共查询到10条相似文献，搜索用时 125 毫秒
1.
Domain configuration and several physical parameterization settings such as planetary boundary layer, cumulus convection, and ocean–atmosphere surface flux parameterizations can play significant roles in numerical prediction of tropical cyclones. The present study focuses to improve the prediction of the TC Gonu by investigating the sensitivity of simulations to mentioned configurations with the Advanced Hurricane WRF model. The experiments for domain design sensitivity with 27 km resolution has been shown moving the domains towards the east improve the results, due to better account for the large-scale process. The fixed and movable nests on a 9-km grid were considered separately within the coarse domain and their results showed that despite salient improvement in simulated intensity, an accuracy reduction in simulated track was observed. Increasing horizontal resolution to 3 km incredibly reduced the simulated intensity accuracy when compared to 27 km resolution. Thereafter, different initial conditions were experimented and the results have shown that the cyclone of 1000 hPa sea level pressure is the best simulation initial condition in predicting the track and intensity for cyclone Gonu. The sensitivity of simulations to ocean–atmosphere surface-flux parameterizations on a 9-km grid showed the combination of ‘Donelan scheme’ for momentum exchanges along with ‘Large and Pond scheme’ for heat and moisture exchanges provide the best prediction for cyclone Gonu intensity. The combination of YSU and MYJ PBL scheme with KF convection for prediction of track and the combination of YSU PBL scheme with KF convection for prediction of intensity are found to have better performance than the other combinations. These 22 sensitivity experiments also implicitly lead us to the conclusion that each particular forecast aspect of TC (e.g., track, intensity, etc.) will require its own special design. 相似文献
2.
In this paper, the performance of a high-resolution mesoscale model for the prediction of severe tropical cyclones over the Bay of Bengal during 2007?C2010 (Sidr, Nargis, Aila, and Laila) is discussed. The advanced Weather Research Forecast (WRF) modeling system (ARW core) is used with a combination of Yonsei University PBL schemes, Kain-Fritsch cumulus parameterization, and Ferrier cloud microphysics schemes for the simulations. The initial and boundary conditions for the simulations are derived from global operational analysis and forecast products of the National Center for Environmental Prediction-Global Forecast System (NCEP-GFS) available at 1°lon/lat resolution. The simulation results of the extreme weather parameters such as heavy rainfall, strong wind and track of those four severe cyclones, are critically evaluated and discussed by comparing with the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) estimated values. The simulations of the cyclones reveal that the cyclone track, intensity, and time of landfall are reasonably well simulated by the model. The mean track error at the time of landfall of the cyclone is 98?km, in which the minimum error was found to be for the cyclone Nargis (22?km) and maximum error for the cyclone Laila (304?km). The landfall time of all the cyclones is also fairly simulated by the model. The distribution and intensity of rainfall are well simulated by the model as well and were comparable with the TRMM estimates. 相似文献
3.
This study investigates the effects of various combinations of the planetary boundary layer (PBL) schemes and the microphysics schemes on the numerical forecasting of tropical cyclones (TCs). Using different combinations of three PBL schemes (YSU, MYJ and MYNN2) and four microphysics schemes (Ferrier, Goddard, WSM6 and Lin), a number of experiments are carried out for five landed TCs in the South China Sea during 2012. Results show that the combination of the YSU and Ferrier schemes performs the best for the TC track forecasting, although it does not perform the best for the forecast of precipitation. Further analysis reveals that the best performance of the track forecast by the combination of the YSU and Ferrier schemes mainly attributes to a more accurate steering flow as well as TC wind structure produced by this combination. These results provide a valuable reference to the operational numerical forecasting of TC tracks in the future. 相似文献
4.
Prediction of the track and intensity of tropical cyclones is one of the most challenging problems in numerical weather prediction (NWP). The chief objective of this study is to investigate the performance of different cumulus convection and planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterization schemes in the simulation of tropical cyclones over the Bay of Bengal. For this purpose, two severe cyclonic storms are simulated with two PBL and four convection schemes using non-hydrostatic version of MM5 modeling system. Several important model simulated fields including sea level pressure, horizontal wind and precipitation are compared with the corresponding verification analysis/observation. The track of the cyclones in the simulation and analysis are compared with the best-fit track provided by India Meteorological Department (IMD). The Hong-Pan PBL scheme (as implemented in NCAR Medium Range Forecast (MRF) model) in combination with Grell (or Betts-Miller) cumulus convection scheme is found to perform better than the other combinations of schemes used in this study. Though it is expected that radiative processes may not have pronounced effect in short-range forecasts, an attempt is made to calibrate the model with respect to the two radiation parameterization schemes used in the study. And the results indicate that radiation parameterization has noticeable impact on the simulation of tropical cyclones. 相似文献
5.
