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1.
A method based on the linearization of the limit state functions (LSFs) is applied to evaluate the reliability of series geotechnical systems. The approach only needs information provided by first order reliability method (FORM) results: the vector of reliability indices, β, of the LSFs composing the system; and their correlation matrix, R. Two common geotechnical problems—the stability of a slope in layered soil and a circular tunnel in rock—are employed to demonstrate the simplicity, accuracy and efficiency of the suggested procedure, and advantages of the linearization approach with respect to alternative computational tools are discussed. It is also found that, if necessary, the second order reliability method (SORM)—that approximates the true LSF better than FORM—can be employed to compute better estimations of the system’s reliability. 相似文献
2.
提出了基于响应面法的边坡稳定二阶可靠度分析的实用算法。选择U空间中的随机变量,通过空间变换和相关矩阵分解,计算试验点的功能函数;通过迭代算法构造响应面、以确保通过最小的计算量获得最优精度,并在此基础上进行FORM/SORM计算。以一岩石边坡的平面滑动问题为例,通过与蒙特卡洛模拟、FORM及随机响应面法的比较,证明了该方法的准确性和高效性。分析了参数的相关性及试验点取值范围对计算结果的影响,讨论了可靠度分析结果中参数敏感性和物理属性问题。该方法可为实际边坡问题的可靠度分析提供参考,并可以用来进行基于可靠度分析的加固设计。 相似文献
3.
《地学前缘(英文版)》2018,9(6):1631-1638
To meet the high demand for reliability based design of slopes, we present in this paper a simplified HLRF(Hasofere Linde Rackwitze Fiessler) iterative algorithm for first-order reliability method(FORM). It is simply formulated in x-space and requires neither transformation of correlated random variables nor optimization tools. The solution can be easily improved by iteratively adjusting the step length. The algorithm is particularly useful to practicing engineers for geotechnical reliability analysis where standalone(deterministic) numerical packages are used. Based on the proposed algorithm and through direct perturbation analysis of random variables, we conducted a case study of earth slope reliability with complete consideration of soil uncertainty and spatial variability. 相似文献
4.
提出了基于支持向量机（SVM）的边坡可靠度分析新算法。该方法采用均匀设计确定样本点,通过一定数量的确定性计算来训练SVM,拟合边坡的功能函数;采用一阶可靠度方法（FORM）和迭代算法优化SVM模型,获得可靠度指标和验算点信息;在SVM模型基础上进一步通过二阶可靠度方法（SORM）和蒙特卡罗模拟（MCS）计算边坡的失稳概率。以两个典型边坡为例,通过与其他方法比较,证明了该方法的准确性和高效性。结果表明：提出的在标准正态空间（U空间）中取样并构建SVM,在原始空间（X空间）中计算功能函数的算法,有效地解决了具有相关非正态分布变量的可靠度分析问题,并且可很容易扩展到SORM的计算。算例结果证明,该方法的精度高于FORM;而效率优于MCS。分析过程中,边坡安全系数计算和可靠度分析相互独立。因此,该方法既适用于具有显式功能函数的简单问题,也适用于需要软件计算安全系数的实际边坡问题。 相似文献
5.
A practical approach is proposed in this paper for the reliability assessment of rock tunnel excavations using the moving least squares method (MLSM) and the uniform design. The failure probability is computed by the first-order and the second-order reliability method (FORM/SORM), which is based on the generated MLSM response surface (MLSM-RS) via an iterative algorithm. The proposed approach is first implemented in the analysis of a circular tunnel that consists of three limit state functions to illustrate the efficiency and accuracy of the approach. Then, the method is applied to a non-circular tunnel to demonstrate the feasibility and validity of the method for practical problems, in which numerical procedures are commonly employed to solve the implicit limit state functions. 相似文献
6.
可靠度分析中梯度求解方法的研究 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
在岩土工程的可靠度分析中，功能函数的形式非常复杂，甚至是隐式的。而对于常用的可靠度分析方法，如一阶可靠性方法（FORM）、二阶可靠性方法（SORM）等，一个重要的问题是求功能函数对基本随机变量的梯度。因此，对于隐式的或复杂的显式功能函数，必须采用数值微分方法来求解功能函数的梯度。对于可靠度分析中常用的有限差分法（FDM）及有理多项式法（RPT）这两种数值微分方法，本文详细研究了二者问的异同及其求导结果与步长的关系，指出了对于相同的步长控制系数及取样方式，FDM是RPT在线性情况下的特例；对于连续的线性功能函数，可直接用3点FDM求导：对于连续的非线性功能函数，可用5点RPT求导；对于非连续的功能函数，应采用RPT求导。建议取步长控制系数等于1。 相似文献
7.
