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1.
Özgür Kişi 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》2010,99(6):1471-1482
This paper proposes the application of neuro-wavelet technique for modeling daily suspended sediment–discharge relationship. The neuro-wavelet models are obtained by combining two methods, artificial neural networks (ANN) and discrete wavelet transform. The accuracy of the neuro-wavelet and the ANN models is compared with each other in suspended sediment load estimation. The daily streamflow and suspended sediment data from two stations on Tongue River in Montana are used as case studies. The comparison results reveal that the suggested model could increase the estimation accuracy. 相似文献
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为提高多种典型人工神经网络应用于降水预报的精度与稳定性并做出优选,对太湖流域湖西区丹徒、丹阳、金坛、溧阳、宜兴5站的年降水量时间序列建立基于组成成分分析的人工神经网络模型,并通过平均相对误差、平均绝对误差、均方根误差及合格率4项评价指标对比分析预报效果。该模型采用Mann-Kendall法、秩和检验法、谱分析法进行组成成分分析;建立BP网络、小波神经网络、RBF网络、GRNN网络及Elman网络模拟并预测随机成分,与确定性成分叠加得年降水量预报结果。在湖西区的研究结果表明,基于组成成分分析的人工神经网络模型的拟合及预测精度高于原始人工神经网络和线性自回归模型,GRNN网络的预测精度与稳定性高于其他4类神经网络。 相似文献
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Soil temperature has an important role in agricultural, hydrological, meteorological and climatological studies. In the present research, monthly mean soil temperature at four different depths (5, 10, 50 and 100 cm) was estimated using artificial neural networks (ANN), adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) and gene expression programming (GEP). The monthly mean soil temperature data of 31 stations over Iran were employed. In this process, the data of 21 and 10 stations were used for training and testing stages of used models, respectively. Furthermore, the geographical information including latitude, longitude and altitude as well as periodicity component (the number of months) was considered as inputs in the mentioned intelligent models. The results demonstrated that the ANN and ANFIS models had good performance in comparison with the GEP model. Nevertheless, the ANFIS generally performed better than ANN model. 相似文献
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Bagher Shirmohammadi Hamidreza Moradi Vahid Moosavi Majid Taie Semiromi Ali Zeinali 《Natural Hazards》2013,69(1):389-402
Drought is accounted as one of the most natural hazards. Studying on drought is important for designing and managing of water resources systems. This research is carried out to evaluate the ability of Wavelet-ANN and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) techniques for meteorological drought forecasting in southeastern part of East Azerbaijan province, Iran. The Wavelet-ANN and ANFIS models were first trained using the observed data recorded from 1952 to 1992 and then used to predict meteorological drought over the test period extending from 1992 to 2011. The performances of the different models were evaluated by comparing the corresponding values of root mean squared error coefficient of determination (R 2) and Nash–Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient. In this study, more than 1,000 model structures including artificial neural network (ANN), adaptive neural-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) and Wavelet-ANN models were tested in order to assess their ability to forecast the meteorological drought for one, two, and three time steps (6 months) ahead. It was demonstrated that wavelet transform can improve meteorological drought modeling. It was also shown that ANFIS models provided more accurate predictions than ANN models. This study confirmed that the optimum number of neurons in the hidden layer could not be always determined using specific formulas; hence, it should be determined using a trial-and-error method. Also, decomposition level in wavelet transform should be delineated according to the periodicity and seasonality of data series. The order of models with regard to their accuracy is as following: Wavelet-ANFIS, Wavelet-ANN, ANFIS, and ANN, respectively. To the best of our knowledge, no research has been published that explores coupling wavelet analysis with ANFIS for meteorological drought and no research has tested the efficiency of these models to forecast the meteorological drought in different time scales as of yet. 相似文献
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Sadeq Oleiwi Sulaiman Jalal Shiri Hamed Shiralizadeh Ozgur Kisi Zaher Mundher Yaseen 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2018,77(19):709
Establishing robust models for predicting precipitation processes can yield a significant aspect for many applications in water resource engineering and environmental prospective. In particular, understanding precipitation phenomena is crucial for managing the effects of flooding in watersheds. In this research, a regional precipitation pattern modeling was undertaken using three intelligent predictive models incorporating artificial neural network (ANN), support vector machine (SVM) and random forest (RF) methods. The modeling was carried out using monthly time scale precipitation information in a semi-arid environment located in Iraq. Twenty weather stations covering the entire region were used to construct the predictive models. At the initial stage, the region was divided into three climatic districts based on documented research. Initially, modeling was carried out for each district using historical information from regionally distributed meteorological stations for calibration. Subsequently, cross-station modeling was undertaken for each district using precipitation data from other districts. The study demonstrated that cross-station modeling was an effective means of predicting the spatial distribution of precipitation in watersheds with limited meteorological data. 相似文献
