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1.
This study proposes a simplified 1-parameter SCS-CN model (M5) based on Mishra-Singh (2002) model and soil moisture accounting (SMA) procedure for surface runoff estimation and compares its performance with the existing SCS-CN method (SCS, 1956) (M1), Michel 1-P model (Water Resour Res 41:1-6, 2005) (M2), Sahu 1-P model (Hydrol Process 21:2872-2881, 2007) (M3), and Ajmal et al. model (J Hydrol 530:623-633, 2015) (M4) using large rainfall–runoff dataset of 48,763 events from123 USDA-ARS watersheds. The performance of models was evaluated using three statistical error indices such as Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), root mean square error (RMSE), percentage bias (PBIAS), and rank and grading system (RGS). Based on the results obtained, the models can be ranked as follows: M5?>?M4?>?M3?>?M1?>?M2, i.e., model M5 outperformed all the remaining four models M1–M4 and hence is recommended for field applications.  相似文献   

2.
Earth Science community depends on the exploration, analysis and reprocessing of high volumes of data as well as the modeling and simulation of complex coupled systems on multiple scales. The main aim of this article is to introduce a new hydrological modeling service based on the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) (Arnold et al. J American Water Resour Assoc 34(1), 73–89, 1998 ; Arnold and Fohrer Hydrol Process 19(3), 563–572, 2005) model using high efficiency, resource sharing and low cost cloud computing resources (Astsatryan et al. International Journal of Scientific & Engineering Research 1(1), 1130–1133, 2014). Such a Desktop as a Service (DaaS) approach allowing users to work from anywhere, and gives centralized desktop management and great performance. Within the Spatial Data Infrastructure (SDI) and cloud platform, the DaaS service gives secure access to the model and a centralized data storage to get a SWAT model input. The article illustrates the analyses of the implementation of the SWAT model for the Sotk watershed of Lake Sevan in Armenia (Sargsyan 2007).  相似文献   

3.
The authors (Lloret-Cabot et al. in Acta Geotech 1–23, 2017) applied the glasgow coupled model (GCM), originally proposed by Wheeler et al. (Géotechnique 53(1):41–54, 2003), to the simulation of several experimental tests that involve transition between saturated and unsaturated states. The authors show qualitatively, but not quantitatively, predictions of GCM for shrinkage during air drying of normally consolidated samples (Fig. 13) under low mechanical stress conditions, without presenting the material parameters. The discussers, who have worked with GCM to model multilayer deposition of tailings/soft soils (Qi in Numerical investigation for slope stability of expansive soils and large strain consolidation of soft soils. Doctoral dissertation, University of Ottawa, 2017; Qi et al. in J Geotech Geoenviron Eng 143(7):04017018, 2017, Qi et al. J Geotech Geoenviron Eng 143(7):04017019, 2017), have made quantitative predictions of similar cases. Satisfactory simulations of such cases using GCM are sensitive to the selection of the coupling parameters k1 and k2. By considering an alternative analytical form of GCM, an analytical procedure can be derived for calibrating the coupling parameters for problems involving virgin drying.  相似文献   

4.
The 2010 eruption of the Eyjafjallajökull volcano had a devastating effect on the European air traffic network, preventing air travel throughout most of Europe for 6 days (Oroian in ProEnvironment 3:5–8, 2010). The severity of the disruption was surprising as previous research suggests that this type of network should be tolerant to random hazard (Albert et al. in Nature 406(6794):378–382, 2000; Strogatz in Nature 410(6825):268–276, 2001). The source of this hazard tolerance lies in the degree distribution of the network which, for many real-world networks, has been shown to follow a power law (Albert et al. in Nature 401(6749):130–131, 1999; Albert et al. in Nature 406(6794):378–382, 2000). In this paper, we demonstrate that the ash cloud was unexpectedly disruptive because it was spatially coherent rather than uniformly random. We analyse the spatial dependence in air traffic networks and demonstrate how the combination of their geographical distribution and their network architectures jeopardises their inherent hazard tolerance.  相似文献   

