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1.
雪崩是冰冻圈内主要的自然灾害之一,严重威胁高寒山区内的交通廊道、能源输送和通信干线、矿区、牧区、旅游区等安全并造成基础设施毁坏和人畜死伤,阻碍山区社会经济的可持续发展。随着气候变化和人类活动不断向高寒山区扩展,暴露在雪崩危险之下的人口及基础设施日趋增多,雪崩的风险显著增强。为保障山区的社会经济可持续发展,对雪崩灾害防治管理需求不断增加。在梳理我国1960年以来主要雪崩研究进展基础上,结合世界各地雪崩研究成果,总结了雪崩的影响因素和区域规律、雪崩的形成与运动机理、雪崩监测预警、雪崩风险评估和雪崩工程防治等方面的进展和亟须研究的前沿问题以及科学难点。同时本文论述了气候变化对雪崩活动的影响,以及人类活动与雪崩活动之间的相互影响,展望了未来雪崩防灾减灾的需求并提出对策,推动雪崩防灾减灾研究。 相似文献
2.
梅里雪山雪崩多发,但缺乏系统监测和研究。1991年1月3日梅里雪山发生了造成中日联合登山队17名队员遇难的巨大雪崩事件。2019年安装在明永冰川末端附近的物候相机拍摄到临近梅里雪山明永冰川的一次雪崩事件。两次事件类型不同,这对我们进行雪崩预测预警有良好的指示作用。本研究以RAMMS(Rapid Mass Movement System)模型为手段,利用经验值和经验公式确定影响模拟结果的主要模型参数和积雪可能断裂深度,在优化分析的基础上,对两次雪崩事件进行重建,定量分析雪崩堆积量、堆积范围等。结果显示:1991年雪崩共持续了192s,雪崩体从海拔5730m处断裂,沿坡面崩塌而下最终堆积在海拔约5000m的冰川粒雪盆地区,形成面积为0.6km^(2),体积约67×10^(4)m^(3)的堆积体。2019年雪崩共持续了158s,雪崩流最大高度35.91m,最大速度79.34m·s,堆积量76.2×10^(4)m^(3),雪崩堆积范围与野外观测到的一致。两次雪崩事件发生地位于雪崩极高危险区和高危险区,在一定程度上验证了风险评估的准确性。研究结果可为梅里雪山地区未来潜在雪崩灾害的风险评估提供依据,为雪崩预测预警提供良好的参考。 相似文献
3.
Grant Statham Pascal Haegeli Ethan Greene Karl Birkeland Clair Israelson Bruce Tremper Chris Stethem Bruce McMahon Brad White John Kelly 《Natural Hazards》2018,90(2):663-691
This conceptual model of avalanche hazard identifies the key components of avalanche hazard and structures them into a systematic, consistent workflow for hazard and risk assessments. The method is applicable to all types of avalanche forecasting operations, and the underlying principles can be applied at any scale in space or time. The concept of an avalanche problem is introduced, describing how different types of avalanche problems directly influence the assessment and management of the risk. Four sequential questions are shown to structure the assessment of avalanche hazard, namely: (1) What type of avalanche problem(s) exists? (2) Where are these problems located in the terrain? (3) How likely is it that an avalanche will occur? and (4) How big will the avalanche be? Our objective was to develop an underpinning for qualitative hazard and risk assessments and address this knowledge gap in the avalanche forecasting literature. We used judgmental decomposition to elicit the avalanche forecasting process from forecasters and then described it within a risk-based framework that is consistent with other natural hazards disciplines. 相似文献
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The physical risk from snow avalanches poses a serious threat to mountain backcountry travelers. Avalanche risk is primarily managed by (1) assessing avalanche hazard through analysis of the local weather, snowpack, and recent avalanche activity and (2) selecting terrain that limits exposure to the identified hazard. Professional ski guides have a tremendous wealth of knowledge about using terrain to manage avalanche risk, but their expertise is tacit, which makes it difficult for them to explicitly articulate the underlying decision rules. To make this existing expertise more broadly accessible, this study examines whether it is possible to derive quantitative measures for avalanche terrain severity and condition-dependent terrain guidance directly from observed terrain selection of professional guides. We equipped lead guides at Mike Wiegele Helicopter Skiing with GPS tracking units during the 2014/2015 and 2015/2016 winters creating a dataset of 10,592 high-resolution tracked ski runs. We used four characteristics—incline, vegetation, down-slope curvature (convexities/concavities), and cross-slope curvature (gullies/ridges)—to describe the skied terrain and employed a mixed-effects ordered logistic regression model to examine the relationship between the character of most severe avalanche terrain skied on a day and the associated field-validated avalanche hazard ratings. Patterns in the regression parameter estimates reflected the existing understanding of how terrain is selected to manage avalanche risk well: the guides skied steeper, less dense vegetation, and more convoluted slopes during times of lower avalanche hazard. Avalanche terrain severity scores derived from the parameter estimates compared well to terrain previously zoned according to the Avalanche Terrain Exposure Scale. Using a GIS implementation of the regression analysis, we created avalanche condition-dependent maps that provide insights into what type of terrain guides deemed acceptable for skiing under different avalanche hazard conditions. These promising results highlight the potential of tracking guides’ terrain selection decisions as they manage avalanche hazard for the development of evidence-based avalanche terrain ratings and decision aids for professional and recreational backcountry travelers. 相似文献
