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1.
层次分析法在单沟泥石流危险度评价中的应用 总被引：28，自引：0，他引：28
单沟泥石流危险度评价是泥石流危险性评价中的重要内容,对实现山区的安全减灾有着重要意义。文章从系统理论出发,运用层次分析法(AHP)对影响泥石流沟谷危险度的相关因子进行分析,构建单沟泥石流危险度评价的层次指标系统,并对各参与评价因子的权重作了计算,建立起单沟泥石流危险度评价模型。通过对泥石流沟的实例验证,评价结果与实际情况有较好的一致性。该方法将定量与定性相结合,能很好地解决泥石流危险度综合评价问题,对提高泥石流危险度评价的可靠性、准确性及客观性有一定的实践意义。 相似文献
2.
This study presents the methodology and procedure for risk assessment of flood disasters in central Liaoning Province, which was supported by geographical information systems (GIS) and technology of natural disaster risk assessment. On the basis of the standard formulation of natural disaster risk and flood disaster risk index, of which weights were developed using combined weights of entropy, the relative membership degree functions of variable fuzzy set (VFS) theory were calculated using improved set pair analysis, while level values were calculated using VFSs, including hazard levels, exposure levels, vulnerability levels and restorability levels, and the flood risk level for each assessment unit was obtained using the natural disaster index method. Consequently, integrated flood risk map was carried out by GIS spatial analysis technique. The results show that the southwestern and central parts of the study area possess higher risk, while the northwestern and southeastern parts possess lower risk. The results got by the assessment model fits the area of historical flood data; this study offer new insights and possibility to carry out an efficient way for flood disaster prevention and mitigation. The study also provides scientific reference in flood risk management for local and national governmental agencies. 相似文献
3.
泥石流危险性分区及其在泥石流减灾中的应用 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：1
泥石流是一种突发性山地灾害,至今尚缺乏准确有效的预报方法。减灾工程也只能对一定规模的泥石流起到防御作用。泥石流危险性分区在泥石流减灾中具有重要作用。以泥石流运动数值模拟为基础,以数值模拟获得的流速和流深等参量为分区指标的危险性分区是泥石流危险性分区研究的重点和发展方向。其中,泥石流危险性动量和动能分区充分反映了泥石流的破坏能力,可以提供更为精确的定量化的分区结果。该类分区方法在城镇等有重要危害对象的泥石流减灾中具有广泛的应用。不仅可以应用于泥石流危险区和安全区的划定、泥石流灾害预估、泥石流临灾预案制定、泥石流抢险救灾方案制定和泥石流灾情评估等,还可以应用到山区土地利用规划、山区城镇建设规划和财产保险评估等领域,并起到防灾和减灾的作用。 相似文献
4.
Xiaojing Liu Jiquan Zhang Donglai Ma Yulong Bao Zhijun Tong Xingpeng Liu 《Natural Hazards》2013,65(3):1393-1409
The traditional studies on drought disaster risk were based on the ground point data, which were unable to realize the continuity of space and the timeliness. It is shown that the monitoring and evaluation precision on drought were reduced significantly. However, remote sensing data in adequate spatial and temporal resolution can overcome these limitations. It can better monitor the crop in large area dynamically. This study presents a methodology for dynamic risk analysis and assessment of drought disaster to maize production in the northwest of Liaoning Province based on remote sensing data and GIS from the viewpoints of climatology, geography and disaster science. The model of dynamic risk assessment of drought disaster was established based on risk formation theory of natural disaster, and the expression of risk by integrating data came from sky, ground and space. The risk indexes were divided into four classes by data mining method, and the grade maps of drought disaster risk were drawn by GIS. It is shown that the spatial and temporal risk distributions of maize at each growth stage changed over time. The model has been verified against reduction in maize yield caused by drought. It demonstrated the reasonability, feasibility and reliability of the model and the methodology. The dynamic risk assessment of regional drought disaster for maize can be used as a tool, which can timely monitor the status (the possibility and extent of drought) and trends of regional drought disaster. The results obtained in this study can provide the latest information of regional drought disaster and the decision-making basis of disaster prevention and mitigation for government management and farmers. 相似文献
5.
