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1.
The Urban Seismic Risk index (USRi) published in a previous article (Carreño et al., Nat Hazards 40:137–172, 2007) is a composite indicator that measures risk from an integrated perspective and guides decision-making for identifying the main interdisciplinary factors of vulnerability to be reduced or intervened. The first step of the method is the evaluation of the potential physical damage (hard approach) as a result of the convolution of the seismic hazard with the physical vulnerability of buildings and infrastructure. Subsequently, a set of social context conditions that aggravate the physical effects is also considered (soft approach). According to this procedure, the physical risk index is evaluated for each unit of analysis from existing loss scenarios, whereas the total risk index is obtained by multiplying the former index by an impact factor using an aggravating coefficient, based on variables associated with the socio-economic conditions of each unit of analysis. The USRi has been developed using the underlying holistic and multi-hazard approach of the Urban Risk Index framework proposed for the evaluation of disaster risk in different megacities worldwide. This article presents the sensitivity analysis of the index to different parameters such as input data, weights and transformation functions used for the scaling or normalization of variables. This analysis has been performed using the Monte Carlo simulation to validate the robustness of this composite indicator, understanding as robustness how the cities maintain the ranking as well as predefined risk level ranges, when compared with the deterministic results of risk. Results are shown for different cities of the world. 相似文献
2.
Determination of the priorities for improvement of vulnerable urban fabrics based on a comprehensive assessment is among the main desires of local governments in earthquake-prone countries like Iran. However, in most countries, the comprehensive and absolute estimation of seismic risk is not possible due to shortages of the required data. In this paper, a new method is proposed for estimation of the risk through combination of hazard, vulnerability and response capacity indicators. Also, new evaluation methods based on relative scheme are presented for simple quantification of indicators in urban areas suffering from limited or insufficient database. For this purpose, important vulnerability parameters at urban areas are classified into physical, human life and socioeconomic groups. New hazard factors are also defined to evaluate the risk through combination of each vulnerability indicator and its directly related hazard factor. In addition, the capacity of response activities is accounted for in the model using planning, resource, accessibility and evacuation capacity indicators. The post-earthquake reduction of response capacity is also measured by means of reduction factors. Then, total relative seismic risk index is defined and calculated at each urban division (or zone) by weighted combination of the mentioned risk and response capacity indicators. This index represents the state of the risk in each zone in comparison with the others. The proposed method is applied to assess the earthquake risk at 22 municipal districts of Tehran. The results show that physical, human life and overall risk indices in district 15 of the city are considerably greater than the others. Meanwhile, in socioeconomic aspects, district 6 has the highest risk. Also, the analysis of the results demonstrates the major contribution of the response capacity term to determine the mitigation priorities. Finally, the results are compared with JICA (2000), using the same data, to show the efficiency of the proposed model. It is shown that the introduced method can significantly improve the results of the risk estimation and mitigation priorities. 相似文献
3.
Integrated risk assessment method of waterlog disaster in Huaihe River Basin of China 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
Ju-Liang Jin Juan Fu Yi-Ming Wei Shang-Ming Jiang Yu-Liang Zhou Li Liu You-Zhen Wang Cheng-Guo Wu 《Natural Hazards》2015,75(2):155-178
Regional waterlog disaster integrated risk system, affected by natural, social, and economic systems and its combination relationship, is a complex system with certain structure and function. Waterlog disaster integrated risk results from the combined effects of regional environment, impact factors, vulnerability, and disaster-reducing capability of flood hazards in the drainage area. Waterlog disaster integrated risk system can be divided into four subsystems of hazard, vulnerability, disaster-reducing capability, and disaster conditions. Evaluation indexes are selected using fuzzy analytic hierarchy process method, and the evaluation index system is established. Then, the waterlog disaster integrated risk evaluation model is proposed based on set pair analysis method. Taking Huaihe river in Anhui Province of China as the typical area in this study, the results show that the proposed approach is able to obtain the spatial distribution characteristics of waterlog hazard, vulnerability, mitigation capabilities, and integrated disaster risk within the study area. From the quantitative point of view, identification of the areas with high flood risk can provide a scientific basis for the flood management and technical support. 相似文献
4.
Jin Ju-Liang Fu Juan Wei Yi-Ming Jiang Shang-Ming Zhou Yu-Liang Liu Li Wang You-Zhen Wu Cheng-Guo 《Natural Hazards》2014,75(2):155-178
Regional waterlog disaster integrated risk system, affected by natural, social, and economic systems and its combination relationship, is a complex system with certain structure and function. Waterlog disaster integrated risk results from the combined effects of regional environment, impact factors, vulnerability, and disaster-reducing capability of flood hazards in the drainage area. Waterlog disaster integrated risk system can be divided into four subsystems of hazard, vulnerability, disaster-reducing capability, and disaster conditions. Evaluation indexes are selected using fuzzy analytic hierarchy process method, and the evaluation index system is established. Then, the waterlog disaster integrated risk evaluation model is proposed based on set pair analysis method. Taking Huaihe river in Anhui Province of China as the typical area in this study, the results show that the proposed approach is able to obtain the spatial distribution characteristics of waterlog hazard, vulnerability, mitigation capabilities, and integrated disaster risk within the study area. From the quantitative point of view, identification of the areas with high flood risk can provide a scientific basis for the flood management and technical support.
