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1.
Regional climate models project significant changes in temperature and rainfall over the Greater Mekong Subregion over the twenty-first century. The potential impacts of climate change on areas affected by waterlogging and shallow saline groundwater in Northeast Thailand was investigated using the variable density groundwater model SEAWAT supported with recharge estimates derived from the hydrologic model HELP3. The focal area is the 154 km2 Huai Kamrian subwatershed. Changes in groundwater salinity and waterlogging areas at the middle and end of this century were predicted using the calibrated model. These predictions used the dynamically downscaled PRECIS regional climate change scenarios generated by ECHAM4 GCM A2 and B2 scenarios. Recharge rates are predicted to increase as a result of the higher intensity of rainfall. Shallow watertable areas are projected to increase by approximately 23 % from existing conditions during the middle of the century and up to 25 % by the end of this century. Although the precise rate and timing of climate change impacts are uncertain, all of the scenarios clearly point towards an extension in the area of waterlogging and area affected by shallow saline groundwater areas. Given that areas affected by shallow saline watertables are predicted to expand for both climate change scenarios as well as for the base case, it is concluded that climate change will have a significant impact on the area affected by salinity and waterlogging areas for both climate change scenarios. Evaluation of management options that explore the adaptation to saline environments and to means to reduce salt affected areas are required.  相似文献   

2.
Numerous modeling approaches are available to provide insight into the relationship between climate change and groundwater recharge. However, several aspects of how hydrological model choice and structure affect recharge predictions have not been fully explored, unlike the well-established variability of climate model chains—combination of global climate models (GCM) and regional climate models (RCM). Furthermore, the influence on predictions related to subsoil parameterization and the variability of observation data employed during calibration remain unclear. This paper compares and quantifies these different sources of uncertainty in a systematic way. The described numerical experiment is based on a heterogeneous two-dimensional reference model. Four simpler models were calibrated against the output of the reference model, and recharge predictions of both reference and simpler models were compared to evaluate the effect of model structure on climate-change impact studies. The results highlight that model simplification leads to different recharge rates under climate change, especially under extreme conditions, although the different models performed similarly under historical climate conditions. Extreme weather conditions lead to model bias in the predictions and therefore must be considered. Consequently, the chosen calibration strategy is important and, if possible, the calibration data set should include climatic extremes in order to minimise model bias introduced by the calibration. The results strongly suggest that ensembles of climate projections should be coupled with ensembles of hydrogeological models to produce credible predictions of future recharge and with the associated uncertainties.  相似文献   

3.
Effective information regarding environmental responses to future land-use and climate change scenarios provides useful support for decision making in land use planning, management and policies. This study developed an approach for modeling and examining the impacts of future land-use and climate change scenarios on streamflow, surface runoff and groundwater discharge using an empirical land-use change model, a watershed hydrological model based on various land use policies and climate change scenarios in an urbanizing watershed in Taiwan. The results of the study indicated that various demand and conversion policies had different levels of impact on hydrological components in all land-use scenarios in the study watershed. Climate changes were projected to have a greater impact in increasing surface runoff and reducing groundwater discharge than are land use changes. Additionally, the spatial distributions of land-use changes also influenced hydrological processes in both downstream and upstream areas, particularly in the downstream watershed. The impacts on hydrological components when considering both land use and climate changes exceeded those when only considering land use changes or climate changes, particularly on surface runoff and groundwater discharge. However, the proposed approach provided a useful source of information for assessing the responses of land use and hydrological processes to future land use and climate changes.  相似文献   