5.
The garnet–orthopyroxene pairs are commonly found in the assemblages of basic granulites/charnockite and hence are suitable for estimating equilibrium temperature of these metamorphic rocks. At present, there are many calibrations of garnet–orthopyroxene thermometer that may confuse geologists in choosing a reliable thermometer. To test the accuracy of the garnet–orthopyroxene thermometers, we have applied 14 models formulated by a number of workers since 1980 to date. We have collated 51 samples from the literature all over the world, which has been processed through the “Gt-Opx.EXE” software. Based on the present study, we have identified a set of the best among all the 14 models which were considered under this comparative study. We have concluded that the five garnet–orthopyroxene (Gt-Opx) thermometers are the most valid and reliable of this kind of thermometer: Aranovich and Berman (Am Mineral 82:345–353, 1997), Raith et al. (Earth Sci 73:211–244, 1983), Harley (Contrib Mineral Petrol 86:359–373, 1984), Nimis and Grütter (Contrib Mineral Petrol 159:411–427, 2010), and Sen and Bhattacharya (Contrib Mineral Petrol 88:64–71, 1984).  相似文献   

6.
In this paper, we develop a multiscale model reduction technique that describes shale gas transport in fractured media. Due to the pore-scale heterogeneities and processes, we use upscaled models to describe the matrix. We follow our previous work (Akkutlu et al. Transp. Porous Media 107(1), 235–260, 2015), where we derived an upscaled model in the form of generalized nonlinear diffusion model to describe the effects of kerogen. To model the interaction between the matrix and the fractures, we use Generalized Multiscale Finite Element Method (Efendiev et al. J. Comput. Phys. 251, 116–135, 2013, 2015). In this approach, the matrix and the fracture interaction is modeled via local multiscale basis functions. In Efendiev et al. (2015), we developed the GMsFEM and applied for linear flows with horizontal or vertical fracture orientations aligned with a Cartesian fine grid. The approach in Efendiev et al. (2015) does not allow handling arbitrary fracture distributions. In this paper, we (1) consider arbitrary fracture distributions on an unstructured grid; (2) develop GMsFEM for nonlinear flows; and (3) develop online basis function strategies to adaptively improve the convergence. The number of multiscale basis functions in each coarse region represents the degrees of freedom needed to achieve a certain error threshold. Our approach is adaptive in a sense that the multiscale basis functions can be added in the regions of interest. Numerical results for two-dimensional problem are presented to demonstrate the efficiency of proposed approach.  相似文献   

7.
Rainfall-triggered landslides are the result of the complex water-related processes occurring in the atmosphere-soil-vegetation system. In this paper, we present a methodology to assess long-term slope stability from rainfall, soil, and vegetation parameters. Our approach couples the stochastic ecohydrological model developed by Rodríguez-Iturbe et al. (Proc R Soc A: Math Phys Eng Sci 455(1990): 3789–3805, 1999) and Laio et al. (Adv Water Resour 24(7):707–723, 2001b) and the unsaturated flow equation. In this way, the stochastic nature of the rainfall process propagates through the system, finally reaching the FS. Then, synthetic time series generated by numerical modeling are used to infer the FS statistical properties. The study of a hypothetical case study showed that the long-term slope stability is highly sensitive to the ratio of the amount of water that can be evapotranspirated and the amount of water the soil can infiltrate and less sensitive to the ratio of the saturated hydraulic coefficient and the long-term rainfall rate. A scaling analysis evidenced the existence of statistically significant (R2?≈?1) exponential relationships between ecohydrological dimensionless numbers and slope failure probability. The method presented here is a useful tool for landscape planning.  相似文献   

8.
A reply essay is presented on the rebuttal article by Parise (Environ Earth Sci 75(23):1476, 2016) suggesting that qanat is not a hazard. It is presented as a refutation on the paper by Abbasnejad et al. (Environ Earth Sci 75:1306, 2016) in which the authors have explained the etiology, the impacts and remedies of a qanat hazard in Iranian urban areas. Since the majority of qanats in Iranian urban areas are abandoned, useless and threatening, according to definition and in comparison with similar features introduced as a hazard, they are considered as a hazard too. However, this does not mean, and Abbasnejad et al. (in Environ Earth Sci 75:1306, 2016) have not claimed, that all qanats are hazardous. In addition, the authors who have studied qanats in Iranian urban areas, before Abbasnejad et al. (in Environ Earth Sci 75:1306, 2016), have also considered qanats as a hazard.  相似文献   

