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1.
Tropical cyclones are the most common natural disasters in coastal regions and are the most costly in terms of economic losses.
Economic loss assessment is the basis for disaster prevention and alleviation and for insurance indemnification. We use data
from 1970 to 2008 for Zhejiang Province, China, in this study evaluating economic losses. We convert direct economic losses
from tropical cyclone disasters in Zhejiang Province into indices of direct economic losses. To establish our assessment model,
we process disaster-inducing assessment factors, disaster-formative environments and disaster-affected bodies using the principal
component analysis method, and we abstract the principal component as the input of a BP neural network model. We found in
the actual assessments of five tropical cyclones affecting Zhejiang Province in 2007 and 2008 that the post-disaster loss
assessment values of tropical cyclones were higher than the actual losses, but that for more severe storms, the gap was smaller.
This reflects the beneficial effect of efforts toward disaster prevention and alleviation for severe tropical cyclones. Pre-assessments
based on relatively accurate forecast values of wind and precipitation at the start of a tropical cyclone have been in accordance
with the post-disaster assessment values, while the pre-assessment results using less accurate forecast values have been unsatisfactory.
Therefore, this model can be applied in the actual assessment of direct economic loss from tropical cyclone damage, but increasingly
accurate forecasting of wind and precipitation remains crucial to improving the accuracy of pre-assessments. 相似文献
2.
Most of the countries around the North Indian Ocean are threatened by storm surges associated with severe tropical cyclones.
The destruction due to the storm surge flooding is a serious concern along the coastal regions of India, Bangladesh, Myanmar,
Pakistan, Sri Lanka, and Oman. Storm surges cause heavy loss of lives and property damage to the coastal structures and losses
of agriculture which lead to annual economic losses in these countries. About 300,000 lives were lost in one of the most severe
cyclones that hit Bangladesh (then East Pakistan) in November 1970. The Andhra Cyclone devastated part of the eastern coast
of India, killing about 10,000 persons in November 1977. More recently, the Chittagong cyclone of April 1991 killed 140,000
people in Bangladesh, and the Orissa coast of India was struck by a severe cyclonic storm in October 1999, killing more than
15,000 people besides enormous loss to the property in the region. These and most of the world’s greatest natural disasters
associated with the tropical cyclones have been directly attributed to storm surges. The main objective of this article is
to highlight the recent developments in storm surge prediction in the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea. 相似文献
3.
Fine assessment of tropical cyclone disasters based on GIS and SVM in Zhejiang Province, China 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
Tropical cyclones represent major natural disasters in low- and mid-latitude coastal areas. Effective assessment of tropical cyclone disasters provides a scientific reference for the formulation of tropical cyclone prevention and disaster-relief measures. Tropical cyclone disasters in Zhejiang Province are mainly studied based on GIS technology, by considering disaster-causing factors, disaster-affected bodies, the disaster-formative environment, and spatial distribution of disaster prevention and relief capacity. In light of an uncertain nonlinear relationship between assessment factors and disaster factors, we used support vector machines to establish a fine, quantitative assessment model. This model evaluates the following disaster indices: Disaster-affected population, direct economic loss, affected crop area, and number of damaged houses resulting from a tropical cyclone disaster in Zhejiang, with the county as basic assessment unit. Assessment of tropical cyclone No. 0908 shows that the developed assessment model is able to accurately evaluate the geographical distribution of losses caused by a tropical cyclone. 相似文献
4.
Tropical cyclones are the most hazardous weather systems, which form over warm ocean waters. The frequencies of tropical cyclones show variabilities over all the oceanic basins, during the El-Niño and El-Niño Modoki years. Recent studies have shown significant impact of air–sea interaction processes like El-Niño and El-Niño Modoki on the cyclone activity over different ocean basins. The results suggest in most cases, El-Niño events suppress the formation of cyclones over various basins. A recent study indicated that concurrent occurrence of El-Niño Modoki and positive Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) events can generate more cyclones over north-west Pacific. We propose to study the impact of El-Niño Modoki events on the formation of tropical cyclones over north Indian Ocean (NIO). Our present study suggests that the cyclogenesis over the NIO is a complex phenomenon, as it is influenced by several coupled ocean atmospheric phenomena such as El-Niño, El-Niño Modki, IOD and Madden–Julian oscillation. 相似文献
5.
6.