相似文献5.
塌岸灾害风险与塌岸灾害特点及人类社会经济活动密切相关,其风险评价涉及诸多因素.将信息量法应用于塌岸灾害风险预测库,建立了相关的信息量模型及评价指标;以重庆万州区和平广场地段为例,在三峡水库蓄水条件下,分别对塌岸灾害的危险性、易损性、风险性进行了综合预测研究.研究结果表明,塌岸评价指标选取合理,塌岸高危险性的单元与不良地质现象、库岸侵蚀和库岸类型密切相关;塌岸灾害易损性与人类社会经济活动及不良地质现象相关;塌岸高风险区主要集中在塌岸高危险性及高易损性单元,或受人口、建筑物分布影响的塌岸中等危险性的单元. 相似文献
6.
This paper assesses the risk to people and property from lava flow hazard in the Vesuvian area of Italy using a Geographical Information System (GIS). The intense urbanisation and dense population near Mt. Vesuvius make the area very hazardous. Due to the large amount of available data, GIS is an essential tool to facilitate risk evaluation and constant monitoring of the zone. This analysis is based mainly on a lava flow hazard map of Mt. Vesuvius, determined from volcanic activity between 1631 and 1944. A land-use zonation map of the area was created in order to show areal distribution of the resources, built-up centres and population. For each of the 17 municipalities in the area, demographic and urban data were entered into the GIS database and linked to each appropriate geographic unit in order to create a set of reference maps at the 1:50 000 scale. The lava flow hazard map was overlain on the land use map, and spatial and numerical information of risk were extracted from the resulting maps. 相似文献
7.
泰莱盆地岩溶地面塌陷始发于20世纪60年代，至今岩溶塌陷地质灾害仍不断发生，造成了日趋严重的经济损失和社会影响。本文将泰莱盆地作为整体研究对象，在对工作区地质环境条件进行充分分析的基础上，选取了包括岩溶塌陷影响因子及能反应社会影响的易损因子（包括灾损敏感因子和抗损强度因子）在内的共计12项指标作为岩溶塌陷评价要素，建立了研究区风险性评价体系；然后，利用层次分析法（AHP）计算各评价要素的权重，结合已有资料绘制各指标分级图并分别赋值；最后，利用MAPGIS软件叠加计算风险性指标，依据风险性分级标准进行研究区岩溶塌陷风险性评价分级区划。结果表明:高风险区主要分布在泰安市城区火车站、訾家灌庄、东羊娄—旧县一带；莱芜市大王庄镇孤山—后枯河及铁矿区孟公清、泉河一带，这些区域多位于水源地周边或矿山企业排水区，高强度的抽排地下水是岩溶塌陷发生的最主要的致塌因素。 相似文献
8.
岩溶塌陷地质灾害的评价方法探讨 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
利用层次分析法确定了岩溶塌陷地质灾害危险性评价指标的权重,并采用综合指数模型计算了岩溶塌陷地质灾害的危险性指数,通过量化的危险性指数分级,划分了岩溶塌陷的危险性大小,这种方法对今后地质灾害危险性评估中岩溶塌陷的评价具有一定指导意义。 相似文献
9.
黄河上游地区崩塌滑坡泥石流地质灾害风险评价 总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5
本文在对黄河上游地区崩塌、滑坡、泥石流进行野外地质调查和资料收集的基础上，确定了灾害风险评价的主要影响要素和指标体系，进行了以县（市、旗）为单元的风险评价。评价单元共116个。研究区地质灾害风险共分为5级，高风险单元3个，较高风险单元8个，中等风险单元24个，较低风险单元54个，低风险单元27个。风险评价结果表明，评价区内不同地区崩滑流灾害风险程度相对差异较大，总体分布特点是中部地区较高，北部和南部较低。从风险指数的结果来看，有些风评价单元的风险指数非常接近临界值，一旦危险性条件和易损性条件发生改变，将会引起地质灾害的风险级别发生变化。因此，在西部大开发的进程中，无论是在开发资源还是进行各种工程活动，都应注意保护环境，避免地质灾害向着严重的方向发展。 相似文献
10.
探讨了城市泥石流风险评价的系统方法,该方法包括泥石流扇形地危险区划、城市易损性分析和城市泥石流风险评价三个主要内容。泥石流堆积扇危险区划是基于数值模拟计算出的泥深和流速分布图进行叠合完成的。以美国高分辨率的“快鸟”卫星影像为数据源,完成了研究区的城市土地覆盖类型遥感解译,在此基础上完成了城市泥石流易损性分析,应用地理信息系统提供的统计和分析工具,完成了研究区泥石流风险评价。该风险区划图可用于指导对泥石流易泛区的不同风险地带的土地利用进行规划和决策,从而达到规避和减轻灾害的目的,也为生活在泥石流危险区的城市居民提供有关灾害风险信息,以作避难和灾害防治的依据。 相似文献