共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 455 毫秒
1.
Mountain range specific analog weather forecast model is developed utilizing surface weather observations of reference stations
in each mountain range in northwest Himalaya (NW-Himalaya). The model searches past similar cases from historical dataset
of reference observatory in each mountain range based on current situation. The searched past similar cases of each mountain
range are used to draw weather forecast for that mountain range in operational weather forecasting mode, three days in advance.
The developed analog weather forecast model is tested with the independent dataset of more than 717 days (542 days for Pir
Panjal range in HP) of the past 4 winters (2003–2004 to 2006–2007). Independent test results are reasonably good and suggest
that there is some possibility of forecasting weather in operational weather forecasting mode employing analog method over
different mountain ranges in NW-Himalaya. Significant difference in overall accuracy of the model is found for prediction
of snow day and no-snow day over different mountain ranges, when weather is predicted under snow day and no-snow day weather
forecast categories respectively. In the same mountain range, significant difference is also found in overall accuracy of
the model for prediction of snow day and no-snow day for different areas. This can be attributed to their geographical position
and topographical differences. The analog weather forecast model performs better than persistence and climatological forecast
for day-1 predictions for all the mountain ranges except Karakoram range in NW-Himalaya. The developed analog weather forecast
model may help as a guidance tool for forecasting weather in operational weather forecasting mode in different mountain ranges
in NW-Himalaya. 相似文献
2.
Stanley A. Changnon 《Natural Hazards》2007,43(3):295-301
A market place designed to provide a variety of weather-sensitive institutions with products for dealing with their risks
from weather-climate hazards has been developing in recent years. Shifts in demographics, growing population, and greater
wealth across the U.S., coupled with de-regulation of utilities and expansion of global economics, have increased corporate
vulnerability to weather/climate extremes. Availability of long-term quality climate data and new technologies have allowed
development of weather-risk products. One widely used by electric-gas utilities is weather derivatives. These allow a utility
to select a financially critical seasonal weather threshold and for a price paid to a provider, to get financial payments
if this threshold is exceeded. Another new product primarily used by the insurance industry is weather risk models. These
define the potential risks of severe weather losses across a region where little historical insured loss data exists. Firms
develop weather-risk models based on historical storm information combined with a target region’s societal, economic, and
physical conditions. Examples of the derivatives and weather-risk models and their uses are presented. These various endeavors
of the new weather market exhibit the potential for dealing with shifts in weather risks due to a change in climate. 相似文献
3.
Krisanadej Jaroensutasinee Wittaya Pheera Mullica Jaroensutasinee 《Earth Science Informatics》2014,7(3):205-213
As large quantities of physical data are always collected for Ecoinformatics research, it is difficult for them to be cleaned, shared, visualized, and analyzed by research collaborators. To resolve this difficulty, this study presents online weather data analysis and visualization cyber-infrastructures consisting of (1) online weather data analysis and visualization tools and (2) near real-time online weather data portal. Firstly, these online tools at www.twibl.org/weather provide data sharing in three web pages: information on instruments and site; data access protected by simple password security; data analysis and visualization services so-called “Ecoinfows”. Secondly, the near real-time online weather data portal for visualizing and forecasting weather data from cloud storage of many automatic weather stations is online at www.twibl.org/aaportal. To overcome speed and accessibility problems, we developed these tools with many technologies - i.e. cloud computing, online computing XML (webMathematica), and binary access data conversion. 相似文献
4.
利用最小二乘支持向量机(LS-SVM)方法,建立了基于天气预报的参考作物腾发量(ET0)的预测模型.对广利灌区1997~2006年逐日气象信息中的天气类型和风速等级进行量化后,以不同天气预报信息作为输入量,建立10种验证方案,对2007年的逐日ET0进行预测.经验证,方案1~方案7精度均令人满意,其中方案1精度最高.方案1的输入量为气温、天气类型、风速等级3项的预测值,该方案的模型预测值与计算值的统计参数分别为:均方根偏差ERMS为0.5182 mm,相对偏差ER为0.1878,决定系数R2为0.864 8,认同系数IA为0.966 9,回归系数RC为0.9867;方案7精度亦较好,且以上指标统计参数依次为0.6576 mm、0.2332、0.986 6、0.774 7及0.986 6,该方案输入量只有气温项,实用性很强. 相似文献
5.
