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珠江流域大尺度陆面水文耦合模式的构建及应用 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
以珠江流域为研究对象,通过更新陆面水文模式所需的下垫面参数数据库,建立适合于珠江流域的大尺度陆面水文耦合模式系统,并利用该模式开展了1963~2006年流域水文水循环过程的数值模拟,通过与实测流量比较,系统考察了陆面水文耦合模型对珠江流域水循环各分量的模拟性能。分析结果表明,该陆面水文耦合模式对珠江流域年平均各水循环要素具有良好的模拟能力;模式对珠江流域干流主要控制水文站的月平均流量也有较高的模拟精度,模式模拟的水量平衡系数均接近1,相关系数均高于0.84,IOA相似度系数均高于0.9;相对而言,模式对流量峰值的模拟能力还有待提高。 相似文献
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为研究海河流域径流对土地利用变化的响应,以阜平流域、匡门口流域和界河铺流域为研究区,利用1970—2011年的水文气象资料,分析了不同土地利用的时空转移特征,然后结合SWAT(Soil and Water Assessment Tool)模型,设置4种土地利用情景,评价了土地利用变化对径流的影响。结果表明:模型能够较好地模拟全年及汛期月流量过程;多年径流量呈下降趋势,20世纪80年代到90年代中期呈波动性变化;不同的土地利用类型在时空上的转化呈现可逆性,主要是林地增加,草地减少,耕地略有增加;林地的增加和草地的减少会降低汛期径流量以及最大月径流量;汛期径流系数随着林地面积的增加而减小。合理地规划土地利用格局,对控制流域水文事件具有重要意义。 相似文献
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《地球科学进展》2015,(10)
随着人口增长和经济社会快速发展,人类活动已成为陆地水循环变化的重要驱动因子,人类用水活动对陆地水循环的影响越来越受到人们的关注。回顾近年来人类用水活动对大尺度陆地水循环影响方面的研究进展;阐述灌溉、生活和工业用水、水库调节以及地下水利用等典型人类用水活动影响大尺度陆地水循环的过程与机制,并在此基础上探讨了陆面水文模型中人类用水活动参数化方案及其存在的问题。目前,陆面水文模型对人类用水活动的考虑依然不足,使得应用模型模拟陆地水循环和评估变化环境下水资源安全面临挑战。展望未来,深入认识人类用水活动与水系统的影响与反馈,开发考虑人—水系统协同演化的水系统综合评估模型,预估水安全形势的演变趋势,将成为陆地水循环和水资源研究的长期重要任务。 相似文献
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甘青地区马家窑文化遗址的地貌环境分析及其土地利用研究 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
马家窑文化是甘青地区新石器时期的主流文化,其时空演化和生业模式转变过程的研究取得了较大进展,但其不同发展阶段的地貌环境和水文条件的变化却仍不清晰。本文借助GIS方法和遗址域的概念,采用定量手段分析了马家窑文化不同时期遗址分布的地貌背景和汇水累积量的变化,并以此推论这些不同的地貌环境所反映的土地利用方式及其与生业模式之间的关联。分析结果表明,马家窑文化在不同时期的遗址域内有不同的平地等级和汇水累积量分布,这些指标所反映的土地开发、占用模式与当时的生业模式有很大关系。这项工作为理解不同气候背景下史前人类对生存空间和生业模式的选择机制提供了新的视角。 相似文献
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黄河中游水资源匮乏,分析水文要素变化趋势对实现水资源的可持续开发利用具有重要意义。根据流域地貌特征及水文站控制情况,将黄河中游划分为3个区间,分别为:河-龙区间、龙-三区间和三-花区间,采用Mann-Kendall秩次相关检验法与线性回归方法,分析检验了各区间年径流量的历史变化趋势。采用设定情景与水文模拟相结合的途径,评估了不同区间河川径流量对气候变化的响应。根据1950-2005年资料分析,结果表明:黄河中游干流控制站实测径流量与区间径流量均具有显著的减少趋势。若气温升高1℃,年径流量将减少3.7%~6.6%;河川径流对降水变化更为敏感,若降水减少10%,河川径流量将减少17%~22%;近些年黄河中游气温升高和降水减少是河川径流减少的重要原因之一。 相似文献
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Tauseef Ahmad Ansari Yashwant B. Katpatal A. D. Vasudeo 《Arabian Journal of Geosciences》2016,9(18):702
The changing land use due to rapid urbanization has profound impact on the runoff in urban watersheds. The spatial analysis in urban watersheds is felt necessary for management of surface and subsurface water regimes. Significant increase in impervious zones was observed in Nagpur urban watersheds between 2000 and 2012 having impacts on runoff, and even flash floods were observed. This study presents spatial and temporal impacts of change in urban built-up area on curve number (CN) and runoff during the years 2000 and 2012. The study also analyzes effect of slope on CN values and shows that CN increases with slope. High-resolution satellite images were used to map impervious surface areas (ISAs) which show an increase of 0.9 to 34 % during 2000–2012. Spearman’s and Pearson’s coefficients have been generated to establish relationship between runoff, impervious surface areas, vegetation index, slope, and runoff coefficient. It has been hypothetically assumed that if 100, 50, and 25 % rooftop rainwater harvesting is considered, the estimated runoff reduces in 2012 as compared to the year 2000. The study suggests that increase in impervious areas within urban watersheds can be utilized for groundwater augmentation adopting rooftop rainwater-harvesting techniques and to prevent flash floods. 相似文献
