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1.
基于CMIP5的东亚地区降雪量变化特征分析   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
利用JMA的JRA-55降雪量及CMIP5的6个模式模拟的降雪量资料, 分析了东亚地区降雪量年变化特征及年际变化特征. 结果表明: 东亚地区降雪量在1958-2004年期间具有明显的年际变化特征及区域分布特征; 降雪主要集中在11月至翌年的4月, 这6个月中降雪量占年总降雪量的82%; 年际变化特征呈现出一种波动变化略有增加的趋势, 但是增加的幅度有所不同. 从区域分布特征来看, 东亚地区降雪主要分布在东北亚、青藏高原及新疆等3个区域. CMIP5的6个模式对东亚区域及其子区域东北亚、青藏高原、新疆1850-2004年降雪量年际变化特征的模拟差异较大. 多模式集合预报的结果表现为, 在过去155 a(1850-2004年)东亚区域降雪量呈现明显减小趋势, 东北亚和青藏高原降雪量为波动略有减小趋势, 新疆降雪量为明显增加趋势.  相似文献   

2.
辽宁省不同等级降雪变化特征   总被引：9，自引：6，他引：3  
利用辽宁省52个站逐日降水量及降雪天气现象资料提取出逐日降雪数据,采用多种统计方法分析了近53 a(1961-2013年)不同等级降雪的时空变化特征,研究表明:降雪量和降雪日数空间分布上山地要大于平原地区,由东部山区向沿海地区减少;降雪强度中心位于辽宁中部城市群所在的平原地区。降雪量、降雪日数年内分配分别呈双峰型和单峰型分布,中雪等级以上的降雪多发生在冬末春初。年降雪量增加,年降雪日数(降雪强度)显著减少(减小);降雪日数的显著减少主要表现为微量降雪日数和小雪日数的减少,尤其是微量降雪日数,降雪强度的显著增大主要是暴雪强度的增大。1960s和1970s为降雪偏多时段,1990s以来降雪量增加,降雪日数减少。不同区域各级降雪占总降雪的比例,辽东地区以微量降雪日数最大,其他区域均以小雪日数和暴雪降雪量最大。全省降雪量有65.4%站点呈增加趋势,降雪日数96.2%的站点呈减少趋势,降雪强度90.4%站点呈增大趋势,辽西地区降雪变率要大于辽东山区。小雪降雪量和微量降雪日数贡献率均呈下降趋势,其他不同等级降雪贡献率均呈上升趋势。随着纬度升高(海拔增高),总降雪量(降雪日数)和各等级降雪量(降雪日数)均增加,总降雪强度和小雪强度减小。  相似文献   

3.
1961 - 2017年中国东北地区降雪时空演变特征分析   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  
利用东北地区162个气象台站逐日降水量和天气现象数据, 采用统计分析方法, 对近57年（1961 - 2017年）降雪的气候特征和时空演变规律进行了分析。结果表明： 降雪量和降雪日数最多出现在12月, 小雪和中雪最多出现在11月或12月, 大雪和暴雪在冬末春初出现概率最高。降雪分布为山地大于平原, 平原地区自北向南、 自东向西减少, 降雪高值区主要位于大兴安岭北部、 小兴安岭和长白山区, 降雪强度中心位于长白山区和辽宁中部平原地区。年、 秋季、 冬季、 春季降雪量占同期降水量比例分别为4.7%、 7.0%、 84.4%和7.6%; 辽宁省西部山区和南部大连地区日最大降雪量占年总降雪量比例最高, 最长连续降雪日数在2 d以下, 降雪较高纬度地区更为集中。近57年降雪量和降雪强度分别以1.93 mm?（10a）-1和0.11 mm?d-1?（10a）-1的速率显著增加, 降雪日数以2.08 d?（10a）-1速率显著减少; 降雪量增加主要表现为各等级降雪量的增加, 降雪日数减少主要是微量和小雪日数的减少, 降雪强度增加主要为大雪和暴雪降雪强度的增加。年、 秋季和冬季降雪量占同期降水量比例平均每10年增加0.36%、 0.48%和0.45%, 春季以0.11%?（10a）-1的速率减少。中雪、 大雪和暴雪对降雪贡献率均呈增加趋势, 小雪降雪量和微量降雪日数贡献率减少; 1987年降雪量和降雪日数突变后, 微量降雪日数和暴雪日数、 小雪降雪量贡献率改变显著。就区域平均而言, 2001 - 2017年的降雪量较1961 - 1980年增加了27.8%, 降雪日数减少了22.4%。  相似文献   

