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1.
基于MCMC法的非饱和土渗流参数随机反分析 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
基于贝叶斯理论,以马尔可夫链蒙特卡罗方法（Markov chain Monte Carlo Simulation, MCMC法）的自适应差分演化Metropolis算法为参数后验分布抽样计算方法,建立利用时变测试数据的参数随机反分析及模型预测方法。以香港东涌某天然坡地降雨入渗测试为算例,采用自适应差分演化Metropolis算法对时变降雨条件下非饱和土一维渗流模型参数进行随机反分析,研究参数后验分布的统计特性,并分别对校准期和验证期内模型预测孔压和实测值进行比较。研究结果表明,DREAM算法得到的各随机变量后验分布标准差较先验分布均显著减小;经过实测孔压数据的校准,模型计算精度很高,校准期内95%总置信区间的覆盖率达到0.964;验证期第2～4个阶段95%总置信区间的覆盖率分别为0.52、0.79和0.79,模型预测结果与实测值吻合程度较高。 相似文献
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傍河水源地地下水水流数值模拟的不确定性 总被引：7，自引：1，他引：6
按客观随机性与主观不确定性,对傍河水源地地下水水流数值模拟中的不确定性影响因素进行了详细分析,在此基础上,提出了处理地下水系统中随机不确定性的方法改进一次二阶矩法,并将其应用于傍河水源地地下水可开采量的可靠性分析中.评价结果得出:考虑参数的随机不确定性因素后,水源地以4.7×104 m3/d进行开采时发生地下水超采的风险率为19.31%. 相似文献
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陈官庄水源地地下水资源开采主要针对中深层地下水,赋存于新近系上新统冲湖积层中,埋深在80~200 m,岩性以细砂、中细砂为主,次为粉砂,砂层分布较连续稳定,富水性较好。水源地开采后,将形成一个降落漏斗,根据计算,在现状条件下,水源地开采后不会造成水源枯竭及水井报废;水源地投产后,在合理开采的情况下,地下水的水质类型将不会发生太大变化;水源地中深层地下水的开采不会影响浅层地下水;在开采降落漏斗范围内,应对其地面沉降进行监测;水源地不存在压矿问题和采煤引起地面塌陷环境地质问题;提出了水源地保护及监测措施。 相似文献
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平原缺水区隐伏岩溶水的供水意义——以通州区龙旺庄隐伏灰岩水源地的勘查运行为例 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
本文以通州区龙旺庄隐伏灰岩水源地的勘查及运行情况为例,提出以隐伏基岩地下水作为应惠水源来科学、适度地开采是具有一定现实意义的;像龙旺庄这种消耗性水源地,开采条件下补给量的增量(激发补给量)也不容忽视。 相似文献
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郑州北郊地下水源地傍河取水对区域环境的影响分析 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
郑州北郊水源地为大型傍河型地下水源地，随着地下水的开采，伴随着地下水位的下降，降落漏斗的形成，将给水源地附近区域环境带来一系列的影响。本文对水源地投入运行后，可能对区域环境带来的影响进行了几方面的分析。 相似文献
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河北省廊坊市拟建新水源地供水工程环境影响分析及环境保护措施 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
《地下水》1998,(3)
开采深部地下水资源所引起的环境问题,其影响因素众多、原因复杂。对开采深部地下水水源地建设的可行性论证以及水源地开采对环境的影响评价应采取系统分析、评价的原则。本文从这一观点出发,对廊坊市拟建新水源地供水工程进行了环境影响分析,并提出了相应的环境保护措施。 相似文献
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在野外实验基地进行的含氮污水灌溉实验工作基础上,分析了污灌过程中氮化合物在土壤及地下水中迁移转化规律.研究结果表明,污灌对下层土壤及地下水中NH4+浓度影响较小,但对NO3-浓度影响较大,尤其是长期进行污灌的土壤,易造成地下水中NO3-污染.利用本文推导的数学模型,可以定量预测污水灌溉后土壤水及地下水中NH4+、NO3-浓度的时空变化.采用Monte-Carlo法,进行含氮污水灌溉污染风险分析,结果表明,进入地下水的NO3--N最大浓度超过污灌水NO3--N浓度0.76倍的可能性为25%、超过污灌水NO3--N浓度0.43倍的可能性为75%,污灌造成的地下水NO3-污染风险必须引起注意. 相似文献
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针对确定性模型难以描述含水层非均质空间分布的问题,提出基于随机理论的地下水环境风险评价方法。以矩形场地地下水污染风险评价为例,采用蒙特卡罗法生成大量渗透系数随机场,模拟含水层参数各种可能的非均质空间分布,在此基础上建立场地地下水流模型与溶质运移模型,分别计算污染物在地下水中的迁移转化情况。统计大量随机模拟中污染事故发生的频率,当模拟次数足够多时,污染频率收敛于污染概率,污染风险即通过污染概率体现出来。该方法将模型参数设为满足一定分布特征的随机变量,避免了确定性方法得出的武断的评价结果,可为工厂的选址、水源地的选址等工作提供科学指导。 相似文献
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基于多元回归分析的铬污染地下水风险评价方法 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
土-水分配系数（Kd）是表征重金属污染物在土壤包气带中迁移能力的重要参数,受污染物质量浓度、pH值、有机质质量分数、铁铝氧化物质量分数等多种因素影响。本文通过实验研究了分配系数与各种影响因素之间的关系,基于多元回归分析方法得到了分配系数与影响因素的关系方程;并以分配系数、泄漏量、土壤孔隙度、初始含水率为风险因子建立了地下水污染风险评价方法。以某工厂铬废液的泄露为案例,采用构建的方法进行地下水污染风险评价。结果表明：该处地下水被污染的风险等级为中等。地下水污染风险评价方法的建立为重金属污染地下水的监测管理提供了一种有效方法。 相似文献
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地下水库库容不确定性分析 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
文章利用蒙特卡罗方法分析了济宁市潜水含水层给水度空间分布的随机性对地下水库库容计算值的影响，讨论了当给水度均值与方差发生变化时，库容均值和方差的变化特征，为地下水库合理规划建设和地下水人工回灌的实施提供了依据。 相似文献
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Spatial relations between land use and groundwater quality in the watershed adjacent to Assateague Island National Seashore,
Maryland and Virginia, USA were analyzed by the use of two spatial models. One model used a logit analysis and the other was
based on geostatistics. The models were developed and compared on the basis of existing concentrations of nitrate as nitrogen
in samples from 529 domestic wells. The models were applied to produce spatial probability maps that show areas in the watershed
where concentrations of nitrate in groundwater are likely to exceed a predetermined management threshold value. Maps of the
watershed generated by logistic regression and probability kriging analysis showing where the probability of nitrate concentrations
would exceed 3 mg/L (>0.50) compared favorably. Logistic regression was less dependent on the spatial distribution of sampled
wells, and identified an additional high probability area within the watershed that was missed by probability kriging. The
