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1.
Mitja Janža 《Natural Hazards》2013,67(3):1025-1043
According to climate change projections, the Alps will be one of the most affected regions in Europe. A basis for adaptation measures to climate changes is the quantification of the impact. This study investigates the impact of projected climate change on the hydrological cycle in the Upper So?a River basin. It is based on the use of climate model data as input for hydrological modelling. The climatic input data used were generated by a global climate model (IPCC A1B emission scenario) and downscaled for local use. Hydrological modelling was performed using the distributed hydrological model MIKE SHE. The simulated impact was quantified by comparing results of the hydrological modelling for the control period (1971–2000) and different scenario periods (2011–2040, 2041–2070, 2071–2100). The climate projections show an increase in the average temperature (+0.9, +2.3, +3.8°C) and negligible changes in average precipitation amounts in the scenario periods. More distinctive are changes in the temporal pattern of mean monthly values (up to +5.2°C and ±45% for precipitation), which result in warmer and wetter winters and hotter and drier summers in the scenario periods. The projected rise in temperature is reflected in the increased actual evapotranspiration, the reduction of snow amount and summer groundwater recharge. Changes of monthly and period average discharges follow the trends of the meteorological variables. Changes in precipitation patterns have a major influence on the projected hydrological cycle and are the most important source of uncertainty. Estimated extreme flows indicated increased hazards related to floods, especially in the near-future scenario period, while in the far future scenario period, distinctive drought conditions are projected.  相似文献   

2.
Quantifying 21st-century France climate change and related uncertainties   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
We tackle here the question of past and future climate change at sub-regional or country scale with the example of France. We assess France climate evolution during the 20th and 21st century as simulated by an exhaustive range of global climate simulations. We first show that the large observed warming of the last 30 years can be simulated only if anthropogenic forcings are taken into account. We also suggest that human influence could have made a substantial contribution to the observed 20th century multi-decadal temperature fluctuations. We then show that France averaged annual mean temperature at the end of the 21st century is projected to be on the order of 4.5 K warmer than in the early 20th century under the radiative concentration pathways 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario. Summer changes are greater than their winter counterpart (6 K versus 3.7 K). Near-future (2020–2049) changes are on the order of 2.1 K (with 2.6 K in summer and 1.8 K in winter). Model projections also suggest a substantial summer precipitation decrease (−0.6 mm/day), in particular over southern France, and a moderate winter increase, (0.3 mm/day), mostly over the northernmost part of France. Uncertainties about the amplitude of these precipitation changes remain large. We then quantify the various sources of uncertainty and study how their ranking varies with time. We also propose a physically-based metric approach to reduce model uncertainty and illustrate it with the case of summer temperature changes. Finally, timing and amplitude of France climate change in case of a global average 2-K warming are investigated. Aggressive mitigation pathways (such as RCP2.6) are absolutely required to avoid crossing or barely exceeding the 2-K global threshold. However, France climate change requiring adaptation measures is still to be expected even if we achieve to remain below the 2-K global target.  相似文献   

3.
In Taiwan, efficient climate‐driven strong erosion processes are the leading cause for low preservation of geomorphic landforms. Despite the absence of present‐day glaciers, glacial relicts have been reported in high altitude areas. These scarce landforms provide opportunities for reconstructing the timing of the last deglaciation in a region where glacial history is poorly documented. We have collected boulders and striated bedrocks in the Nanhutashan area and calculated surface exposure ages based on in‐situ produced 10Be concentrations. The oldest glacial remains, dated at 11.1 ± 3.3 ka, correspond to the last glacial advance. The Holocene is characterized by a continuous retreat of the ice‐cap until at least 7.2 ± 1.0 ka. Our results are in agreement with a scenario where changes of monsoon regimes lead to a strong reduction of the winter monsoon during the early Holocene, causing a decrease of snow supply and disequilibrium of the hydrological budget.  相似文献   

