共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 567 毫秒
1.
Sanderson Dylan Kameshwar Sabarethinam Rosenheim Nathanael Cox Daniel 《Natural Hazards》2021,109(2):1821-1847
This paper presents a methodology to deaggregate the results of a multi-hazard damage analysis by extending the traditional multi-hazard damage analysis to consider both population characteristics and independent hazards. The methodology is applied to the joint seismic-tsunami hazard at Seaside, Oregon, considering four infrastructure systems: (1) buildings, (2) transportation network, (3) electric power network and (4) water supply network. Damages to all infrastructure systems are evaluated, and the networked infrastructures are used to inform parcel connectivity to critical facilities. US Census data and a probabilistic housing unit allocation method are implemented to assign detailed household demographic characteristics at the parcel level. Six dimensions of deaggregation are introduced: (1) spatial, (2) hazard type, (3) hazard intensity, (4) infrastructure system, (5) infrastructure component, and (6) housing unit characteristics. The damages, economic losses and risks, and connectivity to critical facilities are deaggregated across these six dimensions. The results show that deaggregated economic loss and risk plots can allow community resilience planners the ability to isolate high-risk events, as well as provide insights into the underlying driving forces. Geospatial representation of the results allows for the identification of both vulnerable buildings and areas within a community and is highlighted by the spatial pattern of parcel disconnection from critical facilities. The incorporation of population characteristics provides an understanding of how hazards disproportionately impact population subgroups and can aide in equitable resilience planning.
相似文献2.
A framework for economic loss estimation due to seismic transportation network disruption: a spatial computable general equilibrium approach 总被引：4，自引：4，他引：0
This paper presents a framework for assessing the economic impact of disruption in transportation that can relate the physical
damage to transportation networks to economic losses. A spatial computable general equilibrium (SCGE) model is formulated
and then integrated with a transportation model that can estimate the traffic volumes of freight and passengers. Economic
equilibrium under a disruption in the transportation network is computed subject to the condition that the adjustment of labor
and capital inputs is restricted; the model reflects slow adjustment of these linked to the state of recovery. As a case study,
the model reviews the large Niigata-Chuetsu earthquake of 2004. Considering the damage to the transportation infrastructure,
the model indicates the extent of the economic losses arising from the earthquake distributed over regions as a consequence
of the intra- and interregional trade in a regional economy. The results show that 20% of the indirect losses occur in the
Niigata region directly affected by the earthquake, whereas 40% of the total losses are experienced in the Kanto region and
non-negligible losses reach rather remote zones of the country such as Okinawa. 相似文献
3.
Zhu Chonghao Zhang Jianjing Liu Yang Ma Donghua Li Mengfang Xiang Bo 《Natural Hazards》2020,101(1):173-194
Communities everywhere are being subjected to a variety of natural hazard events that can result in significant disruption to critical functions. As a result, community resilience assessment in these locations is gaining popularity as a means to help better prepare for, respond to, and recover from potentially disruptive events. The objective of this study was to identify key vulnerabilities relevant to addressing rural community resilience through conducting an initial flood impact analysis, with a specific focus on emergency response and transportation network accessibility. It included a use case involving the flooding of a rural community along the US inland waterway system. Special consideration was given to impacts experienced by at-risk populations (e.g., low economic status, youth, and elderly), given their unique vulnerabilities. An important backdrop to this work is recognition that Federal Emergency Management Agency’s Hazus, a free, publicly available tool, is commonly recommended by the agency for counties, particularly those with limited resources (i.e., rural areas), to use in developing their hazard mitigation plans. The case study results, however, demonstrate that Hazus, as currently utilized, has some serious deficiencies in that it: (1) likely underestimates the flood extent boundaries for study regions in a Level 1 analysis (which solely relies upon filling digital elevation models with precipitation), (2) may be incorrectly predicting the number and location of damaged buildings due to its reliance on out-of-date census data and the assumption that buildings are evenly distributed within a census block, and (3) is incomplete in its reporting of the accessibility of socially vulnerable populations and response capabilities of essential facilities. Therefore, if counties base their flood emergency response plans solely on Hazus results, they are likely to be underprepared for future flood events of significant magnitude. An approach in which Hazus results can be augmented with additional data and analyses is proposed to provide a more risk-informed assessment of community-level flood resilience.
