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1.
Thanh Son Nguyen Suched Likitlersuang Hiroyasu Ohtsu Takafumi Kitaoka 《Arabian Journal of Geosciences》2017,10(16):369
Rainfall-induced landslides frequently occur in humid temperate regions worldwide. Research activity in understanding the mechanism of rainfall-induced landslides has recently focused on the probability of slope failure involving non-homogeneous soil profiles. This paper presents probabilistic analyses to assess the stability of unsaturated soil slope under rainfall. The influence of the spatial variability of shear strength parameters on the probability of rainfall-induced slope failure is conducted by means of a series of seepage and stability analyses of an infinite slope based on random fields. A case study of shallow failure located on sandstone slopes in Japan is used to verify the analysis framework. The results confirm that a probabilistic analysis can be efficiently used to qualify various locations of failure surface caused by spatial variability of soil shear strength for a shallow infinite slope failure due to rainfall. 相似文献
2.
Xiao-hui Tan Na Hu Dan Li Meng-fen Shen Xiao-liang Hou 《Geotechnical and Geological Engineering》2013,31(1):319-327
Time-variant reliability analysis for a typical unsaturated soil slope is performed. Eight rainfall conditions are considered, and three slope models are set up for studying the influence of shear strength parameters, hydraulic conductivity parameters, rainfall intensity and duration on the reliability of the soil slope. Sensitivity analysis shows that when the saturated hydraulic conductivity (k s) is very small, the variation of hydraulic conductivity has little effect on the reliability index (β). For saving the computation effort, only the shear strength parameters are needed in performing the reliability analysis in this condition. With the increase of k s, the importance of hydraulic conductivity becomes large. The reliability index of the soil slope is changing with time (t), and the shape of β–t curves for different slope model is quite different for they depend on the value of k s. When k s is very small, β keeps decreasing for all the 18 simulation days. With the increase of k s, β decreases to its minimum value at about the cessation day of rainfall events, and it then increases gradually due to the redistribution of suction in the soil slope. 相似文献
3.
Rainwater infiltration during typhoons tends to trigger slope instability. This paper presents the results of a study on slope
response to rainwater infiltration during heavy rainfall in a mountain area of Taiwan. The Green-Ampt infiltration model is
adopted here to study the behavior of rainwater infiltration on slopes. The failure mechanism of infinite slope is chosen
to represent the rainfall-induced shallow slope failure. By combining rain infiltration model and infinite slope analysis,
the proposed model can estimate the occurrence time of a slope failure. In general, if a slope failure is to happen on a slope
covered with low permeability soil, failure tends to happen after the occurrence of the maximum rainfall intensity. In contrast,
slope failure tends to occur prior to the occurrence of maximum rainfall intensity if a slope is covered with high-permeability
soil. To predict the potential and timing of a landslide, a method is proposed here based on the normalized rainfall intensity
(NRI) and normalized accumulated rainfall (NAR). If the actual NAR is higher than the NAR calculated by the proposed method,
slope failure is very likely to happen. Otherwise, the slope is unlikely to fail. The applicability of the proposed model
to occurrence time and the NAR–NRI relationship is evaluated using landslide cases obtained from the literature. The results
of the proposed method are close to that of the selected cases. It verifies the applicability of the proposed method to slopes
in different areas of the world.
An erratum to this article can be found at 相似文献
4.
降雨诱发滑坡是世界上最普遍的地质灾害,而关于降雨入渗对边坡的可靠度分析,优势入渗的影响被长期忽视。使用Comsol Multiphysics对降雨条件下优势入渗做数值求解,利用无限边坡模型计算边坡安全系数;并应用改进Cholesky分解法生成空间相关随机场,使用蒙特卡洛方法分析降雨过程中边坡的可靠度。结合确定性与可靠度计算对比均质入渗与优势入渗在降雨过程中边坡安全性变化：（1）降雨强度较低时,优势入渗安全性较好,而降雨强度较高时,均质入渗更稳定;（2）均质入渗中参数空间变异性是边坡失稳破坏的关键因素,而优势入渗的边坡失稳则由湿润峰快速推进所导致;（3）针对优势入渗模型研究,发现基质域与优势域水力交换强度较大时边坡有更大概率失稳,而较小的水力交换强度可能影响边坡底部的失稳破坏。 相似文献
5.
