首页 | 本学科首页   官方微博 | 高级检索  
相似文献
 共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 46 毫秒
1.
A transient network model is applied to the Chesapeake Bay and its tributary estuaries. Calibration of the model is based on only three external parameters: a friction factor that is spatially described, and two global constants required to calibrate a dynamic dispersion relationship that depends on both the local salinity gradient and hydraulic conditions. The transient hydrodynamics and the transient salinity distribution of the Bay and its tributary estuaries are simulated for the period of one month and comparisons made between calculated and observed salinities.  相似文献   

2.
气候影响评价中统计降尺度若干问题的探讨   总被引：14，自引：0，他引：14       下载免费PDF全文
全球气候模式是目前研究未来气候变化的重要工具,然而其较低的空间分辨率使其难以被直接用于区域尺度的气候影响评价中,统计降尺度常常被用于弥补这一不足。对统计降尺度的3种主要方法:转化函数法,天气分型法和天气发生器法的最新研究进展进行了归纳;论述了统计降尺度中的各种不确定性;总结了统计降尺度在中国的发展和应用。统计降尺度与动力降尺度的比较和结合、极端事件的降尺度以及统计降尺度的不确定性将成为未来的主要发展方向。  相似文献   

3.
Representation of the subsurface light field is a crucial component of pelagic ecosystem and water quality models. Modeling the light field in estuaries is a particularly complicated problem due to the significant influence of high concentrations of dissolved and particulate matter that are derived from both terrestrial and estuarine sources. The goal of this study was to develop a relatively simple but effective way to model light attenuation variability in a turbuid estuary (Chesapeake Bay, United States) in a coupled physical-biological model. We adopted a simple, nonspectral empirical approach. Surface water quality data (salinity was used as a proxy of chromophoric dissolved organic matter [CDOM]) and light measurements from the Chesapeake Bay Program were used to determine the absorption coefficients in a linear attenuation model using regression methods. This model predicts Kc (specific attenuation due to phytoplankton/chlorophylla [chla]), Kt (specific attenuation due to total suspended solids), and Ks (a function of specific attenuation coefficients of CDOM in relation to salinity). The Bay-wide fitted relation between the light attenuation coefficient and water quality concentrations gives generally good estimates of total light attenuation, Kd. The direct inclusion of salinity in the relationship has one disadvantage: it can yield negative values for Kd at high salinities. We developed two separate models for two different salinity regimes. This approach, in addition to solving the negative Kd problem, also accounts for some changes in specific light absorption by chla, seston (nonphytoplankton particulate matter), and CDOM that apparently occur in different salinity regimes in Chesapeake Bay. The resulting model predicts the statistical characteristics (i.e., the mean and variance) of Kd quite accurately in most regions of Chesapeake Bay. We also discuss in this paper the feasibility and caveats of using Kd converted from Secchi depth in the empirical method.  相似文献   

4.
Long records of monthly salinity observations along the axis of Chesapeake Bay, Delaware Bay, and Long Island Sound are used to test a simple advection–dispersion model of the salt distribution in linearly tapered estuaries developed in a previous paper. We subdivide each estuary into three to five segments, each with linear taper allowing a distributed input of fresh water, and evaluate the dispersion in each segment. While Delaware Bay has weak dispersion and a classical sigmoidal salinity structure, Long Island Sound and Chesapeake Bay are more dispersive and have relatively small gradients in the central stretches. Long Island Sound is distinguished by having a net volume and salt flux out of its low-salinity end resulting in a smaller range of salinity and increasing axial gradients at its head rather than the usual asymptotic approach to zero salinity. Estimates of residence times based on model transport coefficients show that Long Island Sound has the most rapid response to fresh-water flux variations. It also has the largest amplitude cycle in river discharge fluctuation. In combination, these cause the large seasonal variation in the salinity structure relative to interannual variability in Long Island Sound as compared with Chesapeake Bay and Delaware Bay.  相似文献   

