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1.
渤海湾西岸风暴潮:叠加地质因素的新探讨 总被引：3，自引：2，他引：1
通过对渤海湾西岸1895年以来11次风暴潮高水位的厘定,证实并确定了50年、100年、200年直至10000年一遇的风暴潮高水位值。定量评估了风增水与波浪对风暴潮高水位的贡献。进一步从地学角度讨论了21世纪10年间隔的海面上升量、地面下沉与围海造陆共同作用、海面上升引发的净增水效应及河口增水效应。根据上述各类参数,预测了至2050年的10年间隔、50~10000年不同重现期的极端水位,并讨论了地面下沉对风暴潮测量准确性的影响。认为当前的防潮堤(海垱)高度可抵御50~100年一遇的风暴潮的侵袭,但据所讨论的综合因素的影响,建议2020年防潮堤的高度应达到+4.8m,2030年达到+5.1m(85高程)。 相似文献
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3.
渤海湾西岸泥质海岸带地质环境现状与趋势预测 总被引：4，自引：3，他引：1
简要介绍了与泥质海岸带现代地质环境变化有关的最新研究结果,包括地质历史时期全球气温与海面的变化、21世纪海平面上升趋势预测、极端高水位、新奥尔良实例等。根据对前人成果的综合研究和小组获得的最新数据,阐明了影响渤海湾西岸环境变化的主要因素——保有高程、加积作用、地面下沉、海面上升和以极端增水为代表的突发事件——各自的现状,提出了综合诸因素相互作用的泥质海岸带的研究思路和警惕可能的沼泽化趋势的建议。 相似文献
4.
针对外海海平面上升对中国沿海潮波系统和潮汐水位可能带来的影响,通过西北太平洋潮波数学模型对边界海平面上升后潮波变化进行了数值模拟。研究发现边界海平面上升后,在无潮点附近东侧迟角增加,西侧迟角减小;无潮点北侧振幅增加,南侧振幅减小;辽东湾、渤海湾顶、辽东半岛东海域、海州湾至鲁南沿海、苏北沿海、台湾海峡至浙东沿海和南海平均潮差增加,海平面上升0.90 m后潮差最大增幅达0.40 m;长江口、杭州湾至对马海峡、朝鲜西海岸和莱州湾海域潮差减小。随着海平面上升量值的增加,渤海、台湾海峡潮差变化速率相对稳定,黄海、东海和南海站位变化速率有所变动;平均高水位的变化趋势与潮差一致;潮差增加的区域,高水位抬升幅度超过边界海平面上升幅度。海平面上升引起的高水位超幅变化,增加了沿海地区对风暴潮和其他灾害防护的风险。 相似文献
5.
气候变化和人类活动对伊塞克湖水位变化的影响及其演化趋势 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
结合气象、水文、冰川变化和人类活动序列资料,应用水量平衡方法分析了气候变化和人类活动对吉尔吉斯坦伊塞克湖1927—2008年水位变化的影响.结果表明:降水量和入湖径流量是湖泊水位变化的决定因素.在水量平衡各要素中,降水量和入湖径流量与湖泊水位变化的正相关关系最为密切,而灌溉耗水对目前湖泊水位的变化的影响仅处于次要地位.由于气候变化,流域高山区气温上升显著,湖面降水量和入湖径流量增加明显,导致湖面于1998年停止下降,开始回升,到2008年底已经上升了0.59 m.按照所有SRES情景预估的未来升温情况,伊塞克湖水位还将会因为雨雪比例的增大及冰川融水的大量增加而上升.因此,伊塞克湖水位现在已经处于自然波动恢复状态中,不需要从其他流域向伊塞克湖调水来恢复湖水位,但要注意灌溉回归水可能会对湖水造成一定的污染. 相似文献
6.
