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1.
现行分期设计洪水模式估算的分期设计洪水值均小于或等于年最大设计值,达不到规定的防洪标准。采用Gumbel-Hougaard Copula函数描述两个分期的分期最大洪水之间的相关性结构,并构造边缘分布为P-Ⅲ分布的分期最大洪水联合分布,建立分期最大洪水与年最大洪水的关系式,讨论分期设计洪水频率与防洪标准应满足的关系,探讨能够满足防洪标准的新的分期设计洪水模式。应用示例表明,新模式主汛期设计值相对年最大设计值小幅度增加,而非主汛期设计值则小于年最大设计值,既满足不降低防洪标准的要求又能够起到优化设计洪水的作用,为分期设计洪水研究提供了一条新的思路。 相似文献
2.
Strong wind and rainfall induced by extreme meteorological processes such as typhoons have a serious impact on the safety of bridges and offshore engineering structures. A new bivariate compound extreme value distribution is proposed to describe the probability dependency structure of annual extreme wind speed and concomitant process maximum rainfall intensity in typhoon-affected area. This probability model takes full account of the case that there may be no rainfall in a typhoon process. A case study based on the observation data of typhoon maximum wind speed and maximum rainfall intensity in Shanghai is conducted to testify the efficiency of the model. Weibull distributions with two parameters are applied to fit respective probability margins, and the joint probability distribution is constructed by Gumbel–Hougaard copula. The fitting results and K–S tests show that these models describe the original data well. The joint return periods are calculated by Poisson bivariate compound extreme value distribution we have proposed. They indicate that typhoons with no rain have smaller joint return periods, and wind speed is the main factor which impacts the change of the joint return periods. 相似文献
3.
基于国内103个水利水电工程1 174组岩基抗剪强度试验数据,采用Copula函数研究岩基抗剪强度参数联合分布模型,探讨水利水电工程中岩基抗剪强度参数联合分布模型构建方法。利用最小二乘法求出岩基抗剪强度参数试验数据的相关统计参数,基于AIC准则识别出岩基抗剪强度参数边缘分布。选择4种Copula函数构造岩基抗剪强度参数二维分布模型,探讨了基于Copula函数的岩基抗剪强度参数二维分布模型的优越性。结果表明：水利水电工程岩基抗剪强度参数存在明显的统计负相关性。Copula方法能够构造具有任意边缘分布和任意相关结构的岩基抗剪强度参数联合分布模型,它为构造抗剪强度参数联合分布模型提供了一种简便的工具。已知岩基抗剪强度参数的边缘分布函数和相关系数不能唯一确定岩基抗剪强度参数的联合概率分布模型,在抗剪强度参数边缘分布函数和相关系数完全相同的前提下,不同Copula函数建立的抗剪强度参数联合概率分布模型差异显著。与常用的抗剪强度参数二维正态分布模型相比,基于Copula函数的抗剪强度参数二维分布模型具有较强的灵活性,它能更好地拟合原始观测数据。水利水电工程中惯用小值平均法确定标准值,当摩擦系数取较小值时,不同Copula函数构造的黏聚力的条件累积分布函数差异显著,这将对抗剪强度参数标准值的选取以及相应的设计方案具有明显的影响。 相似文献
4.
In this paper, we consider a Markov renewal process (MRP) to model tropical cyclones occurred in Bangladesh during 1877–2009. The model takes into account both the occurrence history and some physical constraints to capture the main physical characteristics of the storm surge process. We assume that the sequence of cyclones constitutes a Markov chain, and sojourn times follow a Weibull distribution. The parameters of the Weibull MRP jointly with transition probabilities are estimated using the maximum likelihood method. The model shows a good fit with the real events, and probabilities of occurrence of different types of cyclones are calculated for various lengths of time interval using the model. Stationary probabilities and mean recurrence times are also calculated. A brief comparison with a Poisson model and a marked Poisson model has also been demonstrated. 相似文献
5.