Slope failures in the tropical regions, particularly Malaysia are commonly triggered by frequent rainfall. The tropical rainfall can be characterized as short and intense throughout the year, and prolonged and less intense during monsoon seasons. Under such circumstances, various rainfall patterns should be included in the analysis of rainfall-induced slope failure in the tropical regions. This paper is aimed to demonstrate a simple model for preliminary evaluation of rainfall-induced slope failure. The critical rainfall patterns for four typical types of soil were first determined. Seepage finite element analyses were conducted using the extreme rainfall of ten-year return period for Johor Bahru, Malaysia. The results showed that the ratio of rainfall intensity to soil saturated permeability (i.e., I/ksat) plays an important role in determining the critical rainfall pattern. Two critical combinations of antecedent rainfall and major rainfall, 1-day, 2-day, 3-day, 5-day, 7-day, 14-day, and 30-day antecedent rainfalls and the redistribution of the critical combination of antecedent rainfall and 1-day major rainfall were responsible for the formation of suction envelope in soil. The suction envelope, representing the worst suction distribution in soil, was used for the computation of factor of safety of soil slope through the modified infinite-slope–limit-equilibrium method. A model, PERISI, was developed based on the findings from numerical simulation. The suction envelope and factor of safety computed from the PERISI model showed good agreements with the results obtained from Seep/W and Slope/W computer programs and the results derived from the model of Rahardjo et al. developed in 1995. 相似文献
6.
东南沿海残积土地区降雨诱发型滑坡预报雨强-历时曲线的影响因素分析 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
东南沿海山地丘陵地区每年雨季期间有大量土质滑坡发生,如何对由降雨诱发的滑坡进行预报一直都是一个热点研究课题,雨强-历时曲线（简称I-D曲线）是目前国内外常用的降雨型滑坡预报的降雨量临界值曲线。针对东南沿海地区的浅层残积土滑坡,根据相关勘察数据及资料,概化得到了该类型边坡的地质剖面及岩土层性质,然后应用Geo-Studio软件分析了边坡初始湿润条件、土体抗剪强度、饱和渗透系数、边坡坡角、残坡积土层厚度及雨型等参数对I-D曲线的影响规律。分析结果表明：残坡积土抗剪强度参数、饱和渗透系数、边坡坡角、雨型等因素对I-D曲线的影响显著,边坡安全系数降至临界值所需降雨历时随抗剪强度参数值降低、表层残积土渗透系数增加或坡角增大而减少;当雨强较小时,初始湿润条件对I-D曲线的影响显著;当雨强大于残坡积土层饱和渗透系数时,入渗量主要由渗透系数控制,边坡安全系数降至临界值所需降雨历时不随雨强增大而变化。该研究结果为I-D曲线在东南沿海残积土地区降雨诱发滑坡预警预报中的应用奠定了基础。 相似文献
7.
Ji Yuan Iason Papaioannou Daniel Straub 《Georisk: Assessment and Management of Risk for Engineered Systems and Geohazards》2019,13(1):20-33
Rainfall-induced landslides occur during or immediately after rainfall events in which the pore water pressure builds up, leading to shallow slope failure. Thereby, low permeability layers result in high gradients in pore water pressure. The spatial variability of the soil permeability influences the probability such low permeability layers, and hence the probability of slope failure. In this paper, we investigate the influence of the vertical variability of soil permeability on the slope reliability, accounting for the randomness of rainfall processes. We model the saturated hydraulic conductivity of the soil with a one-dimensional random field. The random rainfall events are characterised by their duration and intensity and are modelled through self-similar random processes. The transient infiltration process is represented by Richards equation, which is evaluated numerically. The reliability analysis of the infinite slope is based on the factor of safety concept for evaluating slope stability. To cope with the large number of random variables arising from the discretization of the random field and the rainfall process, we evaluate the slope reliability through Subset Simulation, which is an adaptive Monte Carlo method known to be especially efficient for reliability analysis of such high-dimensional problems. Numerical investigations show higher probability of slope failure with increased spatial variability of the saturated hydraulic conductivity and with more uniform rainfall patterns. 相似文献
8.
