共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 231 毫秒
1.
枣庄地区岩溶地面塌陷成因与防治 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
枣庄地区第四系覆盖层厚５～１０ｍ,其结构上细下粗,下伏的奥陶系灰岩岩溶裂隙发育,岩溶地面塌陷主要集中在十里泉和丁庄—东王庄这两个最大的水源地。大量抽取地下水使地下水位波动的幅度增大,潜蚀作用增强。当地下水位降至基岩面以下时,上覆土层的浮托力消失,产生失托加荷作用,同时在岩溶洞穴中出现的真空又对土层产生了吸蚀作用,上述各种作用均能破坏土层结构,最终导致地面塌陷。因此,在地面塌陷的防治上可采用调整地下水开采量,把水位波动带控制在基岩面以下,以避免地下水各种作用的破坏;在兴建工程建筑时,避开岩溶裂隙发育地段;对塌陷区及时进行相应的工程治理等。 相似文献
2.
岩溶地面塌陷的形成条件 总被引：12，自引：14，他引：12
岩溶地面塌陷的形成,需具备有岩溶洞隙、一定厚度盖层、地下水活动三个基本条件。岩溶洞隙的存在是塌陷产生的基础,为塌陷物质提供容纳的场所和运移的空间。松散破碎的盖层是塌陷体的主要组成部份,已知塌陷大多数由土层组成。地下水活动是塌陷产生的主要动力,地下水位升降、流速流量的变化,将对土层、洞隙空间产生多种力学效应和作用,引起岩土体破坏,导致塌陷产生。深入研究岩溶塌陷的形成条件,将有助于搞清它的形成机理,为塌陷的预测、防治提供科学依据。 相似文献
3.
《地下水》2021,(1)
岩溶地面塌陷是南方地区主要地质灾害之一,对岩溶塌陷区进行有效的监测预警十分必要。以广东肇庆地区某自然村为例,通过对研究区地质背景、已发岩溶塌陷情况、形成机理及演化过程进行分析,查明该研究区在地下水下降时,上覆土体在岩溶水与孔隙水所产生的压强差或真空负压作用下会发生岩溶塌陷,岩溶塌陷属吸压-陷落模式;采用间接监测法在该岩溶地面塌陷区设置监测孔2个,分别对2014.12.28-2015.12.08期间的岩溶地下水和底部土层之上的砂层孔隙水进行监测,并提取水位变化速率、水力梯度的数据范围,对相关数据进行对比分析,结果显示:研究区地下水水位变幅及波动速率未有明显异常值,底部土层水力梯度远小于临界水力梯度,岩溶塌陷水动力条件属于正常值范围,该时段内无新发岩溶塌陷灾害。研究可见,对地下水位进行长期监测,并积累长系列数据,可为日后监测预警的阈值提供依据。 相似文献
4.
岩溶区土洞发育机制的分析 总被引：9，自引：1，他引：9
岩溶区地下水或地表水的活动 ,将对土层产生潜蚀作用及崩解作用 ,进而形成土洞。真空吸蚀作用 ,有利于土洞的发育扩大。地下水位的变化 ,将使土洞周围土体的应力状态发生改变 ,并有可能导致土洞周围土体产生塑性破坏 ,使土洞进一步扩大甚至塌陷. 相似文献
5.
过量开采岩溶水会导致岩溶地面塌陷,枣庄则是全国岩溶地面塌陷比较严重的地区之一,塌陷已对当地的居民生活和经济建设造成了巨大的危害。根据大量的勘察资料和地下水动态监测资料,研究了枣庄地区奥陶系碳酸盐岩岩溶发育特征,探讨了岩溶地面塌陷的形成机理,岩溶裂隙和上覆土层的性质和厚度是岩溶地面塌陷的先决条件,地下水位大幅度升降引起的物理地质作用是塌陷的主要动力来源,震动和水位突变是重要的诱发因素。 相似文献
6.
