首页 | 本学科首页   官方微博 | 高级检索  
相似文献
 共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 273 毫秒
1.
The present study concerns the application of a numerical approach to describe the influence of anthropogenic modifications in surface flows (operation of a projected reservoir) on the freshwater-seawater relationships in a downstream coastal aquifer which has seasonal seawater intrusion problems (River Verde alluvial aquifer, Almuñécar, southern Spain). A steady-state finite element solution to the partial differential equation governing the regional motion of a phreatic surface and the resulting sharp interface between fresh water and salt water was used to predict the regional behavior of the River Verde aquifer under actual surface flow conditions. The present model approximates, with simple triangular elements, the regional behavior of a coastal aquifer under appropriate sinks, sources, Neumann and open boundary conditions. A steady-state solution to this numerical approach has been shown to precisely calculate freshwater heads, saltwater thicknesses, and freshwater discharges along steeply sloping coasts. Hence, the adequate treatment and interpretation of the hydrogeological data which are available for the River Verde aquifer have been of main concern in satisfactorily applying the proposed numerical model. Present simulated conditions consider steady-state yearly averaged amounts of external supplies of fresh water in order to determine the influences of the projected Otívar reservoir on the further behavior of the River Verde coastal aquifer. When recharges occur at the coastline, essentially because of freshwater deficits due to groundwater overexploitation, a hypothesis of mixing for the freshwater-saltwater transition zone is made in order to still allow the model to continue calculating groundwater heads under the sea level, and, as a consequence, the resulting seawater intrusion and recharges of saltwater from the sea. Simulations show that a considerable advance in seawater intrusion would be expected in the coastal aquifer if current rates of groundwater pumping continue and a significant part of the runoff from the River Verde is channeled from the Otívar reservoir for irrigation purposes.  相似文献   

2.
Predicted changes in climate will lead to seawater intrusion in the Querença-Silves (QS) coastal aquifer (south Portugal) during the coming century if the current water-resource-management strategy is maintained. As for much of the Mediterranean, average rainfall is predicted to decrease along with increasing seasonal and inter-annual variability and there is a need to understand how these changes will affect the sustainable use of groundwater resources. A density-coupled flow and transport model of the QS was used to simulate an ensemble of climate, water-use and adaptation scenarios from 2010 to 2099 taking into account intra- and inter-annual variability in recharge and groundwater use. By considering several climate models, bias correction and recharge calculation methods, a degree of uncertainty was included. Changes in rainfall regimes will have an immediate effect on groundwater discharge; however, the effect on saltwater intrusion is attenuated by the freshwater–saltwater interfaces’ comparatively slow rate of movement. Comparing the effects of adaptation measures demonstrates that the extent of intrusion in the QS is controlled by the long-term water budget, as the effectiveness of both demand and supply oriented measures is proportional to the change in water budget, and that to maintain the current position, average groundwater discharge should be in the order of 50 × 106 m3 yr?1.  相似文献   

3.
Saltwater intrusion in coastal regions of North America   总被引：7，自引：3，他引：4  
Saltwater has intruded into many of the coastal aquifers of the United States, Mexico, and Canada, but the extent of saltwater intrusion varies widely among localities and hydrogeologic settings. In many instances, the area contaminated by saltwater is limited to small parts of an aquifer and to specific wells and has had little or no effect on overall groundwater supplies; in other instances, saltwater contamination is of regional extent and has resulted in the closure of many groundwater supply wells. The variability of hydrogeologic settings, three-dimensional distribution of saline water, and history of groundwater withdrawals and freshwater drainage has resulted in a variety of modes of saltwater intrusion into coastal aquifers. These include lateral intrusion from the ocean; upward intrusion from deeper, more saline zones of a groundwater system; and downward intrusion from coastal waters. Saltwater contamination also has occurred along open boreholes and within abandoned, improperly constructed, or corroded wells that provide pathways for vertical migration across interconnected aquifers. Communities within the coastal regions of North America are taking actions to manage and prevent saltwater intrusion to ensure a sustainable source of groundwater for the future. These actions can be grouped broadly into scientific monitoring and assessment, engineering techniques, and regulatory approaches.  相似文献   

