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1.
The trigger for the study presented in this paper was the extreme rain event of 1 November 2015 in Algarve region. The main objective was the analysis and improvement of the precipitation field using a radar–rain gauge merging method. Ordinary kriging with radar-based error correction has been applied to hourly values of precipitation from both sensors. The merging technique allowed keeping the better radar spatial pattern, being the respective estimates corrected by the rain gauges observations. The procedure led to a reduction in the errors of the precipitation estimates, evaluated by cross-validation, when compared to univariate interpolation of rain gauge observation or radar rain product. Finally, some discussion is also added on the problematic of flooding in urban areas, especially those with absent or deficient urban planning.
相似文献2.
Objective analysis of daily rainfall at the resolution of 1° grid for the Indian monsoon region has been carried out merging
dense land rainfall observations and INSAT derived precipitation estimates. This daily analysis, being based on high dense
rain gauge observations was found to be very realistic and able to reproduce detailed features of Indian summer monsoon. The
inter-comparison with the observations suggests that the new analysis could distinctly capture characteristic features of
the summer monsoon such as north-south oriented belt of heavy rainfall along the Western Ghats with sharp gradient of rainfall
between the west coast heavy rain region and the rain shadow region to the east, pockets of heavy rainfall along the location
of monsoon trough/low, over the east central parts of the country, over north-east India, along the foothills of Himalayas
and over the north Bay of Bengal. When this product was used to assess the quality of other available standard climate products
(CMAP and ECMWF reanalysis) at the gird resolution of 2.5°, it was found that the orographic heavy rainfall along Western
Ghats of India was poorly identified by them. However, the GPCC analysis (gauge only) at the resolution of 1° grid closely
discerns the new analysis. This suggests that there is a need for a higher resolution analysis with adequate rain gauge observations
to retain important aspects of the summer monsoon over India. The case studies illustrated show that the daily analysis is
able to capture large-scale as well as mesoscale features of monsoon precipitation systems. This study with data of two seasons
(2001 and 2003) has shown sufficiently promising results for operational application, particularly for the validation of NWP
models. 相似文献
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多源降水融合是精准估计降水时空分布的重要途径, 多聚焦降水量或降水强度的误差订正, 对短历时降水雨区辨识的重视不足。提出考虑有雨无雨辨识的多源降水融合框架, 耦合地理加权逻辑回归与地理加权回归模型, 构建兼顾雨区辨识及雨量估计的降水融合方法, 并应用于汉江流域MSWEP V2.1与地面站网观测日降水融合。结果表明: 所提方法成功再现有雨无雨空间格局并刻画了降水中心, 整体强化了MSWEP V2.1对地面降水的表征能力, 降低误报率和误报降水量的幅度超过了60%, 提高临界成功指数和Kling-Gupta效率系数达40%以上; 较降水空间插值数据, 削减误报降水量并提升Kling-Gupta效率系数高于10%;另外, 较参考数据, 降水融合改善强降水事件(雨强≥50 mm/d)分辨精度的增益不低于60%。所提方法有效改善了降水估计效果, 为多源降水融合提供了新思路。 相似文献
5.
定量反演降水及其在青藏高原东北边缘地区面雨量估算中的应用 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
雷达-雨量计联合校准降水结合了雷达区域覆盖和雨量计单点精度高的优势, 利用雷达进行区域降水量估计是提高雷达应用能力的重要方向之一. 通过利用在青藏高原东北边坡地区的雷达回波-降水反演关系式, 对2012年5月10日的这一地区的一次区域性强降水过程进行反演比较, 并利用平均校准法、 最优插值法和用卡尔曼滤波确定变分系数的变分-卡尔曼滤波进行空间校准. 结果表明:利用最优化法得到的本地降水反演关系式效果要明显优于其他波段或地域的固有关系式, 可以有效改变过低估计的状况; 变分-卡尔曼滤波由于考虑了雷达区域扫描的优势, 校准效果最好, 可以细致反映空间降水分布, 对降水预报、 地质灾害预警等都有重要意义.通过建立多仰角多变量的降水关系式, 并进一步对反演结果采用有效的数学校正法可能会对空间面雨量估测取得更好的效果. 相似文献
6.
Monitoring of extreme events requires accurate measurement of rainfall intensities and merging weather radar data with ground information is a very common technique used to obtain the required precision. In order to do this, several methods exist but very few open source implementations are available. CondMerg is the first open source software developed in R language implementing the conditional merging method and some other experimental variants based on it. It is a cross-platform software, easily adaptable to different needs, optimized for batch processing of multiple events but also usable in near real time applications. For its execution it requires two inputs: a CSV file with rain gauges measurements and a geo-referred TIF file with weather radar quantitative precipitation estimations; main outputs are TIF files with merged observations although the code also returns information about cross-validation, with scatter plots and indexes. All TIF files are ready to be managed by common GIS software for easy visualization and analysis. Use of the program is very simple: execution can be interactive or non-interactive and, in both cases, it just requires to set some parameters at the beginning of the program and run it. The code has been tested on different extreme rain events occurred in the Piedmont region (northwestern Italy) showing improved accuracy of reconstructed rainfall fields. 相似文献
7.
