首页 | 本学科首页   官方微博 | 高级检索  
相似文献
 共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 750 毫秒
1.
Some Bayesian methods of dealing with inaccurate or vague data are introduced in the framework of seismic hazard assessment. Inaccurate data affected by heterogeneous errors are modeled by a probability distribution instead of the usual value plus a random error representation; these data are generically called imprecise. The earthquake size and the number of events in a certain time are modeled as imprecise data. Imprecise data allow us to introduce into the estimation procedures the uncertainty inherent in the inaccuracy and heterogeneity of the measuring systems from which the data were obtained. The problem of estimating the parameter of a Poisson process is shown to be feasible by the use of Bayesian techniques and imprecise data. This background technique can be applied to a general problem of seismic hazard estimation. Initially, data in a regional earthquake catalog are assumed imprecise both in size and location (i.e errors in the epicenter or spreading over a given source). By means of scattered attenuation laws, the regional catalog can be translated into a so-called site catalog of imprecise events. The site catalog is then used to estimate return periods or occurrence probabilities, taking into account all sources of uncertainty. Special attention is paid to priors in the Bayesian estimation. They can be used to introduce additional information as well as scattered frequency-size laws for local events. A simple example is presented to illustrate the capabilities of this methodology.  相似文献   

2.
It has been shown that large-scale weather patterns in both the tropical South Pacific (El Niño-Southern Oscillation, or ENSO, events) and the North Pacific (Pacific-North American, or PNA, patterns) have strong teleconnection effects on the air, ice, and ocean environments of the Bering Sea. This signal apparently comes via the atmosphere and not the ocean. The connection between variability of the Bering Sea and the ENSO and PNA appears to be the winter position of the Aleutian Low. Interannual variability in air temperatures, ice cover, and surface winds in the Bering Sea generally are in phase with each other, whereas sea-surface temperatures (SST) tend to lag these variables by 1–3 months. These Bering Sea time-series are significantly correlated with the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) time-series (an indicator of ENSO events) when the Bering sea data are lagged behind the SOI for up to 18 months. The correlations suggest that warming in the Bering Sea follows negative anomalies in the SOI (i.e., El Niño events). Cooling in the Bering Sea tends to follow positive anomalies (i.e., precursors of El Niños) in the SOI. Maximal correlations for the PNA also lag the SOI by a mouth or two.Analyses of variance indicate that the SOI can explain 30–40% of the variability in the Bering Sea. Stepwise multiple regressions can explain up to 54% of the variation in air temperatures, up to 39% of the variation in sea ice cover, and up to 46% of the variation in SST in the Bering Sea. PNA and SOI were significant variables only in the equation for air temperatures, indicating a close relationship between them and the atmosphere in the Bering Sea and suggesting that energy is transmitted to the water and ice via the atmosphere. The three variables airtemps, ice, and SST were significant each time they were used as independent variables, indicating a rapid and strong feedback relationship among them.Three ENSO events have occurred since the mid-1970s, but none have been typical. There have been either two positive SOI anomalies preceding an El Niño or there have been none preceding an El Niño. When there has been a positive anomaly, ice cover has been above normal, but neither a positive anomaly nor above-normal ice has occurred in the past two ENSO events. An ice retreat has occurred any time there has been an ENSO event, except in the case of the great El Niño of 1982–1983; the anomalous position of the Aleutian Low at that time explains the lack of response of the ice. Finally, one ice retreat occurred that was unrelated to an ENSO event, but was related to a PNA event.  相似文献   

3.
The relative impacts of the ENSO and Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) events on Indian summer (June–September) monsoon rainfall at sub-regional scales have been examined in this study. GISST datasets from 1958 to 1998, along with Willmott and Matsuura gridded rainfall data, all India summer monsoon rainfall data, and homogeneous and sub-regional Indian rainfall datasets were used. The spatial distribution of partial correlations between the IOD and summer rainfall over India indicates a significant impact on rainfall along the monsoon trough regions, parts of the southwest coastal regions of India, and also over Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Iran. ENSO events have a wider impact, although opposite in nature over the monsoon trough region to that of IOD events. The ENSO (IOD) index is negatively (positively) correlated (significant at the 95% confidence level from a two-tailed Student t-test) with summer monsoon rainfall over seven (four) of the eight homogeneous rainfall zones of India. During summer, ENSO events also cause drought over northern Sri Lanka, whereas the IOD events cause surplus rainfall in its south. On monthly scales, the ENSO and IOD events have significant impacts on many parts of India. In general, the magnitude of ENSO-related correlations is greater than those related to the IOD. The monthly-stratified IOD variability during each of the months from July to September has a significant impact on Indian summer monsoon rainfall variability over different parts of India, confirming that strong IOD events indeed affect the Indian summer monsoon.
Karumuri AshokEmail:
  相似文献   