9.
The echinoid fauna from the Miocene sedimentary succession cropping out south Wadi Tweirig, and Wadi Hommath, south Gebel Ataqa, NW Gulf of Suez, has been examined with the aim to known their stratigraphic and paleogeographic distribution. The Miocene succession includes two formations: Sadat Formation, unconformably overlying the middle/upper Eocene rocks at the base and Hommath Formation at the top. Twenty-eight echinoid species (8 regular and 20 irregular) belonging to 18 genera, 13 families, and 7 orders have been identified, systematically described, and illustrated in this work. Eleven species are recorded for the first time from Egypt: ten of these came from the Hommath Formation (Schizechinus cf. serresii Desor (1856), Schizechinus pentagonus Kier 1972, Clypeaster cf. martini des Moulins 1837, Scutella checchiae occidentalis Desio 1934, Scutella melitensis Airaghi 1902, Echinodiscus desori Duncan and Sladen 1883, Echinolampas cf. zeitensis Fourtau 1920, Schizaster lovisatoi Cotteau 1895, Agassizia (Agassizia) powersi Kier 1972, and Hemipatagus ocellatus Defrance (1827)), and one from the Sadat Formation (Clypeaster campanulatus Schlotheim (1820)). The identified fauna shows a strong affinity with the Mediterranean bio-province.  相似文献   

10.
Frolova  N. I.  Larionov  V. I.  Bonnin  J.  Sushchev  S. P.  Ugarov  A. N.  Kozlov  M. A. 《Natural Hazards》2016,80(1):43-67
In 2012, the damage costs of floods in Russia amounted to about €300m, and these floods have caused nearly 200 fatalities (Kotlyakov et al. in Reg Res Rus 3(1):32–39, 2013). Risk assessment is one of the most pressing scientific topics in Russia, but most of the works are devoted to natural hazards assessment. The purpose of this work is to estimate the influence of hazardous hydrological phenomena on society. The field research was conducted in the Slavyansk municipal district in the Krasnodar region (the south-western part of Russia), which is a highly populated coastal territory with a high frequency of hazardous hydrological events. Modified methods of the Ministry of the Russian Federation for Affairs for Civil Defence, Emergencies and Elimination of Consequences of Natural Disasters (EMERCOM) were used for potential economic damage calculation. The paper did not only focus on direct, tangible risks, but also included social risk (i.e. risk to life and health). Social vulnerability has been calculated directly as a percentage of vulnerable people, estimated in opinion polls, while in many recent papers the social vulnerability index was calculated as a combination of several statistical indicators. The resulting percentage of vulnerable people was converted to numbers of potential victims. Finally, the social risk was expressed by financial indicators in terms of the cost of the value of statistical life lost (Mrozek and Taylor in J Policy Anal Manag 21(2):253–270, 2002; Viscusi and Aldy in J Risk Uncertain 27(1):5–76, 2003). Social risk can be underestimated in comparison with economic risk because of a low “value of life” in Russia (no life insurance, neglecting of basic safety rules, etc.) (Guriev in Myths of economics, Alpina Business Books, Moscow, 2009).  相似文献   

11.
Micro-mechanical failure analysis of wet granular matter   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  
We employ a novel fluid–particle model to study the shearing behavior of granular soils under different saturation levels, ranging from the dry material via the capillary bridge regime to higher saturation levels with percolating clusters. The full complexity of possible liquid morphologies Scheel et al. (Nat Mater 7(3):189–193, 2008. doi: 10.1038/nmat2117) is taken into account, implying the formation of isolated arbitrary-sized liquid clusters with individual Laplace pressures that evolve by liquid exchange via films on the grain surface Melnikov et al. (Phys Rev E 92(022):206, 2015. doi: 10.1103/PhysRevE.92.022206). Liquid clusters can grow in size, shrink, merge and split, depending on local conditions, changes of accessible liquid and the pore space morphology determined by the granular phase. This phase is represented by a discrete particle model based on contact dynamics Brendel et al. (Contact dynamics for beginners. Wiley-VCH, Weinheim, 2005. doi: 10.1002/352760362X.ch14), where capillary forces exerted from a liquid phase add to the motion of spherical particles. We study the macroscopic response of the system due to an external compression force at various liquid contents with the help of triaxial shear tests. Additionally, the change in liquid cluster distributions during the compression due to the deformation of the pore space is evaluated close to the critical load.  相似文献   