基于2008~2012年水质水位数据,分析水位变化下的鄱阳湖水质时空变化特征,并定量研究水位变动对水质的影响。结果表明:(1)鄱阳湖水质自2007年起呈恶化趋势,主要在水位涨落下湿地植被生物净化作用强弱转换影响下,丰水期水质好于枯水期。但有时因降雨初期非点源污染加剧,水位上升而水质下降;(2)水质沿主航道水流方向从主湖体东南部到入江水道逐渐好转,主要受乐安河、信江等入湖河流携污影响,同时受到滨湖城镇排污、采砂加剧内源污染释放等的影响;(3)星子站水位每上升1m,鄱阳湖全湖Ⅰ~Ⅲ类水比例提高6.2%。 相似文献
7.
三峡大坝自2003年蓄水以来,库区形成大量涉水滑坡。长江三峡库区的浮托减重型滑坡随库水位升降,变形非协调性增加,此类滑坡变形与库水位关系的不明确性,为其监测预警预报工作带来困惑。以木鱼包滑坡为研究对象,通过全自动GPS变形监测系统获取的滑坡监测资料,结合多次的野外考察、15年专业监测和库水位升降等资料进行分析,运用有限元软件Geo-studio进行数值模拟,模拟库水位以不同速率在175~145m间升降下对滑坡稳定性的影响。研究表明:(1)库水位由145m升至175m的过程中,滑坡的稳定系数变化为先减后增再减,库水上升速率越大,前期稳定系数减小的时间段越小,随后稳定系数增加的速率也越快;(2)在库水位由175m下降到145m的过程中,整个稳定系数变化趋势为先减小后增大,呈“V”字形,存在一个最危险水面,不同的库水下降速率对应的最危险水面高度也不一样,库水位以0.4,0.6,0.8,1.0,1.6m/d的速率下降时对应的最危险水位分别在169.8,167.8,162.6,162.0,162.2m左右;(3)木鱼包滑坡作为三峡库区典型的浮托减重性滑坡,在库水位大幅度及周期性升降的影响下,一直保持着蠕滑状态,平均日位移量为0.4mm/d,目前处于基本稳定状态。所得结论对三峡库区浮托减重型滑坡预警预报工作有一定的参考与借鉴意义。 相似文献
8.
上海地区沿海岸线工程受相对海平面上升影响浅析 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
上海由于其特殊的经济环境和地理位置,受海平面上升的影响特别显著.据推测,到2050年,由于海平面上升和地表沉降造成上海地区相对海平面升高50～70cm,将对沿海岸线工程构成直接威胁;(1)由海平面上升引起的地下水位上升会使土体有效重度减少和地基承载力降低.(2)计算表明,当海平面上升使附近地区地下水位升至地表以下1.0m时,上海地区浅层砂土层抗液化能力最多可降低40%,另外部分不液化场地可变为液化场地.(3)当海平面上升0.5m时,风曝潮位将增加0.43m,不仅增加了对海堤自身安全的威胁,而且海堤防御能力将由百年一遇和50年一遇变为50年一遇和20年一遇.潮位升高也将降低入海河流的行洪能力,加剧洪涝灾害. 相似文献
9.
三峡水库运行条件下金乐滑坡稳定性评价 总被引：1，自引：2，他引：1
三峡水库运行后,水库水位每年将在145m～162m～175m间波动,库水位的浸泡软化作用及水位升降引起的地下水位的波动将会降低库岸岩土体的抗剪强度,影响已有滑坡的稳定性.因此,在实际水库运行条件下滑坡的稳定性是目前迫切需要研究的重要课题.针对库区大型复杂滑坡——金乐滑坡,分析了该滑坡的工程地质条件和形成机制;建立了二维有限元计算模型并选择合理的岩土力学参数;利用英国帝国理工学院ICFEP有限元软件,依据水库实际运行曲线,在一年时间内分7种不同的模拟状态进行了模拟.结果表明:(1)金乐滑坡在天然状态下处于稳定状态;(2)库水位上升状态下,滑坡前缘稳定性较相应的稳定水位状态较好;(3)水位下降状态,滑坡前缘将出现破坏,特别是162m下降至145m时,滑坡前缘出现破坏,存在中前部渐进破坏的可能;(4)金乐滑坡变形破坏形式为牵引渐进式,在一个水位波动周期内不存在整体滑移的危险.建议对滑坡前缘进行治理. 相似文献
10.