Probability of earthquake occurrence as obtained from a Weibull distribution analysis of crustal strain 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
Yukio Hagiwara 《Tectonophysics》1974,23(3):313-318
Probability of a large-scale earthquake occurrence is estimated from crustal strain geodetically detected over an earthquake area. The Weibull distribution function, which is widely applied to quality-control research, is made use of in this paper in the probabilistic treatments of crustal strain.Using the table of ultimate strain presented by Rikitake (1974), a Weibull model representing a statistical distribution of crustal-rupture occurrence time is determined on the assumption that the crust is strained with a constant speed. In the case of the South Kanto District, the associated probability-density function has a maximum at about 84 years after the time when the strain energy accumulation starts. 相似文献
6.
Micromechanical Model for Simulating the Fracture Process of Rock 总被引：25，自引：3，他引：25
Summary A micromechanical model is proposed to study the deformation and failure process of rock based on knowledge of heterogeneity of rock at the mesoscopic level. In this numerical model, the heterogeneity of rock at the mesoscopic level is considered by assuming the material properties in rock conform to the Weibull distribution. Elastic damage mechanics is used to describe the constitutive law of meso-level elements, the finite element method is employed as the basic stress analysis tool and the maximum tensile strain criterion as well as the Mohr-Coulomb criterion is utilized as the damage threshold. A simple method, similar to a smeared crack model, is used for tracing the crack propagation process and interaction of multiple cracks. Based on this model, a numerical simulation program named Rock Failure Process Analysis Code (RFPA) is developed. The influence of parameters that include the Weibull distribution parameters, constitutive parameters of meso-level elements and number of elements in the numerical model, are discussed in detail. It is shown that the homogeneity index is the most important factor to simulate material failure with this model. This model is able to capture the complete mechanical responses of rock, which includes the crack patterns associated with different loading stages and loading conditions, localization of deformation, stress redistribution and failure process. The numerical simulation of rock specimens under a variety of static loading conditions is presented, and the results compare well with experimental results. 相似文献
7.
红砂岩在我国分布广泛，由于含水率的变化使其崩解破碎十分显著。采用湖南株洲地区的红砂岩样，进行室内静态与扰动崩解试验。基于Weibull分布建立了红砂岩颗粒崩解破碎级配曲线演化模型，分析了模型参数λ与k的意义。分析表明，Weibull分布参数λ与k的大小及变化速率体现了红砂岩颗粒崩解破碎的演化过程。在建立模型的基础上，求得了相对崩解比的计算公式，并验证了计算公式的正确性。依据试验结果与模型计算值，讨论了耐崩解性指数与崩解比的异同及所采用试验方法的不同对试验结果造成的影响。在已有成果的基础上，验证了Weibull分布模型应用于岩石颗粒崩解破碎演化过程的可行性。 相似文献
8.
CFG桩(cement-fly ash-gravel pile)复合地基是一种重要的地基处理形式,在日益增加的大面积住宅和商业开发中作用越来越突出,然而该种桩型的加卸荷-沉降变形特性仍然需深入研究,尤其在概率评估方面。根据北京星光影视股份有限公司生产科研基地项目工地中的21根CFG桩单桩静载试验和32个复合地基静载试验的原位加卸载测试成果,采用两参数的双曲线或幂曲线回归拟合了每一条加荷-变形曲线。由于土体的内在各向异性和其强度的变异性,评估整个场地的加荷-变形曲线时,其回归参数表现出了较大的离散性。将一个场地的多组回归参数组成一个随机向量,其加载-位移曲线的不确定性可由简单的两变量随机向量体现,引入双变量联结函数（Copula）描述随机回归参数间的相依性。最后,考虑正常使用极限状态,采用基于Copula函数的模拟模型计算了CFG桩复合地基的可靠度指标。研究结果有助于改进CFG桩复合地基的概率设计与评估。 相似文献
9.