5.
Wang Lin  Chen Wen 《地球科学进展》2013,28(10):1144-1153
Global Climate Models (GCM) are the primary tools for studying past climate change and evaluating the projected future response of climate system to changing atmospheric composition. However, the state of art GCMs contain large biases in regional or local scales and are often characterized by low resolution which is too coarse to provide the regional scale information required for regional climate change impact assessment. A popular technique, Bias Correction and Spatial Disaggregation (BCSD), are widespreadly employed to improve the quality of the raw model output and downscaling throughout the world. Unfortunately, this method has not been applied in China. Consequently, the detailed principle and procedure of BCSD are introduced systematically in this study. Furthermore, the applicability of BCSD over China is also examined based on an ensemble of climate models from phase five of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), though the excellent performance of it has been validated for other parts of the world in many works. The result shows that BCSD is an effective, model independent approach to removing biases of model and downscaling. Finally, application scope of BCSD is discussed, and a suite of fine resolution multimodel climate projections over China is developed based on 34 climate models and two emissions scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) from CMIP5.  相似文献   

6.
Since its discovery in natural estuarine habitat of North Carolina in 1991, the widespread impact of the toxic dinoflagellate, Pfiesteria piscicida (gen. et sp. nov.), popularly called the “phantom” dinoflagellate, on North Carolina fish stocks has been established, yet little is known about its influence outside of North Carolina estuaries. Here, we document the presence of P. piscicida in Chesapeake Bay. A fish kill was observed after inoculating an aquarium containing mummichogs with sediment samples from Jenkins Creek, a brackish creek (salinity 11‰) of the Chesapeake Bay system. P. piscicida was the cause of the kill, as supported by morphological, physiological, and histological evidence. The appearance and behavior of the algae and symptoms associated with fish mortality were consistent with those previously observed in P. piscicida-associated aquaria fish kills in North Carolina. The discovery of P. piscicida in Chesapeake Bay supports the speculation that these toxic dinoflagellates have a dramatic and far-reaching impact on fish stocks in shallow, eutrophic estuaries along the eastern United States.  相似文献   

7.
Species richness declines to a minimum (artenminimum) in the oligohaline reach of estuaries and other large bodies of brackish water. To date, observations of this feature in temperate estuaries have been largely restricted to benthic macroinvertebrates. Five years of seine data collected during the summers of 1990–1995 in the major tidal tributaries to the lower Chesapeake Bay were examined to see if this feature arose in estuarine fish assemblages. Estimates of numerical species richness (alpha diversity) and rates of species turnover between sites (beta diversity) were generated via rarefaction and detrended correspondence analysis. Two spatial attributes of the distribution of littoral fish species along salinity gradients in the tributaries of the lower Chesapeake Bay were revealed: (1) a species richness depression in salinities of 8–10% and (2) a peak in the rate of species turnover associated with the tidal freshwater interface (salinities of 0–2%). Expression of the minimum is influenced by the physical length of the salinity gradient and the interaction between a species’ salinity preferences and tendency to make long excursions from favorable habitats.  相似文献   

8.
Global sea level rise (SLR) will significantly alter coastal landscapes through inundation and erosion of low-lying areas. Animals that display area fidelity and rely on fringing coastal habitats during multiple life stages, such as diamondback terrapins (Malaclemys terrapin Schoepff 1793), are likely to be particularly vulnerable to SLR-induced changes. We used a combination of empirical nest survey data and results from a regional SLR model to explore the long-term availability of known nesting locations and the modeled availability of fringing coastal habitats under multiple SLR scenarios for diamondback terrapin in the MD portion of Chesapeake Bay and the MD coastal bays. All SLR scenarios projected the rapid inundation of historically used nesting locations of diamondback terrapins with 25%–55% loss within the next 10 years and over 80% loss by the end of the century. Model trajectories of habitat losses or gains depended on habitat type and location. A key foraging habitat, brackish marsh, was projected to decline 6%–94%, with projections varying spatially and among scenarios. Despite predicted losses of extant beach habitats, future gains in beach habitat due to erosion and overwash were projected to reach 40%–600%. These results demonstrate the potential vulnerability of diamondback terrapins to SLR in Chesapeake Bay and underscore the possibility of compounding negative effects of SLR on animals whose habitat requirements differ among life stages. More broadly, this study highlights the vulnerability of species dependent on fringing coastal habitats and emphasizes the need for a long-term perspective for coastal development in the face of SLR.  相似文献   