spatial probability maps could be used to determine the natural or anthropogenic factors that best explain the occurrence
and distribution of elevated concentrations of nitrate (or other constituents) in shallow groundwater. This information can
be used by local land-use planners, ecologists, and managers to protect water supplies and identify land-use planning solutions
and monitoring programs in vulnerable areas. 相似文献
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Zekai Şen Saleh A. Al Sefry Saleh A. Al Ghamdi Wahib A. Ashi Wael A. Bardi 《Arabian Journal of Geosciences》2013,6(11):4363-4375
A strategic approach is presented for future groundwater reservoir planning in arid regions where the evaluation of groundwater resources is restricted by scarcity of rainfall, data paucity, restrictive and unrepresentative methodologies, weak economies, almost nonexisting management and optimization programs, frequent groundwater quality variables along short distances, etc. This paper explains the necessary steps in preparing an effective strategic planning program that is expected to provide all the necessary data for identifying alternative solution scenarios especially in arid regions. It is shown on the basis of available scarce data that the risk model of these factors appears as the logarithmic normal probability distribution. The basic decision variables in groundwater storage and recharge planning are furnished with application to Wadi Fatimah in the western central part of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia along the Red Sea coast. The approach given in this paper provides a basic example for future groundwater reservoir strategic use and management studies in the Kingdom in particular and in any part of the arid regions of the world, in general. 相似文献
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This paper describes the implementation of process-based models reflecting relative groundwater nitrate vulnerability of the
shallow alluvial Lower Savinja Valley (LSV) aquifer in Slovenia. A spatially explicit identification of the potentially vulnerable
priority areas within groundwater bodies at risk from a chemical point of view is being required for cost-effective measures
and monitoring planning. The shallow LSV unconfined aquifer system consists of high-permeable Holocene and middle- to low-permeable
Pleistocene gravel and sand, with a maximum thickness of about 30 m, mainly covered by shallow eutric fluvisoils or variously
deep eutric cambisoil. The hydrogeological parameters, e.g. the depth to the groundwater, hydrological role of the topographic
slope, etc. usually used in different point count schemes are, in the case of the lowland aquifer and shallow groundwater,
spatially very uniform with low variability. Furthermore, the parametric point count methods are generally not able to illustrate
and analyze important physical processes, and validation of the results is difficult and expensive. Instead of a parametric
point count scheme, we experimentally used the Arc-WofE extension for weights-of-evidence (WofE) modelling. All measurement
locations with a concentration higher than the value of 20 mg NO3
− per litre of groundwater have been considered as training points (173), and the three process-based models generalized output
layers of groundwater recharge (GROWA), nitrate leached from the soil profile (SWAT) and groundwater flow velocity (FEFLOW),
served as evidential themes. The technique is based on the Bayesian idea of phenomena occurrences probability before (prior
probability) and after consideration of any evidential themes (posterior probability), which were measured by positive and
negative weights as an indication of the association between a phenomena and a prediction pattern. The response theme values
describe the relative probability that a 100 × 100 m spatial unit will have a groundwater nitrate concentration higher than
the training points’ limit values with regard to prior probability value. The lowest probability of groundwater nitrate occurrence
is in the parts of the LSV aquifer, which are known as anoxic condition areas with very likely denitrification processes.
