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1.
The Uncertainty in the True End Point of a Fossil's Stratigraphic Range When Stratigraphic Sections Are Sampled Discretely 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Stratigraphic sections are often sampled at well-defined discrete points. Because of the incompleteness of the fossil record, a particular species may not be observed even when it is extant at a sampling point. We introduce a model and Bayesian analysis for estimating the true time of disappearance of a lineage from a section in the face of the possibility that failure to find the species beyond its observed stratigraphic range may represent false negatives. We incorporate proper prior information, including an estimated longevity of the species and the probability that it will be observed if extant. Our analysis produces a posterior density for the true extinction time of the species. Summaries of this probability distribution provide a point estimate of the extinction time, a standard deviation for the uncertainty in the estimate, and confidence intervals for the time of extinction. We apply our model to stratigraphic ranges of benthic foraminifera collected from the early Late Cretaceous (Cenomanian and Turonian) from Eastbourne, England. 相似文献
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Nathalie Bardet 《地学学报》1992,4(6):649-656
The extinction of ichthyosaurs is not well understood both in terns of time and of causation although it is supposed to have happened at some point of the Late Cretaceous. Four species of ichthyosaurs attributed to the single cosmopolitan genus Platypteygius Huene, 1922 are currently recognized from the Albian and Cenomanian, but after that time only fragmentary remains have been described. A review of these available post-Cenomanian ichthyosaur remains reveals that all are doubtful either from a stratigraphic or a systematic point of view. Ichthyosaur extinction may be tentatively correlated with the Cenomanian-Turonian boundary events. During this interval, biological factors such as a break in the food chain attested by severe extinction in marine invertebrates, especially belemnites, may have led to the extinction of ichthyosaurs. 相似文献
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Classical confidence intervals and Bayesian probability estimates for ends of local taxon ranges 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
The observed local range of a fossil taxon in a stratigraphic section is almost certainly a truncated version of the true local range. True endpoints are parameters that may be estimated using only the assumption that fossil finds are distributed randomly between them. If thickness is rescaled so that true endpoints lie at 0 and 1, the joint distribution of gap lengths between fossil finds is given by the Dirichlet distribution. Observed ends of the range are maximum likelihood estimators of true endpoints, but they are biased seriously. Extension of the observed range at each end by a distance equal to the average gap length yields unbiased point estimators. Classical statistics can generate confidence intervals for ends of the taxon range; but with Bayesian inference, the probability that true endpoints lie in a certain region can be stated. For a 95% confidence level (classical) or a 95% probability (Bayesian), the range extensions exceed the observed range if the range is established on less than six finds; if only two finds are used, such range extensions are an order of magnitude longer than the observed range. Evidently the standard biostratigraphic practice that identifies zonal boundaries as horizons rather than confidence intervals may not be justified at the resolution of typical fossiliferous sections. 相似文献
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全球二叠系-三叠系界线(PTB)层型及点("金钉子")定位我国浙江省长兴县煤山D剖面,极大地推动了PTB及二叠系和三叠系研究进展。在简要介绍地层单位与全球界线层型与点建立的相关概念、术语和有关规定、地层划分的主要种类及其地层单位术语的基础上,以全球二叠系—三叠系界线层型及点(中国浙江省长兴县煤山D剖面)为研究实例,综述了该金钉子剖面牙形石生物地层和年代地层研究现状。煤山D剖面构建了目前全球最完整的PTB地层牙形石带序列,为研究二叠纪末大灭绝后生物残存和复苏过程提供了重要的时间坐标系,也为相关的地质事件研究奠定了坚实的基础。 相似文献
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The longevities of species constituting a statistical population have an underlying distribution whose form and parametric values reflect probabilities of origination and extinction through time. In the case that a part of the population is extant, the form of distribution and its parameters cannot be estimated directly from the longevity data without bias. Longevities of extant censored species are truncated and thus do not statistically represent the underlying distribution. The remaining uncensored species do not represent the true relative abundances of longevities. These biases can be defined from the probability densities for species longevitys and intervalr between successive originations of species. For realistic densities ofs andr, species with an intermediate longevity are preferentially censored. This simple, general result arises because the probability of censoring a species increases with its longevity, whereas the probability of censoring a given longevity varies with its relative abundance. 相似文献
