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1.
21世纪中叶天津沿海地区极端高水位趋势预测   总被引:6,自引:3,他引:3  
宋美钰  王福  王宏 《地质通报》2008,27(6):829-836
据统计,天津沿海地区50年一遇的风暴潮极端增水水位为 4.092m,开展控沉工作后的地面下沉速率约为15mm/a,目前沿岸海挡顶面高程一般为 4.332m.参考孟加拉湾、伦敦、汉堡等沿海地区在2050年海平面上升(取较今高约0.2m的推测值)背景下的极端增水趋势预测(增加0.5m),推测天津沿海地区2050年的极端高水位将增加到 4.792m(4.092m 0.2m 0.5m),现有海挡顶面高程将下沉至 3.687m(以2007年为起算年份).2050年极端高水位将比届时的海挡顶面高1.105m,由此将加重风暴潮水漫溢致灾的危险.如果再考虑波浪叠加、河口效应、极端海面上升等不确定因素的影响,危险将更加严重.  相似文献   

2.
渤海湾西岸全新世海面变化   总被引:5,自引:0,他引:5  
在讨论海面标志点基本定义的基础上,从渤海湾西岸534个原始数据中获得了136个指示高水位、潮间带或低水位的海面变化标志点,并重建了它们的相对海平面时空分布,进而获得了渤海湾西岸全新世相对海平面变化带.约10cal.ka B.P.时,相对海平面变化带达到-25m,以约6m/1000a(即约6mm/a)的平均速率上升,在6cal.ka B.P.前后达到现代海面的高度;6cal.ka B.P.至今,变化带的高度介于+1m~-2m之间,未发现中全新世相对高海面.再搬运海相贝类和陆相泥炭类样品的14C年龄,分别存在约600年和660年的驻留时间.经过驻留时间校正的新海面变化年代学序列,将渤海湾相对海平面达到现代高度的时间点确定为约6cal.ka B.P.,从而与全球海面变化的对比更为准确.渤海湾盆地的长期稳定下沉和沉积自重压实的共同作用,可能抵消了冰川均衡调整(GIA)引起的中全新世数米高的相对高海面.  相似文献   

3.
近4万年以来,相应于两次高太阳辐射暖湿期渤海西岸曾经两次海水泛陆事件,即40~28kaB.P.与10~4kaB.P.海侵事件。文章基于众多钻孔海相层中有孔虫、介形类等海相微体生物化石的组合特征恢复海水深度,重建了海侵最大时的古海面的现代标高。结果显示: 40~28kaB.P.海侵,海面的现代标高最高可达-11~-5m;10~4kaB.P.海侵则为2~3m。后者同众多研究所认为的中全新世存在高海面,海面高度为2~3m的结论大致吻合,前者则与全球气候尚处在间冰阶,冰川部分消融,世界洋面处在-50m的大背景不协调。而辽东与山东半岛沿海众多钻孔揭示,40~28kaB.P.渤海地区并没有高于-50~-20m海面存在的证据。通过区域环境的综合分析,认为40~28kaB.P.渤海西岸的海侵,是早玉木冰期持续4~5万年之久的冰期低海面环境,这种特殊的环境使现代渤海西岸的大部分区域远离沉积环境,成为冲刷侵蚀区,这种效应叠加在冰期边缘海式构造下沉与弧后盆地性质的构造下沉背景之上造成区域性异常地面低洼;渤海西岸异常地面低洼在间冰阶全球趋暖,冰川型海侵的过程中形成的区域性强烈"视"海侵(指示当时海侵时海水深度很大,而不是海水的陆泛范围大)。  相似文献   