4.
Climate change can impact the hydrological processes of a watershed and may result in problems with future water supply for large sections of the population. Results from the FP5 PRUDENCE project suggest significant changes in temperature and precipitation over Europe. In this study, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was used to assess the potential impacts of climate change on groundwater recharge in the hydrological district of Galicia-Costa, Spain. Climate projections from two general circulation models and eight different regional climate models were used for the assessment and two climate-change scenarios were evaluated. Calibration and validation of the model were performed using a daily time-step in four representative catchments in the district. The effects on modeled mean annual groundwater recharge are small, partly due to the greater stomatal efficiency of plants in response to increased CO2 concentration. However, climate change strongly influences the temporal variability of modeled groundwater recharge. Recharge may concentrate in the winter season and dramatically decrease in the summer–autumn season. As a result, the dry-season duration may be increased on average by almost 30 % for the A2 emission scenario, exacerbating the current problems in water supply.  相似文献   

5.
The sustainability of water resources mainly depends on planning and management of land use; a small change in it may affect water yield largely, as both are linked through relevant hydrological processes, explicitly. However, human activities, especially a significant increase in population, in-migration and accelerated socio-economic activities, are constantly modifying the land use and land cover (LULC) pattern. The impact of such changes in LULC on the hydrological regime of a basin is of widespread concern and a great challenge to the water resource engineers. While studying these impacts, the issue that prevails is the selection of a hydrological model that may be able to accommodate spatial and temporal dynamics of the basin with higher accuracy. Therefore, in the present study, the capabilities of variable infiltration capacity hydrological model to hydrologically simulate the basin under varying LULC scenarios have been investigated. For the present analysis, the Pennar River Basin, Andhra Pradesh, which falls under a water scarce region in India, has been chosen. The water balance components such as runoff potential, evapotranspiration (ET) and baseflow of Pennar Basin have been simulated under different LULC scenarios to study the impact of change on hydrological regime of a basin. Majorly, increase in built-up (13.94% approx.) and decrease in deciduous forest cover (2.44%) are the significant changes observed in the basin during the last three decades. It was found that the impact of LULC change on hydrology is balancing out at basin scale (considering the entire basin, while routing the runoff at the basin outlet). Therefore, an analysis on spatial variation in each of the water balance components considered in the study was done at grid scale. It was observed that the impact of LULC is considerable spatially at grid level, and the maximum increase of 265 mm (1985–2005) and the decrease of 48 mm (1985–1995) in runoff generation at grid were estimated. On the contrary, ET component showed the maximum increase of 400 and decrease of 570 mm under different LULC change scenario. Similarly, in the base flow parameter, an increase of 70 mm and the decrease of 100 mm were observed. It was noticed that the upper basin is showing an increasing trend in almost all hydrological components as compared to the lower basin. Based on this basin scale study, it was concluded that change in the land cover alters the hydrology; however, it needs to be studied at finer spatial scale rather than the entire basin as a whole. The information like the spatial variation in hydrological components may be very useful for local authority and decision-makers to plan mitigation strategies accordingly.  相似文献   

6.
Leh and surrounding region of the Ladakh mountain range in the trans-Himalaya experienced multiple cloudbursts and associated flash floods during August 4–6, 2010. However, 12.8 mm/day rainfall recorded at the nearest meteorological station at Leh did not corroborate with the flood severity. For better understanding of this event, hydrological analysis and atmospheric modeling are carried out in tandem. Two small catchments (<3 km2) were studied along the stream continuum to assess the flood characteristics to identify the cloudburst impact zones. Peak flood discharges were estimated close to the head wall region and at the catchment outlet of the Leh town and the Sabu eastern tributary catchments. Storm runoff depth is estimated by developing a triangular hydrograph by using the known time base of the flood hydrograph. This triangular hydrographs have been transformed further into storm hydrographs to gain a better understanding of the storm duration by using the dimensionless hydrograph method at selected cross sections. Storm duration is estimated by using the relationship between time to peak and time of concentration of the catchment. The peak flood estimates ranged from 122(±35 %) m3/s for Leh town catchment (2.393 km2), 545(±35 %) m3/s for Sabu eastern tributary catchment (2.831 km2) to 1,070(±35 %) m3/sec for Sabu catchment (64.95 km2). To assess the atmospheric processes associated with this event, a triple nest simulation (27, 9 and 3 km) is performed using Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) modeling system. The simulation does show the evolution of the event from August 4 to 6, 2010. Observation constraints, orographic responses, etc. make such analysis complex at such scale. Independent estimate by the atmospheric process model and the hydrological method shows the storm depth of 70 mm and 91.8(±35 %) mm, respectively, in catchment scale. Hydrological evaluation further refined the spatial and temporal extents of the cloudbursts in the respective catchments with an estimated storm depth of 209(±35 %) mm in 11.9 min and 320(±35 %) in 8.8 min occurring in an area of 0.842–1.601 km2, respectively. This study shows that the insight developed on the cloudburst phenomena by the atmospheric and the hydrological modeling is hugely constrained by the spatial and temporal scales of data used for the analysis. Apart from this, study also highlighted the regular occurrence of cloudburst events over this region in the recent past. Most of such events go unreported due to lack of monitoring mechanisms in the region and weaken our ability to understand these events in complete perspective.  相似文献   