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《Earth》2008,90(3-4):97-115
Over 60 faunal species disappeared from the Australian continent during the Middle–Late Pleistocene. Most of these animals were large to gigantic marsupials, birds and reptiles. A terminal extinction date of 46.4 kyr has been proposed for the megafauna, with all sites containing younger fossil megafauna dismissed by some researchers because of questions over stratigraphic integrity or chronologies. The timing of the extinctions is argued to be broadly coincident with estimates of first colonization of the continent by modern humans, and explanatory extinction models involving humans have subsequently gained currency. However there is considerable evidence to suggest that in some parts of the continent, people and some species of megafauna may have co-existed well beyond 46.4 kyr. In other places, such as Tasmania and the north of the continent, there is no known record of a human–megafauna temporal overlap. A review of the available evidence indicates that only 13 species of megafauna were extant on human arrival in Australia. The archaeology of this period indicates that rather than a focus on big game hunting or ‘firestick farming’, it was characterized by regional variability in subsistence strategies consistent with the range of environmental zones. At the present time there is no substantive argument for a terminal extinction date of 46.4 kyr, the current evidence indicating that there is no specific time period that correlates to any single mass extinction event. On the basis of available evidence arguments for either human or climatic causation are entirely circumstantial and implicitly require acceptance of many unproven assumptions. Claims to have eliminated climate as a primary driver are premature and the recent focus on delivering ‘proof’ of human causation in Pleistocene faunal extinctions diverts attention from achieving a better understanding of the differential impacts of climate change and short term climatic flux in a land of environmental extremes. 相似文献
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上二叠统记录着地质历史上最大的生物灭绝事件和最深刻的环境变化。长期以来由于世界各主要沉积区晚二叠世地层的同期性未能确定 ,对这一事件及其过程难以全面了解。随着乐平统成为全球上二叠统的标准 ,我们选用若干生物地层、磁性地层和层序地层等的联接点 ,提出乐平世地层世界对比的试用方案 相似文献
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Oktavites spiralis（Geinitz,1842）是志留系兰多维列统特列奇阶的笔石带化石分子,其独特的盘旋生长模式易于识别,在世界范围内广泛分布,地层意义重要.然而,关于Oktavites spiralis的首现位置始终存在争议,不利于地层的精确对比.在陕西紫阳、岚皋地区,Oktavites spiralis笔石带可以通过带化石丰度变化进行识别,而不是依靠带化石的首现.近来,对陕西紫阳、岚皋地区多个志留系特列奇阶剖面研究后认为,通过幼体特征和盘旋形态对比,一个奥氏笔石新种Oktavites longtanensis sp.nov.可以从Oktavites spiralis和Oktavites contortus中进一步区分出来.新种Oktavites longtanensis sp.nov.化石延限仅限于Oktavites spiralis笔石带,延限较短,并具有重要的演化意义和较强的地层划分对比潜力. 相似文献
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《Sedimentology》2018,65(6):1875-1890
Mudrocks are the most common rock type at the Earth's surface, and they play a major role in informing current understanding of the palaeoenvironmental history of the planet. Their suitability for this purpose is at least partly underpinned by the assumed stratigraphic completeness of mudrock successions, and the ostensible fidelity with which they record temporal changes in palaeoenvironment. Mud does not necessarily accumulate, however, as a steady, near‐continuous ‘rain’ under low energy conditions. Advective modes of mud transport and episodic, ephemeral accumulation have been shown to dominate in many ancient successions. This has implications for the completeness of these records and their suitability for high‐resolution sampling and analysis. In this study, a numerical model of mud accumulation, parameterized with data from the Lower Jurassic of Yorkshire (UK) is presented to explore completeness and resolution constraints on ancient epicontinental mudrock successions. Using this model, stratigraphic completeness of the analysed Yorkshire succession is estimated to be ca 13% and ca 98% at centennial and millennial timescales, respectively. The findings indicate that sub‐millennial scale processes and events are unlikely to be accurately resolved, despite the largely unbioturbated and well‐laminated nature of the succession. Epicontinental mudrock successions are a crucial archive of ancient environmental changes, and the findings of this study help to define a plausible upper limit on the resolution achievable in these successions. Even with high‐resolution sampling, sub‐millennial scale records of palaeoenvironmental change may not be attainable in ancient epicontinental mudrocks. 相似文献
11.