湖南省涟源市岩溶地面塌陷特征分析 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
涟源市属中低山-丘陵地形,区内碳酸盐岩分布面积广,岩溶发育。由于受采煤活动影响,诱发地面岩溶塌陷48处,造成重大经济损失。岩溶塌陷多分布于岩溶采煤区,发生原因主要是矿坑突水、抽排地下水,使地下水位大幅变动,上覆岩土体失去浮托而产生塌陷。 相似文献
7.
岩溶地面塌陷预测模型初探 总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4
岩溶的发育程度、上覆岩土体性质是岩溶地面塌陷形成的基本条件;地下水位下降,地表水或降水入渗,震动荷载等动力扰动,是形成岩溶地面塌陷产生的诱发动力条件。本文以山东省泰安市岩溶地面塌陷区为例,讨论了岩溶地面塌陷的产生机理,并从受力情况对其进行了分析探讨,从而提出了岩溶地面塌陷的预测模型。本文还根据研究区的8个塌陷实例对模型进行了检验。结果表明,该模型的计算结果与实际情况基本吻合。 相似文献
8.
本文对岩溶地区岩溶塌陷易发性进行研究,利用地质环境要素通过专家-层次分析法对岩溶塌陷易发性进行评价,并通过MapGIS软件实现可视化。以桂林市规划中心城区为例,选取了岩溶发育程度、土层厚度、土层结构、第四系底部土层岩性、第四系底部土层液性指数、地下水年变化幅度、岩溶水承压性、塌陷密度、人类工程活动9个影响岩溶塌陷易发性的地质环境因素,建立了岩溶塌陷易发性评价指标体系和评价方法,并对研究区进行了评价,其成果可为桂林市规划中心城区的岩溶塌陷防治对策提供指导和借鉴。 相似文献
9.
文章总结泰安市城区—旧县水源地内岩溶塌陷的发生发展历程，综合前人研究成果及最新的野外调查统计结果，对影响研究区岩溶塌陷的分布及影响因素进行了剖析，探明了岩溶塌陷的发育条件及诱发因素。结果表明:(1)研究区内岩溶塌陷主要发生在岩溶发育较强、断裂带附近、土层厚度小于30 m的区域；发生塌陷区域的土层结构以二元结构为主，其次是多元结构；塌陷大多发生在汛期，尤其是在大型降雨之后；(2)强烈的地下水开采活动引发的岩溶水大幅度波动是塌陷发生的最主要诱发因素，且岩溶地下水位在基岩面附近波动时最易引发塌陷；外界对土体的扰动也对塌陷有一定的影响，泰安城区旧镇铁路交汇处的塌陷与列车行车震动有密不可分的联系。综合分析以往岩溶塌陷的研究方向和程度，建议今后的研究重点应为塌陷过程演化监测与模拟、塌陷预警预报方法探索及数据库建设。 相似文献
10.
岩溶矿床疏干区地下水位恢复对岩溶塌陷作用机制的研究——以湖南宁乡大成桥为例 总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0
截止2016年底，大成桥疏干区在地下水位恢复过程中共发生了17起岩溶塌陷，文章结合地下水动态监测、水文地质钻探成果以及现场调查资料等，研究地下水恢复特征及其对岩溶塌陷的作用机制，为研究区塌陷的预警防治提供科学依据。结果表明:研究区岩溶塌陷集中在河流两岸阶地和麻枣冲沟中；岩溶塌陷发生顺序为先补给区后径流区，与地下水恢复动态过程密切相关；区内地下水恢复过程可分为4个阶段，不同阶段岩溶塌陷机理可分为渗流潜蚀-气爆效应，负压吸蚀效应，软化增荷-挤压-吸蚀效应和软化-崩解效应等4种力学效应组合，不同力学效应作用下的致塌模式有所不同。其中地下水位在基岩面附近4~5 m范围波动更容易引发岩溶塌陷。目前补给区地下水位标高63.95~71.8 m，高于基岩面5~6 m；径流区为42.8~57.7 m，位于基岩面以下4~17 m，因此须密切观测研究区地下水位变化。 相似文献
11.
