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1.
The present research evaluated the relation between the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) changes and the climate change during 2000–2014 in Qazvin Plain, Iran. Daily precipitation and mean temperature values during 2015–2040 and 2040–2065 were predicted using the statistical downscaling model (SDSM), and these values were compared with the values of the base period (2000–2014). The MODIS images (MOD13A2) were used for NDVI monitoring. In order to investigate the effects of climate changes on vegetation, the relationship between the NDVI and climatic parameters was assessed in monthly, seasonal, and annual time periods. According to the obtained results under the B2 scenario, the mean annual precipitation at Qazvin Station during 2015–2040 and 2040–2065 was 6.7 mm (9.3%) and 8.2 mm (11.36%) lower than the values in the base period, respectively. Moreover, the mean annual temperature in the mentioned periods was 0.7 and 0.92 °C higher than that in the base period, respectively. Analysis of the correlations between the NDVI and climatic parameters in different periods showed that there is a significant correlation between the seasonal temperature and NDVI (P < 0.01). Moreover, the NDVI will increase 0.009 and 0.011 during 2015–2040 and 2040–2065, respectively.  相似文献   

2.
Using modern pollen and radiolarian distributions in sediments from the northwest Pacific and seas adjacent to Japan to interpret floral and faunal changes in core RC14-103 (44°02′N, 152°56′E), we recognize two major responses of the biota of eastern Hokkaido and the northwest Pacific to climatic changes since the last interglaciation. Relatively stable glacial environments (～80,000–20,000 yr B.P.) were basically cold and wet (<4°C and ～1000 mm mean annual temperature and precipitation, respectively) with boreal conijers and tundra/park-tundra on Hokkaido, and cool (<16°C) summer and cold (<1.0°C) winter surface temperatures offshore. Contrasting nonglacial environments (～10,000–4000 yr B.P.) were warm and humid (>8°C and >1200 mm mean annual temperature and precipitation, respectively), supporting climax broadleaf deciduous forest with Quercus and Ulmus/Zelkova, with surface waters in the northwest Pacific characterized by warm (>1.5°C) winter and cold (10.4°–14.3°C) summer temperatures. Climatic evidence from RC14-103 shows a high degree of local and regional variation within the context of global climatic change. Correlative ocean and land records provide the detailed input necessary to assess local/regional responses to variations in other key elements (i.e., solar radiation, monsoonal variations) of the northeast Asian climate system.  相似文献   

3.
Rainfall is one of the pivotal climatic variables, which influence spatio-temporal patterns of water availability. In this study, we have attempted to understand the interannual long-term trend analysis of the daily rainfall events of ≥?2.5 mm and rainfall events of extreme threshold, over the Western Ghats and coastal region of Karnataka. High spatial resolution (0.25°?×?0.25°) daily gridded rainfall data set of Indian Meteorological Department was used for this study. Thirty-eight grid points in the study area was selected to analyze the daily precipitation for 113 years (1901–2013). Grid points were divided into two zones: low land (exposed to the sea and low elevated area/coastal region) and high land (interior from the sea and high elevated area/Western Ghats). The indices were selected from the list of climate change indices recommended by ETCCDI and are based on annual rainfall total (RR), yearly 1-day maximum rainfall, consecutive wet days (≥?2.5 mm), Simple Daily Intensity Index (SDII), annual frequency of very heavy rainfall (≥?100 mm), frequency of very heavy rainfall (≥?65–100 mm), moderate rainfall (≥?2.5–65 mm), frequency of medium rainfall (≥?40–65 mm), and frequency of low rainfall (≥?20–40 mm). Mann-Kendall test was applied to the nine rainfall indices, and Theil-Sen estimator perceived the nature and the magnitude of slope in rainfall indices. The results show contrasting trends in the extreme rainfall indices in low land and high land regions. The changes in daily rainfall events in the low land region primarily indicate statistically significant positive trends in the annual total rainfall, yearly 1-day maximum rainfall, SDII, frequency of very heavy rainfall, and heavy rainfall as well as medium rainfall events. Furthermore, the overall annual rainfall strongly correlated with all the rainfall indices in both regions, especially with indices that represent heavy rainfall events which is responsible for the total increase of rainfall.  相似文献   