4.
Salinization in coastal aquifers is usually related to both seawater intrusion and water–rock interaction. The results of chemical and isotopic methods were combined to identify the origin and processes of groundwater salinization in Daguansha area of Beihai, southern China. The concentrations of the major ions that dominate in seawater (Cl?, Na+, Ca2+, Mg2+ and SO 4 2– ), as well as the isotopic content and ratios (2H, 18O, 87Sr/86Sr and 13C), suggest that the salinization occurring in the aquifer of the coastal plain is related to seawater and that the prevailing hydrochemical processes are evaporation, mixing, dissolution and ion exchange. For the unconfined aquifer, groundwater salinization has occurred in an area that is significantly influenced by land-based sea farming. The integrated impacts of seawater intrusion from the Beibuwan Gulf and infiltration of seawater from the culture ponds are identified in the shallowest confined aquifer (I) in the middle of the area (site BBW2). Leakage from this polluted confined aquifer causes the salinization of groundwater in the underlying confined aquifer (II). At the coastal monitoring site (BBW3), confined aquifer I and lower confined aquifer II are heavily contaminated by seawater intrusion. The weak connectivity between the upper aquifers, and the seaward movement of freshwater, prevents saltwater from encroaching the deepest confined aquifer (III). A conceptual model is presented. Above all, understanding of the origin and processes of groundwater salinization will provide essential information for the planning and sustainable management of groundwater resources in this region.  相似文献   

5.
Groundwater sustainability assessment in coastal aquifers   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
The present work investigates the response of shallow, coastal unconfined aquifers to anticipated overdraft conditions and climate change effect using numerical simulation. The groundwater flow model MODFLOW and variable density groundwater model SEAWAT are used for this investigation. The transmissivity and specific yield estimated from the existing database range from 10 to 810 m 2/day and 0.08% to 10.92% respectively. After successful calibration with Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency greater than 0.80, the values of horizontal hydraulic conductivity and specific yield of the unconfined aquifer were set in the range 1.85–61.90 m/day and 0.006–0.24 respectively. After validating the model, it is applied for forecasting the aquifer’s response to anticipated future scenarios of groundwater draft, recharge rate and sea level rise. The findings of the study illustrate that saltwater intrusion is intensified in the area adjoining the tidal rivers, rather than that due to the sea alone. Of all the scenarios simulated, the immense negative impact on groundwater quality emerges due to overdraft conditions and reduced recharge with the areal extent of seawater intrusion exceeding about 67% (TDS >1 kg/m 3). The study also arrives at the conclusion that, regional sea level rise of 1 mm/year has no impact on the groundwater dynamics of the aquifer.  相似文献   

6.

Three-dimensional transient groundwater flow and saltwater transport models were constructed to assess the impacts of groundwater abstraction and climate change on the coastal aquifer of Tra Vinh province (Vietnam). The groundwater flow model was calibrated with groundwater levels (2007–2016) measured in 13 observation wells. The saltwater transport model was compared with the spatial distribution of total dissolved solids. Model performance was evaluated by comparing observed and simulated groundwater levels. The projected rainfalls from two climate models (MIROC5 and CRISO Mk3.6) were subsequently used to simulate possible effects of climate changes. The simulation revealed that groundwater is currently depleted due to overabstraction. Towards the future, groundwater storage will continue to be depleted with the current abstraction regime, further worsening in the north due to saltwater intrusion from inland trapped saltwater and on the coast due to seawater intrusion. Notwithstanding, the impact from climate change may be limited, with the computed groundwater recharge from the two climate models revealing no significant change from 2017 to 2066. Three feasible mitigation scenarios were analyzed: (1) reduced groundwater abstraction by 25, 35 and 50%, (2) increased groundwater recharge by 1.5 and 2 times in the sand dunes through managed aquifer recharge (reduced abstraction will stop groundwater-level decline, while increased recharge will restore depleted storage), and (3) combining 50% abstraction reduction and 1.5 times recharge increase in sand dune areas. The results show that combined interventions of reducing abstraction and increasing recharge are necessary for sustainable groundwater resources development in Tra Vinh province.