6.
Dendrochronological reconstruction of snow avalanche activity in the Lahul Himalaya,Northern India 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Mass wasting and avalanche events substantially impact the landscape morphology and consequently human habitation throughout
the Himalaya. There is, however, a paucity of snow avalanche documentation for the region. The application of dendrochronologic
research methods introduces a sensitive approach to document the recurrence of snow avalanche events in a region where historical
records are either non-existent or difficult to access. An exploratory dendrochronologic study was undertaken in the Lahul
Himalaya of Northern India during the summer of 2006. Included within the fieldwork was an assessment of avalanche track morphology
to enable identification of the slope characteristics that might be associated with an increase in avalanche activity. Thirty-six
trees growing on the Ratoli avalanche track were sampled. The oldest tree was a Cedrus deodara with a pith date of 1950. A tree-ring-derived avalanche response curve highlights four avalanche events that occurred from
1972 to 2006. The successful scientific results based on the application of the method used provide the basis for local planners
to quantify slope failure hazards in forested areas throughout the western Himalaya. 相似文献
7.
Snow avalanches are a major natural hazard in the cryosphere. It seriously threatens transportation corridors, energy transmission and communication lines, mining and touristic areas in the cold mountainous regions and often causes the destruction of infrastructure and human casualties, hindering the sustainable development of society and economy in mountainous areas. Under climate change and the expansion of human activities to alpine mountains, more population and infrastructure will expose to the risk of avalanches. In order to ensure the sustainable development in mountainous areas, the demand for the prevention and management of avalanche disasters is increasing. Based on the review of the main avalanche research progress in China since 1960 and the avalanche research results all over the world, this paper summarized the progress on the influencing factors and regional distribution of avalanche activities, avalanche formation and movement mechanism, avalanche monitoring and early warning, avalanche risk assessment and engineering prevention, as well as the frontier problems and scientific difficulties that need to be studied. In addition, the impact of climate change on avalanche activities and the interaction between human activities and avalanche activities are discussed. By looking forward to the future needs of avalanche disaster prevention and reduction, including the countermeasures, the research on avalanche in China is promoted. © 2022 by the Author(s). 相似文献
8.
Automated detection of snow avalanches is an important tool for avalanche forecasting and for assessing the effectiveness of avalanche control measures at bad visibility. Avalanche detection systems are usually based on infrasound, seismic, or radar signals. Within this study, we compared three different types of avalanche detection systems: one avalanche radar, one infrasound array system consisting of four infrasound sensors, and a newly developed single sensor infrasound system. A special focus is given to the new single sensor system, which is a low cost, easy to install system, originally designed for the detection of debris flows and debris floods. Within this work, we analysed how this single sensor system could be adapted to detect also snow avalanches. All three systems were installed close to a road near Ischgl (Tyrol, Austria) at the avalanche-exposed Paznaun Valley. The valley is endangered by two avalanche paths which are controlled by several avalanche towers. The radar system detected avalanches accurately and reliably but was limited to the particular avalanche path towards which the radar beam was directed. The infrasound array could detect avalanches from all surrounding avalanche paths, however, with a higher effort for installation. The newly tested single infrasound sensor system was significantly cheaper and easier to install than the other two systems. It could also detect avalanches form all directions, although without information about the direction. In summary, each of the three different systems was able to successfully detect avalanches and had its particular strengths and weaknesses, which should be considered according to the specific requirements of a particular practical application. 相似文献
9.