4.
Heavy snowfalls can pose natural hazards in the North American Great Lakes region. Maximum annual snowfalls are presented from an extensive data base at 82 long-period-of-record stations. In the absence of site-specific information, these data should be useful to designers, planners, and resource managers in the region. A relationship exists between maximum snowfalls and latitude because the northern Great Lakes climate is cooler and drier than the climate of the southern Great Lakes. A relationship between longitude and maximum snowfalls appears to be based on the longitudinal variation of precipitable water vapor aloft. No apparent relationship exists between maximum snowfall and elevation when station data are analyzed without regard to data from lake-effect zones. However, when one lake-effect region was analyzed in detail, an orographic effect was clearly evident in both maximum and average annual snowfalls.  相似文献   

5.
A severe sea-effect snow episode over the city of Istanbul   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
In February 2005, unexpected heavy snowstorms lasted a couple of days with changing intensities, producing significant snowfall that eventually paralyzed the life of Istanbul metropolis. Surprisingly, there was no caution announcement prior to the onset of this unusual weather phenomenon. What was the reason behind this wrong prediction? In this case study, using a meteorological model, a heavy sea-effect snowfall, the reason of this phenomenon, was simulated and researched. With a persistent surface high-pressure center over western Russia, a surface low-pressure positioned in the center of southern Turkey was the dominant feature of the formation of the sea-effect snow over the city. In addition to strong northerly winds (19 m/s), low directional vertical wind shear (<30o) and extremely long fetch distance (~600 km) feature; environmental conditions during the event were characterized by a sea-surface 850-hPa temperature difference of up to 14°C and a sea–land temperature difference as high as 24°C.  相似文献   

6.
The past 15 years has been characterized by a high density of record-breaking weather extremes in Europe. These include the extratropical cyclones Lothar, Kyrill and Xynthia across western and mid Europe; the major floods in the UK, Germany and eastern Europe; the heat waves in 2003 and 2007 and, after a long period of mild winters, the heavy winter seasons in 2009/2010 and 2010/2011. Inspired by the rising trends in weather-related damages worldwide and the studies on the topic carried out in overseas, the EC funded the sister projects such as Weather Extremes-Assessing the Impacts on Transport and Hazards for European Regions (WEATHER), EWENT and ECCONET to determine the magnitude of current and future risks to the European transport sector and to assess suitable adaptation strategies. This paper presents the assessment framework of the WEATHER project and the results of weather-inflicted damage costs now and in 2040–2050. Total annual damages are found to be around €2.5 billion, which largely attribute to road traffic. However, broken down to passenger and ton kilometers the highest risk is borne by rail traffic due to its expensive infrastructures and its comparably complex operating structure. This indication even amplifies when looking four decades ahead: while average road transport costs will only raise by 7 % due to milder winters, rail traffic costs may increase by up to 80 % due to more floods and less predictable winter periods. A comparison with the results of the EWENT study uncovers a high range of uncertainty concerning methodological approaches and data treatment. Thus, the final figures might even be much higher.  相似文献   

7.
Severe weather can have serious repercussions in the transport sector as a whole by increasing the number of accidents, injuries and other damage, as well as leading to highly increased travel times. This study, a component of the EU FP7 Project EWENT, delineates a Europe-wide climatology of adverse and extreme weather events that can be expected to affect the transport network. We first define and classify the relevant severe weather events by investigating the effects of hazardous conditions on different transportation modes and the infrastructure. Consideration is given to individual phenomena such as snowfall, heavy precipitation, heat waves, cold spells, wind gusts; a combined phenomenon, the blizzard, is also considered. The frequency of severe weather events, together with the changes in their spatial extension and intensity, is analyzed based on the E-OBS dataset (1971–2000) and the ERA-Interim reanalysis dataset (1989–2010). Northern Europe and the Alpine region are the areas most impacted by winter extremes, such as snowfall, cold spells and winter storms, the frequency of heavy snowfall. The frequency of hot days is highest in Southern Europe. Severe winds and blizzards are the most common over the Atlantic and along its shores. Although heavy rainfall may affect the whole continent on an annual basis, extreme precipitation events are relative sparse, affecting particularly the Alps and the Atlantic coastline. A European regionalization covering similar impacts on the transport network is performed.  相似文献   

