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1.
Hurricane surge events have caused devastating damage in active-hurricane areas all over the world. The ability to predict surge elevations and to use this information for damage estimation is fundamental for saving lives and protecting property. In this study, we developed a framework for evaluating hurricane flood risk and identifying areas that are more prone to them. The approach is based on the joint probability method with optimal sampling (JPM-OS) using surge response functions (SRFs) (JPM-OS-SRF). Derived from a discrete set of high-fidelity storm surge simulations, SRFs are non-dimensional, physics-based empirical equations with an algebraic form, used to rapidly estimate surge as a function of hurricane parameters (i.e., central pressure, radius, forward speed, approach angle and landfall location). The advantage of an SRF-based approach is that a continuum of storm scenarios can be efficiently evaluated and used to estimate continuous probability density functions for surge extremes, producing more statistically stable surge hazard assessments without adding measurably to epistemic uncertainty. SRFs were developed along the coastline and then used to estimate maximum surge elevations with respect to a set of hurricane parameters. Integrating information such as ground elevation, property value and population with the JPM-OS-SRF allows quantification of storm surge-induced hazard impacts over the continuum of storm possibilities, yielding a framework to create the following risk-based products, which can be used to assist in hurricane hazard management and decision making: (1) expected annual loss maps; (2) flood damage versus return period relationships; and (3) affected business (e.g., number of business, number of employees) versus return period relationships. By employing several simplifying assumptions, the framework is demonstrated at three northern Gulf of Mexico study sites exhibiting similar surge hazard exposure. The framework results reveal Gulfport, MS, USA is at relatively more risk of economic loss than Corpus Christi, TX, USA, and Panama City, FL, USA. Note that economic processes are complex and very interrelated to most other human activities. Our intention here is to present a methodology to quantify the flood damage (i.e., infrastructure economic loss, number of businesses affected, number of employees in these affected businesses and sales volume in these affected businesses) but not to discuss the complex interactions of these damages with other economic activities and recovery plans. 相似文献
2.
Hurricane surge events have caused devastating damage in active-hurricane areas all over the world. The ability to predict surge elevations and to use this information for damage estimation is fundamental for saving lives and protecting property. In this study, we developed a framework for evaluating hurricane flood risk and identifying areas that are more prone to them. The approach is based on the joint probability method with optimal sampling (JPM-OS) using surge response functions (SRFs) (JPM-OS-SRF). Derived from a discrete set of high-fidelity storm surge simulations, SRFs are non-dimensional, physics-based empirical equations with an algebraic form, used to rapidly estimate surge as a function of hurricane parameters (i.e., central pressure, radius, forward speed, approach angle and landfall location). The advantage of an SRF-based approach is that a continuum of storm scenarios can be efficiently evaluated and used to estimate continuous probability density functions for surge extremes, producing more statistically stable surge hazard assessments without adding measurably to epistemic uncertainty. SRFs were developed along the coastline and then used to estimate maximum surge elevations with respect to a set of hurricane parameters. Integrating information such as ground elevation, property value and population with the JPM-OS-SRF allows quantification of storm surge-induced hazard impacts over the continuum of storm possibilities, yielding a framework to create the following risk-based products, which can be used to assist in hurricane hazard management and decision making: (1) expected annual loss maps; (2) flood damage versus return period relationships; and (3) affected business (e.g., number of business, number of employees) versus return period relationships. By employing several simplifying assumptions, the framework is demonstrated at three northern Gulf of Mexico study sites exhibiting similar surge hazard exposure. The framework results reveal Gulfport, MS, USA is at relatively more risk of economic loss than Corpus Christi, TX, USA, and Panama City, FL, USA. Note that economic processes are complex and very interrelated to most other human activities. Our intention here is to present a methodology to quantify the flood damage (i.e., infrastructure economic loss, number of businesses affected, number of employees in these affected businesses and sales volume in these affected businesses) but not to discuss the complex interactions of these damages with other economic activities and recovery plans.
相似文献3.