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Development of hybrid wavelet packet-statistical models (WP-SM) for landslide susceptibility mapping 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
Landslides are recognized as one of the most important natural hazards in many areas throughout the world. Producing landslide susceptibility maps have received particular attention from a wide range of scientists. The main objective of this study was to produce landslide susceptibility maps using hybrid wavelet packet-statistical models (WP-SM). In the first step, landslide susceptibility maps were produced using single artificial neural network (ANN), support vector machine (SVM), maximum entropy (MaxEnt), and generalized linear model (GLM). In the next step, the input maps were preprocessed using different mother wavelets in different levels. Then, the hybrid models were developed using the wavelet-based preprocessed maps. Results showed that the wavelet packet transform can be effectively used to produce precise landslide susceptibility maps. It was shown that wavelet packet transform significantly enhanced the ability of the single statistical models. The kappa coefficients were increased from 0.829 to 0.941, 0.846 to 0.978, 0.744 to 0.829, and 0.735 to 0.817 in hybrid ANN, SVM, MaxEnt, and GLM, respectively. The best wavelet transform was performed using bior1.5 with a three-level decomposition. It was also recognized that MaxEnt and GLM produced approximately poor results. However, SVM performed better than the other three models both in single and hybrid forms. ANN also outperformed MaxEnt and GLM models. Spatial distribution of the susceptible area is consistent with the observed landslide distribution pattern particularly in maps obtained from the hybrid models. The produced maps showed that the general pattern of susceptible area intensively followed the pattern of roads and sensitive geological formations. 相似文献
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This study proposes an application of two techniques of artificial intelligence (AI) for rainfall-runoff modeling: the artificial
neural networks (ANN) and the evolutionary computation (EC). Two different ANN techniques, the feed forward back propagation
(FFBP) and generalized regression neural network (GRNN) methods are compared with one EC method, Gene Expression Programming
(GEP) which is a new evolutionary algorithm that evolves computer programs. The daily hydrometeorological data of three rainfall
stations and one streamflow station for Juniata River Basin in Pennsylvania state of USA are taken into consideration in the
model development. Statistical parameters such as average, standard deviation, coefficient of variation, skewness, minimum
and maximum values, as well as criteria such as mean square error (MSE) and determination coefficient (R
2) are used to measure the performance of the models. The results indicate that the proposed genetic programming (GP) formulation
performs quite well compared to results obtained by ANNs and is quite practical for use. It is concluded from the results
that GEP can be proposed as an alternative to ANN models. 相似文献
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Delineation of landslide hazard areas on Penang Island, Malaysia, by using frequency ratio, logistic regression, and artificial neural network models 总被引：23，自引：5，他引：18
This paper summarizes findings of landslide hazard analysis on Penang Island, Malaysia, using frequency ratio, logistic regression, and artificial neural network models with the aid of GIS tools and remote sensing data. Landslide locations were identified and an inventory map was constructed by trained geomorphologists using photo-interpretation from archived aerial photographs supported by field surveys. A SPOT 5 satellite pan sharpened image acquired in January 2005 was used for land-cover classification supported by a topographic map. The above digitally processed images were subsequently combined in a GIS with ancillary data, for example topographical (slope, aspect, curvature, drainage), geological (litho types and lineaments), soil types, and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data, and used to construct a spatial database using GIS and image processing. Three landslide hazard maps were constructed on the basis of landslide inventories and thematic layers, using frequency ratio, logistic regression, and artificial neural network models. Further, each thematic layer’s weight was determined by the back-propagation training method and landslide hazard indices were calculated using the trained back-propagation weights. The results of the analysis were verified and compared using the landslide location data and the accuracy observed was 86.41, 89.59, and 83.55% for frequency ratio, logistic regression, and artificial neural network models, respectively. On the basis of the higher percentages of landslide bodies predicted in very highly hazardous and highly hazardous zones, the results obtained by use of the logistic regression model were slightly more accurate than those from the other models used for landslide hazard analysis. The results from the neural network model suggest the effect of topographic slope is the highest and most important factor with weightage value (1.0), which is more than twice that of the other factors, followed by the NDVI (0.52), and then precipitation (0.42). Further, the results revealed that distance from lineament has the lowest weightage, with a value of 0. This shows that in the study area, fault lines and structural features do not contribute much to landslide triggering. 相似文献