7.
In this paper, the application of a fully distributed hydrological model J2000 with limited hydrological data was investigated in an alpine small and glacierized catchment, the Qugaqie (55 km2 with 7.3% glacier area), in the central Tibetan Plateau (TP). The J2000 was examined to investigate the influence on model performance, as well as on data, parameters and sensitivities. The model was calibrated with time series of discharge at the basin outlet for the summers of 2006 and 2007 and validated for the summer of 2008 by examining multiple objective functions. The model coefficients of determination were 0.62 and 0.91 for the calibration periods in 2006 and 2007, respectively, and 0.56 for the validation period in 2008. Simulated discharge was generally less than the observed values for the calibration and validation periods. The sensitivity to alteration in meteorological parameter has revealed that a change in air temperature would cause a dramatic increase of discharge in the Qugaqie catchment. Hypothetical climate scenario experiments showed that the increase of air temperature by 1°C resulted in 14% increase in runoff, whereas 20% increase in precipitation caused 9% increase in runoff but 12% reduction in glacier melt.  相似文献   

8.
《Applied Geochemistry》2004,19(5):769-786
Heavy metal (Zn, Cd, Cu and Pb) mass balances in the Lot-Garonne fluvial system have been established for 1999 and 2000. The mean annual discharges of these years are close to the mean discharge of the previous decade. The estimated annual dissolved and particulate fluxes in this model watershed integrate daily input from diffuse and point sources, diffusive fluxes at the water/sediment interface, changes in the dissolved-particulate partition and changes in sediment stock. Cadmium, Zn, Cu and Pb entering the Gironde estuary via the Garonne River (11–14 t a−1 of Cd; 1330–1450 t a−1 of Zn; 126–214 t a−1 of Cu and 127–155 t a−1 of Pb) are mainly transported in the particulate phase and the major part (i.e. ∼74 to 96% for Cd, ∼60% for Zn, ∼50 to 60% for Cu and ∼80% for Pb) is transported by the Lot River. The main anthropogenic heavy metal point source is located in a small upstream watershed (Riou-Mort River) accounting for at least 47% (Cd), ∼20% (Zn), ∼4% (Cu) and ∼7 to 9% (Pb) of the total heavy metal inputs into the Garonne River, although it contributes only 1% of the discharge. Mass balances for 1999 suggest that under mean annual hydrologic conditions on the basin scale, the heavy metal budget of the Lot-Garonne fluvial system is balanced and that the stocks of Cd [200 t; Environ. Tech. 16 (1995) 1145] and Zn in the Lot River sediment are constant under mean discharge conditions. Heavy metal input by molecular diffusion at the sediment surface represents an important component of dissolved metal inputs into the system (e.g. 30% for Cu). Except for Cu, these dissolved inputs are totally removed from solution by SPM. Based on the generally constant Zn/Cd (∼50) concentration ratio in sediment cores from the polluted Lot River reaches and the sediment stock of Cd [200 t; Environ. Tech. 16 (1995) 1145], the present day Zn stock in the Lot River sediments has been estimated at about 10,000 t. In addition to the mobilization of river-bed sediment and associated heavy metals by intense floods, local human activities, including river-bed dredging, may strongly modify the heavy metal budget of the river system. In 2000, the dredging-related remobilization of polluted Lot River sediment released 2–6 t Cd. This additional Cd point source was estimated to account for 15–43% of the gross inputs into the Gironde Estuary.  相似文献   

