共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 31 毫秒
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针对经典泥石流危险度评价中以灰色关联度作为次要危险因子筛选依据的不足,采用复相关系数作为泥石流次要危险因子筛选的依据,从而建立了泥石流危险度评价的主要危险因子与次要危险因子组合的多因子体系。在此基础上,针对次要危险与主要危险因子之间存在显著相关性,同时为了体现次要危险因子对泥石流危险度的贡献作用,采用独立信息数据波动赋权法计算泥石流次要危险因子的权重,建立了泥石流危险度评价的计算公式。以此计算东川市12条泥石流沟的危险度评价结果,计算结果比经典方法更符合次要因子的补充地位,从而证明了该方法的合理性。 相似文献
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基于等级相关的泥石流危险因子筛选与危险度评价 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
针对泥石流危险因子之间的单调性差异和主次危险因子之间的非线性关系,提出了结合散点图和Spearman等级相关评价泥石流主次危险因子相关性的方法,以散点图作为危险因子初步筛选的依据,以Spearman等级相关系数作为危险因子最终筛选和权重分配的依据。以云南省37条泥石流沟的基础数据为例,建立了泥石流危险度综合评价模型,以此计算东川市12条泥石流沟的危险度评价结果,计算结果表明,新方法比经典方法更能体现物源条件与动力条件对泥石流危险性的贡献,从而证明了新方法的合理性。 相似文献
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基于证据权法的泥石流危险度区划 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
针对泥石流危险度区划方法存在不足的问题,根据泥石流形成的要素提取危险度评价因子,运用证据权法客观地筛选出评价因子和确定危险度的权重,进而优选出具有代表性的评价因子,避免了主观赋权和筛选因子的随意性;根据不同评价因子权重值的叠加来确定某一单元泥石流危险度发育程度的概率。以吉林省磐石市泥石流危险度区划为例进行验证,结果表明：中度和低度危险区内有泥石流点163个,囊括了75.81%的泥石流灾害点,符合磐石市泥石流危险度总体不高、局部地区危险度较大的实际情况。 相似文献
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区域滑坡风险综合评估应该包括三方面要素,即:滑坡区域风险分布滑坡风险概率、滑坡风险损失。作者在滑坡风险区划的基础上,查明风险分布的状况,评估风险影响的地区范围。根据滑坡的诱发因素,分析发育的滑坡特点,评估滑坡发生的概率。采用受灾面积占评估区域的损失率统计,评估可能受灾损失的规模。将三要素评估迭加,建立了滑坡风险综合评估模型。并将此模型在四川省攀枝花市米易县进行了示范研究,最后得到米易县全县滑坡风险中等偏低的结论,这与研究区的实际情况基本一致,取得了较好的应用效果。 相似文献
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Huang Bolin Chen Lide Peng Xuanming Liu Guanning Chen Xiaoting Dong Haogang Lei Tianci 《Landslides》2010,7(1):1-11
In 2007 and 2008, six big damaging rockfalls occurred at four sites in Wu Gorge, the second gorge of the Three Gorges, China.
Detailed surveys and aerial-photographic interpretation identified 104 potentially dangerous rock masses. This paper reviews
previous rock-mass risk ratings, examines dangerous rock-mass structure and presents a new assessment system for rockfall
risk (ASRFR) in the Wu Gorge area. The ASRFR considers 15 factors: seven factors for hazard and eight factors for consequence.
Relative importance weights for these factors are ascertained using an analytic hierarchy process. Using an equation to calculate
the risk, the 104 dangerous rock masses were divided into three risk groups: high risk (33 sites), medium risk (33 sites)
and low risk (38 sites). The ASRFR analysis can be used to divide the shipping route through the Wu Gorge into seven courses
each of one of three classes: safe-route regions, yellow-alarm regions and red-alarm regions. The system provides geological
information and a rockfall-risk management tool for local government and the shipment-route department. 相似文献
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刘传正 《水文地质工程地质》2017,(4):1-7
基于多年学术研究与实地“原型观测”,提出了地质灾害风险识别或早期识别的六个因素,包括地质体边界形态（a）、成分结构（b）、初始状态（c）、激发条件（d）、环境因素（e）和成灾条件（f）及其时间变化（t）,简称“六要素识别法”,可表示为R=f（a,b,c,d,e,f;t）。这些因素的变化决定着致灾体与承灾体遭遇的概率,从而为地质灾害风险评价指明方向。通过实际案例论证了典型因素变化导致的地质灾害,在思想上突破了以往过度关注于从已发生灾害事件推断未来风险的局限,推动从地质环境因素变化孕育地质灾害风险的研判,更有针对性地服务于防灾减灾管理决策。 相似文献
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基于边坡分级系统的滑坡风险评价,适用于公路或铁路沿线或一定面积范围内多个滑坡的风险评价和对比,为滑坡防治优先排序提供依据,国内目前使用该方法的还较少。黄土滑塌所处的地质环境条件具有共性,而制约滑塌发生的主导因素又有其个体差异性,因此评分分级法不失为一个评价黄土滑塌灾害风险的好办法。本文选取了陕西省延安市东北部一个约3.2km2的黄土沟壑区为研究对象,参考国外铁路公路沿线的岩崩分级系统及香港土质边坡分级系统,结合黄土地区的实际情况,在前期已有的评价指标和权重研究的基础上,使用水文法划分评价单元,对危险性的22个评价指标划分4档评分标准,对危害性的15个评价指标划分5档评分标准,综合危险性和危害性评定结果,设定风险分级矩阵判定表,由此设计了黄土滑塌灾害风险评分系统。运用该系统完成了37个黄土斜坡单元的风险评分和分级,评价结果表明,各单元黄土滑塌灾害风险高、中、低、很低的分布并无明显规律,仅与局地的地质条件和承灾体分布有关; 风险分级呈现"中间高两头低"的现象,即"风险高"和"风险很低"的面积较少(占27%),而处于中间状态的"风险低"和"风险中"的面积较多(占73%)。该分级系统适用于黄土滑塌类地质灾害的风险半定量评价。 相似文献
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我国地质灾害具有点多面广的分布特点,而地质灾害风险管控人力和能力有限,因此需要开展地质灾害风险排序工作,筛选出优先管控的地质灾害隐患点,确保地质灾害风险管控对策实施的针对性和高效性。地质灾害风险排序的实质是运用定量化风险评价计算出每处隐患点的风险值,然后根据风险值开展排序工作。目前定量化风险评价模型多用于单个地质灾害点风险评价,并未应用于大范围地质灾害风险排序工作,且模型较为复杂,推广应用较难。在分析崩塌、滑坡地质灾害与其环境因素间的响应关系及规律的基础上,提取崩塌、滑坡地质灾害的主控环境因子与诱发因子,联合人口、物质、资源等易损性因子建立地质灾害风险评价指标体系;基于岩石工程系统相互作用矩阵与专家打分法确定各级地质灾害风险评价指标因子权重,构建地质灾害风险评分体系;并根据风险评价定义,提出了能够快速定量化的简易地质灾害风险计算模型。以贵州省98处地质灾害隐患点为例,开展模型应用验证,风险排序结果与灾害管理机构主观认识的实际风险一致,验证了本模型的合理性与有效性,提高了地质灾害风险管控能力与效率。 相似文献
