999. More trenching studies are necessary for such a long fault in order to understand the possible segmentation features and the correlation of the paleoseismic events identified along the entire fault length. In addition, we further discuss the offshore faulting associated with seismic event along the eastern coast of Taiwan, where the multiple Holocene terraces are well known. 相似文献
15.
In the last decades, floods have increased in frequency all over the world due to diverse phenomena such as climate change, extended urbanization, land use, etc. Their social, cultural, economic and environmental impacts have also grown significantly, highlighting the need for the development of further studies and improved methods to manage and mitigate flood risk, mainly in urban areas. Historic sites need particular attention in this field, not only because the high and irreplaceable cultural value of these areas, but also taking into account that the constructive typologies that they host are particularly vulnerable to natural hazards. In consequence of that, the analysis of the phenomena, the evaluation of their consequences and the adoption of adequate mitigation and preparedness measures are presently a fundamental societal challenge. Having this in mind, the present paper aims at proposing an innovative methodology focused on the assessment of flood vulnerability in historic sites through the evaluation of a set of exposure and sensitivity indicators. From the analysis of these indicators, it is possible to obtain a Flood Vulnerability Index capable of measuring the spread of flood vulnerability over an extended area. The historic centre of Guimarães, in Portugal, declared by UNESCO as a World Heritage Site in 2001, is used here as a pilot case study to apply and discusses the preliminary version of the approach. Although some improvements are still needed, this approach can be already used to provides preliminary vulnerability scenarios and to point the way to the definition of more efficient and customized strategies for managing and mitigating flood risk in historic sites. Moreover, with further improvements and calibrations resorting to larger and more diverse data, it will be possible to reduce some of the uncertainties currently involved in the assessment process and to make its application wider and more robust.
相似文献16.
Research progress in volcanology in the Neapolitan area, southern Italy: a review and some alternative views 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Benedetto De Vivo Paola Petrosino Annamaria Lima Giuseppe Rolandi Harvey E. Belkin 《Mineralogy and Petrology》2010,99(1-2):1-28
Comprehensive reviews are given for the major volcanic systems that occur in the greater metropolitan area of Naples, southern Italy; Mt. Somma-Vesuvius to the east and the Campi Flegrei volcanic system to the west. Also included in the review is a detailed discussion of the large, highly explosive Campania Volcanic Zone (CVZ) ignimbrite events. These volcanic areas have been studied for more than 100 years, yet significant differences of opinion exist related to fundamental issues of origin and distribution. We present some alternative views related to petrogenesis on some issues based on more than 25 years of research. The relationship between risk assessment and management that impacts the threatened society or culture and the past and ongoing fundamental volcanological research is an essential part of the science. Countries with limited resources may be forced to accept an increased risk but even highly industrialized societies may not be able to completely eliminate deaths from volcanic eruptions. Scientific studies of the hazardous regions should be comprehensive and include reasonable alternative interpretations as this information reveals the level of confidence that must be conveyed to the public officials. The authors review the state of the art of risk assessment and management of the volcanic hazards in the Neapolitan region in light of the review of research. 相似文献
17.
One important consideration in the design of a braced excavation system is to ensure that the structural bracing system is designed both safely and economically. The forces acting on the struts are often determined using empirical methods such as the Apparent Pressure Diagram (APD) method developed by Peck (1969). Most of these empirical methods that were developed from either numerical analysis or field studies have been for excavations with flexible wall types such as sheetpile walls. There have been only limited studies on the excavation performance for stiffer wall systems such as diaphragm walls and bored piles. In this paper, both 2D and 3D finite element analyses were carried out to study the forces acting on the struts for braced excavations in clays, with focus on the performance for the stiffer wall systems. Subsequently, based on this numerical study as well as field measurements from a number of reported case histories, empirical charts have been proposed for determining strut loads for excavations in stiff wall systems. 相似文献
18.
《Journal of African Earth Sciences》2007,47(1):30-38
Whilst groundwater vulnerability mapping and the delineation of resource and source protection zones have become an appropriate set of management tools for Britain as incorporated in European policy, much of semi-arid Africa is still dealing with more pressing issues centred on water supply coverage. There are a number of fundamental differences with Britain which disallow conventional vulnerability mapping and land zonation in much of Africa. Firstly, the scale of groundwater occurrence in weathered basement aquifers does not encourage vulnerability mapping to be undertaken at a field scale, whereas the Karoo and some of the larger areas of unconsolidated sedimentary aquifers could more readily be zoned according to aquifer vulnerability. Secondly, analysis needs to disregard the productivity (or recharge potential) of the aquifer so that poorly productive but socially important aquifers can be assessed. Such practice also avoids the need to identify a value for effective rainfall, a problematical value in semi-arid climates given current uncertainties. Thirdly, it is difficult to protect the many small and dispersed groundwater supply sources typical of many African communities when compared with the fewer and larger sources characteristic of Britain and Europe. Some aspects of European groundwater management practice have been transferred to the African context, notably by South Africa, but there are other practices that should not be attempted. Lessons from experience in South Africa highlight capacity to implement as a key inhibiting factor. Examples of vulnerability assessment and land zonation in a variety of African settings indicate only limited success so far with standard vulnerability assessment and land zonation techniques. Alternative means of quantifying the problem of the optimum proximity of the pit latrine from the well are highlighted, with a minimum separation of 10 m suggested for typical weathered basement rocks. 相似文献
19.
Managing the risks of extreme events such as natural disasters to advance climate change adaptation (CCA) has been a global focus. However, a critical challenge in supporting CCA is to improve its linkage with disaster risk reduction (DRR). Based on discussions on similarities and differences between CCA and DRR concerning their spatial–temporal scales, main focuses, preferred research approaches and methodologies, etc., this paper tentatively put forward an analytical framework of “6W” for linking DRR with CCA. This framework presented preliminary answers to a series of fundamental questions, such as “What is adaptation with respect to disaster risk?” “Why adaptation is needed?” “Who adapt to what?” “How to adapt?” “What are the possible principles to assess the adaptation effect?” To bridge the research gaps between CCA and DRR, it is imperative to associate the adaptation actions with both near-term disaster risk and long-term climate change and formulate adaptation strategies at various spatial–temporal scales by embracing uncertainty in a changing climate. 相似文献
20.
南岭地区地质工作程度较高,但近20年来地质找矿与科研工作投入不足,导致南岭地区一些优势矿产储量消耗过快,影响到矿业的可持续发展。近年来,南岭地区芙蓉锡矿等一批新矿产地和八仙脑式破碎带蚀变岩型钨矿等一批新矿床类型的发现,充分说明,只要认真开展成矿预测研究,配合地质找矿实践,在南岭地区取得找矿突破的可能性并不亚于西部地区。因此,目前迫切需要加强对南岭地区成矿规律的深入研究,尤其是加强矿床成矿系列、成矿体系、成矿物质来源及其超常规富集成矿机制、大型超大型矿床与矿集区、常规优势矿产与非优势矿产之间相关关系等方面的创新性研究与探索,为危机矿山“探边摸底”和新矿产地的发现提供理论指导和科学依据。 相似文献