考虑参数空间变异性的非饱和土坡可靠度分析 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
在考虑多个土体参数空间变异性的基础上,提出了基于拉丁超立方抽样的非饱和土坡稳定可靠度分析的非侵入式随机有限元法。利用Hermite随机多项式展开拟合边坡安全系数与输入参数间的隐式函数关系,采用拉丁超立方抽样技术产生输入参数样本点,通过Karhunen-Loève展开方法离散土体渗透系数、有效黏聚力和内摩擦角随机场,并编写了计算程序NISFEM-KL-LHS。研究了该方法在稳定渗流条件下非饱和土坡可靠度分析中的应用。结果表明：非侵入式随机有限元法为考虑多个土体参数空间变异性的非饱和土坡可靠度问题提供了一种有效的分析工具。土体渗透系数空间变异性和坡面降雨强度对边坡地下水位和最危险滑动面位置均有明显的影响。当降雨强度与饱和渗透系数的比值大于0.01时,边坡失效概率急剧增加。当土体参数变异性或者参数间负相关性较大时,忽略土体参数空间变异性会明显高估边坡失效概率。 相似文献
9.
降雨条件下考虑饱和渗透系数变异性的边坡可靠度分析 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
土体饱和渗透系数表现为天然的变异性,为此基于Green-Ampt模型建立了考虑饱和渗透系数变异性的降雨入渗物理模型,并藉此模型确定了坡体湿润锋深度和含水率分布。然后结合无限长非饱和土边坡稳定模型得到解析形式的反映边坡稳定性的极限状态函数。采用Monte Carlo法对饱和渗透系数进行随机抽样并最终建立降雨条件下考虑饱和渗透系数变异性的边坡概率分析框架。针对一假想边坡,探讨了饱和渗透系数的变异系数、降雨持时和降雨强度对边坡破坏概率以及破坏发生时间概率分布的影响,结果表明：在降雨初期,边坡的破坏概率随饱和渗透系数变异性的增强而逐渐增加,但随着降雨的持续,破坏概率开始随变异性的增强而显著降低;滑坡最可能发生时间的大小并不受饱和渗透系数变异性的影响,而是直接取决于降雨强度;滑坡最可能发生时间所对应的概率却随变异性的增强而逐渐减小。 相似文献
10.
Enhancement of random finite element method in reliability analysis and risk assessment of soil slopes using Subset Simulation 总被引：4，自引：2，他引：2
Random finite element method (RFEM) provides a rigorous tool to incorporate spatial variability of soil properties into reliability analysis and risk assessment of slope stability. However, it suffers from a common criticism of requiring extensive computational efforts and a lack of efficiency, particularly at small probability levels (e.g., slope failure probability P f ?<?0.001). To address this problem, this study integrates RFEM with an advanced Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) method called “Subset Simulation (SS)” to develop an efficient RFEM (i.e., SS-based RFEM) for reliability analysis and risk assessment of soil slopes. The proposed SS-based RFEM expresses the overall risk of slope failure as a weighed aggregation of slope failure risk at different probability levels and quantifies the relative contributions of slope failure risk at different probability levels to the overall risk of slope failure. Equations are derived for integrating SS with RFEM to evaluate the probability (P f ) and risk (R) of slope failure. These equations are illustrated using a soil slope example. It is shown that the P f and R are evaluated properly using the proposed approach. Compared with the original RFEM with direct MCS, the SS-based RFEM improves, significantly, the computational efficiency of evaluating P f and R. This enhances the applications of RFEM in the reliability analysis and risk assessment of slope stability. With the aid of improved computational efficiency, a sensitivity study is also performed to explore effects of vertical spatial variability of soil properties on R. It is found that the vertical spatial variability affects the slope failure risk significantly. 相似文献
11.