Tong Jinnan Xiao Shiyu Liu Zhili Faculty of Earth Sciences China University of Geosciences Wuhan 《中国地质大学学报(英文版)》2000,11(1)
INTRODUCTIONIn South China,the marine Middle Triassic is distributedmainly over the Yangtze region along the present YangtzeRiver,where the Hercynian orogeny did not happen but thesubsequent Indosinian m ovement greatly changed thepaleogeographic pattern and depositional history.The TriassicIndosinian movement troansfered most parts of the Yangtzeplatform from marine to terrestrial in early or late MiddleTriassic (Table 1) and finally ended the marine history of theseareas.The first … 相似文献
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应用频谱分析技术对测井物理参数记录的沉积旋回在深度域的变化进行了研究,发现沉积速率变化对沉积旋回波长、旋回谱系的组合样式和连续性具有明显的影响。数字模拟实验研究结果表明,在深度域对测井数据进行递进扫描的频谱分析图中,旋回波长和旋回谱系的终止面和转换面,指示沉积速率突变界面,对应地层间断面或沉积体制转型的位置和深度,这是我们识别旋回层序界面的标志,这一结论在深海钻孔中得到了验证。文中详细地介绍了从测井曲线数据中提取沉积旋回信号的数据处理方法和流程,提出根据原始测井曲线建立的极值曲线,可以检测到最明显的旋回波长为10 m级的频谱信号,这一层级的旋回层序界面,可以作为区域等时对比的基准。文中以川西上三叠统须家河组为例,根据自然伽马测井曲线的频谱分析,讨论了旋回层序界面在解决地震层序界面标定中的实用价值。 相似文献
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笔者运用现代沉积学和层序地层学理论，对陕西镇安西口地区二叠系-三叠系的主要不整合面和地质体的岩相岩石组合特征及空间展布规律进行调查，在此基础上并依据前人研究资料，将区内二叠系-三叠系划分为4个层序单位，进而对单位内的体系域系统进行了划分和研究，建立了该地区地层格架与地层模型。通过研究认为，4次大幅度海平面变化及区域构造沉降作用是形成4个Ⅱ型不整合面的根本原因。该地区自晚二叠世，在不同阶段的盆地演化过程中，皆继承了西浅东深的古地理格局，此项研究成果为在构造活动地带相对稳定地区进行地层格架与地层模型提供了范例。 相似文献
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马维俊 《沉积与特提斯地质》1988,8(6):15-20
盆地的地层格架(stratigraphic framework)是盆地分析最基本、最重要的参数之一(李思田等,1983),它是指沉积盆地的外部和内部几何形态以及组成盆地的层的堆积性质。概括地说,地层格架不仅指盆地的固体几何形态和盆地所包含的地层单元或单元序列的固体几何形态,而且涉及到单个地层单元的性质,最终体现了沉积环境(Conybeare,1979)。衡量地层格架这一参数应从以下几方面来考虑: 1.盆地的外部几何形态盆地的外部几何形态应该为其真实的固体空间形态所反映,应该包括盆地的平面几何 相似文献
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云南江城钾盐基准井位于思茅凹陷东区南部向斜翼部两条断层交汇处,构造相对发育,岩石破碎。其施工目的主要目的是通过取心钻进获取＂中、新生代＂含盐建造完整的地层序列,建立一个可供找钾参照的＂标杆地层柱＂。其施工的难点是上部地层以石英砂岩为主,与泥岩互层,泥岩较软、易水化、难取心;砂岩坚硬、研磨性强;下部地层主要以泥岩为主夹薄层砂岩,泥岩致密硬脆,在孔底呈弹塑性,可钻性极差。通过选择合理的钻井设备,优化钻具组合,制订切合实际的钻进参数,采用镁基盐水钻井液,进行川-74取心筒传统取心和绳索取心钻进,获得了盐矿心无溶蚀现象,井眼轨迹和岩心采取率均达到设计要求的较好效果。 相似文献
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升平油田葡萄花油层高分辨率层序地层格架及储层特征 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
利用高分辨率层序地层理论分析方法,在升平油田葡萄花油层三维地震资料及15口井岩心和356口井测井资料综合研究的基础上,通过不同级次基准面旋回界面特征的识别,将本区划分为1个长期、2个中期、6个短期和13个超短期层序,以超短期层序为目标,建立了单砂体等时对比单元的地层格架。以超短期层序为控制目标,详细研究了葡萄花油层沉积微相及单砂体分布规律:基准面上升期是三角洲河道砂体发育最有利时期,单砂体厚度大连续分布广;湖泛期细粒沉积物分布广泛,储集层不发育;基准面下降期受下切作用影响,河道砂体不发育。提出了葡萄花油层超短期旋回层序由于同沉积构造抬升作用所导致的从北到南逐渐减薄超覆尖灭新地层模式。 相似文献
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The middle Silurian ‘big crisis’ refers to a graptolite extinction event and faunal turnover at the onset of a double‐peaked positive carbon isotope excursion. The crisis has been proposed to affect conodonts, giving rise to a sophisticated palaeoecological model of their stepwise extinction, known as the Mulde Event. However, the impact of the event on conodont faunas outside Gotland and the Silurian Baltic Basin remains unknown. Here, it is examined in the Widowo IG‐1 