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1.
Bivariate and multivariate statistical analyses were used to predict the spatial distribution of landslides in the Cuyahoga River watershed, northeastern Ohio, U.S.A. The relationship between landslides and various instability factors contributing to their occurrence was evaluated using a Geographic Information System (GIS) based investigation. A landslide inventory map was prepared using landslide locations identified from aerial photographs, field checks, and existing literature. Instability factors such as slope angle, soil type, soil erodibility, soil liquidity index, landcover pattern, precipitation, and proximity to stream, responsible for the occurrence of landslides, were imported as raster data layers in ArcGIS, and ranked using a numerical scale corresponding to the physical conditions of the region. In order to investigate the role of each instability factor in controlling the spatial distribution of landslides, both bivariate and multivariate models were used to analyze the digital dataset. The logistic regression approach was used in the multivariate model analysis. Both models helped produce landslide susceptibility maps and the suitability of each model was evaluated by the area under the curve method, and by comparing the maps with the known landslide locations. The multivariate logistic regression model was found to be the better model in predicting landslide susceptibility of this area. The logistic regression model produced a landslide susceptibility map at a scale of 1:24,000 that classified susceptibility into four categories: low, moderate, high, and very high. The results also indicated that slope angle, proximity to stream, soil erodibility, and soil type were statistically significant in controlling the slope movement.  相似文献   

2.
This study applied, tested and compared a probability model, a frequency ratio and statistical model, a logistic regression to Damre Romel area, Cambodia, using a geographic information system. For landslide susceptibility mapping, landslide locations were identified in the study area from interpretation of aerial photographs and field surveys, and a spatial database was constructed from topographic maps, geology and land cover. The factors that influence landslide occurrence, such as slope, aspect, curvature and distance from drainage were calculated from the topographic database. Lithology and distance from lineament were extracted and calculated from the geology database. Land cover was classified from Landsat TM satellite imagery. The relationship between the factors and the landslides was calculated using frequency ratio and logistic regression models. The relationships, frequency ratio and logistic regression coefficient were overlaid to make landslide susceptibility map. Then the landslide susceptibility map was compared with known landslide locations and tested. As the result, the frequency ratio model (86.97%) and the logistic regression (86.37%) had high and similar prediction accuracy. The landslide susceptibility map can be used to reduce hazards associated with landslides and to land cover planning.  相似文献   

3.
In volcanic terrains, dormant stratovolcanoes are very common and can trigger landslides and debris flows continually along stream systems, thereby affecting human settlements and economic activities. It is important to assess their potential impact and damage through the use of landslide inventory maps and landslide models. In Mexico, numerous geographic information systems (GIS)-based applications have been used to represent and assess slope stability. However, there is no practical and standardized landslide mapping methodology under a GIS. This work provides an overview of the ongoing research project from the Institute of Geography at the National Autonomous University of Mexico that seeks to conduct a multi-temporal landslide inventory and produce a landslide susceptibility map by using GIS. The Río El Estado watershed on the southwestern flank of Pico de Orizaba volcano, the highest mountain in Mexico, is selected as a study area. The geologic and geomorphologic factors in combination with high seasonal precipitation, high degree of weathering, and steep slopes predispose the study area to landslides. The method encompasses two main levels of analysis to assess landslide susceptibility. First, the project aims to derive a landslide inventory map from a representative sample of landslides using aerial orthophotographs and field work. Next, the landslide susceptibility is modelled by using multiple logistic regression implemented in a GIS platform. The technique and its implementation of each level in a GISs-based technology is presented and discussed.  相似文献   

4.
The aim of this study is to apply and compare a probability model, frequency ratio and statistical model, and a logistic regression to Sajaroud area, Northern Iran using geographic information system. Landslide locations of the study area were detected from interpretation of aerial photographs and field surveys. Landslide-related factors such as elevation, slope gradient, slope aspect, slope curvature, rainfall, distance to fault, distance to drainage, distance to road, land use, and geology were calculated from the topographic and geology map and LANDSAT ETM satellite imagery. The spatial relationships between the landslide location and each landslide-related factor were analyzed and then landslide susceptibility maps were produced using the frequency ratio and forward stepwise logistic regression methods. Finally, the maps were tested and compared using known landslide locations, and success rates were calculated. Predicted accuracy values for frequency ratio (79.48%) and logistic regression models showed that the map obtained from frequency ratio model is more accurate than the logistic regression (77.4%) model. The models used in this study have shown a great deal of importance for watershed management and land use planning.  相似文献   