Shallow slope failure due to heavy rainfall during rainstorm and typhoon is common in mountain areas. Among the models used
for analyzing the slope stability, the rainwater infiltration model integrated with slope stability model can be an effective
way to evaluate the stability of slopes during rainstorm. This paper will propose an integrated Green–Ampt infiltration model
and infinite slope stability model for the analysis of shallow type slope failure. To verify the suitability of the proposed
model, seven landslide cases occurred in Italy and Hong Kong are adopted in this paper. The results indicate that the proposed
model can be used to distinguish failed and not-yet failed slopes. In addition, the proposed model can be used as the first
approximation for estimating the occurrence time of a rainfall-induced shallow landslide and its depth of sliding. 相似文献
12.
This paper develops a risk de-aggregation and system reliability approach to evaluate the slope failure probability, pf, using representative slip surfaces together with MCS. An efficient procedure is developed to strategically select the candidate representative slip surfaces, and a risk de-aggregation approach is proposed to quantify contribution of each candidate representative slip surface to the pf, identify the representative slip surfaces, and determine how many representative slip surfaces are needed for estimating the pf with reasonable accuracy. Risk de-aggregation is performed by collecting the failure samples generated in MCS and analyzing them statistically. The proposed methodology is illustrated through a cohesive soil slope example and validated against results from previous studies. When compared with the previous studies, the proposed approach substantially improves the computational efficiency in probabilistic slope stability analysis. The proposed approach is used to explore the effect of spatial variability on the pf. It is found that, when spatial variability is ignored or perfect correlation assumed, the pf of the whole slope system can be solely attributed to a single representative slip surface. In this case, it is theoretically appropriate to use only one slip surface in the reliability analysis. As the spatial variability becomes growingly significant, the number of representative slip surfaces increases, and all representative slip surfaces (i.e., failure modes) contribute more equally to the overall system risk. The variation of failure modes has substantial effect on the pf, and all representative surfaces have to be incorporated properly in the reliability analysis. The risk de-aggregation and system reliability approach developed in this paper provides a practical and efficient means to incorporate such a variation of failure modes in probabilistic slope stability analysis. 相似文献
13.
Internal soil moisture response to rainfall-induced slope failures and debris discharge 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
Ching-Chuan Huang Chien-Li Lo Jia-Shiun Jang Lih-Kang Hwu 《Engineering Geology》2008,101(3-4):134-145
Predictions of rainfall-induced fast-moving mass flow and/or debris flows require better knowledge of the mechanism controlling the debris discharge of slopes in debris source areas. A series of rainfall tests on 0.32 m-deep, 0.7 m-high, 1.35 m-wide sandy slopes resting on a bi-linear impermeable rigid base was performed. Soil moisture content and solid discharge measurements were performed to gain insights into the rainfall-induced retrogressive slope failure. The solid (or debris) discharge is a result of the wash-out of the fluidized slope toe by the interflow along the soil–bedrock interface. Characteristics of the failure process for the slopes are represented by mass wasting curves or ‘solid discharge (Qs) vs. time (t)’ curves which are functions of the rainfall intensity and/or the cumulative rainfall. The mass wasting curves have inflection points representing transitions from minor toe failures into remarkable retrogressive failures. The first inflection point of the soil moisture (ω) vs. t curve measured at the soil–bedrock interface signaling the arrival of the descending ‘wet front’, may serve as a precursor for predicting the onset of an abrupt solid discharge induced by shallow slope failures. The time of peak water content measured at the soil–bedrock interface may approximate the time of 5% total solid volume discharge. Up to the time of 5% of total slope volume discharge, a fully saturated state (Sr 100%) was never observed at the 0.2 m-below-surface zone; however, it was observed along the soil–bedrock interface at near-toe zone of the slope, regardless of the intensity of rainfall investigated. Retrogressive failures were essentially associated with nonuniformly distributed water content in the slope. For both the 0.2 m-below-surface zone and the soil–bedrock interface, a more uniform distribution of Sr along the full height of the slope was found for slopes subjected to high rainfall intensities of 47 and 65 mm/h than that for the slope subjected to a low rainfall intensity of 23 mm/h. At the inflection point of the Qs vs. t curve and 5% of total solid volume discharge, values of Sr at a certain distance from the toe for the soil–bedrock interface were higher than those measured at the same distance from the toe for the 0.2 m-below-surface zone, indicating the effect of infiltration-induced interflow along the soil–bedrock interface and its effects on the fluidization of the slope toe and the retrogressive failure of the slope. 相似文献
14.