4.
A three-dimensional groundwater flow model was implemented to quantify the temporal variation of shallow groundwater levels in response to combined climate and water-diversion scenarios over the next 40 years (2011–2050) in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (Jing-Jin-Ji) Plain, China. Groundwater plays a key role in the water supply, but the Jing-Jin-Ji Plain is facing a water crisis. Groundwater levels have declined continuously over the last five decades (1961–2010) due to extensive pumping and climate change, which has resulted in decreased recharge. The implementation of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project (SNWDP) will provide an opportunity to restore the groundwater resources. The response of groundwater levels to combined climate and water-diversion scenarios has been quantified using a groundwater flow model. The impacts of climate change were based on the World Climate Research Programme’s (WCRP’s) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) multi-model dataset for future high (A2), medium (A1B), and low (B1) greenhouse gas scenarios; precipitation data from CMIP3 were applied in the model. The results show that climate change will slow the rate of decrease of the shallow groundwater levels under three climate-change scenarios over the next 40 years compared to the baseline scenario; however, the shallow groundwater levels will rise significantly (maximum of 6.71 m) when considering scenarios that combine climate change and restrictions on groundwater exploitation. Restrictions on groundwater exploitation for water resource management are imperative to control the decline of levels in the Jing-Jin-Ji area.  相似文献   

5.
This research addressed the separate and combined impacts of climate and land use change on streamflow, suspended sediment and water quality in the Kor River Basin, Southwest of Iran, using (BASINS–WinHSPF) model. The model was calibrated and validated for hydrology, sediment and water quality for the period 2003–2012. The model was run under two climate changes, two land use changes and four combined change scenarios for near-future period (2020–2049). The results revealed that projected climate change impacts include an increase in streamflow (maximum increases of 52% under RCP 2.6 in December and 170% under RCP 8.5). Projected sediment concentrations under climate change scenarios showed a monthly average decrease of 10%. For land use change scenarios, agricultural development scenario indicated an opposite direction of changes in orthophosphate (increases in all months with an average increase of 6% under agricultural development scenario), leading to the conclusion that land use change is the dominant factor in nutrient concentration changes. Combined impacts results indicated that streamflows in late fall and winter months increased while in summer and early fall decreased. Suspended sediment and orthophosphate concentrations were decreased in all months except for increases in suspended sediment concentrations in September and October and orthophosphate concentrations in late winter and early spring due to the impact of land use change scenarios.  相似文献   

6.
Esker aquifers are common groundwater bodies in Europe. Management of these aquifers should take account of the sustainability of groundwater-dependent ecosystems and land use in an integrated way. An unconfined esker aquifer in northern Finland was modelled with MODFLOW to determine how groundwater resources are impacted by the surrounding peatland drainage scheme and to simulate scenarios for possible drainage restoration. The impacts of groundwater abstraction and climate change were also simulated. A calibration-constrained Monte Carlo method was used to provide information on the uncertainties associated with model predictions. The results suggest that peatland drainage in the vicinity of eskers can have a significant role in lowering the water table, even though climate variability may mask these impacts. Drainage restoration by filling the ditches might have positive impacts on the aquifer water levels. Comparison of water-table changes caused by peatland drainage with the changes brought by water abstraction and climate variability helped to quantify impacts of different land-use scenarios and facilitated discussion with the local stakeholders. Based on this study, more attention should be devoted to peatland drainage schemes in integrated groundwater management of esker aquifers.  相似文献   

7.
This study simulates and quantifies the exchange and the pathways of deep and shallow groundwater flow and solute transport under different climate and permafrost conditions, considering the example field case of the coastal Forsmark catchment in Sweden. A number of simulation scenarios for different climate and permafrost condition combinations have been performed with the three-dimensional groundwater flow and transport model MIKE SHE. Results show generally decreasing vertical groundwater flow with depth, and smaller vertical flow under permafrost conditions than under unfrozen conditions. Also the overall pattern of both the vertical and the horizontal groundwater flow, and the water exchange between the deep and shallow groundwater systems, change dramatically in the presence of permafrost relative to unfrozen conditions. However, although the vertical groundwater flow decreases significantly in the presence of permafrost, there is still an exchange of water between the unfrozen groundwater system below the permafrost and the shallow groundwater in the active layer, via taliks. ‘Through taliks’ tend to prevail in areas that constitute groundwater discharge zones under unfrozen conditions, which then mostly shift to net recharge zones (through taliks with net downward flow) under permafrost conditions.  相似文献   

8.