5.
The 2015 Mw7.8 Gorkha earthquake triggered thousands of landslides of various types scattered over a large area. In the current study, we utilized pre- and post-earthquake high-resolution satellite imagery to compile two landslide inventories before and after earthquake and prepared three landslide susceptibility maps within 404 km2 area using frequency ratio (FR) model. From the study, we could map about 519 landslides including 178 pre-earthquake slides and 341 coseismic slides were identified. This study investigated the relationship between landslide occurrence and landslide causative factors, i.e., slope, aspect, altitude, plan curvature, lithology, land use, distance from streams, distance from road, distance from faults, and peak ground acceleration. The analysis showed that the majority of landslides both pre-earthquake and coseismic occurred at slope >30°, preferably in S, SE, and SW directions and within altitude ranging from 1000 to 1500 m and 1500 to 3500 m. Scatter plots between number of landslides per km?2 (LN) and percentage of landslide area (LA) and causative factors indicate that slope is the most influencing factor followed by lithology and PGA for the landslide formation. Higher landslide susceptibility before earthquake is observed along the road and rivers, whereas landslides after earthquake are triggered at steeper slopes and at higher altitudes. Combined susceptibility map indicates the effect of topography, geology, and land cover in the triggering of landslides in the entire basin. The resultant landslide susceptibility maps are verified through AUC showing success rates of 78, 81, and 77%, respectively. These susceptibility maps are helpful for engineers and planners for future development work in the landslide prone area.  相似文献   

6.
The purpose of this study is to assess the susceptibility of landslides in parts of Western Ghats, Kerala, India, using a geographical information system (GIS). Landslide inventory of the area was made by detailed field surveys and the analysis of the topographical maps. The landslide triggering factors are considered to be slope angle, slope aspect, slope curvature, slope length, distance from drainage, distance from lineaments, lithology, land use and geomorphology. ArcGIS version 8.3 was used to manipulate and analyse all the collected data. Probabilistic-likelihood ratio was used to create a landslide susceptibility map for the study area. The result was validated using the Area under Curve (AUC) method and temporal data of landslide occurrences. The validation results showed satisfactory agreement between the susceptibility map and the existing data on landslide locations. As the result, the success rate of the model was (84.46%) and the prediction rate of the model was (82.38%) shows high prediction accuracy. In the reclassified final landslide susceptibility zone map, 5.68% of the total area is classified as critical in nature. The landslide susceptibility map thus produced can be used to reduce hazards associated with landslides and to land cover planning.  相似文献   

7.
Slope instability research and susceptibility mapping is a fundamental component of hazard management and an important basis for provision of measures aimed at decreasing the risk of living with landslides. On this basis, this paper presents the result of a comprehensive study on slope stability analyses and landslide susceptibility mapping carried out in part of Sado Island of Japan. Various types of landslides occurred in the island throughout history. Little is known about the triggering factors and severity of old landslides, but for many of the recent slope failures, the slope characteristics and stratigraphy are such that ground surfaces retain water perennially and landslides occur when additional moisture is induced during rainfall and snowmelt. A range of methods are available in literature for preparation of landslide susceptibility maps. In this study we used two methods namely, the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) and logistic regression, to produce and later compare two susceptibility maps. AHP is a semi-qualitative method, which involves a matrix-based pair-wise comparison of the contribution of different factors for landsliding. Logistic regression on the other hand promotes a multivariate statistical analysis with an objective to find the best-fitting model that describes the relationship between the presence or absence of landslides (dependent variable) and a set of causal factors (independent parameters). Elevation, lithology and slope gradient were casual factors in this study. The determinations of factor weights by AHP and logistic regression were preceded by the calculation of class weights (landslide densities) based on bivariate statistical analyses (BSA). The differences between the AHP derived susceptibility map and the logistic regression counterpart are relatively minor when broad-based classifications are considered. However, with an increase in the number of susceptibility classes, the logistic regression map gave more details but the one derived by AHP failed to do so. The reason is that the majority of pixels in the AHP map have high values, and an increase in the number of classes gives little change in the spatial distribution of susceptibility zones in the middle. To verify the practicality of the two susceptibility maps, both of them were compared with a landslide activity map containing 18 active landslide zones. The outcome was that the active landslide zones do not completely fit into the very high susceptibility class of both maps for various reasons. But 70% of these landslide zones fall into the high and very high susceptibility zones of the AHP map while this is 63% in the case of logistic regression. This indicates that despite the skewed distribution of susceptibility indices, the AHP map was better to capture the reality on the ground than the logistic regression equivalent.  相似文献   

