共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 46 毫秒
1.
2.
随着全球气候变化、自然变迁及陆表生境改变，极端天气频发且呈现出多尺度时空变异特征，对其进行预报和预警一直是气象水文领域关注的焦点。临近预报可较准确地预报未来短时间天气显著变化，是当前预报强降水等极端事件的主要手段。从基于天气雷达0~3 h外推临近预报、融合数值模式0~6 h临近预报的发展历程梳理了临近预报的研究进展，阐述了雷达外推算法的发展进程、雷达外推预报与数值模式预报融合技术进展，指出"取长补短"的0~6 h融合预报在提高降水预报精度、延长降水预见期等多方面有较大的发展潜力，进一步探寻及提升融合技术是未来融合预报发展的核心。将临近预报以气象水文耦合的方式引入水文预报是从源头提高水文预报精度、保障水文预报效果的主要途径，总结了现阶段主流耦合方式、空间尺度匹配技术、水文模型不确定等陆气耦合中的关键问题，阐述了外推临近预报、融合临近预报作为水文预报输入的研究进展，明确了融合临近预报在延长洪水预见期、提高洪水预报精度中存在优势，并讨论了未来的研究重点及发展方向。 相似文献
3.
While qualitative information from meteorological satellites has long been recognized as critical for monitoring weather events such as tropical cyclone activity, quantitative data are required to improve the numerical prediction of these events. In this paper, the sea surface winds from QuikSCAT, cloud motion vectors and water vapor winds from KALPANA-1 are assimilated using three-dimensional variational assimilation technique within Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) modeling system. Further, the sensitivity experiments are also carried out using the available cumulus convective parameterizations in WRF modeling system. The model performance is evaluated using available observations, and both qualitative and quantitative analyses are carried out while analyzing the surface and upper-air characteristics over Mumbai (previously Bombay) and Goa during the occurrence of the tropical cyclone PHYAN at the west coast of Indian subcontinent. The model-predicted surface and upper-air characteristics show improvements in most of the situations with the use of the satellite-derived winds from QuikSCAT and KALPANA-1. Some of the model results are also found to be better in sensitivity experiments using cumulus convection schemes as compared to the CONTROL simulation. 相似文献
4.
In consideration of large uncertainties in severe convective weather forecast, ensemble forecasting is a dynamic method developed to quantitatively estimate forecast uncertainty. Based on ensemble output, joint probability is a post-processing method to delineate key areas where weather event may actually occur by taking account of the uncertainty of several important physical parameters. An investigation of the environments of little rainfall convection and strong rainfall convection from April to September (warm season) during 2009-2015 was presented using daily disastrous weather data, precipitation data of 80 stations in Anhui province and NCEP Final Analysis (FNL) data. Through ingredients-based forecasting methodology and statistical analysis,four convective parameters characterizing two types of convection were obtained, respectively, which were used to establish joint probability forecasting together with their corresponding thresholds. Using the ECMWF ensemble forecast and observations from April to September during 2016-2017, systematic verification mainly based on ROC and case study of different weather processes were conducted. The results demonstrate that joint probability method is capable of discriminating little rainfall convection and non-convection with comparable performance for different lead times, which is more favorable to identifying the occurrence of strong rainfall convection. The joint probability of little rainfall convection is a good indication for the occurrence of regional or local convection, but may produce some false alarms. The joint probability of strong rainfall convection is good at indicating regional concentrated short-term heavy precipitation as well as local heavy rainfall. There are also individual missing reports in this method, and in practice, 10% can be roughly used as joint probability threshold to achieve relative high TS score. Overall, ensemble-based joint probability method can provide practical short-term probabilistic guidance for severe convective weather. 相似文献
5.
陆面作为大气运动的下边界,通过动量、热量及物质交换与大气发生复杂的相互作用。陆面过程被认为是影响天气气候的关键过程之一。关于陆面过程对气候的影响已经开展了大量较为深入的研究,相比之下,针对陆面过程对天气的影响研究并没有受到足够的重视。近年来,陆面过程与天气研究也开始受到了越来越多的关注。本文从陆面基本要素、下垫面构成、陆面诱发的局地环流3个方面,回顾了土壤湿度、地形、土地利用、山谷-平原环流等要素和过程对强对流、暴雨、台风、高温热浪等天气事件影响研究的相关进展,以期为今后的研究提供参考。需要指出,尽管此方面的研究已取得了一定进展,但关于陆面过程对天气,尤其是极端(高影响)天气的影响及机制还有待深入研究,进而从陆面过程的角度来理解重要天气形成、发生和发展的机理,从而为数值模式发展和天气预报业务提供更有力的科学支撑。 相似文献
6.