4.
This study deals with the oxygen isotope composition of hematite-rich ore bodies in the Iron Quadrangle, Brazil. The area studied can be divided into two different regions: a western (W) zone of greenschist facies assemblages and an eastern (E) zone of amphibolite facies with transitions into granulite facies assemblages.The 18O values of 136 quartz-iron oxide pairs have been determined and temperatures of formation have been calculated. The 18O values of quartz vary between +6 and 20 except one value near +23, whereas the iron oxides fall between –4 and +10, with nearly 80% of the iron oxide values between –0.5 and 4.0. The regional distribution of the 18O values is as follows: in the W-region 85% of the quartz are >12, whereas in the E-region only 46% fall in this range, In contrast to quartz the iron oxides do not show any regional differences.The variation of oxygen isotope fractionations between quartz and iron oxides is obviously related to the complex deformation history of the iron ores. Samples with a primary schistosity (S1) only represent peak metamorphic conditions. In the E-region the (S1) high temperatures >700° C seem to correspond to orogenic events in the Archaen basement 2,700 m.y. ago. In the W-region S1-temperatures between 460° and 560° C seem to represent peak metamorphic conditions of the Proterozoic Minas metamorphism 2,000 m.y. ago. Iron ores which have been overprinted by later deformation events are selectively reset to lower isotopic temperatures. The more closely spaced the schistosity planes the larger the extent of a temperature lowering.The genetic processes associated with these hematite-rich ore bodies appear to be sedimentary-metamorphic rather than metasomatic processes. Furthermore, there is no evidence for secondary leaching by weathering solutions.  相似文献   

5.
Upper Oligocene sediments of the Eastern Paratethys are distinguished in the Maikop Group owing to several characteristic features. They form a thick (1000–1200 m) sequence with specific composition and structure in different structural–facies zones of the basin. The development of fish facies is the most remarkable feature. It includes unique sediments composed of fish bone detritus (FBD) and iron sulfides with high contents of REE, U, Sc, Re, Ni, Co, Mo, and other elements. These elements form commercial uranium–base metal deposits so far unknown in other formations of the Earth. The structure of thick rock sequences in the deepest part of the Eastern Paratethys is also characterized by specific features. Deep-sea clayey fish-facies sediments intercalate with beds of fine-grained sandy and silty material. Their influx into the central part of the basin was responsible for the clinoform structure of the rock sequence revealed by seismostratigraphic studies. This communication presents new data on the distribution of bone detritus deposits, composition and structure of sediments, and summary characteristics of Upper Oligocene sediments that are essential for the further analysis of facies–paleogeographic sedimentation conditions in the central Eastern Paratethys.  相似文献   

6.
Rb/Sr data for seven basaltic provinces (K-Ar ages 50-0 Ma) in southeastern Australia imply isotopic heterogeneities in the mantle sources. The total range of 87Sr/ 86Sr is 0.7031–0.7054. Effects of crustal contamination are negligible, since the rocks analyzed represent primary or primitive magma compositions. The inferred scales of heterogeneity range from <1 km for small intraprovince variations, to in the order of 100 km for the larger differences between provinces.Correlation of regional high 87Sr/86Sr in basaltic rocks with the presence of amphibole-bearing upper mantle xenoliths suggests that the degree of metasomatic activity in the underlying mantle is a major control on the Rb/Sr and 87Sr/86Sr values of mantle source volumes and partial melts derived from these. Xenolith data also indicate that both pervasive metasomatism and the presence of crystallized melts or cumulates as veins and dykes in mantle wall rock are possible mechanisms for metasomatic additions.Mantle isochrons can be constructed both within some provinces and between provinces. However, episodic metasomatism in the mantle source regions, with correlated enrichment in Rb/Sr and 87Sr/86Sr, can produce artificial isochrons which may have no relevance to mantle differentiation events.  相似文献   