8.
Generally, pixels are the basic unit for assessment of landslide susceptibility. However, even if the results facilitate the comparison, a pixel-based analysis does not clearly illustrate the distribution relationships. To eliminate this deficiency, the concept of the Landslide Response Unit (LRU) is proposed in this study, for which adjacent pixels that have similar properties are combined as a basic unit for susceptibility assessment. The Subao River basin, seriously impacted by the Wenchuan Earthquake, was selected as the study area, and three factors including slope gradient, slope aspect, and slope shape, which have a significant impact on landslides, were chosen to divide the basin into 25,984 LRUs. Then topographic, geologic, and distance factors were applied for the landslide susceptibility evaluation. The logistic regression method was used to establish the susceptibility assessing model by analyzing 2,000 susceptible LRUs and 2,000 un-susceptible LRUs. The model accuracy was defined in terms of the ROC curve value and the κ value, 0.531 and 0.84, respectively. The susceptibility of landslides was divided into low, moderate, high, and very high in Subao River basin, and 73% of historical landslides and all four new landslides are in the highly susceptible zone and very highly susceptible zones. Finally, the LRUs with houses, farmlands, and roads prone to sliding and burial hazard were assessed separately. On the basis of considering the potential movement directions of the LRUs, the result found that 1,001 and 835 LRUs probably would be destroyed by slope sliding and landslide burial, respectively.  相似文献   

9.
For predictive landslide susceptibility mapping, this study applied and verified probability model, the frequency ratio and statistical model, logistic regression at Pechabun, Thailand, using a geographic information system (GIS) and remote sensing. Landslide locations were identified in the study area from interpretation of aerial photographs and field surveys, and maps of the topography, geology and land cover were constructed to spatial database. The factors that influence landslide occurrence, such as slope gradient, slope aspect and curvature of topography and distance from drainage were calculated from the topographic database. Lithology and distance from fault were extracted and calculated from the geology database. Land cover was classified from Landsat TM satellite image. The frequency ratio and logistic regression coefficient were overlaid for landslide susceptibility mapping as each factor’s ratings. Then the landslide susceptibility map was verified and compared using the existing landslide location. As the verification results, the frequency ratio model showed 76.39% and logistic regression model showed 70.42% in prediction accuracy. The method can be used to reduce hazards associated with landslides and to plan land cover.  相似文献   

10.
Landslides cause heavy damage to property and infrastructure, in addition to being responsible for the loss of human lives in many parts of the Turkey. The paper presents GIS-based spatial data analysis for landslide susceptibility mapping in the regions of the Sultan Mountains, West of Akşehir, and central part of Turkey. Landslides occur frequently in the area and seriously affect local living conditions. Therefore, spatial analysis of landslide susceptibility in the Sultan Mountains is important. The relationships between landslide distributions with the 19 landslide affecting parameters were analysed using a Bayesian model. In the study area, 90 landslides were observed. The landslides were randomly subdivided into 80 training landslides and 10 test landslides. A landslide susceptibility map was produced by using the training landslides. The test landslides were used in the accuracy control of the produced landslide susceptibility map. Approximately 9% of the study area was classified as high susceptibility zone. Medium, low and very low susceptibility zones covered 8, 23 and 60% of the study area, respectively. Most of the locations of the observed landslides actually fall into moderate (17.78%) and high (77.78. %) susceptibility zones of the produced landslide susceptibility map. This validates the applicability of proposed methods, approaches and the classification scheme. The high susceptibility zone is along both sides of the Akşehir Fault and at the north-eastern slope of the Sultan Mountains. It was determined that the surface area of the Harlak and Deresenek formations, which have attained lithological characteristics of clayey limestone with a broken and separated base, and where area landslides occur, possesses an elevation of 1,100–1,600 m, a slope gradient of 25°–35° and a slope aspect of 22.5°–157.5° facing slopes.  相似文献   