In order to generate early warning for landslides, it is necessary to address the spatial and temporal aspects of slope failure. The present study deals with the temporal dimension of slope failures taking into account the most widespread and frequent triggering factor, i.e. rainfall, along the National Highway-58 from Rishikesh to Mana in the Garhwal Himalaya, India. Using the post-processed three-hourly rainfall intensity and duration values from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission-based Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis and the time-tagged landslide records along this route, an intensity–duration (I–D)-based threshold has been derived as I?=?58.7D ?1.12 for the rainfall-triggered landslides. The validation of the I–D threshold has shown 81.6 % accuracy for landslides which occurred in 2005 and 2006. From this result, it can be inferred that landslides in the study area can be initiated by continuous rainfall of over 12 h with about 4-mm/h intensity. Using the mean annual precipitation, a normalized intensity–duration relation of NI?=?0.0612D ?1.17 has also been derived. In order to account for the influence of the antecedent rainfall in slope failure initiation, the daily, 3-day cumulative, and 15- and 30-day antecedent rainfall values associated with landslides had been subjected to binary logistic regression using landslide as the dichotomous dependent variable. The logistic regression retained the daily, 3-day cumulative and 30-day antecedent rainfall values as significant predictors influencing slope failure. This model has been validated through receiver operating characteristic curve analysis using a set of samples which had not been used in the model building; an accuracy of 95.1 % has been obtained. Cross-validation of I–D-based thresholding and antecedent rainfall-based probability estimation with slope failure initiation shows 81.9 % conformity between the two in correctly predicting slope stability. Using the I–D-based threshold and the antecedent rainfall-based regression model, early warning can be generated for moderate to high landslide-susceptible areas (which can be delineated using spatial integration of preconditioning factors). Temporal predictions where both the methods converge indicate higher chances of slope failures for areas predisposed to instability due to unfavourable geo-environmental and topographic parameters and qualify for enhanced slope failure warning. This method can be verified for further rainfall seasons and can also be refined progressively with finer resolutions (spatial and temporal) of rainfall intensity and multiple rain gauge stations covering a larger spatial extent. 相似文献
15.
A cross-correlation analysis is conducted to determine the impacts of the heterogeneity of hydraulic conductivity Ks, soil cohesion c′ and soil friction angle (tan φ′) on the uncertainty of slope stability in time and space during rainfall. We find the relative importance of tan φ′ and c′ depends on the effective stress. While the sensitivity of the stability to the variability of Ks is small, the large coefficient of variation of Ks may exacerbate the variability of pore-water pressure. Therefore, characterizing the heterogeneity of hydraulic properties and pore-water distribution in the field is critical to the stability analysis. 相似文献
16.
Rainfall-induced slope instabilities are ubiquitous in nature, but simulation of this type of hazards with centrifuge modelling still poses difficulties. In this paper, we introduce a rainfall device for initiating slope failure in a medium-sized centrifuge. This rainfall system is simple, robust and affordable. An array of perforated hoses is placed close above the model slope surface to generate the raindrops. The rainfall intensity depends on the centrifuge acceleration and the flow rate of the water supply, which is controlled by the size and number of the tiny pinholes in the hose walls. The rainfall intensities that are tested range from 2.5–30 mm/h, covering the intensity range of moderate, heavy and torrential rainfall events. Our model test with rainfall-induced slope failure shows that this system is capable of generating relatively uniform rainfall of wide intensities and leads to various patterns of slope failure.
相似文献17.
