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1.
In this paper, analytical methods, artificial neural network (ANN) and multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) techniques were utilised to estimate the discharge capacity of compound open channels (COC). To this end, related datasets were collected from literature. The results showed that the divided channel method with a coefficient of determination (R 2) value of 0.76 and root mean square error (RMSE) value of 0.162 has the best performance, among the various analytical methods tested. The performance of applied soft computing models with R 2=0.97 and RMSE = 0.03 was found to be more accurate than analytical approaches. Comparison of MARS with the ANN model, in terms of developed discrepancy ratio (DDR) index, showed that the accuracy of MARS model was better than that of MLP model. Reviewing the structure of the derived MARS model showed that the longitudinal slope of the channel (S), relative flow depth (H r ) and relative area (A r ) have a high impact on modelling and forecasting the discharge capacity of COCs.  相似文献   

2.
The ecological and biological attributes of trees stand as well as the water cycle in forests are substantially related to variations of water storage capacity in forest ecosystems. This study aimed to figure out a protocol for monitoring the water storage capacity variations in the Hyrcanian mixed-beech stands after harvesting and extracting trees form the forest. A total of 174 trees were felled and weighed, and destructive sampling following lines of exploitation was carried out for measuring the water content in aboveground biomass of trees. Curve estimation regression analyses including the tree biophysical variables (breast height diameter DBH, total height H, basic wood density \(\rho\)) were used for examining the prediction accuracy. Nonlinear models were log-transformed, and systematic bias was corrected by correction factor depending on standard error of estimate when back-transforming to the originally dependent value. The findings showed that the power-law models were the best functional form for predicting the dependent variables. Using only DBH in the simple power model explained 76% of total variance (Adj.R 2 = 0.76) with a low Akaike information criterion (AIC) and normalized root-mean-square error RMSE%, indicating a high accuracy of prediction (\({\text{AIC}} \approx - 238\); RMSE% = 11.7). Adding H and \(\rho\) in the linear log-transformed power models with different interaction terms increased the certainty of prediction with the highest accuracy (\({\text{Adj}}.R^{2} = 0.86,\;{\text{AIC}} = - 329,\;{\text{RMSE}}\% = 9\)). Considering diverse conditions for natural forest sites, the optimum models including the biophysical variables may have associated parameters in the other forests having different stand types and compositions.  相似文献   

3.
The improvement in the capabilities of Landsat-8 imagery to retrieve bathymetric information in shallow coastal waters was examined. Landsat-8 images have an additional band named coastal/aerosol, Band 1: 435–451 nm in comparison with former generation of Landsat imagery. The selected Landsat-8 operational land image (OLI) was of Chabahar Bay, located in the southern part of Iran (acquired on February 22, 2014 in calm weather and relatively low turbidity). Accurate and high resolution bathymetric data from the study area, produced by field surveys using a single beam echo-sounder, were selected for calibrating the models and validating the results. Three methods, including traditional linear and ratio transform techniques, as well as a novel proposed integrated method, were used to determine depth values. All possible combinations of the three bands [coastal/aerosol (CB), blue (B), and green (G)] have been considered (11 options) using the traditional linear and ratio transform techniques, together with five model options for the integrated method. The accuracy of each model was assessed by comparing the determined bathymetric information with field measured values. The standard error of the estimates, correlation coefficients (R 2 ) for both calibration and validation points, and root mean square errors (RMSE) were calculated for all cases. When compared with the ratio transform method, the method employing linear transformation with a combination of CB, B, and G bands yielded more accurate results (standard error = 1.712 m, R 2 calibration = 0.594, R 2 validation = 0.551, and RMSE =1.80 m). Adding the CB band to the ratio transform methodology also dramatically increased the accuracy of the estimated depths, whereas this increment was not statistically significant when using the linear transform methodology. The integrated transform method in form of Depth = b 0  + b 1 X CB  + b 2 X B  + b 5 ln(R CB )/ln(R G ) + b 6 ln(R B )/ln(R G ) yielded the highest accuracy (standard error = 1.634 m, R 2 calibration = 0.634, R 2 validation = 0.595, and RMSE = 1.71 m), where R i (i = CB, B, or G) refers to atmospherically corrected reflectance values in the i th band [X i  = ln(R i -R deep water)].  相似文献   