Storm surge induced by hurricane is a major threat to the Gulf Coasts of the United States. A numerical modeling study was conducted to simulate the storm surge during Hurricane Michael, a category 5 hurricane that landed on the Florida Panhandle in 2018. A high-resolution model mesh was used in the ADCIRC hydrodynamic model to simulate storm surge and tides during the hurricane. Two parametric wind models, Holland 1980 model and Holland 2010 model, have been evaluated for their effects on the accuracy of storm surge modeling by comparing simulated and observed maximum water levels along the coast. The wind model parameters are determined by observed hurricane wind and pressure data. Results indicate that both Holland 1980 and Holland 2010 wind models produce reasonable accuracy in predicting maximum water level in Mexico Beach, with errors between 1 and 3.7%. Comparing to the observed peak water level of 4.74 m in Mexico Beach, Holland 1980 wind model with radius of 64-knot wind speed for parameter estimation results in the lowest error of 1%. For a given wind model, the wind profiles are also affected by the wind data used for parameter estimation. Away from hurricane eye wall, using radius of 64-knot wind speed for parameter estimation generally produces weaker wind than those using radius of 34-knot wind speed for parameter estimation. Comparing model simulated storm tides with 17 water marks observed along the coast, Holland 2010 wind model using radius of 34-knot wind speed for parameter estimation leads to the minimum mean absolute error. The results will provide a good reference for researchers to improve storm surge modeling. The validated model can be used to support coastal hazard mitigation planning.
相似文献4.
Coastal inundation from hurricane storm surges causes catastrophic damage to lives and property, as evidenced by recent hurricanes including Katrina and Wilma in 2005 and Ike in 2008. Changes in hurricane activity and sea level due to a warming climate, together with growing coastal population, are expected to increase the potential for loss of property and lives. Current inundation hazard maps: Base Flood Elevation maps and Maximum of Maximums are computationally expensive to create in order to fully represent the hurricane climatology, and do not account for climate change. This paper evaluates the coastal inundation hazard in Southwest Florida for present and future climates, using a high resolution storm surge modeling system, CH3D-SSMS, and an optimal storm ensemble with multivariate interpolation, while accounting for climate change. Storm surges associated with the optimal storms are simulated with CH3D-SSMS and the results are used to obtain the response to any storm via interpolation, allowing accurate representation of the hurricane climatology and efficient generation of hazard maps. Incorporating the impact of anticipated climate change on hurricane and sea level, the inundation maps for future climate scenarios are made and affected people and property estimated. The future climate scenarios produce little change to coastal inundation, due likely to the reduction in hurricane frequency, except when extreme sea level rise is included. Calculated coastal inundation due to sea level rise without using a coastal surge model is also determined and shown to significantly overestimate the inundation due to neglect of land dissipation. 相似文献
5.
Aurelio Mercado 《Natural Hazards》1994,10(3):235-246
A numerical-dynamic, tropical storm surge model, SLOSH (Sea, Land, and Overland Surges from Hurricanes), was originally developed for real-time forecasting of hurricane storm surges on continental shelves, across inland water bodies and along coastlines and for inland routing of water -either from the sea or from inland water bodies. The model is two-dimensional, covering water bodies and inundated terrain. In the present version available at the University of Puerto Rico a curvilinear, polar coordinate grid scheme is used. The grid cells are approximately 3.2 × 3.2 km in size.The model has been used in a revision of all coastal Flood Insurance Rate Maps (FIRM) for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, and in hurricane evacuation studies. The FIRM's, since they are based on the 100 year stillwater elevation, are also used by the state Planning Board for regulatory purposes. The hurricane evacuation studies are used by emergency planners and personnel to assign shelters, escape routes, and delimit coastal zones that need to be evacuated during a hurricane threat.Recently, the acquisition of data from hurricane Hugo has allowed the first comparison of model results and observations for Puerto Rico and the other islands. 相似文献
6.
Accurate quantification of hurricane surge probabilities is critically important for coastal planning and design. Recently, the joint probability method has been shown to yield statistically reliable surge probabilities and has quickly become the method of choice for extreme-value surge analysis in the United States. A main disadvantage of the joint probability method is the requirement to have accurate computational surge simulations for a large array of hurricane conditions. Recently, this shortcoming has been overcome by using a variety of interpolation schemes to reduce the number of surge simulations required to an optimal sample for joint probability analysis. One interpolation scheme uses response functions, or physically based dimensionless scaling laws, that consider the relative impact of hurricane landfall position, central pressure, and storm size on surge magnitude at the location of interest. Here, the influence of regional changes in bathymetry on the physically based response function form is investigated. It will be shown that the influence of continental shelf width on surge generation along a continuous coast is coupled with the influence of storm size and that this coupled physical effect can be treated within the response functions via dimensionless scaling. The surge response function model presented here has an algebraic form for rapid calculation. This model performs well for the entire 600-km Texas coast, yielding accurate surge estimates (root-mean-square errors less than 0.22?m and R 2 correlations better than 0.97) with virtually no bias (mean error magnitudes less than 0.03?m). 相似文献
7.