12.
The method of Koiwa and Ishioka (Philos Mag A 47:927–938, 1983) is used, with slight modification, to evaluate the correlation factor for vacancy-mediated diffusion of impurity atoms on the sublattice of dodecahedral sites in garnet, as a function of the relevant vacancy-jump frequencies. The required values of the lattice Green’s function were obtained from multiple Monte Carlo simulations in lattices of progressively larger size, extrapolated to an infinite lattice using a model that linearizes the dependence of the functional value on lattice size. As Online Resources, codes are provided that permit evaluation of the correlation factor for any chosen set of vacancy-jump frequencies, for implementation in either Mathematica ® or Matlab ®.  相似文献   

13.
Extensive laboratory model tests have been carried out on a strip footing resting over dry sand bed subjected to eccentrically inclined load to determine the ultimate bearing capacity (Patra et al. in Int J Geotech Eng 6(3):343–352, 2012a.  https://doi.org/10.3328/IJGE.2012.06.03.343-352, Int J Geotech Eng 6(4):507–514, b.  https://doi.org/10.3328/IJGE.2012.06.04.507-514). Similarly, lower bound calculations based on finite element method were performed to compute the bearing capacity of a strip footing subjected to an eccentric and inclined load lying over a cohesionless soil with varying embedment depth and relative density (Krabbenhoft et al. in Int J Geomech ASCE, 2014.  https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)GM.1943-5622.0000332). The load may be applied in two ways namely, towards the center line and away from the center line of the footing. Based on the results (both experimental and numerical analyses), a neural network model is developed to predict the reduction factor that will be used in computing the ultimate bearing capacity of an eccentrically inclined loaded strip footing. This reduction factor (RF) is the ratio of the ultimate bearing capacity of the footing subjected to an eccentrically inclined load to the ultimate bearing capacity of the footing subjected to a centric vertical load. A thorough sensitivity analysis is carried out to evaluate the parameters affecting the reduction factor. Based on the weights of the developed neural network model, a neural interpretation diagram is developed to find out whether the input parameters have direct or inverse effect on the output. A prediction model equation is framed with the trained weights of the neural network as the model parameters. The predictions from ANN, and those from other approaches, are compared with the results computed from both experimentation and FEM analyses. The ANN model results are found to be more accurate and well matched with other results.  相似文献   

14.
This study provides new insights into the relationship between radiation-dose-dependent structural damage due to natural U and Th impurities and the anisotropic mechanical properties (Poisson’s ratio, elastic modulus and hardness) of zircon. Natural zircon samples from Sri Lanka (see Muarakami et al. in Am Mineral 76:1510–1532, 1991) and synthetic samples, covering a dose range of zero up to 6.8 × 1018 α-decays/g, have been studied by nanoindentation. Measurements along the [100] crystallographic direction and calculations, based on elastic stiffness constants determined by Özkan (J Appl Phys 47:4772–4779, 1976), revealed a general radiation-induced decrease in stiffness (~54 %) and hardness (~48 %) and an increase in the Poisson’s ratio (~54 %) with increasing dose. Additional indentations on selected samples along the [001] allowed one to follow the amorphization process to the point that the mechanical properties are isotropic. This work shows that the radiation-dose-dependent changes of the mechanical properties of zircon can be directly correlated with the amorphous fraction as determined by previous investigations with local and global probes (Ríos et al. in J Phys Condens Matter 12:2401–2412, 2000a; Farnan and Salje in J Appl Phys 89:2084–2090, 2001; Zhang and Salje in J Phys Condens Matter 13:3057–3071, 2001). The excellent agreement, revealed by the different methods, indicates a large influence of structural and even local phenomena on the macroscopic mechanical properties. Therefore, this study indicates the importance of acquiring better knowledge about the mechanical long-term stability of radiation-damaged materials.  相似文献   

