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1.
Strong tectonic earthquakes within the crust always occur on already existing faults, and they have the property of a shear rupture. Such earthquakes with surface-wave magnitudes M < 7 obviously have a geometric similarity. Because of this similarity and the validity of the Gutenberg and Richter's energy—magnitude relation, the expression M = 2 log10 L + const., with L = focal length, is valid.The expression LmaxL* for the maximum focal length, is also valid if L* is the length of the rectilinear extent of the seismic line on which the maximum earthquake occurs. The bounds of L* may be given by sharp bends and/or by traversing deep faults. Thus the maximum imaginable earthquake on a seismic line with the length L* has the magnitude Mmax = 2 log10 L* + const.For the investigated region — the Alps and adjacent areas — from the data of recent and historical strong earthquakes, it follows that Mmax = 2 log10 L* + 1.7, if L* is measured in kilometres. These limiting values lie in the centre-field of the magnitude range for maximum earthquakes, published by Shebalin in 1970. By the aid of this equation it is also possible to assess the upper limiting value of the accompanying maximum scale intensity.  相似文献   

2.
The Vienna Basin Transfer Fault (VBTF) is a slow active fault with moderate seismicity (I max~8–9, M max~5.7) passing through the most vulnerable regions of Austria and Slovakia. We use different data to constrain the seismic potential of the VBTF including slip values computed from the seismic energy release during the 20th century, geological data on fault segmentation and a depth-extrapolated 3-D model of a generalized fault surface, which is used to define potential rupture zones. The seismic slip of the VBTF as a whole is in the range of 0.22–0.31 mm/year for a seismogenic fault thickness of 8 km. Seismic slip rates for individual segments vary from 0.00 to 0.77 mm/year. Comparing these data to geologically and GPS-derived slip velocities (>1 mm/year) proofs that the fault yields a significant seismic slip deficit. Segments of the fault with high seismic slip contrast from segments with no slip representing locked segments. Fault surfaces of segments within the seismogenic zone (4–14 km depth) vary from 55 to 400 km2. Empirical scaling relations show that these segments are sufficiently large to explain both, earthquakes observed in the last centuries, and the 4th century Carnuntum earthquake, for which archeo-seismological data suggest a magnitude of M ≥ 6. Based on the combination of all data (incomplete earthquake catalog, seismic slip deficits, locked segments, potential rupture areas, indications of strong pre-catalog earthquakes) we argue, that the maximum credible earthquake for the VBTF is in the range M max = 6.0–6.8, significantly larger than the magnitude of the strongest recorded events (M = 5.7).  相似文献   

3.
Focal mechanisms for three recent earthquakes in Finland are determined using P-wave polarities together with SV/P and SH/P phase amplitude ratios. The events occurred on May 11, 2000 in Toivakka, Central Finland (ML=2.4), on September 15, 2000 in Kuusamo, northeastern Finland (ML=3.5), and on May 2, 2001 in Kolari, western Finnish Lapland (ML=2.9).In order to obtain reliable estimates of the source parameters, one-dimensional crust and upper mantle velocity models are derived for the epicenter areas from deep-seismic sounding results. The starting models are modified by one-dimensional ray tracing using the earthquake observations. The events are relocated by employing P- and S-phase arrival times from the nearest seismic stations and the final velocity models. Synthetic waveforms, calculated with the reflectivity method, are used to further constrain and verify the source and structural parameters.The Toivakka earthquake indicates thrust- or reverse-faulting mechanism at a depth of 5 km. After comparison with aeromagnetic and topographic data we suggest the eastward dipping nodal plane (358°/42°) was the fault plane. The best-fitting fault plane solution of the Kolari earthquake suggests pure thrust-faulting at a depth of 5 km. The nodal plane striking 035°/30° correlates well with surface observations of the postglacial, possibly listric fault systems in the source area. The Kuusamo earthquake (focal depth 14 km) has a normal-faulting mechanism with the nodal planes trending 133°/47° or 284°/47°. Preference is given to the SW-dipping nodal plane, as it seems to coincide with topographic and magnetic lineament directions that have been active after the last ice age.The three earthquakes have occurred in old Precambrian faults and shear zones, which have been reactivated. The reactivated faults are favourably oriented in the local stress field.  相似文献   