Yu-Kun Qian Shiqiu Peng Shun Liu Shumin Chen Ziqian Wang Qilin Wan Zitong Chen 《Natural Hazards》2018,94(1):279-298
Observations by Doppler weather radar are crucial for nowcasting and short-time forecasting of severe weather events as they bring in refined information of the atmosphere. However, due to the inevitable noises and non-meteorological signals, they cannot be assimilated straightforwardly into a numerical model. In the present study, assimilation of the radial component of wind velocity observed by two Doppler radars is performed in the numerical simulation of Supertyphoon Rammasun (2014) just before its landfall. After several quality-control steps, the radar-observed radial velocities are de-aliased, noise-reduced and assimilated into the model to improve initial conditions for the high-resolution simulation. Results show that only when using global background error covariance matrix can the observational increment be properly assimilated into the model, correcting large-scale background steering flow and yielding a simulated track close to the observed one. However, little improvement is found in simulating the TC core-scale structures by the assimilation of radar velocity as compared to the radar-observed flow, primarily due to the insufficient spatial resolution of the model that may lead to the incorrect representation of the TC core structure and the rejection of some core-region observations during the data assimilation procedure. Moreover, assimilation-induced asymmetries consume a certain portion of mean kinetic energy, preventing the simulated Rammasun from axisymmetrization and thus intensification as compared with the non-assimilated experiment. 相似文献
7.
《Atmósfera》2014,27(1):21-34
The Romanian National Meteorological Administration (NMA) radar network consists of five S-band and four C-band radars. Observation of convection in Romania through the Doppler radar network offered a new perspective in understanding the climatologic risk of certain regions and mesoscale environments. Highly organized convective systems, such as supercells, are better observed and their subsequent threat can be better anticipated during the nowcasting process using Doppler velocity fields and detection algorithms such as mesocyclones (MESO) and tornadic vortex signature (TVS). However, for warning purposes, these tools cannot be used without a subjective validation because of the associated errors and limitations of radar observations. In this paper several cases are presented where the presence of large hail inside the storm produced a radar artifact named three-body scatter signature (TBSS) that disturbed the Doppler velocity field. The cases presented were observed with S-band radars and were associated with hail reports on the ground. The first case shows a TBSS whose radial Doppler velocities are negative due to the falling hydrometeors. The second case is a less frequent event; there the Doppler velocities in the TBSS region are positive due to the updraft. The third case has both positive and negative values in the TBSS region; it ocurred in a supercell that affected the city of Varna in Bulgaria with large hail. The positive values were associated with the overhang region in the rotational updraft at upper heights, while the negative values in the regions outside the rotational updraft at lower heights, were associated with the downdrafts. Features produced by the TBSS have perturbed the output of the MESO and TVS algorithms by introducing false strong values of wind shear that have been interpreted as rotation. Thus false mesocyclonic and tornadic vortex signatures were generated. In some of the cases large hail and weak tornadoes were reported, so the presence of a TBSS was a challenge for the nowcasters. In the last part of the paper we analyze the link between the TBSS appearance with reports of large hail at the ground in 2009 within the coverage area of the Romanian S-band radars, which also cover parts of Hungary, Bulgaria, the Republic of Moldova and Serbia. The results show that the TBSS artifact is a strong indicator of large-size hail. 相似文献
8.
Satellite detection of thermal precursors of Yamnotri,Ravar and Dalbandin earthquakes 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1
Saraf Arun K. Rawat Vineeta Das Josodhir Zia Mohammed Sharma Kanika 《Natural Hazards》2012,61(2):861-872
Prior to the occurrence of an earthquake, the region undergoes intensive physiochemical changes. Such changes trigger degassing
charge generation leading to positive change in the thermal regime and consequently creation of an earthquake preparation
zone. These changes in thermal regime can be detected by the thermal sensors onboard various polar orbiting satellites. Recent
researches have demonstrated that thermal infrared sensors onboard satellites (e.g., NOAA-AVHRR and Terra/Aqua-MODIS) can
detect temporal transient thermal infrared anomalies prior to an earthquake. The paper presents satellite-based thermal observations
associated with Yamnotri (July 22, 2007, India), Ravar (October 14, 2004, Iran) and Dalbandin (January 19, 2011, Pakistan)
earthquakes. In the case of Yamnotri earthquake, the region attained around 5–8°C higher than the normal temperature on July
21, 2007 in the area, just 1 day before the earthquake. Whereas, in the case of Ravar earthquake, the region has shown 5–7°C
higher temperature on October 06, 2004 about 6 days before the occurrence of the main earthquake event. Dalbandin earthquake
showed a maxima on January 17, 2011, just 2 days before the main shock with the raised temperature of around 8–10°C. Another
common observation in all these earthquakes is the disappearance of short-term transient thermal anomaly just before the main
shock. 相似文献
9.