7.
Knowledge production, organisation and agglomeration economies   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
Jan G. Lambooy 《GeoJournal》1997,41(4):293-300
The increasing attention for the economic value of the scientific work produced in universities has resulted in a multitude of concepts concerning the production and transfer of knowledge and possible linkages with the business community. Many universities are engaged in activities aimed at improving the economic development of their respective regions. They often participate in Science Parks, Techno Parcs, and Technopoles. They attempt to stimulate spin-offs and to promote the further use of the knowledge produced in their departments. The regional economic impact varies with the kind of knowledge involved. Only certain parts can be put to commercial use, more in particular the technological products of the knowledge output. Property rights of knowledge have to be defended, which makes it less easy to imitate or use the knowledge in other regions. The current trend to sell knowledge makes it necessary to build a strong organisational structure, especially in the first stages of the production of knowledge that is commercially applicable. Such an organisation requires huge funds and the establishment of strong teams of experts, to prevent valuable knowledge from premature dissipation. These teams and departments have better prospects in larger urban areas with a strongly differentiated economy, with agglomeration economies and lower transaction costs. In these regions it will be easier to have spin-offs (new firms) and to retain a linkage with entrepreneurs-alumni from the universities. An efficient organisation is an important precondition for successful universities and regions.  相似文献   

8.
There are four concepts involved with the methodology used in this analysis: classical second derivative surfaces, boolean representation of the surfaces, determination of weighted model characteristics, and multiple variable regional appraisal.This paper was presented at the International Geological Correlation Program (IGCP) Project 98 entitled Standards for Computer Applications in Resource Studies held at Loen, Norway, September 27–October 1, 1976.  相似文献   

9.
The aim of this work is to quantitatively set up a simple hypothesis for occurrence of earthquakes conditioned by prior events, on the basis of a previously existing model and the use of recent instrumental observations. A simple procedure is presented in order to determine the conditional probability of pairs of events (foreshock-mainshock, mainshock-aftershock) with short time and space separation. The first event of a pair should not be an aftershock, i.e., it must not be related to a stronger previous event. The Italian earthquake catalog of the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica (ING) (1975–1995, M 3.4), the earthquake catalog of the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) (1983–1994, M 3.0) and that of the National Observatory of Athens (NOA) (1982–1994, M 3.8) were analyzed. The number of observed pairs depends on several parameters: the size of the space-time quiescence volume defining nonaftershocks, the inter event time, the minimum magnitude of the two events, and the spatial dimension of the alarm volume after the first event. The Akaike information criterion has been adopted to assess the optimum set of space-time parameters used in the definition of the pairs, assuming that the occurrence rate of subsequent events may be modeled by two Poisson processes with different rates: the higher rate refers to the space-time volume defined by the alarms and the lower one simulates earthquakes that occur in the nonalarm space-time volume. On the basis of the tests carried out on the seismic catalog of Italy, the occurrence rate of M 3.8 earthquakes followed by a M 3.8 mainshock within 10 km and 10 days (validity) is 0.459. We have observed, for all three catalogs, that the occurrence rate density for the second event of a couple (mainshock or aftershock) of magnitude M2 subsequent to a nonaftershock of magnitude M1 in the time range T can be modeled by the following relationship: (T, M2) = 10a + b(M1 - M2) with b varying from 0.74 (Japan) to 1.09 (Greece). The decrease of the occurrence rate in time for a mainshock after a foreshock or for large aftershocks after a mainshock, for all three databases, obeys the Omori's law with p changing from 0.94 (Italy) to 2.0 (Greece).  相似文献   

10.
Local and regional studies of climatic patterns confirm that temperatures are rising in the Arabian Gulf area. Further warming of the region, which is already unbearably hot is an environmental catastrophe on a new scale. It has potential to violently disrupt virtually every natural ecosystem and many of the structures and institutions that people depend on. It seems that the Arabian Gulf region is also a part of global warming or the green house effect. This paper analyzes temperatures, rainfall, humidity, sunshine, evaporation and wind speeds. The effect of the Gulf War or Desert Storm has also been included. The study confirms that temperature is rising at a rate of 1.4°C in 100 years. In the beginning a brief discussion of geography, culture, water resources and modern development in Bahrain is given to introduce the country.  相似文献   