为了了解青藏高原察达高速远程滑坡的运动过程与形成机理,运用遥感测绘、无人机地形测绘和现场勘查资料对滑坡进行分区,对滑坡形成机理进行研究,并利用PFC2D数值模拟对地震工况下滑坡运动过程进行模拟.将察达高速远程滑坡分为源区,流通区和堆积区;数值模拟结果得到滑坡平均运动速度为15~20 m/s,运动时间150 s,最大运动距离为2 800 m.察达滑坡为地震条件下诱发的高速远程滑坡,源区砾岩对上部堆积体后缘铲刮推移,使得上部堆积体产生整体变形,其运动过程可分为崩滑→铲刮→滑移→堆积4个阶段. 相似文献
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Snow avalanches are a significant hazard in mountainous environments around the world. This paper investigates the major February 1986 avalanche cycle that occurred in the western United States, and broadly analyzes the avalanche, snowpack, and weather conditions at twenty sites. These analyses suggest that the avalanche cycle resulted from the interaction of a relatively `normal' snowpack with an exceptional storm event, which was particularly noteworthy for the amount of precipitation it produced. Composited 500-hPa anomaly maps show the event resulted from an uncommonly persistent blocking pattern that resulted in a strong zonal flow and copious moisture being funneled over the western United States. Understanding severe and widespread avalanche cycles may improve our long-term forecasting of these events, and help mitigate theresulting avalanche activity. 相似文献
12.
公路崩塌灾害等级划分初步研究 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
崩塌灾害等级划分是进行灾情预测和制定应急预案的重要依据。不同领域由于研究目的、研究对象及研究方法等方面的差异,进行崩塌灾害等级划分时采用的主要指标及方法也各有不同。本文针对公路的特点,结合公路交通运输的实际情况,选择崩塌规模与交通量作为评估公路崩塌灾害灾情大小的主要参数和灾害等级划分指标。根据崩塌规模和交通量作用于公路的规律,通过理论研究,建立了崩塌灾害评估指标的分级标准。最终建立了公路崩塌灾害灾度计算公式,提出了以灾度大小作为公路崩塌灾害等级划分的标准。 相似文献
13.
This paper presents an assessment of the avalanche hazard potential and the resulting risks on mountain roads for a 38.7-km-long
section of road no 76 (Siglufjarearvegur) in northern Iceland following a regional scale approach developed in the Alps. The
assessment of the individual avalanche death risk proved applicable to distinguish areas of avalanche hazard with a risk above
the accepted level, which should be given priority in following detailed investigations and the planning of possible protective
measures, from road sections where the avalanche death risk is low and accepted according to international practice. The cumulative
individual and collective avalanche death risks in the investigated road section provide a comparable measure for assessing
the avalanche hazard both within the Icelandic public road network and on an international scale. The case study on road no
76 in northern Iceland shows that a standardised regional scale risk-based approach is practical to determine, analyse and
assess the avalanche hazard situation on mountain roads in Iceland and guarantees comprehensible, reproducible and comparable
results as a basis for a sustainable planning of measures. 相似文献
14.