The weather systems that predominantly affect the eastern and northeastern parts of India during the pre-monsoon summer months
(March, April and May) are severe thunderstorms, known as Nor’westers. The storms derive their names from the fact that they
frequently strike cities and towns in the southern part of West Bengal in the afternoon from the north-west direction while
traveling far from its place of genesis over the Bihar plateau. The storms are devastating in nature particularly due to strong
(gusty) winds, heavy rains and hails associated with it. Although these storms are well known for its power of causing damages,
studies on them are relatively few due to their small size and sparse network of observations. To address this important issue,
the evolution of two Nor’westers of 12 March and 22 May 2003 over Kolkata is studied in detail in this paper using hourly
Doppler weather radar (DWR) observations and high resolution Meteosat-5 imageries. In addition, supporting meteorological
reports are used to find the large scale conditions that influence the moisture convergence and vertical wind shear. The genesis
of both the storms is found to be over Bihar-Jharkhand region and beyond the range of the DWR. The satellite observations
are found to be useful in identifying the location and initiation of the storms. The movements of the storms are captured
by the DWR estimated vertical cross-section of reflectivities. The Doppler estimate shows that the 12 March storm had a vertical
extent of about 10–12 km at the time of maturity and that of 22 May reaching up to 18 km signifying deep convection associated
with these events. The genesis, maturity and dissipation are well brought out by the hourly DWR and satellite imageries. The
DWR observations suggest that the systems move at a speed of 20–25 m/s. The DWR estimated precipitation shows a detailed spatial
distribution around Kolkata with several localized zones of heavy rain and this is found to be well supported by the nearby
station observations. This study establishes that DWR observations along with hourly satellite imageries are able to capture
the evolution of Nor’westers. The study also shows that the composite DWR-satellite information is a reliable tool for nowcasting
the location, time and path of movement of Nor’westers. Based on these observations, a conceptual model of the Nor’wester
is proposed. 相似文献
10.
From the temperature and moisture retrievals from satellites, two types of indices were derived: one indicating suppression
of convection and the other indicating organized deep convection. Sea surface skin temperature and equivalent potential temperatures
up to 500 mbar level of the atmosphere, derived from TIROS-N satellite products, are the basis of the two indices. The maps
of these indices for various phases of 1979 monsoon are compared with percentage cloudiness, a product also available from
TIROS-N satellite observations. Despite the various limitations of satellite soundings, it is shown that these satellite-derived
indices can be used to indicate the strengths of atmospheric convection and inversion over the oceans. 相似文献
11.
Soil moisture from operational meteorological satellites 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
Wolfgang Wagner Vahid Naeimi Klaus Scipal Richard de Jeu José Martínez-Fernández 《Hydrogeology Journal》2007,15(1):121-131
In recent years, unforeseen advances in monitoring soil moisture from operational satellite platforms have been made, mainly due to improved geophysical retrieval methods. In this study, four recently published soil-moisture datasets are compared with in-situ observations from the REMEDHUS monitoring network located in the semi-arid part of the Duero basin in Spain. The remotely sensed soil-moisture products are retrieved from (1) the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR-E), which is a passive microwave sensor on-board NASA’s Aqua satellite, (2) European Remote Sensing satellite (ERS) scatterometer, which is an active microwave sensor on-board the two ERS satellites and (3) visible and thermal images from the METEOSAT satellite. Statistical analysis indicates that three satellite datasets contribute effectively to the monitoring of trends in surface soil-moisture conditions, but not to the estimation of absolute soil-moisture values. These sensors, or rather their successors, will be flown on operational meteorological satellites in the near future. With further improvements in processing techniques, operational meteorological satellites will increasingly deliver high-quality soil-moisture data. This may be of particular interest for hydrogeological studies that investigate long-term processes such as groundwater recharge. 相似文献
12.