4.
Soil erodibility is one of the most important factors used in spatial soil erosion risk assessment. Soil information derived from soil map is used to generate soil erodibility factor map. Soil maps are not available at appropriate scale. In general, soil maps at small scale are used in deriving soil erodibility map that largely generalized spatial variability and it largely ignores the spatial variability since soil map units are discrete polygons. The present study was attempted to generate soil erodibilty map using terrain indices derived from DTM and surface soil sample data. Soil variability in the hilly landscape is largely controlled by topography represented by DTM. The CartoDEM (30 m) was used to derive terrain indices such as terrain wetness index (TWI), stream power index (SPI), sediment transport index (STI) and slope parameters. A total of 95 surface soil samples were collected to compute soil erodibility factor (K) values. The K values ranged from 0.23 to 0.81 t ha?1R?1 in the watershed. Correlation analysis among K-factor and terrain parameters showed highest correlation of soil erodibilty with TWI (r 2= 0.561) followed by slope (r 2= 0.33). A multiple linear regression model was developed to derive soil erodibilty using terrain parameters. A set of 20 soil sample points were used to assess the accuracy of the model. The coefficient of determination (r 2) and RMSE were computed to be 0.76 and 0.07 t ha?1R?1 respectively. The proposed methodology is quite useful in generating soil erodibilty factor map using digital elevation model (DEM) for any hilly terrain areas. The equation/model need to be established for the particular hilly terrain under the study. The developed model was used to generate spatial soil erodibility factor (K) map of the watershed in the lower Himalayan range.  相似文献   

5.
Jizan is one of the Saudi Arabian coastal cities endowed with diverse natural settings, which includes Ash Shuqayq in the north, Turfah in the centre and Jizan in the South. This work analysed specific environmental characteristics, such as spits, sabkhas and wadis. Assessments used Landsat imagery to examine coastal change between 1973 and 2011. The cumulative temporal change identified regression trends given by coefficients of determination that explained a significant percentage of data variation for Jizan (R 2 = 69%) and Turfah (R 2 = 72%), while Ash Shuqayq was insignificant (R 2 = 14%). Inter-survey results predicted future change, although trends were not significant, i.e. Jizan (R 2 = 22%), Turfah (R 2 = 14%) and Ash Shuqayq (R 2 = 3 and 61% with outlying value removed). Aerial photos showed regional coastal changes, which included a maximum accretion of 36.4 m and maximum erosion of 12.9 m. These are scientifically effective techniques to monitor regional coastal change, i.e. erosion and accretion and identified rates of 0.59, 1.80 and 3.53 myr?1 for Ash Shuqayq, Turfah and Jizan. Changes were linked to infrastructure developments, e.g. tourism, port development and natural causes, e.g. spit formations and wadi outfalls.  相似文献   

6.
Forecasting reservoir inflow is one of the most important components of water resources and hydroelectric systems operation management. Seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) models have been frequently used for predicting river flow. SARIMA models are linear and do not consider the random component of statistical data. To overcome this shortcoming, monthly inflow is predicted in this study based on a combination of seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) and gene expression programming (GEP) models, which is a new hybrid method (SARIMA–GEP). To this end, a four-step process is employed. First, the monthly inflow datasets are pre-processed. Second, the datasets are modelled linearly with SARIMA and in the third stage, the non-linearity of residual series caused by linear modelling is evaluated. After confirming the non-linearity, the residuals are modelled in the fourth step using a gene expression programming (GEP) method. The proposed hybrid model is employed to predict the monthly inflow to the Jamishan Dam in west Iran. Thirty years’ worth of site measurements of monthly reservoir dam inflow with extreme seasonal variations are used. The results of this hybrid model (SARIMA–GEP) are compared with SARIMA, GEP, artificial neural network (ANN) and SARIMA–ANN models. The results indicate that the SARIMA–GEP model (R 2=78.8, VAF =78.8, RMSE =0.89, MAPE =43.4, CRM =0.053) outperforms SARIMA and GEP and SARIMA–ANN (R 2=68.3, VAF =66.4, RMSE =1.12, MAPE =56.6, CRM =0.032) displays better performance than the SARIMA and ANN models. A comparison of the two hybrid models indicates the superiority of SARIMA–GEP over the SARIMA–ANN model.  相似文献   

