共查询到19条相似文献，搜索用时 234 毫秒
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无资料地区降水径流模拟是水文学研究的国际前沿和热点问题。水文模型参数移植是无资料地区降水径流模拟的重要方法,对径流模拟精度具有重要的影响。利用核密度估计和蒙特卡罗随机模拟等方法,构建了一种水文模型参数移植误差驱动的无资料地区径流模拟不确定性定量评估框架。以广西壮族自治区42个有水文监测站点的典型中小河流为研究对象,率定新安江模型参数并模拟日径流和洪水过程,将42个典型流域依次假定为无资料流域,利用基于回归分析、相似流域和机器学习的参数移植方法,模拟无资料地区的洪水过程并识别最优的参数移植方法,分析移植法估算的模型参数值和直接率定值相比误差的概率分布特征,定量评估模型参数移植误差带来的径流模拟不确定性。研究结果表明：(1)基于回归分析的参数移植法模拟无资料地区洪水过程的精度优于相似流域法,优选的机器学习算法比传统回归分析法和相似流域法的计算精度提高了7%～15%;(2)与模型参数率定值相比,移植方法计算的模型参数具有一定的误差,对洪水模拟敏感参数的误差小于不敏感参数;(3)受模型参数移植误差的影响,利用蒙特卡罗法随机模拟的洪水过程具有一定的不确定性,洪量和洪峰相对误差的主要区间分别为10... 相似文献
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参数区域化方法是解决资料缺乏地区水文模拟和预报的有效手段,主要包括回归法、空间邻近法和属性相似法三类方法,可将有资料流域的水文模型参数移用到资料缺乏流域。首先回顾了区域化方法的基本原理和应用方法,并分析了三类主要区域化方法的适用性。从流域特征因子、水文模型及参数、不确定性探讨三个方面综述了区域化方法的研究进展。分析发现,当前区域化方法缺乏完善的理论基础,流域特征因子选择存在主观性,水文模型及参数的适用性方面研究不足。最后展望了未来的研究重点：（1）多维度适用性比较;（2）水文过程和参数的空间分布规律;（3）参数的尺度问题;（4）参数区域化的不确定性问题。 相似文献
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缺资料流域水文模型参数区域化研究进展 总被引：6，自引：1，他引：5
缺资料流域由于缺乏历史径流资料无法进行水文模型参数率定,因此模型参数识别具有很大的难度和不确定性。目前国内外学者对缺资料流域水文模型参数识别一般采用区域化方法,即通过某种途径,利用有资料流域的模型参数推求缺资料流域的模型参数,从而对缺资料流域进行预报。文章总结分析了缺资料流域水文模型参数区域化方法中的参数移植法和回归法的研究进展,对存在的方法选择问题、尺度问题等进行了讨论,并指出在参数不确定性、尺度转换以及多种信息源利用等方面还有待于进一步研究。 相似文献
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三江平原位于中国东北部,是国家重要的商品粮基地,水资源的变化影响区域农业经济的发展。应用SWAT(Soil and Water Assessment Tool)模型模拟挠力河上游流域径流变化特征,为研究沼泽性河流水文变化特征提供有效的方法。根据水文相似性原理和参数移植法把校准的模型应用于七星河流域,进行无资料流域的径流模拟,年径流模拟校准期和验证期的Nash-Sutcliffe效率系数、相关系数R2、相对误差PBIAS值分别为0.84、0.94、-5.70和0.91、0.93、-6.46,表明SWAT模型可以应用到七星河流域。 相似文献
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区划方法是目前国际上解决无资料地区水文预报问题的常用方法,是近20年水文学界热点问题之一。本文通过介绍当前国际应用区划方法解决无资料地区水文预报问题的研究进展、存在问题和应用前景,为国内无资料地区水文模拟研究提供借鉴和参考。文章将区划方法分为3类:临近流域替代法、水文相似流域替代法和回归法。通过文献梳理及案例分析,本文指出各类方法的问题、适用范围及不同资料条件下方法选择。最后,通过对国际上无资料地区水文预报的总结分析,提出我国无资料地区研究亟待解决的5个问题。 相似文献
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降雨输入对分布式流域水文模拟具有重要影响。针对流域降雨资料不完整的情况,以武烈河流域为例,基于反距离加权平均法对雨量站降雨资料进行插补延长,并结合SWAT模型研究了降雨输入不确定性对分布式流域水文模拟的影响。结果表明:不同降雨输入对流域平均降雨量的影响较小,但基于气象站资料的降雨数据在降雨空间差异显著的年份会明显低估面雨量,且在夏季汛期表现更为显著;不同降雨输入对分布式流域水文模拟的影响较大;在雨量站降雨资料不完整的情况下,通过对雨量站降雨数据进行插补延长,相对于直接利用气象站降雨资料,在一定程度上可以提高径流模拟精度,满足降雨资料欠缺流域分布式水文模拟的实际需求。 相似文献
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M. Masoud 《Arabian Journal of Geosciences》2015,8(5):2587-2606
Flash flood forecasting of catchment systems is one of the challenges especially in the arid ungauged basins. This study is attempted to estimate the relationship between rainfall and runoff and also to provide flash flood hazard warnings for ungauged basins based on the hydrological characteristics using geographic information system (GIS). Morphometric characteristics of drainage basins provide a means for describing the hydrological behavior of a basin. The study examined the morphometric parameters of Wadi Rabigh with emphasis on its implication for hydrologic processes through the integration analysis between morphometric parameters and GIS techniques. Data for this study were obtained from ASTER data for digital elevation model (DEM) with 30-m resolution, topographic map (1:50,000), and geological maps (1,250,000) which were subject to field confirmation. About 36 morphometric parameters were measured and calculated, and interlinked to