  相似文献   

7.
Despite the broad impact and importance of saltwater intrusion in coastal aquifers, little research has been directed towards forecasting saltwater intrusion in areas where the source of saltwater is uncertain. Saline contamination in inland groundwater supplies is a concern for numerous communities in the southern US including the city of Deltona, Florida. Furthermore, conventional numerical tools for forecasting saltwater contamination are heavily dependent on reliable characterization of the physical characteristics of underlying aquifers, information that is often absent or challenging to obtain. To overcome these limitations, a reliable alternative data-driven model for forecasting salinity in a groundwater supply was developed for Deltona using the fast orthogonal search (FOS) method. FOS was applied on monthly water-demand data and corresponding chloride concentrations at water supply wells. Groundwater salinity measurements from Deltona water supply wells were applied to evaluate the forecasting capability and accuracy of the FOS model. Accurate and reliable groundwater salinity forecasting is necessary to support effective and sustainable coastal-water resource planning and management. The available (27) water supply wells for Deltona were randomly split into three test groups for the purposes of FOS model development and performance assessment. Based on four performance indices (RMSE, RSR, NSEC, and R), the FOS model proved to be a reliable and robust forecaster of groundwater salinity. FOS is relatively inexpensive to apply, is not based on rigorous physical characterization of the water supply aquifer, and yields reliable estimates of groundwater salinity in active water supply wells.  相似文献   

8.
Saltwater intrusion is generally related to seawater-level rise or induced intrusion due to excessive groundwater extraction in coastal aquifers. However, the hydrogeological heterogeneity of the subsurface plays an important role in (non-)intrusion as well. Local hydrogeological conditions for recharge and saltwater intrusion are studied in a coastal groundwater system in Vietnam where geological formations exhibit highly heterogeneous lithologies. A three-dimensional (3D) hydrostratigraphical solid model of the study area is constructed by way of a recursive classification procedure. The procedure includes a cluster analysis which uses as parameters geological formation, lithological composition, distribution depth and thickness of each lithologically distinctive drilling interval of 47 boreholes, to distinguish and map well-log intervals of similar lithological properties in different geological formations. A 3D hydrostratigraphical fence diagram is then generated from the constructed solid model and is used as a tool to evaluate recharge paths and saltwater intrusion to the groundwater system. Groundwater level and chemistry, and geophysical direct current (DC) resistivity measurements, are used to support the hydrostratigraphical model. Results of this research contribute to the explanation of why the aquifer system of the study area is almost uninfluenced by saltwater intrusion, which is otherwise relatively common in coastal aquifers of Vietnam.  相似文献   

9.
山东烟台夹河中、下游地区海水入侵三维水质数值模拟研究   总被引：17，自引：0，他引：17  
建立了三维变密度对流弥散水质数学模型来研究山东省烟台夹河中、下游地区咸淡水界面的运移规律。以四面体为基本离散单元 ,推导出三维海水入侵变密度水质模型求解的数值方法 ,其中水流方程求解时运用了迦辽金有限单元法。溶质运移方程求解时运用了欧拉拉格朗日混合方法 ,将对流项与弥散项分离 ,用传统迦辽金有限元方法求解弥散项 ;采用自适应MOC MMOC法求解对流项 ,以消除人工过量和数值弥散。根据地下水的潮汐效应观测信息 ,确定了含水系统的海底延伸边界 ;利用该地区地下水水头及水质长观资料识别了模型的水文地质参数 ,探讨了夹河地区海水入侵的原因 :认为夹河下游地区滨海地带地下水过量开采是造成烟台地区海水入侵的主要原因。此外 ,海水随潮定期地倒灌进入夹河 ,通过局部岩性天窗侵入淡水含水层加剧了沿夹河河床两侧地下水的咸化。同时还预测了几种情况下地下水的水质演化趋势 ,为防止和减轻夹河地区海水入侵提供合理、科学的依据。  相似文献   