4.
在对莱州湾南岸8个钻孔沉积物沉积结构及有孔虫特征分析基础上,识别相关海面标志层位,辅以加速器质谱AMS14C测年,重建了全新世相对海面变化历史,并讨论了海面变化的沉积响应及控制因素。约9200cal BP以前,海面快速上升,研究区海侵时海面于-21.5m左右;9200~8400cal BP海面上升速率减缓至约2mm/a;8400~8000cal BP海面由-14m快速上升至-5.5m,速率约为33mm/a;8000~7600cal BP,海面持续数百年停滞或微弱下降;7600~7000cal BP海面由-5.5m快速上升至0m以上,速率至少约为13mm/a;7000~6000cal BP海面缓慢上升至+2~+3m位置,速率约为3mm/a;约6000cal BP以后海面缓慢下降至现今水平。约9200cal BP以前、8400~8000cal BP、7600~7000cal BP时期的3次海面快速上升,是MWP-1C融水脉冲、诱发8.2ka冷事件的融水脉冲,以及MWP-2融水脉冲的中纬度地区响应。中全新世全球冰融趋于停滞后,由于研究区沉积盆地沉降速度较慢,在冰川均衡调整效应下,使+2~+3m的相对高海面得以呈现。  相似文献   

5.
李勇  田立柱  裴艳东  王福  王宏 《地质通报》2016,35(10):1638-1645
基于ROMS海洋模式,结合近年的地质实测资料,建立了渤海湾西部地区风暴潮漫滩的数值模型。对模型进行验证后,对渤海湾西部区域重现期为50a、100a、200a及500a的风暴潮漫滩进行了数值模拟,分析了不同重现期风暴潮漫滩发展的动态过程及最大漫滩淹水范围。结果表明,数值模型基本能反映风暴潮的增水趋势,能够模拟风暴潮漫滩发生发展的动态过程。随着风暴潮强度的增加,渤海湾西部地区淹水范围具有从东海岸向西部内陆区域扩展的趋势。通过曲线拟合发现,风暴潮最大漫滩面积比值与高水位之间基本呈线性关系。  相似文献   

6.
陆德贤 《水文》1994,(4):47-50
地面沉降区的水位改正方法陆德贤(江苏省无锡水文水资源勘测处)由于过量开采地下水,造成地下水位不断下降,引起了地面的下沉问题。据江苏省水利勘测总队近期水准测量资料可知,沿苏南大运河各城市,普遍存在地面的下沉:1959~1983年常州市地面下沉0.37m...  相似文献   

7.
根据巨葛庄贝壳堤及下伏泥层的有孔虫研究,讨论了贝壳堤底板和下伏泥层各类沉积环境的海面意义,以此作为海面标志点重建的古海面误差范围为±0.225~±0.625m。结合该贝壳堤底板和下伏泥层顶板的年龄数据,重建了3900~3300cal BP时的海面高度为-2.955~-2.715m。  相似文献   

8.
骆冠勇  马铭骏  曹洪  潘泓 《岩土力学》2020,41(11):3730-3739
临江场地的地下水位受外江水位影响,具有长期水位较低、短期汛期水位极高的特点。临江场地内的地下结构,若仅采用抗拔桩或抗拔锚杆等常规被动抗浮措施进行抗浮,将抗浮设防水位取为地表高程显然是偏危险的,但按50年一遇和100年一遇水位采用常规被动抗浮措施进行抗浮设计又显然是不经济的,成本极高。基于此,提出抗浮范畴临江结构的定义及其“排水廊道+常规抗浮措施”的主被动联合抗浮的方法。根据临江承压圆湖公式,考虑越流效应,给出了临江排水廊道简化计算分析方法并进行了有限元验证。临江地下结构利用排水廊道进行防洪渡汛,保证汛期地下结构水荷载稳定,消除汛期高水压对结构产生的极端水荷载,而对于平时非汛期水位的作用则利用常规抗浮措施进行考虑。廊道只在汛期高水位时起防洪渡汛作用,排水减压不会引起环境影响问题,同时其耐久性也容易保证。最后介绍利用此方法进行抗浮的实际工程。  相似文献   

