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1.
Self-protective behavior by residents of flood-prone urban areas can reduce monetary flood damage by 80%, and reduce the need for public risk management. But, research on the determinants of private households’ prevention of damage by natural hazards is rare, especially in Germany. To answer the question of why some people take precautionary action while others do not, a socio-psychological model based on Protection Motivation Theory (PMT) is developed, explaining private precautionary damage prevention by residents’ perceptions of previous flood experience, risk of future floods, reliability of public flood protection, the efficacy and costs of self-protective behavior, their perceived ability to perform these actions, and non-protective responses like wishful thinking. The validity of the proposed model is explored by means of representative quantitative telephone surveys and regression analyses, and compared with a socio-economic model (including residents’ age, gender, income, school degree and being owner or tenant). Participants were 157 residents of flood-prone homes in Cologne, Germany, a city that has traditionally been subject to minor and major flood events. Results of the study show the explanatory power of the socio-psychological model, with important implications for public risk communication efforts. To motivate residents in flood-prone areas to take their share in damage prevention, it is essential to communicate not only the risk of flooding and its potential consequences, but also the possibility, effectiveness and cost of private precautionary measures.  相似文献   

2.
Flood risk perception in lands “protected” by 100-year levees   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  
Ludy  Jessica  Kondolf  G. Matt 《Natural Hazards》2012,61(2):829-842
Under the US National Flood Insurance Program, lands behind levees certified as protecting against the 100-year flood are considered to be out of the officially recognized “floodplain.” However, such lands are still vulnerable to flooding that exceeds the design capacity of the levees—known as residual risk. In the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta of California, we encounter the curious situation that lands below sea level are considered not “floodplain” and open to residential and commercial development because they are “protected” by levees. Residents are not informed that they are at risk from floods, because officially they are not in the floodplain. We surveyed residents of a recently constructed subdivision in Stockton, California, to assess their awareness of their risk of flooding. Median household income in the development was $80,000, 70% of respondents had a 4-year university degree or higher, and the development was ethnically mixed. Despite the levels of education and income, they did not understand the risk of being flooded. Given that literature shows informed individuals are more likely to take preventative measures than uninformed individuals, our results have important implications for flood policy. Climate-change-induced sea-level rise exacerbates the problems posed by increasing urbanization and aging infrastructure, increasing the threat of catastrophic flooding in the California Delta and in flood-prone areas worldwide.  相似文献   

3.
The low risk awareness of the residents living in flood-prone areas is usually considered among the main causes of their low preparedness, which in turns generates inadequate response to natural disasters. In this paper, we challenge this assumption by reporting on the results of a sociological research in four communities exposed to flood risk in the Eastern Italian Alps. The research design included semi-structured interviews and focus groups with key local stakeholders and a standardized questionnaire submitted to 400 residents. Results revealed that residents felt both slightly worried about flood risk and slightly prepared to face an event. Considerable differences were found between the evaluations of individual subjects as opposed to overall communities. There was also a clear discrepancy between the actual adoption of household preparatory measures and the willingness to take self-protection actions. Overall, the risk awareness was significantly higher among those residents who had been personally affected by a flood in the past, were living in isolated (vs. urban) communities, in the most risky areas or had a lower level of trust in local authorities. The improvement of residents?? knowledge about their environment and the residual risk seemed to be crucial to increase risk awareness, and the same was true for the strengthening of local support networks to foster preparedness. The link between risk awareness and preparedness was not at all straightforward. Results revealed instead the complexity of residents?? perspectives, attitudes, behaviours and decisions about risk-related issues.  相似文献   

4.
Australia is currently experiencing climate change effects in the form of higher temperatures and more frequent extreme events, such as floods. Floods are its costliest form of natural disaster accounting for losses estimated at over $300 million per annum. This article presents an historical case study of climate adaptation of an Australian town that is subject to frequent flooding. Charleville is a small, inland rural town in Queensland situated on an extensive flood plain, with no significant elevated areas available for relocation. The study aimed to gain an understanding of the vulnerability, resilience and adaptive capacity of this community by studying the 2008 flood event. Structured questionnaires were administered in personal interviews in February 2010 to householders and businesses affected by the 2008 flood, and to institutional personnel servicing the region (n = 91). Data were analysed using appropriate quantitative and qualitative techniques. Charleville was found to be staunchly resilient, with high levels of organisation and cooperation, and well-developed and functioning social and institutional networks. The community is committed to remaining in the town despite the prospect of continued future flooding. Its main vulnerabilities included low levels of insurance cover (32% residents, 43% businesses had cover) and limited monitoring data to warn of impending flooding. Detailed flood modelling and additional river height gauging stations are needed to enable more targeted evacuations. Further mitigation works (e.g., investigate desilting Bradley’s Gully and carry out an engineering assessment) and more affordable insurance products are needed. Regular information on how residents can prepare for floods and the roles different organisations play are suggested. A key finding was that residents believe they have a personal responsibility for preparation and personal mitigation activities, and these activities contribute substantially to Charleville’s ability to respond to and cope with flood events. More research into the psychological impacts of floods is recommended. Charleville is a valuable representation of climate change adaptation and how communities facing natural disasters should organise and operate.  相似文献   