7.
One of the most important aims of blasting in open pit mines is to reach desirable size of fragmentation. Prediction of fragmentation has great importance in an attempt to prevent economic drawbacks. In this study, blasting data from Meydook mine were used to study the effect of different parameters on fragmentation; 30 blast cycles performed in Meydook mine were selected to predict fragmentation where six more blast cycles are used to validate the results of developed models. In this research, mutual information (MI) method was employed to predict fragmentation. Ten parameters were considered as primary ones in the model. For the sake of comparison, Kuz-Ram empirical model and statistical modeling were also used. Coefficient of determination (R 2), root mean square error (RMSE), and mean absolute error (MAE) were then used to compare the models. Results show that MI model with values of R 2, RMSE, and MAE equals 0.81, 10.71, and 9.02, respectively, is found to have more accuracy with better performance comparing to Kuz-Ram and statistical models.  相似文献   

8.
The results of infrared observations of the two Be stars X Per and V725 Tau, which are the optical components of X-ray binary systems, obtained in 1994–2016 are presented. The observations cover Be-star phases as well as shell phases. The data analysis shows that the radiation observed from the binaries at 1.25, 3.5, and 5 μm can be explained as the combined radiation from the optical components and variable sources (shells/disks) that emit as blackbodies (BBs). Emission from a source with the color temperature T c ~1000?1500 K was detected for X Per at λ ≥ 3.5 μm. The highest IR-brightness variation amplitudes for X Per were 0.9?1.2 m (JHK magnitudes) and ~1.45 m (LM magnitudes); for V725 Tau, they were 1.1?1.4 m and ~1.7 m (L magnitudes). The parameters of the optical components and interstellar extinction during the Be phases were estimated: the color excesswasE(B?V) = 0.65±0.08 m and 0.77 ± 0.03 m for X Per and V725 Tau, respectively. Light from the variable sources (disks/shells) was distinguished and their color temperatures, radii, and luminosities estimated for different observation epochs in a BB model. The variations of the binaries’ IR brightness and colors are shown to be due to changing parameters of the variable sources. The mean color temperature of the cool source (disk/shell) and the mean radius and mean luminosity of X Per are 9500± 2630 K, (35 ± 10) R⊙, and (9100± 540) L⊙. For V725 Tau, these parameters are 6200 ± 940 K, (27 ± 6) R⊙, and (980 ± 420) L⊙. The 1.25–5 μm radiation from X Per at different epochs can be represented as a sum of contributions from at least three sources: the optical component and two objects emitting as BBs. To reproduce the 1.25–3.5 μm radiation from V725 Tau, two components are sufficient: the optical component and a single variable BB object. For both binary systems, orbital variations of the IR brightness can be noted near the Be-star phase. The amplitudes of the J-band variations of X Per and V725 Tau are about 0.3 m and 0.1 m , respectively.  相似文献   