9.
Chesapeake Bay supports a diverse assemblage of marine and freshwater species of submersed aquatic vegetation (SAV) whose broad distributions are generally constrained by salinity. An annual aerial SAV monitoring program and a bi-monthly to monthly water quality monitoring program have been conducted throughout Chesapeake Bay since 1984. We performed an analysis of SAV abundance and up to 22 environmental variables potentially influencing SAV growth and abundance (1984–2006). Historically, SAV abundance has changed dramatically in Chesapeake Bay, and since 1984, when SAV abundance was at historic low levels, SAV has exhibited complex changes including long-term (decadal) increases and decreases, as well as some large, single-year changes. Chesapeake Bay SAV was grouped into three broad-scale community-types based on salinity regime, each with their own distinct group of species, and detailed analyses were conducted on these three community-types as well as on seven distinct case-study areas spanning the three salinity regimes. Different trends in SAV abundance were evident in the different salinity regimes. SAV abundance has (a) continually increased in the low-salinity region; (b) increased initially in the medium-salinity region, followed by fluctuating abundances; and (c) increased initially in the high-salinity region, followed by a subsequent decline. In all areas, consistent negative correlations between measures of SAV abundance and nitrogen loads or concentrations suggest that meadows are responsive to changes in inputs of nitrogen. For smaller case-study areas, different trends in SAV abundance were also noted including correlations to water clarity in high-salinity case-study areas, but nitrogen was highly correlated in all areas. Current maximum SAV coverage for almost all areas remain below restoration targets, indicating that SAV abundance and associated ecosystem services are currently limited by continued poor water quality, and specifically high nutrient concentrations, within Chesapeake Bay. The nutrient reductions noted in some tributaries, which were highly correlated to increases in SAV abundance, suggest management activities have already contributed to SAV increases in some areas, but the strong negative correlation throughout the Chesapeake Bay between nitrogen and SAV abundance also suggests that further nutrient reductions will be necessary for SAV to attain or exceed restoration targets throughout the bay.  相似文献   

10.
Restoration of Florida’s Everglades requires scientifically supportable hydrologic targets. This study establishes a restoration baseline by developing a method to simulate hydrologic and salinity conditions prior to anthropogenic changes. The method couples paleoecologic data on long-term historic ecosystem conditions with statistical models derived from observed meteorologic and hydrologic data that provide seasonal and annual variation. Results indicate that pre-drainage freshwater levels and hydroperiods in major sloughs of the Everglades were about 0.15 m higher and two to four times greater, respectively, on average compared to today’s values. Pre-drainage freshwater delivered to the wetlands and estuaries is estimated to be 2.5 to four times greater than the modern-day flow, and the largest deficit is during the dry season. In Florida Bay, salinity has increased between 5.3 and 20.1 with the largest differences in the areas near freshwater outflow points. These results suggest that additional freshwater flows to the Everglades are needed for restoration of the freshwater marshes of the Everglades and estuarine environment of Florida Bay, particularly near the end of the dry season.  相似文献   

11.
The sea nettle shows variable seasonal infestation in the Chesapeake Bay. Public interest in the medusal population prompted an examination of the effect of climatic, hydrographic, and biological variables on such changes. Visual medusal counts since 1960 were regressed in a stepwise fashion against the suite of variables, to produce an abundance model which allows a reasonable prediction of the forthcoming summer’s infestation. Streamflow in the entire Chesapeake watershed for the months of January through June and the water temperature for May were most important. Lower streamflow apparently provides a salinity regime which supports the sessile stages early in the year and allows the survival and rapid growth of ephyrae in early summer. The water temperatures in May furnishes the trigger for strobilation at a propitious time.  相似文献   