BRIJESH KUMAR KANHU CHARAN PATRA VENKAT LAKSHMI 《Journal of Earth System Science》2016,125(5):919-934
Satellite precipitation products offer an opportunity to evaluate extreme events (flood and drought) for areas where rainfall data are not available or rain gauge stations are sparse. In this study, daily precipitation amount and frequency of TRMM 3B42V.7 and CMORPH products have been validated against daily rain gauge precipitation for the monsoon months (June–September or JJAS) from 2005–2010 in the trans-boundary Gandak River basin. The analysis shows that the both TRMM and CMORPH can detect rain and no-rain events, but they fail to capture the intensity of rainfall. 相似文献
8.
Precipitation is a key input variable for hydrological and climate studies. Rain gauges can provide reliable precipitation measurements at a point of observations. However, the uncertainty of rain measurements increases when a rain gauge network is sparse. Satellite-based precipitation estimations SPEs appear to be an alternative source of measurements for regions with limited rain gauges. However, the systematic bias from satellite precipitation estimation should be estimated and adjusted. In this study, a method of removing the bias from the precipitation estimation from remotely sensed information using artificial neural networks-cloud classification system (PERSIANN-CCS) over a region where the rain gauge is sparse is investigated. The method consists of monthly empirical quantile mapping of gauge and satellite measurements over several climate zones as well as inverse-weighted distance for the interpolation of gauge measurements. Seven years (2010–2016) of daily precipitation estimation from PERSIANN-CCS was used to test and adjust the bias of estimation over Saudi Arabia. The first 6 years (2010–2015) are used for calibration, while 1 year (2016) is used for validation. The results show that the mean yearly bias is reduced by 90%, and the yearly root mean square error is reduced by 68% during the validation year. The experimental results confirm that the proposed method can effectively adjust the bias of satellite-based precipitation estimations. 相似文献
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风场变形误差是降水观测误差最主要的来源之一,其不仅影响观测值的准确性,也可能导致长期降水变化趋势中隐含虚假成分。结合北京地区20个气象站点1976-2015年逐日观测资料及前人研究成果,评估了风场变形误差对降水记录及其长期变化趋势的影响,结果表明:①近40年来北京地区平均降水捕获率为90%~95%,上升趋势较明显,但空间分布不均匀。城市化进程导致的风速减小是近10年来北京城、乡降水捕获率差异加大的主要原因。②北京地区风场变形误差存在明显的年际及季节差异。近40年来年均降水量订正值为23.1 mm,观测值较实际降水量年均低估了4.0%。订正后年均降水强度从实测的7.9 mm/d增加到8.3 mm/d,年降水量的下降速率从34.4 mm/10 a变为37.0 mm/10 a,观测值将降水强度低估了约4.8%,且将降水量的下降趋势低估了约7.0%。③对于强度越大的降水过程,风场变形引起的观测误差也越明显。对比发现,城市站点的风场变形误差年际振幅要大于乡村站点,弱降水过程中乡村站点的低估比城市站点明显,对大雨及以上强降水过程则相反,城市站点的低估比乡村站更显著。 相似文献
11.
Typhoon Aere swept over Taiwan with heavy rain, which induced huge discharge in the Danshuei River in August 2004. The flood
in the Danshuei River intruded Sanchung through a culvert that was under construction. The deluge inundated thousands of premises
and resulted in severe damage. This study reconstructs the event scenario using hydrologic and hydraulic methods to analyse
the causes of the disaster. We integrated the radar rainfall estimations and rain gauge observations to recreate the temporal
and spatial varied precipitation inputs; estimated the influent volume from the culvert using hydrologic equations; and simulated
the flood dynamic within the study area during the event with a coupled overland and sewer flow model. The evidence showed
that both the rainfall and the culvert flow contributed similar flood volume to the study area, but culvert discharge concentrated
at single location within short time period such that the local drainage system could not cope with and notable damage was
incurred. 相似文献
12.