produce nine effective parameters for the evaluation of the flash flood hazard degree of the study area. Based on nine effective morphometric parameters that directly influence on the hydrologic behavior of the Wadi through time of concentration, the flash flood hazard of the Rabigh basin and its subbasins was identified and classified into three groups (High, medium, and low hazard degree). The present work proved that the physiographic features of drainage basin contribute to the possibility of a flash flood hazard evaluation for any particular drainage area. The study provides details on the flash flood prone subbasins and the mitigation measures. This study also helps to plan rainwater harvesting and watershed management in the flash flood alert zones. Based on two historical data events of rainfall and the corresponding maximum flow rate, morphometric parameters and Stormwater Management and Design Aid software (SMADA 6), it could be to generate the hydrograph of Wadi Rabigh basin. As a result of the model applied to Wadi Rabigh basin, a rainfall event of a total of 22 mm with a duration of 5 h at the station nearby the study area, which has an exceedance probability of 50 % and return period around 2 years, produces a discharge volume of 15.2?×?106 m3 at the delta, outlet of the basin, as 12.5 mm of the rainfall infiltrates (recharge). 相似文献
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概念性水文模型数量众多,判断模型是否适合研究流域可以通过模拟结果来体现,但是熟悉流域的产汇流特性可以筛选模型,从根源上大量减少工作量,也可以解决相似流域无资料的问题。选取6种概念性水文模型,以马渡王、板桥和志丹这3个半湿润与半干旱流域为研究区域,探讨流域特性与模型结构之间的关系,并通过降雨和地形地貌分析其对模型模拟结果的影响。研究结果表明,流域地形及植被对产汇流过程有重要影响,由于局部产流现象严重,河道坡度影响大于流域平均坡度,当区域气候条件相差不大时,地形地貌比降雨对流域产汇流特性影响更大。因此对于水文模型的选择,可以在熟悉流域产汇流特性的基础上因地制宜,必要时可以增加适合研究流域的模块来获得更好的预报,在半干旱与半湿润流域,同时具有蓄满和超渗机制的模型能得到更好的应用。 相似文献
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无资料地区水文预报研究的方法与出路 总被引：17，自引：2，他引：15
无资料地区的水文研究是最近国际上水资源水环境研究的热点.总结了中国过去在流域洪水预报和设计洪水计算中针对无资料地区研究所取得的相关成果,指出现代水文学应该充分运用新的系统理论和方法,依靠计算机技术和遥感手段,在水文数值模拟方向上寻找无资料地区水文预报的新出路.对无资料地区的水文研究要从有充分实测资料的流域开始,人为隐去部分站点的实测数据以检验依靠剩余少量数据而建成的水文模型的适用性和精度.最后分析了流域分布式水文模型、空间插值、四维同化技术等方法在无资料地区水文预报中的意义和作用. 相似文献
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当前分布式水文模型的参数确定仍主要依赖率定方式, 在缺资料地区应用受到限制。建立一种基于变动饱和带产流模式和网格水滴汇流方法的分布式产汇流模型, 提出利用下垫面特征来确定模型参数的方法。结合野外入渗试验和参数敏感性分析, 建立地表饱和水力传导度(K0z)和饱和水力传导度随深度衰减系数(f)2个敏感性产流参数与地形参数、土壤类型数据的定量统计关系, 利用野外坡面流观测试验确定坡面汇流参数, 并在多个实际流域进行应用验证。结果表明: ①利用地形参数确定K0z与使用遥感资料确定K0z的模型精度进行对比, 在姜湾实验流域场次洪水模拟的平均确定性系数从0.82提高至0.86, 洪峰与洪量误差的平均绝对值分别降低了2.2%和0.95%, 但峰现时间误差平均绝对值增大了4%(仍控制在2 h内)。②建立姜湾等14个流域参数f率定值与不同深度土壤类型数据的定量关系, 移用至七邻等6个流域进行验证, 表明参数f关系式与模型率定的精度非常接近, 相对误差的平均绝对值为2.8%, 场次洪水模拟的平均确定性系数为0.83, 洪峰与洪量误差的平均绝对值为10.07%和6.86%, 峰现时间误差的平均绝对值为2.61 h。提出的敏感性产流参数确定方法与野外实测、模型率定、遥感资料推求等方式进行对比, 均具有较高的参数估计精度和场次洪水模拟精度, 在缺资料地区具有适用性。 相似文献
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S. Isik 《Earth Science Informatics》2013,6(2):87-98