Between 1985 and 1991, two new mountain protected areas (MTNPA) covering more than 35,000 km2 and based on participatory management models — the Makalu-Barun National Park and Conservation Area, Nepal, and Qomolangma Nature Preserve, Tibet Autonomous Region — were successfully established through the collaborative efforts of Woodlands Mountain Institute and conservationists in China and Nepal. Characteristics common to both projects include the importance of establishing (1) effective rationales, (2) local support constituencies, (3) a senior advisory group, (4) a task force, (5) linkages between conservation and development, and (6) fund raising mechanisms. The lessons derived from the experiences of Woodlands Mountain Institute are of significant value to others in preserving MTNPA. Increased collaboration and communication between all interested in conservation, however, will remain a critical component for expanding mountain protected area coverage to throughout the world. 相似文献
12.
Most sulfide-rich magmatic Ni-Cu-(PGE) deposits form in dynamic magmatic systems by partial melting S-bearing wall rocks with variable degrees of assimilation of miscible silicate and volatile components, and generation of barren to weakly-mineralized immiscible Fe sulfide xenomelts into which Ni-Cu-Co-PGE partition from the magma. Some exceptionally-thick magmatic Cr deposits may form by partial melting oxide-bearing wall rocks with variable degrees of assimilation of the miscible silicate and volatile components, and generation of barren Fe ± Ti oxide xenocrysts into which Cr-Mg-V ± Ti partition from the magma. The products of these processes are variably preserved as skarns, residues, xenoliths, xenocrysts, xenomelts, and xenovolatiles, which play important to critical roles in ore genesis, transport, localization, and/or modification. Incorporation of barren xenoliths/autoliths may induce small amounts of sulfide/chromite to segregate, but incorporation of sulfide xenomelts or oxide xenocrysts with dynamic upgrading of metal tenors (PGE > Cu > Ni > Co and Cr > V > Ti, respectively) is required to make significant ore deposits. Silicate xenomelts are only rarely preserved, but will be variably depleted in chalcophile and ferrous metals. Less dense felsic xenoliths may aid upward sulfide transport by increasing the effective viscosity and decreasing the bulk density of the magma. Denser mafic or metamorphosed xenoliths may also increase the effective viscosity of the magma, but may aid downward sulfide transport by increasing the bulk density of the magma. Sulfide wets olivine, so olivine xenocrysts may act as filter beds to collect advected finely dispersed sulfide droplets, but other silicates and xenoliths may not be wetted by sulfides. Xenovolatiles may retard settling of – or in some cases float – dense sulfide droplets. Reactions of sulfide melts with felsic country rocks may generate Fe-rich skarns that may allow sulfide melts to fractionate to more extreme Cu-Ni-rich compositions. Xenoliths, xenocrysts, xenomelts, and xenovolatiles are more likely to be preserved in cooler basaltic magmas than in hotter komatiitic magmas, and are more likely to be preserved in less dynamic (less turbulent) systems/domain/phases than in more dynamic (more turbulent) systems/domains/phases. Massive to semi-massive Ni-Cu-PGE and Cr mineralization and xenoliths are often localized within footwall embayments, dilations/jogs in dikes, throats of magma conduits, and the horizontal segments of dike-chonolith and dike-sill complexes, which represent fluid dynamic traps for both ascending and descending sulfides/oxides. If skarns, residues, xenoliths, xenocrysts, xenomelts, and/or xenovolatiles are present, they provide important constraints on ore genesis and they are valuable exploration indicators, but they must be included in elemental and isotopic mass balance calculations. 相似文献
13.