Three-dimensional transient groundwater flow and saltwater transport models were constructed to assess the impacts of groundwater abstraction and climate change on the coastal aquifer of Tra Vinh province (Vietnam). The groundwater flow model was calibrated with groundwater levels (2007–2016) measured in 13 observation wells. The saltwater transport model was compared with the spatial distribution of total dissolved solids. Model performance was evaluated by comparing observed and simulated groundwater levels. The projected rainfalls from two climate models (MIROC5 and CRISO Mk3.6) were subsequently used to simulate possible effects of climate changes. The simulation revealed that groundwater is currently depleted due to overabstraction. Towards the future, groundwater storage will continue to be depleted with the current abstraction regime, further worsening in the north due to saltwater intrusion from inland trapped saltwater and on the coast due to seawater intrusion. Notwithstanding, the impact from climate change may be limited, with the computed groundwater recharge from the two climate models revealing no significant change from 2017 to 2066. Three feasible mitigation scenarios were analyzed: (1) reduced groundwater abstraction by 25, 35 and 50%, (2) increased groundwater recharge by 1.5 and 2 times in the sand dunes through managed aquifer recharge (reduced abstraction will stop groundwater-level decline, while increased recharge will restore depleted storage), and (3) combining 50% abstraction reduction and 1.5 times recharge increase in sand dune areas. The results show that combined interventions of reducing abstraction and increasing recharge are necessary for sustainable groundwater resources development in Tra Vinh province.

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9.
Sustainable management of groundwater resources is vital for development of areas at risk from water-resource over-exploitation. In northeast Thailand, the Phu Thok aquifer is an important water source, particularly in the Thaphra area, where increased groundwater withdrawals may result in water-level decline and saline-water upconing. Three-dimensional finite-difference flow models were developed with MODFLOW to predict the impacts of future pumping on hydraulic heads. Four scenarios of pumping and recharge were defined to evaluate the system response to future usage and climate conditions. Primary model simulations show that groundwater heads will continue to decrease by 4–12?m by the year 2040 at the center of the highly exploited area, under conditions of both increasing pumping and drought. To quantify predictive uncertainty in these estimates, in addition to the primary conceptual model, three alternative conceptual models were used in the simulation of sustainable yields. These alternative models show that, for this case study, a reasonable degree of uncertainty in hydrostratigraphic interpretation is more impactful than uncertainty in recharge distribution or boundary conditions. The uncertainty-analysis results strongly support addressing conceptual-model uncertainty in the practice of groundwater-management modeling. Doing so will better assist decision makers in selecting and implementing robust sustainable strategies.  相似文献   

10.
Recent projections of global climate change necessitate improved methodologies that quantify shoreline variability. Updated analyses of shoreline movement provide important information that can aid and inform likely intervention policies. This paper uses the Analyzing Moving Boundaries Using R (AMBUR) technique to evaluate shoreline change trends over the time period 1856 to 2015. Special emphasis was placed on recent rates of change, during the 1994 to 2015 period of active storm conditions. Small segments, on the order of tens of kilometers, along two sandy barrier island regions on Florida’s Gulf and Atlantic coasts were chosen for this study. The overall average rate of change over the 159-year period along Little St. George Island was ??0.62?±?0.12 m/year, with approximately 65% of shoreline segments eroding and 35% advancing. During periods of storm clustering (1994–2015), retreat rates along portions of this Gulf coast barrier accelerated to ??5.49?±?1.4 m/year. Along the northern portion of Merritt Island on Florida’s Atlantic coast, the overall mean rate of change was 0.22?±?0.08 m/year, indicative of a shoreline in a state of relative dynamic equilibrium. In direct contrast with the Gulf coast shoreline segment, the majority of transects (65%) evaluated along the oceanfront of Merritt Island over the long term displayed a seaward advance. Results indicate that episodes of clustered storm activity with fairly quick return intervals generally produce dramatic morphological alteration of the coast and can delay natural beach recovery. Additionally, the data show that tidal inlet dynamics, shoreline orientation, along with engineering projects, act over a variety of spatial and temporal scales to influence shoreline evolution. Further, the trends of shoreline movement observed in this study indicate that nearshore bathymetry—the presence of shoals—wields some influence on the behavior of local segments of the shoreline.  相似文献   