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Accurate and reliable prediction of shallow groundwater level is a critical component in water resources management. Two nonlinear models, WA–ANN method based on discrete wavelet transform (WA) and artificial neural network (ANN) and integrated time series (ITS) model, were developed to predict groundwater level fluctuations of a shallow coastal aquifer (Fujian Province, China). The two models were testified with the monitored groundwater level from 2000 to 2011. Two representative wells are selected with different locations within the study area. The error criteria were estimated using the coefficient of determination (R 2), Nash–Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient (E), and root-mean-square error (RMSE). The best model was determined based on the RMSE of prediction using independent test data set. The WA–ANN models were found to provide more accurate monthly average groundwater level forecasts compared to the ITS models. The results of the study indicate the potential of WA–ANN models in forecasting groundwater levels. It is recommended that additional studies explore this proposed method, which can be used in turn to facilitate the development and implementation of more effective and sustainable groundwater management strategies. 相似文献
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准确而可靠地预测地下水埋深对生态环境保护和水资源规划管理具有重要意义。针对吉林西部浅层地下水位动态变化的复杂性和非线性,提出了基于小波分析与人工神经网络相结合的预测方法小波神经网络(WA-ANN)模型。将研究区2002年1月2009年12月当月降水量、蒸发量、人工开采量和前月平均地下水埋深4个参数作为输入,当月平均地下水埋深作为输出,建立浅层地下水埋深预测模型,并与BP神经网络(BP-ANN)模型和自回归移动平均(ARIMA)模型进行比较,对比分析了三者的建模过程及其模拟精度。结果显示:相比两种ANN模型,ARIMA模型建模过程更为简单,计算效率更高;但WA-ANN模型的拟合精度高于BP-ANN和ARIMA模型,预测效果更好。总体来看,WA-ANN模型在浅层地下水埋深预测中具有一定的应用推广价值。 相似文献
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In this paper, we have utilized ANN (artificial neural network) modeling for the prediction of monthly rainfall in Mashhad synoptic station which is located in Iran. To achieve this black-box model, we have used monthly rainfall data from 1953 to 2003 for this synoptic station. First, the Hurst rescaled range statistical (R/S) analysis is used to evaluate the predictability of the collected data. Then, to extract the rainfall dynamic of this station using ANN modeling, a three-layer feed-forward perceptron network with back propagation algorithm is utilized. Using this ANN structure as a black-box model, we have realized the complex dynamics of rainfall through the past information of the system. The approach employs the gradient decent algorithm to train the network. Trying different parameters, two structures, M531 and M741, have been selected which give the best estimation performance. The performance statistical analysis of the obtained models shows with the best tuning of the developed monthly prediction model the correlation coefficient (R), root mean square error (RMSE), and mean absolute error (MAE) are 0.93, 0.99, and 6.02 mm, respectively, which confirms the effectiveness of the developed models. 相似文献
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Previous studies showed that the climatic processes drive the streamflow of the inland river in Northwest China. However, it is difficult to quantitatively assess the climatic-hydrological processes in the ungauged mountainous basins because of the scarce data. This research developed an integrated approach for multi-temporal scale modeling the climatic-hydrological processes in data-scarce mountain basins of Northwest China by combining downscaling method (DM), backpropagation artificial neural network (BPANN), and wavelet regression (WR). To validate the approach, we also simulated the climatic-hydrological processes at different temporal scales in a typical data-scarce mountain basin, the Kaidu River Basin in Northwest China. The main results are as follows: (i) the streamflow is related with regional climatic change as well as atmosphere-ocean variability, (ii) the BPANN model well simulated the nonlinear relationship between the streamflow and temperature and precipitation at the monthly temporal scale, and (iii) although the annual runoff (AR) appears to have fluctuations, there are significant correlations among AR, annual average temperature (AAT), annual precipitation (AP), and oscillation indices, which can be simulated by equations of WR at different temporal scales of years. 相似文献
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Use of artificial neural network for spatial rainfall analysis 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
TSANGARATOS PARASKEVAS ROZOS DIMITRIOS BENARDOS ANDREAS 《Journal of Earth System Science》2014,123(3):457-465
In the present study, the precipitation data measured at 23 rain gauge stations over the Achaia County, Greece, were used to estimate the spatial distribution of the mean annual precipitation values over a specific catchment area. The objective of this work was achieved by programming an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) that uses the feed-forward back-propagation algorithm as an alternative interpolating technique. A Geographic Information System (GIS) was utilized to process the data derived by the ANN and to create a continuous surface that represented the spatial mean annual precipitation distribution. The ANN introduced an optimization procedure that was implemented during training, adjusting the hidden number of neurons and the convergence of the ANN in order to select the best network architecture. The performance of the ANN was evaluated using three standard statistical evaluation criteria applied to the study area and showed good performance. The outcomes were also compared with the results obtained from a previous study in the area of research which used a linear regression analysis for the estimation of the mean annual precipitation values giving more accurate results. The information and knowledge gained from the present study could improve the accuracy of analysis concerning hydrology and hydrogeological models, ground water studies, flood related applications and climate analysis studies. 相似文献