8.
地面积雪测量与雨量器量测降雪量一致性实验研究   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文
杨大庆 《水科学进展》1992,3(2):136-141
1989年10月至1990年5月间的8个降水时段的对比测量表明,乌鲁木齐河源高山区空冰斗小流域内雨量器冬季测量的降雪量约为地面积雪测量所得实际降雪量的73%,二者的测量结果不具有一致性,因此,雨量器的测量值不能代表地面实际降雪量.在流域水量平衡和融雪径流计算中,必须首先修正降雪量测量的系统误差.  相似文献   

9.
卫星遥感首次监测到准噶尔盆地西北部的冬季融雪洪水   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
2010年1月,新疆北部出现了多次寒潮和60a一遇的连续暴雪天气.在此期间,准噶尔盆地西北部的裕民县及其邻近地区2010年1月6日出现了融雪型洪水.2010年1月裕民降雪量高达95mm,较历年同期偏多5.8倍,突破历史极值;2010年1月1—20日裕民日平均气温均方差达6.5℃,气温升降剧烈,变化幅度大.通过EOS/MODIS卫星遥感监测发现,2010年1月5日裕民县及其邻近地区地表有明显成片的液态水痕迹,而在其前后时段该地区为积雪覆盖.2010年1月,裕民县出现极端降雪事件的同时,极端暖事件与极端冷事件交替出现,隆冬时节的异常升温造成阶段气温异常偏高,引发冬季融雪型洪水.气候变暖背景下,需加强对新疆区域极端天气气候事件的监测、分析及其形成机理的研究,加强区域气候变化影响评估工作,采取切实可行的措施应对气候变化.  相似文献   

10.
A series of detailed small-scale tests have been made to investigate the use of short delays to promote better fragmentation caused by shock wave interactions. The block design had a size of 650/660 × 205 × 300 mm (L × W × H) and two rows with five Ø 10-mm blastholes in each row. The spacing (S) and burden (B) were 110 and 70 mm, respectively, giving an S/B ratio of 1.6. The results showed no distinct differences or high improvements of the fragmentation when the delays were in the time range of interactions compared with no shock wave interactions. The decrease of x 50 (mean size) was around 20 % at a delay time ~1.1 ms/m burden compared with longer delays like 2 ms/m. A statistical analysis of the results has been made to evaluate the minimum at short delays and it is not significant.  相似文献   

11.
Jon Shaw  William Walton 《Geoforum》2003,34(2):141-156
British Rail was privatised by the Conservative government of 1992-1997. This privatisation was driven primarily by political ideology and there is little to suggest the policy was implemented as part of an integrated transport strategy designed to encourage modal shift from road to rail. Since privatisation, however, passenger numbers and freight shipments have risen in absolute and relative terms and the current Labour administration has stated that its transport strategy offers the potential for a ‘railway renaissance’. In this paper, we question whether, four years on from the publication of the new strategy, such a renaissance--that is, a 50% increase in passenger kilometres and an 80% increase in freight kilometres by 2010, along with a degree of modal shift to rail from car and lorry--can be achieved given recent developments both within the rail industry and in government transport policy.  相似文献   