9.
Pyroaurite [Mg6Fe23+ (OH)16][(CO3)(H2O)] from the Kovdor Pluton on the Kola Peninsula, Russia, and the Långban deposit in Filipstad, Värmland, Sweden were studied with single crystal and powder X-ray diffraction, an electron microprobe, and Raman spectroscopy. Both samples are rhombohedral, space group R3?m, a = 3.126(3), c = 23.52(2) Å (Kovdor), and a = 3.1007(9), c = 23.34(1) (Långban). The powder XRD revealed only the 3R polytype. The ratio of di- and trivalent cations M2+: M3+ was determined as ~3.1–3.2 (Kovdor) and ~3.0 (Långban). The Raman spectroscopy of the Kovdor sample verified hydroxyl groups and/or water molecules in the mineral (absorption bands in the region of 3600–3500 cm–1) and carbonate groups (absorption bands in the region of 1346–1058 cm–1). Based on the data obtained, the studied samples should be identified as pyroaurite-3R (hydrotalcite group).  相似文献   

10.
Dynamic and vigorous top soil is the source for healthy flora, fauna, and humans, and soil organic matters are the underpinning for healthy and productive soils. Organic components in the soil play significant role in stimulating soil productivity processes and vegetation development. This article deals with the scientific demand for estimating soil organic carbon (SOC) in forest using geospatial techniques. We assessed distribution of SOC using field and satellite data in Sariska Tiger Reserve located in the Aravalli Hill Range, India. This study utilized the visible and near-infrared reflectance data of Sentinel-2A satellite. Three predictor variables namely Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, Soil Adjusted Vegetation Index, and Renormalized Difference Vegetation Index were derived to examine the relationship between soil and SOC and to identify the biophysical characteristic of soil. Relationship between SOC (ground and predicted) and leaf area index (LAI) measured through satellite data was examined through regression analysis. Coefficient of correlation (R 2) was found to be 0.95 (p value < 0.05) for predicted SOC and satellite measured LAI. Thus, LAI can effectively be used for extracting SOC using remote sensing data. Soil organic carbon stock map generated through Kriging model for Landsat 8 OLI data demonstrated variation in spatial SOC stocks distribution. The model with 89% accuracy has proved to be an effective tool for predicting spatial distribution of SOC stocks in the study area. Thus, optical remote sensing data have immense potential for predicting SOC at larger scale.  相似文献   

11.
The Junipers phoenicea, which covers 70 % of the Jabal Al Akhdar (Green Mountain) in Cyrene on the northeast coast of Libya, has deteriorated over large scales. To deal with this problem, the images of the Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) and Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) in conjunction with the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) digital elevation model (DEM) were used to map factors controlling the J. phoenicea mortality using a set of automated algorithms and tools. These factors include altitude, slope, aspect, curvature, drainage pattern, seawater intrusion, and land cover. As a first step, changes of J. phoenicea and land cover during the period from the year 2000 to 2015 were mapped. The results showed a sharp decline in J. phoenicea covering an area of 396 km2 (22 %) of the total area. The result also showed that areas at a lower elevation with steep slope and faced to the south and southeast directions have a higher probability of J. phoenicea distribution. The spatial analysis showed a positive correlation between wetness and the intensity of J. phoenicea mortality. The results also show that altitude and slope have the most influencing power on the J. phoenicea morality. This study is of great help for decision makers and agriculture engineers and permits a better understanding of ecological and biomass changes in the Jabal Al Akhdar, Libya, over a regional scale.  相似文献   