I. Bejarano-Ramirez Jose M. Jurado R. Muñiz-Valencia Á. Alcázar Silvia G. Ceballos-Magaña A. Olivos-Ortiz O. Rangel 《International Journal of Environmental Science and Technology》2017,14(6):1333-1342
The contents of As, Cd, Cu, Cr, Mg, Mn, Ni, Pb and Zn have been determined in sediment and water samples from Valle de las Garzas estuary and Port Manzanillo (Colima, Mexico) using ICP-AES. The concentrations of these elements were used for a comparative study to determine the distribution of heavy metals and to evaluate which elements reflect natural or anthropogenic backgrounds. For this purpose, seven sampling points were selected: Four of them correspond to the lagoon, and three were situated in the port. Statistical analysis of the mineral content was assessed. Initially, data comparison was assessed by statistical tests for each variable. Principal component analysis was then applied considering the influence of all variables at the same time by obtaining the distribution of samples according to their scores in the principal component space. In this way, four studies were carried out: (1) study of sediments collected during the dry season; (2) study of sediments collected during the rainy season; (3) comparative study between sediments from rainy and dry season; and (4) study of water composition collected during rainy season. From the results of the performed analyses, it can be concluded that metals distribution pattern reflected natural and anthropogenic backgrounds (e.g., sediments from the lagoon, situated at the beginning of the rain channel, presented high contents of Zn and Cu, perhaps related to anthropogenic activities or the influence of igneous sediments). 相似文献
14.
《Geoforum》2017
This article advances critical geographies of youth through examining the spatiality implicit in the imagined futures of young women in rural India. Geographers and other scholars of youth have begun to pay more attention to the interplay between young people’s past, present, and imagined futures. Within this emerging body of scholarship the role of the family and peer group in influencing young people’s orientations toward the future remain underexamined. Drawing on eleven months of ethnographic fieldwork, my research focuses on a first generation of college-going young women from socioeconomically marginalized backgrounds in India’s westernmost state of Gujarat. I draw on the “possible selves” theoretical construct in order to deploy a flexible conceptual framework that links imagined post-educational trajectories with motivation to act in the present. In tracing the physical movement of these young women as they navigate and complete college, my analysis highlights the ways in which particular kinds of spaces and spatial arrangements facilitate and limit intra- and inter-generational contact, and the extent to which this affects young women’s conceptions of the future. I conclude by considering the wider implications of my research for ongoing debates surrounding youth transitions, relational geographies of age, and education in the Global South. 相似文献
15.
Hirokazu Fujimaki 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》1986,94(1):42-45
Concentration ratios of Hf, Zr, and REE between zircon, apatite, and liquid were determined for three igneous compositions: two andesites and a diorite. The concentration ratios of these elements between zircon and corresponding liquid can approximate the partition coefficient. Although the concentration ratios between apatite and andesite groundmass can be considered as partition coefficients, those for the apatite in the diorite may deviate from the partition coefficients. The HREE partition coefficients between zircon and liquid are very large (100 for Er to 500 for Lu), and the Hf partition coefficient is even larger. The REE partition coefficients between apatite and liquid are convex upward, and large (D=10–100), whereas the Hf and Zr partition coefficients are less than 1. The large differences between partition coefficients of Lu and Hf for zircon-liquid and for apatite-liquid are confirmed. These partition coefficients are useful for petrogenetic models involving zircon and apatite. 相似文献
16.
Pools,riffles, and channelization 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
Edward A. Keller 《Environmental Geology》1978,2(2):119-127
The addition of regularly spaced deeps (pools) and shallows (riffles) that provide a variety of flow conditions, areal sorting
of stream-bed material, cover for wildlife, and a positive aesthetic experience, may be desirable in many channel projects.
Such designs will reduce adverse environmental impacts of stream channel modifications.
Analysis of variance for pool-to-pool spacing data suggests that there is no significant difference with respect to channel
width between pools that form in natural streams and those in streams affected by a variety of human uses. Short of channelization,
which changes the channel width, pools and riffles, within limits, are not particularly sensitive to environmental stress.
