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区域中尺度模式云微物理参数化方案特征及其在中国的适用性 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
云微物理参数化方案在数值模式中起着重要的作用,是影响数值天气预报和气候预测准确性的最大因素。系统回顾了中尺度数值模式中云微物理参数化方案的研究进展,并统计分析了最近十余年云微物理参数化方案在中国范围内的敏感性试验研究成果。Lin方案和Rutledge-Hobbs方案奠定了中尺度模式中云微物理参数化方案的基础,其他方案都是直接或间接在这2个方案的基础上从多方面改进而形成的。这些改进主要体现在:①水凝物粒子分类数目;②冰核活化;③粒子谱分布描述函数;④粒子谱截距的取值;⑤粒子间相互转换阈值大小的设定。中国范围内云微物理参数化方案敏感性试验研究成果统计表明,使用WRF模式中Lin方案的模拟效果较好,MM5模式采用Goddard和Reisner方案效果较好。 相似文献
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大气波导是对流层中具有异常大气折射率梯度的大气层,对于评估和预测电磁波传播和海上探测通信系统等具有重要的科学意义和应用价值.以海上发生的大气波导类型为线索总结了与大气波导相关的研究方法.在蒸发波导研究中以相似理论为基础,开发蒸发波导诊断模型为重点,开展区域海域适应性研究;海上悬空波导和表面波导从早期的定性分析到目前精确定量研究过程中,中尺度数值模式逐渐成为极其重要的研究手段,不仅提高了特定天气过程中大气波导模拟预测精度,而且在此基础上开展区域大气波导环境研究,分析其出现规律、气候原因等.针对海上大气波导研究现状,借鉴气象上的手段和技术,开展海上水文气象调查和电波传播实验,结合中尺度数值模式和海气耦合模式,采用同化技术和集合预报等手段,提高海上低空大气波导量化精度. 相似文献
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西风与季风扰动对黑河流域降水影响的数值模拟 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
利用中尺度天气模式WRF V2.2进行了两组风场的敏感性试验,分别模拟了西风与季风变化对黑河流域降水的影响.通过对大气环流、水汽输送、水汽辐合以及垂直上升运动的分析得出以下结论:西风与季风对黑河流域降水的影响方式不同,西风带直接作用于黑河流域,影响其降水,而季风则是通过对西风的调整间接影响黑河流域降水;西风与季风变化对黑河流域降水的影响范围不同,西风增强后,黑河流域南部山区降水落区西移,降水增加,最大值中心偏西北;季风增强后,黑河流域南部山区降水落区向东南移,降水增加,最大值中心偏东南.与其它量相比,黑河流域降水与垂直速度的对应关系最好. 相似文献
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区域海气耦合模式研究进展 总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4
区域海气耦合模式是进行区域尺度气候模拟和预估的重要工具,近年来得到快速发展。在阐述区域海气耦合过程重要性的基础上,对当今国内外主要的区域海气耦合模式研究进展进行总结,归纳区域海气耦合模拟所关注的核心科学问题,介绍区域海气耦合模式的技术特点。发展基于耦合器且无通量订正的区域海气耦合模式是区域海气耦合模式发展的主流方向。当前国际上区域海气耦合模拟所关注的主要科学问题,包括区域海气耦合模式对区域海洋过程的模拟、区域海气耦合模式对区域大气过程的模拟、亚洲—西北太平洋季风模拟及其耦合模拟海表面温度(SST)冷偏差问题、热带海气相互作用过程模拟,以及区域海气耦合模式对未来气候变化的预估研究等。对上述5个方面科学问题的研究思路和主要科学结论进行总结,重点关注针对亚洲—西北太平洋季风区的区域海气耦合模拟研究,对区域海气耦合过程改进亚洲—西北太平洋地区降水模拟的物理机制,及在该区域模拟SST冷偏差的成因亦进行相关归纳和总结。最后提出当前区域海气耦合模拟亟待解决的关键科学问题。 相似文献
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在全球变暖的背景下,南极已成为全球气候变化研究的热点,然而其区域内的观测站点稀疏且缺乏较长的时间序列,限制了人们对南极气候变化机制的分析与理解。Polar WRF作为目前最先进的极地区域气候模型之一,有力弥补了观测资料不足的缺陷,然而模式存在误差,在应用之前有必要对其定量评估。本文利用Polar WRF3.9.1对2004-2013年南极冰盖2m气温、10m风速和地表气压进行了数值模拟,并与28个气象站数据进行了对比分析,结果表明:模式对气温的模拟值在东南极沿岸偏低,在内陆偏高,在南极半岛既存在冷偏差也存在暖偏差,而对风速和气压的模拟整体呈高估。而从均方根误差和平均绝对误差的空间分布来看,模式对气温和气压的模拟结果在东南极沿岸的精度高于内陆和南极半岛,而风速则在内陆的精度要高于沿岸地区。但总体来说模拟效果较为理想,在2004-2013年间气温、风速、气压的模拟值的变化趋势与实测值的变化趋势相同。模式模拟的年平均2m气温和近地面气压在所有站点都通过了α=0.1的显著性检验,季节误差和月误差整体较小,且所有月份的相关系数都分别大于0.90与0.79。模式对10m风速的模拟精度要略低,部分沿岸站点的年平均误差超过了7.5m·s^(-1),但整体而言其在四季和各个月份的相关性均大于0.5且误差小于4.5m·s^(-1)。虽然Polar WRF作为天气模式,但在模拟长时间尺度的气候方面仍然表现较好。 相似文献
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对移植欧洲高分辨率有限区数值模式(HIRLAM)在我国的适用性进行了研究,解决了青藏高原对高分辨率欧洲模式引入中所造成的问题。利用该模式模拟了1991年江淮流域严重洪涝时期一次梅雨暴雨过程的中尺度特征,并揭示了青藏高原涡与西南涡的不同特点及其对形成特大暴雨中尺度系统的影响。这对于进一步了解梅雨暴雨的形成和演变机理及其预报等有一定意义,并具有广泛的应用前景。 相似文献