12.
利用青藏高原55个气象站1971-2011年冬季（12月-翌年2月）逐月降雪量资料分析了冬季降雪的气候特征,得到高原冬季降雪总体上呈现东部和南部多、西北部和雅鲁藏布江中段少雪的分布特征,相对变率分布与降雪的分布几乎相反且变率大,以30°N为界高原降雪存在南北反相的变化趋势即北部降雪有所增加而南部减少.用旋转经验正交函数REOF结合相关分析进行降雪分区的基础上,重点分析了近40 a来高原降雪的演变特征和长期气候趋势.结果表明：降雪分布清楚地反映了高原的地理特征和气候特点,即高原南部迎风坡、冷暖气流交汇处降雪多,而背风坡、北部降雪少;近40 a降雪呈现“少-多-少”趋势,1980-1990年代期间降雪明显偏多,大约1970年代中期发生了由少雪到多雪的突变现象,其中南部2个区分别在2007年和1988年出现了降雪减少的突变现象;降雪具有显著的准14 a年代际变化和准8 a周期变化,且存在年代际特征.  相似文献   

13.
Quantifying rock fall hazards requires information about their frequency and volumes. Previous studies have focused on quantifying rock fall volume–frequency relationships or the weather conditions antecedent to rock fall occurrences, and their potential use as prediction tools. This paper is focused on quantifying rock fall occurrence probabilities and presents approaches for quantifying rock fall temporal distributions. In particular, von Mises distributions allow direct correlation between seasonal weather variations and rock fall occurrences. The approaches are illustrated using a rock fall database along a railway corridor in the Canadian Cordillera, in which rock fall occurrences were correlated to the morphology and lithology. A Binomial probability distribution applied to the annual rock fall frequency suggests an average daily rock fall probability of 1 × 10?2 across the study area. However, circular (von Mises) distributions associated with weather trends in the area, and fitted to monthly rock fall records, allow estimation of daily rock fall probabilities in different months. This approach allows a direct correlation between rock fall frequencies and seasonal variations in weather conditions. The results suggest daily rock fall probabilities between 4 × 10?3 and 8 × 10?3 for April through July and up to 2.1 × 10?2 in October. Moreover, local peaks in rock fall monthly records are quantitatively explained through the seasonality of weather conditions. Similar values are obtained when applying the Binomial distribution to monthly records. However, this last approach does not show strong distribution fits and does not allow a correlation between rock fall frequencies and seasonal weather variations.  相似文献   

14.
Snow avalanches are a major natural hazard for road users and infrastructure in northern Gaspésie. Over the past 11 years, the occurrence of nearly 500 snow avalanches on the two major roads servicing the area was reported. No management program is currently operational. In this study, we analyze the weather patterns promoting snow avalanche initiation and use logistic regression (LR) to calculate the probability of avalanche occurrence on a daily basis. We then test the best LR models over the 2012–2013 season in an operational forecasting perspective: Each day, the probability of occurrence (0–100%) determined by the model was classified into five classes avalanche danger scale. Our results show that avalanche occurrence along the coast is best predicted by 2 days of accrued snowfall [in water equivalent (WE)], daily rainfall, and wind speed. In the valley, the most significant predictive variables are 3 days of accrued snowfall (WE), daily rainfall, and the preceding 2 days of thermal amplitude. The large scree slopes located along the coast and exposed to strong winds tend to be more reactive to direct snow accumulation than the inner-valley slopes. Therefore, the probability of avalanche occurrence increases rapidly during a snowfall. The slopes located in the valley are less responsive to snow loading. The LR models developed prove to be an efficient tool to forecast days with high levels of snow avalanche activity. Finally, we discuss how road maintenance managers can use this forecasting tool to improve decision making and risk rendering on a daily basis.  相似文献   

15.
Effects of sediment extraction and dam construction on changes of riverbed characteristics over yearly to decadal scales in the lower Tedori River of Japan are clarified. Over 1950–1991, the riverbed degraded in excess of 0.5–3.5 m. Concurrently, riverbed sediment volume of the 0–16 km reach decreased by 12.7 × 106 m3. Intensive sediment extraction was the dominant cause of riverbed degradation during the period. During 1991–2007, an increase in riverbed sediment volume of 0.6 × 106 m3 resulted in accretion of the riverbed by average depth 0.04 m. The cessation of sand and gravel mining (SGM), coupled with Tedorigawa Dam operation since 1980, was responsible for that accretion. Temporal change in riverbed elevation during 1950–2007 indicates that there were five phases of vertical adjustment. Combination of nonlinear regression models described four of these phases well. During 1950–1979, the first four modes of empirical orthogonal function analysis successfully captured temporal and spatial responses of the riverbed to natural and anthropogenic impacts. That is, the first mode explained the mean riverbed profile and temporal variation in riverbed sediment volume. The second through fourth spatial eigenfunctions reflected spatial variation in vertical adjustment rate for phases II, III and I, respectively. The corresponding temporal eigenfunctions explained the respective effects on the riverbed of SGM, of imbalance between sediment transport capacity and sediment supply, and of dredging activity.  相似文献   