Experiments in Gum Branch near Charlotte, North Carolina, support the hypothesis that channel form and process evolve in harmony
and that manipulation of cross-channel morphology can influence the development of desired channel processes. Planned manipulation
of its channel form induced Gum Branch to develop as desired. Morphologic stability consisting of incipient point bars, pools,
and riffles was maintained over a period of high magnitude flood events, only to be degraded later by a wave of sediment derived
from upstream construction and stream-bank failures. Thus, environmentally desirable channel morphology in urban streams cannot
remain stable if changes in the sediment load or storm-water runoff exceed the limits of the stream's ability to make internal
adjustments while maintaining morphologic stability. 相似文献
17.
《Chemical Geology》2007,236(1-2):13-26
We examined the coprecipitation behavior of Ti, Mo, Sn and Sb in Ca–Al–Mg fluorides under two different fluoride forming conditions: at < 70 °C in an ultrasonic bath (denoted as the ultrasonic method) and at 245 °C using a Teflon bomb (denoted as the bomb method). In the ultrasonic method, small amounts of Ti, Mo and Sn coprecipitation were observed with 100% Ca and 100% Mg fluorides. No coprecipitation of Ti, Mo, Sn and Sb in Ca–Al–Mg fluorides occurred when the sample was decomposed by the bomb method except for 100% Ca fluoride. Based on our coprecipitation observations, we have developed a simultaneous determination method for B, Ti, Zr, Nb, Mo, Sn, Sb, Hf and Ta by Q-pole type ICP-MS (ICP-QMS) and sector field type ICP-MS (ICP-SFMS). 9–50 mg of samples with Zr–Mo–Sn–Sb–Hf spikes were decomposed by HF using the bomb method and the ultrasonic method with B spike. The sample was then evaporated and re-dissolved into 0.5 mol l− 1 HF, followed by the removal of fluorides by centrifuging. B, Zr, Mo, Sn, Sb and Hf were measured by ID method. Nb and Ta were measured by the ID-internal standardization method, based on Nb/Mo and Ta/Mo ratios using ICP-QMS, for which pseudo-FI was developed and applied. When 100% recovery yields of Zr and Hf are expected, Nb/Zr and Ta/Hf ratios may also be used. Ti was determined by the ID-internal standardization method, based on the Ti/Nb ratio from ICP-SFMS. Only 0.053 ml sample solution was required for measurement of all 9 elements. Dilution factors of ≤ 340 were aspirated without matrix effects. To demonstrate the applicability of our method, 4 carbonaceous chondrites (Ivuna, Orgueil, Cold Bokkeveld and Allende) as well as GSJ and USGS silicate reference materials of basalts, andesites and peridotites were analyzed. Our analytical results are consistent with previous studies, and the mean reproducibility of each element is 1.0–4.6% for basalts and andesites, and 6.7–11% for peridotites except for TiO2. 相似文献
18.
19.