Hurricane storm surge simulations for Tampa Bay 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Using a high resolution, three-dimensional, primitive equation, finite volume coastal ocean model with flooding and drying
capabilities, supported by a merged bathymetric-topographic data set and driven by prototypical hurricane winds and atmospheric
pressure fields, we investigated the storm surge responses for the Tampa Bay, Florida, vicinity and their sensitivities to
point of landfall, direction and speed of approach, and intensity. All of these factors were found to be important. Flooding
potential by wind stress and atmospheric pressure induced surge is significant for a category 2 hurricane and catastrophic
for a category 4 hurricane. Tide, river, and wave effects are additive, making the potential for flood-induced damage even
greater. Since storm surge sets up as a slope to the sea surface, the highest surge tends to occur over the upper reaches
of the bay, Old Tampa Bay and Hillsborough Bay in particular. For point of landfall sensitivity, the worst case is when the
hurricane center is positioned north of the bay mouth such that the maximum winds associated with the eye wall are at the
bay mouth. Northerly (southerly) approaching storms yield larger (smaller) surges since the winds initially set up (set down)
water level. As a hybrid between the landfall and direction sensitivity experiments, a storm transiting up the bay axis from
southwest to northeast yields the smallest surge, debunking a misconception that this is the worst Tampa Bay flooding case.
Hurricanes with slow (fast) translation speeds yield larger (smaller) surges within Tampa Bay due to the time required to
redistribute mass. 相似文献
8.
Potential impacts of long-term subsidence on the wetlands and evacuation routes in coastal Louisiana
A steady-state subsidence forecast model was developed as a proof of concept to estimate changes in surface elevations of the wetlands and evacuation routes across coastal Louisiana for the years 2015, 2025, 2050, and 2100. Subsidence estimates were derived from an empirical study published by the National Geodetic Survey. Forecasted vertical change was subtracted from current surface elevations. Land and evacuation routes estimated to have surfaces at or below 0 m in elevation, NAVD88, were quantified and classified as vulnerable to inundation hazards. The extent of the coastal zone susceptible to hurricane induced storm surge was also evaluated relative to surge models published by the National Weather Service. The results indicate spatially heterogeneous rates of subsidence that are forecasted to consume nearly 50 % of the existing coastal margin wetlands by 2100. The most significant rate increases are anticipated between 2015 and 2050. Relative to the impact on evacuation routes, subsidence occurring between the 2015 and 2025 forecast years expanded at slower rates when compared to the latter half of the century. Subsidence adjusted storm surge forecasts reveal similar patterns. The methods employed and findings produced demonstrate forecasting capabilities that provide emergency managers and transportation engineers with resources applicable to evacuation modeling, hazard mitigation, environmental sustainability research, costal restoration efforts, and more. 相似文献
9.
Hurricane Katrina storm surge delineation: implications for future storm surge forecasts and warnings 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
The storm surge in coastal Mississippi caused by Hurricane Katrina was unprecedented in the region. The height and geographic
extent of the storm surge came as a surprise to many and exceeded pre-impact surge scenarios based on SLOSH models that were
the basis for emergency preparedness and local land use decision-making. This paper explores the spatial accuracy of three
interpolated storm surge surfaces derived from post-event reconnaissance data by comparing the interpolation results to a
specific SLOSH run. The findings are used to suggest improvements in the calibration of existing pre-event storm surge models
such as SLOSH. Finally, the paper provides some suggestions on an optimal surge forecast map that could enhance the communication
of storm surge risks to the public. 相似文献
10.