相似文献4.
Salgado-G&#;lvez Mario A. Zuloaga Daniela Henao Sebastian Bernal Gabriel A. Cardona Omar-Dar&#;o 《Natural Hazards》2017,93(1):5-24
A methodology for the development of fully probabilistic seismic risk assessments on water and sewage networks is presented in this paper together with a case study for the system of Manizales, Colombia. These kinds of assessments require the development of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis, the consideration of local site effects, when relevant, the assembly of databases to identify and characterize the exposed elements and the development and assignment of vulnerability models for each type of component. For the case of Manizales, a high-resolution exposure database has been developed (element by element, segment by segment) based on the information and data provided by the owner and operator of the network, Aguas de Manizales. Losses due to earthquakes are obtained after convoluting the hazard and vulnerability inputs in a fully probabilistic manner, using the state-of-the-art methodologies incorporated in the CAPRA risk assessment module. Several risk metrics such as the loss exceedance curve, the loss exceedance probabilities for different time frames and the average annual loss are obtained for the system as a whole as well as disaggregated by component. In addition, repair rates for the pipelines were also calculated. The risk results obtained in this study have been useful for the company in designing and implementing expansion and maintenance plans that explicitly account for seismic risk mitigation issues, as well as to explore and negotiate financial protection alternatives by means of risk transfer and retention schemes, thus becoming a valuable input in the continuous development of good disaster risk management practices in this city.
相似文献5.
Mario A. Salgado-Gálvez Daniela Zuloaga Sebastian Henao Gabriel A. Bernal Omar-Darío Cardona 《Natural Hazards》2018,93(1):5-24
A methodology for the development of fully probabilistic seismic risk assessments on water and sewage networks is presented in this paper together with a case study for the system of Manizales, Colombia. These kinds of assessments require the development of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis, the consideration of local site effects, when relevant, the assembly of databases to identify and characterize the exposed elements and the development and assignment of vulnerability models for each type of component. For the case of Manizales, a high-resolution exposure database has been developed (element by element, segment by segment) based on the information and data provided by the owner and operator of the network, Aguas de Manizales. Losses due to earthquakes are obtained after convoluting the hazard and vulnerability inputs in a fully probabilistic manner, using the state-of-the-art methodologies incorporated in the CAPRA risk assessment module. Several risk metrics such as the loss exceedance curve, the loss exceedance probabilities for different time frames and the average annual loss are obtained for the system as a whole as well as disaggregated by component. In addition, repair rates for the pipelines were also calculated. The risk results obtained in this study have been useful for the company in designing and implementing expansion and maintenance plans that explicitly account for seismic risk mitigation issues, as well as to explore and negotiate financial protection alternatives by means of risk transfer and retention schemes, thus becoming a valuable input in the continuous development of good disaster risk management practices in this city. 相似文献
6.
Roseanna J. Mayfield Peter G. Langdon C. Patrick Doncaster John A. Dearing Rong Wang Gaute Velle Kimberley L. Davies Stephen J. Brooks 《第四纪科学杂志》2021,36(3):360-376
Much is known about how climate change impacts ecosystem richness and turnover, but we have less understanding of its influence on ecosystem structures. Here, we use ecological metrics (beta diversity, compositional disorder and network skewness) to quantify the community structural responses of temperature-sensitive chironomids (Diptera: Chironomidae) during the Late Glacial (14 700–11 700 cal a bp ) and Holocene (11 700 cal a bp to present). Analyses demonstrate high turnover (beta diversity) of chironomid composition across both epochs; however, structural metrics stayed relatively intact. Compositional disorder and skewness show greatest structural change in the Younger Dryas, following the rapid, high-magnitude climate change at the Bølling–Allerød to Younger Dryas transition. There were fewer climate-related structural changes across the early to mid–late Holocene, where climate change was more gradual and lower in magnitude. The reduced impact on structural metrics could be due to greater functional resilience provided by the wider chironomid community, or to the replacement of same functional-type taxa in the network structure. These results provide insight into how future rapid climate change may alter chironomid communities and could suggest that while turnover may remain high under a rapidly warming climate, community structural dynamics retain some resilience. 相似文献
7.