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四川盆地降水日变化特征分析和个例模拟 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
利用台站观测降水资料,分析四川盆地及周边地区降水分布和日变化特征,得到以下结论:四川地区降水存在2个高值中心,均位于盆地周围的山地;盆地降水"夜雨"特征明显;川西高原降水峰值以午夜前降水量的贡献为主;盆中与盆地西南边缘山地的降水峰值由夜间降水量与降水频率共同作用;盆地东北边缘的山地是午前降水频率与后半夜的降水量均有贡献。其次,结合WRF模式的数值试验,对2008年9月23～24日发生在盆地的夜间暴雨过程进行模拟研究和综合分析。结果表明WRF模式较好地模拟了此次天气过程降水的空间分布和日变化规律,通过分析模拟的环流场与温湿场发现,夜雨的形成与大尺度环流场的影响和地形强迫关系密切。 相似文献
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东亚地区区域气候模拟的研究进展 总被引：3，自引：2，他引：3
由于大气环流模式对东亚地区区域气候特征的模拟存在很大不足，采用区域气候模式模拟该地区特殊的季风气候成为目前发展的一个重要研究方向，并取得了显著的研究进展。通过回顾当前东亚地区区域气候模拟的现状，表明大部分区域气候模式都不同程度地模拟出了东亚季风区持续性洪涝现象的大尺度环流特征和演变过程，再现了东亚各主要气候区降水的年际、季节和季节内变化及主要雨带的季节进退和降水的时空演变特征。但是，大部分模式没能很好地模拟出大尺度特征的强度和量值，模拟的温度和降水存在系统性偏差。原因分析表明，进一步完善和改进区域气候模式的物理过程参数化方案及动力框架可以改善模拟效果。最后对区域气候模式未来的发展给出展望。 相似文献
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The article aims to test the sensitivity of high-resolution mesoscale atmospheric model to fairly reproduce atmospheric processes that were present during the Boothbay Harbor meteotsunami on 28 October 2008. The simulations were performed by the Weather and Research Forecasting (WRF) model at 1-km horizontal grid spacing by varying initial conditions (ICs) and lateral boundary conditions (LBCs), nesting strategy, simulation lead time and microphysics and convective parameterizations. It seems that the simulations that used higher-resolution IC and LBC were more successful in reproduction of precipitation zone and surface pressure oscillations caused by internal gravity waves observed during the event. The results were very sensitive to the simulation lead time and to the choice of convective parameterization, while the choice of microphysics parameterization and the type of nesting strategy (one-way or two-way) was less important for reproducibility of the event. The success of the WRF model appears limited to very short-range forecasting, most advanced parameterizations, and very high-resolution grid spacing; therefore, the applicability of present atmospheric mesoscale models to future operational meteotsunami warning systems still has a lot of room for improvements. 相似文献
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Ping Zhu 《Natural Hazards》2008,47(3):577-591
Hurricane wind damage constitutes the largest percentage of catastrophic insured losses in the US. Yet the complicated wind
structures and their changes are not fully understood and, thus, have not been considered in current risk catastrophic models.