5.
Kevin D. Ash 《GeoJournal》2017,82(3):533-552
Occupants of mobile or manufactured homes in the United States of America (USA) are highly exposed and susceptible to injury or death from tornado hazards. This problem is most pronounced in the southern and eastern USA, where tornadoes are frequent and mobile homes comprise upwards of 15 % of the housing stock. Recognizing this vulnerability, emergency management entities and the USA National Weather Service often recommend that mobile home residents evacuate to a nearby sturdy building or a specially-built tornado shelter when tornadoes threaten their communities. Previous research suggests, however, that only 30 % of residents follow this recommendation. In this research I aim to provide insight as to why many mobile home residents seldom undertake the suggested course of action for tornadoes. Using excerpts from twenty semi-structured interviews conducted during 2013 in South Carolina, I show that some individuals understand physical characteristics of tornadoes very differently than experts do. In addition, mobile home residents may also hold views that differ from experts about the ability of their homes to withstand tornadic winds and debris. Even if mobile home occupants pay close attention to thunderstorm hazards and might be willing to evacuate, they may prioritize protective actions for lightning or flash flooding over those recommended for tornadoes. Finally, the interviews reveal that there is much confusion over where to go, when to leave, and which route to take to arrive safely at a sheltering place for tornado hazards. I discuss some of the potential ramifications of the findings for theory and practice and suggest how future research might build on this work.  相似文献   

6.
Catastrophic flooding associated with sea-level rise and change of hurricane patterns has put the northeastern coastal regions of the United States at a greater risk. In this paper, we predict coastal flooding at the east bank of Delaware Bay and analyze the resulting impact on residents and transportation infrastructure. The three-dimensional coastal ocean model FVCOM coupled with a two-dimensional shallow water model is used to simulate hydrodynamic flooding from coastal ocean water with fine-resolution meshes, and a topography-based hydrologic method is applied to estimate inland flooding due to precipitation. The entire flooded areas with a range of storm intensity (i.e., no storm, 10-, and 50-year storm) and sea-level rise (i.e., current, 10-, and 50-year sea level) are thus determined. The populations in the study region in 10 and 50 years are predicted using an economic-demographic model. With the aid of ArcGIS, detailed analysis of affected population and transportation systems including highway networks, railroads, and bridges is presented for all of the flood scenarios. It is concluded that sea-level rise will lead to a substantial increase in vulnerability of residents and transportation infrastructure to storm floods, and such a flood tends to affect more population in Cape May County but more transportation facilities in Cumberland County, New Jersey.  相似文献   

7.
Understanding and improving the public perception has become an important element in the management of flood risk worldwide. In Iceland, studying perception of flood hazard and flood risk is, however, in its early stages. This paper presents a case study on the public perception of flood hazard and flood risk in an Icelandic town prone to ice-jam floods. Awareness of the population regarding historical inundations, self estimation of flood risk and worry is considered. The factual knowledge of the residents is deconstructed in flood hazard parameters accessible to the lay population: number of events, dates, genesis and boundaries. The performance of the respondents is rated for each parameter and the influence of several predictors evaluated. The research shows three significant patterns: there is poor awareness and little worry about historical inundations in the area; experience of the past flooding events in town is the most effective source of knowledge; awareness, risk estimation and worry are not correlated.  相似文献   