4.
Geomorphological mapping of northern Arran provides evidence for two advances of locally nourished glaciers, the younger being attributable to the Loch Lomond Stade (LLS) of ca. 12.9–11.5 k yr BP, primarily through the mutually exclusive relationship between glacial limits and Lateglacial periglacial features. The age of the earlier advance is unknown. Inferred LLS glacier cover comprised two small icefields and eight small corrie or valley glaciers and totalled 11.1 km2. ELAs reconstructed using area–altitude balance ratio methods range from 268 m to 631 m for individual glaciers, with an area‐weighted mean ELA of 371 m. ELAs of individual glaciers are strongly related to snow‐contributing areas. The area‐weighted mean ELA is consistent with a north–south decline in LLS ELAs along the west coast of Great Britain. This decline has an average latitudinal gradient of 70 m 100 km?1, equivalent to a mean southwards ablation‐season temperature increase of ca. 0.42°C 100 km?1. Mean June–August temperatures at the regional climatic ELA, estimated from chironomid assemblages in SE Scotland, lay between 5.7 ± 0.1°C and 4.1 ± 0.2°C. Empirical relationships between temperature and precipitation at modern glacier ELAs indicate equivalent mean annual precipitation at the ELA lay between 2002 ± 490 mm and 2615 ± 449 mm. These figures suggest that stadial precipitation on Arran fell within a range between +8% and ?33% of present mean annual precipitation. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

5.
《Quaternary Science Reviews》2007,26(5-6):759-772
Quantitative reconstruction of the climatic history of the Chinese Loess Plateau is important for understanding present and past environment and climate changes in the Northern Hemisphere. Here, we reconstructed mean annual temperature (MAT) and mean annual precipitation (MAP) trends during the last 136 ka based on the analysis of phytoliths from the Weinan loess section (34°24′N, 109°30′E) near the southern part of the Loess Plateau in northern China. The reconstructions have been carried out using a Chinese phytolith–climate calibration model based on weighted averaging partial least-squares regression. A series of cold and dry events, as indicated by the reconstructed MAT and MAP, are documented in the loess during the last glacial periods, which can be temporally correlated with the North Atlantic Heinrich events. Our MAT and MAP estimations show that the coldest and/or driest period occurred at the upper part of L2 unit (Late MIS 6), where MAT dropped to ca 4.4 °C and MAP to ca 100 mm. Two other prominent cold-dry periods occurred at lower Ll-5 (ca 77–62 ka) and L1-1 (ca 23–10.5 ka) where the MAT and MAP decreased to about 6.1–6.5 °C and 150–370 mm, respectively, ca 6.6–6.2 °C and 400–200 mm lower than today. However, the highest MAT (average 14.6 °C, max. 18.1 °C) and MAP (average 757 mm, max. 1000 mm) occurred at Sl interval (MIS 5). During the interstadial of L1-4–L1-2 (MIS 3) and during the Holocene warm-wet period, the MAT was about 1–2 °C and MAP 100–150 mm higher than today in the Weinan region. The well-dated MAT and MAP reconstructions from the Chinese Loess Plateau presented in this paper are the first quantitatively reconstructed proxy record of climatic changes at the glacial–interglacial timescale that is based on phytolith data. This study also reveals a causal link between climatic instability in the Atlantic Ocean and climate variability in the Chinese Loess Plateau.  相似文献   

6.
Glaciers are among the most conspicuous and dynamic features on the earth’s surface and are also highly sensitive to changes in climatic parameters. Glaciers in the Kashmir Himalayas have been reported to be retreating due to climate forcing. Kolahoi Glacier is one of the largest and important glaciers of the Kashmir Himalayas and is the main source of Liddar River, which is the largest tributary of the Jhelum River system. In the present study, an analysis to assess the response of Kolahoi Glacier to the changing climate was carried out using the Survey of India (SoI) map and multi-temporal Landsat satellite data. The results show a significant change in the spatial extent of Kolahoi Glacier. The total area of this glacier has reduced from 12.21 km2 in 1962 to 11.61 km2 in 2010. An analysis of meteorological data (temperature and precipitation) shows that the average annual temperature increased from 9.1 °C in 1980–1989 to 10.3 °C in 2000–2009, while the precipitation decreased from 1329.44 to 1126.89 mm during the same period. The results suggest that this glacier will be annihilated completely if the same retreating trend continues.  相似文献   