16.
The assessment of the current impacts of extreme weather conditions on transport systems reveals high costs in specific locations. Prominent examples for Europe are the economic consequences of the harsh winter periods 2009/2010 and 2010/2011 and the floods in Austria, Eastern Europe, Germany and the United Kingdom in 2005 and 2007. Departing from the EC-funded project WEATHER, this paper delves into the subject of adaptation strategies by revisiting the project’s general findings on adaptation strategies and by adding two specific cases: (1) advanced winter maintenance on roads in southwest Germany and (2) technical and organizational measures in Alpine rail transport. For these two cases, feasible adaptation strategies are elaborated and their potential is discussed in light of damage cost forecasts up to 2050. For the road sector, we find a high potential to mitigate weather-related costs, although damages here are expected to decline. In contrast, rail systems face strongly increasing damages and the mitigation options offered by improved information and communication systems seem to be largely exploited. Consequently, it is easier to justify expensive adaptation measures for high-cost rail infrastructures than for road transport. A generic analysis of 14 damage cases worldwide, however, revealed that generally awareness raising, cooperation and communication strategies are sufficient to mitigate the most severe damages by natural disasters.  相似文献   

17.
Arenal volcano is nearly unique among arc volcanoes with its 42 year long (1968–2010) continuous, small-scale activity erupting compositionally monotonous basaltic andesites that also dominate the entire, ~7000 year long, eruptive history. Only mineral zoning records reveal that basaltic andesites are the result of complex, open-system processes deriving minerals from a variety of crystallization environments and including the episodic injections of basalt. The condition of the mafic input as well as the generation of crystal-rich basaltic andesites of the recent, 1968–2010, and earlier eruptions were addressed by an experimental study at 200 MPa, 900–1,050 °C, oxidizing and fluid-saturated conditions with various fluid compositions [H2O/(H2O + CO2) = 0.3–1]. Phase equilibria were determined using a phenocryst-poor (~3 vol%) Arenal-like basalt (50.5?wt% SiO2) from a nearby scoria cone containing olivine (Fo92), plagioclase (An86), clinopyroxene (Mg# = 82) and magnetite (Xulvö = 0.13). Experimental melts generally reproduce observed compositional trends among Arenal samples. Small differences between experimental melts and natural rocks can be explained by open-system processes. At low pressure (200 MPa), the mineral assemblage as well as the mineral compositions of the natural basalt were reproduced at 1,000 °C and high water activity. The residual melt at these conditions is basaltic andesitic (55 wt% SiO2) with 5 wt% H2O. The evolution to more evolved magmas observed at Arenal occurred under fluid-saturated conditions but variable fluid compositions. At 1,000 °C and 200 MPa, a decrease of water content by approximately 1 wt% induces significant changes of the mineral assemblage from olivine + clinopyroxene + plagioclase (5 wt% H2O in the melt) to clinopyroxene + plagioclase + orthopyroxene (4 wt% H2O in the melt). Both assemblages are observed in crystal-rich basalt (15 vol%) and basaltic andesites. Experimental data indicate that the lack of orthopyroxene and the presence of amphibole, also observed in basaltic andesitic tephra units, is due to crystallization at nearly water-saturated conditions and temperatures lower than 950 °C. The enigmatic two compositional groups previously known as low- and high-Al2O3 samples at Arenal volcano may be explained by low- and high-pressure crystallization, respectively. Using high-Al as signal of deeper crystallization, first magmas of the 1968–2010 eruption evolved deep in the crust and ascent was relatively fast leaving little time for significant compositional overprint by shallower level crystallization.  相似文献   