11.
Based on Anderson's faulting theory, for a given set of fault slip data including the sense of slip on faults and fault planes, this paper provides two possible methods to reconstruct the principal stress axes using vectorial and modal analysis procedure. The vectorial analysis consists of computing eigenvectors of the orientation matrices defined by axes P, B, and T (P, B, and T being geometrical axes parallel to axes 1, 2, 3 associated with a single striated fault) which are determined geometrically knowing the slip vector S, the normal to fault plane N, and the dihedral angle 2. A parameter R, related to the maximum eigenvalue of the orientation matrix and the size of data sample, is shown to be a good test value for the homogeneity of the data. A process of refinement of this parameter enables bad data (representing faults generated under different tectonic events) to be ignored in the final computation of the principal stress axes; results are thus significantly improved and the vectorial analysis procedure enables the orientation of stress to be numerically determined. On defining probability density regions around each P, B, and T axes that incorporate the variation of fault geometry, the modal analysis is carried out in two density functions established by a convolution process to locate modes which represent optimal locations of the principal stress axes in spherical space. Splitting of heterogeneous data samples into homogeneous subsets is achieved by a dynamical cluster procedure which enables the principal stress axes associated with each subset to be determined separately.  相似文献   

12.
The transformation from blueschist to greenschist facies forms a major part of the Alpine regional geodynamic evolution of the Cyclades. The transition in metabasic rocks on Sifnos involves the retrogression of eclogites, blueschists and actinolite-bearing rocks from high-pressure conditions which have been estimated at 460±30° C and 15±3 kb. Petrographically observed parageneses are interpreted by a sequence of hydration and carbonation reactions involving the breakdown of omphacite and glaucophane-bearing assemblages to albite+chlorite±actinolite±calcite assemblages. The retrograde processes are calculated to occur at pressures of 10 to 8 kb during the isothermal uplift of the Sifnos units. Oxygen isotope analyses of different rock types show that interlayered lithologies have experienced a large degree of isotopic equilibration during both metamorphic phases. However, chemically equivalent rocks show systematic increases in 18O from lowest values (8 to 11 in metabasics) in the unaltered blueschists in the upper stratigraphic levels to higher values (>15 in metabasics) associated with greenschists in the deepest stratigraphic levels. Relict eclogites enclosed within greenschists have the lower 18O values typical of unaltered blueschist facies rocks. These isotopic gradients and the 13C and 18O compositions of carbonates demonstrate an infiltration mechanism involving the upward movement of 18O-enriched fluids whose compositions were buffered by exchange with marble units. Calculated minimum fluid/rock ratios for the blueschist-to-greenschist transition decrease from 0.4 in the deepest studied level (Central Sifnos) and 0.2 in the intermediate level (Kamares Bay samples) to an assumed value of zero in unaltered blueschists. These ratios may be lower if recycling of fluids occurred between schists and marbles. Infiltration of fluids became inhibited as the transformation advanced as a consequence of sealing effect of the hydration and carbonation reactions. Although infiltration most probably was a pre-requisite for the regional occurrence of the blueschist-to-greenschist transformation in the Cyclades, the evidence on Sifnos does not suggest the introduction of large quantities of fluid.  相似文献   

13.
Israel's quest for security on its northern border with Lebanon has a history dating back to the foundation of the Palestine mandate. In the early period from the First World War to the end of the 1960s the quest was dominated with attaining economic and environmental security by seeking to acquire rights to the waters of South Lebanon. Recent decades in contrast have witnessed the rise in importance of border security and strategic security requirements in the face of military threats to northern Israel. Israel's interventionist policy in South Lebanon has been formalised to include a permanent presence on Lebanese territory in the form of the security zone. It is argued that despite the positive events that have occurred in the region in the early 1990s, it remains unlikely that Israel will easily relinquish its security shield in South Lebanon thus ultimately undermining the possibility of moving away from elusive to permanent security.  相似文献   

14.
A radon anomaly in a nuclear track detector placed on a fault was detected prior to the destructive (Ms = 8.1) Mexican earthquake of 19 September 1985. The fault is a structural feature of the geothermal field Los Azufres, 260 km NE of the epicentral area. Since no other phenomenon can be found as a possible cause for the radon anomaly, it is proposed that preseismic regional stress perturbations may produce changes in the fluid transport patterns at the fault, suggesting that radon measurements in similar conditions could provide a good precursor in high seismic risk areas.  相似文献   