青藏高原北麓河地区降水量观测与对比分析 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
根据2011年11月至2012年9月通过Thies激光雨滴谱仪、 T-200B雨雪量计和TE525翻斗式雨量筒获取的青藏高原北麓河地区降水量数据, 按3个时间段分别对3种仪器记录的降水量行了对比分析. 结果表明: 激光雨滴谱仪获取的固态降水量与经Jimmy校正公式修正后的T-200B降水量极为接近. 但在测量雨夹雪时, 激光雨滴谱仪对降水类型、 颗粒直径的误判造成了获取的降水量远高于T-200B雨量筒. 而3种仪器获取的液态降水量有很好的一致性. 但是, 当小时降雨量在2 mm以上时, 激光雨滴谱仪获取的降雨量比T-200B和TE525雨量筒小20%左右. 同时, 在风吹雪对激光雨滴谱仪的影响方面做了相关的分析研究, 初步认为风吹雪的颗粒直径主要集中在0.5 mm以下. 相似文献
13.
采用地面雨量站点观测降水作为基准数据,评估热带降雨观测计划（TRMM）最新一代卫星降水产品3B42V7的精度;利用站点和卫星两种降水数据驱动栅格新安江模型,采用SCEM-UA算法考虑模型参数不确定性,进行流量过程模拟,评估TRMM 3B42V7在流域水文模拟和预报中的应用能力。数据精度评估显示:在平均意义上,TRMM 3B42V7日降水精度较高,较站点观测低估了6.68%;但在绝对值意义上,TRMM 3B42V7日降水精度较低,绝对偏差达到57.76%;TRMM 3B42V7经过了地面月降水量偏差校准,其精度在月尺度上有较大提高。径流模拟结果表明:TRMM 3B42V7模拟的日径流过程精度较低,有部分洪峰没有捕捉到,但仍能表征径流的日变化特征;月尺度上模拟径流与实测径流吻合较好,能表征径流的季节性和年内变化特征;计算的日尺度和月尺度95%置信区间包含大部分实测流量过程。 相似文献
14.
阐明TRMM 3B42V6（Tropical rainfall measuring mission 3B42 version 6）的误差特征及成因,对于合理使用该卫星降水数据,并完善其降水反演算法具有重要意义。在赣江流域0.25°×0.25°空间尺度上,对比了TRMM 3B42V6、TRMM 3B42RTV6和CMORPH的精度特征。结果表明,3B42V6的系统偏差远低于3B42RTV6、CMORPH,但平均绝对值偏差、效率系数和探测率均明显劣于CMORPH。TRMM 3B42V6的系统偏差较低的原因主要在于该数据采用地面月降水量进行了校准,而其绝对值偏差、效率系数和探测率明显劣于CMORPH的主要原因在于所采用的热红外/被动微波降水联合反演算法不及后者有效。今后有必要对TRMM 3B42的精度进行全面评估,并改进该数据的热红外/微波降水反演算法及与地面降水信息的融合算法。 相似文献
15.
Guleid Artan Hussein Gadain Jodie L. Smith Kwabena Asante Christina J. Bandaragoda James P. Verdin 《Natural Hazards》2007,43(2):167-185
Floods are the most common and widespread climate-related hazard on Earth. Flood forecasting can reduce the death toll associated
with floods. Satellites offer effective and economical means for calculating areal rainfall estimates in sparsely gauged regions.
However, satellite-based rainfall estimates have had limited use in flood forecasting and hydrologic stream flow modeling
because the rainfall estimates were considered to be unreliable. In this study we present the calibration and validation results
from a spatially distributed hydrologic model driven by daily satellite-based estimates of rainfall for sub-basins of the
Nile and Mekong Rivers. The results demonstrate the usefulness of remotely sensed precipitation data for hydrologic modeling
when the hydrologic model is calibrated with such data. However, the remotely sensed rainfall estimates cannot be used confidently
with hydrologic models that are calibrated with rain gauge measured rainfall, unless the model is recalibrated.
G. Artan, J. L. Smith and K. Asante – work performed under USGS contract 03CRCN0001. 相似文献
16.
Helmi Saidi Marzia Ciampittiello Claudia Dresti Laura Turconi 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2014,72(11):4607-4616
With regard to extreme events, it is well documented that an intensity of about 1 mm/min already represents an extreme intensity. Under alpine conditions, a precipitation event with an intensity of 3 mm/min has occurred. Therefore, the rain gauges in this region have to be able to measure in this and even in higher intensity ranges. This study deals with basic automated tipping-bucket rain (TBR) gauge and Bulk precipitation samplers, which are able to hold more than 95 % of the cumulative rainfall, that are verified within the space of the week without losses during the extreme events and with minimal evaporation loss. Bulk samplers collected more rainfall than TBR gauges in 110 of 221 extreme events analysed over the past 10 years. In 17 extreme events, an underestimation greater than 10 % was evaluated. The objective was to single out the counting errors associated with TBR gauge, during extreme events, so as to help the understanding of the measured differences between instruments in the field. We want to determine whether the automated precipitation gauge can provide a reliable and precise measurement of precipitation with particular interest regarding heavy and extreme events. 相似文献
17.