10.
Dar es Salaam Quaternary coastal aquifer is a major source of water supply in Dar es Salaam City used for domestic, agricultural, and industrial uses. However, groundwater overdraft and contamination are the major problems affecting the aquifer system. This study aims to define the principal hydrogeochemical processes controlling groundwater quality in the coastal strip of Dar es Salaam and to investigate whether the threats of seawater intrusion and pollution are influencing groundwater quality. Major cations and anions analysed in 134 groundwater samples reveal that groundwater is mainly affected by four factors: dissolution of calcite and dolomite, weathering of silicate minerals, seawater intrusion due to aquifer overexploitation, and nitrate pollution mainly caused by the use of pit latrines and septic tanks. High enrichment of Na+ and Cl? near the coast gives an indication of seawater intrusion into the aquifer as also supported from the Na–Cl signature on the Piper diagram. The boreholes close to the coast have much higher Na/Cl molar ratios than the boreholes located further inland. The dissolution of calcite and dolomite in recharge areas results in Ca–HCO3 and Ca–Mg–HCO3 groundwater types. Further along flow paths, Ca2+ and Na+ ion exchange causes groundwater evolution to Na–HCO3 type. From the PHREEQC simulation model, it appears that groundwater is undersaturated to slightly oversaturated with respect to the calcite and dolomite minerals. The results of this study provide important information required for the protection of the aquifer system.  相似文献   

11.
Agua Amarga coastal aquifer in southern Spain has been the subject of chemical and physical measurements since May 2008 in order to monitor the potential effects of water withdrawal for the Alicante desalination plants on the salt marsh linked to the aquifer. Electrical conductivity contour maps and depth profiles, piezometric-head contour maps, hydrochemical analyses, isotopic characterizations and temperature depth profiles show not only the saltwater intrusion caused by water abstraction, but also the presence of a pronounced convective density-driven flow below the salt marsh; this flow was a consequence of saltwork activity in the early 1900s which generated saline groundwater contamination. The influence of a seawater recharge programme, carried out over the salt marsh in 2009–2010, on the diminishing groundwater salinity and the recovery of groundwater levels is also studied. Based on collected field data, the project provides a deeper understanding of how these successive anthropogenic interventions have modified flow and mixing processes in Agua Amarga aquifer.  相似文献   

12.
This study reports the impact of hydrological conditions on salinisation and nitrate concentrations of a coastal aquifer located at the Mediterranean Sea, southern Spain. Eighty-two samples of ground- and surface water taken during two extreme hydrological events between 1994 and 1996 at 25 different wells were evaluated with regard to hydrochemistry, focusing on nitrate concentrations and salinisation, which constitute the main hazard of this aquifer. Furthermore, hydrochemical data were analysed by principal component analysis (PCA). Additionally, in 2007 13 ground- and surface water samples taken at 12 different locations were analysed for stable isotopes of D/18O, and one sample was analysed for 15N. Since 1993 until present saltwater intrusion was observed only during dry hydrological conditions in 1994; it showed an irregular salinisation pattern probably related to locally elevated hydraulic conductivities. Nitrate concentrations increase significantly during wet hydrologic conditions owing to uptake of nitrate by rising groundwater. Stable isotopes of groundwater reveal an Atlantic origin of the precipitation that recharges the aquifer and a minor amount of groundwater recharge by the water coming from the La Viñuela reservoir, which is used for irrigation over the aquifer. 15N isotopes point to a considerable input of nitrates derived from organic fertilisers.  相似文献   