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农业区非点源污染潜在危险性评价——以于桥水库流域磷流失为例 总被引：32，自引：0，他引：32
在农业非点源污染研究中,确定农业非点源污染的关键源区或危险区域是开展有针对性研究和控制农业非点源污染的首要问题之一.本文在地理信息系统的支持下,综合考虑了影响于桥水库流域农业非点源磷流失的源因子和迁移因子,通过建立评价指标体系,计算磷污染危险性指数,对农业非点源磷流失危险性进行定量化评价,识别具有极高危险性或较高危险性的区域为磷流失的关键源区,将其作为控制和管理的优先区域和重点区域.结果表明:流域中磷流失危险性极高和较高的区域即关键源区不到全流域面积的6.0%,危险性中等的地区占到整个流域面积的20.52%;具有高和中等危险性的地区主要分布在流域河流两岸,且具有极高或较高的土壤有效磷含量或化肥磷施用量或高的土壤侵蚀强度,大部分为流域中部丘陵平原区的农田,少部分为地形较陡的山区农田. 相似文献
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Risk identification on hydropower project using the IAHP and extension of TOPSIS methods under interval-valued fuzzy environment 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Risk identification on hydropower project, the first step of risk management process, is an extremely complex issue and has a significant impact on the efficiency of the following risk assessment and control. On the other hand, finding out some more possible risk factors among many risk ones is a multi-criteria decision making problem. This paper develops an evaluation model based on the interval analytic hierarchy process (IAHP) and extension of technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS), to identify exactly the more possible risk factors under a complex and fuzzy environment. In this paper, the IAHP is used to analyze the structure of risk identification problems in hydropower project and to determine weights of the criteria and decision makers, and extension of TOPSIS method with interval data is used to obtain final ranking of potential risk factors in hydropower project. Risk identification on an earth dam is conducted to illustrate the utilization of the model proposed in this paper. The application could be interpreted as demonstrating the effectiveness and feasibility of the proposed model. 相似文献
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The risk analysis on karst groundwater pollution is a research hotspot in current international hydrogeological field as well as the premise of preventing and controlling groundwater pollution. According to the characteristics of groundwater pollution in the typical study area, the study selected main-control factors of risk evaluation on karst groundwater pollution in mountainous areas at first. Based on this, the research determines the method for quantifying the factors and established a risk evaluation index system for karst groundwater pollution. To overcome drawbacks of the method for determining weights of factors in traditional evaluation method, the study determines the structure of the artificial neural network model by combining the selected evaluation factors. And also, the weight coefficients of evaluation factors on each layer are calculated. On this basis, the model for evaluating the risk of karst groundwater pollution is established. Moreover, the risk zoning evaluation map of groundwater pollution in the typical study area is prepared after conducting the weighted stacking of various sub-layers using the geographic information system. The method applied in the study can comprehensively and objectively reflect that the groundwater pollution is controlled by multiple factors and reveal the nonlinear characteristic of the pollution process. Additionally, the evaluation result is institutive and visible, which can provide a certain basis and reference for relevant researches. 相似文献
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在滑坡的易发性、危险性和风险评价中,评价指标的选取和定量化是非常关键的。目前国内外采取的主要方法是利用GIS工具提取地形、岩性、距河流或断层带的距离、土地类型、植被、降雨、河流密度等因子进行分析和计算。这些指标在滑坡易发性和危险性区划中得到了广泛应用并取得了丰硕的成果,但也有一些局限性,具体表现在3个方面:一是不能针对不同的滑坡类型提供不同的评价指标体系;二是提取的这些因子中在区域上有些是共性因子,如岩性、降雨等;三是尚未建立一个完整的风险评价指标体系。本次研究专门针对陕西北部地区广泛发育的一种称之为"黄土崩塌"的滑坡类型,运用国际上流行的滑坡风险管理理论,确定其风险评价总体指标体系;基于大量野外调查数据的统计规律,分析了黄土崩塌危险性的主要来源和影响危害性的主要因素,从失稳可能性评价指标、崩塌强度评价指标、承灾体评价指标和易损性评价指标4个方面共确定了16大类36个评价指标。该指标体系的构建可为进一步的陕北黄土地区斜坡单元崩塌灾害风险评价提供基础。 相似文献