The cyclones over Bay of Bengal (BoB) have varied socio-economic impacts and meteorological importance. There are considerable uncertainties in predicting the track and intensity of cyclonic systems in the BoB. The present study examines the cyclogenesis characteristics over the BoB and addresses the regional impacts and their importance in terms of intensification of cyclones. An analysis of cyclone track data from 1971–2013 reveals that the cyclones generated in Andaman Sea (a regional sea of BoB) and propagating through central BoB sustain maximum life time. Furthermore, within the BoB, the cyclones originated from Andaman Sea are the most intensified and characterized by highest cyclogenesis potential index. Interestingly, we have found that higher value of mid-tropospheric relative humidity over Andaman Sea during the cyclone period is enhancing the cyclone’s intensity. Climatologically also the Andaman Sea is dominated by higher values of mid-tropospheric relative humidity compared to other regions of BoB. There is no significant distinction between Andaman Sea and rest of the BoB for other meteorological and oceanic parameters that supports cyclogenesis. Climatologically dominant east–west asymmetry in mid-tropospheric relative humidity is enhancing the intensity of cyclones from Andaman Sea. The results will be helpful in understanding the processes of cyclone intensification and useful in the statistical and dynamical prediction of cyclones. 相似文献
7.
Xin Huang Hongzhuan Tan Jia Zhou Tubao Yang Abuaku Benjamin Shi Wu Wen Shuoqi Li Aizhong Liu Xinhua Li Shuidong Fen Xinli Li 《Natural Hazards》2008,47(1):65-73
Natural and man-made disasters have been increasing and affecting millions of people throughout the world. Floods are the
most common natural disasters affecting more people across the globe than all other natural or technological disasters and
also are the most costly in terms of human hardship and economic loss. In order to explore the total economic loss, components
of economic loss, and factors influencing economic loss during flooding, a retrospective study was carried out in year 2000
in areas that suffered floods in 1998 in Hunan province, China. A total of 10,722 families were investigated using a multistage
sampling method. We found that the total economic loss to the 10,722 families investigated was US$ 8.925 million; translating
into an average economic loss of US$ 832.45 per family and US$ 216.75 per person. Economic loss related to property loss,
income loss, and increased medical cost accounted for 57.38%, 40.00%, and 2.62% of the total economic loss, respectively.
Economic loss was significantly related to a family’s pre-flood income; duration of the flood; severity of flood; and type
of flood. River floods yielded the highest economic loss and drainage problem floods yielded the lowest loss. We recommended
that flood-related preventive measures should focus on the prevention of river floods and shortening the duration of floods
with the view of significantly minimizing economic losses associated with floods. 相似文献
8.
浙江宁波市地质灾害的雨量阈值及预报分析 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
山体滑坡、崩塌、泥石流等地质灾害主要由强降水或连续性降水引发产生,根据最近七年来宁波市国土资源局和宁波市气象台联合制作的地质灾害气象预报预警和地质灾害实况资料分析,结果发现:在最近七年里出现的159处地质灾害中,由热带气旋强降水引发的地质灾害有142处,约占89%;宁波市绝大多数地质灾害是由强降水引发,而强降水中又以热带气旋强降水为主要诱因,引发宁波市地质灾害的有效雨量大多数在100mm以上,因此,100mm有效雨量可作为预报引发宁波市地质灾害的雨量阈值,而200mm有效雨量可引发多处地质灾害产生。统计结果为以后地质灾害气象预报预警及强降水的临近监测提供参考依据。 相似文献
9.
Gazi Md. Khalil 《Natural Hazards》1992,6(1):11-24
Bangladesh, with its repeated cycle of floods, cyclones, and storm surges, has proved to be one of the most disaster-prone areas of the world. During the years from 1797 to 1991, Bangladesh has been hit by 60 severe cyclones (mostly accompanied by storm surges). This paper gives a brief account of these disasters with particular reference to the wind speed, surge height, loss of life, and damage to crops and properties, etc.In order to protect the coastal areas of Bangladesh from cyclonic storm surges and floods, a major system of embankments was constructed during the 1960s and 1970s, but this is now in need of rehabilitation. The Cyclone Protection Project, which was approved by the World Bank in 1989, would rehabilitate some of the existing embankments, build new embankments, and construct roads. Locally available materials, indigenous technology, and cheap surplus manpower should be used in this project. A variety of fruit trees should be planted along the dikes and roads.To the south-western part of Bangladesh bordering the Bay of Bengal, lies the world's largest single mangrove tract, known as the Sunderban, which covers a total area of 571 500 ha. This mangrove forest is of extreme importance since it provides efficient protection to life and property against cyclones and storm surges. But due to deforestation, the width of the mangrove belt is being rapidly diminished. The author therefore lays emphasis on coastal afforestation.Absolute security against cyclone hazard is probably out of the question, but an effective cyclone warning response can definitely reduce loss of life and damage to property. The author discusses the current conditions for cyclone forecasting and warning in Bangladesh, and then puts forward some proposals for improving the Cyclone Preparedness Programme. 相似文献
10.