To obtain realistic landfall hurricane surface winds, a large eddy simulation (LES) framework in a weather forecasting mode
has been developed from a multiple nested Weather Research & Forecasting (WRF) model to explicitly simulate a spectrum of
scales from large-scale background flow, hurricane vortex, mesoscale organizations, down to fine-scale turbulent eddies in
a unified system. The unique WRF-LES enables the high resolution data to be generated in a realistic environment as a hurricane
evolves. In this paper, a simulation of the landfalling Hurricane Katrina is presented to demonstrate various features of
the WRF-LES. It shows that the localized damaging winds are caused by the large eddy circulations generated in the hurricane
boundary layer. With a sufficient computational power, WRF-LES has the potential to be developed into the next generation
operational public wind-field model for hurricane wind damage mitigation. 相似文献
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Shivani Shah B. M. Rao Prashant Kumar P. K. Pal 《Journal of Earth System Science》2010,119(6):775-781
Since the beginning of the summer monsoon 2009, experimental mesoscale weather forecasts in real time are being generated
using WRF model by the Meteorology and Oceanography Group at the Space Applications Centre (ISRO) and are disseminated through
MOSDAC () to various users. To begin with, the 12 h, 24 h and 48 h forecasts for the western India region are made available. A study
is undertaken to comprehensively assess the cloudiness prediction performance of WRF model. The evaluations have been made
over the three months period during monsoon 2009. INSAT cloud imagery data has been used as a reference for these evaluations.
The verification strategy includes computation of various skill scores. It is seen that probability of detection (POD) of
cloud is 84% and the false alarm rate (FAR) is around 18%. It is hoped that this assessment will provide information on the
use of these forecasts in various applications. 相似文献
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Sammaneh Negah Amir-Hussain Mesakatee Sohrab Hajjam Ali Kamali 《Arabian Journal of Geosciences》2016,9(15):649
For the very first time, the mesoscale circulation patterns and synoptic-dynamic structure of the atmospheric systems that led to the dust emission to the south coast region of Caspian Sea (SCRCS) were identified and classified using the region synoptic stations’ observations of 2005–2013. Satellite measurements and images, NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, and Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model coupled with Chemistry (WRF-CHEM) model products were also used in this study. Results showed that in 49 % of cases, cyclonic circulations over the Middle East deserts were the main transporter of dust particles into the atmosphere where then transferred to the SCRCS by southerly winds over the Alborz mountains in the lower troposphere and by westerly waves in the middle and upper troposphere. During the warm seasons, the surface heating lead to the development of mesoscale thermal low pressures over the hot deserts on the eastern regions of the Caspian Sea, like Turkmenistan and Qura Qum. Those heat lows were responsible for the 38 % of the occurred events. Turbulence and instabilities in the lower troposphere were identified as the second important dust emitter to the atmosphere where those dust particles transported to the SCRCS with the strong northeasterly wind. The third pattern by 13 % of cases was belonging to the mesoscale thermal low pressure that was developed over the arid regions of Iran like Dasht-é-Kavir. Because of the nature of the turbulence in the lower troposphere and heat lows, the ascent of dust particles by these two mechanisms was limited to a shallow layer in the troposphere. The results of simulation with the WRF-CHEM model, analysis of moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) images, and spatial zoning of atmospheric optical depth (AOD) confirmed the results of the synoptic study. 相似文献
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区域气候模式在中国西北地区气温和降水长时间序列模拟的误差分析 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
气温和降水微小的变化都可能引起中国西北地区脆弱生态环境空间格局剧烈变化.由于西北地区气象站点分布稀疏,站点观测结果难于完全代表西北地区复杂地貌的气象要素空间分布格局.区域气候模式模拟可以弥补现有观测资料的不足,但模式模拟存在的误差,往往制约着西北区域气候变化评估工作.本文在CN05格点数据和站点数据基础上,从空间格局、极值模拟等方面对高分辨率WRF模式数据气温和降水模拟精度进行评估,假定偏差恒定基础上,使用分类回归树模型建立偏差预测模型.结果表明:CN05数据和WRF模式多年年平均气温和多年平均年降水数据空间格局基本一致,但WRF模式结果空间格局更加细致.WRF模式结果在山区和湖泊地区降水偏高估,气温和降水距平在新疆地区相对于其他地区变化较为一致;95%分位数的降水在甘肃和新疆地区模拟结果好于宁夏、青海和陕西;5%和95%分位数气温,WRF模式大部分站点表现为暖偏差,而CN05数据表现为冷偏差;不同的地貌单元区域气温和降水的偏差时间序列存在一定的相关性.在西北五省区气温和降水的分类树模型中,由于高程和地形复杂度对偏差预测模型影响较大,无法在整个西北地区建立统一的误差预测模型. 相似文献
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Sensitivity of MM5 and WRF mesoscale model predictions of surface winds in a typhoon to planetary boundary layer parameterizations 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1
Sea surface winds and coastal winds, which have a significant influence on the ocean environment, are very difficult to predict.