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基于多元回归分析的铬污染地下水风险评价方法 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
土-水分配系数（Kd）是表征重金属污染物在土壤包气带中迁移能力的重要参数,受污染物质量浓度、pH值、有机质质量分数、铁铝氧化物质量分数等多种因素影响。本文通过实验研究了分配系数与各种影响因素之间的关系,基于多元回归分析方法得到了分配系数与影响因素的关系方程;并以分配系数、泄漏量、土壤孔隙度、初始含水率为风险因子建立了地下水污染风险评价方法。以某工厂铬废液的泄露为案例,采用构建的方法进行地下水污染风险评价。结果表明：该处地下水被污染的风险等级为中等。地下水污染风险评价方法的建立为重金属污染地下水的监测管理提供了一种有效方法。 相似文献
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The challenge of making the transition to a sustainable energy regime is not limited to engineering; it has important social and political dimensions. Therefore, implementation of new technologies, such as carbon capture and storage (CCS), requires not only economic and technical capacities but also an understanding of social factors. These factors include experts’ views and risk perceptions. Understanding them will contribute to the risk governance of CCS by demonstrating who is concerned about what and why with respect to CCS and how risk perception and stakeholders’ concerns vary in different countries. This research is based on analysis and mapping of data collected from case studies of three countries: Germany, Norway and Finland. Our analysis shows that in countries where opposition to CCS is the strongest, like Germany, risk perceptions can be driven by such factors such as the lack of trust and doubts about the need of the project. At the same time as in countries with moderate opposition, such as Norway or Finland, risk perceptions are more connected with the risk for investment. We also conclude that the strongest polarization in risk perceptions is among NGOs in different countries, followed by scientists. The positions of private sector stakeholders and government are more homogenous. Such large variation in risk perceptions of experts could be influenced by several factors, including cultural orientation, attitudes and views of stakeholders, and the social, political and technical settings for deployment of technology in each country. 相似文献
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简单实用的隧道大变形风险评估方法对灾害防治和工程应用有重要价值。本文应用指标打分法建立了高地应力隧道施工期大变形动态风险评估方法。应用指标体系打分法建立了包括地质因素、设计因素和施工因素3项一级指标和岩石强度、围岩完整性等18项二级指标的风险评估指标体系,经统计分析确定各指标影响权重。通过现场对各指标进行打分,对照大变形风险可能性等级标准,确定风险可能性等级;通过专家调查对直接经济损失、工期延误进行估计,确定严重程度等级;综合考虑风险发生可能性及损失严重程度,应用风险矩阵法得到风险等级。将所建立的风险评估方法应用于在建汶马高速公路米亚罗3号隧道,评估结果与实际开挖结果一致,验证了此套方法的有效性与实用性。该风险评估方法可为隧道施工期大变形的预防和控制提供科学依据。 相似文献
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An interdisciplinary approach is necessary for flood risk assessment. Questions are often raised about which factors should
be considered important in assessing the flood risk in an area and how to quantify these factors. This article defines and
quantitatively evaluates the flood risk factors that would affect the Day River Flood Diversion Area in the context of integrated
flood management in the Red River Delta, Vietnam. Expert analysis, in conjunction with field survey and Analytical Hierarchy
Process (AHP), is applied to define and quantify parameters (indicators, subcomponents, and components) that contribute to
flood risk. Flood duration is found to be the most prominent indicator in determining flood hazard. Residential buildings,
population, and pollution are other fairly significant indicators contributing to flood vulnerability from the economic, social,
and environmental perspectives, respectively. The study results will be useful in developing comprehensive flood risk maps
for policy-makers and responsible authorities. Besides, local residents will also be able to implement suitable measures for
reducing flood risk in the study area. 相似文献