4.
A systematization of active faults has been developed based on the progress of scientists from the leading countries in the world in the study of seismotectonics and seismic hazard problems. It is underlain by the concept of the fault-block structure of the geological-geophysical environment governed by the interaction of differently oriented active faults, which are divided into two groups—seismogenic and nonseismogenic faults. In seismogenic fault zones, the tectonic stress accumulated is relieved by means of strong earthquakes. Nonseismogenic fault zones are characterized by creep displacement or short-term, oscillatory, and reciprocal movements, which are referred to local superintense deformations of the Earth’s crust (according to the terminology used by Yu.O. Kuz’min). For a situation when a strong earthquake happens, a subgroup of seismodistributing faults has been identified that surround the seismic source and affect the distribution of the seismic waves and, as a consequence, the pattern of the propagation of the coseismic deformations in the fault-block environment. Seismodistributing faults are divided into transit and sealing faults. Along transit faults, secondary coseismic effects (landfalls, landslides, ground fractures, liquefaction, etc) are intensified during earthquakes. In the case of sealing faults, enhancement of the coseismic effects can be observed on the disjunctive limb nearest to the epicenter, whereas, on the opposite limb, the intensity of such effects appreciably decreases. Seismogenic faults or their systems are associated with zones of earthquake source origination (ESO), which include concentrated seismicity regions. In such zones, each earthquake source is related to the evolution of a fault system. ESO zones also contain individual seismogenic sources being focuses of strong earthquakes with M of ≥5.5 in the form of ruptures, which can be graphically represented in 2D or 3D as a surface projection of the source. Depending on the type of data based on which they are identified, individual seismogenic sources are divided into geological-geophysical and macroseismic sources. The systematization presented is the theoretical basis for and the concept of the relational database that is being developed by the authors as an information system for the generation of seismotectonic GIS projects required for the subsequent analysis of the seismic hazard and the assessment of the probability of the origination of macroseismic earthquake effects in a predetermined location.  相似文献   

5.
Dextral transtensional deformation is occurring along the Sierra Nevada–Great Basin boundary zone (SNGBBZ) at the eastern edge of the Sierra Nevada microplate. In the Lake Tahoe region of the SNGBBZ, transtension is partitioned spatially and temporally into domains of north–south striking normal faults and transitional domains with conjugate strike-slip faults. The normal fault domains, which have had large Holocene earthquakes but account only for background seismicity in the historic period, primarily accommodate east–west extension, while the transitional domains, which have had moderate Holocene and historic earthquakes and are currently seismically active, primarily record north–south shortening. Through partitioned slip, the upper crust in this region undergoes overall constrictional strain.Major fault zones within the Lake Tahoe basin include two normal fault zones: the northwest-trending Tahoe–Sierra frontal fault zone (TSFFZ) and the north-trending West Tahoe–Dollar Point fault zone. Most faults in these zones show eastside down displacements. Both of these fault zones show evidence of Holocene earthquakes but are relatively quiet seismically through the historic record. The northeast-trending North Tahoe–Incline Village fault zone is a major normal to sinistral-oblique fault zone. This fault zone shows evidence for large Holocene earthquakes and based on the historic record is seismically active at the microearthquake level. The zone forms the boundary between the Lake Tahoe normal fault domain to the south and the Truckee transition zone to the north.Several lines of evidence, including both geology and historic seismicity, indicate that the seismically active Truckee and Gardnerville transition zones, north and southeast of Lake Tahoe basin, respectively, are undergoing north–south shortening. In addition, the central Carson Range, a major north-trending range block between two large normal fault zones, shows internal fault patterns that suggest the range is undergoing north–south shortening in addition to east–west extension.A model capable of explaining the spatial and temporal partitioning of slip suggests that seismic behavior in the region alternates between two modes, one mode characterized by an east–west minimum principal stress and a north–south maximum principal stress as at present. In this mode, seismicity and small-scale faulting reflecting north–south shortening concentrate in mechanically weak transition zones with primarily strike-slip faulting in relatively small-magnitude events, and domains with major normal faults are relatively quiet. A second mode occurs after sufficient north–south shortening reduces the north–south Shmax in magnitude until it is less than Sv, at which point Sv becomes the maximum principal stress. This second mode is then characterized by large earthquakes on major normal faults in the large normal fault domains, which dominate the overall moment release in the region, producing significant east–west extension.  相似文献   