7.
A palaeotemperature reconstruction based on periglacial phenomena in Europe north of approximately 51 °N, is compared with high‐resolution regional climate model simulations of the marine oxygen isotope Stage 3 (Stage 3) palaeoclimate. The experiments represent Stage 3 warm (interstadial), Stage 3 cold (stadial) and Last Glacial Maximum climatic conditions. The palaeotemperature reconstruction deviates considerably for the Stage 3 cold climate experiments, with mismatches up to 11 °C for the mean annual air temperature and up to 15 °C for the winter temperature. However, in this reconstruction various factors linking climate and permafrost have not been taken into account. In particular a relatively thin snow cover and high climatic variability of the glacial climate could have influenced temperature limits for ice‐wedge growth. Based on modelling the 0 °C mean annual ground temperature proves to be an appropriate upper temperature limit. Using this limit, mismatches with the Stage 3 cold climate experiments have been reduced but still remain. We therefore assume that the Stage 3 ice wedges were generated during short (decadal time‐scale) intervals of extreme cold climate, below the mean temperatures indicated by the Stage 3 cold climate model simulations. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

8.
Assessing the climatic characteristics and identifying the climatic parameters of a specific region can play a major role in human welfare. Thermal comfort conditions are among the most significant factors of climatic variables in the northwestern regions of Iran due to the considerable spatial and temporal variations and are vital for environmental, energy and economic management. It is therefore necessary to advance our knowledge of the climatic conditions in order to provide an appropriate tool for managing climatic extremes. This requires charting of the range of clusters of the thermal comfort conditions in this region. In this study, the general atmosphere circulation model HADCM3 and the A1 scenario, downscaled by the LARS-WG model, were employed to simulate the climatic conditions in Iran during the period 2011–2040. The data obtained were compared with sampled data from six Iranian climatic stations for the 30-year period (1961–1990). In order to tabulate this comparison, six clusters per climatic station were defined based on intrinsic similarity of data. Results show an increase in the annual average temperature of these six stations by 1.69 °C for the predicted years, projected from the base years 1961–1990. This factor has resulted in an increment of the annual average thermal comfort temperature inside buildings by a magnitude of 0.52 °C in future decades. When the thermal requirements of the studied region were evaluated based on the real temperature difference and the degree of thermal comfort, it becomes clear that apart from cluster 1, the energy required to reach thermal comfort inside buildings will increase in the future. As a result of this temperature increase, an increase of the energy required to reach the thermal comfort is expected. This new methodology is an interesting tool and needs to be seriously considered by engineers and architects in designing buildings of the future.  相似文献   

9.
The Cueva del Camino site (Pinilla del Valle, Madrid, Spain) is located in the upper valley of the Lozoya River in the Sierra de Guadarrama, a mountain range extending NE?SW within the Central Range System. Due to its location within a mountain range on the central Iberian Peninsula at an altitude of 1114 m a.s.l. and the numerical dating of its sediments, the palaeontological site of Cueva del Camino has proved a highly relevant location for studying the ecological changes linked to the climatic fluctuations at the end of Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 5 and the beginning of MIS 4. Environmental reconstructions suggest a rather open, patchy landscape throughout the succession, with abundant evidence of dry meadows, scrublands and rocky habitats. The climate can be considered as generally warm, reaching mean annual temperatures (MATs) of up to 13.8°C (i.e. higher than today's by up to 2.9°C). Three cooler events can be seen throughout the succession as reflected by the presence of Rana iberica, Anguis fragilis and Coronella austriaca. The first of these events may correlate with MIS 5b; the second in the Central sector may correlate with the Stadial I pollen event occurring at the end of MIS 5a; and the third event, corresponding to the coldest MAT of the entire succession with MATs 0.9°C lower than today's, may correspond to the transition from MIS 5a to MIS 4. The evolution of mean annual precipitation (MAP) is characterized by warm periods, drier and cold periods, as well as wetter periods (up to +356 mm compared to today's MAP values), similar to what occurs today in the high‐elevation areas of the neighbouring mountains. Our study gives new quantitative estimations for the climatic fluctuations in mountain environments of central Spain at the MIS 5/4 transition and their associated ecological changes.  相似文献   

