共查询到19条相似文献，搜索用时 140 毫秒
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人均综合用水量方法预测需水量-观察未来社会用水的有效途径 总被引：14，自引：0，他引：14
科学的需水预测是水资源规划和供水工程建设的重要依据.过去,我国水资源规划部门对需水量的预测普遍偏高,造成对水规划和供水工程在不同程度上的误导.1987年,笔者在分析研究国内外预测资料的基础上.提出人均综合用水量加趋势微调方法(以下简称人均用水量法)预测全国需水量,实践证明这方法是有效的,成果是可信的.本文介绍这一创新的预测方法的概念与其应用,与过去有关部门预测成果进行比较,并展望本世纪我国水资源可持续利用的前景,以供水资源规划和供水工程建设部门参考. 相似文献
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以洋溪河-双河区域为研究对象,按逐月用水特征提出研究区分区需水预测成果,以保障河流生态需水为前提,基于“三条红线”相关指标要求,侧重节水减排、总量控制和综合水效最优构建多区域多目标跨区水量优化分配模型,确定研究区水资源四级区以下的水量分配机制。结果表明：基于多目标的分区河网水量优化分配方案能够有效保障总量红线和生态需水的约束,平衡各子区的配水需求;洋溪河-双河区域平水年（50%）、枯水年（75%）地表可供水量能总体满足近（2025年）、远（2030年）期水平年需水要求,但特枯水年（95%）近远期水平年均存在一定缺水,需从周边河道补充水量;月尺度分析显示,方案充分考虑了月尺度下各子区经济需水及河流生态需水,能较好反映水资源的刚性约束,对保障区域整体供水安全、强化水资源精细化管理,提高水资源调控能力具有重要意义。 相似文献
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《水科学进展》编辑部 《水科学进展》2009,20(5):747-754
水资源是基础性的自然资源和战略性的经济资源,是生态与环境的控制性要素.中国人均占有水资源量少,不足2200m3,不足世界人均占有量的1/3.水资源时空分布极为不均,特别是在全球气候变化和大规模经济开发双重因素的交织作用下,中国水资源情势正在发生新的变化.在水资源管理理念上,要加快从供水管理向需水管理转变.为使人们对需水管理有比较全面和深刻的认识,部分专家和学者从各种角度论述了"需水管理"的定义和内涵,认为,需水管理是面向包括人类与自然在内所有用水户的水资源供需平衡的全方位而有序的管理系统工程,对各方面的需水,采取行政、经济、法律和技术等手段和措施,对水资源供需进行平衡与协调,遏制不合理用水需求,提高用水效率和效益,减少水资源短缺对人类社会的威胁,确保水资源可持续利用.简言之,需水管理意为以供定需,供需协调,人水和谐,持续利用. 相似文献
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以2008年为现状年,分析师市水资源的现状及存在问题,以近期,中期、远期规划水平年,对该地区的生活需水量、工农业需水量、生态需水及再生水量进行了预测,并进行了水资源供需平衡分析。结果显示,径流保证率在75%时,规划年中水资源缺水量逐年增加,必然会制约该地区的经济发展。要解决水资源短缺,满足当地经济的可持续发展,必须实施工农业用水结构调整、发展节水农业、跨流域调水等方案。 相似文献
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人口规模结构是决定水资源需求的关键因子,在人口总量负增长的重大变化背景下,中国经济社会需水如何演变直接关系到水资源管理宏观决策。本文通过分析中国人口城乡结构、年龄结构对经济社会需水的影响规律,构建了基于人口特征的需水变化曲线,并在此基础上预测了经济社会需水演变态势及峰值时点。研究结果表明：中国经济社会需水峰值可能出现在2042年,达峰规模约为7 300亿m3;2050年之前,城镇地区需水总量将会持续增加,农村地区需水峰值将于2030年左右出现。经济社会需水规模是决定区域用水特征的边界条件,研究认为在中国经济社会需水还未到达拐点、国际贸易环境动荡加剧的背景下,未来中国供水保障还应该保持一定的弹性和韧性。 相似文献
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本文从水资源系统结构与用户需求分析入手,研究了地表水和地下水模型的耦合方法,构建了水资源目标规划模型,对独山子地区水资源进行了优化配置。研究表明:独山子地区水资源可以满足独山子区与灌区的现状需水要求。独山子区近期、中期、远期全部启动四个水源地供水仍不能满足需水要求,还需要外调水源补充解决,远期外调水已接近可调水资源量;为保证水源地有适量的河水入渗补给,限定了河道引水量,枯水年不能满足灌区的灌溉需水,平水年基本可以满足,丰水年完全能够满足。即使调水后,仍然要节水,提高灌溉效率。 相似文献
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陕北地区水资源需求综合预测及对策研究 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
通阐述水资源需求量在区域经济社会发展中作用的基础上,归纳了区域水资源综合需求预测的方法和模型.针对陕北地区水资源现状及经济社会发展的趋势,合理选择了预测方法,并构建了指标体系,综合预测了陕北地区未来经济社会发展水资源需水量,为区域经济良性发展提供了保障. 相似文献
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通过阐述水资源供求平衡在区域经济社会发展中的作用,归纳了区域水资源供求平衡的方法和模型。针对延安地区水资源现状及经济社会发展的趋势,选择了合理的预测方法,并构建了指标体系,对延安地区未来经济社会发展水资源需水量和供水量进行了预测,在此基础上,提出了平衡区域水资源供需矛盾的措施和对策,为区域经济社会良性发展提供了保障。 相似文献
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Water resources in Egypt are becoming scarce and the demand for clean drinking water supply is one of the most important priorities of the Egyptian government in recent years. Analyzing water use and future demand forecasting is a primitive clue for water demand management. Water in Luxor is used for agricultural, residential, institutional, commercial, and touristic purposes. The results of water use analysis indicated that for the time period from 1983 to 2012, agriculture is the highest consumer of water which reached about 94.76–97.38 % followed by residential water consumption (1.90–3.05 %), institutional water consumption (0.71–1.75 %), and touristic water consumption (0.02–0.43 %), respectively. The future demand forecasting results revealed that the present situation may continue to rise in the next 50 years which will increase the water demand with a water deficit ranging between 15 and 114 MCM/year. To fill the gap between the present water consumption and future residential, institutional, commercial, and touristic water demand, additional municipal facilities, and improvement and management of water supply/demand are needed. To cope with the predicted future water demand, it is recommended to improve the on-farm irrigation, reduce the demand for irrigation water, rationalize the irrigation water use, and enhance the integrated role of water users in integrated water resources management. 相似文献
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大城市实施分质供水的必要性和可行性--以天津市为例 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
随着社会和经济的迅速发展，淡水资源供需矛盾日益突出。当前除须继续加大治污、水环境保护的力度以外，还应从资源水利和环境水利的角度出发，实行分质用水，优水优用，污水巧用，差水改用，加速构筑多层次、多系统的立体供水网络。分质供水已有2000年的历史，现代社会已有成熟技术和实践经验，社会对分质供水亦有需求，故而分质供水是“资源型”缺水城市解决水资源短缺的必由之路。 相似文献
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A survey of household domestic water consumption patterns in rural semi-arid village, India 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