Estimations of annual suspended sediment loads are required for various types of water resources studies. Often estimation of the sediment load is needed for ungauged watersheds. Regionalization methods provide a practical solution to solve such problems. The purpose of this study is to classify suspended sediment yields in watersheds into homogeneous regions in order to identify their regional sediment rating curves. This study has been carried out for suspended sediment stations on 26 main basins of Turkey. Long term-scale suspended sediment rating curves of 115 gauging stations in Turkey were classified using cluster analysis on the basis of hydrological homogeneity. An agglomerative hierarchical clustering algorithm is used so that stations from different geographical locations are considered in the same cluster independently of their geographical location. 115 gauging stations were clustered into 4 different homogenous regions and the regional suspended sediment rating curve was developed for each region. The performance efficiencies of the developed regional rating curves were evaluated for 8 test stations and compared to the performances of rating curves in test sites. A regionalization model is developed for estimating suspended sediment rating curves for ungauged sites in Turkey. The developed regional rating curve models result in very close performances to those of their corresponding site rating curves. 相似文献
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The Hydrograph model (a distributed process-based model) was applied to the simulation of soil freeze-thaw and runoff processes, to assess the viability of the model approach and the influence of specific environmental factors in a permafrost environment. Three mountainous permafrost watersheds were studied, at the Kolyma Water Balance Station in north-eastern Russia. The watersheds include rocky talus, mountainous tundra and moist larch-forest landscape regimes, and they were modelled at daily time-steps for the period 1971–1984. Simulated results of soil freeze-thaw depth and runoff showed reasonable agreement with observed values. This study reveals and mathematically describes the dependence of surface and subsurface flow on thawing depth and landscape characteristics. Process analysis and modelling in permafrost regions, including ungauged basins, is suggested, with observable properties of landscapes being used as model parameters, combined with an appropriate level of physically based conceptualization. 相似文献
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A GIS-based multi-criteria analysis model for earthquake vulnerability assessment using Choquet integral and game theory 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Developing an accurate model for discharge estimation techniques of the ungauged river basin is a crucial challenge in water resource management especially in under-development regions. This article is a thorough review of the historical improvement stages of this topic to understand previous challenges that faced researchers, the shortfalls of methods and techniques, how researchers prevailed and what deficiencies still require solutions. This revision focuses on data-driven approaches and GIS-based methods that have improved the accuracy of estimation of hydrological variables, considering their advantages and disadvantages. Past studies used artificial intelligence and geo-statistical methods to forecast the runoff at ungauged river basins, and mapping the spatial distribution has been considered in this study. A recommendation for future research on the potential of a hybrid model utilizing both approaches is proposed and described. 相似文献