Analysis of human risks due to dam-break floods—part 1: a new model based on Bayesian networks 总被引：3，自引：2，他引：1
Dam breaks have catastrophic consequences for human lives. This paper presents a new human risk analysis model (HURAM) using Bayesian networks for estimating human risks due to dam-break floods. A Bayesian network is constructed according to a logic structure of loss-of-life mechanisms. The nodes (parameters) and the arcs (inter-relationships) of the network are quantified with historical data, existing models and physical analyses. A dataset of 343 dam-failure cases with records of fatality is compiled for this purpose. Comparison between two existing models and the new model is made to test the new model. Finally, sensitivity analysis is conducted to identify the important parameters that lead to loss of life. The new model is able to take into account a large number of important parameters and their inter-relationships in a systematic structure; include the uncertainties of these parameters and their inter-relationships; incorporate information derived from physical analysis, empirical models and historical data; and update the predictions when information in specific cases is available. The application of this model to the study of human risks in a specific dam-break case is presented in a companion paper. 相似文献
10.
This paper aims to investigate the impact of sample size on geotechnical probabilistic model identification. First, the copula approach is presented to model the bivariate distribution of geotechnical parameters. Thereafter, the AIC scores are adopted to identify the best-fit marginal distribution and copula. Second, the variation of AIC scores because of small sample size is investigated using simulated data. Finally, the impact of the variation of AIC scores on identification of the best-fit marginal distribution and copula is examined. The minimum sample sizes for geotechnical data are also suggested to obtain a correct identification of the probabilistic models. The results indicate that the AIC scores estimated from a small sample exhibit large variation. The variation of the AIC scores has a significant impact on probabilistic model identification. The marginal distributions and copulas have a low percentage of correct identification when sample size is small. The percentages of correct identification for the marginal distributions and copulas increase with increasing sample size. The correlation coefficient between geotechnical parameters has a much larger impact on probabilistic model identification than the COV of geotechnical parameters. The suggested minimum sample sizes for geotechnical data are useful for guiding practical geotechnical site investigation. 相似文献
11.
细观非均匀性对脆性岩石材料宏观破坏形式的影响 总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6
岩石材料的宏观力学特征是材料内部细观力学特性的综合反映。对于脆性岩石材料,其内部的非均匀性对材料的宏观破坏形式有着重要的影响。应用演化细胞自动机方法（ECA）对岩石的非均匀性进行了初步的探讨。该方法以位移、力、应力和应变等矢量和张量作为系统的基本变量,定量计算了反映岩石破坏过程中应力集中以及应力重新分布的过程。在宏观上则认为脆性岩石材料是一种非均匀性材料,并假定脆性岩石材料的非均匀性符合Weibull分布,坡度参数m是Weibull分布中的反映分布非均匀程度的重要参数。通过对符合Weibull分布中不同坡度参数的脆性岩石材料进行数值模拟试验,发现由Weibull分布中的坡度参数表示的非均匀性是影响脆性岩石材料破坏方式的重要因素,材料的坡度参数越小,材料越不均匀,其破坏形式则越具有随机性;材料的坡度参数越大,材料越趋于均匀,其破坏形式越具有规则性,即趋于弹性材料的破坏形式,这与试验结果是吻合的。 相似文献
12.
为合理定量评价草本植物根径、抗拉力和抗拉强度等指标分布特征，本研究选取生长于青海河南县地区的黄花棘豆(Oxytropis ochrocephala)、早熟禾(Poa annua)、紫花针茅(Stipa purpurea)、青藏苔草(Carex moorcroftii)和矮嵩草(Kobresia humilis)5种草本植物为研究对象，通过室内单根拉伸试验对上述草本单根抗拉力、根径和抗拉强度进行了测定；在此基础上，利用正态分布、伽马分布、泊松分布、瑞利分布以及威布尔分布等统计模型对上述指标的分布进行了定性拟合分析，最后采用柯尔莫哥洛夫-斯米洛夫检验对该指标进行了定量检验。结果表明:5种统计模型中，泊松分布对3项指标值分布的描述性相对较差，威布尔和伽马分布则对上述3项指标的分布描述较好，剩余分布对指标描述的适用性则介于两者之间。此外，所有指标均不服从泊松分布，根径均服从正态分布、伽马分布和威布尔分布，个别植物服从瑞利分布，抗拉力和抗拉强度均服从伽马分布和威布尔分布，个别植物服从瑞利分布和正态分布；除紫花针茅根径最优分布为威布尔分布外，其余植物根径最优分布均为伽马分布，除矮嵩草抗拉力服从威布尔分布外，剩余植物抗拉力最优分布均为伽马分布，紫花针茅根系抗拉强度最优分布为正态分布、青藏苔草和矮嵩草为伽马分布、早熟禾与黄花棘豆最优分布均为威布尔分布。该项研究结果对于实现合理定量评价草本植物根系根径、抗拉力和抗拉强度性能具有重要的理论参考价值。 相似文献
13.