13.
Seawater intrusion in the Salalah plain aquifer,Oman   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  
Salalah is situated on a fresh water aquifer that is replenished during the annual monsoon season. The aquifer is the only source of water in Salalah city. The rainfall and mist precipitation in the Jabal AlQara recharges the plain with significant renewable fresh groundwater that has allowed agricultural and industrial development to occur. In Salalah city where groundwater has been used extensively since the early 1980s for agricultural, industrial and municipal purposes, the groundwater has been withdrawn from the aquifer more rapidly than it can be replenished by natural recharge. The heavy withdrawal of large quantities of the groundwater from the aquifer has led to the intrusion of seawater. Agricultural activities utilize over 70% of the groundwater. For the study of the saltwater intrusion, the area has been divided into four strips, A, B, C and D, on the basis of land-use in the area. Water samples were collected from 18 water wells. Chemical analysis of major ions and pollution parameters in the groundwater was carried out and compared to the previous observed values. The electrical conductivity and chloride concentrations were highest in the agricultural and residential strips and Garziz grass farm. Before 1992 the aquifer was in a steady state, but presently (2005) the groundwater quality in most of the agricultural and residential strips does not meet drinking water standards. In addition, model simulations were developed with the computer code MODFLOW and MT3DMS for solute transport to determine the movement of the freshwater/saltwater interface. The study proposes the protection of the groundwater in Salalah plain aquifer from further encroachment by artificial recharge with reclaimed water, preferably along the Salalah coastal agricultural strip. This scheme can also be applied to other regions with similar conditions.  相似文献   

14.
Sustainable groundwater extraction in coastal areas: a Belgian example   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
Water extractions in coastal areas have to deal with salt water intrusion and lowering of hydraulic heads in valuable ecosystems. Therefore, sustainable management of fresh water resources in these areas is crucial. This is illustrated here with two water extractions in the western Belgian coastal plain which extract groundwater from a phreatic dune aquifer. One water extraction faced problems with salt water intrusion, while lowering of hydraulic heads was an issue for both. To remedy the salt water intrusion, it was found that decreasing the extraction rate was the only solution. To offset this and to increase hydraulic heads around both extractions, it was decided to artificially recharge the aquifer of the second extraction with tertiary treated wastewater. By taking these interventions, the combined production capacity of the water extractions was increased with 56% whereas 27% less water was extracted from the dune aquifer itself. Extraction history and the effects of interventions are illustrated for both water extractions with water quality data and fresh water head observations. A more detailed insight in groundwater flow and fresh–salt water distribution in the aquifer is provided by simulating the evolution of the water extractions with a 3D density dependent groundwater flow model.  相似文献   

15.
Heat transport in a coastal groundwater flow system near De Panne, Belgium   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  
Temperature distribution and heat transport are studied in a coastal aquifer at De Panne in the western Belgian coastal plain. Field observations include temperature profiles of groundwater in the dunes and temperature measurements at the water table in a profile on the shore. Freshwater–saltwater distribution is known from previous studies. These are used to constrain a density-dependent model simulating the freshwater–saltwater distribution and heat transport using the SEAWAT code. The yearly fluctuation of the groundwater temperature in the phreatic aquifer under the dunes, shore and sea, and the influence of a tidal inlet in the dunes are simulated. The observations show that seawater temperature variations determine the temperature variations on the shore whereas atmospheric temperature changes determine this in the dunes. Yearly temperature fluctuations imposed at the water table propagate mainly vertically in the aquifer with only limited lateral influence. Heat transport is mainly convection dominated. Thickness of the surficial zone is determined by the amplitude of the groundwater temperature at the water table and the groundwater flow. Establishment of a tidal inlet in the dunes results in asymmetric temperature profiles under and in the vicinity of it.  相似文献   