10.
For the 1993–2009 period, we analyzed the relationship between almond yield and three climatic variables (mean annual temperature, soil water reserve, and precipitation), and four bioclimatic variables (annual ombrothermic index, water deficit, simple continentality index, and compensated thermicity index), for one major Hebron crop (soft and hard almonds). Moreover, we obtained data almond production from the Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics, while the climate data from the Palestinian meteorological station during the study period from 1993 to 2009, and analysis is it by using bioclimatic classification of the Earth of Salvador Rivas-Martinez to study the relationship between the almond yield and climate and bioclimate factors (variables). The climatic and bioclimate variables of greatest importance to almond were used to develop regressions analysis relating yield to climatic conditions. Hebron was positively affected by annual ombrothermic index, simple continentality index, precipitation, water soil reserve, and mean annual temperature, but negatively affected by water deficit, with a large proportion of the variance explained by axis F1 (72.48%), F2 (22.38%), and axes F1and F2 (94. 86%). However, in order to produce a high amount of almonds and quality, it can be grown in the regions of the mesomediterranean region, with the value of annual ombrothemic index more than 3, compensated thermicity index between 220/220 to 350/350, simple continentality index between 14 and 20, and in areas where the average annual temperature is between 15 and 20 °C.  相似文献   

11.
This study investigates the distribution of modern pollen assemblages in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, China, based on surface soil samples collected at 1202 sites along an altitudinal gradient of 10–5500 m asl, where mean annual precipitation (MAP) ranges from 12 to 1840 mm and mean annual temperature (MAT) from ?7 to 21.5 °C. A total of 153 pollen taxa were found with relative abundances greater than 1% in at least two samples. Canonical correspondence analysis (CCA) was used to determine the main environmental variables influencing pollen distributions. The results reveal that MAP is the most significant dominant variable. However, MAT, altitude (ALT), July temperature (MT7), and relative humidity (HHH) are also significant variables that clearly follow the gradients in the CCA ordination, suggesting that pollen assemblages probably not only reflect a single climatic parameter, but also a variety of other climatic inter-related parameters.Transfer functions, based on locally weighted weighted averaging (LWWA), were developed for MAP (R2-boot = 0.89, RMSEP = 109 mm), MAT (R2-boot = 0.78, RMSEP = 2.3 °C), ALT (R2-boot = 0.73, RMSEP = 597 m), HHH (R2-boot = 0.82, RMSEP = 4.5%), and July mean precipitation (MP7) (R2-boot = 0.87, RMSEP = 23 mm). Overall, our results confirm that pollen can provide reliable estimates of the primary climatic parameters. The application of the LWWA model to the fossil records of Chen Co Lake allowed quantitative inferences to be made about Holocene climatic changes in the southern Tibetan Plateau, suggesting that LWWA is a robust calibration method for quantitative palaeo-environmental reconstruction based on pollen data in the regions.  相似文献   

12.
Hydrogeological and climatic effect on chemical behavior of groundwater along a climatic gradient is studied along a river basin. ‘Semi-arid’ (500–800 mm of mean annual rainfall), ‘sub-humid’ (800–1,200 mm/year) and ‘humid’ (1,200–1,500 mm/year) are the climatic zones chosen along the granito-gneissic plains of Kabini basin in South India for the present analysis. Data on groundwater chemistry is initially checked for its quality using NICB ratio (<±5 %), EC versus TZ+ (~0.85 correlation), EC versus TDS and EC versus TH analysis. Groundwater in the three climatic zones is ‘hard’ to ‘very hard’ in terms of Ca–Mg hardness. Polluted wells are identified (>40 % of pollution) and eliminated for the characterization. Piper’s diagram with mean concentrations indicates the evolution of CaNaHCO3 (semi-arid) from CaHCO3 (humid zone) along the climatic gradient. Carbonates dominate other anions and strong acids exceeded weak acids in the region. Mule Hole SEW, an experimental watershed in sub-humid zone, is characterized initially using hydrogeochemistry and is observed to be a replica of entire sub-humid zone (with 25 wells). Extension of the studies for the entire basin (120 wells) showed a chemical gradient along the climatic gradient with sub-humid zone bridging semi-arid and humid zones. Ca/Na molar ratio varies by more than 100 times from semi-arid to humid zones. Semi-arid zone is more silicaceous than sub-humid while humid zone is more carbonaceous (Ca/Cl ~14). Along the climatic gradient, groundwater is undersaturated (humid), saturated (sub-humid) and slightly supersaturated (semi-arid) with calcite and dolomite. Concentration–depth profiles are in support of the geological stratification i.e., ~18 m of saprolite and ~25 m of fracture rock with parent gneiss beneath. All the wells are classified into four groups based on groundwater fluctuations and further into ‘deep’ and ‘shallow’ based on the depth to groundwater. Higher the fluctuations, larger is its impact on groundwater chemistry. Actual seasonal patterns are identified using ‘recharge–discharge’ concept based on rainfall intensity instead of traditional monsoon–non-monsoon concept. Non-pumped wells have low Na/Cl and Ca/Cl ratios in recharge period than in discharge period (Dilution). Few other wells, which are subjected to pumping, still exhibit dilution chemistry though water level fluctuations are high due to annual recharge. Other wells which do not receive sufficient rainfall and are constantly pumped showed high concentrations in recharge period rather than in discharge period (Anti-dilution). In summary, recharge–discharge concept demarcates the pumped wells from natural deep wells thus, characterizing the basin.  相似文献   