9.
The eclogite type locality in the Eastern Alps (the Koralpe and Saualpe region) is the largest region in the Eastern Alps that preserves high‐pressure metamorphic rocks from the Eo‐Alpine orogenic event of the Cretaceous age. Thermobarometric data from the metapelitic gneisses in the region indicate that a metamorphic field gradient across the region can be divided into three parts. The northern part shows continuously increasing P–T from 10 ± 1.5 to 14 ± 1.5 kbar and 500 ± 68 to 700 ± 68 °C over a distance of 40 km. The continuous increase in P–T indicates that no major tectonic boundaries were active in this part during the Eo‐Alpine orogeny. Small discontinuities in the pressure gradient of the northern part can be correlated with more localized deformation. The central part exposes amphibolite–eclogite facies rocks with 15 ± 1.5 kbar and 700 ± 68 °C over about 20 km length. The southern part shows decreasing P–T conditions from 15 ± 1.5 to 10 ± 1.5 kbar and 700 ± 68 to 600 ± 63 °C over a distance of 10 km beyond which conditions remain roughly constant for the remainder of the profile. Overall, the field gradient is characterized by: (i) an increase in age with decreasing metamorphic grade and (ii) a T/P ratio that is lower than common metamorphic geotherms. The age–grade relationship is consistent with the timing relationship along piezothermal arrays predicted by simple models for regional metamorphism. However, the T/P ratio of the field gradient is inconsistent with such an interpretation. These inconsistencies indicate that the profile is not simply an obliquely exposed crustal section. We suggest that the exhumation of the transect is best explained with a two dimensional model of an extruding wedge, as has recently been suggested as a typical scenario for other large scale compressional orogens.  相似文献   

10.
Recent changes in land use practices, such as increase in orange orchards in central India, has put undue pressure on the groundwater resources. Excess withdrawal from the aquifers has resulted in groundwater table decline. The stage of groundwater development in some watersheds has reached 155.85 %, converting these into overexploited watersheds. In the present research paper, a groundwater flow model has been developed to evaluate the groundwater system in a basaltic terrain with Bazada formation. A conceptual model has been developed and calibrated for steady and transient states and the sensitivity analysis was carried out. Future predictions, for current scenario where present practices are continued and for scenario with 20 % reduction in groundwater draft have been made, to select the best strategy for mitigating the problem. The modeling results show that the decline in groundwater level in basaltic and Bazada unconfined aquifers will result into drying up (water level more than 15 m bgl) of 243 km2 area by 2020. To restore the groundwater level, it is simulated that the groundwater draft rate must be reduced by 20 % for next 10 years. It may be achieved by adopting groundwater management strategies, particularly for irrigation sector.  相似文献   

11.
The goal of this study was to highlight the occurrence of an additional proton-promoted weathering pathway of carbonate rocks in agricultural areas where N-fertilizers are extensively spread, and to estimate its consequences on riverine alkalinity and uptake of CO2 by weathering. We surveyed 25 small streams in the calcareous molassic Gascogne area located in the Garonne river basin (south-western France) that drain cultivated or forested catchments for their major element compositions during different hydrologic periods. Among these catchments, the Hay and the Montoussé, two experimental catchments, were monitored on a weekly basis. Studies in the literature from other small carbonate catchments in Europe were dissected in the same way. In areas of intensive agriculture, the molar ratio (Ca + Mg)/HCO3 in surface waters is significantly higher (0.7 on average) than in areas of low anthropogenic pressure (0.5). This corresponds to a decrease in riverine alkalinity, which can reach 80% during storm events. This relative loss of alkalinity correlates well with the content in surface waters. In cultivated areas, the contribution of atmospheric/soil CO2 to the total riverine alkalinity (CO2 ATM-SOIL/HCO3) is less than 50% (expected value for carbonate basins), and it decreases when the nitrate concentration increases. This loss of alkalinity can be attributed to the substitution of carbonic acid (natural weathering pathway) by protons produced by nitrification of N-fertilizers (anthropogenic weathering pathway) occurring in soils during carbonate dissolution. As a consequence of these processes, the alkalinity over the last 30 years shows a decreasing trend in the Save river (one of the main Garonne river tributaries, draining an agricultural catchment), while the nitrate and calcium plus magnesium contents are increasing.We estimated that the contribution of atmospheric/soil CO2 to riverine alkalinity decreased by about 7-17% on average for all the studied catchments. Using these values, the deficit of CO2 uptake can be estimated as up to 0.22-0.53 and 12-29 Tg1 yr−1 CO2 on a country scale (France) and a global scale, respectively. These losses represent up to 5.7-13.4% and only 1.6-3.8% of the total CO2 flux naturally consumed by carbonate dissolution, for France and on a global scale, respectively. Nevertheless, this loss of alkalinity relative to the Ca + Mg content relates to carbonate weathering by protons from N-fertilizers nitrification, which is a net source of CO2 for the atmosphere. This anthropogenic CO2 source is not negligible since it could reach 6-15% of CO2 uptake by natural silicate weathering and could consequently partly counterbalance this natural CO2 sink.  相似文献   