Reliability-based design (RBD) can play a useful complementary role to overcome some limitations in the Eurocode 7 (EC7) design approach, for example in situations with parameters not covered in EC7, different parametric sensitivities across different problems, cross-correlated or spatially correlated parameters, design aiming at a target reliability or failure probability, or when uncertainty in unit weight of soil is modeled. The complementary role played by RBD under these circumstances is illustrated and discussed for a shallow foundation, a reinforced rock slope, a Norwegian clay slope with spatial variability, a laterally loaded pile requiring implicit numerical analysis, and an anchored sheet pile wall. A pragmatic RBD approach involving first-order reliability method (FORM) only and a more rigorous RBD approach involving both first-order and second-order reliability method (SORM) are offered. Both approaches are implementable using either spreadsheet-based FORM and SORM procedures, or using various commercially available FORM/SORM packages. 相似文献
8.
岩土工程可靠度分析中,功能函数往往呈隐式且具有强非线性性质,而目前最为实用的矩方法,如JC法、二次二阶矩法,主要适用于显式功能函数情形。为此,将高效的统计矩估计方法和可靠度分析的高阶矩法相结合,提出了一种岩土工程可靠度分析的改进四阶矩方法。首先,通过引入变量的独立化变换和线性变换将功能函数转换为参考变量的函数,并结合多变量函数的单变量降维近似方法和参考变量计算节点与权系数的确定方法,建立了功能函数前四阶矩的高效点估计法。然后,将上述统计矩与立方正态变换假设相结合,提出了易于实现的岩土工程可靠度分析的改进四阶矩方法。最后,由数学算例验证了统计矩估计方法的效率和精度,并通过经典的岩土工程算例验证了建议的改进四阶矩方法具有高效率、高精度且操作简单等特点。 相似文献
9.
Probabilistic analysis of underground rock excavations using response surface method and SORM 总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6
Probabilistic analysis of underground rock excavations is performed using response surface method and SORM, in which the quadratic polynomial with cross terms is used to approximate the implicit limit state surface at the design point. The response surface is found using an iterative algorithm and the probability of failure is evaluated using the first-order and the second-order reliability method (FORM/SORM). Independent standard normal variables in U-space are chosen as basic random variables and transformed into correlated non-normal variables in the original space of random variables for constructing the response surface. The proposed method is first illustrated for a circular tunnel with analytical solutions considering Mohr–Coulomb (M–C) and Hoek–Brown (H–B) yield criteria separately. The failure probability with respect to the plastic zone criterion and the tunnel convergence criterion are estimated from FORM/SORM and compared to those obtained from Monte Carlo Simulations. The results show that the support pressure has great influence on the failure probability of the two failure modes. For the M–C model, the hypothesis of uncorrelated friction angle and cohesion will generate higher non-performance probability in comparison to the case of negatively correlated shear strength parameters. Reliability analyses involving non-normal distributions are also investigated. Finally, an example of a horseshoe-shaped highway tunnel is presented to illustrate the feasibility and validity of the proposed method for practical applications where numerical procedures are needed to calculate the performance function values. 相似文献
10.
In this study, a new reliability analysis method was developed based on the adaptive high-dimensional model representation (HDMR) and applied to geotechnical engineering problems. For practical problems requiring finite element (FE) analysis or other numerical methods to evaluate system responses such as stresses and deformations, an efficient and accurate metamodeling technique is needed because it is not efficient or straightforward to directly adopt the conventional sampling-based or gradient-based reliability analysis approaches. In this work, an adaptive metamodeling approach was created and studied based on the HDMR framework and augmented radial basis functions (ARBFs). In this adaptive ARBF-HDMR technique, a simple and inexpensive first-order ARBF-HDMR metamodel was first constructed to explicitly express a performance function, and an alternate first-order reliability method (FORM) was applied to locate the design point and compute the reliability index. A local window was then defined such that additional sample points were generated and a higher-order HDMR component function was created using ARBF and added to the existing ARBF-HDMR metamodel. The accuracy of the ARBF-HDMR metamodel was improved through this adaptive process, especially in the region surrounding the design point. One mathematical and four geotechnical engineering problems were studied and solved using the proposed adaptive ARBF-HDMR approach. The proposed method was found to be capable of obtaining accurate reliability indices within a few iterations in all test problems. 相似文献
11.