A parametric hurricane wind model has been developed based on the asymmetric Holland-type vortex model. The model creates
a two-dimensional surface wind field based on the National Hurricane Center forecast (or observed) hurricane wind and track
data. Three improvements have been made to retain consistency between the input parameters and the model output and to better
resolve the asymmetric structure of the hurricane. First, in determination of the shape parameter B, the Coriolis effect is included and the range restriction is removed. It is found that ignoring the Coriolis effect can
lead to an error greater than 20% in the maximum wind speed for weak but large tropical cyclones. Second, the effect of the
translational velocity of a hurricane is excluded from the input of specified wind speeds before applying the Holland-type
vortex to avoid exaggeration of the wind asymmetry. The translational velocity is added back in at the very end of the procedure.
Third, a new method has been introduced to develop a weighted composite wind field that makes full use of all wind parameters,
not just the largest available specified wind speed and its 4-quadrant radii. An idealized hurricane and two historical Gulf
of Mexico hurricanes have been used to test the model. It is found that the modified parametric model leads to better agreement
with field observation compared with the results from the unmodified model. This will result in better predictions of hurricane
waves and storm surges. 相似文献
11.
Surface accumulations of foam and flotsam as well as sharp salinity, density, turbidity gradients and regions of acoustic scatter were characteristic of ebb-tidal fronts in Charleston Harbor, South Carolina. Surface convergence velocities at these fronts averaged 0.06 m s?1 into the front at an angle of 30° to 60° with respect to the frontal axis, indicating along-front transport during the ebb. These fronts are tidally-induced, forming on the late flood and ebb along the interfaces of water masses. Horizontal and vertical measurements of density revealed that the upper harbor fronts form along the margin of a freshwater lens produced by riverine input. The hypothesis that these frontal zones have higher densities of phytoplankton and zooplankton than adjacent water masses was tested using chlorophylla measurements and net collections. The fronts did not demonstrate any significant accumulations of phytoplankton or zooplankton during the ebb tide. The results of this study suggest that the physical characteristics of ebb-tidal estuarine fronts in Charleston Harbor are periodic in nature and may indirectly affect plankton transport in this coastal plain estuary. 相似文献
12.
由于海洋环境条件的复杂性、多变性及随机性,设计标准的选取是决定工程结构安全度、造价、效益及合理型式的主要因素。传统的设计标准,无法考虑海洋环境条件的随机组合,往往过高估计环境条件设计标准,造成不必要的浪费,甚至使具有开发前景的油田失去开采价值。以实测和后报资料为基础,使用多维联合概率的随机模拟技术,结合不同结构型式的极值响应及不同资料样本的选择方法,提出了海洋工程结构物上的风、浪、流、潮联合荷载及相应的联合概率水平问题,用以作为海洋工程环境荷载设计标准。 相似文献
13.
H. M. Poulos 《Natural Hazards》2010,54(3):1015-1023
Hurricanes are one of the major natural disturbances affecting human livelihoods in coastal zones worldwide. Assessing hurricane
risk is an important step toward mitigating the impact of tropical storms on human life and property. This study uses NOAA’s
historical tropical cyclone database (HURDAT or ‘best-track’), geographic information systems, and kernel smoothing techniques
to generate spatially explicit hurricane risk maps for New England. Southern New England had the highest hurricane risk across
the region for all storm intensities. Long Island, western Connecticut, western Massachusetts, and southern Cape Cod, Martha’s
Vineyard, and Nantucket had high storm probabilities and wind speeds. Results from this study suggest that these locations
may be of central importance for focusing risk amelioration resources along the Long Island and New England coastlines. This
paper presents a simple methodology for hurricane risk assessment that could be applied to other regions where long-term spatial
storm track data exist. 相似文献
14.
The watershed of the Ningxia–Inner Mongolia reach of the Yellow River suffers serious wind erosion hazards and the areas with high wind erosion probabilities need to be identified to help in the building of the correct wind-sand blown hazard protection systems. In this study, the Integrated Wind-Erosion Modelling System model and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data set were used to identify the distributions of threshold wind speeds and wind erosion occurrence probabilities. Through field observations, the relationships among NDVI, vegetation cover, frontal area (lateral cover), roughness length, and threshold friction velocity were obtained. Then, using these relationships, the spatial distributions of threshold wind speeds for wind erosion at a height of 10 m for the different months were mapped. The results show that the threshold wind speed ranged from 7.91 to 35.7 m/s. Based on the threshold wind speed distributions, the wind erosion occurrence probabilities of different months were calculated according to the current wind speed. The results show that the distributions of wind erosion occurrence probabilities and threshold wind speeds were related to each other. The resulting maps of threshold wind speeds and wind erosion occurrence probabilities would help environmental and agricultural researchers in determining some strategies for mitigating or adapting from wind erosion hazards. 相似文献
15.
