共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 265 毫秒
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太平庄河流域无水文观测站,属于无资料地区,根据《辽宁省中小河流(无资料地区)设计暴雨洪水计算方法》,对太平庄河流域的设计洪水采用典型频率设计和水位流量关系推求设计洪水,采取典型频率法对天然河道及非天然河道的设计洪水进行计算,并对计算成果进行合理性分析,旨在为做山洪灾害预测预警及分析评价提供科学依据。 相似文献
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在实际工作中,往往遇到工程所在地点洪水流量资料不足,或没有实测水文资料,又很难采用其它途径来解决洪水资料不足的问题。我国多数地区雨量资料较长,测站数目较多,这种情况下自然地就会提出这样一个问题:如何用暴雨资料推求设计洪水。通常采用频率计算的方法,求得指定频率的各种历时的设计暴雨量,然后通过典型暴雨进行缩放,得出设计暴雨过程,再进行产流、汇流计算,推求相应的洪水过程。 相似文献
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通过野外实地调查研究区洪水情况,选取可靠参证站实测洪水资料系列,运用调蓄经验单位线法、地区模比系数综合频率法、洪峰模数法估算研究区的设计洪水。并将计算结果进行对比分析,推荐采用地区洪峰模比系数综合频率曲线法计算的设计洪水成果。 相似文献
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Copula函数在分期设计洪水中的应用研究 总被引：6，自引：1，他引：5
分期设计洪水既要满足防洪标准,又能反映洪水的季节性变化特征.现行分期设计洪水模式假定各分期频率均等于防洪标准T的倒数,使得分期设计洪水值不能满足防洪标准的要求.本文选择合适的Copula函数构建汛期分期为三分期、边缘分布为PIII分布的分期设计洪水的联合分布.在假定分期设计洪水的联合重现期等于防洪标准T的前提下,推导基于Copula函数的分期设计洪水频率和防洪标准的关系,进而推求分期洪水设计值,并与现行分期设计洪水模式的计算成果相比较,分析论证了基于Copula函数分期设计洪水的合理性,从理论和方法上回答和解决现行分期设计洪水中存在的问题,为分期设计洪水研究提供了一种新的途径. 相似文献
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依据北江(珠江流域支流)流域6个水文测站年最大洪峰流量资料,分别用Top-kriging(拓扑克里格法)和普通克里格法进行区域洪水频率估计。采用均方根误差作为频率分布线型拟合优度指标。运用线性矩法进行单站洪水频率分析,确定10、50、100、1000年一遇设计洪水值。在此基础上,从Topkriging和普通克里格法设计洪水估计不确定性和相对线性矩法单站洪水频率的估计误差两个方面比较Top-kriging和普通克里格法。结果表明:(1)Top-kriging法是更好的线性无偏估计,相比普通克里格法更适合于区域洪水频率估计;(2)Top-kriging法设计洪水估计不确定性明显小于普通克里格法;(3)Top-kriging法设计洪水估计结果更接近线性矩法单站洪水频率分析结果。 相似文献
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一、引言在洪水频率分析中,通常习惯将历史洪水和实测序列中的特大洪水统称为洪水资料中的特异值。显然,将可靠的历史洪水资料和实测洪水资料加在一起参与洪水频率计算,可以减小抽样误差缩短频率曲线的外延幅度,对提 相似文献
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依据乌鲁木齐河实测洪水资料分析可知,当发生相同频率的洪水时,其时段洪量出现的几率并不与洪峰流量频率同步,将洪峰流量与时段洪量排序后,发现时段洪量的序号同洪峰序号有较大差异。但时段洪量频率分布应与洪峰流量频率分布有一定的相关性,在规划、设计、防洪调度等工作中,注重同频率设计洪水相关性和差异,并在宏观上开展对洪水的研究。 相似文献
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PDSI在甘肃中东部地区的修正和应用 总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2
依据PDSI的基本原理和方法,针对甘肃中东部地区的实际情况,从建模资料长度、站点密度、可能蒸散的计算、土壤田间持水量和径流计算等几个方面对原有模式进行了修正,建立了适用于该区的PDSI并确定了权重因子,计算了20个代表站的PDSI值,并与实际的旱情记载进行对照检验,结果表明,用修正后的PDSI计算的旱度值与实际灾情基本上吻合,能较好地反映出甘肃中东部地区的干旱程度,尤其是对一些重大旱段反映明显。在此基础上,进一步分析了干旱的基本特征,为防灾减灾提供科学依据。 相似文献
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An assessment of multidimensional flood vulnerability at the provincial scale in China based on the DEA method 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Dapeng Huang Renhe Zhang Zhiguo Huo Fei Mao Youhao E Wei Zheng 《Natural Hazards》2012,64(2):1575-1586
China suffers frequent and severe floods. A lot of studies have been done in the field of flood disaster, including flood vulnerability assessment. This paper develops assessment models of multidimensional flood vulnerability based on the data envelopment analysis method and identifies multidimensional flood vulnerability??population, death, agriculture and economy??at the provincial scale in China using flood damage data and socioeconomic statistical data from 2001 to 2010. Based on the characteristics of multidimensional flood vulnerability of each province, some suggestions for flood prevention and mitigation are suggested. The assessment models of multidimensional flood vulnerability are simple and can be used for vulnerability analysis of natural disaster at regional or national levels. The assessment of multidimensional flood vulnerability can provide multifaceted information that contributes to a deeper understanding of the flood vulnerability and provides a scientific base for the policy making and implementation of flood prevention and mitigation designs. 相似文献
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在分析历史降雨资料的基础上,建立流域内各雨量站点雨量与流域平均面雨量的相关关系。结合流域水文站分布图选出与流域面雨量相关性高且有区域代表性的雨量站作为遥测系统的关键测站,保证其稳定运行。利用定点定面关系分析方法,由流域内关键测站的时段雨量推求流域时段面雨量,并带入洪水预报模型进行洪水预报。该方法不依赖流域内全部测站的降雨信息,可有效解决流域内雨量站缺测或数据错误时的洪水预报问题。该方法可为无资料或资料短缺地区及新建水库因资金限制只能建设少量测站时的洪水预报提供参考。 相似文献
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苏中腹地湖相软土土性参数变异性统计描述 总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2
基于江苏中部某高速公路工程地质勘察所提供的大量室内试验测试数据,运用随机场理论,将土层剖面模拟为随机场而非传统意义上的随机变量,提出了基于随机场理论、考虑空间趋势分量的土性参数变异性统计方法,系统地统计分析了苏中腹地湖相软土土性参数的变异特性,对比了实验室物理性质指标参数、变形参数和强度参数变异性特征。统计结果表明,该地区软土实验室物理性质指标参数变异性较小,不存在明显的趋势分量,可用传统方法进行统计估计;实验室变形和强度参数存在明显的趋势分量,统计前需对数据进行回归分析和去趋势化处理,从而基于随机场理论进行统计分析。研究不仅提供了土性参数变异性统计的新方法,而且能对苏中地区工程建设提供必要的参考,为区域性软土土性参数随机场模型的建立打下了坚实的基础。 相似文献