16.
Recently, Ras Sudr (the delta of Wadi Sudr) area received a great amount of attention due to different development expansion activities directed towards this area. Although Quaternary aquifer is the most prospective aquifer in Ras Sudr area, it has not yet completely evaluated. The present work deals with the simulation of the Quaternary groundwater system using a three-dimensional groundwater flow model. MODFLOW code was applied for designing the model of the Ras Sudr area. This is to recognize the groundwater potential as well as exploitation plan of the most prospective aquifer in the area. The objectives were to determine the hydraulic parameters of the Quaternary aquifer, to estimate the recharge amount to the aquifer, and to determine the hydrochemistry of groundwater in the aquifer. During this work, available data has been collected and some field investigation has been carried out. Groundwater flow model has been simulated using pilot points’ method. SEAWAT has been also applied to simulate the variable-density flow and sea water intrusion from the west. It can be concluded that: (1) the direction of groundwater flow is from the east to the west, (2) the aquifer system attains a small range of log-transformed hydraulic conductivity. It ranges between 3.05 and 3.35 m/day, (3) groundwater would be exploited by about 6.4 × 106 m3/year, (4) the estimated recharge accounts for 3 × 106 m3/year, (5) an estimated subsurface flow from the east accounts for 2.7 × 106 m3/year, (6) the increase of total dissolved solids (TDS) most likely due to dilution of salts along the movement way of groundwater from recharge area to discharge area in addition to a contribution of sea water intrusion from the west. Moreover, it is worth to note that a part of TDS increase might be through up coning from underlying more saline Miocene sediments. It is recommended that: (1) any plan for increasing groundwater abstraction is unaffordable, (2) reliable estimates of groundwater abstraction should be done and (3) automatic well control system should be made.  相似文献   

17.
Overextraction of groundwater is widely occurring along the coast where good quality groundwater is at risk, due to urbanization, tourist development and intensive agriculture. The Sabratah area at the northern central part of Jifarah Plain, Northwest Libya, is a typical area where the contamination of the aquifer in the form of saltwater intrusion, gypsum/anhydrite dissolution and high nitrate concentrations is very developed. Fifty groundwater samples were collected from the study area and analysed for certain parameters that indicate salinization and pollution of the aquifer. The results demonstrate high values of the parameters electrical conductivity, sodium, potassium, magnesium, chloride and sulphate which can be attributed to seawater intrusion. The intensive extraction of groundwater from the aquifer reduces freshwater outflow to the sea, creates drawdown cones and lowering of the water table to as much as 30 m below mean sea level. Irrigation with nitrogen fertilizers and domestic sewage and movement of contaminants in areas of high hydraulic gradients within the drawdown cones probably are responsible for the high nitrate concentration towards the south of the region. Seawater intrusion and deep salt water upconing result in general high SO4 2? concentrations in groundwater near the shoreline, where localized SO4 2? anomalies are also due to the dissolution of sebkha deposits for few wells in the nearby sebkhas. Upstream, the increase in SO4 2? concentrations in the south is ascribed to the dissolution of gypsum at depth in the upper aquifer.  相似文献   

18.
Numerical simulation of sea water intrusion near Beihai, China   总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6  
 A leaky aquifer system occurs in the coastal plain near Beihai, China. Seawater intrusion into the confined aquifer took place along the northern coast. Chloride concentrations at some observation wells increased steadily from 1988 and were at their peak in 1993. A quasi-three-dimensional element model has been developed to simulate the spatial and temporal evolution of hydraulic heads and chloride concentrations of the groundwater near the northern coast. The simulation model was based on the transition zone approach, which requires simultaneous solution of the governing water flow and solute transport equations. An irregular grid of a quadrangle was used to discretize the flow domain. Various aquifer parameters were verified with the numerical model in order to obtain satisfactory matches between computed values and observed data from an investigation. Three pumpage schemes were designed to use the calibrated model for prediction of future changes in water levels and chloride concentrations in groundwater in the study area. Results show that seawater intrusion would worsen in the confined aquifer if the current rates of groundwater pumpage continue. The alternative, to eliminate pumpage in the intruded area and to moderate pumpage rates from water supply wells far from the seashore, may limit seawater intrusion significantly and is considered attractive in the area. Received: 27 September 1999 · Accepted: 27 December 1999  相似文献   

