共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 246 毫秒
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提出了以地下水各离子毫克当量百分数和总硬度的灰色ＧＭ（１，１）预测值进行各离子毫克含量（ｍｇ／Ｌ）的预测方法，结果表明，该预测方法比各离子毫克含量的ＧＭ（１，１）预测具有精度高且预测满足地下水电中性原理的特点。 相似文献
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本文应用灰色预测理认所建立的河流水质主要污染物溶解氧、高锰酸盐指数、氨氮、砷化物的普通ＧＭ（Ａ，１）和新息ＧＭ（１，１）预测模型均经三种方法检验合格，可利用所建立模型对未来时间的河流水质进行预测。 相似文献
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金矿资源量灰色建模预测法 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
本文应用灰色预测的理论，在给出了矿床定性预测－灰色关联分析预测法的基础上，提出了矿床资源量定量预测－灰色ＧＭ（１，１）拓扑预测法。理论分析和预测结果表明，该方法适用于矿床的定量预测，为预测金矿资源提供了科学依据。 相似文献
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本文以灰色系统理论为基础，建立了矿井地下水涌出的ＧＭ（１，１）动态预测模型，并用该模型进行了实际预测。 相似文献
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通过改进模型,用ＧＭ（１,Ｍ）模型可以作水力压裂的效果预测。尤其是,引入控制系统增加了ＧＭ（１,Ｍ）模型的灵活性,提高了精度,减少了计算量。采用这种方法作水力效果分析预测在川西浅层气藏取得到了很好的效果。 相似文献
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21世纪初期中国石油产量预测 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
本文在分析中国石油产量发展趋势的基础上，采用ＧＭ（１，１）模型和费尔哈斯模型对２１世纪初期的石油产量做了预测分析，并提出三点结论。 相似文献
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灰色系统理论在水文地质工程地质中的应用 总被引：8，自引：1，他引：8
ＧＭ（１，１）模型仅适用于服从指数规律的时间序列。在水文地质工程地质实践中形成的时间序列基本上不服从指数规律，因此不满足ＧＭ（１，１）模型应用的前提。 相似文献
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本文认为地下水多组分系统中各组分浓度的变化可用ＧＭ（１，１）模型描述，但其预测值必须满足溶液的电中性原理，因此，将溶液的电中性方程与ＧＭ（１，１）模型有机地结合起来建立了电中性条件下地下水水质灰色预测模型。 相似文献
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本文从灰色系统理论的基本原理出发，介绍了建立地下水水位灰色动态预测模型的方法。作为应用实例，为渭北煤田东部矿区建立了奥灰水水位ＧＭ（１，１）模型，对全区预测奥灰水水位及寻找奥灰地下水源有一定参考价值。 相似文献
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Musa Ataṣ Ahmet Emre Tekeli Senayi Dönmez Hesham Fouli 《Arabian Journal of Geosciences》2016,9(2):150
Basins located in Eastern Turkey are largely fed by snowmelt runoff during spring and early summer seasons. This study investigates the efficiency of artificial neural networks (ANNs) in snowmelt runoff generation. Although ANNs have been used for streamflow simulating/forecasting in the last two decades, using satellite-based snow-covered area (SCA) maps and meteorological observations as inputs to ANN provides a novel basis for estimating streamflow. The proposed methodology is implemented over Upper Euphrates River Basin in Eastern Turkey. SCA data was acquired from Interactive Multisensor Snow and Ice Mapping System (IMS) for an 8-year period from February 2004 to September 2011. Meteorological observations including daily cumulative precipitation and daily average air temperatures were obtained from Turkish State Meteorological Services. The simulation results are promising with coefficient of correlation varying from 0.67 to 0.98 among proposed models. Past days discharge was found to substantially improve the forecast accuracy. The paper presents the expected basin discharge for 2011 water year based on meteorological observations and SCA input. 相似文献
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毕节生态试验区是典型的喀斯特地区,人口密度大,生态环境脆弱,水土流失严重,耕地保护尤为重要。本文以毕节地区1998—2006年常用耕地面积统计数据为基础,分别利用灰色GM(1,1)模型和Verhulst模型对该喀斯特地区常用耕地面积变化进行预测。预测结果表明,GM(1,1)模型和Verhulst模型都揭示了毕节地区常用耕地面积在未来几年呈逐年递减的趋势。但是通过模拟精度验证,研究区耕地面积原始数据变化曲线呈S型,就灰色GM(1,1)模型与Verhulst模型模拟预测结果相比较,对于原始数据的模拟,GM(1,1)模型预测精度较高,而Verhulst模型更适合研究区未来几年耕地面积变化的预测。该研究结果可为区域合理利用土地资源、编制土地利用规划和耕地保护提供依据。 相似文献
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黑河流域上游融雪径流时间变化特征及成因分析 总被引：4，自引：3，他引：1
以黑河流域上游莺落峡水文站和札马什克水文站1959-2008年及祁连水文站1967-2008年的天然径流序列为基础数据, 通过计算水文站的流量质心时间来表示融雪径流时间, 研究了黑河流域上游融雪径流时间变化的特征. 结果表明: 莺落峡站和札马什克站自20世纪70年代起, 融雪径流时间表现为提前的趋势, 祁连站自20世纪80年代起融雪径流时间提前.野牛沟站和祁连站10月至次年4月降水量增加或4-7月气温升高, 会使得莺落峡站融雪径流时间提前, 札马什克站融雪径流时间的提前与野牛沟站10月至次年4月降水量的增加具有较高的相关性, 祁连站融雪径流的提前与祁连气象站4-7月气温升高的相关性较强.通过分析莺落峡站融雪径流时间与年径流及各季节径流的相关性, 可知如果融雪径流时间提前, 莺落峡站观测到的年径流量和夏秋季的径流量均会减少, 而同时冬春季的径流量会增加, 这对合理安排流域水资源配置和管理具有重要的指导意义. 相似文献
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干旱区融雪径流模拟的研究进展与展望 总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0
融雪径流模拟是干旱区水文水资源研究的热点问题,对干旱区春季融雪洪水风险评估和流域水资源管理至关重要。结合文献查询及资料分析,重点讨论了不同类型融雪径流模型的特征和发展情况,比较了不同融雪径流模型在干旱区一些典型河流的应用情况,并对其功能及优缺点进行了评估。结合对目前流域融雪径流模拟研究中存在的问题的分析,提出未来融雪径流模拟要注重提高数据分辨率的观点。借助多源遥感数据驱动获取更为精确的输入数据,在数据获取难度减小、精度提高的基础上山区融雪径流模拟将更多地以基于能量平衡的物理性模拟为主。模型的构建要充分考虑由气候变暖所带来的其它参数的变化,精确描述山区融雪过程,以提高对融雪径流的模拟精度。 相似文献