R. Molarius V. Könönen P. Leviäkangas Zulkarnain J. Rönty A.-M. Hietajärvi K. Oiva 《Natural Hazards》2014,72(1):189-210
The European 7th Framework Programme project Extreme Weather impacts on European Networks of Transport devised a holistic analysis of extreme weather risks for the transport system. The analysis provided an overview of extreme weather risks, or a risk panorama. The risk panorama was built on a probabilistic approach to extreme weather phenomena occurrences and on vulnerability analysis based on selected macro-level economic and transport system indicators of the member states of EU-27. The panorama covers all transport modes and views infrastructure-related risks, time delay risks, and accidents risks. In addition to climatic circumstances, the devised risk indicator is also dependent on regional circumstances, such as population and transport density and income level. This paper describes the construct and application of an extreme weather risk indicator (EWRI). EWRIs are counted for each country and each transport mode separately. Furthermore, this paper also presents the most significant extreme weather events in different parts of Europe and on the transport modes they affect the most. 相似文献
6.
Paul J. Valdes 《Geology Today》1999,15(1):24-29
A weather forecast for 22 September 150 million years ago: 'Most of Britain will continue to enjoy a sunny end to the summer. Winds remain calm, but some cloud may develop by the end of the day. Further afield, India and Australia are experiencing some stormy weather with severe gales across the northern coast of India.' 相似文献
7.
Cinzia Cervato William Gallus Pete Boysen Michael Larsen 《Earth Science Informatics》2011,4(4):181-189
The online Dynamic Weather Forecaster is an open, collaborative application available now to high-school and college instructors
across the United States who would like to easily incorporate weather forecasting in their instruction. The application consists
of a set of 13 questions that allow students to submit forecasts that cover most of the parameters used by professional weather
forecasters. Submissions are automatically validated against weather parameters and graded. We tested the impact of the application
on the learning of 199 undergraduate students in an introductory meteorology course in spring 2008. Students who begin forecasting
early in the semester and continue to do so throughout the semester are statistically significantly more successful in the
course than students who start late or complete a low number of forecasts. College, year in school, and gender were not significant
predictors of success. Students found the application easy to use, and 92.3% of them found it at least somewhat helpful as
they learned about the weather. Through the use of the DWF, students also experience first-hand that uncertainty is a critical
part of weather forecasting and of scientific studies in general. With sufficient interest from potential users outside the
USA, the DWF platform could easily be expanded to include global weather data. 相似文献
8.
Renato Macciotta C. Derek Martin Tom Edwards David M. Cruden Tim Keegan 《Georisk: Assessment and Management of Risk for Engineered Systems and Geohazards》2015,9(3):171-186
Relationships between weather conditions and rock fall occurrences have been acknowledged in the past, but seldom have such relationships been quantified and published. Rock falls are frequent hazards along transportation corridors through mountainous terrain, and predicting hazardous rock fall periods based on weather conditions can enhance mitigation approaches. We investigate the relationship between weather conditions and rock fall occurrences along a railway section through the Canadian Cordillera. Monthly weather-rock fall trends suggest that the seasonal variation in rock fall frequency is associated with cycles of freezing and thawing during the winter months. The intensity of precipitation and freeze–thaw cycles for different time-windows was then compared against recorded rock falls on a case-by-case approach. We found that periods when 90% of rock falls occurred could be predicted by the 3-day antecedent precipitation and freeze–thaw cycles. Some rock falls not predicted by this 3-day antecedent approach occurred during the first two weeks of spring thaw. These findings are used to propose a rock fall hazard chart, based on readily available weather data, to aid railway operators in their decision-making regarding safe operations. 相似文献
9.