四川省都江堰市龙池地区泥石流危险性评价研究 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
汶川地震灾区震后泥石流灾害较震前活跃,对灾区泥石流危险性进行评价是灾后重建过程中合理防灾减灾的基础工作。通过研究泥石流灾害事件中的泥石流规模、泥石流沟堆积扇面积及相应的灾害损失等基础资料,提出以泥石流在泥石流沟堆积扇上的平均堆积厚度替代泥石流规模作为主要危险因子的单沟泥石流危险性评价方法。用该方法对汶川震区都江堰市龙池镇龙溪河流域2010年"8.13"泥石流事件中的29条沟谷型泥石流进行危险性评价,评价结果中9条为高度危险,12条为中度危险,8条为低度危险。用以泥石流规模为主要危险因子的单沟泥石流危险性评价方法进行对比评价,2种评价方法中有65.5%的泥石流的危险性评价结果一致。以泥石流沟堆积扇平均堆积厚度为主要危险因子的单沟泥石流危险性评价方法更能突出规模对泥石流综合危险度的贡献,能更好地反映小泥石流流域和小泥石流堆积扇的泥石流在中小规模的泥石流总量下的危险程度。 相似文献
6.
Resilient capacity assessment for geological failure areas: examples from communities affected by debris flow disaster 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
This study establishes a novel method for assessing the community resilient capacity of debris flow disasters with appropriate
parameters, such as responding, monitoring and communication capabilities. This study adopts eight communities in Taiwan,
namely Nangang, Tongfu, Jhongyang, Laiyuan, Chingfu, Sinsheng, Shangan and Jyunkeng, as examples. First, the Analytic Hierarchy
Process was applied to establish the framework of the community resiliency capacity, including the community’s resources for
disaster resilience and resident capabilities. The community’s resources for disaster resilience are identified by surveying
the community leaders via checklists. Resident capabilities are determined using questionnaires. The community resilient capacity
refers to the sum of the results from these two investigations. The two investigations have similar weights, indicating that
they are equally significant when evaluating community resilient capacity. Second, FLO-2D software is utilized for hazard
analysis by simulation results of deposited areas for debris flows, and then these areas were categorized according to hazard
degrees. Finally, the vulnerability of communities is classified based on the land use type. In summary, the values of capacity,
hazard and vulnerability are integrated to determine the risk of debris flow for each community. A risk map is then generated. 相似文献
7.
Hsin-Chi Li Tingyeh Wu Hsiao-Ping Wei Hung-Ju Shih Yi-Chiung Chao 《Natural Hazards》2017,86(3):1039-1058
This study examined the Kaoping River basin, Taiwan, an area severely destroyed by Typhoon Morakot in 2009. Dynamically downscaled data were applied to simulate extreme typhoon precipitation events for facilitating future preparation efforts (2075–2099) under climate change conditions. Models were used to simulate possible impacts in upstream and downstream areas for basinwide disaster loss assessment purposes. The Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-Based Regional Slope-Stability and FLO-2D models were applied to simulate slope-land disaster impacts and sediment volume in the upstream area. The sediment delivery ratio was used to calculate the valid sediment amount delivered downstream and the riverbed uplift altitude. SOBEK was used to build a flood impact model for the Kaoping River basin, and the model was used to simulate potential flooding caused by future extreme typhoon events. The Taiwan Typhoon Loss Assessment System established by the National Science and Technology Center for Disaster Reduction was used to evaluate the potential loss associated with extreme events. The property loss calculation included 32 land-use categories, including agriculture, forestry, fishery, and animal husbandry losses; industrial and commercial service losses; public building losses; and traffic and hydraulic facility losses. One of the Kaoping River basin townships, Daliao District, had the highest flood depth increase ratio (12.6%), and the losses were 1.5 times the original situation. This was much worse than were the losses suffered during Typhoon Morakot. These results also show that sediment delivered from the upstream areas had a significant influence on the downstream areas. This is a critical issue for future flood mitigation under climate change conditions. 相似文献
8.