12.
Soil saturated hydraulic conductivity (Ks) is considered as soil basic hydraulic property, and its precision estimation is a key element in modeling water flow and solute transport processes both in the saturated and vadose zones. Although some predictive methods (e.g., pedotransfer functions, PTFs) have been proposed to indirectly predict Ks, the accuracy of these methods still needs to be improved. In this study, some easily available soil properties (e.g., particle size distribution, organic carbon, calcium carbonate content, electrical conductivity, and soil bulk density) are employed as input variables to predict Ks using a fuzzy inference system (FIS) trained by two different optimization techniques: particle swarm optimization (PSO) and genetic algorithm (GA). To verify the derived FIS, 113 soil samples were taken, and their required physical properties were measured (113 sample points?×?7 factors?=?791 input data). The initial FIS is compared with two methods: FIS trained by PSO (PSO-FIS) and FIS trained by GA (GA-FIS). Based on experimental results, all three methods are compared according to some evaluation criteria including correlation coefficient (r), modeling efficiency (EF), coefficient of determination (CD), root mean square error (RMSE), and maximum error (ME) statistics. The results showed that the PSO-FIS model achieved a higher level of modeling efficiency and coefficient of determination (R2) in comparison with the initial FIS and the GA-FIS model. EF and R2 values obtained by the developed PSO-FIS model were 0.69 and 0.72, whereas they were 0.63 and 0.54 for the GA-FIS model. Moreover, the results of ME and RMSE indices showed that the PSO-FIS model can estimate soil saturated hydraulic conductivity more accurate than the GA-FIS model with ME?=?10.4 versus 11.5 and RMSE?=?5.2 versus 5.5 for PSO-FIS and GA-FIS, respectively.  相似文献   

13.
We have obtained high-accuracy photoelectric measurements of ES Lac, an eclipsing binary with an elliptical orbit (B9III + B9III; P = 4.459d, e = 0.198) in 1985–2004 at the Sternberg Astronomical Institute’s Tien Shan High-Altitude Observatory. Our detailed analysis of the 19-year uniform series of measurements has yielded the first photometric elements for this system, as well as a self-consistent set of physical and geometrical parameters for the binary. The virtually identical components (M 1 = M 2 = 3.0 M ⊙; R 1 = R 2 = 4.12 R ⊙) are appreciably separated from the main sequence, and are located on the giant branch: their age is t = (3.5 ± 0.2) × 108 yrs. An analysis of our observations together with previously published times of minima has enabled a considerable refinement of the period of the apsidal motion, U = 355 ± 20 years, and a first determination of the apsidal parameter reflecting the radial density distributions for the components stars: k 2 obs = 0.00213(18). This value is in a good agreement with the value expected theoretically for current evolutionary models of such stars: k 2 th = 0.00257(15).  相似文献   

14.
Because of economic and technical limitations, measuring solar energy received at ground level (R s ) isn’t possible in all parts of the country, and in only 12% of synoptic stations is this parameter measured and recorded. Thus, it should be estimated and modeled spatially based on other climatic variables using mathematical methods. In this research, many attempts have been made to introduce an air temperature-based model for Rs estimation, and then, based on the output of the mentioned models, several geostatistical methods have been tested, and finally an elegant spatial model is proposed for (Rs) zoning in Iran. In this regard, the relationships between the measured amounts of monthly solar radiation and other climatic parameters, such as a monthly average, maximum and minimum temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, and the number of sunny hours during the period 1970–2010, are examined and modeled. It was revealed that based on the linear relationship between the monthly average air temperatures and solar radiation values recorded in each of the stations, that the best-fit linear model, with R 2  = 0.822, MAE = 1.81, RMSE = 2.51%, and MAPE = 10.08, can be introduced for Rs estimation. Then, using the outputs of the proposed model, the amounts of (R s ) are estimated in another 171 meteorological stations (a total of 192 stations), and eight geostatistical methods (IDW, GPI, RBF, LPI, OK, SK, UK, and EBK) were investigated for zoning. Comparing the resulting variograms showed that in addition to proof of spatial correlation between solar radiation data, they can be applied for modeling changes in various directions. Analyzing the ratio of the nugget effect on the roof of the variograms showed that the Gaussian model with the lowest ratio (Co/Co + C = 0.883) and (R 2  = 0.972), could model the highest correlation between the data and, therefore, it was used for data interpolation. To select the best geostatistical model, R2, MAE, and RMSE were used. On this basis, it was found that the RBF method with R 2  = 0.904, MAE = 3.02, RMSE = 0.39% is the most effective. Also, the IDW method with R 2  = 0.90, MAE = 3.08, RMSE = 0.391%, compared to other methods is the most effective. In addition, for data validation, correlations between observed and estimated values of solar radiation were studied and found R 2  = 0.86.  相似文献   