13.
This paper presents one of the richest and most complete vertebrate faunas of the late Middle Miocene (~12 Ma) of Central Europe. Up to now, sixty-two vertebrate taxa, comprising all major groups (fishes, amphibians, reptiles, birds, mammals), have been recorded. Based on sedimentological and palaeobiological evidences, this Fossillagerstätte is assumed to originate from a floodplain paleosol formed on top of a braided river sequence. The fauna points to a highly structured, somewhat vegetated landscape with a wide array of habitats (e.g., fluvial channels, sporadically moist floodplains, short-lived ponds, savannah-like open areas and screes). It was preserved due to a rapid drowning and the switch to a freshwater lake environment. Palaeoclimatological data, derived from pedogenic features as well as from biota, indicate an overall semi-arid, subtropical climate with distinct seasonality (mean annual precipitation 486 ± 252 mm, mean annual temperature ~15°C). This underlines the late Middle/early Late Miocene dry-spell in Central Europe. From taphonomical point of view, the irregularly distributed but roughly associated larger vertebrate remains refer to an in situ accumulation of the bone bed. Splintered bones, gnawing marks as well as rhizoconcretions and root corrosion structures record some pre- and post-burial modification of the taphocoenose. However, the findings of pellet remains argue for a very fast burial and thus to a low degree of time-averaging. For this reason, the fossil fauna reflects the original vertebrate community rather well and is a cornerstone for the understanding of late Middle Miocene terrestrial ecosystems in this region. Certainly, Gratkorn will be one of the key faunas for a high-resolution continental biostratigraphy and the comprehension of Europe’s faunal interchanges near the Middle/Late Miocene transition.  相似文献   

14.
In this study thermal comfort conditions are analyzed to determine possible thermal perceptions during different months in Iran through the Physiologically Equivalent Temperature (PET). The monthly PET values produced using the RayMan Model ranged from ?7.6°C to 46.8°C. Over the winter months the thermal comfort condition (18–23°C) were concentrated in southern coastal areas along the Persian Gulf and Oman Sea. Most of the country experienced comfort conditions during the spring months, in particular in April, while during the summer months of July and August no thermal comfort conditions were observed. In November coastal areas of the Caspian Sea had the same physiological stress level of thermal comfort as April. The map produced showing mean annual PET conditions demonstrated the greatest spatial distribution of comfortable levels in the elevation range from 1000 to 2000 meter a.s.l., with annual temperatures of 12–20°C and annual precipitation of under 200 mm. The statistical relationship between PET conditions and each controlling parameter revealed a significant correlation in areas above 2000 meter, annual temperature over 20°C and annual precipitation of 200–400 mm with a correlation coefficient (R 2) of 0.91, 0.97 and 0.96, respectively.  相似文献   