12.
基于长江上游流域82个气象站点的实测数据和国际耦合模式比较计划第5阶段(Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5,CMIP5)的2种排放情景下的8个气候模式1961～2099年的降水、气温数据,通过等距离累积分布函数法(Equidistance Cumulative Distribution Function Method,EDCDFm)进行气候模式的统计降尺度。在此基础上,构建0.5°×0.5°网格空间分辨率的可变下渗容量水文模型(Variable Infiltration Capacity,VIC),对历史流量进行模拟,并进一步模拟分析长江上游流域2006～2099年径流量、蒸散发的时空演变趋势。结果表明:VIC水文模型能够较好地模拟研究区的水文过程,从长江上游流域未来时期(2006～2099)主要水文过程变化趋势的预测来看,径流量变化趋势不明显、蒸散发呈增加趋势。此研究对于合理规划配置长江流域水资源及为气候影响评价和决策系统提供科技支撑具有重要意义。  相似文献   

13.
Estuaries located in the northern Gulf of Mexico are expected to experience reduced river discharge due to increasing demand for freshwater and predicted periods of declining precipitation. Changes in freshwater and nutrient input might impact estuarine higher trophic level productivity through changes in phytoplankton quantity and quality. Phytoplankton biomass and composition were examined in Apalachicola Bay, Florida during two summers of contrasting river discharge. The <20 μm autotrophs were the main component (92?±?3 %; n?=?14) of phytoplankton biomass in lower (<25 psu) salinity waters. In these lower salinity waters containing higher dissolved inorganic nutrients, phycocyanin containing cyanobacteria made the greatest contribution to phytoplankton biomass (69?±?3 %; n?=?14) followed by <20 μm eukaryotes (19?±?1 %; n?=?14), and phycoerythrin containing cyanobacteria (4?±?1 %; n?=?14). In waters with salinity from 25 to 35 psu that were located within or in close proximity to the estuary, >20 μm diatoms were an increasingly (20 to 70 %) larger component of phytoplankton biomass. Lower summer river discharges that lead to an areal contraction of lower (5–25 psu) salinity waters composed of higher phytoplankton biomass dominated by small (<20 μm) autotrophs will lead to a concomitant areal expansion of higher (>25 psu) salinity waters composed of relatively lower phytoplankton biomass and a higher percent contribution by >20 μm diatoms. A reduction in summer river discharge that leads to such a change in quantity and quality of estuarine phytoplankton available will result in a reduction in estuarine zooplankton productivity and possibly the productivity of higher trophic levels.  相似文献   