临江场地的地下水位受外江水位影响，具有长期水位较低、短期汛期水位极高的特点。临江场地内的地下结构，若仅采用抗拔桩或抗拔锚杆等常规被动抗浮措施进行抗浮，将抗浮设防水位取为地表高程显然是偏危险的，但按50年一遇和100年一遇水位采用常规被动抗浮措施进行抗浮设计又显然是不经济的，成本极高。基于此，提出抗浮范畴临江结构的定义及其“排水廊道+常规抗浮措施”的主被动联合抗浮的方法。根据临江承压圆湖公式，考虑越流效应，给出了临江排水廊道简化计算分析方法并进行了有限元验证。临江地下结构利用排水廊道进行防洪渡汛，保证汛期地下结构水荷载稳定，消除汛期高水压对结构产生的极端水荷载，而对于平时非汛期水位的作用则利用常规抗浮措施进行考虑。廊道只在汛期高水位时起防洪渡汛作用，排水减压不会引起环境影响问题，同时其耐久性也容易保证。最后介绍利用此方法进行抗浮的实际工程。 相似文献
11.
Jie Yin Zhan-e Yin Xiao-meng Hu Shi-yuan Xu Jun Wang Zhi-hua Li Hai-dong Zhong Fu-bin Gan 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2011,63(2):407-414
Shanghai is physically and socio-economically vulnerable to accelerated sea level rise because of its low elevation, flat
topography, highly developed economy and highly-dense population. In this paper, two scenarios of sea level rise and storm
surge flooding along the Shanghai coast are presented by forecasting 24 (year 2030) and 44 (year 2050) years into the future
and are applied to a digital elevation model to illustrate the extent to which coastal areas are susceptible to levee breach
and overtopping using previously developed inflow calculating and flood routing models. Further, the socio-economic impacts
are examined by combining the inundation areas with land use and land cover change simulated using GeoCA-Urban software package.
This analysis shows that levee breach inundation mainly occurs in the coastal zones and minimally intrudes inland with the
conservative protection of dike systems designed. However, storm surge flooding at the possible maximum tide level could cause
nearly total inundation of the landscape, and put approximately 24 million people in Shanghai under direct risk resulting
from consequences of flooding (e.g. contamination of potable water supplies, failure of septic systems, etc.). 相似文献
12.
《China Geology》2019,2(1):26-39
Bulletins of China’s National Sea Level show that the average rising rate of sea-levels in China is 3.3 mm/a over the past 40 years, with an obviously accelerated rising trend in the last decade. The rate of relative sea-level rise of the Yangtze River Delta reached >10 mm/a after considering the land subsidence, and Bohai Bay is even greater than 25 mm/a. The impact of the sea level rise to the coastal area will be greater in the coming years, so carrying out an assessment of this rising trend is urgent. This paper, taking the coastal area of Tianjin and Hebei as examples, comprehensively evaluates the impact of sea-level rise through multitemporal remote sensing shoreline interpretation, ground survey verification, elevation measurements for both seawall and coastal lowlands. The results show that the average elevation of the measured coastal areas of Tianjin and Hebei is about +4 m, and the total area of >100 km2 is already below the present mean sea level. More than 270 km, ca. 31% of the total length of the seawall, cannot withstand a 1-in-100-year storm surge. Numerical simulations of the storm flooding on the west coast of Bohai Bay, for 1-in-50-years, 1-in-100-years, 1-in-200-years and 1-in-500-years, show that if there were no coastal dykes, the maximum flooding area would exceed 3000 km2, 4000 km2, 5300 km2 and 7200 km2, respectively. The rising sea has a direct and potential impact on the coastal lowlands of Tianjin and Hebei. Based on the latest development in international sea-level rise prediction research, this paper proposes 0.5 m, 1.0 m and 1.5 m as low, middle and high sea level rise scenarios by 2100 for the study area, and combines the land subsidence and other factors to the elevation of the existing seawall. Comprehensive evaluation results indicate that even in the case of a low scenario, the existing seawall will not be able to withstand a 1-in-100-years storm surge in 2030, and the potential flooding areas predicted by the model will become a reality in the near future. Therefore, the seawall design in the coastal areas of Tianjin and Hebei must consider the combined effects of land subsidence, sea level rise and the extreme storm surges caused by it.©2019 China Geology Editorial Office. 相似文献
13.