8.
This article explores how the causes and impacts of a flood event as perceived by local people shape immediate responses and future mitigation efforts in mountainous northwest Vietnam. Local flood perception is contrasted with scientific perspectives to determine whether a singular flood event will trigger adjustments in mitigation strategies in an otherwise rarely flood-affected area. We present findings from interdisciplinary research drawing on both socioeconomic and biophysical data. Evidence suggests that individual farmers?? willingness to engage in flood mitigation is curbed by the common perception that flooding is caused by the interplay of a bundle of external factors, with climatic factors and water management failures being the most prominent ones. Most farmers did not link the severity of flooding to existing land use systems, thus underlining the lack of a sense of personal responsibility among farmers for flood mitigation measures. We conclude that local governments cannot depend on there being a sufficient degree of intrinsic motivation among farmers to make them implement soil conservation techniques to mitigate future flooding. Policy makers will need to design measures to raise farmers?? awareness of the complex interplay between land use and hydrology and to enhance collective action in soil conservation by providing appropriate incentives and implementing coherent long-term strategies.  相似文献   

9.
Davlasheridze  Meri  Miao  Qing 《Natural Hazards》2021,109(1):63-88

Climate- and weather-related disasters have become increasingly frequent and costly, resulting in substantial government spending on disaster assistance. Yet less is known about the effectiveness of disaster aid in enhancing community resilience to future disaster risks. This study examines multiple post-disaster aid programs implemented by the US federal government to support state and local governments as well as households and private businesses. Specifically, we estimate the risk-mitigating effects of these disaster-related programs by linking program spending with reported economic losses from flooding. Our empirical analysis utilizing panel data at the county level finds that low-interest disaster loans lead to the largest reduction in subsequent flooding damage, and grants targeting public infrastructure restoration and flood control measures also reduce future flooding losses. Results suggest a limited loss-mitigating effect of disaster cash aid given to private individuals. These findings provide important implications for federal disaster policy design and suggest that more efficiency gains could be realized by redistributing funds and streamlining processes across programs and agencies.

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10.
Although the risk of flooding poses a serious threat to the Dutch public, citizens are not very inclined to engage in self-protective behaviors. Current risk communication tries to enhance these self-protective behaviors among citizens, but is nonetheless not very successful. The level of citizens engaging in self-protective actions remains rather low. Therefore, this research strives to determine the factors that might enhance or lessen the intention to engage in self-protection among citizens. The study was a 2 (flood risk: high vs low) × 2 (efficacy beliefs: high vs low) between subject experiment. It was conducted to test how varying levels of flood risk and efficacy beliefs influence two different self-protective behaviors, namely information seeking and the intention to engage in risk mitigating or preventive behaviors. Furthermore, the relationship between information seeking and the intention to take self-protective actions was discussed. Results showed that high levels of flood risk lead to higher levels of both information seeking and the intention to engage in self-protective behaviors than low levels of flood risk. For efficacy beliefs, the same trend occurred. Also, results showed that information seeking seems to coincide with the intention to take preventive actions and acted as a mediator between the levels of perceived risk and efficacy and the intention to take self-protective actions.  相似文献   

11.
The number and intensity of water-related disasters are increasing tremendously. Floods and inundations in the Mediterranean countries are often caused by torrential rains. In Algeria, floods have left more than 1000 dead and caused loss of around 550 million euros. In Mekerra Basin, northwestern Algeria, the flooding risk is growing. This paper diagnoses the causes and the flood damage that generates Wadi Mekerra. Besides, the legislative texts are also discussed. Predicting the flooding risk is done through numerical modeling of two typical flood waves. It is a comparison between two numerical models, Van Leer finite volume scheme and Petrov Galarkin finite element scheme with recorded hydrographs. Based on these results, several additional actions are recommended at the end of this work.  相似文献   

12.
Current flood protection policies in the Netherlands are based on design water levels. This concept does not allow for a proper evaluation of costs and benefits of flood protection. Hence, research is being carried out on the introduction of a flood risk approach, which looks into both the probability of flooding and the consequences of flooding. This research is being carried out within the framework of a major project called the Floris project (FLOod RISk in the Netherlands). To assess the probability of flooding the Floris project distinguishes different failure modes for dikes and structures within the dike ring. Based on a probabilistic analysis of both loads and resistance the probability of failure is determined for each failure mode. Subsequently the probabilities of failure for different failure modes and dike sections are integrated into an estimate of the probability of flooding of the dike ring as a whole. In addition the Floris project looks into the different consequences of flooding, specifically the economic damages and the number of casualties to be expected in case of flooding of a particular dike ring. The paper describes the approach in the Floris project to assess the flood risk of dike rings in the Netherlands. One of the characteristics of the Floris project is the explicit attention to different types of uncertainties in assessing the probability of flooding. The paper discusses the different starting-points adopted and presents an outline on how the Floris project will deal with uncertainties in the analysis of weak spots in a dike ring as well as in the cost benefit analysis of flood alleviation measures.  相似文献   