Progress in Researches on Ensemble Forecasting of Extreme Weather Based on Numerical Models 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
Under the background of climate change, extreme weather events (e.g., heavy rainfall, heat wave, and cold damage) in China have been occurring more frequently with an increasing trend of induced meteorological disasters. Therefore, it is of great importance to carry out research on forecasting of extreme weather. This paper systematically reviewed the primary methodology of extreme weather forecast, current status in development of ensemble weather forecasting based on numerical models and their applications to forecast of extreme weather, as well as progress in approaches for correcting ensemble probabilistic forecast. Nowadays, the forecasting of extreme weather has been generally dominated by methodology using dynamical models. That is to say, the dynamical forecasting methods based on ensemble probabilistic forecast information have become prevailing in current operational extreme weather forecast worldwide. It can be clearly found that the current major directions of research and development in this field are the application of ensemble forecasts based on numerical models to forecasting of extreme weather, and its improvement through bias correction of ensemble probabilistic forecast. Based on a relatively comprehensive review in this paper, some suggestions with respect to development of extreme weather forecast in future were further given in terms of the issues of how to propose effective approaches on improving level of identification and forecasting of extreme events. 相似文献
13.
地球观测数据卫星分发系统(GEONETCast)借助通信卫星,把从地面站点、航空和航天平台获取的观测数据、产品传送给广大的用户。GEONETCast当前由CMACast,EUMETCast和GEONETCast Americas 3个区域系统组成,作为地球观测组织(GEO)提出的全球综合地球观测系统(GEOSS)的全球地球观测数据和信息卫星分发系统,旨在满足9个社会受益领域的用户需求。GEONETCast建立在现有区域系统之上,利用GEO的协调机制,共同确定GEONETCast系统的整体计划和要求。各区域系统在科研项目和业务建设的支持下,不断发展完善。未来要保障GEONET-Cast健康、良性和可持续的业务运行,还需要加强4个方面的工作:①区域系统之间的互相通信;②保持GEONETCast的开放性和动态性,发展更多的数据提供者提供地球观测数据;③发展更多的数据使用者;④数据政策。 相似文献
14.
There is wide interest in the results of studies of the dynamics of satellites of planets. Such data are needed to determine the physical properties of celestial bodies, and they may be able to provide information about the origins and evolution of the solar system. The general approach to studying the dynamics of satellites involves developing models for the motion and ephemerides based on observational data. Ephemerides are required to prepare and launch space missions to other planets and help discover new celestial bodies. High-precision astrometric coordinates of the principal satellites of Jupiter, Saturn, and Uranus are derived from photometric observations of occultations and eclipses of these satellites. To this end, worldwide observing campaigns have been organized. Enhancement in the precision of ephemerides can be obtained not only by increasing the accuracy of observations, but also by expanding the time interval covered by the observations. Many new, distant satellites of the major planets were discovered in the early 21st century. However, observations of these satellites are scarce and were obtained over short time intervals; as a result, some of these satellites were lost. To date, 179 natural satellites are known. This paper is based on a presentation made at the conference “Modern Astrometry 2017,” dedicated to the memory of K.V. Kuimov (Sternberg Astronomical Institute, Moscow State University, October 23–25, 2017).
相似文献15.
This article reviews the current state-of-the-art and future prospects of the microwave techniques for remote sensing of the
earth’s atmosphere and ocean. Geophysical parameters and their relationship with measured thermal microwave radiation is established
through radiative transfer processes. The atmospheric temperature profile obtained from microwave sounding unit (msu) onboardtiros-N series of satellites is operational and is used for numerical weather prediction. The demonstrated applications of scanning
multichannel microwave radiometer (smmr) onboard most recent and advancedseasat satellite are highlighted.The capability ofseasat active sensors for monitoring ocean parameters have also been indicated. Feasible applications of microwave techniquese.g. moisture profile with advanced moisture sounder (amsu), and surface pressure from multifrequency active microwave pressure sounder (mps) are also described. Finally the recent and advanced microwave limb sounding (mls) technique and its applications to upper atmospheric research has been reviewed. 相似文献
16.
联合机载PLMR微波辐射计和MODIS产品反演黑河中游张掖绿洲土壤水分研究 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
土壤水分是气候、水文学研究中的重要变量,微波遥感是获取区域地表土壤水分的重要手段,而L波段更是微波土壤水分反演的最优波段。依托HiWATER黑河中游绿洲试验区的地面观测及机载PLMR微波辐射计亮温数据,利用微波辐射传输模型L-MEB,并将MODIS地表温度产品(MOD11A1)和叶面积指数产品(MYD15A2)作为模型及反演中的先验辅助信息,借助LM优化算法,通过PLMR双极化多角度的亮温观测,针对土壤水分、植被含水量(VWC)和地表粗糙度这3个主要参数,分别进行土壤水分单参数反演、土壤水分与VWC或粗糙度的双参数反演以及这3个参数的同时反演。通过对不同反演方法的比较可以得出结论,多源辅助数据及PLMR双极化、多角度信息的应用可以显著降低反演的不确定性,提高土壤水分反演精度。证明在合理的模型参数和反演策略下,SMOS的L-MEB模型和产品算法可以达到0.04 cm3/cm3的反演精度,另外无线传感器网络可以在遥感产品真实性检验中起到重要作用。 相似文献
17.