黄土边坡的变形破坏多发生于降雨期间,由此也造成了大量的损失。为减小降雨诱发黄土滑坡的影响,开展降雨型滑坡现场实验研究,具有现实意义。本文选取泾阳一天然黄土边坡为研究对象,利用自行设计的模拟降雨系统,设计并进行了3组不同雨强下的大型黄土边坡人工模拟降雨试验,旨在研究不同雨强条件下天然黄土边坡的入渗规律及变形破坏模式。通过对边坡内埋设的土壤水分传感仪、土压力盒和张力计管的读数变化及试验现象进行分析,进而得出降雨条件下大型黄土边坡现场试验的变形破坏规律,总结出该类边坡的水分入渗规律和变形破坏模式。试验结果表明,边坡入渗呈现一定的规律:降雨条件下,坡肩入渗深度和速率最大,坡脚次之,坡面最小;同时,降雨强度越大,雨水入渗速率越快,入渗时间越长,边坡相同位置处体积含水率和土压力增大幅度越大,基质吸力减小的幅度越大。降雨条件下天然黄土边坡的变形破坏模式为:坡肩侵蚀及侵蚀扩展→坡面裂隙形成扩展→坡肩裂隙形成扩展→局部滑塌;若继续降雨,则坡肩局部裂隙逐渐贯通进而形成滑面,最终导致滑坡发生。 相似文献
18.
A rainfall-induced shallow landslide is a major hazard in mountainous terrain, but a time-space based approach is still an unsettled issue for mapping rainfall-induced shallow landslide hazards. Rain induces a rise of the groundwater level and an increase in pore water pressure that results in slope failures. In this study, an integrated infinite slope analysis model has been developed to evaluate the influence of infiltration on surficial stability of slopes by the limit equilibrium method. Based on this new integrated infinite slope analysis model, a time-space based approach has been implemented to map the distributed landslide hazard in a GIS (Geographic Information Systems) and to evaluate the shallow slope failure induced by a particular rainfall event that accounts for the rainfall intensity and duration. The case study results in a comprehensive time-space landslide hazard map that illustrates the change of the safety factor and the depth of the wetting front over time. 相似文献
19.
为了分析降雨入渗影响下非饱和土坡渗流特性,利用自制降雨模拟系统和实时监测系统,对降雨诱发非饱和土坡失稳过程进行全方位、多参量的实时监测,研究不同降雨条件下,不同坡度、不同压实度边坡坡体不同位置雨水入渗率和湿润峰的实变规律.结果表明:降雨入渗条件下,陡坡和高压实度土体不利于雨水入渗,而缓坡和低密实度土体入渗率变化快;实际土体吸力和含水量实时变化规律不同步,提出试验湿润峰概念,含水率（吸力）湿润峰点可按含水率（吸力）实时曲线的过渡区和雨后残余含水率（吸力）的线性交叉点确定;考虑单向吸湿或脱湿路径下土体含水率和吸力具有唯一对应关系,含水率湿润峰点与吸力湿润峰点的绝对值时差即为形成湿润峰所需时间;对比湿润峰实测值与Lumb半经验值散点分布规律,基于Lumb湿润峰深度计算公式提出非线性修正表达式. 相似文献
20.
提高降雨型滑坡危险性预警精度和空间辨识度具有重要意义.以江西宁都县1980—2001年156个降雨型滑坡为例,首先基于传统的EE-D（early effective rainfall-rainfall duration）阈值法计算不同降雨诱发滑坡的时间概率级别;然后以各级别临界降雨阈值曲线对应的时间概率为因变量,并以对应的前期有效降雨量（early effective rainfall,EE）和降雨历时（D）为自变量,采用逻辑回归拟合出上述因变量与自变量之间的非线性关系,得到降雨诱发滑坡的连续概率值;之后对比C5.0决策树和多层感知器的滑坡易发性预测性能;最后利用降雨诱发滑坡的连续概率值与易发性图相耦合以实现连续概率滑坡危险性预警.结果显示:（1）宁都降雨型滑坡连续概率值的逻辑回归方程为1/P=1+e4.062+0.747 4×D-0.079 44×EE,其拟合优度为0.983;（2）2002—2003年的20处用于连续概率阈值测试的降雨型滑坡大都落在连续概率值大于0.7的区域,只有4处落在小于0.7的区域;（3）C5.0决策树预测滑坡易发性的精度显著高于多层感知器;（4）近5年的4次降雨型滑坡的连续概率危险性值都在0.8以上,且高和极高预警区的面积较传统滑坡危险性分区更小.可见连续概率滑坡危险性预警法相较于传统危险性分区法具有更高的预警精度和空间辨识度,且通过叠加滑坡易发性图及其临界降雨阈值可开展实时滑坡危险性预警制图. 相似文献