Preston Cloud 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》1977,66(1):678-696
Materials and energy are the interdependent feedstocks of economic systems, and thermodynamics is their moderator. It costs energy to transform the dispersed minerals of Earth's crust into ordered materials and structures. And it costs materials to collect and focus the energy to perform work — be it from solar, fossil fuel, nuclear, or other sources. The greater the dispersal of minerals sought, the more energy is required to collect them into ordered states.But available energy can be used once only. And the ordered materials of industrial economies become disordered with time. They may be partially reordered and recycled, but only at further costs in energy. Available energy everywhere degrades to bound states and order to disorder — for though entropy may be juggled it always increases. Yet industry is utterly dependent on low entropy states of matter and energy, while decreasing grades of ore require ever higher inputs of energy to convert them to metals, with ever increasing growth both of entropy and environmental hazard.Except as we may prize a thing for its intrinsic qualities — beauty, leisure, love, or gold — low-entropy is the only thing of real value. It is worth whatever the market will bear, and it becomes more valuable as entropy increases. It would be foolish of suppliers to sell it more cheaply or in larger amounts than their own enjoyment of life requires, whatever form it may take. For this reason, and because of physical constraints on the availability of all low-entropy states, the recent energy crises is only the first of a sequence of crises to be expected in energy and materials as long as current trends continue.The apportioning of low-entropy states in a modern industrial society is achieved more or less according to the theory of competitive markets. But the rational powers of this theory suffer as the world grows increasingly polarized into rich, over-industrialized nations with diminishing resource bases and poor, supplier nations with little industry. The theory also discounts posterity, the more so as population density and percapita rates of consumption continue to grow. A new social, economic, and ecologic norm that leads to population control, conservation, and an apportionment of low-entropy states across the generations is needed to assure to posterity the options that properly belong to it as an important but voiceless constituency of the collectivity we call mankind.
Dedicated with appreciation to Nicholas Georgescu-Roegen, distinguished economist, realist among cornucopians 相似文献
Zusammenfassung Rohstoffe und Energie sind die Grundlagen unseres ökonomischen Systems, das von den Gesetzen der Thermodynamik bestimmt wird. Es kostet Energie, um die auf der Erde verteilten Rohstoffe diesem System zuzuführen. Andererseits braucht man Rohstoffe, um die Energie nutzbar zu machen.Die verfügbare Energie kann nur einmal genutzt werden und das Material verbraucht sich. Verbrauchtes Material kann teilweise zur weiteren Nutzung zurückgeführt werden, das kostet wiederum Energie. Die verfügbare Energie nimmt überall ab, und einmal geschaffene Ordnung gerät wieder in Unordnung — das heißt, die Entropie des Systems nimmt ständig zu. Die Industrie ist jedoch abhängig von einem niedrigen Entropiezustand sowohl der Materie als auch der Energie.Je ärmer die Erze sind, um so höher wird die Energie sein, um sie in Metalle umzuwandeln, wobei die Entropie und die Belastung der Umwelt ständig zunimmt.Außer den Dingen, die wir wegen höherer ideeller Werte schätzen, ist eine niedrige Entropie der einzige realistische Wertmaßstab, und der wirkliche Wertzuwachs ist nur an einer höheren Entropie zu messen. Es ist unverantwortlich, Dinge, die eine höhere Entropie bedingen, billiger zu verkaufen oder in größerer Menge zu erzeugen, als unbedingt notwendig ist. Da wir dies heute in unserem Handeln nicht berücksichtigen, ist die derzeitige Energiekrise nur der Anfang einer Folge von Krisen, die Energie und Rohstoffe betreffen, solange wir nicht umdenken.Die Verteilung von niedriger Entropie in einer modernen Industriegesellschaft wird mehr oder weniger nach dem Prinzip der konkurrierenden Märkte erreicht. Das selbstregulierende System gerät jedoch mit zunehmender Polarisierung in reiche Industrienationen mit abnehmenden Ressourcen und armen Nationen mit geringer Industrialisierung in Unordnung. Dieses Prinzip berücksichtigt auch nicht die Nachwelt, vor allem wenn die Bevölkerungsdichte stetig zunimmt und die Konsumbedürfnisse anwachsen. Es sind neue soziale, ökonomische und ökologische Normen notwendig, die zur Populationskontrolle, zur Erhaltung der Umwelt und zu einem Zustand niedriger Entropie für zukünftige Generationen führen. Die nach uns kommenden Menschen haben ein Anrecht darauf.