14.
《Earth》2006,74(3-4):269-307
Wildfire can lead to considerable hydrological and geomorphological change, both directly by weathering bedrock surfaces and changing soil structure and properties, and indirectly through the effects of changes to the soil and vegetation on hydrological and geomorphological processes. This review summarizes current knowledge and identifies research gaps focusing particularly on the contribution of research from the Mediterranean Basin, Australia and South Africa over the last two decades or so to the state of knowledge mostly built on research carried out in the USA.Wildfire-induced weathering rates have been reported to be high relative to other weathering processes in fire-prone terrain, possibly as much as one or two magnitudes higher than frost action, with important implications for cosmogenic-isotope dating of the length of rock exposure. Wildfire impacts on soil properties have been a major focus of interest over the last two decades. Fire usually reduces soil aggregate stability and can induce, enhance or destroy soil water repellency depending on the temperature reached and its duration. These changes have implications for infiltration, overland flow and rainsplash detachment. A large proportion of publications concerned with fire impacts have focused on post-fire soil erosion by water, particularly at small scales. These have shown elevated, sometimes extremely large post-fire losses before geomorphological stability is re-established. Soil losses per unit area are generally negatively related to measurement scale reflecting increased opportunities for sediment storage at larger scales. Over the last 20 years, there has been much improvement in the understanding of the forms, causes and timing of debris flow and landslide activity on burnt terrain. Advances in previously largely unreported processes (e.g. bio-transfer of sediment and wind erosion) have also been made.Post-fire hydrological effects have generally also been studied at small rather than large scales, with soil water repellency effects on infiltration and overland flow being a particular focus. At catchment scales, post-fire accentuated peakflow has received more attention than changes in total flow, reflecting easier measurement and the greater hazard posed by the former. Post-fire changes to stream channels occur over both short and long terms with complex feedback mechanisms, though research to date has been limited.Research gaps identified include the need to: (1) develop a fire severity index relevant to soil changes rather than to degree of biomass destruction; (2) isolate the hydrological and geomorphological impacts of fire-induced soil water repellency changes from other important post-fire changes (e.g. litter and vegetation destruction); (3) improve knowledge of the hydrological and geomorphological impacts of wildfire in a wider range of fire-prone terrain types; (4) solve important problems in the determination and analysis of hillslope and catchment sediment yields including poor knowledge about soil losses other than at small spatial and short temporal scales, the lack of a clear measure of the degradational significance of post-fire soil losses, and confusion arising from errors in and lack of scale context for many quoted post-fire soil erosion rates; and (5) increase the research effort into past and potential future hydrological and geomorphological changes resulting from wildfire.  相似文献   

15.
Clastic sediments deposited in caves and rock shelters bear peculiar sedimentological characteristics and have seldom been considered as a high‐resolution proxy record of climatic or environmental changes. The Romito Cave has its entrance at 275 m above sea level, about 25 km from the Tyrrhenian coast of Calabria, southern Italy. New archaeological excavation performed since 2000 has revealed a sedimentary succession spanning the record of Gravettian to Late Epigravettian cultures (Late Pleistocene). The present study focuses on the lower part (2.5 m thick) of the succession, where three main unconformity‐bounded stratigraphic units have been recognised (labelled RM1–3). Each unit consists of water‐lain deposits indicating high‐ to low‐competence flow, capped with anthropogenic deposits. The gradual deactivation and reactivation of the water drainage between 23 475 ± 190 and 16 250 ± 500 cal. a BP is correlated with regional precipitation changes due to the onset of dry climatic conditions of the Last Glacial Maximum. However, the deactivation of cave drainage after the deposition of unit RM3, around 15 400 ± 500 cal. a BP, deviates from the regional hydrological trend of progressively increasing water discharges and is attributed to the drainage cut‐off by probable cave wall collapses. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

16.
The geological mapping of the Garonne Dome had already shown an angular unconformity between the Upper Ordovician and the underlying series. This paper presents data from a nearby location, Planelh deth Pas Estret, southeast of the Garonne Dome, where the unconformity can be seen at outcrop scale. The unconformity angles amount to up to 20°. This unconformity is interpreted as a result of an extensional event of pre-Upper Ordovician age. To cite this article: J. Garc??a-Sansegundo et al., C. R. Geoscience 336 (2004).  相似文献   

17.
本文提出了一个水量(物质)平衡模型,估计可能的气候变化对冰川区水文的影响。以天山北坡乌鲁木齐河源1号冰川为例,假设温度升高1—4℃和相应的降水量变化为0,±10%,±20%组合成二十种气候变化情景进行计算。结果表明:目前的冰川融水量(Ri)是处在冰川退缩阶段的高值期,假设的二十种气候情景下的Ri均小于此值。因此,未来全球气候变暖,将会导致我国西北高寒山区以冰川融水补给为主的河川径流量逐渐减少。  相似文献   