15.
An analysis of high-resolution CCD spectra of the giant 25 Mon, which shows signs of metallicity, and the normal giant HR 7389 is presented. The derived effective temperatures, gravitational accelerations, and microturbulence velocities are Teff = 6700 K, log g = 3.24, and ξ t = 3.1 km/s for 25 Mon and Teff = 6630 K, log g = 3.71, and ξ t = 2.6 km/s for HR 7389. The abundances (log ε) of nine elements are determined: carbon, nitrogen, oxygen, sodium, silicon, calcium, iron, nickel, and barium. The derived excess carbon abundances are 0.23 dex for 25 Mon and 0.16 dex for HR 7389. 25 Mon displays a modest (0.08 dex) oxygen excess, with the oxygen excess for HR 7389 being somewhat higher (0.15 dex). The nitrogen abundance is probably no lower than the solar value for both stars. The abundances of iron, sodium, calcium (for HR 7389), barium, and nickel exceed the solar values by 0.22–0.40 dex for both stars. The highest excess (0.62 dex) is exhibited by the calcium abundance for 25 Mon. Silicon displays a nearly solar abundance in both stars—small deficits of ?0.03 dex and ?0.07 dex for 25 Mon and HR 7389, respectively. No fundamental differences in the elemental abundances were found in the atmospheres of 25 Mon and HR 7389. Based on their Teff and log g values, as well as theoretical calculations, A. Claret estimated the masses, radii, luminosities, and ages of 25 Mon (M/M⊙ = 2.45, log(R/R⊙) = 0.79, log(L/L⊙) = 1.85, t = 5.3 × 108 yr) and HR 7389 (M/M⊙ = 2.36, log(R/R⊙) = 0.50, log(L/L⊙) = 1.24, t = 4.6 × 108 yr), and also of the stars 20 Peg (M/M⊙ = 2.36, log(R/R⊙) = 0.73, log(L/L⊙) = 1.79, t = 4.9 × 108 yr) and 30 LMi (M/M⊙ = 2.47, log(R/R⊙) = 0.73, log(L/L⊙) = 1.88, t = 4.8 × 108 yr) studied by the author earlier.  相似文献   

16.
A CCD BV R photometric study of the central region (15″ ≤ r ≤ 100″) of the globular cluster NGC 7006 based on color-magnitude diagrams is presented. We find for the main parameters of the cluster [Fe/H] = ?1.62, Y = 0.21, E B?V = 0.15 m , V HB = 18.84 m , M V HB =+0.56 m , R ⊙ = 37.1 kpc). Two previously unknown RR Lyr variables were discovered in the central region of the cluster. The morphological index of the horizontal branch for the entire region studied indicates that the red stellar population dominates, consistent with previous studies: HB mi = ?0.13. Such anomalously negative morphological indices are possessed by a whole group of Ool clusters with intermediate metallicities, which also display a characteristic distribution of stars along the horizontal branch. There is a radial dependence for the horizontal-branch morphology, with the color becoming primarily blue with approach toward the cluster center. One possible origin for this behavior could be the effect of inner dynamical processes on the spatial distribution of hot stars.  相似文献   

17.
A technique for IR spectroscopic determination of the total nitrogen content N S in the form of A-and B 1-defects is suggested. It provides for the computer processing and decomposition of IR spectra into constituent bands, calculation of the total absorption band area S N and individual areas S A and S B1 and their normalization with respect to the total area of the diamond intrinsic absorption S 0, with the normalization coefficients K S , K A , and K B1 being calculated. Based on the analysis of the IR spectra of 60 octahedral diamond crystals from the Mir and Yubileinaya pipes (Sakha-Yakutiya), the empirical functions N S = 911.85 K S 0.9919 ppm (R 2 = 0.9859), N A = 1185.6 K A 1.1511 ppm (R 2 = 0.8703), and N B1 = 911.85 K S 0.9919 ? 1185.6 K A 1.1511 ppm have been defined.  相似文献   