Heuristic models for indicator variograms and their parameters (practical nugget effect and range) are proposed for a bivariate normal distribution with spherical correlogram. These models can be used conveniently as a preliminary check for bivariate normality. In the general non-Gaussian case, indicator variogram models for multiple threshold values must verify a certain number of order relations (inequalities) established directly from the properties of a general bivariate cumulative distribution function. An interesting, little-known maximum hole effect for indicator correlation is pointed out. 相似文献
14.
15.
In view of the growing importance of stochastic earthquake modeling in disaster preparation, the present study introduces a new family of exponentiated Weibull distribution and examines its performance in earthquake interevent time analysis in a stationary point process. This three-parameter (one scale and two shapes) distribution not only covers the Weibull distribution, exponentiated exponential distribution, Burr-type X distribution, Rayleigh distribution, and exponential distribution as special sub-families, but also offers monotone and non-monotone hazard shapes. Here we first describe some of the exponentiated Weibull distribution properties, such as the survival rate, mode, median, and hazard rate. We then provide statistical inference and goodness-of-fit measures to examine the suitability of exponentiated Weibull model in comparison with other popular models, like exponential, gamma, lognormal, Weibull, and exponentiated exponential. Finally, we conduct real data analysis to assess the usefulness and flexibility of exponentiated Weibull distribution in the context of seismic interevent time modeling and associated applications. Results suggest that the exponentiated Weibull distribution has a comparable performance with other popular distributions of its nature. However, further investigations are necessary to confirm the importance and flexibility of exponentiated Weibull distribution in statistical seismology. 相似文献
16.
Ali M. Subyani 《Arabian Journal of Geosciences》2011,4(5-6):817-824
In arid regions, flash floods often occur as a consequence of excessive rainfall. Occasionally causing major loss of property and life, floods are large events of relatively short duration. Makkah area in western Saudi Arabia is characterized by high rainfall intensity that leads to flash floods. This study quantifies the hydrological characteristics and flood probability of some major wadis in western Saudi Arabia, including Na’man, Fatimah, and Usfan. Flood responses in these wadis vary due to the nature and rainfall distribution within these wadis. Rainfall frequency analysis was performed using selected annual maximums of 24-h rainfall from eight stations located in the area. Two of the most applied methods of statistical distribution, Gumbel’s extreme value distribution and log Pearson type III distribution, were applied to maximum daily rainfall data over 26 to 40 years. The Gumbel’s model was found to be the best fitting model for identifying and predicting future rainfall occurrence. Rainfall estimations from different return periods were identified. Probable maximum floods of the major wadis studied were also estimated for different return periods, which were extrapolated from the probable maximum precipitation. 相似文献
17.
考虑损伤阀值影响的钢纤维混凝土损伤本构模型研究 总被引：4，自引：1，他引：3
从室内试验得到的不同体积率下的钢纤维混凝土全应力-应变曲线的特性,探讨了损伤变量的变化规律及建立钢纤维混凝土损伤本构模型时考虑损伤阀值影响的必要性。基于连续损伤力学理论和统计强度理论,在传统的两参数Weibull分布函数基础上引入损伤阀值参数（位置参数）,建立可考虑损伤阀值影响的钢纤维混凝土损伤本构模型,该模型可以反映钢纤维混凝土在低应力水平或变形较小时的线弹性变形特性;根据经验确定损伤阀值参数后,通过混凝土应力-应变全曲线的几何条件求解Weibull分布函数另外两个参数的表达式。最后,基于MATLAB的分析计算结果,并通过与钢纤维混凝土单轴压缩试验实测结果对比,证明模型可以很好的反映单轴受压状态下钢纤维混凝土的应力-应变关系,探讨了损伤阀值取值的大小。 相似文献
18.