15.
Many natural phenomena exhibit size distributions that are power laws or power law type distributions. Power laws are specific in the sense that they can exhibit extremely long or heavy tails. The largest event in a sample from such distribution usually dominates the underlying physical or generating process (floods, earthquakes, diamond sizes and values, incomes, insurance). Often, the practitioner is faced with the difficult problem of predicting values far beyond the highest sample value and designing his system either to profit from them, or to protect against extreme quantiles. In this paper, we present a novel approach to estimating such heavy tails. The estimation of tail characteristics such as the extreme value index, extreme quantiles, and percentiles (rare events) is shown to depend primarily on the number of extreme data that are used to model the tail. Because only the most extreme data are useful for studying tails, thresholds must be selected above which the data are modeled as power laws. The mean square error (MSE) is used to select such thresholds. A semiparametric bootstrap method is developed to study estimation bias and variance and to derive confidence limits. A simulation study is performed to assess the accuracy of these confidence limits. The overall methodology is applied to the Harvard Central Moment Tensor catalog of global earthquakes.  相似文献   

16.
James R. Coull 《GeoJournal》1996,39(2):185-194
Shetland, as an isolated group of islands on the north-west margin of Europe, has always depended in its economy on marine-based resources, and current trends suggest that this will continue for the future. Up to the oil era Shetland depended mainly on the fisheries around it, although for centuries externally-based fishermen have profited more from these fisheries than have the Shetland people. As well as the development of oil from the 1970s there has been the other major economic innovation of fish farming. The oil industry is on massive scale and has greatly changed the economy of the islands and brought notable social benefits; but the direct employment it provides is considerably exceeded by the fish-related industries, which include employment in fish processing and packing plants as well as in fish catching and fish farming. With the oil industry in Shetland now on a settled downward trajectory, the islands are inevitably now having to look more to fish-related employment for their future. In the internal structure of Shetland, fish farming has a notable effect in distributing employment throughout the islands. Activity in fishing and fish processing is more selectively located: fishing is mainly concentrated in certain islands in the archipelago, particularly Whalsay and Burra; and fish processing is mainly in central locations, especially Lerwick and Scalloway. A prominent problem for fish processors is getting reliable supplies in face of higher fish prices at markets on the Scottish mainland. The processors also now face the challenge of putting more value added on their products in an outlying location. For the future there is a major issue in getting more effective measures for conservation of fish stocks in the Shetland area; there is also the related issue of whether Shetland fishermen should get preference in the allocation of fish quotas in this area. For fish farming there is the basic issue of maintaining a pollution-free environment: this was emphasised by the oil spill from the Braer oil tanker, and there is also concern about potential polluution from the prospective development of oil fields in the more difficult deep-water environment to the west of the islands.  相似文献   

17.
The eastern oyster (Crassostrea virginica) is affected by two protozoan parasites, Perkinsus marinus which causes Dermo disease and Haplosporidium nelsoni which causes MSX (Multinucleated Sphere Unknown) disease. Both diseases are largely controlled by water temperature and salinity and thus are potentially sensitive to climate variations resulting from the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which influences climate along the Gulf of Mexico coast, and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), which influences climate along the Atlantic coast of the United States. In this study, a 10-year time series of temperature and salinity and P. marinus infection intensity for a site in Louisiana on the Gulf of Mexico coast and a 52-year time series of air temperature and freshwater inflow and oyster mortality from Delaware Bay on the Atlantic coast of the United States were analyzed to determine patterns in disease and disease-induced mortality in C. virginica populations that resulted from ENSO and NAO climate variations. Wavelet analysis was used to decompose the environmental, disease infection intensity and oyster mortality time series into a time–frequency space to determine the dominant modes of variability and the time variability of the modes. For the Louisiana site, salinity and Dermo disease infection intensity are correlated at a periodicity of 4 years, which corresponds to ENSO. The influence of ENSO on Dermo disease along the Gulf of Mexico is through its effect on salinity, with high salinity, which occurs during the La Niña phase of ENSO at this location, favoring parasite proliferation. For the Delaware Bay site, the primary correlation was between temperature and oyster mortality, with a periodicity of 8 years, which corresponds to the NAO. Warmer temperatures, which occur during the positive phase of the NAO, favor the parasites causing increased oyster mortality. Thus, disease prevalence and intensity in C. virginica populations along the Gulf of Mexico coast is primarily regulated by salinity, whereas temperature regulates the disease process along the United States east coast. These results show that the response of an organism to climate variability in a region is not indicative of the response that will occur over the entire range of a particular species. This has important implications for management of marine resources, especially those that are commercially harvested.  相似文献   