机载多普勒天气雷达及应用研究进展 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
机载多普勒天气雷达由于其灵活机动性,在台风、暴雨等灾害性天气系统中尺度三维精细结构研究中发挥着重要作用.对机载多普勒天气雷达技术及其资料应用进行了概要性综述,主要从机载多普勒天气雷达发展历程、4种主要机载多普勒雷达技术特点、雷达天线扫描策略、单多普勒雷达风场反演技术、双多普勒雷达风场反演技术、雷达资料同化以及目标观测等方面进行阐述和分析;着重讨论了应用中需要解决的问题.最后,指出发展具有快速扫描和双偏振功能的机载相控阵多普勒雷达是机载天气雷达的发展方向,它可以获取高时空分辨率的探测数据,能够对云和降水系统的三维精细动力结构、热力结构以及微物理结构等进行综合研究. 相似文献
18.
Ken T. Murata Praphan Pavarangkoon Atsushi Higuchi Koichi Toyoshima Kazunori Yamamoto Kazuya Muranaga Yoshiaki Nagaya Yasushi Izumikawa Eizen Kimura Takamichi Mizuhara 《Earth Science Informatics》2018,11(2):217-237
It has been almost four decades since the first launch of geostationary meteorological satellite by Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA). The specifications of the geostationary meteorological satellites have shown tremendous progresses along with the generations, which are now entering their third generation. The third-generation geostationary meteorological satellites not only yield basic data for weather monitoring, but also globally observe the Earth’s environment. The development of multi-band imagers with improved spatial resolution onboard the third-generation geostationary meteorological satellites brings us meteorological data in larger size than those of the second-generation ones. Thus, new techniques for domestic and world-wide dissemination of the observational big data are needed. In this paper, we develop a web-based data visualization for Himawari-8 satellite sensed images in real time and with full resolution. This data visualization is supported by the ecosystems, which uses a tiled pyramid representation and parallel processing technique for terrain on an academic cloud system. We evaluate the performance of our techniques for domestic and international users on laboratory experiments. The results show that our data visualization is suitable for practical use on a temporal preview of observation image data for the domestic users. 相似文献
19.
Ivica Vilibić Hrvoje Kalinić Hrvoje Mihanović Simone Cosoli Martina Tudor Nedjeljka žagar Blaž Jesenko 《Computational Geosciences》2016,20(1):115-131
We performed a number of sensitivity experiments by applying a mapping technique, self-organizing maps (SOM) method, to the surface current data measured by high-frequency (HF) radars in the northern Adriatic and surface winds modelled by two state-of-the-art mesoscale meteorological models, the Aladin (Aire Limitée Adaptation Dynamique Développement InterNational) and the Weather and Research Forecasting models. Surface current data used for the SOM training were collected during a period in which radar coverage was the highest: between February and November 2008. Different pre-processing techniques, such as removal of tides and low-pass filtering, were applied to the data in order to test the sensitivity of characteristic patterns and the connectivity between different SOM solutions. Topographic error did not exceed 15 %, indicating the applicability of the SOM method to the data. The largest difference has been obtained when comparing SOM patterns originating from unprocessed and low-pass filtered data. Introduction of modelled winds in joint SOM analyses stabilized the solutions, while sensitivity to wind forcing coming from the two different meteorological models was found to be small. Such a low sensitivity is considered to be favourable for creation of an operational ocean forecasting system based on neural networks, HF radar measurements and numerical weather prediction mesoscale models. 相似文献
20.
Atmospheric physics in numerical weather prediction model which predominantly determines the evolution of atmospheric processes is mainly described by physical parameterization. As a result, the development of physical parameterization has been a hot research issue in the area of numerical prediction for a long time. In this regard, the theoretical background and history of physical parameterization schemes for convection, microphysics, and planetary boundary layer, were reviewed in this study. It is suggested that the advance of physical parameterization for the model with high-resolution grid spaces should be considered as a principle issue for numerical model development in the future. Although the gird spaces in current operational numerical models generally decrease toward 10 km owing to the rapid development of high-performance computation, yet most of these schemes are designed for coarse grid spaces. Because of this kind of deficiency, the theoretical basis of these schemes inevitably faces controversy. Directions for development of physical parameterization were also suggested according to the trends of research in numerical prediction. 相似文献