2004年“云娜”台风的监视和预报工作中，在应用常规天气资料的基础上加强了对历史热带气旋资料、天气雷达资料和过去对台风与台风暴雨分析预报研究成果的运用。在台风登陆前、登陆过程中和登陆后三个不同阶段中，应用多种资料进行有针对性的分析判断，并向防台风指挥部门及时提供信息服务，在防台工作中发挥了有效作用。， 相似文献
10.
Efficiency in modern shipping must not come at the expense of undertaking avoidable risks. The complexity of most activities in shipping requires a cooperative effort made by specialists to comprehend the uncertainties of risk and to seek measures for its reduction. Such an effort, however, must not hinder operations but aim at promoting productivity by addressing those factors that have a negative effect on it. This imperative need to deal with the problems of risk led to the development of a series of risk-related disciplines. Identifying the factors that create hazards and finding an effective way of minimizing them, whenever possible, leads to smoother operations, better time frames and, eventually, lower costs. One of the factors that can generate risks and reduce productivity in maritime-related operations is weather. Like any other factor that bears uncertainties and risks, weather hampers actual port operations (such as the loading/unloading of goods and passengers), but it also leads to problems for a whole chain of upstream and downstream industries. In this study, an attempt is made to identify and register hazardous weather trends in the Port of Limassol (used as a case study for Mediterranean ports). An up-to-date picture of the prevailing weather conditions in the area is presented with the aim to provide vital information for risk assessment purposes, both in the short and in the long term. 相似文献
11.
Climate change and increased risk for the insurance sector: a global perspective and an assessment for the Netherlands 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
Climate change is projected to increase the frequency and severity of extreme weather events. As a consequence, economic losses
caused by natural catastrophes could increase significantly. This will have considerable consequences for the insurance sector.
On the one hand, increased risk from weather extremes requires assessing expected changes in damage and including adequate
climate change projections in risk management. On the other hand, climate change can also bring new business opportunities
for insurers. This paper gives an overview of the consequences of climate change for the insurance sector and discusses several
strategies to cope with and adapt to increased risks. The particular focus is on the Dutch insurance sector, as the Netherlands
is extremely vulnerable to climate change, especially with regard to extreme precipitation and flooding. Current risk sharing
arrangements for weather risks are examined while potential new business opportunities, adaptation strategies, and public–private
partnerships are identified. 相似文献
12.
Risk assessment of natural hazards is often based on the actual or forecast weather situation. For estimating such climate-related risks, it is important to obtain weather data as frequently as possible. One commonly used climate interpolation routine is DAYMET, which in its current form is not able to update its database for periods of less than a year. In this paper, we report the construction of a new climate database with a standard interface and implement a framework for providing daily updated weather data for online daily weather interpolations across regions. We re-implement the interpolation routines from DAYMET to be compliant with the data handling in the new framework. We determine the optimal number of stations used in two possible interpolation routines, assess the error bounds using an independent validation dataset and compare the results with a previous validation study based on the original DAYMET implementation. Mean absolute errors are 1°C for maximum and minimum temperature, 28 mm for precipitation, 3.2 MJ/m² for solar radiation and 1 hPa for vapour pressure deficit, which is in the range of the original DAYMET routine. Finally, we provide an example application of the methodology and derive a fire danger index for a 1 km grid over Austria. 相似文献
13.
Inclement weather creates a chronic hazard for Canadian travellers. Past studies indicate that road collision rates increase during precipitation, although the magnitude of theincrease varies from study to study, partly as a result of variations in weather and driving conditions,but also because of differences in methods. The goal of the current study is to improve ourunderstanding of the links between weather and travel risk in mid-sized Canadian cities by using astandardized method for analyzing data from six cities with different climates: Halifax-Dartmouth,Ottawa, Québec, Hamilton, Waterloo Region, and Regina. The study has four interrelated objectives: (1) Toconduct a sensitivity analysis to determine the extent to which risk estimates vary depending onthe criteria used to define precipitation events and `normal' conditions; (2) To compare therelative risk of collision and injury during precipitation relative to `normal' conditions; (3) Todetermine the extent to which weather-related risks vary fordifferent Canadian cities; and (4) To explore any differences in collision characteristics between events and controls, especially as theyvary from city to city. Results are based on a matched-pair analysis, using six-hour time blocks over afour-year period, 1995 to 1998. Results indicate only modest sensitivity to the criteria used to define precipitation events and `normal' conditions. On average, precipitation is associated with a 75 percentincrease in traffic collisions and a 45 percent increase in related injuries, as compared to `normal'seasonal conditions, but risk levels vary depending on the characteristics of the weather event.Both sensitivity to specific weather conditions and weather-related accident profiles vary from city tocity in ways that are not easily explained. 相似文献
14.