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Storm surge prediction using an artificial neural network model and cluster analysis 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
In this study, an artificial neural network model was developed to predict storm surges in all Korean coastal regions, with
a particular focus on regional extension. The cluster neural network model (CL-NN) assessed each cluster using a cluster analysis
methodology. Agglomerative clustering was used to determine the optimal clustering of 21 stations, based on a centroid-linkage
method of hierarchical clustering. Finally, CL-NN was used to predict storm surges in cluster regions. In order to validate
model results, sea levels predicted by the CL-NN model were compared with results using conventional harmonic analysis and
the artificial neural network model in each region (NN). The values predicted by the NN and CL-NN models were closer to observed
data than values predicted using harmonic analysis. Data such as root mean square error and correlation coefficient varied
only slightly between CL-NN and NN model results. These findings demonstrate that cluster analysis and the CL-NN model can
be used to predict regional storm surges and may be used to develop a forecast system. 相似文献
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Modeling of a permeate flux of cross-flow membrane filtration of colloidal suspensions: A wavelet network approach 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
A. L. Wei G. M. Zeng Ph.D. G. H. Huang Ph.D. J. Liang X. D. Li Ph.D. 《International Journal of Environmental Science and Technology》2009,6(3):395-406
Although traditional artificial neural networks have been an attractive topic in modeling membrane filtration, lower efficiency by trial-and-error constructing and random initializing methods often accompanies neural networks. To improve traditional neural networks, the present research used the wavelet network, a special feedforward neural network with a single hidden layer supported by the wavelet theory. Prediction performance and efficiency of the proposed network were examined with a published experimental dataset of cross-flow membrane filtration. The dataset was divided into two parts: 62 samples for training data and 329 samples for testing data. Various combinations of transmembrane pressure, filtration time, ionic strength and zeta potential were used as inputs of the wavelet network so as to predict the permeate flux. Through the orthogonal least square alogorithm, an initial network with 12 hidden neurons was obtained which offered a normalized square root of mean square of 0.103 for the training data. The initial network led to a wavelet network model after training procedures with fast convergence within 30 epochs. Futher the wavelet network model accurately depicted the positive effects of either transmembrane pressure or zeta potential on permeate flux. The wavelet network also offered accurate predictions for the testing data, 96.4 % of which deviated the measured data within the ± 10 % relative error range. Moreover, comparisons indicated the wavelet network model produced better predictability than the back-forward backpropagation neural network and the multiple regression models. Thus the wavelet network approach could be employed successfully in modeling dynamic permeate flux in cross-flow membrane filtration. 相似文献
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Comparison of cokriging and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system models for suspended sediment load forecasting 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Mehdi Vafakhah 《Arabian Journal of Geosciences》2013,6(8):3003-3018
The present research was carried out by using artificial neural network (ANN), adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS), cokriging (CK) and ordinary kriging (OK) using the rainfall and streamflow data for suspended sediment load forecasting. For this reason, the time series of daily rainfall (mm), streamflow (m3/s), and suspended sediment load (tons/day) data were used from the Kojor forest watershed near the Caspian Sea between 28 October 2007 and 21 September 2010 (776 days). Root mean square error, efficiency coefficient, mean absolute error, and mean relative error statistics are used for evaluating the accuracy of the ANN, ANFIS, CK, and OK models. In the first part of the study, various combinations of current daily rainfall, streamflow and past daily rainfall, streamflow data are used as inputs to the neural network and neuro-fuzzy computing technique so as to estimate current suspended sediment. Also, the accuracy of the ANN and ANFIS models are compared together in suspended sediment load forecasting. Comparison results reveal that the ANFIS model provided better estimation than the ANN model. In the second part of the study, the ANN and ANFIS models are compared with OK and CK. The comparison results reveal that CK was a better estimation than the OK. The ANFIS and ANN models also provided better estimation than the OK and CK models. 相似文献
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Natural Hazards - In this study, new hybrid artificial neural network (ANN) models were used for predicting the groundwater resource index. The salp swarm algorithm (SSA), particle swarm... 相似文献