12.
The seasonal abundance and spatial distribution of eggs and early larvae of the bay anchovy,Anchoa mitchilli, and the weakfish,Cynoscion regalis, were determined from plankton collections taken during 1971–1976 in the lower Chesapeake Bay. Eggs and larvae of the bay anchovy,Anchoa mitchilli, dominated the ichthyoplankton, making up 96% of the total eggs and 88% of all larvae taken. A comparison of egg and larval densities from the lower Chesapeake Bay to existing data from other East Coast estuaries suggested that Chesapeake Bay is a major center of spawning activity for this species.Anchoa mitchilli spawning commenced in May when mean water column temperatures approached 17°C and abruptly ceased after August. Eggs and early larvae presented a continuous distribution throughout the study area during these months. Eggs and larvae of several sciaenid species, especiallyC. regalis, ranked second in numerical abundance. Larval weakfish were consistently taken in late summer of each sampling year but peak abundance and distribution was observed in August 1971. Sciaenid eggs exhibited a distinct polyhaline distribution with greatest concentrations observed at the Chesapeake Bay entrance or along the Bay eastern margin. Analysis of sciaenid egg morphometry and larval occurrence suggested spawning activity of at least four species. Additional important species represented by eggs and/or larvae in the lower Chesapeake Bay wereHypsoblennius hentzi, Gobiosoma ginsburgi, Trinectes maculatus, Symphurus plagiusa andParalichthys dentatus with the remaining species occurring infrequently.  相似文献   

13.
Restoration of the Chesapeake Bay ecosystem has been a priority for residents and governments of the bay watershed for the past decade. One obstacle in the efforts to “save the bay” has been continuing nutrient enrichment from agricultural and sewer runoff. The attainability of a mandated 40% nutrient reduction goal has yet to be seen. Furthermore, disappearance of certain organisms may have had an adverse effect on the resilience of the ecosystem. The Eastern oyster (Crassostrea virginica), once abundant in Chesapeake Bay, was a vital part of the food web, processing excess phytoplankton and depositing materials on the bottom. Over harvesting and disease have decimated the native oyster population. The introduction of an exotic species, the Japanese oyster (Crassostrea gigas), may be a way to reestablish a robust oyster community in the bay. The literature on the role of bivalve molluscs in estuarine ecosystems shows that they are an essential part of healthy estuaries around the world. A comparison ofC. virginica andC. gigas in terms of temperature and salinity tolerance and resistance to disease shows thatC. virginica is ideally adapted to conditions in Chesapeake Bay, but it is unable to stave off the endemic diseases, whereasC. gigas is adapted to conditions in the lower bay only but is much less susceptible to the same diseases. We conclude that the potential introduction ofC. gigas to Chesapeake Bay would be limited by the Japanese species’ physiological requirements but that the revitalization of a bivalve population is imperative to the restoration of ecosystem function.  相似文献   

14.
The use of multiple stable isotopes in the study of trophic relationships in temperate estuaries has usually been limited to euhaline systems, in which phytoplankton, benthic microalgae, andSpartina alterniflora are major sources of organic matter for consumers. Within large estuaries such as Chesapeake Bay, however, many species of consumers are found in the upper mesohaline to oligohaline portions. These lower salinity wetlands have a greater abundance of macrophytes that use C3 photosynthesis to fix carbon, in addition toS. alterniflora, which fixes carbon via the C4 photosynthetic pathway. In a broad survey of the biota and sediments of a brackish tidal creek tributary to Chesapeake Bay, combined δ13C and δ34S measurements disclosed a balanced contribution to secondary production from phytoplankton, C3 macrophytes,Spartina sp., and benthic microalgae. Surface sediment δ13C suggested that the organic matter from C3 plants was derived both from allochthonous sources (terrestrial runoff) and from autochthonous production (marsh macrophytes). Unlike most estuarine systems studied to date, which are dominated by algae (phytoplankton and benthic microalgae) and C4 macrophytes, C3 plants are of greater importance in the diets of consumers in this low-salinity creek system.  相似文献   

15.
Hypoxia, periods of reduced dissolved oxygen concentrations, has been observed not only in the Chesapeake Bay but also in the deeper waters of the Virginia estuaries that are tributaries to the Chesapeake Bay. When water temperature exceeded 20°C, minimum oxygen concentrations were observed to be <50% of saturation concentrations in 75%, 50% and 2% of the surveys in the estuaries of the Rappahannock, York and James rivers, respectively. The observation that hypoxia rarely occurred in the James River is surprising, given the fact that it receives the greatest amount of wastewater. Analysis of the oxygen budgets in these estuaries indicates that the variations in the frequency, duration, and severity of hypoxia are related to the net movement of bottom waters. This relationship has significant implications for the management of water quality and marine fisheries.  相似文献   