11.
Landslides the most common geo-hazard in hilly terrain are short lived phenomena but cause extraordinary landscape changes and destruction of life and property. The frequency and intensity of landslides occurrences along NH-21 during the rainy season not only disrupts traffic movement but also misbalance the agro-economic and developmental activities of the region frittering away thousand crores of rupees from the exchequer. An assessment of landslide susceptibility is, therefore, a prerequisite for sustainable development of the region. The present study deals with the preparation of macro-zonation maps of landslide susceptibility in an area of about 100 sq km on 1:50,000 scale across Garamaura-Swarghat section of National Highway-21. The map has been prepared by superimposing the terrain evaluation maps in a particular zone such as lithological map, structural map, slope morphometry map, relative relief map, land use and land cover map and hydrological condition map using landslide susceptibility evaluation factor rating scheme and calculating the total estimated susceptibility as per the guidelines of IS: 14496 (Part-2) 1998). Numerical weightages are assigned to the prime causative factors of slope instability such as lithology, structure, slope morphometery, relative relief, land use and groundwater conditions as per the scheme approved by Bureau of Indian Standard for the purpose of landslide susceptibility zonation. The area depicts zones of different instability. The identified susceptibility zones compared with landslide intensity in the area show some congruence with the weightages of the inputs. The incongruence in intensity and frequency of landslide occurrences and the inferred susceptibility zones of BIS scheme allow other geotechnical considerations and causative factors to be incorporated for the landslide susceptibility zonation.  相似文献   

12.
The objective of this study is to map landslide susceptibility in Zigui segment of the Yangtze Three Gorges area that is known as one of the most landslide-prone areas in China by using data from light detection and ranging (LiDAR) and digital mapping camera (DMC). The likelihood ratio (LR) and logistic regression model (LRM) were used in this study. The work is divided into three phases. The first phase consists of data processing and analysis. In this phase, LiDAR and DMC data and geological maps were processed, and the landslide-controlling factors were derived such as landslide density, digital elevation model (DEM), slope angle, aspect, lithology, land use and distance from drainage. Among these, the landslide inventories, land use and drainage were constructed with both LiDAR and DMC data; DEM, slope angle and aspect were constructed with LiDAR data; lithology was taken from the 1:250,000 scale geological maps. The second phase is the logistic regression analysis. In this phase, the LR was applied to find the correlation between the landslide locations and the landslide-controlling factors, whereas the LRM was used to predict the occurrence of landslides based on six factors. To calculate the coefficients of LRM, 13,290,553 pixels was used, 29.5 % of the total pixels. The logical regression coefficients of landslide-controlling factors were obtained by logical regression analysis with SPSS 17.0 software. The accuracy of the LRM was 88.8 % on the whole. The third phase is landslide susceptibility mapping and verification. The mapping result was verified using the landslide location data, and 64.4 % landslide pixels distributed in “extremely high” zone and “high” zone; in addition, verification was performed using a success rate curve. The verification result show clearly that landslide susceptibility zones were in close agreement with actual landslide areas in the field. It is also shown that the factors that were applied in this study are appropriate; lithology, elevation and distance from drainage are primary factors for the landslide susceptibility mapping in the area, while slope angle, aspect and land use are secondary.  相似文献   