Computerization of Rock Engineering Systems Using Neural Networks with an Expert System 总被引：7，自引：1，他引：6
Summary With the Rock Engineering Systems (RES) methodology, rock mechanics and rock engineering problems are studied systematically
using a total systems approach, incorporating rock mass properties, interrelated parameters, complex interaction mechanisms
and dynamic behavioral modes. In this paper, a method of implementation and computerization of RES is considered, using neural
networks together with an expert system. The computerized RES starts with the data processing of rock mass properties and
boundary conditions and data base management of rock engineering case records. This step is followed by building and operating
parameter interaction matrices with the combined use of backpropagation networks and an expert system. Finally, a simulator
for modelling the dynamic process of rock engineering systems using the Hopfield network is incorporated. With the aid of
neural networks' learning capability and expert system's symbol-reasoning capability, the RES approach is implemented in an
“intelligent” mode. 相似文献
8.
With the accelerating progress of industrialization, urbanization and population growth in recent decades, community resilience, the ability of communities to function effectively and recover successfully in the aftermath of disasters and shocks, has received great attentions. A number of studies had been conducted focusing on community resilience. This article applied community resilience framework to the coastal areas of China, which are the most densely populated and economically developed areas in China with the most frequent marine disasters. City-level social and economic data were used to construct a community resilience index (CRI). Using factor analysis and the global principal component analysis method, 55 city-level indexes were reduced into 15 factors that explain 73.99% of the variance. Getis–Ord G* Statistics were used to depict the high-value clusters and low-value clusters of the CRI. Clearly identified spatial and temporal variations of the CRI showed that both the overall level and regional differences of the CRI increased from 2003 to 2013; the overall spatial agglomeration characteristic of community resilience was not significant. Our findings also highlighted the key elements to improving community resilience: a robust and developed economic system; excellent education programs and training to improve consciousness on disaster prevention and mitigation; adequate investment on critical infrastructure, especially transportation and communication; proper environmental policies to protect ecosystems and water rouses; and extra attention and disaster risk budgets for vulnerable populations. 相似文献
9.
Arif Mohaimin Sadri Satish V. Ukkusuri Seungyoon Lee Rosalee Clawson Daniel Aldrich Megan Sapp Nelson Justin Seipel Daniel Kelly 《Natural Hazards》2018,90(3):1377-1406
The factors that explain the speed of recovery after disaster remain contested. While many have argued that physical infrastructure, social capital, and disaster damage influence the arc of recovery, empirical studies that test these various factors within a unified modeling framework are few. We conducted a mail survey to collect data on household recovery in four small towns in southern Indiana that were hit by deadly tornadoes in March 2012. The recovery effort is ongoing; while many of the homes, businesses, and community facilities were rebuilt in 2013, some are still under construction. We investigate how households in these communities are recovering from damage that they experienced and the role of social capital, personal networks, and assistance from emergency responders on the overall recovery experience. We used an ordered probit modeling framework to test the combined as well as relative effects of (a) damage to physical infrastructures (houses, vehicles, etc.); (b) recovery assistance from emergency responders (FEMA) as well as friends and neighbors; (c) personal network characteristics (size, network density, proximity, length of relationship); (d) social capital (civic engagement, contact with neighbors, trust); and (e) household characteristics. Results show that while households with higher levels of damage experienced slower recovery, those with recovery assistance from neighbors, stronger personal networks, and higher levels of social capital experienced faster recovery. The insights gained in this study will enable emergency managers and disaster response personnel to implement targeted strategies in facilitating post-disaster recovery and community resilience. 相似文献
10.