汶川地震触发文家沟高速远程滑坡-碎屑流成因机理分析 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
文家沟高速远程滑坡-碎屑流位于映秀—北川断裂带与灌县—安县断裂带夹持的文家沟向斜断块中,地震断裂的强烈活动引起的振动效应是形成滑坡的先决条件。滑坡源区顶端与文家沟沟口高差约1360m,突兀山体下临深切峡谷的地形使地震动荷载在山脊部位的放大效应显著,并直接导致坡体破坏;滑坡源区的地震动加速度3分量峰值分别为aEW=2.4g,aNS=2.3g,aUP=1.2g。D2gn观雾山组石灰岩斜坡具有强度渐进式分层结构,坡体表层以下约50m内的结构相对松散的残坡积层～新鲜岩体上部无法抵抗地震纵横波的周期性拉压与剪切耦合作用,被切割成为初始滑体;滑体在第八级台地边缘高位剪出后,在文家沟上游地区最高滑移速度约介于93m.s-1～122m.s-1之间。滑体上部的干碎屑流在两处路径转折端瞬间压缩沟谷内的圈闭气体,形成明显的"气垫效应",滑体下部泥石流底层液化和颗粒有效动摩擦系数随剪切速度增大而减小的效应都是导致碎屑流体高速远程滑移的关键;同时,碎屑物流通过程中还伴有明显的岸坡铲刮与翻越效应、以及树木摧削效应。汶川地震后截至2009年9月,降雨诱发碎屑堆积物形成多次泥石流,反映了地震地质灾害的链生性和长期性。 相似文献
15.
基底刮铲效应对岩石碎屑流停积过程的影响 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
岩石碎屑流在运移停积过程中,对运移路径存在强烈的刮铲效应。首先分析总结了碎屑流基底刮铲效应的特征,然后采用二维颗粒离散元模拟方法模拟岩石碎屑流水平基底上刮铲。模拟试验证明了基底刮铲效应可以增强岩石碎屑流在水平面上的运移停积能力。通过进一步研究水平基底物理力学性质和分层情况对刮铲效应和岩石碎屑流运移过程的影响,证明了减小基底物质的强度会增强刮铲效应,但基底表层松散堆积物质低密度、低强度的特点才是影响岩石碎屑流最大运移堆积距离的关键因素,并具有类似润滑剂的特性;相对地,基底底层高强度、高密度物质的强度变化对最大运移距离影响很小。 相似文献
16.
Peter Höller 《Natural Hazards》2007,43(1):81-101
At all times natural hazards like torrents or avalanches pose a threat to settlements and infrastructures in the Austrian
Alps. Since 1950 more than 1,600 persons have been killed by avalanches in Austria, which is on average approximately 30 fatalities
per year. In particular, the winter periods 1950/1951 and 1953/1954 stand out with more than 100 fatalities. Those events
led to an increase of avalanche control programmes in the following decades. While from the 1950s to the 1970s emphasis was
placed on permanent measures (technical structures, afforestations, hazard zoning ...) additional programmes such as avalanche
warning and forecasting have supplemented avalanche control measures in the last decades. Current research is focused on avalanche
simulation, risk management and the influence of the forest on avalanche formation. An important area of future research is
to develop improved methods for avalanche forecasting and to intensify the investigation of the dynamics of avalanches. 相似文献
17.
Reported avalanche fatalities in the United States increased markedly through the latter half of the twentieth century, a
result of the increasing popularity of winter sports. Despite this increase, the literature concerning US avalanche fatalities
is sparse. This paper presents a comparison of three US databases containing avalanche fatality information: Storm Data, the West Wide Avalanche Network (WWAN) dataset, and the National Avalanche Database (NAD). The frequency of avalanche fatalities,
their temporal trends, spatial distributions, and the demographic characteristics of the victims were analyzed in each database
for the years 1998–2009 for the US mountainous west. The data were then pooled to arrive at an estimate of avalanche fatality
frequency in the United States for the study period. While the results indicate a considerable amount of overlap between the
datasets, Storm Data reports fewer avalanche fatalities than both the WWAN and NAD datasets. All three datasets report a maximum of fatalities
in January and display three spatial maxima: the Rocky Mountains of west-central Colorado, the intermountain region from central
Utah through Idaho to west-central Montana, and the northern Cascade Ranges of Washington; however, a large void appears in
the Storm Data records in the vicinity of the Montana maximum. These maxima result from a juxtaposition of avalanche hazard in these mountainous
environments with a high concentration of winter sports activities. 相似文献
18.