海平面上升已引起各国政府和科技界的高度关注。预计未来30年,浙江沿海海平面将比2009年升高88~140 mm。海平面上升与浙江沿海平原地面沉降迭加将进一步恶化地质与生态系统,引发许多灾害问题,制约沿海区域经济社会的可持续发展。本文主要就如何应对海平面上升与地面沉降迭加引发的地质灾害链与生态环境问题进行了探讨,认为要从地球系统科学角度,重视对陆-海相互作用机制与生态环境效应的研究,着手考虑建立陆海(包括入海河流)统筹的海岸带地质与生态环境监测评价系统。 相似文献
14.
河口三角洲和沿海城市面临着台风、暴雨、高潮位和上游下泄洪水叠加的“四碰头”复合极端风暴洪水的严重威胁。构建了大气-海洋-陆地相耦合的一体化数值模拟系统,实现了上海市“风”“暴”“潮”“洪”多灾种复合情景的极端洪涝淹没模拟,并验证了耦合方法的有效性,为复合风暴洪水的一体化模拟提供了一套可行的数值模拟方法。在9711台风影响下,模拟了1998年堤防升级改造后淹没面积(水深>0.2m)比改造前减少了62%,表明沿海沿江堤防设施建设在上海市防台防汛中起着关键性的作用。复合极端风暴洪水的有效模拟可为财产保险和未来市政规划提供参考。 相似文献
15.
基于生态工程的海岸带全球变化适应性防护策略 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
在全球变化导致的海平面上升和灾害性气候等压力下,我国海岸带风暴潮、海岸侵蚀、地面沉降等灾害发生频率和强度正在增加,对海岸防护体系的需求日益提高。传统海岸防护工程维护成本高,更新困难,而且可能造成地面沉降、水质恶化、生态退化、渔业资源衰退等后果。基于生态工程的海岸防护提供了抵御海岸带灾害的新理念。修复和重建沙滩、红树林、沼泽湿地、珊瑚礁等海岸带生态系统,可以起到消浪、蓄积泥沙、抬升地面的作用,有效应对全球变化引发的灾害风险,形成更可持续的海岸防护体系。通过分析不同海岸防护技术的优势和限制,认为以生态工程为核心理念构建和管理我国海岸防护体系,才能起到保障社会经济发展和维持生态健康的最佳效果。 相似文献
16.
Assessing future risk: quantifying the effects of sea level rise on storm surge risk for the southern shores of Long Island, New York 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1
Christine C. Shepard Vera N. Agostini Ben Gilmer Tashya Allen Jeff Stone William Brooks Michael W. Beck 《Natural Hazards》2012,60(2):727-745
Sea level rise threatens to increase the impacts of future storms and hurricanes on coastal communities. However, many coastal
hazard mitigation plans do not consider sea level rise when assessing storm surge risk. Here we apply a GIS-based approach
to quantify potential changes in storm surge risk due to sea level rise on Long Island, New York. We demonstrate a method
for combining hazard exposure and community vulnerability to spatially characterize risk for both present and future sea level
conditions using commonly available national data sets. Our results show that sea level rise will likely increase risk in
many coastal areas and will potentially create risk where it was not before. We find that even modest and probable sea level
rise (.5 m by 2080) vastly increases the numbers of people (47% increase) and property loss (73% increase) impacted by storm
surge. In addition, the resulting maps of hazard exposure and community vulnerability provide a clear and useful example of
the visual representation of the spatial distribution of the components of risk that can be helpful for developing targeted
hazard mitigation and climate change adaptation strategies. Our results suggest that coastal agencies tasked with managing
storm surge risk must consider the effects of sea level rise if they are to ensure safe and sustainable coastal communities
in the future. 相似文献
17.