Shifting Economic Impacts from Weather Extremes in the United States: A Result of Societal Changes,Not Global Warming 总被引：4，自引：2，他引：4
Loss values from extremes in the U.S. and elsewhere have been more qualitativethan quantitative, but recent pressures for better information have led to newassessments and better estimates of financial losses from extremes. These pressureshave included concerns over potential impacts of more extremes due to global warmingfostered by ever increasing costs to the insurance industry and government from weather extremes; plus a series of massive losses during the past 15 years (drought of 1988–1989,Hurricane Andrew in 1992, and Midwestern 1993 floods). These recent assessmentsattempted to adjust data for societal changes over time and thus derived new and betterestimates of losses for seven major extremes than existed previously. Three extremeshave annual average losses in excess of a billion dollars (1998 dollars) includinghurricanes ($4.2 billion), floods ($3.2 billion), and severe local storms ($1.6 billion).One extreme and its adjusted losses exhibit upward trends (floods), but all others showno increases with time or temporal decreases (hail, hurricanes, tornadoes, and severethunderstorms). Annual national losses during 1950–1997 from the three major extremes, plus four others (hail, tornadoes, winter storms, and wind storms), collectively reveal no upward or downward trend over time, with an average annual loss of $10.3 billion. The quality loss values do not indicate an increase as has been postulated for global warming. The good news is that better estimates of impacts now exist, but the bad news is that they are still estimates and do not include sizable unmeasured losses. If accurate data on the economic impacts from weather extremes are seen as important for scientific research and policy-making for global warming, the U.S. needs a continuing program to adequately measure losses from weather extremes. 相似文献
11.
H. Daniel Stillwell 《Natural Hazards》1992,6(2):131-159
Natural hazards and disasters occur widely throughout the world. Disasters can be costly both in terms of human lives and property and ecosystem disruption. Higher death tolls in developing nations may be the result of poverty, rapid population growth, urbanization, and inadequate communication facilities. The purpose of this study is to show patterns of major catastrophic events in Latin America so that their impacts can be evaluated and compared.Latin America was selected because of the variety of recent events commanding wide attention: earthquakes in Mexico, volcanic eruptions in Colombia, hurricanes and floods in Haiti, and drought and mudflows in Brazil. Spatial and temporal aspects of natural disasters are presented in nine tables and 21 maps. The tables give selected disaster data by country for volcanic eruptions, earthquakes, landslides, and atmospheric disturbances from the 16th century to 1989. Most data is derived from disasters occurring during the 20th century and include number of events, people killed, people affected, and U.S.$ damage. Maps show environmental settings for disasters and allow detailed comparison among countries. Floods account for the greatest number of major events in the most countries, earthquakes cause the most deaths and damage, while droughts affect the most people. Peru surpasses all others in susceptibility to major disasters. Assessment of vulnerability to hazards, improved economic opportunities, and an increased social and political concern for poor people should help reduce future losses from natural disasters in Latin America. 相似文献
12.
Research efforts focused on assessing the potential for changes in tropical cyclone activity in the greenhouse-warmed climate
have progressed since the IPCC assessment in 1996. Vulnerability to tropical cyclones becoming more pronounced due to the
fastest population growth in tropical coastal regions makes it practically important to explore possible changes in tropical
cyclone activity due to global warming. This paper investigates the tropical cyclone activity over whole globe and also individually
over six different ocean basins. The parameters like storm frequency, storm duration, maximum intensity attained and location
of formation of storm have been examined over the past 30-year period from 1977 to 2006. Of all, the north Atlantic Ocean
shows a significant increasing trend in storm frequency and storm days, especially for intense cyclones. Lifetime of intense
tropical cyclones over south Indian Ocean has been increased. The intense cyclonic activity over north Atlantic, south-west
Pacific, north and south Indian Ocean has been increased in recent 15 years as compared to previous 15 years, whereas in the
east and west-north Pacific it is decreased, instead weak cyclone activity has been increased there. Examination of maximum
intensity shows that cyclones are becoming more and more intense over the south Indian Ocean with the highest rate. The study
of the change in the cyclogenesis events in the recent 15 years shows more increase in the north Atlantic. The Arabian Sea
experiences increase in the cyclogenesis in general, whereas Bay of Bengal witnesses decrease in these events. Shrinking of
cyclogenesis region occurs in the east-north Pacific and south-west Pacific, whereas expansion occurs in west-north Pacific.