The cross-validation of the dissolved oxygen and dissolved nitrate response theme confirmed the accuracy of the groundwater
nitrate prediction. The WofE model results very clearly indicate regional groundwater nitrate distribution and enable spatial
prediction of the probability for increased groundwater nitrate concentration in order to plan the groundwater nitrate reduction
measures and optimize the programme for monitoring the effects of these measures. 相似文献
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广州市白云区岩溶塌陷风险初探 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
识别出广州白云区岩溶塌陷风险因素,构建岩溶塌陷层次递阶结构模型,运用层次分析法的相关原理计算出基本风险因素对岩溶塌陷风险事件的影响权重。定义极易塌陷区Ⅰ、易塌陷区Ⅱ、次易塌陷区Ⅲ、不易塌陷区Ⅳ和稳定区Ⅴ共5个岩溶塌陷等级分区,建立各基本风险因素5个等级与岩溶塌陷等级分区的对应关系。为实现岩溶塌陷风险的定量评价,定义单因素致塌概率pi,引入伯努利试验建立岩溶塌陷概率计算模型,选取覆盖层厚度、岩溶发育程度、地下水位埋深、基岩岩性、覆盖层结构与底板岩性、地下水开采强度、地下活动强度和地表施工加载与振动等8个基本风险因素参与评价单元塌陷概率计算,并据此确定岩溶塌陷风险等级狭义标准,为区域岩溶塌陷等级分区的划分提供参考依据。岩溶塌陷风险等级分区表明：极易塌陷区集中在分析区内的江村、古楼岗、泉溪、西湖、社岗一带;易塌陷区和次易塌陷区主要分布在江高镇和原石井镇等地带。风险等级分区与白云区已有岩溶塌陷历史统计资料及塌陷危害程度评价结果较为吻合,从而验证了评价方法的有效性。 相似文献
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Spatial risk analysis of Li-shan landslide in Taiwan 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
By coupling limit equilibrium analysis and Monte Carlo analysis with a geography information system (GIS), this study implements a method that can evaluate the risk (corresponding to probability of failure in this study) of landslide with consideration of spatial uncertainties. The GIS can adopt the three-dimensional information including surface topography, underground geomaterial distribution and groundwater level to determine slope profiles for analysis. Then the safety of defined slope can be evaluated by limit equilibrium analysis. In this study, the mechanical properties of geomaterial were considered as random variables instead of single values. The slope and groundwater profiles are also randomly adopted. Through a Monte Carlo sampling process, a distribution of safety factor and probability of failure can be determined. This probabilistic risk analysis approach was applied to Li-shan landslide in Central Taiwan.
Due to heavy rains, the sites near the highway 7A (mileage 73 k + 150) and the highway 8 (mileage 82 k) in the Li-shan Township began to subside in mid April 1990. Topography, geology, and groundwater condition of this area were first reviewed. Based on this review, together with field investigations and a series of limit equilibrium back analyses, a general hypothetic model was established to illustrate the failure mechanism of this landslide area. Then the developed probabilistic risk analysis model is applied to spatially evaluate the risk of this landslide area as well as the performance of the remediation treatment. 相似文献
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泥石流风险及沟谷泥石流风险度评价 总被引：28，自引：4，他引：24
风险一词虽然已经广泛被科学家和经济学家所使用 ,但涉及到自然灾害的风险研究则还是 2 0世纪 80年代中后期的事。国内有关泥石流风险的探讨 ,更是 2 0世纪 90年代才初见端倪。国际上 ,泥石流风险评价至今仍然是前沿探索性领域和新兴的研究课题。基于联合国对自然灾害风险的定义及其定量表达 ,本文给出了泥石流风险度 =危险度易损度这一数学命题的近似解。讨论了风险分级和不同风险等级的分布概率以及风险指南。以云南东川因民矿区黑山沟泥石流为例 ,对单沟泥石流风险度评价模型进行了示范应用 相似文献