6.
The evolution of the seismogenic process associated with the Ms 5.8 Sangro Valley earthquake of May 1984 (Abruzzo, central Italy) is closely controlled by the Quaternary extensional tectonic pattern of the area. This pattern is characterised by normal faults mainly NNW striking, whose length is controlled by pre-existing Mio–Pliocene N100±10° left-lateral strike-slip fault zones. These are partly re-activated as right-lateral normal-oblique faults under the Quaternary extensional regime and behave as transfer faults.Integration of re-located aftershocks, focal mechanisms and structural features are used to explain the divergence between the alignment of aftershocks (WSW–ENE) and the direction of seismogenic fault planes defined by the focal mechanisms (NNW–SSE) of the main shock and of the largest aftershock (Ms=5.3).The faults that appear to be involved in the seismogenic process are the NNW–SSE Barrea fault and the E–W M. Greco fault. There is field evidence of finite Quaternary deformation indicating that the normal Barrea fault re-activates the M. Greco fault as right-lateral transfer fault. No surface faulting was observed during the seismic sequence. The apparently incongruent divergence between aftershocks and nodal planes may be explained by interpreting the M. Greco fault as a barrier to the propagation of earthquake rupturing. The rupture would have nucleated on the Barrea fault, migrating along-strike towards NNW. The sharp variation in direction from the Barrea to the M. Greco fault segments would have represented a structural complexity sufficient to halt the rupture and subsequent concentration of post-seismic deformation as aftershocks around the line of intersection between the two fault planes.Fault complexities, similar to those observed in the Sangro Valley, are common features of the seismic zone of the Apennines. We suggest that the zones of interaction between NW–SE and NNW–SSE Plio-Quaternary faults and nearly E–W transfer faults, extending for several kilometres in the same way as M. Greco does, might act as barriers to the along-strike propagation of rupture processes during normal faulting earthquakes. This might have strong implications on seismic hazard, especially for the extent of the maximum magnitude expected on active faults during single rupture episodes.  相似文献   

7.
The Xianshuihe fault zone is a seismo-genetic fault zone of left-lateral slip in Southwest China. Since 1725, a total of 59 Ms ≥ 5.0 earthquakes have occurred along this fault zone, including 18 Ms 6.0–6.9 and eight Ms ≥ 7.0 earthquakes. The seismic risk of the Xianshuihe fault zone is a large and realistic threat to the western Sichuan economic corridor. Based on previous studies, we carried out field geological survey and remote sensing interpretation in the fault zone. In addition, geophysical surveys, trenching and age-dating were conducted in the key parts to better understand the geometry, spatial distribution and activity of the fault zone. We infer to divide the fault zone into two parts: the northwest part and the southeast part, with total eight segments. Their Late Quaternary slip rates vary in a range of 11.5 mm/a –(3±1) mm/a. The seismic activities of the Xianshuihe fault zone are frequent and strong, periodical, and reoccurred. Combining the spatial and temporal distribution of the historical earthquakes, the seismic hazard of the Xianshuihe fault zone has been predicted by using the relationship between magnitude and frequency of earthquakes caused by different fault segments. The prediction results show that the segment between Daofu and Qianning has a possibility of Ms ≥ 7.0 earthquakes, while the segment between Shimian and Luding is likely to have earthquakes of about Ms 7.0. It is suggested to establish a GPS or In SAR-based real-time monitoring network of surface displacement to cover the Xianshuihe fault zone, and an early warning system of earthquakes and post seismic geohazards to cover the major residential areas.  相似文献   