19.
基于SEAWAT-2000程序构建室内二维砂箱试验中咸水入侵数值模型,利用该模型分析了针对不同补给井井位、补给井流量、截渗墙位置及贯穿深度等多种情景下的咸淡水界面运移规律。二维砂箱实验模拟结果表明,当注水井位于盐水楔前锋附近,距咸水边界40 cm、砂箱顶部边界5 cm处时,注水井工程措施能达到最佳海水入侵驱退效果,回退系数达21.5%。当截渗墙布设于距咸水边界10 cm处,贯穿深度为35 cm时,截渗墙工程措施能达到最佳海水入侵驱退效果,回退系数达81.1%。在此基础上,结合实际场地条件,构建山东龙口地区滨海含水层中某典型二维剖面的海水入侵数值模型,探讨了不同截渗墙布设情景模式下海水入侵状况。模拟结果表明,当截渗墙布设于距海岸线600 m处,贯穿深度为18 m时,截渗墙工程措施达到最佳海水入侵驱退效果,回退系数达28.4%。研究结果揭示了补给井井位、补给井流量、截渗墙位置及贯穿深度等因素对咸淡水界面运移规律的影响,可为场地条件下滨海含水层海水入侵防治中的工程管理措施优化提供参考依据。  相似文献   

20.
Submarine groundwater discharges (SGD) are an important source of freshwater to coastal bays and estuaries in arid and semi-arid regions. Understanding groundwater flows to these ecologically sensitive bodies is important for coastal environmental sustainability. A management-oriented mathematical model capable of simulating the flow of groundwater into a coastal bay (i.e., submarine groundwater discharge) is developed here using the principles of quasi-steady-state flow and the existence of a sharp interface between the freshwater and the saltwater portions of the aquifer. The model is applied to the Baffin Bay in South Texas, a hypersaline coastal body with no major river discharges. Two global sensitivity approaches (the one-at-a time design; OAT) and the grid-based Monte Carlo sensitivity index are used to identify critical model inputs. The sensitivity of the model inputs to the Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) criterion is calculated making use of synoptic observed SGD measurements made over a period of one tidal cycle. The results of the study indicate that global sensitivity analysis methods are particularly sensitive to the number of model realizations. The ability of these techniques to screen out insensitive model inputs increased with increasing number of realizations. The variability in the identified inputs was more prominent with the OAT sensitivity methods than Monte Carlo-based techniques. In general, the aquifer properties (hydraulic conductivity and aquifer thickness) as well as fluid properties (seawater and fresh water densities) along with the antecedent SGD was noted to be the most sensitive parameters. This result indicates that the implementation of sharp-front coastal–aquifer models can be improved through better hydrogeologic characterization and measuring temperature and salinity data to improve density estimation. The global sensitivity methods also help identify reasonable values for model inputs which can serve as a starting point for advanced calibrations. The results, however, indicated that the model is likely over-parameterized with different input sets yielding similar NSE estimates. Based on these initial parameter estimates, the model was able to capture the general trend in the observed SGD but could not capture the dynamic associated with high water levels in the bay. Pre-calibration global sensitivity analysis is recommended in similar applications as it not only provides insights into future data collection efforts but can also help assess the likely success of model calibration. However, given the variability among the techniques, it is suggested that multiple global sensitivity methods be utilized.  相似文献   

设为首页 | 免责声明 | 关于勤云 | 加入收藏

Copyright©北京勤云科技发展有限公司  京ICP备09084417号