共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 30 毫秒
1.
2.
本文扼要介绍了灰色系统的基本理论、建模方法和检验精度的分析方法。并以四平市地下水动态特征为例,建立GM(1,1)包络模型,进行了地下水位拟合和外推预报。结果表明,GM(1,1)模型计算简单,是一种实用的预报方法,预报结果比较可靠。 相似文献
3.
灰色模型的优化方法及其在水文预报中的应用 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
论述了灰色ＧＭ（１．１）模型的建立、计算及精确度检验等方法。给出了模型优化的一种途径，即优化参数的方法，并以济南市岩溶泉随时间变化的水位作为实例进行了具体的预报。 相似文献
4.
5.
论述了灰色ＧＭ（１．１）模型的建立、计算及精确度检验等方法。给出了模型优化的一种途径，即优化参数的方法，并以济南市岩溶泉随时间变化的水位作为实例进行了具体的预报。 相似文献
6.
通过利用灰色理论预测柳河水系的干旱年,阐述了灰色理论预测随机水文要素的基本方法。并对预报模型进行了精度检验。 相似文献
7.
数据驱动模型在渭河流域来水预报中的开发和应用研究 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
现有的水文预报方法分为过程驱动模型方法和数据驱动模型方法两大类,近年来随着水文数据获取能力和计算能力的发展,数据驱动模型在水文预报中受到了广泛的关注,回归模型、神经网络模型均属此类.本文首先采用距离平方反比与泰森多边形相结合的方法,由雨量站观测到的降水量求得渭河流域各四级区的降水量,然后采用自回归模型结合年～月～旬逐级修正的方法对渭河流域10个四级区进行降水预报,采用降水～气温～径流多元线性回归模型对渭河流域28个水库进行径流预报,取得了较好的效果. 相似文献
8.
切沟侵蚀预报研究进展与展望 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
切沟侵蚀是重要的土壤侵蚀类型,是小流域侵蚀泥沙的主要来源。准确预报切沟侵蚀空间分布及其强度的时空变化,对于优化小流域水土保持措施配置、维持区域粮食产能和保障区域生态安全,具有重要的理论和实践意义。地形临界模型、敏感性评价、切沟形态特征经验关系、侵蚀预报模型和景观演变模型是预测切沟发育部位、评价发育概率或估算切沟侵蚀强度的主要方法。从这些方法的基本思路与原理出发,系统分析了相关研究进展,对比了研究结果的差异并评价了各方法的优缺点。未来研究需聚焦切沟监测方法优化与数据积累、切沟演变过程与数据可比性、预报方法遴选及区域适宜性、经验模型研发与参数区域分异,以及切沟侵蚀机理研究与过程模型研发,从而为促进切沟侵蚀预报研究、阻控切沟侵蚀、保障区域社会经济可持续发展提供技术支撑。 相似文献
9.
在贝叶斯理论框架下,根据一种可结合多个水文模型给出模拟或预报结果的IBUNE方法探讨了水文模型的输入、参数以及结构的不确定性问题。将SCEM-UA算法和EM算法嵌入新安江和TOPMODEL水文模型用于参数优化和模型平均,进而将输入与参数的综合不确定性处理后得到的预报量后验分布进行多模型综合,据此对水文模型的不确定性及其对水文模拟结果的影响进行评价。以湖南洣水流域龙家山水文站以上集水区域为例进行了应用研究,结果表明,IBUNE方法能够有效估计水文模型的不确定性,并能给出合理的概率预报区间。 相似文献
10.
基于最优加权组合模型及高斯－牛顿法的滑坡变形预测研究 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
在对最优加权组合理论和高斯－牛顿法优化非线性模型参数的方法研究的基础上,依托于洒勒山滑坡的实际变形监测资料,建立了该滑坡变形预测的3个非线性预测模型:指数模型、Verhulst模型和灰色GM（1,1）模型;利用最优加权组合理论建立了洒勒山滑坡的最优加权组合预测模型,并运用高斯－牛顿法对各单一模型和组合模型的参数进行了优化。通过对比分析得出:组合模型的预测精度高于任何单一模型的预测精度;参数优化后各单一模型的预测精度都有不同程度的提高;参数优化后的组合模型预测精度是最高的。因此,综合运用最优组合理论和高斯－牛顿法处理滑坡预测预报模型,是提高滑坡预测预报精度的行之有效的方法。 相似文献
11.
滑坡灾害空间预测研究 总被引：14，自引：2，他引：14
介绍了滑坡灾害空间预测的常用理论和方法、研究特点和适用范围，指出了区域滑坡空间预测、单体斜坡稳定性预测和滑坡灾害风险研究的发展趋势；以三峡库区巴东县黄土坡区斜坡稳定性区划为例，用神经网络模型和信息量模型两种方法进行了斜坡稳定性预测，取得了满意的效果。 相似文献
12.