Two hundred and seventeen avalanche reports from Switzerland and the Tyrol were used to investigate the influence of rescue method on the survival and burial time of avalanche victims. The probability of survival for victims rescued by their companion was higher (75, n=113) than for people found by an organised search team (30, n=104). Burial time and burial depth are the main factors, which decide whether a person is recovered dead or alive. People who were still alive were recovered significantly earlier and from a shallower burial depth than people who died in an avalanche. There is also a significant difference in the burial time dependent on whether companions or rescue teams carry out the search. In localising the site by means of sight/call or avalanche beacon by companions there is a clear relation between burial time and burial depth. For rescue teams, the relation between burial time and area of the avalanche is important. When working with avalanche dogs or probe lines there should be a clear correlation between burial time and area of the avalanche For dog teams arriving at the scene, there is a relation between search/excavation time and burial depth. Search time for tour skiers based on the information given will always be limited due to the burial depth of the victim. This means that the digging tools used are very important. The greatest problems facing rescue teams are limited transport capacity and the organisation of the whole mission over a large area. Therefore, speed and efficiency are of the utmost importance, when organising any search. 相似文献
19.
Landscape and sedimentary response to catastrophic debris avalanches, western Taranaki, New Zealand 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
Catastrophic volcanic debris avalanches reshape volcanic edifices with up to half of pre-collapse cone volumes being removed. Deposition from this debris avalanche deposit often fills and inundates the surrounding landscape and may permanently change the distribution of drainage networks. On the weakly-incised Mt. Taranaki ring-plain, volcanic debris avalanche deposits typically form a large, wedge shape (in plan view), over all flat-lying fans. Following volcanic debris avalanches a period of intense re-sedimentation commonly begins on ring-plain areas, particularly in wet or temperate climates. This is exacerbated by large areas of denuded landscape, ongoing instability in the scarp/source region, damming of river/stream systems, and in some cases inherent instability of the volcanic debris avalanche deposits. In addition, on Mt. Taranaki, the collapse of a segment of the cone by volcanic debris avalanche often generates long periods of renewed volcanism, generating large volumes of juvenile tephra onto unstable and unvegetated slopes, or construction of new domes with associated rock falls and block-and-ash flows. The distal ring-plain impact from these post-debris avalanche conditions and processes is primarily accumulation of long run-out debris flow and hyperconcentrated flow deposits with a variety of lithologies and sedimentary character. Common to these post-debris avalanche units is evidence for high-water-content flows that are typically non-cohesive. Hence sedimentary variations in these units are high in lateral and longitudinal exposure in relation to local topography. The post-collapse deposits flank large-scale fans and hence similar lithological and chronological sequences can form on widely disparate sectors of the ring plain. These deposits on Mt. Taranaki provide a record of landscape response and ring-plain evolution in three stages that divide the currently identified Warea Formation: 1) the deposition of broad fans of material adjacent to the debris avalanche unit; 2) channel formation and erosion of Stage 1 deposits, primarily at the contact between debris avalanche deposits and the Stage 1 deposits and the refilling of these channels; and 3) the development of broad tabular sheet flows on top of the debris avalanche, leaving sediments between debris avalanche mounds. After a volcanic debris avalanche, these processes represent an ever changing and evolving hazard-scape with hazard maps needing to be regularly updated to take account of which stage the sedimentary system is in. 相似文献
20.
An avalanche occurrence is a result of the structural collapse of the snow cover in the upper reaches of mountain slopes in the snowbound belt. They take a heavy toll, year after year and property worth millions is destroyed. Besides loss of lives, the avalanches also destroy forest and disrupt road communication, thereby hindering the hill area development and affecting the Defense of the nation.The paper brings out the cause of avalanche formation, magnitude of their destruction power and the techniques being followed in India by Snow and Avalanche Study Establishment (SASE), a DRDO Laboratory, for mitigating the avalanche disasters in Western Himalayan Region for the Defense forces. The authors suggest that for mitigating the avalanche disasters, an integrated plan at national level involving Defense forces and state governments should be drawn. 相似文献