15.
一种人工影响天气微型无人驾驶飞机及初步试验 总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5
人工影响天气微型无人驾驶飞机用于复杂天气下人影作业，是可控和可回收探测器和播撒器。人工影响天气微型无人驾驶飞机系统由微型飞机、任务载荷（机载撒播装置和探测装置）及地面监视控制三部分构成。飞行前通过计算机给飞机上的机载控制系统设置航线,遥控起飞后可由机载控制系统控制,飞机按照预定航线进行自主飞行。在需要修改飞行方向时，也可通过遥控终端发出指令。在到达作业高度后，通过遥控终端发出指令，飞机开始播撒作业。在整个飞行过程中飞机不断探测大气温压湿和风，连续将探测资料和飞行数据发送给地面监视终端。通过试验验证了人工影响天气微型无人驾驶飞机飞行性能和探测能力：能够在携带1 kg播撒剂的情况下，飞达6 km的高度，作业半径20 km；能在雨天进行播撒作业和探测；飞机采用手掷起飞，对起飞的场地几乎没有要求；采用降落伞降落，可选择草地、农田降落。初步分析了对对流降水和雷电天气的适应能力。 相似文献
16.
Qing Sun Zaiqiang Yang Xianghong Che Wei Han Fangmin Zhang Fang Xiao 《Natural Hazards》2018,91(1):69-88
The growth of early rice is often threatened by a phenomenon known as Grain Buds Cold, a period of anomalously cold temperatures during the booting and flowering stage. As a high yield loss due to Grain Buds Cold will lead to increasing insurance premiums, quantifying the impact of weather on crop yield is crucial to the design of weather index insurance. In this study, we propose a new approach to the estimation of premium rates of Grain Buds Cold weather index insurance. A 2-year artificial controlled experiment was utilized to develop logarithmic and linear yield loss models. Additionally, incorporating 51 years of meteorological data, an information diffusion model was used to calculate the probability of different durations of Grain Buds Cold, ranging from 3 to 20 days. The results show that the pure premium rates determined by a logarithmic yield loss model exhibit lower risk and greater efficiency than those determined by a linear yield loss model. The premium rates of Grain Buds Cold weather index insurance were found to fluctuate between 7.085 and 10.151% at the county level in Jiangxi Province, while the premium rates based on the linear yield loss model were higher (ranging from 7.787 to 11.672%). Compared with common statistical methods, the artificial controlled experiment presented below provides a more robust, reliable and accurate way of analyzing the relationship between yield and a single meteorological factor. At the same time, the minimal data requirements of this experimental approach indicate that this method could be very important in regions lacking historical yield and climate data. Estimating weather index insurance accurately will help farmers address extreme cold weather risk under changing climatic conditions. 相似文献
17.
《翁心存日记》是迄今为止发现的记录天气现象最为详细的历史天气日记,保留了难得的19世纪中叶北京的沙尘天气记录。归纳了对历史文献记录中的沙尘天气进行分类的方法,通过《翁心存日记》,重建了19世纪中叶北京沙尘天气情况。分析发现当时北京年平均沙尘日多达31.36天,高于近60年来北京沙尘天气的平均水平。而19世纪中叶的北京沙尘天气中扬沙、浮尘和沙尘暴天气的构成和现代基本相似,年内分布特征也较相似。但19世纪中叶夏季沙尘比例较现代明显偏多46％,而冬季沙尘比例仅为现代比例的75％,这说明古今间沙尘天气的季节分布可能存在较大差异。另外,19世纪的沙尘天气同样存在明显的年际变化,且本地降水是影响年际变化的因素之一。 相似文献
18.