The change in cyclogenesis events and their spatial distribution in association with the meteorological parameters like sea
surface temperature (SST), vertical wind shear has been studied for Indian Ocean. The increase in SST and decrease in wind
shear correspond to increase in the cyclogenesis events and vice versa for north Indian Ocean; however, for south Indian Ocean,
it is not one to one. 相似文献
13.
Yihui Ding Xiaolong Jia Zunya Wang Xianyan Chen Lijuan Chen 《Frontiers of Earth Science》2009,3(2):129-145
The present paper has made a comparison of major similarities and differences of extreme cold events between the cold and
warm periods for recent 50 years, in order to gain a better insight into the impact of the global warming on extreme cold
events in China. Two typical events of low temperature, ice freezing and snow disasters that occurred in January 2008 and
in the winter of 1954/1955, respectively, are selected as representative cases for the cold period (1950’s–1970’s) and the
warm period (1980’s-present). The contrasting study has revealed that these two events both occurred under long-persistent
blocking circulation over Eurasian continent, with continuous invasions of strong cold air into China mainland. They nearly
brought about similar weather disasters such as extensive low temperature, record-breaking freezing rains and exceptionally
heavy snowfalls. However, due to active northward transport of warm and moist air from Bay of Bengal and Indo-China Peninsula
in the warm period, the January 2008 case had longer freezing rain days and heavier snowstorms in South China, thus leading
to much more severe damage to electric grids and transportations. The case of the 1954/1955 winter was a stronger, extreme
cold event than the case of January 2008, in terms of magnitudes of temperature drop and severity of impact on river icing.
It was gradually recovered to normal condition while the case of January 2008 had a very rapid recovery to warming condition
due to impact of the global warming. 相似文献
14.
15.
In probabilistic terms, Bangladesh is prone, to at least one major 'tropical cyclone' every year. This situation is primarily due to the geographical location of Bangladesh in tropical Asia, and to its concave coastline and shallow continental shelf. The devastating impact of such cyclones on humans stems from a combination of intense human occupation of the area, predominance of traditional sociocultural values and religion, the precarious socioeconomic conditions of the majority of the coastal inhabitants, and the lack of a coordinated institutional disaster planning and management strategy. Bangladesh has experienced several catastrophic environmental disasters during the last decade; among these events, the 1991 April cyclone was the most catastrophic in terms of both physical and human dimensions.An initial study was carried out in the coastal regions of Bangladesh less than two weeks after they were hit by the severe cyclone of 29 April 1991. This research examined the process through which warning of the impending disastrous cyclone was received by the local communities and disseminated throughout the coastal regions of Bangladesh. It was found that the identification of the threatening condition due to atmospheric disturbance, the monitoring of the hazard event, and the dissemination of the cyclone warning were each very successful. The present study followed up on the initial research by surveying 267 respondents with an elaborate survey instrument, focusing on the most crucial academic and planning issues identified in the 1991 study. In particular, the nature and characteristics of the cyclone preparedness of the coastal inhabitants were assessed by the study; other factors considered included rural-urban variations, mainland-island differences, the nature and role of previous knowledge, and the disaster experience.The survey results show the variety of indigenous adjustment mechanisms that help to rehabilitate the survivors; also visible are the profound roles played by the social inequality variables and the magnitude of physical vulnerability in influencing the disaster loss and recovery process. The study recommends that hazard mitigation policies should be integrated with national economic development plans and programs. Specifically, it is suggested that the cyclone warning system should incorporate the human response to warnings as its constituent part, and in this way accommodating human dimensions in its operational design. 相似文献
16.