13.
In the last five decades, many informal communities in Accra, Ghana have suffered from annual flood hazards. Residents of these communities appear to have successfully resisted evictions by city authorities; survived flood hazards and poor environmental health conditions. These flood affected households continue to survive with increasing housing and population densities in the face of these annual floods. Are they becoming resilient? Have residents built adaptive capacities through learning experiences from previous flood occurrences and evictions attempts? What has produced and continued to shape their responses to flooding? What can be learned from this supposed grassroots resilience to inform flood management in urban Africa? Using case studies of three informal communities of Glefe, Agbogbloshie and Old Fadama, this paper explores the gradual and evolving adaptive capacities and social resilience to flood hazards among poor urban dwellers. The paper reveals the depth of understanding and embodied nature of flood experiences among affected slum dwellers and how these are gradually being transformed into adaptive capacities and shaping their responses. In the absence of efficient state flood interventions, there are emerging and enduring flood responses and adaptation practices shaped by residents’ social networks, political alliances and sense of place. These responses translates into continuous re-structuring of housing units, construction of communal drains, creation of local evacuation teams and safe havens. Urban policy contributions that can be learned from these emerging grassroots capacities for flood vulnerability management have been proposed.  相似文献   

14.
Whitman  Z. R.  Wilson  T. M.  Seville  E.  Vargo  J.  Stevenson  J. R.  Kachali  H.  Cole  J. 《Natural Hazards》2013,65(3):1849-1861
A methodology for evaluating real-time optimal reservoir releases under flooding conditions that minimizes flood damages for a river-reservoir system is described in this paper. The problem is formulated as a discrete-time optimal control problem in which reservoir releases are the control variables, and water surface elevations and discharges are the state variables. Constraints imposed on the reservoir’s water surface elevations and reservoir releases to the downstream reaches are incorporated into an objective function using a penalty function method. The optimal control model consists of the two primary interfaced components: (1) the U.S. Geological Survey Full EQuation routing model to simulate the unsteady flow dynamics of the river-reservoir system and (2) an optimization technique, simulated annealing that optimizes reservoir releases (flood control gate operations) subject to system constraints. The model solves an augmented control problem. The model was applied to the river-reservoir system of Lake Travis on the Lower Colorado River in Texas. The model application to Lake Travis revealed the usefulness of the model in improving a given operation policy, regardless of the type objective function (linear or nonlinear). The methodology and the operation model developed here are unique since they can be applied to any river-reservoir system, do not require simplification of nonlinearities, and guarantee the determination of an optimal or near-global optima.  相似文献   

15.
Rasid  Harun  Haider  Wolfgang 《Natural Hazards》2003,28(1):101-129
A maximum difference conjoint (MDC) model was part of a questionnaire toassess floodplain residents' preferences for the outcomes of water level managementinside an enclosed embankment system on the left bank of the Dhaleswari River, calledthe Compartmentalization Pilot Project (CPP)-Tangail. The outcomes were described as(a) varied flood depths in the rice field, (b) incidence of flooding on the courtyard andinside homes, (c) changes in floodplain and culture fisheries, and (d) varied conditionsof drainage congestion. Following a standard survey, the respondents from inside andoutside a completed section of the compartment (Cluster 1b) were shown profiles of these flood management outcomes and were asked to indicate for each profile the one most preferred and the one least preferred item. The results of the study indicated that the respondents had a clear preference for preventing flooding of their homes and courtyards and for an ideal water depth of 2 ft in the aman rice fields. At the same time, they also showed a strong concern about malfunctioning of sluices and to a lesser extent about the changes in the fish habitat. The successful application of the MDC as an approach to model tradeoffs among rural residents of Bangladesh shows that a relatively complex quantitative survey method, incorporating choice cards as pictograms, can be applied successfully even in a developing country.  相似文献   

16.
论防洪减灾非工程措施的定义与分类   总被引：5，自引：1，他引：5       下载免费PDF全文
刘国纬 《水科学进展》2003,14(1):98-103
基于人与洪水的相互关系,将防洪减灾非工程措施定义为:通过约束人类自身行为,以改善人与洪水关系,从而达到防洪减灾目的的一种措施,并阐述其内涵;根据这一定义,将防洪减灾非工程措施分为四类,即基于洪水物理属性的非工程措施、基于洪水风险的非工程措施、基于管理科学的非工程措施、基于政策与法规的非工程措施,并阐述各类非工程措施所体现的防洪策略思想和要点。指出蓄滞洪区是具有工程措施与非工程措施双重属性的防洪减灾措施。  相似文献   

