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1.
地震三要素的短临预测对抗震减灾意义重大,但实现的难度很大,仍是个世界难题。笔者应用卫星红外异常增温时空演变规律对2013年4月20日芦山地震作了研究,并在2013年4月21日全国天灾预测委员会学术研讨会上作出了分析。文中简要剖析了芦山地震的构造背景和成因机理。芦山地震是我国西部地震构造区新发生的MS 7.0级大地震,其成因同汶川地震相似,主要受到印度板块NE向对青藏地块推挤,南北压缩挤出断块向SEE滑动,受到四川盆地以西龙门山断裂带强烈阻挡,积能释放后发震。文中重点介绍了红外增温时空演变规律进行短临地震预测的过程。震前红外增温异常的动态变化是地震构造活动的反应,时间上一般经历初始增温-加强增温-高峰增温-衰减到发震的4个阶段。 相似文献
2.
Hiroo Kanamori 《Tectonophysics》1974,21(4):341-356
In view of the potential importance of long-period ground motion in the design of large structures, near-field ground displacement is computed by the elastic dislocation theory for several earthquake fault models. The validity of such computations is confirmed by comparing the computed seismogram with the observed long-period seismogram of the 1923 Kanto earthquake. The ground motions are computed for three hypothetical earthquakes, a hypothetical Kanto earthquake, Tokai earthquake and Nemuro-Oki earthquake. The location and the nature of the faulting of these earthquakes are predicted by plate tectonics and precise earthquake mechanism studies. Major conclusions are: Tokyo may suffer, in the hypothetical Kanto earthquake, ground motions about half as large as those experienced in the 1923 Kanto earthquake; Hamamatsu, a large city on the Tokai coast, may experience in the hypothetical Tokai earthquake ground motions which are as large as, or even larger than, those experienced in the epicentral area of the 1923 Kanto earthquake; the hypothetical Nemuro-Oki earthquake may cause ground motions as large as those experienced in the 1968 Tokachi-Oki earthquake on the coastal cities in Hokkaido. 相似文献
3.
P. Mahesh Amit Bansal B. Kundu J. K. Catherine V. K. Gahalaut 《Journal of the Geological Society of India》2011,77(3):243-251
The recent 10 August 2009 Coco earthquake (Mw 7.5), the largest aftershock of the giant 2004 Sumatra Andaman earthquake, occurred
within the subducting India plate under the Burma plate. The Coco earthquake nucleated near the northwestern edge of the 2004
Sumatra-Andaman earthquake rupture under the unruptured updip segment of the plate boundary interface. The earthquake with
predominant normal motion on approximately north-south to northeast-southwest oriented plane is very similar to the 27 June
2008 Little Andaman earthquake which occurred in the South Andaman region near the trench. We provide the only available estimate
of coseismic offset due to the 2009 Coco earthquake at a survey-mode GPS site in the north Andaman, located about 60 km south
of the Coco earthquake epicentre. The not so large coseismic displacement of about 2 cm in the ESE direction is consistent
with the earthquake focal mechanism and its magnitude. We suggest that, like the 2008 Little Andaman earthquake, this earthquake
too occurred on one of the approximately north-south to northeast-southwest oriented steep planes of the obliquely subducting
90°E ridge which was reactivated in normal motion after subduction, under the favourable influence of coseismic and ongoing
postseismic deformation due to the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake. Another notable feature of this earthquake is its relatively
low aftershock productivity. We suggest that the earthquake occurred very close to the aseismic region of the Irrawaddy frontal
arc of very low seismicity where pre-existing faults are not so critically stressed and because of which the earthquake could
trigger only a few aftershocks in its immediate vicinity. 相似文献
4.
5.
本文分析了台湾地区近期 5 5级以上地震的时空图象 ,发现台湾地区从 93年开始5 5级以上地震逐渐形成一条中强地震共轭条带 ,其中主条带长仅 30 0公里左右。强震条带形成后 ,1 999年 9月 2 1日在主条带的西南段 1 /3处条带的西侧边缘南投发生了7 6级地震。南投地震后 ,5 5级以上地震条带仍然存在 ,2 0 0 2年 3月 31日在共轭条带交汇处附近苏沃海外发生了 7 5级地震。在共轭条带内相隔两年半时间里发生两次 7级以上地震实属罕见 相似文献
6.