《International Geology Review》2012,54(5):401-405
Economic and social development throughout the world is frequently interrupted by extreme events. The Pacific Rim is particularly vulnerable to natural disasters, thus to social and economic losses. Although disaster events impact both developed and developing countries, in the latter, they can cause a sharp increase in poverty. As disasters pose an important challenge to the development of the Pacific Rim, it is important to assess their global, regional, economic, and social impacts. Most economic assessments of the impacts of disasters have concentrated on direct losses—that is, the financial cost of physical damage. Equally important are indirect and secondary impacts of disasters, including the destruction of communities and their negative impacts on families. The challenges posed by potential disasters in the Pacific Rim countries require rapid action, and also an energetic risk-management strategy. To help reduce those negative impacts, countries need an overall evaluation of their risks, including: (i) risk identification, (ii) risk reduction, and (iii) risk transfer. It is expected that concerted action on risk management will help create an increased awareness of the economy—wide significance of natural disasters and the problems they pose for long—term development. Accordingly, this growing awareness will lead to an increased resilience in the countries of the Pacific Rim. 相似文献
17.
Climate Change is anticipatedto result in alterations in cyclone activity over the northern hemisphere. Cyclones in their passage across the open prairie of western Canada spawn one of the more extreme weather events that occur in that part of the country; blizzards. Numerous studies of individual blizzards are available. The objective of this study of blizzards is to identify trends in their seasonal occurrence, in seasonal blizzard weather element extremes, and discuss the results in the context of climate change. Criteria used in western Canada to define a blizzard event during the period of study were applied to the archive of hourly weather data for locations within the Prairie Ecozone. Blizzard events were extracted for the period 1953–1997 and analyzed for trends in seasonal occurrence. Results of this analysis are presented which illustrate a significant downward trend for weather observing locations in the more westerly part of the prairies. This trend is consistent with results found by others that indicate a decrease in cyclone frequency over western Canada. No significant trend was found in the more central and eastern locations. No significant trend was evident in seasonal extremes of blizzard weather elements at most locations. 相似文献
18.
Iware Matsuda 《GeoJournal》1993,31(4):319-325
The 1991 Cyclone claimed more than 140,000 lives in Bangladesh. However, comparison of human casualty figures between the cyclones of 1970 and 1991 points to the effectiveness of cyclone shelters constructed after the 1970 disaster. Many inaccuracies of the regional data on social and natural circumstances affecting human losses, such as location of cyclone shelters, refuge-seeking behavior and poor population data are discussed. Based on field studies, comprehensive countermeasures are recommended, and it is mentioned that non-structural countermeasures are important to make structural ones more effective. 相似文献
19.
浅析甘肃小流域分布特性及山洪灾害成灾特点 总被引：5，自引：1，他引：5
暴雨洪水是自然界的主要灾害之一,它是水文现象的极端事件。山洪给国民经济和人民的生命财产造成很大损失,它是甘肃经济社会发展的重要制约因素之一。随着经济发展,人口增加,山洪给国民经济和社会发展带来的损失将越来越大,因此,防洪减灾任务仍十分艰巨。本文对甘肃省小流域分布特性及山洪成灾特点进行了分析,并提出了山洪灾害防治的建议。 相似文献
20.
Global Perspectives on Loss of Human Life Caused by Floods 总被引：14，自引：4，他引：10
Every year floods cause enormous damage all over the world. This study investigates loss of human life statistics for different types of floods and different regions on a global scale. The OFDA/CRED Database contains data on international disasters and is maintained by the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters in Brussels (CRED) in cooperation with United States Office for Foreign Disaster Assistance (OFDA). Information from this source on a large number of flood events, which occurred between January 1975 and June 2002, is evaluated with respect to flood location and flood type. Due to the limited availability of information on coastal flood events, the scope of this study is limited to three types of freshwater flooding: river floods, flash floods and drainage problems. First, the development of loss of life statistics over time is discussed. Second, the dataset is analysed by region, by flood type and by the combination of type and region. The study shows that flash floods result in the highest average mortality per event (the number of fatalities divided by the number of affected persons). A cross analysis by flood type and location shows that average mortality is relatively constant for the different types over various continents, while the magnitude of the impacts (numbers of killed) and affected for a certain type varies between the different continents. On a worldwide scale Asian river floods are most significant in terms of number of persons killed and affected. Finally, a comparison with figures for other types of natural disasters shows that floods are the most significant disaster type in terms of the number of persons affected. 相似文献