15.
The feasibility of geological carbon storage (GCS) sites depends on their capacity to retain safely \({\hbox {CO}_{2}}\). While deep saline formations and depleted gas/oil reservoirs are good candidates to sequester \({\hbox {CO}_{2}}\), gas/oil reservoirs typically have a limited storage capacity compared to ideal targets (\(\sim \) 1 Mt/year) considered for \({\hbox {CO}_{2}}\) disposal (Celia et al. in Water Resour Res 51(9):6846–6892, 2015. doi: 10.1002/2015WR017609). In this respect, deep saline aquifers are considered more appropriate formations for GCS, but present the disadvantage of having limited characterization data. In particular, information about the continuity of the overlying sealing formations (caprock) is often sparse if it exists at all. In this work, a study of \({\hbox {CO}_{2}}\) leakage is conducted for a candidate GCS site located in the Michigan Basin, whose sealing properties of the caprock are practically unknown. Quantification of uncertainty on \({\hbox {CO}_{2}}\) leakage from the storage formation is achieved through a Monte Carlo simulation approach, relying on the use of a computationally efficient semi-analytical leakage model based upon the solution derived by Nordbotten et al. (Environ Sci Technol 43(3):743–749, 2009), which assumes leakage occurs across “passive” wells intersecting caprock layers. A categorical indicator Kriging simulator is developed and implemented to represent the caprock sealing properties and model the permeability uncertainty. Binary fields of caprock permeability are generated and exhibit mostly low permeability, with sparsely-occurring local high permeability areas where brine and \({\hbox {CO}_{2}}\) may leak out of the storage formation. In addition, the feasibility of extending the use of the semi-analytical model to large-area leakage pathways is studied. This work advances a methodology for preliminary uncertainty quantification of \({\hbox {CO}_{2}}\) leakage at sites of GCS with little or no information on the sealing properties of the caprock. The implemented analysis shows that, for the considered site, \({\hbox {CO}_{2}}\) leakage may not be negligible even for relatively low (\(\sim \) 1%) probabilities of finding permeable inclusions in the caprock and highlights the importance of being able to characterize caprock sealing properties over large areas.  相似文献   

16.
Copper is a moderately incompatible chalcophile element. Its behavior is strongly controlled by sulfides. The speciation of sulfur is controlled by oxygen fugacity. Therefore, porphyry Cu deposits are usually oxidized (with oxygen fugacities > ΔFMQ +2) (Mungall 2002; Sun et al. 2015). The problem is that while most of the magmas at convergent margins are highly oxidized, porphyry Cu deposits are very rare, suggesting that high oxygen fugacity alone is not sufficient. Partial melting of mantle peridotite even at very high oxygen fugacities forms arc magmas with initial Cu contents too low to form porphyry Cu deposits directly (Lee et al. 2012; Wilkinson 2013). Here we show that partial melting of subducted young oceanic slabs at high oxygen fugacity (>ΔFMQ +2) may form magmas with initial Cu contents up to >500 ppm, favorable for porphyry mineralization. Pre-enrichment of Cu through sulfide saturation and accumulation is not necessarily beneficial to porphyry Cu mineralization. In contrast, re-melting of porphyritic hydrothermal sulfide associated with iron oxides may have major contributions to porphyry deposits. Thick overriding continental crust reduces the “leakage” of hydrothermal fluids, thereby promoting porphyry mineralization. Nevertheless, it is also more difficult for ore forming fluids to penetrate the thick continental crust to reach the depths of 2–4 km where porphyry deposits form.  相似文献   

17.
Impacts of climate change have been observed in natural systems and are expected to intensify in future decades (IPCC in Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPPC, Geneva, 2014). Governments are seeking to establish adaptive measures for minimizing the effects of climate change on vulnerable citizen groups, economic sectors and critical infrastructure (Adger et al. in Global Environ Change 15(2):77–86, 2005. doi: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2004.12.005; Smit and Wandel in Global Environ Change 16(3):282–292, 2006. doi: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2006.03.008). Coastal areas are particularly vulnerable to changing conditions due to rising sea levels and storm event intensification that produce new flood exposures (Richards and Daigle in Government of Prince Edward Island, Halifax, Nova Scotia, 2011 http://www.gov.pe.ca/photos/original/ccscenarios.pdf). However, communities oftentimes lack access to locally-relevant climate change information that can support adaptation planning. This research introduces the use of a Geoweb tool for supporting local climate change adaptation efforts in coastal Canadian communities. The Geoweb tool (called “AdaptNS”) is a web-based visualization tool that displays interactive flood exposure maps generated using local climate change projections of sea level rise and storm surge impacts between the years 2000 and 2100. AdaptNS includes participatory features that allow users to identify and share specific locations to protect against present and future coastal flood events. By soliciting feedback from community members, AdaptNS is shown to support local adaptation through the provision of flood exposure visuals, as a platform for identifying adaptation priorities, and as an avenue to communicate local risks to external entities that could facilitate local adaptation initiatives (e.g. upper levels of government). Future Geoweb research directions include improving the visualization of climate change projection uncertainties, the expansion of informational and participation capabilities, and understanding the potential for long-term adoption of Geoweb tools in adaptation decision-making.  相似文献   