11.
Numerical groundwater models were used to assess groundwater sustainability on Jeju Island, South Korea, for various climate and groundwater withdrawal scenarios. Sustainability criteria included groundwater-level elevation, spring flows, and salinity. The latter was studied for the eastern sector of the island where saltwater intrusion is significant. Model results suggest that there is a need to revise the current estimate of sustainable yield of 1.77?×?106 m3/day. At the maximum extraction of 84  % of the sustainable yield, a 10-year drought scenario would decrease spring flows by 28 %, dry up 27 % of springs, and decrease hydraulic head by an island-wide average of 7 m. Head values are particularly sensitive to changes in recharge in the western parts of the island, due to the relatively low hydraulic conductivity of fractured volcanic aquifers and increased groundwater extraction for irrigation. Increases in salinity are highest under drought conditions around the current 2-m head contour line, with an estimated increase of up to 9 g/L under 100 % sustainable-yield use. The study lists recommendations towards improving the island’s management of potable groundwater resources. However, results should be treated with caution given the available data limitations and the simplifying assumptions of the numerical modeling approaches.  相似文献   

12.
The study on the stream-flow change associated with future climate change scenarios has a practical significance for local socio-economic development and eco-environmental protection. A study on the Jianzhuangcuan catchments was carried out to quantify the expected impact of climate change on the stream-flow using a multi-model ensemble approach. Climate change scenarios were developed by ensemble four Global Climate Models, which showed good performance for Jianzhuangcuan catchment. Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), a physically based distributed hydrological model, was used to investigate the impacts on stream-flow under climate change scenarios. The model was calibrated and validated using daily stream-flow records. The calibration and validation results showed that the SWAT model was able to simulate the daily stream-flow well, with Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency >0.83 for Yaoping Long station, for calibration and validation at daily and monthly scales. Their difference in simulating the stream-flow under future climate scenarios was also investigated. The results indicate a 0.6–0.9 °C increase in annual temperature and changes of 12.6–18.9 mm in seasonal precipitation corresponded to a change in stream-flow of about 0.62–3.67 for 2020 and 2030 scenarios. The impact of the climate change increased in both scenarios.  相似文献   

13.
The present study focuses on an assessment of the impact of future water demand on the hydrological regime under land use/land cover (LULC) and climate change scenarios. The impact has been quantified in terms of streamflow and groundwater recharge in the Gandherswari River basin, West Bengal, India. dynamic conversion of land use and its effects (Dyna-CLUE) and statistical downscaling model (SDSM) are used for quantifying the future LULC and climate change scenarios, respectively. Physical-based semi-distributed model Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is used for estimating future streamflow and spatiotemporally distributed groundwater recharge. Model calibration and validation have been performed using discharge data (1990–2016). The impacts of LULC and climate change on hydrological variables are evaluated with three scenarios (for the years 2030, 2050 and 2080). Temperature Vegetation Dyrness Index (TVDI) and evapotranspiration (ET) are considered for estimation of water-deficit conditions in the river basin. Exceedance probability and recurrence interval representation are considered for uncertainty analysis. The results show increased discharge in case of monsoon season and decreased discharge in case of the non-monsoon season for the years 2030 and 2050. However, a reverse trend is obtained for the year 2080. The overall increase in groundwater recharge is visible for all the years. This analysis provides valuable information for the irrigation water management framework.  相似文献   