Ensemble prediction methodology based on variations in physical process parameterizations in tropical cyclone track prediction has been assessed. Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting model with 30-km resolution was used to make 5-day simulation of the movement of Orissa super cyclone (1999), one of the most intense tropical cyclones over the North Indian Ocean. Altogether 36 ensemble members with all possible combinations of three cumulus convection, two planetary boundary layer and six cloud microphysics parameterization schemes were produced. A comparison of individual members indicated that Kain–Fritsch cumulus convection scheme, Mellor–Yamada–Janjic planetary boundary layer scheme and Purdue Lin cloud microphysics scheme showed better performance. The best possible ensemble formulation is identified based on SPREAD and root mean square error (RMSE). While the individual members had track errors ranging from 96–240 km at 24 h to 50–803 km at 120 h, most of the ensemble predictions show significant betterment with mean errors less than 130 km up to 120 h. The convection ensembles had large spread of the cluster, and boundary layer ensembles had significant error disparity, indicating their important roles in the movement of tropical cyclones. Six-member ensemble predictions with cloud microphysics schemes of LIN, WSM5, and WSM6 produce the best predictions with least of RMSE, and large SPREAD indicates the need for inclusion of all possible hydrometeors in the simulation and that six-member ensemble is sufficient to produce the best ensemble prediction of tropical cyclone tracks over Bay of Bengal. 相似文献
6.
Monica Laureano Bozeman Dev Niyogi S. Gopalakrishnan Frank D. Marks Jr. Xuejin Zhang Vijay Tallapragada 《Natural Hazards》2012,63(3):1543-1571
While tropical cyclones (TCs) usually decay after landfall, Tropical Storm Fay (2008) initially developed a storm central eye over South Florida by anomalous intensification overland. Unique to the Florida peninsula are Lake Okeechobee and the Everglades, which may have provided a surface feedback as the TC tracked near these features around the time of peak intensity. Analysis is done with the use of an ensemble model-based approach with the Developmental Testbed Center (DTC) version of the Hurricane WRF (HWRF) model using an outer domain and a storm-centered moving nest with 27- and 9-km grid spacing, respectively. Choice of land surface parameterization and small-scale surface features may influence TC structure, dictate the rate of TC decay, and even the anomalous intensification after landfall in model experiments. Results indicate that the HWRF model track and intensity forecasts are sensitive to three features in the model framework: land surface parameterization, initial boundary conditions, and the choice of planetary boundary layer (PBL) scheme. Land surface parameterizations such as the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) Slab and Noah land surface models (LSMs) dominate the changes in storm track, while initial conditions and PBL schemes cause the largest changes in the TC intensity overland. Land surface heterogeneity in Florida from removing surface features in model simulations shows a small role in the forecast intensity change with no substantial alterations to TC track. 相似文献
7.
In the recent times, several advanced numerical models are utilized for the prediction of the intensity, track and landfall time of a cyclone. Still there are number of issues concerning their prediction and the limitation of numerical models in addressing those issues. The most pertinent question is how intensive a cyclone can become before it makes a landfall and where the cyclone moves under the ambient large-scale flow. In this paper, detailed study has been carried out using Weather Research Forecast model with two boundary schemes to address the above question by considering a recent tropical cyclone in Bay of Bengal region of North Indian Ocean. In addition, the impact of the surface drag effect on the low-level winds and the intensity of the cyclone are also studied. The result reveals that large differences are noted in the ocean surface fluxes between YSU and MYJ with MYJ producing relatively higher fluxes than YSU. It is found that the YSU scheme produced a better simulation for the THANE cyclone in terms of winds, pressure distribution and cloud fractions. Comparison with available observations indicated the characteristics of horizontal divergence, vorticity and vector track positions produced by YSU experiment are more realistic than with MYJ and other experiments. However, when the drag coefficient is changed as 0.5 or 2.0 from the default values, appreciable changes in the surface fluxes are not noticed. A maximum precipitation is reported in YSU as compared to the MYJ PBL scheme for the tropical cyclone THANE. 相似文献
8.