Although most planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterizations have demonstrated the capability to represent many meteorological
phenomena, little attention has been paid to the precise prediction of winds at the lowest PBL level. In this study, the ability
to simulate sea winds of two widely used mesoscale models, fifth-generation mesoscale model (MM5) and weather research and
forecasting model (WRF), were compared. In addition, PBL sensitivity experiments were performed using Medium-Range Forecasts
(MRF), Eta, Blackadar, Yonsei University (YSU), and Mellor–Yamada–Janjic (MYJ) during Typhoon Ewiniar in 2006 to investigate
the optimal PBL parameterizations for predicting sea winds accurately. The horizontal distributions of winds were analyzed
to discover the spatial features. The time-series analysis of wind speed from five sensitivity experimental cases was compared
by correlation analysis with surface observations. For the verification of sea surface winds, QuikSCAT satellite 10-m daily
mean wind data were used in root-mean-square error (RMSE) and bias error (BE) analysis. The MRF PBL using MM5 produced relatively
smaller wind speeds, whereas YSU and MYJ using WRF produced relatively greater wind speeds. The hourly surface observations
revealed increasingly strong winds after 0300 UTC, July 10, with most of the experiments reproducing observations reliably.
YSU and MYJ using WRF showed the best agreements with observations. However, MRF using MM5 demonstrated underestimated winds.
The conclusions from the correlation analysis and the RMSE and BE analysis were compatible with the above-mentioned results.
However, some shortcomings were identified in the improvements of wind prediction. The data assimilation of topographical
data and asynoptic observations along coast lines and satellite data in sparsely observed ocean areas should make it possible
to improve the accuracy of sea surface wind predictions. 相似文献
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Someshwar Das Raghavendra Ashrit Gopal Raman Iyengar Saji Mohandas M. Das Gupta John P. George E. N. Rajagopal Surya Kanti Dutta 《Journal of Earth System Science》2008,117(5):603-620
Performance of four mesoscale models namely, the MM5, ETA, RSM and WRF, run at NCMRWF for short range weather forecasting has been examined during monsoon-2006. Evaluation is carried out based upon comparisons between observations and day-1 and day-3 forecasts of wind, temperature, specific humidity, geopotential height, rainfall, systematic errors, root mean square errors and specific events like the monsoon depressions.It is very difficult to address the question of which model performs best over the Indian region? An honest answer is ‘none’. Perhaps an ensemble approach would be the best. However, if we must make a final verdict, it can be stated that in general, (i) the WRF is able to produce best All India rainfall prediction compared to observations in the day-1 forecast and, the MM5 is able to produce best All India rainfall forecasts in day-3, but ETA and RSM are able to depict the best distribution of rainfall maxima along the west coast of India, (ii) the MM5 is able to produce least RMSE of wind and geopotential fields at most of the time, and (iii) the RSM is able to produce least errors in the day-1 forecasts of the tracks, while the ETA model produces least errors in the day-3 forecasts. 相似文献
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In this paper, the performance of a high-resolution mesoscale model for the prediction of severe tropical cyclones over the Bay of Bengal during 2007?C2010 (Sidr, Nargis, Aila, and Laila) is discussed. The advanced Weather Research Forecast (WRF) modeling system (ARW core) is used with a combination of Yonsei University PBL schemes, Kain-Fritsch cumulus parameterization, and Ferrier cloud microphysics schemes for the simulations. The initial and boundary conditions for the simulations are derived from global operational analysis and forecast products of the National Center for Environmental Prediction-Global Forecast System (NCEP-GFS) available at 1°lon/lat resolution. The simulation results of the extreme weather parameters such as heavy rainfall, strong wind and track of those four severe cyclones, are critically evaluated and discussed by comparing with the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) estimated values. The simulations of the cyclones reveal that the cyclone track, intensity, and time of landfall are reasonably well simulated by the model. The mean track error at the time of landfall of the cyclone is 98?km, in which the minimum error was found to be for the cyclone Nargis (22?km) and maximum error for the cyclone Laila (304?km). The landfall time of all the cyclones is also fairly simulated by the model. The distribution and intensity of rainfall are well simulated by the model as well and were comparable with the TRMM estimates. 相似文献