17.
Based on the questionnaire survey, this paper analyzes China’s public perception of climate change in terms of several influence factors and some empirical findings are obtained. We find that some respondents are willing to take individual actions to address climate change, and they pay more attention to climate change or approve that climate change does harm to residents and society; meanwhile, they tend to have confidence in the government to deal with climate change or believe that fiscal and taxation policies are the effective policy measures. However, there are also other respondents unwilling to take actions and argue that climate change proves the natural consequences. Thus, in order to motivate the public to take actions, the paper suggests that the government should widespreadly disseminate relevant knowledge about climate change to the public and guide the work to address climate change and adopt proper fiscal and taxation policies.  相似文献   

18.
Risk, including flood risk, can be defined as ??the combination of the probability of an event and its consequences??. Assessing and managing the risk from flooding should explicitly include the estimation of impacts to people. Extensive research is currently ongoing looking at both quantitative and qualitative approaches for assessing flood impacts on people. Although there is some literature available on such approaches, examples of methodological and routinely applications of these methodologies as part of flood risk assessments are rare. This paper focuses on quantitative approaches for estimating impacts of flooding to people, notably on methods for assessing fatality numbers associated with flooding. Three methods for assessing losses of life are discussed in detail. The methods discussed here constitute the forefront of research in Canada, UK and The Netherlands. These methods provide an assessment of the physical consequences of flooding on people and can be used to introduce the impacts to people as quantitative metric for the assessment of flood risk. In this paper, the three methodologies are discussed and applied in a UK case study reproducing the 1953 East Coast flood event. This study aims to provide a comprehensive comparison on both the reliability and the applicability of the methods. We analyse possible added values on using of these methods in systematic analyses, aiming to provide guidelines for applying these methods for flood fatality risk assessment.  相似文献   

19.
Spatial and temporal changes in flooding and the affecting factors in China   总被引：5，自引：3，他引：2  
Spatial and temporal changes in flood events in China are becoming increasingly important due to the rapid climate warming that is occurring. This study was conducted to consider changes in flood events and the factors affecting such changes. To accomplish this, China was divided into natural and social-economic flood regions: north China, northwest China, northeast China, southwest China, central China, east China, south China, and Taiwan, Hong Kong and Macau. Spatial and temporal changes in flood patterns were rebuilt during 1980?C2009, and Fast Fourier Transform Filtering was then employed to stimulate the changes in floods during this period. The factors affecting flooding were then analyzed quantitatively. The results showed that, based on the time series for China as a whole, flooding was more serious during 1990?C1999 than 1980?C1989 and 2000?C2009. However, in different regions, the trends in flooding differed greatly. Based on spatial changes, the areas hardest hit by floods were northeast China in the 1980s, northeast China, central China and east China in the 1990s, and central China after 2000. In China, the main flood-affecting factors were meteorological, ecological, population, water conservation facilities, and policy factors. However, the main affecting factors differed by region. Overall, the complex spatial and temporal features of flood variations and various affecting factors demand proper national and regional governmental action in the face of the changing flood patterns in China. The results of the present study provide valuable information to flood policymakers and flood disaster researchers.  相似文献   

20.
Flooding is a serious hazard across Europe, with over 200 major floods documented in the last two decades. Over this period, flood management has evolved, with a greater responsibility now placed on at-risk communities to understand their risk and take protective action to develop flood resilience. Consequently, communicating flood risk has become an increasingly central part of developing flood resilience. However, research suggests that current risk communications have not resulted in the intended increase in awareness, or behavioural change. This paper explores how current risk communications are used by those at risk, what information users desire and how best this should be presented. We explore these questions through a multi-method participatory experiment, working together with a competency group of local participants in the town of Corbridge, Northumberland, the UK. Our research demonstrates that current risk communications fail to meet user needs for information in the period before a flood event, leaving users unsure of what will happen, or how best to respond. We show that participants want information on when and how a flooding may occur (flood dynamics), so that they can understand their risk and feel in control of their decisions on how to respond. We also present four prototypes which translate these information needs into new approaches to communicating flood risk. Developed by the research participants, these proposals meet their information needs, increase their flood literacy and develop their response capacity. The findings of the research have implications for how we design and develop future flood communications, but also for how we envisage the role of flood communications in developing resilience at a community level.  相似文献   

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