13.
The crucial and difficult task in landslide susceptibility analysis is estimating the probability of occurrence of future landslides in a study area under a specific set of geomorphic and topographic conditions. This task is addressed with a data-driven probabilistic model using likelihood ratio or frequency ratio and is applied to assess the occurrence of landslides in the Tevankarai Ar sub-watershed, Kodaikkanal, South India. The landslides in the study area are triggered by heavy rainfall. Landslide-related factors—relief, slope, aspect, plan curvature, profile curvature, land use, soil, and topographic wetness index proximity to roads and proximity to lineaments—are considered for the study. A geospatial database of the related landslide factors is constructed using Arcmap in GIS environment. Landslide inventory of the area is produced by detailed field investigation and analysis of the topographical maps. The results are validated using temporal data of known landslide locations. The area under the curve shows that the accuracy of the model is 85.83%. In the reclassified final landslide susceptibility map, 14.48% of the area is critical in nature, falling under the very high hazard zone, and 67.86% of the total validation dataset landslides fall in this zone. This landslide susceptibility map is a vital tool for town planning, land use, and land cover planning and to reduce risks caused by landslides.  相似文献   

14.
Landslide susceptibility maps are vital for disaster management and for planning development activities in the mountainous country like Nepal. In the present study, landslide susceptibility assessment of Mugling?CNarayanghat road and its surrounding area is made using bivariate (certainty factor and index of entropy) and multivariate (logistic regression) models. At first, a landslide inventory map was prepared using earlier reports and aerial photographs as well as by carrying out field survey. As a result, 321 landslides were mapped and out of which 241 (75?%) were randomly selected for building landslide susceptibility models, while the remaining 80 (25?%) were used for validating the models. The effectiveness of landslide susceptibility assessment using GIS and statistics is based on appropriate selection of the factors which play a dominant role in slope stability. In this case study, the following landslide conditioning factors were evaluated: slope gradient; slope aspect; altitude; plan curvature; lithology; land use; distance from faults, rivers and roads; topographic wetness index; stream power index; and sediment transport index. These factors were prepared from topographic map, drainage map, road map, and the geological map. Finally, the validation of landslide susceptibility map was carried out using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. The ROC plot estimation results showed that the susceptibility map using index of entropy model with AUC value of 0.9016 has highest prediction accuracy of 90.16?%. Similarly, the susceptibility maps produced using logistic regression model and certainty factor model showed 86.29 and 83.57?% of prediction accuracy, respectively. Furthermore, the ROC plot showed that the success rate of all the three models performed more than 80?% accuracy (i.e. 89.15?% for IOE model, 89.10?% for LR model and 87.21?% for CF model). Hence, it is concluded that all the models employed in this study showed reasonably good accuracy in predicting the landslide susceptibility of Mugling?CNarayanghat road section. These landslide susceptibility maps can be used for preliminary land use planning and hazard mitigation purpose.  相似文献   

15.
In many regions, the absence of a landslide inventory hampers the production of susceptibility or hazard maps. Therefore, a method combining a procedure for sampling of landslide-affected and landslide-free grid cells from a limited landslide inventory and logistic regression modelling was tested for susceptibility mapping of slide- and flow-type landslides on a European scale. Landslide inventories were available for Norway, Campania (Italy), and the Barcelonnette Basin (France), and from each inventory, a random subsample was extracted. In addition, a landslide dataset was produced from the analysis of Google Earth images in combination with the extraction of landslide locations reported in scientific publications. Attention was paid to have a representative distribution of landslides over Europe. In total, the landslide-affected sample contained 1,340 landslides. Then a procedure to select landslide-free grid cells was designed taking account of the incompleteness of the landslide inventory and the high proportion of flat areas in Europe. Using stepwise logistic regression, a model including slope gradient, standard deviation of slope gradient, lithology, soil, and land cover type was calibrated. The classified susceptibility map produced from the model was then validated by visual comparison with national landslide inventory or susceptibility maps available from literature. A quantitative validation was only possible for Norway, Spain, and two regions in Italy. The first results are promising and suggest that, with regard to preparedness for and response to landslide disasters, the method can be used for urgently required landslide susceptibility mapping in regions where currently only sparse landslide inventory data are available.  相似文献   