The worldwide network of container transport services is becoming increasingly diffuse. The different strategies of shipping
lines, the balance of power between shipping lines and shippers and constraints related to inland transportation all have
a potential impact on the development of maritime shipping networks. Moreover, strategic alliances between the port and the
shipping industry, which have both been driven by strong concentration processes and vertical integration, have a profound
influence on the maritime network structure and also on the grade of integration of a region in the global maritime transport
network. This paper seeks to understand the evolution of maritime networks in and between two differently developed regions.
The focus is on the trade route and networks between the West Coast of South America and Northern Europe. The paper analyses
the network structures and the behaviour of shipping lines in different economic contexts and port systems. Current and historical
developments in the two regions under study have led to their relative position within the global maritime network and illustrate
the potential implications of being peripheral or central in this network. The empirical results are compared with known strategies
of shipping lines. The authors aim to answer the question of how far the configuration of hinterlands determines calling patterns
and if strategic alliances and vertical integration reduce footloose behaviour of shipping lines. Further, we discuss how
far, under the current configuration, shipping lines influence port development, and also the reverse situation of how far
port accessibility and performance influence maritime network developments. The two region approach provides insights on the
constraining factors of maritime network development between two differently developed regions and the associated implications
for trade development. 相似文献
11.
Tracy L. Kijewski-Correa Andrew B. Kennedy Alexandros A. Taflanidis David O. Prevatt 《Natural Hazards》2018,93(2):627-659
The old potable water network in Byblos city is provided mainly from Ibrahim River nearby. Located in a seismic region, the aging network needs to tolerate seismic threats; thus, damage to the potable water network needs to be assessed. Therefore, first, enhancing infrastructure resilience is briefly discussed, noting briefly the need to bridge specifically between heritage risk management and engineering. Second, Byblos potable water network, seismicity, and geology are detailed. Third, the potable water network damage assessment methodology is presented. It encompasses hazard assessment, network inventory, damage functions, and model development. Data and maps are prepared using the Geographic Information System and then modeled in Ergo platform to obtain the damage to buried pipelines in the event of likely earthquake scenarios. Ergo is updated to consider recommended ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) for the Middle East region, to consider amplification of the peak ground velocity in hazard maps due to different soil types, and to consider adequate fragility functions. Moreover, different Byblos geotechnical maps, landslide hazard, and liquefaction are investigated and embedded. Damage results to pipelines are dependent on the hazard maps obtained using different GMPEs and geotechnical maps. Asbestos cement pipelines will be most damaged, followed by polyethylene and then by ductile iron. Finally, recommendations are offered to consider an improved sustainable rehabilitation solution. The study provides a better understanding of Byblos potable water network and allows the establishment of a sustainable and resilience-to-earthquake preparedness strategy and recovery plan. 相似文献
12.
The protection of critical infrastructure from natural and intentional events is a key component of any national security agenda. Protection schemes need to be readily identifiable and adaptable to complex changing environments. In this paper, we identify strategic geographic characteristics that impact the location of detection resources (e.g. sensors) towards the defense of regional critical infrastructure. Specifically, we seek to estimate the relationship between the results of a variation of the traditional shortest path network interdiction problem and geographical characteristics of the transportation infrastructure and the urban environment. Experiments conducted on three distinct transportation networks of different shapes and granularities (New York City—grid, Houston—radial, Boston—hybrid) underline the importance of geographic characteristics such as the proximity to resource location, attacker entry points as well as network coverage. Insights gained from this work are relevant to policy and decision makers to facilitate the development of analytical and decision-support tools capable of identifying resource allocation strategies. We discuss a heuristic-based framework that prioritizes the selection of detection resources, reflecting the importance of geographic characteristics. The findings underline the importance of geographical characteristics for the allocation of resources in a regional setting. 相似文献
13.