core (E Poland). The middle Silurian succession in this core represents foreshoal, shoal, and lagoonal settings on a tropical carbonate ramp on the shelf of the Eastern European Craton. Three positive δ13Ccarb excursions have been identified; the two upper excursions correlate with the Mulde isotope anomaly and with two global eustatic regressions. Conodont species proposed to be affected by the extinction event either were not observed or ranged through the extinction interval. Changes in their frequencies are best explained by the sequence stratigraphic architecture of the late Wenlock strata in the Widowo IG‐1 core. The little impact of the ‘big crisis’ may reflect facies homogeneity across the studied interval, supporting the hypothesis that the late Wenlock conodont turnover in epicontinental settings was primarily driven by eustatically controlled facies shifts. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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Human arrival in Sahul – Pleistocene Australia and New Guinea – has long been argued as the catalyst in the decline and disappearance of a suite of extinct animals referred to as megafauna. The debate concerning causality in Sahul is highly polarised, with climate change often cited as the alternative explanatory model. On continental Australia, there are few datasets available with which to explore the likely processes leading to the extinction events. At the present time, there is one site in New Guinea (Nombe Rockshelter) and one on continental Australia (Cuddie Springs) where the coexistence and temporal overlap of humans and megafauna has been identified. The Cuddie Springs Pleistocene archaeological site in southeastern Australia contains an association of fossil extinct and extant fauna with an archaeological record through two sequential stratigraphic units dating from c. 36 to c. 30 ka ago. A taphonomic study of the fossil fauna has revealed an accumulation of bone in a primary depositional context, consistent with a waterhole death assemblage. Overall the faunal assemblage studied here (n: 8146; NISP: 1355) has yielded little direct evidence of carnivore damage or human activities. Post depositional factors such as physical destruction incurred by trampling, compaction of sediments, and/or the hydrological status of the lake at that time have played important roles. As the only known site on continental Australia where megafauna and humans co-occur, the Cuddie Springs faunal assemblage yields equivocal evidence for a significant human role in the accumulation of the fauna here. At the present time there is no evidential basis to the argument that humans had a primary role in the extinction of the Australian megafauna. The first colonisers are likely to have preyed upon those few species known to have persisted to this time, but their impact may have been restricted to the tail end of a process that had been underway for millennia prior to human arrival. 相似文献