The purpose of this article is to study the three-parameter (scale, shape, and location) generalized exponential (GE) distribution and examine its suitability in probabilistic earthquake recurrence modeling. The GE distribution shares many physical properties of the gamma and Weibull distributions. This distribution, unlike the exponential distribution, overcomes the burden of memoryless property. For shape parameter β> 1, the GE distribution offers increasing hazard function, which is in accordance with the elastic rebound theory of earthquake generation. In the present study, we consider a real, complete, and homogeneous earthquake catalog of 20 events with magnitude above 7.0 (Yadav et al. in Pure Appl Geophys 167:1331–1342, 2010) from northeast India and its adjacent regions (20°–32°N and 87°–100°E) to analyze earthquake inter-occurrence time from the GE distribution. We apply the modified maximum likelihood estimation method to estimate model parameters. We then perform a number of goodness-of-fit tests to evaluate the suitability of the GE model to other competitive models, such as the gamma and Weibull models. It is observed that for the present data set, the GE distribution has a better and more economical representation than the gamma and Weibull distributions. Finally, a few conditional probability curves (hazard curves) are presented to demonstrate the significance of the GE distribution in probabilistic assessment of earthquake hazards. 相似文献
19.
坝基深厚覆盖层密度辨识方法 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
提出了坝基深厚覆盖层密度辨识的基本方法,对大渡河双江口水电站河床覆盖层进行了8孔、106点的现场旁压试验,在对其进行统计分析的基础上建立了威布尔分布模型,依据试验数据对模型的参数进行了最小二乘估计,并对威布尔分布进行了拟合优度检验。依据现场勘查所得的级配曲线,通过20组室内模型试验探讨了旁压模量与模型密度和上覆压力的对应关系,得出了旁压模量与模型密度间服从对数关系的规律。在此基础上对深厚覆盖层的密度进行随机模拟,得到了覆盖层各亚层密度的模拟值,通过与勘探结果的对比,证明了该方法的实用性 相似文献
20.
Dian‐Qing Li Xiao‐Song Tang Kok‐Kwang Phoon Yi‐Feng Chen Chuang‐Bing Zhou 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2013,37(6):597-617
This paper aims to propose a procedure for modeling the joint probability distribution of bivariate uncertain data with a nonlinear dependence structure. First, the concept of dependence measures is briefly introduced. Then, both the Akaike Information Criterion and the Bayesian Information Criterion are adopted for identifying the best‐fit copula. Thereafter, simulation of copulas and bivariate distributions based on Monte Carlo simulation are presented. Practical application for serviceability limit state reliability analysis of piles is conducted. Finally, four load–test datasets of load–displacement curves of piles are used to illustrate the proposed procedure. The results indicate that the proposed copula‐based procedure can model and simulate the bivariate probability distribution of two curve‐fitting parameters underlying the load–displacement models of piles in a more general way. The simulated load–displacement curves using the proposed procedure are found to be in good agreement with the measured results. In most cases, the Gaussian copula, often adopted out of expedience without proper validation, is not the best‐fit copula for modeling the dependence structure underlying two curve‐fitting parameters. The conditional probability density functions obtained from the Gaussian copula differ considerably from those obtained from the best‐fit copula. The probabilities of failure associated with the Gaussian copula are significantly smaller than the reference solutions, which are very unconservative for pile safety assessment. If the strong negative correlation between the two curve‐fitting parameters is ignored, the scatter in the measured load–displacement curves cannot be simulated properly, and the probabilities of failure will be highly overestimated. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献