Pijush Samui Pradeep Kurup S. Dhivya J. Jagan 《Geotechnical and Geological Engineering》2016,34(2):579-584
First order reliability method (FORM) is generally used for reliability analysis in geotechnical engineering. This article adopts generalized regression neural network (GRNN) based FORM, Gaussian process regression (GPR) based FORM and multivariate adaptive regression spline (MARS) based FORM for reliability analysis of quick sand condition. GRNN is related to the radial basis function (RBF) network. GPR is developed based on probabilistic framework. MARS is a nonparametric regression technique. A comparative study has been carried out between the developed models. The performance of GPR based FORM and MARS based FORM match well with the FORM. This article gives the alternative methods for reliability analysis of quick sand condition. 相似文献
12.
This paper presents a practical procedure for assessing the system reliability of a rock tunnel. Three failure modes, namely, inadequate support capacity, excessive tunnel convergence, and insufficient rockbolt length, are considered and investigated using a deterministic model of ground-support interaction analysis based on the convergence–confinement method (CCM). The failure probability of each failure mode is evaluated from the first-order reliability method (FORM) and the response surface method (RSM) via an iterative procedure. The system failure probability bounds are estimated using the bimodal bounds approach suggested by Ditlevsen (1979), based on the reliability index and design point inferred from the FORM. The proposed approach is illustrated with an example of a circular rock tunnel. The computed system failure probability bounds compare favorably with those generated from Monte Carlo simulations. The results show that the relative importance of different failure modes to the system reliability of the tunnel mainly depends on the timing of support installation relative to the advancing tunnel face. It is also shown that reliability indices based on the second-order reliability method (SORM) can be used to achieve more accurate bounds on the system failure probability for nonlinear limit state surfaces. The system reliability-based design for shotcrete thickness is also demonstrated. 相似文献
13.
《地学前缘(英文版)》2018,9(6):1619-1629
This study aims at the probabilistic assessment of tunnel convergence considering the spatial variability in rock mass properties. The method of interpolated autocorrelation combined with finite difference analysis is adopted to model the spatial variability of rock mass properties. An iterative procedure using the first-order reliability method(FORM) and response surface method(RSM) is employed to compute the reliability index and its corresponding design point. The results indicate that the spatial variability considerably affects the computed reliability index. The probability of failure could be noticeably overestimated in the case where the spatial variability is neglected. The vertical scale of fluctuation has a much higher effect on the probabilistic result with respect to the tunnel convergence than the horizontal scale of fluctuation. And the influence of different spacing of control points on the computational accuracy is investigated. 相似文献
14.
Although first-order reliability method is a common procedure for estimating failure probability, the formulas derived for bimodal bounds of system failure probability have not been widely used as expected in present reliability analyses. The reluctance for applying these formulas in practice may be partly due to the impression that the procedures to implement the system reliability theory are tedious. Among the methods for system reliability analysis, the approach suggested in Ditlevsen 1979 is considered here because it is a natural extension of the first-order reliability method commonly used for failure probability estimation corresponding to a single failure mode, and it can often provide reasonably narrow failure probability bounds. To facilitate wider practical application, this paper provides a short program code in the ubiquitous Excel spreadsheet platform for efficiently calculating the bounds for system failure probability. The procedure is illustrated for a semi-gravity retaining wall with two failure modes, a soil slope with two and eight failure modes, and a loaded beam with three failure modes. In addition, simple equations are provided to relate the correlated but unrotated equivalent standard normals of the Low and Tang 2007 FORM procedure with the uncorrelated but rotated equivalent standard normals of the classical FORM procedure. Also demonstrated are the need for investigating different permutations of failure modes in order to get the narrowest bounds for system failure probability, and the use of SORM reliability index for system reliability bounds in a case where the curvature of the limit state surface cannot be neglected. 相似文献
15.
Wenping Gong James R. Martin 《Georisk: Assessment and Management of Risk for Engineered Systems and Geohazards》2016,10(2):109-120
To account for the uncertainties in the design of a geotechnical system, reliability-based design approach is often adopted, in which the main task is to evaluate reliability index of the system based on a performance function (or limit state function). In this paper, we propose a new method for computing the reliability index, based upon the numerical integration of the cumulative distribution function (CDF) of the performance function. This numerical integration method requires only a deterministic evaluation of the system performance and the joint probability of the uncertain input parameters. The effectiveness and the efficiency of the proposed method, measured in terms of the accuracy and the computational effort, respectively, are demonstrated with two geotechnical problems: a drilled shaft in sand and a semi-gravity retaining wall. The new method is found valid regardless of the type of distribution of uncertain input parameters, whether the correlations exist among these input parameters, whether the system involves single or multiple failure modes, and how the performance function is formulated. 相似文献
16.