Résumé Matériaux et énergie sont les sources des systèmes économiques et sont régis par les lois de la thermodynamique. Il faut de l'énergie pour transformer les ressources minérales dispersées dans la croûte terrestre en matériaux et structures ordonnancées. Et il faut des matériaux pour receuillir et concentrer l'énergie, qu'elle soit solaire ou atomique, ou provienne de combustibles fossiles ou d'autres sources. Plus les minéraux recherchés sont dispersés et plus est côuteuse l'énergie pour leur donner une ordonnance.Or l'énergie disponsible ne peut être utilisée qu'une seule fois. Et les matériaux ordonnancés des économies industrielles se dégradent avec le temps. Ils peuvent être remis partiellement en état et recyclés, mais pour cela il faut de nouveau de l'énergie. Partout l'énergie disponible se dégrade et l'ordre devient désordre; -malgré toutes les jongleries possibles l'entropie augmente toujours.L'industrie dépend clairement d'états de basse entropie tant en ce qui concerne les matériaux que l'énergie, tandis que plus pauvres sont les minerais, plus; élevée est l'énergie à mettre en jeu pour en extraire les métaux, avec toujours augmentation à la fois de l'entropie et de la degradation des milieux.A l'exception de ce que nous apprécions pour leur valeur intrinsèque — la beauté, le loisir, l'amour ou l'or — la basse entropie est la seule chose de réelle valeur. Son prix est réglé par le marché, et sa valeur augmente au fur et à mesure que l'entropie s'accroît. Ceux qui en disposent seraient insensés de la vendre à bas prix ou en quantité supérieure à ce qu'exige leur propre niveau de vie. Pour cette raison, et à cause des contraintes physiques liées à la disponibilité en états de basse entropie, la récente crise d'énergie n'est, en ce qui concerne les matières premières et l'énergie, que la première d'une série de crises auxquelles il faut s'attendre aussi longtemps que se poursoit la marche actuelle des étènements.Dans les sociétés industrielles modernes, les approvisionnement en basse entropie s'effectuent plus ou moins conformément à la théorie de la concurrence des marchés. Cependant la rationalité de cette théorie se ressent de l'accentuation croissante de la polarisation, à l'échelle du monde, en nations riches, surindustrialisées, à ressources de base décroissantes, et en nations pauvres, sous-industrialisées, mais fournisseurs de resources-naturelles. De plus cette théorie ne tient pas compte de notre postérité, et ce, en face d'une densité de population et d'un taux de la consommation par tête d'habitant en augmentation continue.Nous avons donc besoin de nouvelles normes sociales, économiques et écologiques qui conduisent au contrôle de la population, à la conservation et à la répartition des états de basse entropie à travers les générations pour assurer à notre postérité les options qui leur riviennent de droit comme une constituante importante, mais encore muette, de la collectivité que nous appelons l'Humanité.
, . . . . , . , .. . , , . , , , . , - , , , : , , . .. , , , , , . . , : , — , . , . , , , . .
Dedicated with appreciation to Nicholas Georgescu-Roegen, distinguished economist, realist among cornucopians 相似文献
20.
Models have become so fashionable that many scientists and engineers cannot imagine working without them. The predominant use of computer codes to execute model calculations has blurred the distinction between code and model. The recent controversy regarding model validation has brought into question what we mean by a ‘model’ and by ‘validation.’ It has become apparent that the usual meaning of validation may be common in engineering practice and seems useful in legal practice but it is contrary to scientific practice and brings into question our understanding of science and how it can best be applied to such problems as hazardous waste characterization, remediation, and aqueous geochemistry in general. This review summarizes arguments against using the phrase model validation and examines efforts to validate models for high-level radioactive waste management and for permitting and monitoring open-pit mines. Part of the controversy comes from a misunderstanding of ‘prediction’ and the need to distinguish logical from temporal prediction. Another problem stems from the difference in the engineering approach contrasted with the scientific approach. The reductionist influence on the way we approach environmental investigations also limits our ability to model the interconnected nature of reality. Guidelines are proposed to improve our perceptions and proper utilization of models. Use of the word ‘validation’ is strongly discouraged when discussing model reliability. 相似文献