Sensitivity of tropical cyclone intensification to boundary layer and convective processes 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：1
This study examines the role of the parameterization of convection, planetary boundary layer (PBL) and explicit moisture processes
on tropical cyclone intensification. A high-resolution mesoscale model, National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) model MM5,
with two interactive nested domains at resolutions 90 km and 30 km was used to simulate the Orissa Super cyclone, the most
intense Indian cyclone of the past century. The initial fields and time-varying boundary variables and sea surface temperatures
were taken from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) (FNL) one-degree data set. Three categories of sensitivity
experiments were conducted to examine the various schemes of PBL, convection and explicit moisture processes. The results
show that the PBL processes play crucial roles in determining the intensity of the cyclone and that the scheme of Mellor-Yamada
(MY) produces the strongest cyclone. The combination of the parameterization schemes of MY for planetary boundary layer, Kain-Fritsch2
for convection and Mixed-Phase for explicit moisture produced the best simulation in terms of intensity and track. The simulated
cyclone produced a minimum sea level pressure of 930 hPa and a maximum wind of 65 m s−1 as well as all of the characteristics of a mature tropical cyclone with an eye and eye-wall along with a warm core structure.
The model-simulated precipitation intensity and distribution were in good agreement with the observations. The ensemble mean
of all 12 experiments produced reasonable intensity and the best track. 相似文献
9.
边界层参数化影响“梅花”台风的敏感性试验 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
以GRAPES-TCM为试验模式,对1109台风“梅花”进行了36次72 h的预报试验,通过试验分析了2种边界层参数化方案——MRF方案与YSU方案在不同情况下对台风预报的影响.结果显示:“梅花”路径与强度对边界层方案的变化都表现出一定的敏感性,敏感性大小与对流参数化方案、台风的初始强度等因素有关,强度的敏感性比路径更明显;对弱台风的路径与强度,YSU方案的总体预报效果优于MRF方案,对于强台风,2种边界层方案中MRF方案的路径预报效果更好,哪种方案的强度预报效果更好与对流参数化方案有关;无论何种情况,YSU方案预报的“梅花”强度都明显强于MRF方案,YSU方案预报的降水及感热通量与潜热通量总体上大于MRF方案;YSU方案时更多的感热通量和潜热通量与该方案时边界层更强的湍流混合有关,更多的潜热通量导致更多的降水,从而释放更多的潜热,更多的潜热释放以及更多的感热通量导致台风强度更强. 相似文献
10.
Impact of physical parameterization schemes on numerical simulation of super cyclone Gonu 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
The objective of this study is to investigate in detail the sensitivity of cumulus, planetary boundary layer and explicit
cloud microphysics parameterization schemes on intensity and track forecast of super cyclone Gonu (2007) using the Pennsylvania
State University-National Center for Atmospheric Research Fifth-Generation Mesoscale Model (MM5). Three sets of sensitivity
experiments (totally 11 experiments) are conducted to examine the impact of each of the aforementioned parameterization schemes
on the storm’s track and intensity forecast. Convective parameterization schemes (CPS) include Grell (Gr), Betts–Miller (BM)
and updated Kain–Fritsch (KF2); planetary boundary layer (PBL) schemes include Burk–Thompson (BT), Eta Mellor–Yamada (MY)
and the Medium-Range Forecast (MRF); and cloud microphysics parameterization schemes (MPS) comprise Warm Rain (WR), Simple
Ice (SI), Mixed Phase (MP), Goddard Graupel (GG), Reisner Graupel (RG) and Schultz (Sc). The model configuration for CPS and
PBL experiments includes two nested domains (90- and 30-km resolution), and for MPS experiments includes three nested domains
(90-, 30- and 10-km grid resolution). It is found that the forecast track and intensity of the cyclone are most sensitive
to CPS compared to other physical parameterization schemes (i.e., PBL and MPS). The simulated cyclone with Gr scheme has the
least forecast track error, and KF2 scheme has highest intensity. From the results, influence of cumulus convection on steering
flow of the cyclone is evident. It appears that combined effect of midlatitude trough interaction, strength of the anticyclone
and intensity of the storm in each of these model forecasts are responsible for the differences in respective track forecast
of the cyclone. The PBL group of experiments has less influence on the track forecast of the cyclone compared to CPS. However,
we do note a considerable variation in intensity forecast due to variations in PBL schemes. The MY scheme produced reasonably
better forecast within the group with a sustained warm core and better surface wind fields. Finally, results from MPS set
of experiments demonstrate that explicit moisture schemes have profound impact on cyclone intensity and moderate impact on
cyclone track forecast. The storm produced from WR scheme is the most intensive in the group and closer to the observed strength.
The possible reason attributed for this intensification is the combined effect of reduction in cooling tendencies within the
storm core due to the absence of melting process and reduction of water loading in the model due to absence of frozen hydrometeors
in the WR scheme. We also note a good correlation between evolution of frozen condensate and storm intensification rate among
these experiments. It appears that the Sc scheme has some systematic bias and because of that we note a substantial reduction
in the rain water formation in the simulated storm when compared to others within the group. In general, it is noted that
all the sensitivity experiments have a tendency to unrealistically intensify the storm at the later part of the integration
phase. 相似文献