For consideration of structural design of buildings and infrastructure in Australia, this paper presents hazard modelling and mapping of extreme wind gusts under the current climate and likely future climate change. Statistical and probabilistic approaches are applied to analyse the daily extreme wind gust data recorded between 1939 and 2007 at 545 anemometer stations around Australia. The estimated hazards are compared with the regional design wind speeds specified by the structural design standard, AS/NZS 1170.2:2011. Our results indicate that, under the current climate, structures in the areas on the west of and around Brisbane, Queensland and Newcastle, New South Wales, may be under higher gust hazard than they are designed for. Sensitivity study shows that these areas are also sensitive to the projected synoptic wind intensity changes. When subjected to ±20 % intensity change and ±50 % occurrence frequency change of tropical cyclones, the northwest coast of Western Australia, the northern part of Northern Territory, and the northeast coast between Cairns and Townsville, Queensland, will experience around ±10 m/s changes in extreme wind gust speeds of 500-year return period. 相似文献
16.
On the influence of changes in the drag relation on surface wind speeds and storm surge forecasts 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
In this study it is investigated how uncertainties in the magnitude of the drag coefficient translate into uncertainties in storm surge forecasts in the case of severe weather. A storm surge model is used with wind stress data from a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model, to simulate several recent storms over the North Sea. For a fixed wind speed, the wind stress is linear in the drag coefficient. However, in the NWP model the wind speed is not fixed and increasing the drag in the NWP model results into reduced wind speeds. The results from simulations show that for given increase in the drag coefficient, the weakening of the 10-m wind field reduces the increase in the stress considerably. When the Charnock parameter is increased in the NWP model, the resulting relative changes in the wind stress are almost independent of the wind speed. This is related to the fact that the depth of the surface boundary layer depends on the wind speed. The ratio between relative changes in the wind stress and relative changes in the drag coefficient depends on the wind speed. For 10-m wind speeds larger than 20?m?s?1 the ratio is 0.52; for lower wind speed criteria the ratio is somewhat larger (??0.60). Approximately 36% of the relative change in the drag coefficient translates into a relative change in the surge in stations at the Dutch coast. The relative increase in the storm surge is approximately 68% of the relative increase in the stress. 相似文献
17.
Pensacola Bay, Florida, was in the strong northeast quadrant of Hurricane Ivan when it made landfall on September 16, 2004
as a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. We present data describing the timeline and maximum height of the storm
surge, the extent of flooding of coastal land, and the magnitude of the freshwater inflow pulse that followed the storm. We
computed the magnitude of tidal flushing associated with the surge using a tidal prism model. We also evaluated hurricane
effects on water quality using water quality surveys conducted 20 and 50 d after the storm, which we compared with a survey
14 d before landfall. We evaluated the scale of hurricane effects relative to normal variability using a 5-yr monthly record.
Ivan's 3.5 m storm surge inundated 165 km2 of land, increasing the surface area of Pensacola Bay by 50% and its volume by 230%. The model suggests that 60% of the Bay's
volume was flushed, initially increasing the average salinity of Bay waters from 23 to 30 and lowering nutrient and chlorophylla concentrations. Additional computations suggest that wind forcing was sufficient to completely mix the water column during
the storm. Freshwater discharge from the largest river increased twentyfold during the subsequent 4 d, stimulating a modest
phytoplankton bloom (chlorophyll up to 18 μg l−1) and maintaining hypoxia for several months. Although the immediate physical perturbation was extreme, the water quality
effects that persisted beyond the first several days were within the normal range of variability for this system. In terms
of water quality and phytoplankton productivity effects, this ecosystem appears to be quite resilient in the face of a severe
hurricane effect. 相似文献
18.