18.
Turbidity is an important habitat component in estuaries for many fishes and affects a range of other ecological functions. Decadal timescale declines in turbidity have been observed in the San Francisco Estuary (Estuary), with the declines generally attributed to a reduction in sediment supply to the Estuary and changes to the erodible sediment pool in the Estuary. However, we analyzed hourly wind data from 1995 through 2015 and found statistically significant declines of 13 to 48% in wind speed around the Estuary. This study applied a 3-D hydrodynamic, wave, and sediment transport model to evaluate the effects of the observed decrease in wind speed on turbidity in the Estuary. The reduction in wind speed over the past 20 years was predicted to result in a decrease in turbidity of 14 to 55% in Suisun Bay from October through January. These results highlight that the observed declines in both wind speed and sediment supply over the past 20 years have resulted in reduced turbidity in the San Francisco Estuary from October through January. This decline in turbidity in Suisun Bay potentially has negative effects on habitat for fish like the endangered Delta Smelt which are more commonly caught in relatively turbid water.  相似文献   

19.
The Alpine belt in Corsica (France) is characterized by the occurrence of stacked tectonic slices derived from the Corsica/Europe continental margin, which outcrop between two weakly or non‐metamorphic tectonic domains: the ‘autochthonous’ domain of the Hercynian basement to the west and the Balagne Nappe (ophiolitic unit belonging to the ‘Nappes supérieures’) to the east. These slices, including basement rocks (Permian granitoids and their Palaeozoic host rocks), Late Carboniferous–Permian volcano‐sedimentary deposits, coarse‐grained polymict breccias (Volparone Breccia) and Middle Eocene siliciclastic turbidite deposits, were affected by a polyphase deformation history of Alpine age, associated with a well‐developed metamorphic recrystallization. This study provides new quantitative data about the peak of metamorphism and the retrograde P–T path in the Alpine Corsica: the tectonic slices of Volparone Breccia from the Balagne region (previously regarded as unmetamorphosed) were affected by peak metamorphism characterized by the phengite + chlorite + quartz ± albite assemblage. Using the chlorite‐phengite local equilibria method, peak metamorphic P–T conditions coherent with the low‐grade blueschist facies are estimated as 0.60 ± 0.15 GPa and 325 ± 20 °C. Moreover, the retrograde P–T path, characterized by a decrease of pressure and temperature, is evidence of the first stage of the exhumation path from the peak metamorphic conditions to greenschist facies conditions (0.35 ± 0.06 GPa and 315 ± 20 °C). The occurrence of metamorphic peak at high‐pressure/low‐temperature (HP/LT) conditions is evidence of the fact that these tectonic slices, derived from the Corsica/Europe continental margin, were deformed and metamorphosed in the Alpine subduction zone during their underplating at ～20 km of depth into the accretionary wedge and were subsequently juxtaposed against the metamorphic and non‐metamorphic oceanic units during a complex exhumation history.  相似文献   

20.
Evidence for climate change impacts on the hydro-climatology of Japan is plentiful. The objective of the present study was to evaluate the impacts of possible future climate change scenarios on the hydro-climatology of the upper Ishikari River basin, Hokkaido, Japan. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool was set up, calibrated, and validated for the hydrological modeling of the study area. The Statistical DownScaling Model version 4.2 was used to downscale the large-scale Hadley Centre Climate Model 3 Global Circulation Model A2 and B2 scenarios data into finer scale resolution. After model calibration and testing of the downscaling procedure, the SDSM-downscaled climate outputs were used as an input to run the calibrated SWAT model for the three future periods: 2030s (2020–2039), 2060s (2050–2069), and 2090s (2080–2099). The period 1981–2000 was taken as the baseline period against which comparison was made. Results showed that the average annual maximum temperature might increase by 1.80 and 2.01, 3.41 and 3.12, and 5.69 and 3.76 °C, the average annual minimum temperature might increase by 1.41 and 1.49, 2.60 and 2.34, and 4.20 and 2.93 °C, and the average annual precipitation might decrease by 5.78 and 8.08, 10.18 and 12.89, and 17.92 and 11.23% in 2030s, 2060s, and 2090s for A2a and B2a emission scenarios, respectively. The annual mean streamflow may increase for the all three future periods except the 2090s under the A2a scenario. Among them, the largest increase is possibly observed in the 2030s for A2a scenario, up to approximately 7.56%. Uncertainties were found within the GCM, the downscaling method, and the hydrological model itself, which were probably enlarged because only one single GCM (HaDCM3) was used in this study.  相似文献   

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