A nested model for the simulation of tides and storm surges in the Bohai Sea, China, has been developed based on the three-dimensional finite-volume coastal ocean model. The larger domain covers the entire Yellow Sea and Bohai Sea with a horizontal resolution of ~10 km, and the smaller domain focuses on the Bohai Sea with a fine resolution up to ~300 m. For the four representative storm surges caused by extratropical storms and typhoons, the simulated surge heights are in good agreement with observations at coastal tide gauges. A series of sensitivity experiments are carried out to assess the influence of coastline change due to land reclamation in recent decades on water levels during storm surges. Simulation results suggest that changes in coastline cause changes in the amplitude and phase of the tidal elevation, and fluctuations of surge height after the peak stage of the storm surges. Hence, for the assessment of the influence of coastline changes on the total water level during storm surges, the amplitudes and phases of both the tidal and surge heights need to be taken into account. For the three major ports in the Bohai Bay, model results suggest that land reclamation has created a coastline structure that favors increasing the maximum water level by 0.1–0.2 m. Considering that during the storm surges the total water level is close to or even exceeds the warning level for these ports, further increasing the maximum water level by 0.1–0.2 m has the potential to cause severe damages and losses in these ports.
相似文献18.
受大气降水、黄河水位断流、风暴潮和人类工程活动等因素影响,现代黄河三角洲滨海湿地生态水文环境极其脆弱和敏感。本文运用地下水数值模拟方法,通过构建滨海湿地水文模型,以氯离子作为模拟因子,预测滨海湿地地下水趋势性变化。计算结果显示,湿地水位和盐度对湿地生长和发育起控制作用;黄河持续断流和强烈风暴潮对湿地水质影响明显;当风暴潮引起增水幅度超过正常潮高的2.4m,会造成沿海低地特别是北部未受防潮大坝保护的滨海湿地淹没。 相似文献
19.
A modeling study of coastal inundation induced by storm surge,sea-level rise,and subsidence in the Gulf of Mexico 总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0
Zhaoqing Yang Taiping Wang Ruby Leung Kathy Hibbard Tony Janetos Ian Kraucunas Jennie Rice Benjamin Preston Tom Wilbanks 《Natural Hazards》2014,71(3):1771-1794
The northern coasts of the Gulf of Mexico (GoM) are highly vulnerable to the direct threats of climate change, such as hurricane-induced storm surge, and such risks are exacerbated by land subsidence and global sea-level rise. This paper presents an application of a coastal storm surge model to study the coastal inundation process induced by tide and storm surge, and its response to the effects of land subsidence and sea-level rise in the northern Gulf coast. The unstructured-grid finite-volume coastal ocean model was used to simulate tides and hurricane-induced storm surges in the GoM. Simulated distributions of co-amplitude and co-phase lines for semi-diurnal and diurnal tides are in good agreement with previous modeling studies. The storm surges induced by four historical hurricanes (Rita, Katrina, Ivan, and Dolly) were simulated and compared to observed water levels at National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration tide stations. Effects of coastal subsidence and future global sea-level rise on coastal inundation in the Louisiana coast were evaluated using a “change of inundation depth” parameter through sensitivity simulations that were based on a projected future subsidence scenario and 1-m global sea-level rise by the end of the century. Model results suggested that hurricane-induced storm surge height and coastal inundation could be exacerbated by future global sea-level rise and subsidence, and that responses of storm surge and coastal inundation to the effects of sea-level rise and subsidence are highly nonlinear and vary on temporal and spatial scales. 相似文献