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气候变化和人类活动被认为是城市洪水演变的主要驱动因素,不同区域气候变化和城市化对洪水演变的影响不尽相同,科学识别城市洪水演变的关键驱动要素、量化气候变化与城市化对城市流域洪水演变的影响是城市洪水管理的重要依据。本文以高度城市化的北京市温榆河流域为例,以季节降雨量、气温、流域前期湿度、不透水面积比及流域内地下水埋深作为潜在驱动要素,对温榆河夏季不同概率的洪水建立GAMLSS模型,分析探讨城市流域洪水演变的主要驱动机制。研究结果表明:温榆河流域夏季不同概率的洪水在研究期均呈现出非一致性特性;城市不透水面积的扩张和降水是温榆河流域夏季洪水变化的主要驱动要素,不同等级洪水的变化具有不同的驱动机制,高于概率70%的小洪水的变化主要受到流域下垫面变化的影响,而小于概率45%的低频洪水的变化主要受降水的影响。 相似文献
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Urban impervious surfaces are considered as key indicator of urbanization intensity and environmental quality. Due to their significant impact on surface runoff, flood frequency, and water quality, impervious surfaces have been identified as an important indicator for examining the hydrological impact of urbanization. The amount and distribution of impervious surfaces have been estimated using remote sensing and geographic information system (GIS) techniques. Little research, however, has been conducted to predict future impervious surface distributions. To address this problem, we developed an integrated residential/commercial growth and impervious surface distribution model to predict urban impervious surface distribution. Taking Milwaukee River Basin, Wisconsin as a case study, we simulated future residential and commercial developments using a CA model. Further, we developed a linear regression model to predict impervious surface distributions in residential and commercial land uses. Analysis of results suggests that the proposed model performs significantly better than the traditional approaches. 相似文献
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基于随机森林模型的城市不透水面提取研究 ——以呼和浩特市为例 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
城市不透水面信息对于城市生态环境动态演化过程研究具有重要意义。以Landsat 8遥感影像为数据源,以呼和浩特市为实证区域,进行了随机森林模型应用于城市不透水面的提取研究,并与目前应用广泛的支持向量机模型进行了对比分析。研究表明:在不同的抽样比例训练样本条件下,随机森林模型对于城市不透水面的提取精度均优于支持向量机的提取精度;对于随机森林模型和支持向量机模型,70%的训练样本比例均为最佳训练样本抽样比例。在该抽样比例下,随机森林模型提取城市不透水面的总体分类精度为93.29%,Kappa系数为0.9051,支持向量机模型的总体分类精度为91.26%,Kappa系数为0.8757;随机森林模型对于城市裸土的识别度较高,能更好地将城市裸土和不透水面进行区分,而支持向量机模型对于城市裸土、不透水面和绿地的区分能力均弱于随机森林模型。综合而言,随机森林模型对城市不透水面的提取精度优于支持向量机模型,随机森林模型可以有效应用于城市不透水面提取领域,进一步丰富了城市不透水面提取方法体系构成。 相似文献
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台湾有将近80%的人口居住于城市地区,使得供水系统负荷增加、脆弱度提升,而城市化也导致径流量增加使得洪灾风险提高。拟整合供水、灾备用水和雨洪消减,并对雨洪滞蓄系统进行雨洪利用策略及容量分析研究。以台湾新北市秀峰国小为基地,规划雨水储留供水系统、渗透侧沟系统、生态池系统串联的雨洪滞蓄系统,建立多目标替代方案进行分析评估。采用绿色建筑设计方法结合合理化公式进行降雨径流演算。结果表明,在各替代方案下,系统需设置容量55~185m3,径流量削减率为26.5%~100%、洪峰削减率为15%~100%、供水率为5%~7.5%、灾备用水天数则从3d提升至19d。所提出的规划方法可以较小的设置容量达到雨洪滞蓄多目标利用效果。 相似文献
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Raymond A. Duraiswami Vrishali Dumale Usha Shetty 《Journal of the Geological Society of India》2009,73(5):621-638
Runoff has increased many fold in urban areas due to increase in paved areas, training of streams and construction of storm
water drains. The recharge is therefore continuously decreasing; resulting in depleting groundwater reserves beneath large
cities, especially those situated on water divides. In order to reduce surface runoff and replenish groundwater many advocate