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Elena Fernández Ana Colubi Gil González-Rodríguez Soledad Anadón 《Natural Hazards》2012,62(2):459-483
The importance of the historical information in flood analysis has previously been underlined. In this context, we present an integral methodology aimed at the establishment of return periods of different flood units on the unique basis of historical data. Specifically, the reconstruction of the flood chronology extended back to 1900, complemented with a new (historical data-based) event intensity index, and the return period estimation will be addressed. Since some of the historical data are collected from interviews and other sources with different degrees of precision and reliability, two kinds of uncertainty will be considered; namely the statistical variability and the imprecision. We propose an innovative methodology involving intervals (ranges), fuzzy sets, and weights to formalize and average the criteria that determine the importance of the different events. On the other hand, to take into account the statistical variability, we propose to estimate the return period in a flexible and efficient way by considering bootstrap confidence intervals. The methodology is particularly useful at ungauged, or partially gauged, flood inundation areas, where the existing flow gauge stations do not give the flood series at the point of interest. A case study developed in Spain is discussed. The results are supported by two recent events, which have been mapped at 1:5000 scale. 相似文献
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《International Geology Review》2012,54(11):1007-1016
A randomly oriented dike swarm in the Western Ghats region has been postulated to be the feeder dike swarm of the ～2 km thick sequence exposed in that region of the Deccan province, and interpreted as evidence for the lack of crustal extension before this major flood basalt event. An enormous, central shield volcano has also been postulated in the same region based on flow stratigraphic studies and the randomly oriented dikes. These interpretations are subject to numerous objections and the lack of crustal extension before Deccan volcanism is not supported by presently available data. Rift zones of the province and the western Indian continental margin remain highly probable source areas for large volumes of the Deccan lavas. 相似文献
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周斌 《中国地质灾害与防治学报》2011,22(2):61-68
甘肃省的自然地理、地质构造、气候条件、地形地貌等非常复杂,地质灾害非常严重,具有灾害种类多,分布范围广的特点,是我国地质灾害严重的地区之一。各种地质灾害的发生与汛期的关系密切,给百姓造成了很大的危害,其影响是巨大的。本文对甘肃省主要城市的地质灾害特征进行了分析,并有探讨性的提出了防治措施,目的旨在对城市的防灾减灾和经济建设提供参考。 相似文献
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The priority of flood management planning is physical victimization and focuses on taking structural measures. Although this approach is an accurate approach, more information is needed in implementing efficient precautionary and planning decisions. It is an indisputable fact that the existence of nothing that is not sustainable in nature cannot continue. Hence, it is necessary to implement a planning decision suitable for the structure of the population living in the region so that the continuity of the policies to be carried out against natural hazards of hydrometeorological origin such as a flood is ensured. How the socio-demographic structures affect the flood risk perception of 245 people living in the city center of Bayburt is examined in this study. It is the first research conducted for the province of Bayburt for this perspective. The participants were asked to fill a questionnaire containing 24 items and consisting of 2 sections. T test and one-way ANOVA (one-way analysis of variance) statistical methods were used to ascertain the difference between the responses of the participants to the questionnaire, based on their demographic structure. As the result of the study, significant differences were observed between the expressions depicting flood risk perception and the participant's age, income levels and educational background. In addition, it has been noted that there is a positive relationship between education and income levels and flood risk perception.
相似文献19.
河川基流量是水文水利分析计算、水资源评价、洪水分析、地下水径流特性分析中的重要内容。国内外河川基流量分割方法很多,不同方法的分割结果也不尽相同。通过对甘肃黄河流域洮河水系4个水文站,长江流域白龙江水系2个水文站、内陆河流域黑河水系3个水文站共计9站的1980～2000年20a的实测资料运用滤波算法对基流进行切割,根据年径流量运用PⅢ型曲线查出频率,再根据频率与基流建立模型,得到河川基流量计算的简便实用方法,提高山丘区地下水资源量评价的效率,细化水资源评价结果,便于推广使用。 相似文献
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