8.
The seismic hazard for the Lake Van basin is computed using a probabilistic approach, along with the earthquake data from 1907 to present. The spatial distribution of seismic events between the longitudes of 41–45° and the latitudes of 37.5–40°, which encompasses the region, indicates distinct seismic zones. The positions of these zones are well aligned with the known tectonic features such as the Tutak-Çald?ran fault zone, the Özalp fault zone, the Geva? fault zone, the Bitlis fault zone and Karl?ova junction where the North Anatolian fault zone and East Anatolian fault zone meet. These faults are known to have generated major earthquakes which strongly affected cities and towns such as Van, Mu?, Bitlis, Özalp, Muradiye, Çald?ran, Erci?, Adilcevaz, Ahlat, Tatvan, Geva? and Gürp?nar. The recurrence intervals of M s ≥ 4 earthquakes were evaluated in order to obtain the parameters of the Gutenberg–Richter measurements for seismic zones. More importantly, iso-acceleration maps of the basin were produced with a grid interval of 0.05 degrees. These maps are developed for 100- and 475- year return periods, utilizing the domestic attenuation relationships. A computer program called Sistehan II was utilized to generate these maps.  相似文献   

9.
C. Monaco  L. Tortorici 《Tectonophysics》2004,382(1-2):103-116
Examination of damages affecting the buildings of the archaeological sites of Phaistos and Agia Triada (southern Crete) suggests that these Minoan settlements were probably destroyed by two major seismic events characterized by MKS intensities of IX–X and occurred at the end of the Protopalatial (1700 BC) and the Neopalatial (1450 BC) periods. Geological and morphological studies carried out in the neighbouring areas show the occurrence of E–W trending Quaternary normal fault segments (Spili and Agia Galini faults) that control the present topography and morphology, and exhibit steep young scarps mostly Holocene in age. These fault segments are related to a NW–SE extension direction, which is consistent with that indicated by the available focal mechanisms of the earthquakes occurring in this area in the last 50 years. Combining structural and seismic data we can infer that the Spili and Agia Galini fault segments could represent good candidates to be considered active faults generating large earthquakes (M6.5) that were responsible for the damages of Phaistos and Agia Triada. This hypothesis suggests that the Minoan palatial centres were destroyed by several large earthquakes related to ruptures along distinct fault segments rather than by a single catastrophic event that caused the abrupt destruction of the Minoan civilisation in the eastern Mediterranean.  相似文献   

10.
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11.
Seismic hazard assessment of slow active fault zones is challenging as usually only a few decades of sparse instrumental seismic monitoring is available to characterize seismic activity. Tectonic features linked to the observed seismicity can be mapped by seismic imaging techniques and/or geomorphological and structural evidences. In this study, we investigate a seismic lineament located in the Swiss Alpine foreland, which was discussed in previous work as being related to crustal structures carrying in size the potential of a magnitude M 6 earthquake. New, low-magnitude (?2.0 ≤ ML ≤ 2.5) earthquake data are used to image the spatial and temporal distribution of seismogenic features in the target area. Quantitative and qualitative analyses are applied to the waveform dataset to better constrain earthquakes distribution and source processes. Potential tectonic features responsible for the observed seismicity are modelled based on new reinterpretations of oil industry seismic profiles and recent field data in the study area. The earthquake and tectonic datasets are then integrated in a 3D model. Spatially, the seismicity correlates over 10–15 km with a N–S oriented sub-vertical fault zone imaged in seismic profiles in the Mesozoic cover units above a major decollement on top of the mechanically more rigid basement and seen in outcrops of Tertiary series east of the city of Fribourg. Observed earthquakes cluster at shallow depth (<4 km) in the sedimentary cover. Given the spatial extend of the observed seismicity, we infer the potential of a moderate size earthquake to be generated on the lineament. However, since the existence of along strike structures in the basement cannot be excluded, a maximum M 6 earthquake cannot be ruled out. Thus, the Fribourg Lineament constitutes a non-negligible source of seismic hazard in the Swiss Alpine foreland.  相似文献   