16.
The purpose of this study is to produce a landslide susceptibility map for the lower Mae Chaem watershed, northern Thailand using a Geographic Information System (GIS) and remotely sensed images. For this purpose, past landslide locations were identified from satellite images and aerial photographs accompanied by the field surveys to create a landslide inventory map. Ten landslide-inducing factors were used in the susceptibility analysis: elevation, slope angle, slope aspect, lithology, distance from lineament, distance from drainage, precipitation, soil texture, land use/land cover (LULC), and NDVI. The first eight factors were prepared from their associated database while LULC and NDVI maps were generated from Landsat-5 TM images. Landslide susceptibility was analyzed and mapped using the frequency ratio (FR) model that determines the level of correlation between locations of past landslides and the chosen factors and describes it in terms of frequency ratio index. Finally, the output map was validated using the area under the curve (AUC) method where the success rate of 80.06% and the prediction rate of 84.82% were achieved. The obtained map can be used to reduce landslide hazard and assist with proper planning of LULC in the future.  相似文献   

17.
Identification of landslides and production of landslide susceptibility maps are crucial steps that can help planners, local administrations, and decision makers in disaster planning. Accuracy of the landslide susceptibility maps is important for reducing the losses of life and property. Models used for landslide susceptibility mapping require a combination of various factors describing features of the terrain and meteorological conditions. Many algorithms have been developed and applied in the literature to increase the accuracy of landslide susceptibility maps. In recent years, geographic information system-based multi-criteria decision analyses (MCDA) and support vector regression (SVR) have been successfully applied in the production of landslide susceptibility maps. In this study, the MCDA and SVR methods were employed to assess the shallow landslide susceptibility of Trabzon province (NE Turkey) using lithology, slope, land cover, aspect, topographic wetness index, drainage density, slope length, elevation, and distance to road as input data. Performances of the methods were compared with that of widely used logistic regression model using ROC and success rate curves. Results showed that the MCDA and SVR outperformed the conventional logistic regression method in the mapping of shallow landslides. Therefore, multi-criteria decision method and support vector regression were employed to determine potential landslide zones in the study area.  相似文献   

18.
The purpose of this study is to assess the susceptibility of landslides around Yomra and Arsin towns near Trabzon, in northeast of Turkey, using a geographical information system (GIS). Landslide inventory of the area was made by detailed field surveys and the analyses of the topographical map. The landslide triggering factors are considered to be slope angle, slope aspect, distance from drainage, distance from roads and the weathered lithological units, which were called as “geotechnical units” in the study. Idrisi and ArcGIS packages manipulated all the collected data. Logistic regression (LR) and weighted linear combination (WLC) statistical methods were used to create a landslide susceptibility map for the study area. The results were assessed within the scope of two different points: (a) effectiveness of the methods used and (b) effectiveness of the environmental casual parameters influencing the landslides. The results showed that the WLC model is more suitable than the LR model. Regarding the casual parameters, geotechnical units and slopes were found to be the most important variables for estimating the landslide susceptibility in the study area.  相似文献   

19.
A landslide susceptibility assessment for İzmir city (Western Turkey), which is the third biggest city of Turkey, was performed by a logistic regression method. A database of landslide characteristics was prepared using detailed field surveys. The major landslides in the study area are generally observed in the field, dominated by weathered volcanics, and 39.63% of the total landslide area is in this unit. The parameters of lithology, slope gradient, slope aspect, distance to drainage, distance to roads and distance to fault lines were used as variables in the logistic regression analysis. The effect of each parameter on landslide occurrence was assessed from the corresponding coefficients that appear in the logistic regression function. On the basis of the obtained coefficients, lithology plays the most important role in determining landslide occurrence and distribution. Slope gradient has a more significant effect than the other geomorphological parameters, such as slope aspect and distance to drainage. Using a predicted map of probability, the study area was classified into five categories of landslide susceptibility: very low, low, moderate, high and very high. Whereas 49.65% of the total study area has very low susceptibility, very high susceptibility zones make up 11.69% of the area.  相似文献   

20.
GIS-based landslide susceptibility maps for the Kankai watershed in east Nepal are developed using the frequency ratio method and the multiple linear regression technique. The maps are derived from comparing observed landslides with possible causative factors: slope angle, slope aspect, slope curvature, relative relief, distance from drainage, land use, geology, distance from faults and mean annual rainfall. The consistency of the maps is evaluated using landslide density analysis, success rate analysis and spatially agreed area approach. The first two analyses produce almost identical quantitative results, whereas the last approach is able to reveal spatial differences between the maps and also to improve predictions in the agreed high landslide-susceptible area.  相似文献   

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