为了考虑预见期内降水预报的不确定性对洪水预报的影响,采用中国气象局、美国环境预测中心和欧洲中期天气预报中心的TIGGE(THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble)降水预报数据驱动GR4J水文模型,开展三峡入库洪水集合概率预报,分析比较BMA、Copula-BMA、EMOS、M-BMA 4种统计后处理方法的有效性。结果表明:4种统计后处理方法均能提供一个合理可靠的预报置信区间;其期望值预报精度相较于确定性预报有所提高,尤其是水量误差显著减小;M-BMA方法概率预报效果最佳,它能够考虑预报分布的异方差性,不需要进行正态变换,结构简单,应用灵活。 相似文献
13.
In this paper two different methods of how to handle topography in geoid determination is investigated. First method employs the Residual Terrain Model (RTM) remove-restore technique and yields the quasigeoid, whereas the second method is the classical Helmert condensation method, yielding the geoid. Both methods were used with the Earth Gravity Model (1996) (EGM96) geopotential model as reference, and results are compared to precise Global Positioning System (GPS) levelling networks in Scandinavia, especially an accurate GPS data set from the very rugged Sognefjord region, where the topography was represented by either a detailed (100 m) or a coarse (1000 m) digital terrain model. The inclusion of bathymetry in the terrain model was also investigated.Even if two different methods were used, they produced almost identical results at the 5 cm level in the mountains, but small systematic differences exist. Results show the importance of comparing the right types of geoid (classical geoid or quasigeoid), since differences in residuals are significant. 相似文献
14.
15.
16.
Makarand A. Kulkarni Sunil Patil G. V. Rama P. N. Sen 《Journal of Earth System Science》2008,117(4):457-463
Prediction of wind speed in the atmospheric boundary layer is important for wind energy assessment, satellite launching and
aviation, etc. There are a few techniques available for wind speed prediction, which require a minimum number of input parameters.
Four different statistical techniques, viz., curve fitting, Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average Model (ARIMA), extrapolation
with periodic function and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) are employed to predict wind speed. These methods require wind
speeds of previous hours as input. It has been found that wind speed can be predicted with a reasonable degree of accuracy
using two methods, viz., extrapolation using periodic curve fitting and ANN and the other two methods are not very useful. 相似文献
17.
18.
The numerical integration of the stress–strain relationship is an important part of many finite element code used in geotechnical engineering. The integration of elasto-plastic models for unsaturated soils poses additional challenges associated to the presence of suction as an extra constitutive variable with respect to traditional saturated soil models. In this contribution, a range of explicit stress integration schemes are derived with specific reference to the Barcelona Basic Model (BBM), which is one of the best known elasto-plastic constitutive models for unsaturated soils. These schemes, however, do not address possible non-convexity of the loading collapse (LC) curve and neglect yielding on the suction increase (SI) line. The paper describes eight Runge–Kutta methods of various orders with adaptive substepping as well as a novel integration scheme based on Richardson extrapolation. The algorithms presented also incorporate two alternative error control methods to ensure accuracy of the numerical integration. Extensive validation and comparison of different schemes are presented in a companion paper. Although the algorithms presented were coded for the Barcelona Basic Model, they can be easily adapted to other unsaturated elasto-plastic models formulated in terms of two independent stress variables such as net stress and suction. 相似文献
19.
The paper compares the accuracy and efficiency of explicit stress integration schemes for elasto-plastic unsaturated soil models with automatic error control. Numerical tests are performed with reference to the Barcelona Basic Model (BBM), one of the most popular elasto-plastic models for unsaturated soils, by using eight explicit Runge–Kutta algorithms of various order as well as a novel application of the extrapolation method described in the companion paper. Initially, the results obtained from the lowest order Runge–Kutta scheme (i.e. Modified Euler) as well as the extrapolation method are checked against accurate solutions of a number of BBM paths involving changes of strains and suction. Subsequently, the efficiency and accuracy of all algorithms are assessed for generic increments of strains and suction, while the difference between two alternative error control methods is also analysed. The results presented, although strictly valid for the Barcelona Basic Model, are expected to be general and relevant to other similar unsaturated elasto-plastic models formulated in terms of two independent stress variables such as net stress and suction. 相似文献
20.
工程土方量计算比较分析 总被引：20，自引：0，他引：20
土方计算的基本方法有断面法、方格网法、等高线法及基于数字高程模型(DEM)法。在实际生产应用中，不同的方法计算的同一场地土方量数量相差较大，所以不同方法土方计算精度不同，适用范围也不一样。本文基于对工程土方量计算中的断面法、方格网法、等高线法及基于数字高程模型(DEM)法的基本原理、方法和优缺点比较分析。从理论上讨论它们的适用范围、条件及精度分析。结果表明，DEM法适用于所有场地，且精度较高，方格网法只适用于平坦场地；断面法适用于特别复杂的狭长带状地形场地。 相似文献