Naoki Uchida Satoshi Yui Satoshi Miura Toru Matsuzawa Akira Hasegawa Yoshinobu Motoya Minoru Kasahara 《Gondwana Research》2009,16(3-4):527-533
We analyzed small repeating earthquakes recorded over a 13-year period and GPS data recorded over an 8-month period to estimate interplate quasi-static slip associated with the 2003 Tokachi-oki earthquake (M8.0) and the 2004 off-Kushiro earthquake (M7.1). The repeating-earthquake analysis revealed that the slip rate near the source region of the Tokachi-oki earthquake was relatively low (< 5 cm/year) prior to the earthquake; however, in the last 3 years leading up to the event, a minor acceleration in slip occurred upon the deeper extension of the coseismic slip area of the earthquake. Repeating-earthquake and GPS data indicate that large amounts of afterslip occurred around the rupture area following the earthquake; the afterslip mainly propagated to the east of the coseismic slip area. We also infer that the occurrence of the 2004 off-Kushiro earthquake, located about 100 km northeast of the epicenter of the Tokachi-oki earthquake, was advanced by the afterslip associated with the Tokachi-oki earthquake. 相似文献
7.
岩土边坡地震稳定性分析是岩土工程和地震工程研究的重要课题之一,本文明确区别了两种不同意义的边坡地震稳定性概念:一是按一定的抗震设防地震作用考虑,边坡现状强度与边坡强度退化到发生地震破坏时的临界强度相比较而言的储备强度稳定性;二是对于一定的边坡强度状态,使边坡发生动力破坏的地震作用与设防地震作用相比较而言的地震动力超载稳定性。考虑边坡强度退化的边坡稳定性概念已经得到普遍采用,分析方法较为熟知;而按动力超载考虑的边坡地震稳定性概念以往几乎没有提及,边坡稳定性判别标准和分析方法尚有待探讨。本文主要针对第二种边坡地震稳定性地震动力超载稳定性的衡量标准和分析方法进行了研究,提出了边坡地震动力超载稳定性评判的临界地震峰值加速度准则,并提出了边坡地震动力超载稳定性分析的荷载增强法:针对边坡的现状强度状态,由小到大逐渐增加地震作用的强度,搜索导致边坡失稳的临界地震峰值加速度,最后根据边坡临界地震峰值加速度与边坡所在区域的设防地震峰值加速度比较情况确定边坡的地震稳定性。论文采用荷载增强法对中国陕西宝鸡蟠龙塬黄土边坡地震动力超载稳定性进行了分析。结果表明,针对宝鸡地区未来50a超越概率为10%的地震动作用,该边坡具有较高的地震动力超载稳定性。 相似文献
8.
The hazard assessment of potential earthquake-induced landslides is an important aspect of the study of earthquake-induced landslides. In this study, we assessed the hazard of potential earthquake-induced landslides in Huaxian County with a new hazard assessment method. This method is based on probabilistic seismic hazard analysis and the Newmark cumulative displacement assessment model. The model considers a comprehensive suite of information, including the seismic activities and engineering geological conditions in the study area, and simulates the uncertainty of the intensity parameters of the engineering geological rock groups using the Monte Carlo method. Unlike previous assessment studies on ground motions with a given exceedance probability level, the hazard of earthquake-induced landslides obtained by the method presented in this study allows for the possibility of earthquake-induced landslides in different parts of the study area in the future. The assessment of the hazard of earthquake-induced landslides in this study showed good agreement with the historical distribution of earthquake-induced landslides. This indicates that the assessment properly reflects the macroscopic rules for the development of earthquake-induced landslides in the study area, and can provide a reference framework for the management of the risk of earthquake-induced landslides and land planning. 相似文献
9.
岩溶洞穴沉积物的地震记录浅析 总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0
洞穴沉积物不仅具有旅游开发价值,而且蕴含了丰富的古气候环境信息,同时也是地震信息的存储器,是研究地震遗迹的良好材料。近10多年,在西南地区开展洞穴资源调研、古气候环境研究期间,观察到一些洞穴沉积物的特殊坍塌现象,以及2008年5月12日四川汶川8级地震中岩溶洞穴沉积物发生破裂、坍塌等现象,认为它们与地震密切相关。本文利用洞穴沉积物中保存或记录的新、老地震印迹、铀系测年数据等,来恢复史前的地震事件和史载资料未记录的地震事件,并对地震事件发生的时间、强度进行对比等。洞穴沉积物中记录的地震印迹可为研究地震历史提供对比证据,填补历史丢失的地震记录, 并能对未来地震的监测以及预报提供一个新的视角。 相似文献
10.