Taiwan has long made efforts to increase community emergency response capability, due to its vulnerability to earthquakes,
typhoons, landslides and debris flows. Not until recent major natural disasters, such as the 1999 Chi–Chi Earthquake, Typhoon
Toraji and Typhoon Nari, has the government reformed its policy toward empowering the community to take actions in hazard
mitigation, emergency preparedness and emergency response. A new initiatve, Integrated Community-Based Disaster Management
Program (ICBDM), was launched in 2001 by the Executive Yuan to achieve the goal of strengthening community resistance. The
paper, taking Shang-An Village as an example, describes Taiwan’s new community-based disaster management program. Through
a participatory process, community residents have learned how to analyze vulnerable conditions, discover problems, develop
solutions and establish an organization to implement disaster management tasks. Further, basic response training courses and
a disaster scenario were held in order to improve their emergency response capability. Based on the case study, a phased process,
including initiation, assessment, planning and practice, is generalized. 相似文献
9.
With increasing threat to lives and properties, identifying and assessing disaster potentials has become necessary and prior for effective disaster preparation and rescue planning. This study first introduces practical methods currently used in Taipei City, Taiwan, to identify and assess heavy rainfall–induced potential risks on flood, debris flow, and landslide. The identified disaster potential information is further applied to a series of deterministic and probabilistic risk analyses using Shilin District of Taipei City as a case study. The deterministic risk analyses are conducted to evaluate the impact of various heavy rainfall intensities on the residents. The probabilistic risk analyses are performed to establish risk curves for the population affected by heavy rainfall–induced hazards. The risk curve represents the relationships between the affected population and the annual exceedance probability. This study found the annual exceedance probability is very sensitive to the assumed coefficients of variation of the affected population. It is recommended historical statistical data on the correlation between affected population and rainfall intensity should be recorded and compiled in order to assess the actual probability distribution function of the affected population. Risk analysis results are further applied to assess the community evacuation capacity in this district. Last, short-term and long-term mitigation strategies and recommendations are discussed. 相似文献
10.
11.
During Typhoon Morakot which hit Taiwan from 6 to 9 August, 2009, Kaohsiung City was highly affected by devastating debris-flows and flooding. Recorded casualties were 699 deaths and 1,766 damaged homes, mostly in the mountainous areas of Kaohsiung City. Due to a largely malfunctioning or absent early-warning system, residents in those mountainous villages were required to rely on individual- and/or community-based capacities to evacuate and respond to debris-flow-related disasters. Hence, this study investigates the response behaviour of selected debris-flow-affected communities in Kaohsiung City, based on a preparedness awareness action and affect model. Key results from the survey highlight that only 13.8 % of the households received formal (institutional) early warning, whereas 86.2 % households had to rely on their intrinsic senses and indigenous knowledge to recognise the onset of debris-flows in their villages during Typhoon Morakot. Among those households who did not receive formal early warning, 10 % of the households received previous disaster education, 17 % had previous disaster experience, and 73 % did have neither disaster education nor disaster experience. Furthermore, households with disaster education were among those who were best prepared and knew best how to evacuate and respond to debris-flow-related disasters followed by households with disaster experiences. Finally, findings from the survey and selected key informants’ interviews identified that the response behaviour of communities ought to be enhanced through the following measures: conduction of hydro-meteorological-related disaster education, improved participatory risk communication and enhanced recognition of communities as vital actors during a disaster to provide local knowledge and support to relief operations. 相似文献
12.
我国是世界上受滑坡影响最大的国家之一,也投入了大量的人力物力开展区域性滑坡隐患探测工作.近年的政府工作表明,80%的滑坡发生在已圈定的隐患点范围外,80%的滑坡发生在防灾减灾工作条件相对薄弱的边远农村地区.为了解决这个困境,亟需:（1）厘清不同类型滑坡宜选用的广域探测技术,解决滑坡隐患广域探测的漏检问题;（2）突破社区协同滑坡防灾的难题,助力滑坡隐患探测和风险评估.本文将滑坡隐患分为4类:斜坡变形区、复活历史变形破坏区、稳定历史变形破坏区和潜在斜坡变形区,以便充分发挥多源遥感数据和技术的优势;进而提出一种“滑坡隐患广域探测-单体滑坡隐患风险评估-社区协同防灾”的多源遥感滑坡防灾技术框架.以青藏高原交通工程关键区段约10 000 km2区域作为研究区,协同社区（如设计和建设单位）共识别出滑坡隐患263处,其中斜坡变形区249处,复活历史变形破坏区5处,稳定历史变形破坏区9处,并针对3个典型滑坡隐患进行风险定量评估和社区协同防灾.该多源遥感技术框架将有助于提高社区滑坡防灾的能力,也将直接服务于青藏高原交通工程的建设与运维. 相似文献
13.