9.
现代黄河三角洲滨海湿地生态水文环境脆弱性   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1       下载免费PDF全文
受大气降水、黄河水位断流、风暴潮和人类工程活动等因素影响,现代黄河三角洲滨海湿地生态水文环境极其脆弱和敏感。本文运用地下水数值模拟方法,通过构建滨海湿地水文模型,以氯离子作为模拟因子,预测滨海湿地地下水趋势性变化。计算结果显示,湿地水位和盐度对湿地生长和发育起控制作用;黄河持续断流和强烈风暴潮对湿地水质影响明显;当风暴潮引起增水幅度超过正常潮高的2.4m,会造成沿海低地特别是北部未受防潮大坝保护的滨海湿地淹没。  相似文献   

10.
渤海湾西岸泥质海岸带地质环境现状与趋势预测   总被引:4,自引:3,他引:1  
简要介绍了与泥质海岸带现代地质环境变化有关的最新研究结果,包括地质历史时期全球气温与海面的变化、21世纪海平面上升趋势预测、极端高水位、新奥尔良实例等。根据对前人成果的综合研究和小组获得的最新数据,阐明了影响渤海湾西岸环境变化的主要因素——保有高程、加积作用、地面下沉、海面上升和以极端增水为代表的突发事件——各自的现状,提出了综合诸因素相互作用的泥质海岸带的研究思路和警惕可能的沼泽化趋势的建议。  相似文献   

11.
The northern coasts of the Gulf of Mexico (GoM) are highly vulnerable to the direct threats of climate change, such as hurricane-induced storm surge, and such risks are exacerbated by land subsidence and global sea-level rise. This paper presents an application of a coastal storm surge model to study the coastal inundation process induced by tide and storm surge, and its response to the effects of land subsidence and sea-level rise in the northern Gulf coast. The unstructured-grid finite-volume coastal ocean model was used to simulate tides and hurricane-induced storm surges in the GoM. Simulated distributions of co-amplitude and co-phase lines for semi-diurnal and diurnal tides are in good agreement with previous modeling studies. The storm surges induced by four historical hurricanes (Rita, Katrina, Ivan, and Dolly) were simulated and compared to observed water levels at National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration tide stations. Effects of coastal subsidence and future global sea-level rise on coastal inundation in the Louisiana coast were evaluated using a “change of inundation depth” parameter through sensitivity simulations that were based on a projected future subsidence scenario and 1-m global sea-level rise by the end of the century. Model results suggested that hurricane-induced storm surge height and coastal inundation could be exacerbated by future global sea-level rise and subsidence, and that responses of storm surge and coastal inundation to the effects of sea-level rise and subsidence are highly nonlinear and vary on temporal and spatial scales.  相似文献   

12.
《China Geology》2019,2(1):26-39
Bulletins of China’s National Sea Level show that the average rising rate of sea-levels in China is 3.3 mm/a over the past 40 years, with an obviously accelerated rising trend in the last decade. The rate of relative sea-level rise of the Yangtze River Delta reached >10 mm/a after considering the land subsidence, and Bohai Bay is even greater than 25 mm/a. The impact of the sea level rise to the coastal area will be greater in the coming years, so carrying out an assessment of this rising trend is urgent. This paper, taking the coastal area of Tianjin and Hebei as examples, comprehensively evaluates the impact of sea-level rise through multitemporal remote sensing shoreline interpretation, ground survey verification, elevation measurements for both seawall and coastal lowlands. The results show that the average elevation of the measured coastal areas of Tianjin and Hebei is about +4 m, and the total area of >100 km2 is already below the present mean sea level. More than 270 km, ca. 31% of the total length of the seawall, cannot withstand a 1-in-100-year storm surge. Numerical simulations of the storm flooding on the west coast of Bohai Bay, for 1-in-50-years, 1-in-100-years, 1-in-200-years and 1-in-500-years, show that if there were no coastal dykes, the maximum flooding area would exceed 3000 km2, 4000 km2, 5300 km2 and 7200 km2, respectively. The rising sea has a direct and potential impact on the coastal lowlands of Tianjin and Hebei. Based on the latest development in international sea-level rise prediction research, this paper proposes 0.5 m, 1.0 m and 1.5 m as low, middle and high sea level rise scenarios by 2100 for the study area, and combines the land subsidence and other factors to the elevation of the existing seawall. Comprehensive evaluation results indicate that even in the case of a low scenario, the existing seawall will not be able to withstand a 1-in-100-years storm surge in 2030, and the potential flooding areas predicted by the model will become a reality in the near future. Therefore, the seawall design in the coastal areas of Tianjin and Hebei must consider the combined effects of land subsidence, sea level rise and the extreme storm surges caused by it.©2019 China Geology Editorial Office.  相似文献   