18.
利用鲁东南地区18个代表站1961-2015年的逐日降水量、逐日天气现象、积雪深度资料,对近55 a来降雪的气候特征进行了统计分析。结果表明：鲁东南地区年均降雪日数、强降雪日数、降雪量、强降雪量及年均雪深、年最大积雪深度的空间分布总体上山区多于平原和沿海,区域差异明显。21世纪00年代以前为多雪时期,以后为少雪时期。近55 a的年均降雪日数、强降雪日数、降雪量、强降雪量及年均雪深、年最大积雪深度皆呈减少趋势,降雪由多转少的转折年份均在1993年,年均雪深、年最大积雪深度的减少分别出现在1987年、1986年。鲁东南地区降雪主要集中在1-2月份,3月份强降雪量最大,平均雪深、最大积雪深度的最大月份分别出现在11月份、3月份。降雪时段为10月23日-次年4月28日,降雪的初终日西北部山区皆为最早。降雪日数、强降雪日数、降雪量、强降雪量、雪深均存在3 a的周期,最大积雪深度存在4～5 a的周期。  相似文献   

19.
ABSTRACT

Zircon U–Pb ages, major element and trace element compositions, and Sr, Nd, and Pb isotopic compositions for late Mesozoic granites from the southern Jiaodong Peninsula (eastern China) were determined. Ages for the Wulianshan, Xiaozhushan, and Dazhushan plutons are 119.1–122.3, 114.2, and 108.9 Ma, respectively. Major and trace element characteristics show that these granitic rocks belong to alkaline, A-type granites formed in an extensional setting. Trace element compositions show strong, variable negative anomalies in Ba, K, P and Ti, and positive anomalies in Rb, Th, U, Pb, Ce, Zr, and Hf, which are typical characteristics of A-type granites. Variable Sr and Nd isotopic compositions, 87Sr/86Sr(i) = 0.70540–0.7071 and εNd(t) = ?14.5 to ?20.9. Whole-rock Pb isotopic compositions have the following ranges, (206Pb/204Pb)t = 15.707–16.561, (207Pb/204Pb)t = 15.376–16.462, and (208Pb/204Pb)t = 36.324 to 37.064. Isotopic modelling indicates an origin that lies between mantle tapped by Cenozoic basalts around the Tan-Lu megafault and lower continental crust (LCC), and which can be explained by mixing of 11–18% mantle and 82–89% LCC. Based on new and compiled data, we suggest that the southern Jiaodong Peninsula, as well as the Laoshan area, was in a regional extensional setting of an orogenic belt during 106–126 Ma. The granitic rocks may be the result of late Mesozoic lithospheric thinning and decratonization (i.e. late Mesozoic craton destruction event occurring throughout eastern China).  相似文献   

20.
Sabkhas are dominant geomorphic features in eastern Saudi Arabia and are of geologic and economic significance. Seismic refraction method was used in the inland sabkha of Jayb Uwayyid to depict its general stratigraphy and determine velocities and thicknesses of the sabkha’s uppermost layers and the water table depth. Data were acquired using a reversed-refraction profile consisting of 48 receivers spaced at 5 m. Data processing included amplitude gain, band-pass filtering, and manual picking of first and second arrivals. Interpretation of the data shows three main layers. The first layer is a sandy layer having an average velocity and thickness of 600 m/s and 15 m, respectively. The second layer has an average velocity and thickness of 2,300 m/s and 113 m, respectively. The third layer has an average velocity of 3,850 m/s. The topmost part of the first layer is composed of a dry to partially saturated clean sand underlain by fully saturated clean sand. However, arrivals from the interface between the partially saturated and fully saturated sands were not recognizable in any shot record, which might be due to the gradual increase of saturation with depth. Arrivals from the second layer were always recognizable on all shot records as first arrivals. On the other hand, arrivals from the third layer were not recognizable on any shot record as first arrivals probably due to the limited extent of the profile relative to the depth of the third layer. Therefore, the velocity of the third layer was calculated by manually picking the second head wave arrival.  相似文献   

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