18.
Wang et al. (Contrib Mineral Petrol 171:62, 2016a) present data on composition of xenolith from Southern Tibet and conclude that ulrapotassic melts from the region formed by melting mantle, and complex interaction with a crustal component. In this discussion we demonstrate that numerous observations presented by Wang et al. (2016a) can be explained by partial melting of crust followed by interaction between that melt and the mantle. We show that this model can explain the variability of magmas in such suits without evoking occurrence of coincidental, unrelated events. Moreover we demonstrate that our model of a crustal origin of the proto-shoshonite melts is now supported by independent lines of evidence such as geochemistry of restites after high- and ultrahigh- pressure melting and melt inclusion studies.  相似文献   

19.
A new taxon, ?Crassodontidanus gen. nov. of Hexanchiformes (cow sharks) from the Jurassic of Germany is described. It is characterized by peculiar teeth combining apomorphic (serrated mesial cutting edge of the main cusp) and plesiomorphic features (deep root with convex mesial and distal margins in labial and lingual views; protruding lingual root bulge). This character combination readily distinguishes members of the new taxon from all other known extant (Heptranchias, Hexanchus, Notorynchus) and extinct (?Gladioserratus, ?Notidanodon, ?Notidanoides, ?Pachyhexanchus, ?Paraheptranchias, ?Weltonia) hexanchiforms. Currently, two species, ?C. serratus (type species; Late Jurassic, Late Kimmeridgian of Nusplingen, South Germany) and ?C. wiedenrothi (Early Jurassic, Early Pliensbachian of Gretenberg (Hanover), North Germany) are assigned to this taxon. ?Crassodontidanus gen. nov. is member of ?Crassonotidae fam. nov. and sister to ?Notidanoides Maisey, 1986 and ?Pachyhexanchus Cappetta, 1990. We consider ?Notidanus amalthei Oppel, 1854 from the Pliensbachian of South Germany, ?Notidanus insignis Seguenza, 1887 from the Oxfordian of Sicily (Italy) and ?Notidanus wagneri Agassiz, 1843 from the Early Tithonian of Solnhofen (South Germany) nomina dubia and nomina nuda, respectively. The family ?Crassonotidae comprises plesiomorphic hexanchiforms ranging from the Sinemurian (Early Jurassic) to the Hauterivian (Early Cretaceous).  相似文献   

20.
Soldini  L.  Antuono  M.  Brocchini  M. 《Natural Hazards》2016,84(2):621-635
This study, part of the Special Issue dedicated to the 70th anniversary of Professor Efim Pelinovsky, focuses on a topic that has been central in Professor Pelinovsky’s research, i.e. the analytical and numerical modelling of shallow water waves. We specifically focus on the evolution of trains of shock waves on a planar beach. Antuono (J Fluid Mech 658:166–187, 2011) has, for the first time, proposed a quasi-analytical solution for a train of shock waves forced by a constant Riemann invariant. The present contribution clarifies the validity of such solution and its value for benchmarking nonlinear shallow water equation solvers. Hence, the same tests of Antuono (J Fluid Mech 658:166–187, 2011) have been run by means of the solver of Brocchini et al. (Coast Eng 43(2):105–129, 2001) revealing surprisingly and reassuring good agreements. This provides significant support to the mentioned analytical solution and allows to critically analyse the eventual discrepancies, due to the practicalities of running numerical shallow water solutions (e.g. influence of the boundary conditions, of the numerical resolution, etc.).  相似文献   

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