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Snow cover depletion under changed climate with the help of remote sensing and temperature data 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
Sanjay K. Jain L. N. Thakural R. D. Singh A. K. Lohani S. K. Mishra 《Natural Hazards》2011,58(3):891-904
Snow cover depletion curve (SDC) is one of the important variables in snow hydrological applications, and these curves are very much required for snowmelt runoff modeling in a snowfed catchment. Remote sensing is an important source of snow cover area which is used for preparation of SDC. Snow cover maps produced by Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellites are one of the best source of satellite-based snow cover area at a regular interval. Therefore, in this study, snow cover maps have been prepared for the years 2000?C2005 using MODIS data. The study area chosen viz. Beas basin up to Pandoh dam falls in western Himalayan region. For snowmelt runoff modeling, catchment is divided into number of elevation zones and SDC is required for each zone. When sufficient satellite data are not available due to cloud cover or due to some other reasons, then SDC can to be generated using temperature data. Under changed climate conditions also, modified SDC is required. Therefore, to have SDC under such situations, a relationship between snow cover area and cumulative mean temperature has been developed for each zone of the catchment. This procedure of having snow cover maps has two main purposes. First, it could potentially be used to generate snow cover maps when cloud-free satellite data are not available. Second, it can be used to generate snow-covered area in a new climate to see the impact of climate change on snowmelt runoff studies. 相似文献
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The simulation of snowmelt runoff in the ungauged Kaidu River Basin of TianShan Mountains,China 总被引：6，自引：1，他引：5
Snowmelt runoff is an important source of water resources in the arid mountain area. Modelling snowmelt runoff for cold regions
remains a problematic aspect because of the lack of data by gauges in large basins. In order to overcome the shortage of measured
data in the snowmelt runoff modelling, the temperature interpolation method would greatly help in improving the simulation
accuracy and describing the snow-hydrological behaviours of the study catchments. In this study, the temperature is the principal
variable used to estimate the importance of the melting of snow cover using the snowmelt runoff model. Five different temperature
interpolation attempts were performed over the Kaidu River Basin for the snowmelt season of the year 2000. Three temperature
inputs were taken directly from the individual weather stations in or near the study area, and the other two temperature inputs
were interpolated from the three weather stations. The results indicated that the temperature estimated from different methods
could result in quite a difference in runoffs in comparison with the observed ones. The simulation results using average temperature
from the three stations showed good results; the simulation run with the weighted average temperature generated a lower R
2 than the average temperature of three stations and using temperature directly adopted from three individual stations gave
various results. The weather stations used to perform the snowmelt runoff simulation should be located in the place which
is most representative of the mountain weather conditions, and the land cover and topography that those stations represented
also play an important role in the snowmelt runoff simulation. 相似文献
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气候变化对中国西北地区山区融雪径流的影响 总被引：22，自引：16，他引：22
选择祁连山黑河流域作为中国西北地区山区积雪流域的典型代表，分析了1956－1995年40a以来气候，积雪变化的状况和特点以及春季融雪径 波动趋势，利用融雪径流模型（Snowmelt Runoff Model-SRM)和卫星遥感数据模拟气温上升框架上的融雪径流变化情势，结果表明，中国西北地区山区的气候变化主要表现在年平均气温的缓慢上升而降水基本平稳，年内气温的上升幅度以1－2月份比较强烈，而3－6月融雪期的气温并没有大的变化，导致融雪期在时间尺度上的扩大，融雪径流呈慢增加趋势且受径流周期变化控制，融雪径流峰值的时间上前移。 相似文献