15.
Vegetation and climate since the LGM in eastern Hokkaido were investigated based on a pollen record from marine core GH02-1030 from off Tokachi in the northwestern Pacific. We also examined pollen spectra in surface samples from Sakhalin to compare and understand the climatic conditions of Hokkaido during the last glacial period. Vegetation in the Tokachi region in the LGM (22–17 ka) was an open boreal forest dominated by Picea and Larix. During the last deglaciation (17–10 ka), vegetation was characterized by abundant Betula. In the Kenbuchi Basin, central Hokkaido, a remarkable increase of Larix and Pinus occurred in the LGM and the last deglaciation, which was assigned as the “Kenbuchi Stadial.” Comparison of climatic data between the core GH02-1030 and that of Kenbuchi Basin demonstrates that variations in temperature and precipitation were larger in inland Hokkaido than in the maritime area of the Pacific coast. During the LGM in the Tokachi region, the August mean temperature was about 5 °C lower, and annual precipitation was about 40% lower than today. In the Kenbuchi Basin, central Hokkaido, the August mean temperature was about 8 °C lower, and annual precipitation was half that of today. During the last deglaciation, August mean temperatures were about 3 °C lower, and annual precipitation was about 30% lower than today in the Tokachi region. In the Kenbuchi Basin, August mean temperatures were about 5–8 °C lower, and annual precipitation was about 40–60% lower than today. Cold ocean water and a strengthened summer monsoon after 15 ka may have resulted in the formation of advection fogs, reduced summer temperatures, and a decrease in the seasonal temperature difference in the Tokachi district, which established favorable maritime conditions for Betula forests.  相似文献   

16.
Cryoplanation terraces are bedrock steps or terraces on ridge crests and hilltops. The tread or “flat” area is 10 to several hundred meters wide and long and slopes from 1 to 5° parallel to the ridge crests. Terrace scarps may be from 1 to 75 m high. Terraces are cut into all bedrock types and are best developed on closely jointed, fine-grained bedrock. The scarps and treads are covered with frost-rived rubble 1 to 2 m thick. The rubble on treads is perennially frozen at a depth of 1 to 2 m or less on sharp but inactive terraces in Alaska.Cryoplanation terraces exist in many parts of the world in present or past periglacial environments. They occur chiefly in nonglaciated regions and near the general altitude of snowline. Cryoplanation terraces form by scarp retreat as the result of nivation. Surficial debris is removed across the terrace tread by mass-wasting. Terrace morphology depends mainly upon climate, bedrock type, and terrace orientation.No climatic data are available from active terraces. Indirect evidence indicates that climatic requirements include low snowfall and cold summer temperatures. Shallow permafrost is necessary to provide moisture and a base for mass movement as well as a base for nivation.Hundreds of sharp but inactive terraces occur in some areas in Alaska where the summer temperature is colder than 10°C. When these terraces were active, temperatures were colder. Recent work in Alaska indicates that terraces were active in some areas when the mean July temperature was about 4°C. The mean annual air temperature probably was in the neighborhood of ′12°C or colder.  相似文献   

17.
Main climatic indexes (mean January, July and annual temperatures; duration of the frost‐free period; seasonal and annual precipitation; and annual potential evaporation) are estimated for the Last Interglacial Eemian–Mikulino–Kazantsevo–Oxygen Isotopic Substage 5e) climatic optimum in northern Eurasia. Reconstructions are based on the palaeofloristic data from 29 sites. The distribution of temperature deviations from present‐day values in northern Eurasia, as well as in the northern hemisphere as a whole, indicates certain areas where temperatures during the Last Interglacial climatic optimum were lower than at present. The greatest positive deviations occurred in the high latitudes and gradually decreased towards mid‐latitudes. At about 45°N the mean January temperature was close to that of the present day. For the mean July temperature, the zone with minor deviations is situated further to the north, at 55°N. South of 50°N, an area with small negative temperature deviations from the present‐day values is reconstructed. A similar decrease in temperature deviations from high to low latitudes was the general tendency in various warm epochs, including the Holocene and the Eocene optima. In the arid and semi‐arid regions of northern Eurasia, a considerable increase in precipitation took place, while air temperatures were close to those of the present or even slightly lower. Another peculiarity of the climate in the Last Interglacial climatic optimum relates to the meridional temperature gradient, one of the factors strongly influencing the intensity of the Westerlies in the mid‐latitudes of the northern hemisphere. Our reconstructions for northern Eurasia tend to contradict this rule. The paradox can be explained by a compensation mechanism: a substantial increase in winter temperature in Siberia indicates that the Siberian atmospheric High was weaker and smaller at the Last Interglacial climatic optimum than at present. The reduced role of the Siberian High was compensated by more frequent invasions of the Atlantic air masses from the west, even though the meridional temperature gradient was smaller than at present.  相似文献   