13.
The paper deals with the geological setting, history and subsidence of the Venetian Plain. Major attention is paid to the Pleistocene-Holocene stratigraphic sequence in the Lagoon of Venice, in relation to its origin that datesback to 6-7 kyr BP. Geological land subsidence, which played an important role in the origin and the evolution of the lagoon, and anthropogenic subsidence, that has recently assumed a major importance for the Venetian environment, are discussed. Considering also the sealevel rise, 23 cm loss in land elevation has occurred in the last century, leading to increased flooding events and environmental problems that require protective works.  相似文献   

14.
The devastation due to storm surge flooding caused by extreme wind waves generated by the cyclones is a severe apprehension along the coastal regions of India. In order to coexist with nature’s destructive forces in any vulnerable coastal areas, numerical ocean models are considered today as an essential tool to predict the sea level rise and associated inland extent of flooding that could be generated by a cyclonic storm crossing any coastal stretch. For this purpose, the advanced 2D depth-integrated (ADCIRC-2DDI) circulation model based on finite-element formulation is configured for the simulation of surges and water levels along the east coast of India. The model is integrated using wind stress forcing, representative of 1989, 1996, and 2000 cyclones, which crossed different parts of the east coast of India. Using the long-term inventory of cyclone database, synthesized tracks are deduced for vulnerable coastal districts of Tamil Nadu. Return periods are also computed for the intensity and frequency of cyclones for each coastal district. Considering the importance of Kalpakkam region, extreme water levels are computed based on a 50-year return period data, for the generation of storm surges, induced water levels, and extent of inland inundation. Based on experimental evidence, it is advocated that this region could be inundated/affected by a storm with a threshold pressure drop of 66 hpa. Also it is noticed that the horizontal extent of inland inundation ranges between 1 and 1.5 km associated with the peak surge. Another severe cyclonic storm in Tamil Nadu (November 2000 cyclone), which made landfall approximately 20 km south of Cuddalore, has been chosen to simulate surges and water levels. Two severe cyclonic storms that hit Andhra coast during 1989 and 1996, which made landfall near Kavali and Kakinada, respectively, are also considered and computed run-up heights and associated water levels. The simulations exhibit a good agreement with available observations from the different sources on storm surges and associated inundation caused by these respective storms. It is believed that this study would help the coastal authorities to develop a short- and long-term disaster management, mitigation plan, and emergency response in the event of storm surge flooding.  相似文献   

15.
Urban drainage systems in coastal cities in SE China are characterized by often complex canal and sluicegate systems that are designed to safely drain pluvial flooding whilst preventing tidal inundation.However, the risk of coastal flooding in the region is expected to increase over the next 50-100 years, as urban areas continue to expand and sea-levels are expected to rise. To assess the impact of projected sealevel rise on this type of urban drainage system, a one-dimensional model and decision support tool was developed. The model indicated that although sea-level rise represents a significant challenge, flood probability will continue to be most influenced by rainfall. Events that are significant enough to cause flooding will most likely be minimally impacted by changes to the tidal frame. However, it was found that a sea-level rise of up to 1.2 m by 2010 would result in increased drainage times and higher volumes of over-topping when flooding occurs.  相似文献   