17.
极限分析是岩土工程稳定性评价的重要方法之一。传统的有限元极限分析方法,采用低阶三角形单元时需要引入速度间断面并采用特殊网格布局,或者采用高阶三角形单元等措施来克服体积锁定问题和提高数值精度。在光滑有限元法（smoothed finite element method,简称SFEM）的基础上,提出了一种基于新型混合常应力−光滑应变单元的极限分析方法（mixed constant stress-smoothed strain element limit analysis,简称MCSE-LA方法）。在服从关联流动法则和Mohr-Coulomb屈服准则的基础上,MCSE-LA方法最终将数值极限分析转化为以应力和极限荷载乘子为基本未知量的二阶锥规划（second order cone programming,简称SOCP）问题。MCSE-LA方法具有形式简单、优化变量相对较少和无需显式的写出塑性内能耗散函数的优点,并且根据凸锥优化的对偶理论,可以从对偶问题中获得速度场和塑性乘子等信息。此外,还采用基于最大塑性剪应变率的网格自适应加密算法,该算法在塑性区细化网格,显著提高了新数值极限分析方法的计算效率和精度。最后通过边坡稳定分析的结果对比,验证了MCSE-LA方法的计算精度和效率均高于传统的有限元极限分析方法。 相似文献
18.
A practical and efficient approach of implementing second‐order reliability method (SORM) is presented and illustrated for cases related to foundation engineering involving explicit and implicit limit state functions. The proposed SORM procedure is based on an approximating paraboloid fitted to the limit state surface in the neighborhood of the design point and can be easily carried out in a spreadsheet. Complex mathematical operations are relegated to relatively simple user‐created functions. The failure probability is calculated automatically based on the reliability index and principal curvatures of the limit state surface using established closed‐form SORM formulas. Four common foundation engineering examples are analyzed using the proposed method and discussed: immediate settlement of a flexible rectangular foundation, bearing capacity of a shallow footing, axial capacity of a vertical single pile, and deflection of a pile under lateral load. Comparisons with Monte Carlo simulations are made. In the case of the laterally loaded pile, the friction angle of the soil is represented as a one‐dimensional random field, and pile deflections are computed based on finite element analysis on a stand‐alone computer package. The implicit limit state function is approximated via the response surface method using two quadratic models. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
19.
位移反分析的粒子群优化-高斯过程协同优化方法 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
针对采用随机全局优化技术进行岩土工程位移反分析存在数值计算量大、效率低的问题,将粒子群优化算法与高斯过程机器学习技术相结合,提出了位移反分析的粒子群优化-高斯过程协同优化方法。该方法利用全局寻优性能优异的粒子群优化算法进行寻优的基础上,采用高斯过程机器学习模型不断地总结历史经验,预测包含全局最优解的最有前景区域,通过提高粒子群搜索效率并降低适应度评价次数,进而有效地降低位移反分析过程中的数值计算工作量。多种测试函数的数学验证和工程算例的研究结果表明该方法是可行的,与传统方法相比较,可显著地降低位移反分析的计算耗时。 相似文献
20.
In this study, a geotechnical model has been used to analyze the stability of a discontinuous rock slope. The main idea behind block theory is that it disregards many different combinations of discontinuities and directly identifies and considers critical rock blocks known as “key blocks”. The rock slope used as a case study herein is situated in the sixth phase of the gas flare site of the South Pars Gas Complex, Assalouyeh, Iran. In order to analyze the stability of discontinuous rock slopes, geotechnical modeling which was divided into geometrical sub-modeling and mechanical sub-modeling has been utilized. This model has been established upon the KGM (key-group method) algorithm which was based on the limit equilibrium method and block theory and prepared and coded by the Mathematica software. According to the results of the stability analysis, the analyzed slope was determined to be in the category of “needs attention,” and the security level, calculated through the FORM (first-order reliability method) analysis, was estimated to be 1.16. In order to verify the model, the results obtained from the model were compared with those of the UDEC software, which is a numerical method based on distinct components. As a conclusion, it was determined that the results of the model agreed well with those of the numerical method. 相似文献