Ty V. Wamsley Mary A. Cialone Jane M. Smith Bruce A. Ebersole Alison S. Grzegorzewski 《Natural Hazards》2009,51(1):207-224
The purpose of this investigation was to examine storm surge and wave reduction benefits of different environmental restoration
features (marsh restoration and barrier island changes), as well as the impact of future wetland degradation on local surge
and wave conditions. Storm surge simulations of two representative hurricanes were performed using the ADCIRC storm surge
model with the inclusion of radiation stress gradients from the STWAVE nearshore wave model. Coupled model simulations were
made for a number of landscape configurations that involved both restored and degraded wetland features. The impact of barrier
island condition on hurricane surge and waves was also evaluated. Effects of landscape features were represented by changes
in elevation and frictional resistance. Restoration and degradation of marsh resulted in decreases (for restoration cases)
and increases (for degradation cases) in both surge and waves. The magnitude of change was correlated with the magnitude of
the horizontal extent and elevation changes in the marsh. In general, the wave change patterns are consistent with the water
level changes. Deflation of the Chandeleur Islands (barrier island chain) resulted in slightly increased surge. Results suggest
that coastal marsh does have surge and wave reduction potential. Results also indicate that the impact of the landscape features
is amplified in areas where there are levee “pockets.” Barrier islands and coastal ridges reduce wave heights, even if in
a degraded condition and thus can reduce wave energy in wetland areas, protecting them from erosion. 相似文献
19.
Maricar L. Rabonza Raquel P. Felix Alfredo Mahar Francisco A. Lagmay Rodrigo Narod C. Eco Iris Jill G. Ortiz Dakila T. Aquino 《Landslides》2016,13(1):201-210
Super typhoon Haiyan, considered as one of the most powerful storms recorded in 2013, devastated the central Philippines region on 8 November 2013 with damage amounting to more than USD 2 billion. Hardest hit is the province of Leyte which is located in central Philippines. Rehabilitation of the areas that were devastated requires detailed hazard maps as a basis for well-planned reconstruction. Along with severe wind, storm surge, and flood hazard maps, detailed landslide susceptibility maps for the cities and municipalities of Leyte (7246.7 km2) province are necessary. In order to rapidly assess and delineate areas susceptible to rainfall-induced shallow landslides, Stability INdex MAPping (SINMAP) software was used over a 5-m Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR)-derived digital terrain model (DTM) grid. Topographic, soil strength, and hydrologic parameters were used for each pixel of a given DTM grid to compute for the corresponding factor of safety. The landslide maps generated using SINMAP are highly consistent with the landslide inventory derived from high-resolution satellite imagery from 2002 to 2014 with a detection percentage of 97.5 % and missing factor of 0.025. These demonstrate that SINMAP performs well despite the lack of an extensive geotechnical and hydrological database in the study area. The detailed landslide susceptibility classification is useful to identify safe and unsafe areas for reconstruction and rehabilitation efforts. These maps complement the debris flow and structurally controlled landslide hazard maps that are also being prepared for rebuilding Haiyan’s devastated areas. 相似文献
20.
Alexandros A. Taflanidis Gaofeng Jia Andrew B. Kennedy Jane M. Smith 《Natural Hazards》2013,66(2):955-983
One of the important recent advances in the field of hurricane/storm modelling has been the development of high-fidelity numerical simulation models for reliable and accurate prediction of wave and surge responses. The computational cost associated with these models has simultaneously created an incentive for researchers to investigate surrogate modelling (i.e. metamodeling) and interpolation/regression methodologies to efficiently approximate hurricane/storm responses exploiting existing databases of high-fidelity simulations. Moving least squares (MLS) response surfaces were recently proposed as such an approximation methodology, providing the ability to efficiently describe different responses of interest (such as surge and wave heights) in a large coastal region that may involve thousands of points for which the hurricane impact needs to be estimated. This paper discusses further implementation details and focuses on optimization characteristics of this surrogate modelling approach. The approximation of different response characteristics is considered, and special attention is given to predicting the storm surge for inland locations, for which the possibility of the location remaining dry needs to be additionally addressed. The optimal selection of the basis functions for the response surface and of the parameters of the MLS character of the approximation is discussed in detail, and the impact of the number of high-fidelity simulations informing the surrogate model is also investigated. Different normalizations of the response as well as choices for the objective function for the optimization problem are considered, and their impact on the accuracy of the resultant (under these choices) surrogate model is examined. Details for implementation of the methodology for efficient coastal risk assessment are reviewed, and the influence in the analysis of the model prediction error introduced through the surrogate modelling is discussed. A case study is provided, utilizing a recently developed database of high-fidelity simulations for the Hawaiian Islands. 相似文献