12.
The 1511 Western Slovenia earthquake (M = 6.9) is the largest event occurred so far in the region of the Alps–Dinarides junction. Though it strongly influences the regional seismic hazard assessment, the epicenter and mechanism are still under debate. The complexity of the active tectonics of the Alps–Dinarides junction is reflected by the presence of both compressional and transpressional deformations. This complexity is witnessed by the recent occurrence of three main earthquake sequences, the 1976 Friuli thrust faulting events, the 1998 Bovec–Krn Mountain and the 2004 Kobarid strike-slip events. The epicenters of the 1998 and 2004 strike-slip earthquakes (Ms = 5.7 and Ms = 4.9, respectively) lie only 50 km far from the 1976 thrust earthquake (Ms = 6.5).We use the available macroseismic data and recent active tectonics studies, to assess a possible epicenter and mechanism for the 1511 earthquake and causative fault. According with previous works reported in the literature, we analyze both a two-and a single-event case, defining several input fault models. We compute synthetic seismograms up to 1 Hz in an extended-source approximation, testing different rupture propagations and applying a uniform seismic moment distribution on the fault segments. We extract the maximum horizontal velocities from the synthetics and we convert them into intensities by means of an empirical relation. A rounded-to-integer misfit between observed and computed intensities is performed, considering both a minimized and a maximized databases, built to avoid the use of half-degree macroseismic intensity data points. Our results are consistent with a 6.9 magnitude single event rupturing 50 km of the Idrija right-lateral strike-slip fault with bilateral rupture propagation.  相似文献   

13.
The easternmost sector of the Gulf of Corinth, the Beotia area in Central Greece, is an area with active normal faults located between the two major rift structures of Central Greece, the Gulf of Corinth and the North Gulf of Evia. These active normal faults include WNW to E–W and NE to ENE-trending faults affect the landscape and generate basin and range topography within the Beotia. We study four normal fault zones and drainage basin geometry in the easternmost sector of the Gulf of Corinth to document the impact of active tectonics on the landscape evolution. Fault and drainage geometry are investigated based on detailed field mapping and high-resolution digital elevation models. Tectonic geomorphic analysis using several parameters of active tectonics provides information concerning the relative tectonic activity and fault growth. In order to detect areas of lateral stream migration that could indicate recent tectonic activity, the Transverse Topographic Symmetry Factor and the Asymmetry Factor are used to analyse drainage basin geometry in six large drainage basins and a drainage domain covering the study area. Our results show that vertical motions and tilting associated with normal faulting influence the drainage geometry and its development. Values of stream-gradient indices (SL) are relatively high close to the fault traces of the studied fault zones suggesting high activity. Mountain-front sinuosity (Smf) mean values along the fault zones ranges from 1.08 to 1.26. Valley floor width to valley height ratios (Vf) mean values along the studied fault zones range between 0.5 and 1.6. Drainage basin shape (BS) mean values along the fault zones range from 1.08 to 3.54. All these geomorphic parameters and geomorphological data suggest that the analyzed normal faults are highly active. Lateral fault growth was likely produced by primarily eastward propagation, with the WNW to E–W trending faults being the relatively more active structures.  相似文献   