《Comptes Rendus Geoscience》2005,337(1-2):203-217
Advances in flood forecasting have been constrained by the difficulty of estimating rainfall continuously over space, for catchment-, national- and continental-scale areas. This has had a concomitant impact on the choice of appropriate model formulations for given flood-forecasting applications. Whilst weather radar used in combination with raingauges – and extended to utilise satellite remote-sensing and numerical weather prediction models – have offered the prospect of progress, there have been significant problems to be overcome. These problems have curtailed the development and adoption of more complete distributed model formulations that aim to increase forecast accuracy. Advanced systems for weather radar display and processing, and for flood forecast construction, are now available to ease the task of implementation. Applications requiring complex networks of models to make forecasts at many locations can be undertaken without new code development and be readily revised to take account of changing requirements. These systems make use of forecast-updating procedures that assimilate data from telemetry networks to improve flood forecast performance, at the same time coping with the possibility of data loss. Flood forecasting systems that integrate rainfall monitoring and forecasting with flood forecasting and warning are now operational in many areas. Present practice in flood modelling and forecast updating is outlined from a UK perspective. Challenges for improvement are identified, particularly against a background of greater access to spatial datasets on terrain, soils, geology, land-cover, and weather variables. Representing the effective runoff production and translation processes operating at a given grid or catchment scale may prove key to improved flood simulation, and robust application to ungauged basins through physics-based linkages with these spatial datasets. The need to embrace uncertainty in flood-warning decision-making is seen as a major challenge for the future. To cite this article: R.J. Moore et al., C. R. Geoscience 337 (2005). 相似文献
19.
In consideration of large uncertainties in severe convective weather forecast, ensemble forecasting is a dynamic method developed to quantitatively estimate forecast uncertainty. Based on ensemble output, joint probability is a post-processing method to delineate key areas where weather event may actually occur by taking account of the uncertainty of several important physical parameters. An investigation of the environments of little rainfall convection and strong rainfall convection from April to September (warm season) during 2009-2015 was presented using daily disastrous weather data, precipitation data of 80 stations in Anhui province and NCEP Final Analysis (FNL) data. Through ingredients-based forecasting methodology and statistical analysis,four convective parameters characterizing two types of convection were obtained, respectively, which were used to establish joint probability forecasting together with their corresponding thresholds. Using the ECMWF ensemble forecast and observations from April to September during 2016-2017, systematic verification mainly based on ROC and case study of different weather processes were conducted. The results demonstrate that joint probability method is capable of discriminating little rainfall convection and non-convection with comparable performance for different lead times, which is more favorable to identifying the occurrence of strong rainfall convection. The joint probability of little rainfall convection is a good indication for the occurrence of regional or local convection, but may produce some false alarms. The joint probability of strong rainfall convection is good at indicating regional concentrated short-term heavy precipitation as well as local heavy rainfall. There are also individual missing reports in this method, and in practice, 10% can be roughly used as joint probability threshold to achieve relative high TS score. Overall, ensemble-based joint probability method can provide practical short-term probabilistic guidance for severe convective weather. 相似文献
20.
《Earth》2009,94(3-4):77-84
In this paper, the history of surface weather observations in the United States is reviewed. Local weather observations were first documented in the 17th Century along the East Coast. For many years, the progression of a weather observation from an initial reading to dissemination remained a slow and laborious process. The number of observers remained small and unorganized until agencies including the Surgeon General, Army, and General Land Office began to request regular observations at satellite locations in the 1800s. The Smithsonian was responsible for first organizing a large “network” of volunteer weather observers across the nation. These observers became the foundation for today's Cooperative Observer network. As applications of weather data continued to grow and users required the data with an ever-decreasing latency, automated weather networks saw rapid growth in the later part of the 20th century. Today, the number of weather observations across the U.S. totals in the tens of thousands due largely to privately-owned weather networks and amateur weather observers who submit observations over the internet. 相似文献