18.
A laminated sequence (core BAP96-CP 24°38.12′N, 110°33.24′W; 390 m depth) from the Alfonso Basin in Bay of La Paz, southern Gulf of California, contains a record of paleoceanographic and paleoclimatic changes of the past 7900 yr. Radiolarian assemblages and magnetic susceptibility are used as proxies of oceanographic and climatic variability. The records provide a regional scenario of the middle and late Holocene, suggesting two major climatic regimes and several millennial-scale events. Conditions relatively warmer and drier than today occurred from 7700 to 2500 cal yr BP, promoting the intensification of evaporation processes and the prevalence of the Gulf of California water in the Basin. These conditions correlate with strong droughts in the middle Holocene of North America and with minimal incursion of tropical waters into the Gulf of California. Proxies indicate a warm scenario and the dominance of the Equatorial Surface Water in the Alfonso Basin from 2400 to 700 cal yr BP, suggesting the intensification of ENSO cycles. A climatic signal between 1038 and 963 cal yr BP may be correlated with global signal of the “Medieval Warm Period.” Several cooling events are recognized at 5730, 3360, 2700, 1280 and 820 cal yr BP and are associated with intensification of northwest winds leading to upwellings and enhanced productivity in the Basin.  相似文献   

19.
Because of the high degree of automation in the coal mining industry in the Ruhr area, Germany, about 1 metric ton of crushed rock/colliery spoil is brought to the surface for every metric ton of coal. Most of the colliery spoil disposed of must be dumped. These colliery spoil dumps are anthropogenic geological sediment bodies, which have a characteristic facies resulting from geological, technical, and economical factors connected with the formation of the dumps. The relation between the facies of the dumps and these factors, for example, is examplified with the pyrite content within the colliery spoil. Pyrite content within the dumps is dependent both on the conditions during sedimentation and (early) diagenesis and the techniques used for mining and processing. Thus, this geologic-technical facies of the dumps controls the weathering processes on and in dumps. These humaninduced processes are mainly responsible for the environmental impact on soil and groundwater. Oxidation of pyrite as well as alteration of pyrite under anoxic conditions yields dissolution of carbonates, accompanied by gypsum formation, by acid attack and strong acidification takes place.  相似文献   

20.
ENSO is considered as a strong atmospheric teleconnection that has pronounced global and regional circulation effects. It modifies global monsoon system, especially, Asian and African monsoons. Previous studies suggest that both the frequency and magnitude of ENSO events have increased over the last few decades resulting in a need to study climatic impacts of ENSO magnitude both at global and regional scales. Hence, to better understand the impact of ENSO amplitude over the tropical and extratropical regions focussing on the Asian and African domains, ENSO sensitivity experiments are conducted using ICTPAGCM (‘SPEEDY’). It is anticipated that the tropical Pacific SST forcing will be enough to produce ENSO-induced teleconnection patterns; therefore, the model is forced using NINO3.4 regressed SST anomalies over the tropical Pacific only. SPEEDY reproduces the impact of ENSO over the Pacific, North and South America and African regions very well. However, it underestimates ENSO teleconnection patterns and associated changes over South Asia, particularly in the Indian region, which suggests that the tropical Pacific SST forcing is not sufficient to represent ENSO-induced teleconnection patterns over South Asia. Therefore, SST forcing over the tropical Indian Ocean together with air–sea coupling is also required for better representation of ENSO-induced changes in these regions. Moreover, results obtained by this pacemaker experiment show that ENSO impacts are relatively stronger over the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) compared to extratropics and high latitude regions. The positive phase of ENSO causes weakening in rainfall activity over African tropical rain belt, parts of South and Southeast Asia, whereas, the La Niña phase produces more rain over these regions during the summer season. Model results further reveal that ENSO magnitude has a stronger impact over African Sahel and South Asia, especially over the Indian region because of its significant impact over the tropical Atlantic and the Indian Ocean through Walker circulation. ENSO-induced negative (positive) NAO-like response and associated changes over Southern Europe and North Africa get significantly strong following increased intensity of El Niño (La Niña) in the northern (southern) hemisphere in the boreal winter (summer) season. We further find that ENSO magnitude significantly impacts Hadley and Walker circulations. The positive phase of ENSO (El Niño) overall strengthens Hadley cell and a reverse is true for the La Niña phase. ENSO-induced strengthening and weakening of Hadley cell induces significant impact over South Asian and African ITCZ convective regions through modification of ITCZ/monsoon circulation system.  相似文献   

设为首页 | 免责声明 | 关于勤云 | 加入收藏

Copyright©北京勤云科技发展有限公司  京ICP备09084417号