Shabana Khan 《Natural Hazards》2012,64(2):1587-1607
An understanding of vulnerability is not only crucial for the survival of the exposed communities to extreme events, but also for their adaptation to climate change. Vulnerability affects community participation in hazard mitigation, influences emergency response and governs adaptive capacity for the changing environmental and hazards characteristics. However, despite increased awareness, assessments and understanding of the processes that produce vulnerability, disaster risks prevail. This raises questions on the effectiveness of vulnerability assessments and their applications for hazard mitigation and adaptation. The literature includes a range of vulnerability assessment methods, wherein frequently the selection of any particular method is governed by the research objectives. On the other hand, hazard mitigation plans and policies even though mention vulnerability, their implementation pays less attention to the variations in its nature and underlying causes. This paper explores possible reasons for such gaps by exploring a case study of the Hutt Valley, New Zealand. It brings out the limitations of different vulnerability assessment methods in representing the local vulnerability and challenges they bring in planning for the vulnerability reduction. It argues that vulnerability assessment based on any particular method, such as deprivation index, principle component analysis, composite vulnerability index with or without weight, may not reveal the actual vulnerability of a place, and therefore, a comprehensive vulnerability assessment is needed. 相似文献
14.
滑坡灾害持续影响着人民生命财产安全和地区社会经济可持续发展,滑坡危险性评价能够为防灾减灾和区域规划提供有效的理论依据。以福建省南平市为研究区,区内1711个历史滑坡灾害点,选择高程、坡度、坡向、曲率、地质岩性、土壤类型、降雨、水系、土地利用类型、公路和铁路共11个影响因子构成基本评价体系。使用Spearman相关系数对各因子进行共线性分析。基于1711个滑坡样本和1711个随机选取的非滑坡样本数据,利用人工神经网络模型对研究区进行了滑坡危险性评价,并利用混淆矩阵和接收者操作特征曲线（ROC）对模型进行验证。结果表明:混淆矩阵精度84.91%,ROC曲线下面积AUC值0.93,说明模型具有较高精度和预测率。使用自然间断法将滑坡危险性分为5个等级,结果表明研究区内危险性最高地区位于延平区和浦城县,顺昌县和松溪县次之,其余地区多为低危险区和较低危险区。研究结果可为当地区域规划和防灾减灾工程提供一定的理论依据和科学指导。 相似文献
15.
An assessment of multidimensional flood vulnerability at the provincial scale in China based on the DEA method 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Dapeng Huang Renhe Zhang Zhiguo Huo Fei Mao Youhao E Wei Zheng 《Natural Hazards》2012,64(2):1575-1586
China suffers frequent and severe floods. A lot of studies have been done in the field of flood disaster, including flood vulnerability assessment. This paper develops assessment models of multidimensional flood vulnerability based on the data envelopment analysis method and identifies multidimensional flood vulnerability??population, death, agriculture and economy??at the provincial scale in China using flood damage data and socioeconomic statistical data from 2001 to 2010. Based on the characteristics of multidimensional flood vulnerability of each province, some suggestions for flood prevention and mitigation are suggested. The assessment models of multidimensional flood vulnerability are simple and can be used for vulnerability analysis of natural disaster at regional or national levels. The assessment of multidimensional flood vulnerability can provide multifaceted information that contributes to a deeper understanding of the flood vulnerability and provides a scientific base for the policy making and implementation of flood prevention and mitigation designs. 相似文献
16.
舟曲“8．8”特大泥石流是我国有历史记载以来造成损失最大的一次泥石流灾害,如实地记录这次灾害的特点、形成条件及致灾因素,分析其发展趋势并提出风险减缓措施,对指导灾后重建和今后的研究都是十分必要的。以舟曲“8．8”泥石流中的罗家峪为对象,通过泥石流勘查,分析了泥石流形成的地质环境条件,描述了三眼峪泥石流的分区特征和堆积物特征,从泥石流的堆积特征、重度、流速、流量的特征值等方面阐述了本次泥石流的发育特征;从地形地貌、固体物质和极端降雨等方面分析了泥石流的形成原因。 相似文献
17.