18.
Ground vibration resulting from blasting is one of the most important environmental problems at open-cast mines. Therefore, accurately approximating the blast-induced ground vibration is very significant. By reviewing the previous investigations, many attempts have been done to create the empirical models for estimating ground vibration. Nevertheless, the performance of the empirical models is not good enough. In this research work, a new hybrid model of fuzzy system (FS) designed by imperialistic competitive algorithm (ICA) is proposed for approximating ground vibration resulting from blasting at Miduk copper mine, Iran. For comparison aims, various empirical models were also utilized. Results from different predictor models were compared by using coefficient of multiple determination (R 2), variance account for and root-mean-square error between measured and predicted values of the PPVs. Results prove that the FS–ICA model outperforms the other empirical models in terms of the prediction accuracy. In other words, the FS–ICA model with R 2 of 0.942 can forecast PPV better than the USBM with R 2 of 0.634, Ambraseys–Hendron with R 2 of 0.638, Langefors–Kihlstrom with R 2 of 0.637 and Indian Standard with R 2 of 0.519.  相似文献   

19.
The results of a systematic analysis of master radial-velocity curves for the X-ray binary 4U 1700-37 are presented. The dependence of the mass of the X-ray component on the mass of the optical component is derived in a Roche model based on a fit of the master radial-velocity curve. The parameters of the optical star are used to estimate the mass of the compact object in three ways. The masses derived based on information about the surface gravity of the optical companion and various observational data are 2.25 ?0.24 +0.23 M⊙ and 2.14 ?0.56 +0.50 M⊙. The masses based on the radius of the optical star, 21.9R⊙, are 1.76 ?0.21 +0.20 M⊙ and 1.65 ?0.56 +0.78 M⊙. The mass of the optical component derived from the mass-luminosity relation for X-ray binaries, 27.4M⊙, yields masses for the compact object of 1.41 ?0.08 + M⊙ and 1.35 ?0.18 +0.18 M⊙.  相似文献   

20.
Drought over a period threatens the water resources, agriculture, and socioeconomic activities. Therefore, it is crucial for decision makers to have a realistic anticipation of drought events to mitigate its impacts. Hence, this research aims at using the standardized precipitation index (SPI) to predict drought through time series analysis techniques. These adopted techniques are autoregressive integrating moving average (ARIMA) and feed-forward backpropagation neural network (FBNN) with different activation functions (sigmoid, bipolar sigmoid, and hyperbolic tangent). After that, the adequacy of these two techniques in predicting the drought conditions has been examined under arid ecosystems. The monthly precipitation data used in calculating the SPI time series (SPI 3, 6, 12, and 24 timescales) have been obtained from the tropical rainfall measuring mission (TRMM). The prediction of SPI was carried out and compared over six lead times from 1 to 6 using the model performance statistics (coefficient of correlation (R), mean absolute error (MAE), and root mean square error (RMSE)). The overall results prove an excellent performance of both predicting models for anticipating the drought conditions concerning model accuracy measures. Despite this, the FBNN models remain somewhat better than ARIMA models with R?≥?0.7865, MAE?≤?1.0637, and RMSE?≤?1.2466. Additionally, the FBNN based on hyperbolic tangent activation function demonstrated the best similarity between actual and predicted for SPI 24 by 98.44%. Eventually, all the activation function of FBNN models has good results respecting the SPI prediction with a small degree of variation among timescales. Therefore, any of these activation functions can be used equally even if the sigmoid and bipolar sigmoid functions are manifesting less adjusted R2 and higher errors (MAE and RMSE). In conclusion, the FBNN can be considered a promising technique for predicting the SPI as a drought monitoring index under arid ecosystems.  相似文献   

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