16.
Sea-level rise will increase the area covered by hurricane storm surges in coastal zones. This research assesses how patterns of vulnerability to storm-surge flooding could change in Hampton Roads, Virginia as a result of sea-level rise. Physical exposure to storm-surge flooding is mapped for all categories of hurricane, both for present sea level and for future sea-level rise. The locations of vulnerable sub-populations are determined through an analysis and mapping of socioeconomic characteristics commonly associated with vulnerability to environmental hazards and are compared to the flood-risk exposure zones. Scenarios are also developed that address uncertainties regarding future population growth and distribution. The results show that hurricane storm surge presents a significant hazard to Hampton Roads today, especially to the most vulnerable inhabitants of the region. In addition, future sea-level rise, population growth, and poorly planned development will increase the risk of storm-surge flooding, especially for vulnerable people, thus suggesting that planning should steer development away from low-lying coastal and near-coastal zones.  相似文献   

17.
Shanghai is physically and socio-economically vulnerable to accelerated sea level rise because of its low elevation, flat topography, highly developed economy and highly-dense population. In this paper, two scenarios of sea level rise and storm surge flooding along the Shanghai coast are presented by forecasting 24 (year 2030) and 44 (year 2050) years into the future and are applied to a digital elevation model to illustrate the extent to which coastal areas are susceptible to levee breach and overtopping using previously developed inflow calculating and flood routing models. Further, the socio-economic impacts are examined by combining the inundation areas with land use and land cover change simulated using GeoCA-Urban software package. This analysis shows that levee breach inundation mainly occurs in the coastal zones and minimally intrudes inland with the conservative protection of dike systems designed. However, storm surge flooding at the possible maximum tide level could cause nearly total inundation of the landscape, and put approximately 24 million people in Shanghai under direct risk resulting from consequences of flooding (e.g. contamination of potable water supplies, failure of septic systems, etc.).  相似文献   

18.
Catastrophic flooding associated with sea-level rise and change of hurricane patterns has put the northeastern coastal regions of the United States at a greater risk. In this paper, we predict coastal flooding at the east bank of Delaware Bay and analyze the resulting impact on residents and transportation infrastructure. The three-dimensional coastal ocean model FVCOM coupled with a two-dimensional shallow water model is used to simulate hydrodynamic flooding from coastal ocean water with fine-resolution meshes, and a topography-based hydrologic method is applied to estimate inland flooding due to precipitation. The entire flooded areas with a range of storm intensity (i.e., no storm, 10-, and 50-year storm) and sea-level rise (i.e., current, 10-, and 50-year sea level) are thus determined. The populations in the study region in 10 and 50 years are predicted using an economic-demographic model. With the aid of ArcGIS, detailed analysis of affected population and transportation systems including highway networks, railroads, and bridges is presented for all of the flood scenarios. It is concluded that sea-level rise will lead to a substantial increase in vulnerability of residents and transportation infrastructure to storm floods, and such a flood tends to affect more population in Cape May County but more transportation facilities in Cumberland County, New Jersey.  相似文献   

19.
An important factor contributing to the deterioration of wetland forests in Louisiana is increasing water levels resulting from eustatic sea-level rise and subsidence. Analyses of long-term water level records from the Barataria and Verret watersheds in southeastern Louisiana indicate an apparent sea level rise of about 1-m per century, mainly the result of subsidence. Permanent study plots were established in cypress-tupelo stands in these two watersheds. The tree, water level, and subsidence data collected in these plots were entered into the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service’s FORFLO bottomland hardwood succession model to determine the long-term effects of rising water levels on forest structure. Analyses were made of 50–100 years for a cypress-tupelo swamp site in each basin and a bottomland hardwood ridge in the Verret watershed. As flooding increased, less flood tolerant species were replaced by cypress-tupelo within 50 years. As flooding continued, the sites start to become nonforested. From the test analyses, the FORFLO model seems to be an excellent tool for predicting long-term changes in the swamp habitat of south Louisiana.  相似文献   

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