Syed Muhammad Zubair Younis Muhammad Majid Ahmad Ammar 《Arabian Journal of Geosciences》2017,10(18):404
The impacts of floods and droughts are intensified by climate change, lack of preparedness, and coordination. The average rainfall in study area is ranging from 200 to 400 mm per year. Rain gauge generally provides very accurate measurement of point rain rates and the amounts of rainfall but due to scarcity of the gauge locations provides very general information of the area on regional scale. Recognizing these practical limitations, it is essential to use remote sensing techniques for measuring the quantity of rainfall in the Middle Indus. In this research, Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) estimation can be used as a proxy for the magnitude of rainfall estimates from classical methods (rain gauge), quantity, and its spatial distribution for Middle Indus river basin. In order to use TRMM satellite data for discharge measurement, its accuracy is determined by statistically comparing it with in situ gauged data on daily and monthly bases. The daily R 2 value (0.42) is significantly lower than monthly R 2 value (0.82), probably due to the time of summation of TRMM 3-hourly precipitation data into daily estimates. Daily TRMM data from 2003 to 2012 was used as input forcing in Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model along with other input parameters. The calibration and validation results of SWAT model give R 2 = 0.72 and 0.73 and Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient of efficiency = 0.69 and 0.65, respectively. Daily and monthly comparison graphs are generated on the basis of model discharge output and observed data. 相似文献
18.
TRMM降水资料在青藏高原的适用性分析 总被引：11，自引：4，他引：7
利用32个观测台站降水资料,在江河源区以均方根误差(Nrmse)、相对误差(BIAS)和相关系数等指标对TRMM降水数据精度进行了评估。结果表明,TRMM降水数据有较好的适用性,与观测数据相比误差在偏负10%以内,在月时间尺度上两者相关系数达到0.9以上。把TRMM数据应用到整个青藏高原,给出了整个高原1998～2009年降水的年均、季均、月均空间分布。降水从东南向西北逐渐递减,东南部年降水量达到1000mm/a,而西北部仅为200mm/a左右,特别是北缘低于100mm/a;降水主要集中在5～9月,冬季降水很少。 相似文献
19.
使用GBPP-100型雨滴谱仪,于2001年6月12日至7月31日在天山北坡的小渠子气象站和牧业气象试验站,对27次降雨过程进行了雨滴谱观测,共获取了4 719个雨滴谱样本。通过观测资料分析新疆中天山山区积状云、层状云、积状-层状混合云降雨的微物理结构特征。观测分析表明,天山山区降雨雨滴的平均直径0.41~0.55 mm,以积状云最大,混合云次之,层状云最小。最大平均直径0.88~1.12 mm、平均雨强1.18~2.78 mm·h-1、平均含水量5.23~11.62 g·m-3,混合云的这三个特征量均为最大。三类云的雨强与数密度呈正相关。积状云、层状云降雨的雨滴谱服从M-P分布,混合云服从Γ分布。由于山区地形的作用,使云中降雨粒子的生长时间受到限制,天山山区降雨小滴浓度高、尺度小,人工降雨潜力大。 相似文献
20.
A geostatistical approach based on ordinary kriging is presented for the evaluation and the augmentation of an existing rain gauge network. The evaluation is based on estimating the percentage of the area that achieves a targeted level of acceptable accuracy. The variances of kriging estimation erros at un-gauged locations were assumed to be normally distributed. Kriging estimation erros with a probability that equals to or exceeds a given threshold value of acceptance probability were assumed to have satisfactory accuracies. The percentage of the area that achieved the targeted probability of acceptance is delineated and used to judge the overall performance of the existing rain gauge network. A study area in northern Oman located in Sohar governorate is selected as the pilot case. The area has 34 rain gauges and it is characterized by a terrain surface that varies from coastal plain to mountains. For a threshold value of 0.85, and 0.90 of acceptance probability, the existing network achieved area of acceptable probability of 88.71 and 77.72 %, respectively. For a success criterion of 80 %, the existing rain gauge network indicated acceptable performance for acceptance probability threshold of 0.85 and inadequate performance is noticed in the case of probability threshold of 0.90, which necessitated further network augmentation. A sequential algorithm for ranking and prioritization of the existing rain gauges is used to classify the existing rain gauges into base and non-base rain gauges. The base rain gauge network for mean annual rainfall comprised about 29 of the existing rain gauges. The identified non-base rain gauges were sequentially relocated to achieve higher levels of percentage of area with acceptable accuracy. The percentage of area with acceptable accuracy increased from 88.71 % for the original rain gauge network to about 94.51 % for the augmented network by adding four rain gages at probability acceptance threshold of 0.85. It also increased from 77.72 % for the existing network to 90.50 % for the augmented rain gauge network at acceptance threshold of 0.9. 相似文献