14.
Maximum magnitude of earthquakes Mmax expected in any distinct area is considered a consequence of both the tectonic features and the properties of the medium. An experimental problem was solved for the Caucasus where relationships were established between Mmax and a complex of geological conditions for the “standard” areas well known both geologically and seismologically. The solution is a formula connecting Mmax values with contributions of ten tectonic parameters expressed in terms of non-linear, monotonously increasing functions of amounts or rates of corresponding geological properties and processes.A map of calculated values of Mmax based on the solution was compiled for the Caucasus as a result of spreading the relationships established from the standard areas over the entire region. Prognostic values of Mmax were calculated and a similar map was also constructed for the Carpathian region.The detailed pattern of these maps and good coincidence of the calculated values of Mmax with registered magnitudes of earthquakes in the Carpathian region make it possible to regard the method presented in the paper as a possibility for constructing a geological basis of seismic zoning.  相似文献   

15.
中国活动构造研究的进展与展望   总被引：20，自引：0，他引：20  
邓起东 《地质论评》2002,48(2):168-177
本文试图在世界活动构造研究背景下概括中国活动构造研究的进展，并对最近20年来中国的活动构造研究，包括几何学、滑动速率、古地震和大震重复间隔、分段理论和应用、活动褶皱、深浅构造耦合关系、城市和海域活动构造探测、块体划分和块体运动、地震危险性的未来断裂滑动量评价及中国现代构造活动动力学等进行简要评述，对今后在这些方面的发展进行概略的讨论。  相似文献   

16.
文章以地质地貌与地震遗迹野外调查获得的第一手资料为基础,重点介绍了实皆断裂的活动习性、2012年地震产生的建筑物破坏与地震地表破裂带特征.实皆断裂是一条规模宏大,以右旋走滑为主的全新世活动断裂,其水平滑动速率为18～20 mm/a.历史上沿实皆断裂曾发生10余次7级以上强震,迄今保留有1839年曼德勒因瓦M 8、193...  相似文献   

17.
The extraregional seismotectonic method for prognosis estimation of seismic potential (M max) is presented. Information on the recent structure and state of the Earth's crust is used as the initial data for performing the seismotectonic analysis. The Earth's crust typification is performed applying computer procedures of cluster analysis for the territory of the major part of Europe of the adjacent aquatories and Central Asia. Application of the method results in an essential improvement of the prediction of the site and strength of expected earthquakes within seismically active territories and also makes possible the estimation of the seismic potential of weakly active regions from the same methodological standpoint.  相似文献   

18.
In the present study, the cumulative seismic energy released by earthquakes (M w ≥ 5) for a period of 1897 to 2009 is analyzed for northeast (NE) India. For this purpose, a homogenized earthquake catalogue in moment magnitude (M w ) has been prepared. Based on the geology, tectonics and seismicity, the study region is divided into three source zones namely, 1: Arakan-Yoma Zone (AYZ), 2: Himalayan Zone (HZ) and 3: Shillong Plateau Zone (SPZ). The maximum magnitude (M max ) for each source zone is estimated using Tsuboi’s energy blocked model. As per the energy blocked model, the supply of energy for potential earthquakes in an area is remarkably uniform with respect to time and the difference between the supply energy and cumulative energy released for a span of time, is a good indicator of energy blocked and can be utilized for the estimation of maximum magnitude (M max ) earthquakes. The proposed process provides a more consistent model of gradual accumulation of strain and non-uniform release through large earthquakes can be applied in the assessment of seismic hazard. Energy blocked for source zone 1, zone 2 and zone 3 regions is 1.35×1017 Joules, 4.25×1017 Joules and 7.25×1017 Joules respectively and will act as a supply for potential earthquakes in due course of time. The estimated M max for each source zone AYZ, HZ, and SPZ are 8.2, 8.6, and 8.7 respectively. M max obtained from this model is well comparable with the results of previous workers from NE region.  相似文献   