14.
The impacts of climate change and human pressure in groundwater have been greatest threats facing small islands. This paper represents a case study of groundwater responses towards the climate change and human pressures in Manukan Island Malaysia. SEAWAT-2000 was used for the simulations of groundwater response in study area. Simulations of six scenarios representing climate change and human pressures showed changes in hydraulic heads and chloride concentrations. Reduction in pumping rate and an increase in recharge rate can alter the bad effects of overdrafts in Manukan Island. In general, reduction in pumping rate and an increase in recharge rate are capable to restore and protect the groundwater resources in Manukan Island. Thus, for groundwater management options in Manukan Island, scenario 2 is capable to lessen the seawater intrusion into the aquifer and sustain water resources on a long-term basis. The selection of scenario 6 is the preeminent option during wet season. The output of this study provides a foundation which can be used in other small islands of similar hydrogeological condition for the purpose of groundwater resources protection.  相似文献   

15.
Sustainable management of Mogan and Eymir Lakes in Central Turkey   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  
Mogan and Eymir Lakes, located 20 km south of Ankara in Central Turkey, are important aesthetic, recreational, and ecological resources. Dikilitas and Ikizce reservoirs, constructed on upstream surface waters, are two man-made structures in the basin encompassing an area of 985 km2. The purpose of this study is to quantify groundwater components in lakes’ budgets and to assess the potential impacts of upstream reservoirs on lake levels for sustainable management of the system. Available data have been used to develop a conceptual model of the system. A three-dimensional groundwater model, incorporating a lake component, has been developed for the system. The model has been calibrated successfully under transient conditions over a period of 6 years using monthly periods. The results show that groundwater inflows and outflows have the lowest contribution to the overall lakes’ budget. The model has been subsequently used to evaluate the impacts of upstream reservoirs. The results show that these reservoirs have a significant effect on lake stages but not on groundwater levels. A trade-off curve between the quantum of water released and the average stage in Lake Mogan has been developed to enhance decision makers’ ability for sustainable management of the system in the long term.  相似文献   

16.
Flood risk is expected to increase in many regions of the world in the next decades with rising flood losses as a consequence. First and foremost, it can be attributed to the expansion of settlement and industrial areas into flood plains and the resulting accumulation of assets. For a future-oriented and a more robust flood risk management, it is therefore of importance not only to estimate potential impacts of climate change on the flood hazard, but also to analyze the spatio-temporal dynamics of flood exposure due to land use changes. In this study, carried out in the Alpine Lech Valley in Tyrol (Austria), various land use scenarios until 2030 were developed by means of a spatially explicit land use model, national spatial planning scenarios and current spatial policies. The combination of the simulated land use patterns with different inundation scenarios enabled us to derive statements about possible future changes in flood-exposed built-up areas. The results indicate that the potential assets at risk depend very much on the selected socioeconomic scenario. The important conditions affecting the potential assets at risk that differ between the scenarios are the demand for new built-up areas as well as on the types of conversions allowed to provide the necessary areas at certain locations. The range of potential changes in flood-exposed residential areas varies from no further change in the most moderate scenario ‘Overall Risk’ to 119 % increase in the most extreme scenario ‘Overall Growth’ (under current spatial policy) and 159 % increase when disregarding current building restrictions.  相似文献   

17.
Changes in the climatic system introduce uncertainties in the supply and management of water resources. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC) predicts an increase of 2 to 4 °C over the next 100 years. Temperature increases will impact the hydrologic cycle by directly increasing the evaporation of surface water sources. Consequently, changes in precipitation will indirectly impact the flux and storage of water in surface and subsurface reservoirs(i.e., lakes, soil moisture, groundwater, etc.). In addition, increases in temperature contribute to increases in the sea level, which may lead to sea water intrusions, water quality deterioration, potable water shortages, etc. Climate change has direct impacts on the surface water and the control of storage in rivers, lakes and reservoirs, which indirectly controls the groundwater recharge process. The main and direct impact of climate change on groundwater is changes in the volume and distribution of groundwater recharge. The impact of climate change on groundwater resources requires reliable forecasting of changes in the major climatic variables and accurate estimations of groundwater recharge. A number of Global Climate Models(GCMs) are available for understanding climate and projecting climate change.These GCMs can be downscaled to a basin scale, and when they are coupled with relevant hydrological models, the output of these coupled models can be used to quantify the groundwater recharge, which will facilitate the adoption of appropriate adaptation strategies under the impact of climate change.  相似文献   