Dragos Toma-Danila 《Natural Hazards》2018,93(1):97-111
Through this paper we propose and test a GIS framework that addresses the issue of seismic risk due to urban road network failure. The approach relies on full GIS integration, on Monte Carlo simulations for generating potentially disrupted network configurations, considering also the damage probability due to direct earthquake implications, and on traffic considerations (both in typical and post-earthquake situations). The damage probability can be obtained using fragility functions for critical structures like bridges and tunnels or by determining empirically the possibility of affected buildings to generate debris leading to road obstruction. Multiple performance indicators such as travel time and distance under various conditions are combined, in order to quantify the risks inflicted by dysfunctionalities in the emergency intervention process. The framework considers at the same time temporal and spatial dimensions, being able to cope with traffic dynamics or reconfigurable network configurations. The ArcGIS Network Analyst Module is used for model integration, and full city scale analysis is performed in order to test the capabilities. Bucharest (capital of Romania) is selected for the case study; this 2 million inhabitant city is one of the most endangered in Europe, due to earthquakes that occur in the Vrancea Area, at intermediate depth, with moment magnitudes > 7, but also due to the vulnerable building stock. Beside this, it is one of Europe’s top cities when it comes to traffic congestion. The results of the study provide initial insights on the deficiencies of the city’s road network and connectivity limitations, showing the high impact of road obstructions and traffic congestion on intervention times, for ambulances and firefighters, in case of an earthquake. 相似文献
14.
Hazard research has made significant strides over the last several decades, answering critical questions surrounding vulnerability and recovery. Recently, resilience has come to the forefront of scholarly debates and practitioner strategies, yet there remain challenges implementing resilience in practice, the result of a complex web of research that spread across numerous fields of study. As a result, there is a need to analyze and reflect on the current state of resilience literature. We reviewed 241 journal articles from the Web of Science and Engineering Village databases from 1990 to 2015 to analyze research trends in geographic location of studies, methods employed, units of analysis, and resilience dimensions studied, as well as correlations between each of these categories. The majority of the studies analyzed were conducted in North America, used quantitative methods, focused on infrastructure and community units of analysis, and studied governance, infrastructure, and economic dimensions of resilience. This analysis points to the need to: (1) conduct studies in developing country contexts, where resilience is particularly important; (2) employ mixed-methods for additional depth to quantitative studies; (3) connect units of analysis, such as infrastructure and community; and (4) expand on the measurement and study of environmental and social dimensions of resilience. 相似文献
15.
Exploring the structure of the U.S. intercity passenger air transportation network: a weighted complex network approach 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
The U.S. airline network is one of the most advanced transportation infrastructures in the world. It is a complex geospatial
structure that sustains a variety of dynamics including commercial, public, and military operations and services. We study
the U.S. domestic intercity passenger air transportation network using a weighted complex network methodology, in which vertices
represent cities and edges represent intercity airline connections weighted by average daily passenger traffic, non-stop distance,
and average one-way fares. We find that U.S. intercity passenger air transportation network is a small-world network accompanied
by dissortative mixing patterns and rich-club phenomenon, implying that large degree cities (or hub cities) tend to form high
traffic volume interconnections among each other and large degree cities tend to link to a large number of small degree cities.
The interhub air connections tend to form interconnected triplets with high traffic volumes, long non-stop distances, and
low average one-way fares. The structure of the U.S. airline network reflects the dynamic integration of pre-existing urban
and national transportation infrastructure with the competitive business strategies of commercial airlines. In this paper
we apply an emerging methodology to representing, analyzing, and modeling the complex interactions associated with the physical
and human elements of the important U.S. national air transport and services infrastructure. 相似文献
16.