In India, as a result of development, the demand for water is increasing both in urban and rural areas. This may increase tensions and disputes over sharing of water resources. For water demand management, it is crucial to know the details of actual water use on a household level. Therefore, this paper explores the pattern of domestic water consumption in semi-arid Dhani Mohabbatpur village of Hisar district in Haryana state of India, to improve the understanding of how local communities in the region relate to water, based on questionnaires and interview surveys of 763 households. The study has examined the households daily and activity wise water consumption, sources, quality, duration, frequency of water supply, distance of different sources and the level of awareness about rainwater harvesting. Results of the study revealed that the daily average water consumption for the village was found to be 117.0 l per person per capita per day (SD = 35.8). Washing of clothes consumes the highest amount of water, whereas 85 % of the households are using government water supplies with very safe water quality. However, 77 % households are not satisfied with duration of water supply and 86 % do not have awareness about rainwater harvesting technology. This needs to be addressed immediately by changing public perception through media and by organizing public awareness programs. It is hoped that the results of the study would benefit the policy and planning executives in India in optimizing the existing water resources for rural development. 相似文献
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H. M. Oudshoorn 《GeoJournal》1997,42(1):27-38
An apparent abundance of water on earth would indicate that the quantity of water available for human use is meeting the needs of society. However, recent investigations conclude that there are many areas where the demands are growing beyond water availability and problems arise from intensive withdrawals, mismanagement, or simply low availability. Water resources planners in the next century are very likely to encounter a new and different kind of scarcity; a scarcity that cannot be solved by engineering measures but calls for finding an intricate balance between the interests of a number of actors involved. Water demand is no longer a vital necessity but is one of the claims to be subjected to (political) decision making. Managing the demand of water in the framework of the objectives of a national socio-economic development plan is a challenge in the water planning process. Many technical, legislative and institutional tools are available to support this process. Such planning requires strong mechanisms and political involvement at the national level and a strong social support at the local level. 相似文献
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Progress in Researches on Ensemble Forecasting of Extreme Weather Based on Numerical Models 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
Under the background of climate change, extreme weather events (e.g., heavy rainfall, heat wave, and cold damage) in China have been occurring more frequently with an increasing trend of induced meteorological disasters. Therefore, it is of great importance to carry out research on forecasting of extreme weather. This paper systematically reviewed the primary methodology of extreme weather forecast, current status in development of ensemble weather forecasting based on numerical models and their applications to forecast of extreme weather, as well as progress in approaches for correcting ensemble probabilistic forecast. Nowadays, the forecasting of extreme weather has been generally dominated by methodology using dynamical models. That is to say, the dynamical forecasting methods based on ensemble probabilistic forecast information have become prevailing in current operational extreme weather forecast worldwide. It can be clearly found that the current major directions of research and development in this field are the application of ensemble forecasts based on numerical models to forecasting of extreme weather, and its improvement through bias correction of ensemble probabilistic forecast. Based on a relatively comprehensive review in this paper, some suggestions with respect to development of extreme weather forecast in future were further given in terms of the issues of how to propose effective approaches on improving level of identification and forecasting of extreme events. 相似文献
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辽河油田以开采上第三系地下水为主，已出现降落漏斗、水质恶化及咸水入侵等问题。文章应用Visual MODFLOW模型，建立了地下水流数值模拟模型，对不同开采方案下的地下水动态变化进行了预测和分析，确定了最佳开采量和最优开采布局。建议调减开采量和调整地下水开采布局以实现辽河油田地区水资源可持续利用。 相似文献