论地震数值预报——关于我国地震预报研究发展战略的思考 总被引：7，自引：0，他引：7
随着中国工业化和社会现代化进程的加快 ,中国城市化进程必将进一步加速。如何减轻地震灾害的问题正变得日益严峻。尽管地震预测是一个举世公认的国际性科学难题 ,但在强化各种减轻地震灾害措施的同时 ,仍须大力推进地震预测研究。为此 ,需要打破长期徘徊在以地震前兆异常监测为基础的经验性预测局面 ,把注意力尽快转向研究以动力学为基础的数值预报。以GPS为代表的空间对地观测技术 ,岩石圈巨型高分辨率宽频带流动地震台阵观测技术以及数值模拟技术已经为地震数值预报研究提供了前所未有的技术基础。以地震数值预报为目标的GPS阵列地壳形变连续观测 ,高分辨率地壳上地幔结构探测 ,地壳动力学 ,地震孕育和破裂过程的理论、模拟试验和实际观测 ,数据同化和计算软件的开发应成为今后研究的重点。现在的问题是 ,需要积极借助数值天气预报的经验 ,强化多学科 ,多部门的组织协调 ,尽早在有条件的地区开展地震动力学数值预报的科学试验。地震数值预报研究必将极大地促进中国地震科学基础研究和地震预报的进一步发展。 相似文献
11.
从地震灾害防御指挥信息系统中的WebGIS技术研究入手,分析了在地震灾害防御指挥信息系统中采用WebGIS技术对地震灾害防御指挥带来的优势,同时探讨了地震信息采集、信息处理、系统集成发布以及今后对地震灾害评估等一系列过程。研究了基于WebGIS技术建立地震应急防御指挥系统的理论实现过程和方法。通过对地震灾害这一特殊情况的研究,分析研究了基于WebGIS集成应用技术在地震灾害防御指挥信息系统中的优点,对处理其他灾害防御指挥信息系统也提出了一种全新的解决途径。 相似文献
12.
The frequency–magnitude distributions of earthquakes are used in this study to estimate the earthquake hazard parameters for individual earthquake source zones within the Mainland Southeast Asia. For this purpose, 13 earthquake source zones are newly defined based on the most recent geological, tectonic, and seismicity data. A homogeneous and complete seismicity database covering the period from 1964 to 2010 is prepared for this region and then used for the estimation of the constants, a and b, of the frequency–magnitude distributions. These constants are then applied to evaluate the most probable largest magnitude, the mean return period, and the probability of earthquake of different magnitudes in different time spans. The results clearly show that zones A, B, and E have the high probability for the earthquake occurrence comparing with the other seismic zones. All seismic source zones have 100 % probability that the earthquake with magnitude ≤6.0 generates in the next 25 years. For the Sagaing Fault Zone (zones C), the next Mw 7.2–7.5 earthquake may generate in this zone within the next two decades and should be aware of the prospective Mw 8.0 earthquake. Meanwhile, in Sumatra-Andaman Interplate (zone A), an earthquake with a magnitude of Mw 9.0 can possibly occur in every 50 years. Since an earthquake of magnitude Mw 9.0 was recorded in this region in 2004, there is a possibility of another Mw 9.0 earthquake within the next 50 years. 相似文献
13.
冶勒沥青混凝土心墙堆石坝最大坝高为124.5 m,坝址区地震烈度高,地质条件复杂,两岸坝基条件严重不对称。大坝上布设了9台强震仪组成的强震监测台阵,曾获得2008年汶川地震和攀枝花地震的大坝强震监测记录。2013年4月20日四川省雅安市芦山县发生里氏7.0级地震,冶勒大坝距震中约212.5 km,坝址区震感较为强烈,强震监测台阵获得了此次地震较为完整的有效记录。对芦山地震主震记录进行时域分析和频谱分析,总结冶勒大坝在芦山地震中的动力反应规律,并与汶川地震时坝体动力反应进行对比分析。研究表明,芦山地震主震时冶勒大坝最大加速度记录为47.043 cm/s2,最长持续时间为76.98 s,坝顶动力放大效应明显;芦山和汶川地震时大坝动力反应规律的差异与地震波频谱特性及大坝自振特性等密切相关。总体而言,冶勒大坝在震后运行安全稳定,芦山地震未对冶勒大坝造成明显不利影响。 相似文献
14.