18.
In order to address the impacts of climate change, global multilateral institutions, development organizations, and national and regional science organizations are creating climate services – packages of useful climate information intended to help decision makers. This diffuse collection of actors and institutions suggest that producing climate services will help bridge gaps between climate scientists and decision-makers and will therefore help vulnerable countries and people manage the risks and optimize the impacts of climate change. This article examines this global science-policy ecosystem using the case of climate services produced by Australian science agencies for consumption in adaptation programming in the Pacific Island countries of Kiribati and Solomon Islands. Linking research on geographies of marketization and the neoliberalization of science, I demonstrate that within the climate service movement a focus on usefulness is paired with an emphasis on commercialization. As a result, this case shows the inherent tensions in the climate service model: first, a focus on competition and circulating service products at the expense of collaborative relationships; second, difficulties in negotiating uncertainty; and third contradictions between ‘objective’ and ‘entrepreneurial’ science. In each of these instances, the commercialized mechanisms through which climate services are governed, and the political economic circumstances within which they are produced, magnify rather than ameliorate gaps between science and policy.  相似文献   

19.
It is important to predict how groundwater levels in an aquifer will respond to various climate change scenarios to effectively plan for how groundwater resources will be used in the future. Due to the overuse of groundwater resources and the multi-year drought in the Kerdi-Shirazi plain in Iran, some land subsidence and a drop in groundwater levels has taken place, and without active management, further degradation of the groundwater resource is possible under predicted future climate change scenarios in the country. To determine the potential impacts of climate change on groundwater levels in the region, the groundwater model GMS was coupled with the atmospheric circulation model HADCM3 using scenarios A1B, A2 and B1 for the period 2016–2030. The results of the climate modelling suggest that the Kerdi-Shirazi plain will experience an increase in minimum temperature and maximum temperature of, respectively, between 0.03 and 0.47, and 0.32–0.45 °C for this time period. The results of the groundwater modelling suggest that water levels on the Kerdi-Shirazi plain will continue to decline over the forecast period with decreases of 34.51, 36.57 and 33.58 m being predicted, respectively, for climate scenarios A1B, A2 and B1. Consequently, groundwater resources in the Kerdi-Shirazi plain will urgently need active management to minimize the effects of ongoing water level decline and to prevent saltwater intrusion and desertification in the region.  相似文献   

20.
High and variable levels of salinity were investigated in an intermittent stream in a high-rainfall area (～800 mm/year) of the Mt. Lofty Ranges of South Australia. The groundwater system was found to have a local, upslope saline lens, referred to here as a groundwater salinity ‘hotspot’. Environmental tracer analyses (δ18O, δ2H, 87/86Sr, and major elements) of water from the intermittent stream, a nearby permanent stream, shallow and deep groundwater, and soil-water/runoff demonstrate seasonal groundwater input of very saline composition into the intermittent stream. This input results in large salinity increases of the stream water because the winter wet-season stream flow decreases during spring in this Mediterranean climate. Furthermore, strontium and water isotope analyses demonstrate: (1) the upslope-saline-groundwater zone (hotspot) mixes with the dominant groundwater system, (2) the intermittent-stream water is a mixture of soil-water/runoff and the upslope saline groundwater, and (3) the upslope-saline-groundwater zone results from the flushing of unsaturated-zone salts from the thick clayey regolith and soil which overlie the metamorphosed shale bedrock. The preferred theory on the origin of the upslope-saline-groundwater hotspot is land clearing of native deep-rooted woodland, followed by flushing of accumulated salts from the unsaturated zone due to increased recharge. This cause of elevated groundwater and surface-water salinity, if correct, could be widespread in Mt. Lofty Ranges areas, as well as other climatically and geologically similar areas with comparable hydrogeologic conditions.  相似文献   

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