Bangladesh is one of the most natural hazard-prone countries in the world with the greatest negative consequences being associated with cyclones, devastating floods, riverbank erosion, drought, earthquake, and arsenic contamination, etc. One way or other, these natural hazards engulfed every corner of Bangladesh. The main aim of this research paper is to carry out a multi-hazards risk and vulnerability assessment for the coastal Matlab municipality in Bangladesh and to recommend possible mitigation measures. To this aim, hazards are prioritized by integrating SMUG and FEMA models, and a participation process is implemented so as to involve community both in the risk assessment and in the identification of adaptation strategies. The Matlab municipality is highly vulnerable to several natural hazards such as cyclones, floods, and riverbank erosion. The SMUG is a qualitative assessment, while FEMA is a quantitative assessment of hazards. The FEMA model suggests a threshold of highest 100 points. All hazards that total more than 100 points may receive higher priority in emergency preparedness and mitigation measures. The FEMA model, because it judges each hazard individually in a numerical manner, may provide more satisfying results than the SMUG system. The spatial distributions of hazard, risk, social institutions, land use, and other resources indicate that the flood disaster is the top environmental problem of Matlab municipality. Hazard-specific probable mitigation measures are recommended with the discussion of local community. Finally, this study tries to provide insights into the way field research combining scientific assessments tools such as SMUG and FEMA could feed evidence-based decision-making processes for mitigation in vulnerable communities. 相似文献
18.
A Probabilistic Modelling System for Assessing Flood Risks 总被引：4，自引：2，他引：4
In order to be economically viable, flood disaster mitigation should be based on a comprehensive assessment of the flood risk.
This requires the estimation of the flood hazard (i.e. runoff and associated probability) and the consequences of flooding
(i.e. property damage, damage to persons, etc.). Within the “German Research Network Natural Disasters” project, the working
group on “Flood Risk Analysis” investigated the complete flood disaster chain from the triggering event down to its various
consequences. The working group developed complex, spatially distributed models representing the relevant meteorological,
hydrological, hydraulic, geo-technical, and socio-economic processes. In order to assess flood risk these complex deterministic
models were complemented by a simple probabilistic model. The latter model consists of modules each representing one process
of the flood disaster chain. Each module is a simple parameterisation of the corresponding more complex model. This ensures
that the two approaches (simple probabilistic and complex deterministic) are compatible at all steps of the flood disaster
chain. The simple stochastic approach allows a large number of simulation runs in a Monte Carlo framework thus providing the
basis for a probabilistic risk assessment. Using the proposed model, the flood risk including an estimation of the flood damage
was quantified for an example area at the river Rhine. Additionally, the important influence of upstream levee breaches on
the flood risk at the lower reaches was assessed. The proposed model concept is useful for the integrated assessment of flood
risks in flood prone areas, for cost-benefit assessment and risk-based design of flood protection measures and as a decision
support tool for flood management. 相似文献
19.
地质灾害危险性评价是防灾减灾工作的重要依据。本文以汶川县城周边64 km2为例,应用遥感信息提取技术与GIS空间分析方法,根据IKONOS遥感图像和地形图及野外调查资料,提取了崩塌和滑坡易发性评价因子,采用信息量法确定了因子分值,计算了崩塌和滑坡易发性,并分别提出崩塌和滑坡的危险性计算方法,形成了汶川地区崩塌和滑坡危险性分区图。研究结果表明:新的崩塌和滑坡危险性评价方法能够反映区内地质灾害危险程度,该方法可行,结果合理,这为中、大比例尺区域范围内地质灾害危险性研究提供了有益的思路。 相似文献
20.
In urban area, popular and property is accumulated in a small area, potential risk of earthquake disaster in urban community
is great. Pre-disaster emergency evacuation zoning has become a significant topic of disaster prevention and mitigation research.
Based on the present layout of evacuation facilities and shelters as well as the evacuation demands in urban communities,
a systematical methodology for occupant evacuation against earthquakes on community scale was developed by employing spatial
analysis techniques of Geographical Information System (GIS). The methodology included the following aspects: the distribution
analysis of emergency evacuation demands, the calculation of shelter space accessibility, and the optimization of evacuation
destinations. This methodology was applied to Lujiazui Street in Pudong, a new district located in Shanghai, China. It was
found that the proposed methodology could be used to formulate pre-event planning for earthquake disaster prevention and mitigation
on a community scale, especially for organizing a rapid and smooth evacuation and optimizing the location allocation of shelters. 相似文献