16.
Moored instruments were used to make observations of near bottom currents, waves, temperature, salinity, and turbidity at shallow (3.5 m and 5.5 m depth) dredged sediment disposal sites in upper Chesapeake Bay during the winters of 1990 and 1991 to investigate time-varying characteristics of resuspension processes over extended periods. Resulting time series data show the variability of two components of the suspended sediment concentration field. Background suspended sediment concentrations varied inversely with salinity and in direct relation to Susquehanna River flow. Muddy bottom sediments were also resuspended locally by both tidal currents and wind-wave forcing, resulting in short-term increases and decreases in suspended concentration, with higher peak concentrations near the bottom. In both years, episodes of wave-forced resuspension dominated tidal resuspension on an individual event basis, exceeding most tidal resuspension peaks by a factor of 3 to 5. The winds that generated the waves responsible for the observed resuspension events were not optimal for wave generation, however. Application of a simple wind-wave model showed that much greater wave-forced resuspension than that observed might be generated under the proper conditions. The consolidated sediments investigated in 1990 were less susceptible to both tidal and wave-forced resuspension than the recently deposited sediments investigated in 1991. There was also some indication that wave-forced resuspension increased erodibility of the bottom sediments on a short-term basis. Wave-forced resuspension is implicated as an important part of sediment transport processes in much of Chesapeake Bay. Its role in deeper, narrower, and more tidally energetic estuaries is not as clear, and should be investigated on a case-by-case basis.  相似文献   

17.
Watershed landscape indicators of estuarine benthic condition   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
Do land use and cover characteristics of watersheds associated with small estuaries exhibit a strong enough signal to make landscape metrics useful for identifying degraded bottom communities? We tested this idea with 58 pairs of small estuaries (<260 km2) and watersheds in the U.S. Mid-Atlantic coastal plain (Delaware Bay to Chesapeake Bay). We considered 34 landscape metrics as potential explanatory variables and seven estuarine parameters as response variables. We developed three logistic regression models: one to calculate the probability of degraded benthic environmental quality (BEQ), as defined by chemical parameters, and two for the probability of degraded estuarine bottom communities, one using a benthic index (BI) and a second using the total number of bottom-dwelling species (TNBS, consisting of benthic macroinvertebrates and fishes). We evaluated the discriminatory power of the models with ROC (receiver operating characteristic) curves of sensitivity and specificity. All three models showed excellent discrimination of high and low values. A model using the sum of all human land uses and percent wetlands correctly classified BEQ in 86% of the cases; low benthic index and low total number of bottom species were each associated with degraded BEQ (p<0.01). The BI model used percent riparian urban, riparian wetlands, and agriculture on steep slopes (76% correct classification) and correctly predicted high-low benthic index of an independent data set 79% of the time (p<0.05). The TNBS model used percent wetlands, riparian wetlands, and riparian agriculture (74% correct classification). Watersheds with higher percentages of urban and agricultural land uses were associated with lower benthic environmental quality, benthic index, and biodiversity, whereas those with higher percentages of wetlands were associated with higher numbers. As human development of watersheds increases, statistical prediction rules developed from landscape metrics could be a cost-effective method to identify potentially threatened estuaries.  相似文献   