artificial recharge through rainwater harvesting. Conventionally, detailed hydrogeological survey is needed by expert hydrogeologists
to suggest suitable sites for rooftop rainwater harvesting and storage in the subsurface aquifers. Pune, a rapidly growing
city, is under severe stress due to shortage of water in some areas. An effort has been made in this study to identify areas
suitable for rooftop rainwater harvesting by integrating traditional hydrogeological survey data with the help of Remote Sensing
and Geographic Information System. This endeavour has led to develop a program called SLUGGER-DQL which helps to identify
potential sites for rooftop rainwater harvesting and artificial recharge. The program is open ended and several other factors
controlling potential recharge can be easily added on. Based on the results of the present study, potential sites for rainwater
harvesting and artificial recharge have been identified in the Pune University-Shivajinagar-Kothrud area. The present paper
demonstrates the utility of traditional hydrogeological surveys combined with modern techniques in solving problems related
to urban hydrogeology and town planning. 相似文献
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An impervious surface cover is continuously spreading over the Wu-Tu upstream watershed due to the concentrated population
and raised economical demands, while that area also frequently suffers from heavy storms or typhoons during the summer season.
The increased flood volume due to this extended imperviousness causes a greater potential hazard than that of the past. In
order to evaluate the urbanized impacts on the watershed, a set of methods were used to estimate the changes of the watershed
storage. This research chose 51 observed events from three raingauges on the Wu-Tu upstream watershed, Taiwan, to study the
volume characteristic of abstracted rainwater. In the study, the block Kriging method was used to estimate the area rainfall
and the hourly excess was derived through the non-linear programing (NLP). A total of 40 samples were calibrated through the
hydrological model and the Soil Conservation Service (SCS) model using the optimum seeking method in order to search out and
establish the best parameters that illustrate the hydrological and geomorphic conditions at that time. Eleven cases were used
to examine the established relationship of the parameters and the impervious coverings. A design storm approach was used to
view the changes of the volume for various scale storms/typhoons because of the different degrees of urbanization. Then, a
diagram was designed to show the relationships that exist among the runoff coefficient, return period, and impervious surface.
The satisfactory results show that storage capability of rainwater for various scale storms on the Wu-Tu watershed would be
respectively reduced about 42–156 cms in different decrements up to now. 相似文献
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为了分析有效不透水下垫面在城市雨洪模拟中的水文响应机理, 以常州市双桥浜径流小区为研究区域, 构建考虑有效不透水下垫面的城市雨洪模型。利用实测资料先确定屋顶中有效不透水面积的比例, 再率定模型其余参数。采用不同的方法表征不透水性, 设置不同的模拟方案, 分析有效不透水面积及总不透水面积的水文响应。结果表明: 与正确使用有效不透水面积的模拟结果相比, 用总不透水面积表征模型不透水性且直接移用有效不透水面积模型参数, 会高估洪峰流量及洪量; 使用总不透水面积表征不透水性, 进而率定模型, 低重现期时洪峰流量偏大, 高重现期时洪峰流量偏低, 并且会低估洪量。 相似文献