Iware Matsuda Dr. 《GeoJournal》1996,38(3):349-353
Although Tokyo City has frequently suffered from earthquake disasters, more than 70 years have passed since the last catastrophe of 1923. Because Tokyo has a greater probability now than ever of being hit by another major earthquake, the Tokyo Metropolitan Government has carried out two surveys for taking measures to cope with it; earthquake vulnerability assessment and earthquake damage prediction. The former assesses earthquake vulnerability regionally and is used for disaster-proof city planning. Damage due to the expected earthquake is quantitatively estimated in the latter. The results are used for making a regional disaster prevention plan in an emergency. Both physical and human geographers participate in these interdisciplinary surveys effectively. 相似文献
15.
地震作用下边坡的动态响应规律研究 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
以印度Koyna地震为输入动荷载,利用ABAQUS软件建立了一个均质土坡动力数值分析模型。在此基础上,分析了该地震作用下边坡的动力响应规律。结果表明,边坡对地震加速度存在放大作用,坡顶水平向峰值加速度为1.0 m/s2,约为输入地震峰值加速度的3倍;坡顶竖向峰值加速度为0.8 m/s2,约为输入地震峰值加速度的3.2倍;在当土体发生破损以后坡体位移随地震持时的增加而增大,存在变形累积效应。研究结果有助于进一步揭示边坡在地震作用下的失稳机制。 相似文献
16.
在对四川省汶川县地震序列的动态跟踪与对甘肃省震情的动态判定过程中,笔者成功地把握了甘肃震情、一定程度上把握了汶川地震序列的动态发展变化并对5月18日发生在四川省江油市的6.0级地震作出了成功预测。此次成功的地震预测实践为甘肃省的抗震救灾工作提供了正确的科学依据,为减轻地震灾害和稳定被地震扰乱的社会秩序发挥了重要作用,同时也在中国地震预报的历史上写下了新的篇章。从中笔者更加深刻地感悟到,地震预报虽然是一个十分复杂、尚未被攻克的世界性难题,但对于一个特定的地区,如果预报思路和方法得当,要实现一次乃至数次成功的预报是可能的。这对地球科学家们如何认识地震预报问题有一定的意义。 相似文献
17.
Landslide initiation due to earthquake is one of the most prevalent seismic hazard, which claims hundreds of lives in the Himalayan mountainous terrains of India. Number of landslides, maximum distance from the epicentre and total landslide area/volume are correlatable with earthquake magnitudes. Application of globally accepted earthquake triggered landslide parameter models do not match well with published data for the Himalayan earthquake triggered landslides. Considering the incompleteness of landslide inventories for most of the Himalayan earthquakes, development of regression equations show that in the Himalayan environment, landslide may trigger even with imperciptable earthquakes affecting longer distances having earthquake magnitude of more than 8 M with potential to affect more areas than the global expectations. 相似文献
18.
武汉地区地震效应影响研究 总被引：3，自引：3，他引：3
虽然武汉市地震影响及地震危险性的水平较低 ,强震也不是武汉市工程地质环境的主要问题 ,但在城市生命线工程和高层超高层建筑方面必须考虑单体抗震设防。而且 ,随着武汉市城市建设的不断发展 ,地震效应影响逐渐成为武汉市工程地质环境评价的一个重要因子。文章在分析了武汉地区地震动衰减规律 ,进行了地震危险性评价 ,深入研究了各土层动力参数性质的基础上 ,指出武汉地区地震地面破坏主要存在砂土液化和软土震陷两种型式及各自可能的空间分布. 相似文献
19.
李四光教授关于地震地质工作中地震预报方面的重要观点和思想主要包括:地应力变化与地震密切相关;地震活动带中也存在相对安全的地区(“安全岛”理论);地震地质调查是地震预报的基础;地震是可以预测的,地应力的变化过程是地震预报的关键.他的“安全岛”理论及地震预报思想至今仍有着十分重要的理论意义和现实意义. 相似文献
20.
对常德太阳山断裂及其与地震关系的认识 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
太阳山断裂包括太阳出东侧断裂和太阳山西侧断裂。实际上,它们是一个北北东向的断裂带,具有规模大、长期活动的特点,与地震关系十分密切。1631年常德6.5级大地震,即发生在该断裂带上。该断裂带具备孕育中强震的地质构造条件,有再度发生中强震的可能性,建议加强地震监测。 相似文献