18.
Due to the unpredictable nature of intense storms and logistical constraints of sampling during storms, little is known about their immediate and long-term impacts on water quality in adjacent aquatic ecosystems. By combining targeted experiments with routine monitoring, we evaluated immediate impacts of two successive storm events on water quality and phytoplankton community response in the tidal James River and compared these findings to a non-storm year. The James River is a subestuary of the Chesapeake Bay and sampling was conducted before, during, and after Hurricane Irene and Tropical Storm (TS) Lee in 2011 and during the same time period (late summer/early fall) in 2012 when there were no storms. We collected and compiled data on nutrient and chlorophyll a concentrations, phytoplankton abundance, nitrogen uptake, primary productivity rates, and surface salinity, temperature, and turbidity in the meso- and polyhaline segments of the James River. Hurricane Irene introduced significant amounts of freshwater over the entire James River and Chesapeake Bay watersheds, while rainfall from TS Lee fell primarily on the tidal fresh region of the James River and headwaters of the Chesapeake Bay. Dinoflagellates dominated the algal community in the meso- and polyhaline segments prior to the storms in 2011, and a mixed diatom community emerged after the storms. In the mesohaline river segment, cyanobacteria abundance increased after TS Lee when salinities were depressed, likely due to washout from the oligohaline and tidal fresh regions of the river. In 2012, dinoflagellates dominated the community in both segments of the river during late summer but diatoms were also abundant and their biomass fluctuated throughout the summer and fall. Cyanobacteria were not present in either segment. Overall, we observed that the high-intensity rainfall from Hurricane Irene combined with high flushing in the headwaters as a result of TS Lee likely reduced primary productivity and altered community composition in the mesohaline segment but not the more estuarine-influenced polyhaline segment. Understanding the influence of high freshwater flow with a short residence time associated with storms is key to the planning and management of estuarine restoration as such disturbances are projected to increase as a result of climate change.  相似文献   

19.
Snowmelt run-off model (SRM) based on degree-day approach has been employed to evaluate the change in snow-cover depletion and corresponding streamflow under different projected climatic scenarios for an eastern Himalayan catchment in India. Nuranang catchment located at Tawang district of Arunachal Pradesh with an area of 52 km2 is selected for the present study with an elevation range of 3143–4946 m above mean sea level. Satellite images from October to June of the selected hydrological year 2006–2007 were procured from National Remote Sensing Centre, Hyderabad. Snow cover mapping is done using NDSI method. Based on long term meteorological data, temperature and precipitation data of selected hydrological year are normalized to represent present climatic condition. The projected temperature and precipitation data are downloaded from NCAR’s GIS data portal for different emission scenarios (SRES), viz., A1B, A2, B1; and IPCC commitment (non-SRES) scenario for different future years (2020, 2030, 2040 and 2050). Projected temperature and precipitation data are obtained at desired location by spatially interpolating the gridded data and then by statistical downscaling using linear regression. Snow depletion curves for all projected scenarios are generated for the study area and compared with conventional depletion curve for present climatic condition. Changes in cumulative snowmelt depth for different future years are highest under A1B and lowest under IPCC commitment, whereas A2 and B1 values are in-between A1B and IPCC commitment. Percentage increase in streamflow for different future years follows almost the same trend as change in precipitation from present climate under all projected climatic scenarios. Hence, it was concluded that for small catchments having seasonal snow cover, the total streamflow under projected climatic scenarios in future years will be primarily governed by the change in precipitation and not by change in snowmelt depth. Advancing of depletion curves for different future years are highest under A1B and lowest under IPCC commitment. A2 and B1 values are in-between A1B and IPCC commitment.  相似文献   

20.
A probabilistic mathematical model of bivalve suspension-feeding in estuaries is based on bivalve abundance, filtering capacities, and water mixing parameters. We applied the model to five regions of the upper Chesapeake Bay, ranging from shallow tidal fresh habitats to deep mesohaline habitats, for the years 1985 to 1987. Model results indicated that existing suspension-feeding bivalves could consume more than 50% of annual primary production in shallow freshwater and oligohaline reaches of the upper Chesapeake Bay and Potomac River. In deep mesohaline portions of the Chesapeake Bay and Potomac River, suspension-feeding bivalves could consume only 10% of primary production. Independent estimates of benthic carbon demand based on benthic production supported the model predictions. Hydrodynamics of large estuaries restrict the potential of benthic suspension-feeders to crop phytoplankton production because the width and depth of these estuaries limit transport of pelagic waters to the littoral flanks of the estuaries where benthic suspension-feeders can be abundant. Benthic suspension-feeders are dominant consumers in shallow segments of the Chesapeake Bay system, but are suppressed in deeper segments. The suppression is below that set by hydrodynamic limits, and may be due to periodic hypoxia or other factors. Our results suggest that the proposed use of suspension-feeding bivalves to improve water quality of large estuaries will be limited by the depth and width of the estuary, unless the bivalves are suspended in the water column by artificial means.  相似文献   

设为首页 | 免责声明 | 关于勤云 | 加入收藏

Copyright©北京勤云科技发展有限公司  京ICP备09084417号