18.
Although shallow groundwater (<50 mbgl) sustains the vast majority of improved drinking-water supplies in rural Africa, there is little information on how resilient this resource may be to future changes in climate. This study presents results of a groundwater survey using stable isotopes, CFCs, SF6, and 3H across different climatic zones (annual rainfall 400–2,000 mm/year) in West Africa. The purpose was to quantify the residence times of shallow groundwaters in sedimentary and basement aquifers, and investigate the relationship between groundwater resources and climate. Stable-isotope results indicate that most shallow groundwaters are recharged rapidly following rainfall, showing little evidence of evaporation prior to recharge. Chloride mass-balance results indicate that within the arid areas (<400 mm annual rainfall) there is recharge of up to 20 mm/year. Age tracers show that most groundwaters have mean residence times (MRTs) of 32–65 years, with comparable MRTs in the different climate zones. Similar MRTs measured in both the sedimentary and basement aquifers suggest similar hydraulic diffusivity and significant groundwater storage within the shallow basement. This suggests there is considerable resilience to short-term inter-annual variation in rainfall and recharge, and rural groundwater resources are likely to sustain diffuse, low volume abstraction.  相似文献   

19.

A 22-member ensemble from CMIP6 is used to analyze the projected changes and seasonal behavior in surface air temperature over South America during the twenty-first century. In the future projections, CMIP6 models shown a high dependency to the socioeconomic pathway over each country of South America. The multimodel ensemble projects a continuous increase in the annual mean temperature over South America during the twenty-first century under the three future scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5). Besides, it was possible to identify consistent positive trends across all the models, with values between 0.45 ± 0.05 and 2.05 ± 0.31 °C cy−1 under the historical experiment, however largest trends occurs for the projection periods (near, mid and far future), with values between − 0.87 ± 0.84 to 2.88 ± 0.60 °C cy−1 (SSP1-2.6), 1.41 ± 0.88 to 5.32 ± 0.81 °C cy−1 (SSP2-4.5) and 4.75 ± 0.58 to 8.76 ± 0.74 °C cy−1 (SSP5-8.5) with maximum values at Bolivia, Brasil, Paraguay and Venezuela whilst minimum values for Argentina and Uruguay, regardless of the SSP scenario used. From the seasonal behavior analysis was possible to identify maximum values between January and March whilst minimum between June and July, except in Brasil, Venezuela and Guyana–Surinam–French Guayana, with annual range decreasing as the latidude decreases. By the end of the twenty-first century the annual mean temperature over South america is projected to increase between 0.92–2.11 °C, 0.97–3.37 °C and 1.27–6.14 °C under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 projection scenarios respectively. This projected increase of temperature across the continent will produce negative repercussions in the social, economic and political spheres. The results obtained in this study provide insights about the CMIP6 performance over this region, which can be used to develop adaptation strategies and might be useful for the adaptation to the climate change.

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20.
Knowledge of present‐day communities and ecosystems resembling those reconstructed from the fossil record can help improve our understanding of historical distribution patterns and species composition of past communities. Here, we use a unique data set of 570 plots explored for vascular plant and 315 for land‐snail assemblages located along a 650‐km‐long transect running across a steep climatic gradient in the Russian Altai Mountains and their foothills in southern Siberia. We analysed climatic and habitat requirements of modern populations for eight land‐snail and 16 vascular plant species that are considered characteristic of the full‐glacial environment of central Europe based on (i) fossil evidence from loess deposits (snails) or (ii) refugial patterns of their modern distributions (plants). The analysis yielded consistent predictions of the full‐glacial central European climate derived from both snail and plant populations. We found that the distribution of these 24 species was limited to the areas with mean annual temperature varying from ?6.7 to 3.4 °C (median ?2.5 °C) and with total annual precipitation varying from 137 to 593 mm (median 283 mm). In both groups there were species limited to areas with colder and drier macroclimates (e.g. snails Columella columella and Pupilla loessica, and plants Kobresia myosuroides and Krascheninnikovia ceratoides), whereas other species preferred areas with relatively warmer and/or moister macroclimates (e.g. snails Pupilla turcmenica and P. alpicola, and plants Artemisia laciniata and Carex capillaris). Analysis of climatic conditions also indicated that distributional shifts of the studied species during the Pleistocene/Holocene transition were closely related to their climatic tolerances. Our results suggest that the habitat requirements of southern Siberian populations can provide realistic insights into the reconstruction of Eurasian, especially central European, glacial environments. Data obtained from modern populations also highlight the importance of wet habitats as refugia in the generally dry full‐glacial landscape.  相似文献   

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