Resilience to natural hazards: a geographic perspective 总被引：8，自引：7，他引：1
Resilience is increasingly used as an approach for understanding the dynamics of natural disaster systems. This article presents the origin of resilience and provides an overview of its development to date, which draws on the wide literature on ecological science, social science, social–environmental system and natural hazards. From a geographic perspective, the model of disaster resilience of “Loss–Response” of Location (DRLRL) was created and disaster resilience was defined from three dimensional mode, which focused on the spatial, temporal scale of resilience and attributes of hazard-affected bodies. A geographic approach was put forward to measure the disaster resilience, including two properties of inherent resilience and adaptive resilience and a case study was implemented in order to validate this approach. This perspective would offer greater potential in application of resilience concept, especially in the process of integrated risk management and disaster recovery. 相似文献
17.
There is growing interest in the use of back‐propagation neural networks to model non‐linear multivariate problems in geotehnical engineering. To overcome the shortcomings of the conventional back‐propagation neural network, such as overfitting, where the neural network learns the spurious details and noise in the training examples, a hybrid back‐propagation algorithm has been developed. The method utilizes the genetic algorithms search technique and the Bayesian neural network methodology. The genetic algorithms enhance the stochastic search to locate the global minima for the neural network model. The Bayesian inference procedures essentially provide better generalization and a statistical approach to deal with data uncertainty in comparison with the conventional back‐propagation. The uncertainty of data can be indicated using error bars. Two examples are presented to demonstrate the convergence and generalization capabilities of this hybrid algorithm. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
18.
Der Sarkissian Rita Abdallah Chadi Zaninetti Jean-Marc Najem Sara 《Natural Hazards》2020,103(1):121-137
Natural Hazards - Estimating the resilience of a road network (one of the essential critical infrastructures in times of crisis) to natural hazards is crucial in achieving the goals of disaster... 相似文献
19.
An artificial neural network is designed as an improved alternative approach to the conventional type-curve matching technique for the determination of unconfined aquifer parameters. The network is implemented in a six-step protocol consisted of input selection, data splitting, design of network architecture, determination of network structure, network training, and network validation. The network is trained for the well function of unconfined aquifers by the back-propagation technique, adopting the Levenberg-Marquardt optimization algorithm. By applying a principal component analysis (PCA) on the training input data and through a trial-and-error procedure, the structure of the network is optimized with the topology of (3 × 6 × 3). The replicative, predictive, and structural validity of the developed network are evaluated with synthetic and real field data. The network eliminates graphical error inherent in the type-curve matching technique and provides an automatic and fast procedure for aquifer parameter estimation, particularly when analyzing many alternative pumping tests routinely obtained from continuous data loggers/data collection systems. 相似文献
20.
The occurrence of rockfall incidents on the transportation network may cause injuries, and even casualties, as well as severe damage to infrastructure such as dwellings, railways, road corridors, etc. Passive protective measures (i.e., rockfall barriers, wire nets, etc.) are mainly deployed by operators of ground transport networks to minimize the impact of detrimental effects on these networks. In conjunction with these passive measures, active rockfall monitoring should ideally include the magnitude of each rockfall, its initial and final position, and the triggering mechanism that might have caused its detachment from the slope. In this work, the operational principle of a low-cost rockfall monitoring and alerting system is being presented. The system integrates measurements from a multi-channel seismograph and commercial cameras as the primary equipment for event detection. A series of algorithms analyze these measurements independently in order to reduce alarms originated by surrounding noise and sources other than rockfall events. The detection methodology employs two different sets of algorithms: Time–frequency analyses of the rockfall event’s seismic signature are performed using moving window pattern recognition algorithms, whereas image processing techniques are utilized to deliver object detection and localization. Training and validation of the proposed approach was performed through field tests that involved manually induced rockfall events and recording of sources (i.e., passing car, walking people) that may cause a false alarm. These validation tests revealed that the seismic monitoring algorithms produce a 4.17 % false alarm rate with an accuracy of 93 %. Finally, the results of a 34-day operational monitoring period are presented and the ability of the imaging system to identify and exclude false alarms is discussed. The entire processing cycle is 10–15 s. Thus, it can be considered as a near real-time system for early warning of rockfall events. 相似文献