19.
This report summarizes the seismicity in Switzerland and surrounding regions in the years 2015 and 2016. In 2015, the Swiss Seismological Service detected and located 735 earthquakes in the region under consideration. With a total of 20 earthquakes of magnitude ML ≥ 2.5, the seismic activity of potentially felt events in 2015 was close to the average of 23 earthquakes over the previous 40 years. Seismic activity was above average in 2016 with 872 located earthquakes of which 31 events had ML ≥ 2.5. The strongest event in the analyzed period was the ML 4.1 Salgesch earthquake, which occurred northeast of Sierre (VS) in October 2016. The event was felt in large parts of Switzerland and had a maximum intensity of V. Derived focal mechanisms and relative hypocenter relocations of aftershocks image a SSE dipping reverse fault, which likely also hosted an ML 3.9 earthquake in 2003. Another remarkable earthquake sequence in the Valais occurred close to Sion with four felt events (ML 2.7–3.2) in 2015/16. We associate this sequence with a system of WNW-ESE striking fault segments north of the Rhône valley. Similarities with a sequence in 2011, which was located about 10 km to the NE, suggest the existence of an en-echelon system of basement faults accommodating dextral slip along the Rhône-Simplon line in this area. Another exceptional earthquake sequence occurred close to Singen (Germany) in November 2016. Relocated hypocenters and focal mechanisms image a SW dipping transtensional fault segment, which is likely associated with a branch of the Hegau-Bodensee Graben. On the western boundary of this graben, micro-earthquakes close to Schlattingen (TG) in 2015/16 are possibly related to a NE dipping branch of the Neuhausen Fault. Other cases of earthquakes felt by the public during 2015/16 include earthquakes in the region of Biel, Vallorcine, Solothurn, and Savognin.  相似文献   

20.
There have been instances of premonitory variations in tilts, displacements, strains, telluric current, seismomagnetic effects, seismic velocities ( Vp, Vs) and their ratio (Vp/Vs), b-values, radon emission, etc. preceding large and moderate earthquakes, especially in areas near epicentres and along faults and other weak zones. Intensity and duration (T) of these premonitory quantities are very much dependent on magnitude (M) of the seismic event. Hence, these quantities may be utilised for prediction of an incoming seismic event well in advance of the actual earthquake. In the recent past, tilts, strain in deep underground rock and crustal displacements have been observed in the Koyna earthquake region over a decade covering pre- and postearthquake periods; and these observations confirm their reliability for qualitative as well as quantitative premonitory indices. Tilt began to change significantly one to two years before the Koyna earthquake of December 10, 1967, of magnitude 7.0. Sudden changes in ground tilt measured in a watertube tiltmeter accompanied an earthquake of magnitude 5.2 on October 17, 1973 and in other smaller earthquakes in the Koyna region, though premonitory changes in tilt preceding smaller earthquakes were not so much in evidence. However, changes in strains in deep underground rock were observed in smaller earthquakes of magnitude 4.0 and above. Furthermore, as a very large number of earthquakes (M = 1–7.0) were recorded in the extensive seismic net in the Koyna earthquake region during 1963–1975, precise b-value variations as computed from the above data, could reveal indirectly the state of crustal (tectonic) strain variations in the earthquake focal region and consequently act as a powerful premonitory index, especially for the significant Koyna earthquakes of December 10, 1967 (M = 7.0) and October 17, 1973 (M = 5.2). The widespread geodetic and magnetic levelling observations covering the pre- and postearthquake periods indicate significant vertical and horizontal crustal displacements, possibly accompanied by large-scale migration of underground magma during the large seismic event of December 10, 1967 in the Koyna region (M = 7.0). Duration (T) of premonitory changes in tilt, strains, etc., is generally governed by the equation of the type logT = A + BM (A and B are statistically determined coefficients). Similar other instances of premonitory evidences are also observed in micro-earthquakes (M = − 1 to 2) due to activation of a fault caused by nearby reservoir water-level fluctuations.  相似文献   

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